System play has changed the way i wager (forever?)

[SportSavant]

Wow...I just read this one after seeing Journey quote it. I would be willing to bet you a substantial amount of money that you can't do this betting 1 unit per play.

The problem is, even if he is able to acheive +62 in one year, it still doesnt mean much, do it 5 years in a row, then ya, of course I would be impressed.

Problem with SSI, is he had abandoned countless systems in the past when they go south, which I guess is smart as there is no point trying to catch a falling knife, however, is the readon why many people are curious as to wether or not he will see this system through to the end of the year.

 

[SSI]

Listen ive allocated $5,000 for the mlb season.. im going to stick with my ml underdog system until i lose it all........ dont think that will happen...

why can i guarantee (+62 units) or better......... because ive done hours of research into this....... no reason things are going to change.....

i know that ive tried several systems on here and some have not worked... im smart enough to realize this and abandon them before i lose much (if any) money.......

this one is different and believe me, it will be my last here on the RX...

i simply dont have the time to cap any longer, nor the desire........ i really dont even watch many games these days........

with this system, i wont have too.............. wont need to know one players name,,,,,,,,,,, and i can run an entire card and turn the wagers in, in less than 30 minutes.......

my problem (and where you can benefit) is line shopping..... i dont have the time or Outs to get the best line, most of the time.......

Like i said, i want all the naysayers and doubters to check in from time to time...... i promise i wont leave unless i go down (-50 units).......

been back doing the nba for 14 days now: 23-24 (+10.07 units)... so you see this is running a little ahead.......... i plan on making a minimum of 2 units per week, in any sport that i play...... for now its the nba and baseball.....

no way ill miss........... the more volume of plays that i have, the more units ill make........... kinda works in reverse of what you may expect..... i can take the books advantage from them.......

clip, we can discuss your offer at a later date....... couple of weeks into the baseball season and i want you to ask me again but you may have changed your mind by then......

btw, today was just another average day........ i had 10 plays and went 5-5...... and as you know,,,,,,,,,, 5-5 with the ml dogs, makes you money.....

 

[Journeyman]

SSI my friend, you obviously put a lot of time into yoursystems, I hope it works out, I hope you keep posting it as well....sometimes it seems u give up too quick after starting...It can be hard for anyone planning to follow

 

[jasin4000]

whats the point of this thread? I just don't understand why he has to tout his system before this upcoming MLB season. Especially in the offshore forum, like its a big yell to everyone that your going to profit and blah blah.

And what if you dont? Why make all this drama??

 

[Brooklynbomber]

1) very few systems work year after year in any given sport..maybe 1 out of 5000 succeed. again year after year the key.

2) SSI is right..capping...watching the games is a waste of time. the eyes deceive, having an opinion is your worst enemy.

3) for any system to be successful is alot of work...constant tweaking etc..what works one month/year loses the next. to say you are going to sit back and watch the cash roll in is foolish....but again a system in some sorts imho is the way to go. just lots of work. GL

 

[SHACK]

time will tell. how's the good ole' quitfactor doing these days. everyone swore it was the best at one point in time. best of luck though. the new ball is what my buddy attributed the quitfactor not working anymore to. lol.

 

[SSI]

shack, ive never been fond of the martingale approach....

plays are up for monday...

ill be around Jman, unless i lose 5 dimes.......

short the sp from 1438.00

 

[Iceman]

Here is my take:

First off SSI is a great guy, that is not a question. He has alot of passion for this and because of that reason he will most likely find a way to win. If someone thinks he wont they should book his bets.


Here is my problem with this and I am sure most will disagree but I feel more strong about this than ever. Betting without line shopping is almost impossibile to beat longterm. This the whole key. I almost bet it doesnt matter what team you pick in baseball (or any sport for that matter) as long as you are getting 10 cents better on average than you would be just cherry picking games that you capped than you will win. I know this is hard for people to comprehend or they dont agree but take all your losses last year for baseball season and subtract 10 cents (which is actually a tad high) on every game. Also add 10 cents on every winner and you will come out way way ahead.

Like I said this works with any sport. I do it with hoops every day and have made 50+ units 3 months in a row (betting 1-2 units a game). Have not had a losing sport 7 months. Your edge will be 2-5% because you are getting lines that are -120 for -110. Once you bet 500+ bets like this you will be ahead. I dont watch 1 minute of hoops a nite, nor do I care to. When I sit down to bet I have no preconceived ideas of whom or why I want to bet a team. Talk about little to no stress.

I once heard on another forum that Pinny did a study of all the people that beat them and added 10 cents (it may have been lower) to every loss on every bet these people lost and every winning bettor went from a winner to a loser.

If you found lines a dime better than Pinny on any type baseball bet (example -132/+122 at Pinny and you got Favorite -122 or lower or dog +132 or higher) you will eventually win. It is that simple. Just make sure you are checking at the right times each day. You would have to spend the last hour or so before game time doing this. If you can beat widely avaibile lines than more power to you but this is by far your best shot and disregarding line shopping (even in baseball) will come back to bite you in the ass.

I know SSI is talking about not spending time but the way I am talking about can be done with ZERO capping if you have the right outs and bet the right time of the day. It is all math. It will not matter what team you bet. People just dont understand that. Like Sean1 has posted and I say this all the time, I dont even look at the team names anymore, they are just bascially numbers on a screen to me. Now if you are betting for fun than cap and and enjoy, I see nothing wrong with that but much like others I am very skeptical to think someone can just bet with no regard for the lineshopping and EVENTUALLY win. Lineshopping means everything. Until bettors look at this in the true longterm sense they will not agree with this statement.

Sorry if I sound like I am coming across as a know it all as this is not my intentions but feel very strongly as to what I am saying as giving you the best chance to win, with the least stress, and zero capping and a little more time commitment but who cares as you will be paid ALOT for the extra time and that makes it all worth it.

Either way good luck SSI!!!!

 

[SportSavant]

why can i guarantee (+62 units) or better......... because ive done hours of research into this....... no reason things are going to change.....

The problem is, things do change, linesmakers do adjust, things are different from year to year.

One obvious example is MLB underdog lines in pre-season..... years ago you would see tons of big ML dogs in pre-season, now, linesmakers have adjusted and most games are very close to a pk em.

Even regular season ML dogs seem much less generous than they used to be, I beleive the reason for this, is that the general public has become much more fond of betting the underdog due to forums like these, hence, the bookies adjust.
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I do agree with SSI on one thing, with all the systems he has posted in the past, it makes perfect sense that he abandoned them, as there is no sense continuing them if they are not working or losing.

The problem this generates, however, is obviously credibility.... Its kind of like the boy who cried wolf..... when there really was a wolf, nobody believed it as he had cried wolf so many other times.

 

[Journeyman]

Ice you are saying all your wagers are atleast 10 cents better than Pinny and you have all these wagers nightly?

 

[Iceman]

Ice you are saying all your wagers are atleast 10 cents better than Pinny and you have all these wagers nightly?

on average yes. So for example if the Pistons are -8 -120 at Pinny than I look for a -8 -110 at another book. This is the same thing we have talked about in the past. These are also find in more obscure places like halfimes, 1st half totals, etc..

These lines are scalpable with Pinny numbers. It is hard for others to see these because of the whole baseball moneyline thing and not pointspread but yes this is what I am looking for and finding.

 

[SSI]

Ice, is exactly right............ my problem is, not enough time or outs, or desire for that matter..

what i need to do is hire someone to lineshop for me.......... this is why, i used to used the term "business partners".....

i would supply the plays and it would be someones else's job to get me the best lines.......

ive never doubted that.....

also what Ice is doing will work over the long haul........ but requires much more time that im willing to give.......

trading is more important to me (now) than sports wagering is........

ive got a profitable system, thats going to make money in the long run... i am trying to clear around $1000 per month out of what im doing..... if i can accomplish that, i can fly under the radar, so to speak........

 

[SportSavant]

on average yes. So for example if the Pistons are -8 -120 at Pinny than I look for a -8 -110 at another book. This is the same thing we have talked about in the past. These are also find in more obscure places like halfimes, 1st half totals, etc..

These lines are scalpable with Pinny numbers. It is hard for others to see these because of the whole baseball moneyline thing and not pointspread but yes this is what I am looking for and finding.

how do u accont for the fact that Pinny may have a team at -8 -110 one second, and the next second after a refresh it is -8 +105..... sometimes it goes back and forth forever?

 

[SportSavant]

In general, I completely agree with what Iceman said and cap in a very similar way,

except for NHL, CFL and NFL where I do put some 'traditional capping' in play in combination with the line shopping.

 

[Journeyman]

how do u accont for the fact that Pinny may have a team at -8 -110 one second, and the next second after a refresh it is -8 +105..... sometimes it goes back and forth forever?

This is what I was about to ask...especially HT's

 

[Journeyman]

In general, I completely agree with what Iceman said and cap in a very similar way,

except for NHL, CFL and NFL where I do put some 'traditional capping' in play in combination with the line shopping.

Very true, there are very few of us who can actually cap games, understand what to look for and make a play at the half and win more than we lose.

:drink: thankfully I am one of them.

 

[SportSavant]

one thing should also be noted, Lineshopping for value is one way to 'cap' and be succesful, I agree with Iceman.

But it is not the ONLY way I dont think.....

that being said, line shopping to some degree is imperative (IMO), if you count entirely on traditional capping, and through line shopping out the window by only having one or two outs.... then I think ur fucked (unless those two outs are exchanges)

 

[Iceman]

how do u accont for the fact that Pinny may have a team at -8 -110 one second, and the next second after a refresh it is -8 +105..... sometimes it goes back and forth forever?

You have to have a feel for it. I also have other indicators. Something I like to look at also is the consensus lines off a line service and BetCris is market mover who usually moves first on the number and Pinny will follow them also. Cant hit them all but 75% of them is a good number to go for. Remember if you can bet -120 lines they will hit 54.5% like clockwork and you are only paying -110 for them

 

[Journeyman]

You have to have a feel for it. I also have other indicators. Something I like to look at also is the consensus lines off a line service and BetCris is market mover who usually moves first on the number and Pinny will follow them also. Cant hit them all but 75% of them is a good number to go for. Remember if you can bet -120 lines they will hit 54.5% like clockwork and you are only paying -110 for them

I was on a nice roll capping from Sept to Feb, tried this with HT's and lost my ass...I don't see how it works with HT's , just too volatile.

 

[ClipJoint]

I was on a nice roll capping from Sept to Feb, tried this with HT's and lost my ass...I don't see how it works with HT's , just too volatile.

I did this over a 3 month period and lost 6 figures. I am always curious as to why he touts this form of halftime betting.