System play has changed the way i wager (forever?)

[Iceman]

I only did this for a few weeks (maybe 4 weeks)...the outs wouldn't have mattered in my case, very few games were remotely close , it was like the exact opposite-huge losses...plus were talking about HT here, the line isn't going to move that much.

Journey,
Though I agree with you on 95% of the things, I completely disagree with this. Take it from a guy who does this all day every day.The outs are everything. I have ditched a few books as I cannot get a good number there EVER and I have reached and lost there. Halftimes are extremly violate and that is what you want. Either way I can find a bet at 1 of the 4 books I am at right now almost on 50% of the halftime totals (the key is NBA 2nd half totals, very beatable). Other sharp books I can sit there all day every day and nothing, it is almost like they move the second Pinny moves and they are tied into them. Halftimes are very easy becuase some places are slow to move them. The first few minutes of NBA halftimes are the easiest or a game that keeps moving in 1 direction and the books dodnt move with it. I use my other indicators to follow/bet them. If anyone wants to attempt this than practice scalping/middling for small amounts.

I will heed your advice with bases but I am convinced more and more that it doesnt matter the sport just the moneyline attached to it LONGTERM. See this thru it will win. I think this is most guys problem with this that want instant results. I am talking 1,000 plays at least. In the process you will get better and get a better feel for it.

 

[Iceman]

I have made 3 bets so far today all for 2 units each.

over 199 Milwaukee (Carib)
Undre 202.5 Golden St (sportsbetting)
over 223.5 Phoenix (sportsbetting)

also have bet Orlando -1.5 but not quite there yet, wil keep my eyes on all of them.

Doug,
I have signed up at around 25 books at 1 time or another and have never signed up at WSEX. I find it hard to believe but just never have got around to it. May take you up on them as I will leave a few of these square hoops books now that the season is winding down.

Aren't they a dimeline with bases? Have to start putting together a gameplan with baseball and what outs to use.

 

[Journeyman]

Clip Joint makes a great deal of wagers too, and he lost as well on Ht's , maybe we weren't betting EVERY game like you do just the wrong ones....my experience wasn't good when I tried it, it worked much better with full game...I don't think my sample size was nearly enough...it was bombing badly though.

 

[Iceman]

Clip Joint makes a great deal of wagers too, and he lost as well on Ht's , maybe we weren't betting EVERY game like you do just the wrong ones....my experience wasn't good when I tried it, it worked much better with full game...I don't think my sample size was nearly enough...it was bombing badly though.

I hear ya. I dont question that. I am talking about a full season or so. 4-5a nite on average times 7 days week (some more some less) 30 a week, 600 or so for the year.

Were you concentrating on totals as they are 80% of my haltime tyoe bets (20% sides).

I make a point to bet halftimes when they are a lot of games that nite in NBA and go out of the way to make sure I am betting them (like I am going to do something else:lolBIG: ) as they are such money makers for me.

 

[Doug]

I have made 3 bets so far today all for 2 units each.

over 199 Milwaukee (Carib)
Undre 202.5 Golden St (sportsbetting)
over 223.5 Phoenix (sportsbetting)

also have bet Orlando -1.5 but not quite there yet, wil keep my eyes on all of them.

Doug,
I have signed up at around 25 books at 1 time or another and have never signed up at WSEX. I find it hard to believe but just never have got around to it. May take you up on them as I will leave a few of these square hoops books now that the season is winding down.

Aren't they a dimeline with bases? Have to start putting together a gameplan with baseball and what outs to use.

they have a 7 cent line on the low end, like -110, +103

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Clip and Ice,

I think some things that will help explain the different results are:

1. Were you both betting halftimes every night and the entire card when there was pinny 2h steam?

2. Were you both flat betting every play?

3. Clipjoint being a larger bettor may not be betting at the squarest books.

Curious to know if iceman was watching the entire board until the final 2h tipped.

I dont how large a sample he has tested, but a friend of mine swears fading the pinny + produces profits.

Ive never believed him, but I havent tested enough data and dont like sitting around every night waiting for later nba games.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Halfimes (NBA, not NCAA) are probably the most profitable of all the hoops bets out there.

Clip, do you remember any different results comparing nba and ncaa?

-----

Ill add to icemans previous post. If you did not sample every potential play from every night since you began doing this, your sample should be more attributed to randomness and luck than anything else.

Either way, 30k is a nice chunk of change.

 

[oldmanTED]

I'm just going to chime in hear for a moment since you are now discussing halftime plays. You may or may not be aware of this or considered this, but line movements at halftime are very often the results of hedges and middles from large players. You cannot and I repeat, you cannot assume Pinnacle's line movement indicates the right side of a halftime line. Nor any book for that matter. There is a lot of large scale buy backs in second half plays which is a false indicator for the follower of the line.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Thats a pretty damn sharp post omt.

:drink:

 

[SportSavant]

I'm just going to chime in hear for a moment since you are now discussing halftime plays. You may or may not be aware of this or considered this, but line movements at halftime are very often the results of hedges and middles from large players. You cannot and I repeat, you cannot assume Pinnacle's line movement indicates the right side of a halftime line. Nor any book for that matter. There is a lot of large scale buy backs in second half plays which is a false indicator for the follower of the line.

this might actually lead to a value Indicator such as Clip and i were suggesting above, that playing at Pinny and Fading their move might be the way to go here.

 

[Doug]

I'm just going to chime in hear for a moment since you are now discussing halftime plays. You may or may not be aware of this or considered this, but line movements at halftime are very often the results of hedges and middles from large players. You cannot and I repeat, you cannot assume Pinnacle's line movement indicates the right side of a halftime line. Nor any book for that matter. There is a lot of large scale buy backs in second half plays which is a false indicator for the follower of the line.

That is a factor,indeed ! Take a game lined at 200, and its 62-58 at the half, those with over 200 may be inclined to bet under for H2, and try to middle, but I've noticed the MOS ( more of the same) bettors tend to play over, and the line goes higher, if you open at 104, it soon becomes 105, so I'd grab the opener in that case,if I wanted over, even with potential under money out there.

 

[oldmanTED]

this might actually lead to a value Indicator such as Clip and i were suggesting above, that playing at Pinny and Fading their move might be the way to go here.

I'll give you an example. In yesterday's Georgetown/North Carolina game, the pregame closing total was 138. The teams scored 96 points in the first half. This would normally lead to a second half opener of 69+5 or 74. The line opened at 76 and quickly shot to 78. Then when it stabilized, the hedgers/middlers who had Over 138 hit the Under 78 driving it back toward 77. You have to anticipate this type of movement on both the side and total whether it be at Pinnacle or any other shop.

 

[Journeyman]

this might actually lead to a value Indicator such as Clip and i were suggesting above, that playing at Pinny and Fading their move might be the way to go here.

But how does this explain Ice Man's results?

Ted's post makes the most sense and is exactly why I don't think you can do this at HT.

 

[Journeyman]

I'll give you an example. In yesterday's Georgetown/North Carolina game, the pregame closing total was 138. The teams scored 96 points in the first half. This would normally lead to a second half opener of 69+5 or 74. The line opened at 76 and quickly shot to 78. Then when it stabilized, the hedgers/middlers who had Over 138 hit the Under 78 driving it back toward 77. You have to anticipate this type of movement on both the side and total whether it be at Pinnacle or any other shop.

That is very interesting Ted....now we're talking about three entirely different forms of forecasting.

 

[oldmanTED]

That is very interesting Ted....now we're talking about three entirely different forms of forecasting.

The other thing you have to consider is that the amount to move a second half side is much greater then the amount to move the total.

 

[Journeyman]

Thanks Ted.

 

[BadCo]

Testament: I correspond with Ice and though I have a 40+ hour work week,wife,kids and dogs and would love to comatose on front of the screen waiting for oppurtunity,strike and get the rewards and rush of winning and it actually works.

But, I turned my friend on to Iceman and they correspond.

He works from home(if you want to call it that) he got the line service and spread his money around and it's working for him he thinks it great.

Although right now he's been at his daughters house(Ice that why he hasn;t been on messanger of late)and has to use dial-up he says the pinny leans are woking great and he loves Betmania's happy hour and wonders how Betmania stays in business............LOL he will find out I;m sure real soon.



End of testament.

 

[Iceman]

Just got back. Some of us actually have to work for a living (LOL). I am not saying that I am winning at some unprecendented rate but I would say at least 53% during halftime. Like I said when I have some time I will break some of it down for you. The bottom line you can't even start to form an opinion unless you have I would say 750 bets in, I would estimate.

There are dozens and dozens of little tricks that can be used at any of this and maybe I know more of these than I give myself credit for. There is a feel for it also I guess. Bottom line is that the importance of line shopping means everything in betting. I think most (including myself up until about a year ago) bettors say they know that but just dont preach it, religiously. It is so hard to do this with baseball espicially because of the mindset of saying I will bet the Tigers today +125 but not if they are +122 but it will add up in the long run and you just dont see it.

Sorry SSI, didnt mean to hijack your thread but think it will be next to impossibile to show much of a profit (not saying totally imposssibile) by disreagrding line shopping. Reviewing and discussing things like this on here has definitley upped my game at this.


Bad Co,
Was wondering what happened to him. Tell him I said Hi. Was hoping he was doing well with it. It is work and I have never said it wasn't but I enjoy it. You do have to be a little screwed up in the head to like this but the winning makes it all worth it. You must do everything right for this to work, even playing at the wrong books (you know what I mean there) and this can be too difficult to beat.

I dont know how to tune up a car, build a house, etc.. but I have learned a skill and HOPEFULLY it will pay off for years to come. My confidence is at an all time high right now. Not arrogant but sure of myself that losing a few nites in a row doesn't phase me (probably the most impressive thing I can say is I have NEVER had more than a 3 day losing streak in 7 months doing this and that to me means more than almost anything and proves to me I am doing something right) BRING ON BASEBALL:lol: .

 

[SSI]

thats where your wrong Ice........

as long as im getting plus money on every play and i have around a 47% chance of winning the play, im going to make a lot of money over a large number of plays..

do you know anything about the study of "Probability"?

i know that i could make more, with better lines (thats obvious), payback is better on (+1.40) than on (+1.35)........

im putting out a guarantee, that ill make 62 units or better this baseball season........

average return on my regular season mlb plays will be around (+1.32)...

my record for mlbx is: 20-18 (+3.10 units)

in comparison to what this would be, if this were regular season.. a 20-18 record would be returning (+8.40 units).....

 

[Doug]

I don't think MLB dogs win at 47% historically. I presume you will not be betting all of them, good luck.