STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 9/7/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #23
•Soriano Out As Nationals Closer: Rafael Soriano is out as the Washington Nationals closer as manager Matt Williams said Saturday he will use a closer-by-committee for the time being. Soriano has struggled with mechanical issues in his delivery. He blew a three-run lead in the ninth inning Friday night as the Nationals lost to the Philadelphia Phillies 9-8 in 11 innings. He has a 6.98 ERA since the All-Star break. "For the next couple of days we'll let him ease his mind a little, work on it, do some video and get back to where he has been," Williams said of Soriano. Before the All-Star break, Soriano had a 0.97 ERA.
•Cabrera Wants To Play For The Blue Jays In 2015: Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera suffered a broken pinkie finger last night diving back into first base. He’ll undergo season-ending surgery, which understandably has the 10-year veteran thinking about next season. The Jays can extend a $14.1 million qualifying offer to Cabrera, and if he rejects, he can become a free agent. It sounds like Cabrera is already leaning towards a return, according to MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm: “I love the city of Toronto, I have great teammates, a great club,” Cabrera said. “This was the club that gave me the opportunity after I got in trouble a few years ago [with a 50-game PED suspension] and I want to stay.”
In November 2012, the Blue Jays signed Cabrera to a two-year, $16 million deal despite his having been suspended after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Cabrera had a poor 2013 showing, due largely to a benign tumor on his spine. He bounced back and had a great 2014 season, posting a .301/.351/.458 slash line with 16 home runs and 73 RBI in 621 plate appearances. Cabrera turned 30 on August 11, so there would be some interest in his services if he were to make it into free agency, but the draft pick compensation attached to him — assuming the Jays make a qualifying offer — might temper the market as it had for Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales, among others.
•Koji Uehara Out As Red Sox Closer: A day after blowing his third consecutive save opportunity and taking his third loss in his last five appearances, the Boston Red Sox have temporarily removed Koji Uehara from the closer role. Edward Mujica will take over ninth-inning duties. Entering Thursday night's game against the New York Yankees with a 4-3 lead, Uehara gave up a game-tying home run to Mark Teixeira before surrendering a game-winning home run to Chase Headley two batters later. After the game, Uehara told Japanese reporters, "I'm responsible for everything, it's my fault," before quickly departing for the trainer's room and later offering a statement through team interpreter C.J. Matsumoto that "nothing was working."
Red Sox manager John Farrell had said Thursday night that he intended to speak with Uehara about the possibility of dialing things back, thus leading to Friday's decision. "After having a chance to sit with Koji, he was understanding," Farrell said. "Understands the reason for it. We'll probably give him a couple of days to regroup some and then look to get him back in some lower-leverage situations before ideally we have him close out games before the season is out. That's the plan moving forward. When that is remains to be seen." Farrell had also mentioned Thursday night the possibility of shutting Uehara down for the remainder of the season, an idea he backed away from Friday given the right-hander's apparent good health. As the team has done since signing Uehara as a free agent prior to the 2013 season, Farrell said the 39-year-old's workload will continue to be monitored carefully moving forward.
•Matt Harvey Soon To Wrap Up Bullpen Sessions: After spending more than a year living the life of a recovering patient, Mets ace Matt Harvey soon will take a major step back toward normalcy. Though a precise end date has yet to be determined, Harvey soon will wrap up throwing his extended bullpen sessions, the closest he'll come to game action this season. Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen said Harvey then will be treated like any other pitcher on staff when he begins an offseason regimen of rest, exercise and light throwing. Harvey remains in line to resume throwing off the mound in early February, which would set him up to face batters in spring training. That will be about 16 months after Tommy John surgery to repair an injury that shortened his breakout 2013 campaign. "Right now, there has been no setbacks," Warthen said before the Mets blew out the Reds, 14-5, Friday night. "The way he's throwing right now, I think he's a pretty happy man."
Though Harvey expressed his desire to face hitters in a competitive environment -- preferably in a major-league game -- team officials have long dismissed that idea. He has settled for a string of bullpen sessions designed to simulate a game, though he won't be facing any hitters. The first of those sessions took place Thursday at the team's complex in Port St. Lucie, Florida. Warthen said Harvey came through it with no issues after throwing 50 pitches that were staggered over three simulated innings and separated by eight-minute breaks. Harvey now will follow a schedule similar to a pitcher in a standard five-man rotation, treating the extended bullpen sessions as starts. "Now he'll be acting like that [session] is a game," Warthen said. "So you go into your full rotation stuff. You take a day off, throw a little bit on the side, take two days off and throw a sim game again." Harvey is scheduled to throw his next extended bullpen session Tuesday at Citi Field.
By then, Warthen expects Mets brass and Harvey to have met about when he will go into a typical offseason mode. A firm shutdown date has yet to be set, according to team insiders, mostly because that decision will be made in part by Harvey. The Mets have been pleased with his physical progress and also want him to be mentally prepared to end his throwing program, which could occur near the end of the season. "We'll probably solidify all of this as we sit down and talk," Warthen said. "Harvey will be there Sunday and I'm sure we will all get together Monday and Tuesday and finalize everything." According to Warthen, a desire exists for Harvey to progress beyond throwing only fastballs before concluding his rehab, though the righthander will be kept from throwing at 100 percent until spring training. In early November, Harvey will begin playing catch twice a week, the beginning of a pitcher's normal offseason routine. But first he will be shut down to rest his arm. That's also common practice for any pitcher. "He'll take a month off from throwing," Warthen said, "which we encourage all of our guys to do just to recover."
•Dodgers' Beckett Mulls Retirement: Josh Beckett might have pitched his last game in the major leagues. The injured right-hander confirmed Friday that he won't return this month and that he's mulling retirement. In addition to dealing with a left hip injury, Beckett also faces surgery on a torn labrum that will require four months of recovery and rehab. Beckett said he'll make a final decision during the offseason on retiring or returning after spending time with his family and discussing his future with them. "I think the decision would have be more difficult if health had not been an issue," Beckett said. "The last three years have been just been one thing after another for me. When we do get to the offseason, the decision will be tough, but it still makes it a little easier." The 34-year-old Beckett returned this season from a surgical procedure near his right shoulder and posted a 6-6 record with a 2.88 ERA in 20 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The highlight was a no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies on May 25. "As far as the progress has gone with this thing, I think (manager) Donnie (Mattingly) said it yesterday. It's just not going to happen this year," Beckett said. "As far as the future goes, for next year, I think I'm going to have to think about that and talk to my wife a little bit more." In 14 big league seasons, Beckett has compiled a 138-106 record with a 3.88 ERA in 2,051 innings. He was named to three All-Star teams and led the American League in wins with 20 in 2007. "At some point, you decide, 'Is this really worth trying to get myself ready for another season when you know the stuff that goes into it,'" Beckett said. "It's not the pitching part that bothers you. I probably felt best on the days I pitched. It's the other days leading up to it. I'm not announcing anything right now. I don't know if the decision will be made before Christmas. It may be the day after the season, it may be January."
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Betting Notes - Sunday
National League
•Braves-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Teheran is 3-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
--Hand is 0-4, 5.91 in his last five starts.
--Atlanta is 6-7 in its last thirteen games.
--Marlins lost seven of their last ten games.
--Over is 4-1-1 in last six Teheran starts.
•Mets-Reds - 1:10 PM
--Wheeler is 1-1, 6.23 in his last three starts.
--Latos is 1-1, 4.20 in his last five starts.
--Mets won four of their last six games.
--Cincinnati lost six of its last eight games.
--Over is 5-1-1 in New York's last seven games.
•Phillies-Nationals - 1:35 PM
--Hamels is 2-0, 2.81 in his last five starts.
--Gonzalez is 1-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.
--Philly won nine of its last twelve games.
--Washington lost seven of its last eleven games.
--Six of last nine Washington games went over.
•Cardinals-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--Wainwright is 2-2, 5.76 in his last four starts.
--Nelson is 0-4, 5.71 in his last five starts.
--Cardinals won seven of their last eight games.
--Milwaukee lost ten of its last eleven games.
--Six of last eight Nelson starts stayed under the total.
•Pirates-Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Cole is 1-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.
--Wood is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts.
--Pittsburgh lost four of its last six games, but won twice yesterday.
--Cubs lost their last two games, scoring three runs.
--Seven of last nine games at Wrigley Field stayed under.
•Diamondbacks-Dodgers - 4:10 PM
--Cahill is 0-2, 8.56 in his last three starts.
--Greinke is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
--Arizona lost 14 of its last 20 games.
--Dodgers won three of their last four games.
--Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Arizona games.
•Padres-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Ross is 2-0, 1.46 in his last couple starts.
--Morales is 0-3, 6.44 in his last seven starts.
--Padres lost five of their last seven games.
--Colorado won six of its last seven home games.
--Under is 10-4 in last fourteen Morales starts.
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American League
•White Sox-Indians - 1:05 PM
--Carroll is 1-3, 8.79 in his last five starts.
--Carrasco is 3-0, 0.87 in his last five starts.
--White Sox lost last three games, scoring six runs.
--Cleveland won three of its last four games.
--Last six Carrasco starts stayed under total.
•Royals-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Ventura is 4-1, 3.08 in his last six starts.
--Greene is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts.
--Royals won four of their last five games.
--New York won seven of its last nine home games.
--Six of last seven Royal games stayed under total.
•Blue Jays-Red Sox - 1:35 PM
--Dickey is 2-2, 4.91 in his last four road starts.
--De La Rosa is 0-1, 6.10 in his last four starts.
--Toronto won five of its last seven games.
--Red Sox lost eight of last ten home games, but won last two.
--Five of last seven Boston home games went over total.
•Orioles-Rays - 1:40 PM
--Norris is 4-1, 3.43 in his last seven starts.
--Hellickson is 0-2, 6.63 in his last four starts.
--Baltimore won nine of its last thirteen games.
--Rays lost eight of their last thirteen games.
--Last six Norris starts went over the total.
•Angels-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Wilson is 0-1, 5.28 in his last three starts.
--Darnell is 0-1, 11.00 in two starts this season.
--Angels won nine of their last eleven games.
--Minnesota lost 11 of its last 14 games.
--Over is 13-3-1 in last seventeen Minnesota games.
•Mariners-Rangers - 3:05 PM
--Paxton is 3-1, 2.35 in his last five starts.
--Martinez is 0-0, 2.38 in his last two starts.
--Seattle won six of its last seven games.
--Rangers lost their last eight games, scoring 18 runs.
--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Paxton starts.
•Astros-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Keuchel is 0-2, 3.43 in his last six starts.
--Hammel is 2-1, 2.40 in his last five starts.
--Astros won five of their last six games.
--Oakland lost seven of its last nine games.
--Seven of last nine Oakland games stayed under.
Interleague
•Giants-Tigers - 8:00 PM
--Hudson is 1-1, 5.40 in his last six starts.
--Lobstein is 0-0, 3.18 in his first two starts.
--Giants won nine of their last eleven games.
--Detroit is 3-5 in its last eight home games.
--Over is 6-1-1 in last eight San Francisco games.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Teheran 17-12; Hand 4-8
-- Wheeler 13-15; Latos 6-9
-- Hamels 13-12; Gonzalez 13-10
-- Wainwright 19-9; Nelson 4-6
-- Cole 11-6; Wood 14-14
-- Cahill 4-9; Greinke 14-13
-- Ross 15-14; Morales 8-12
-- Carroll 5-11; Carrrasco 4-5
-- Ventura 14-11; Greene 7-3
-- Dickey 13-16; De La Rosa 7-8
-- Norris 15-9; Hellickson 3-6
-- Wilson 13-13; Darnell 0-2
-- Paxton 6-2; Holland 0-1
-- Keuchel 14-12; Hammel 10-7/2-7
-- Hudson 16-10; Lobstein 2-0
•Pitchers Allowing Runs In First Inning
-- Teheran 8-29; Hand 5-12
-- Wheeler 9-28; Latos 2-15
-- Hamels 3-25; Gonzalez 8-23
-- Wainwright 4-28; Nelson 3-10
-- Cole 6-17; Wood 7-28
-- Cahill 6-13; Greinke 6-27
-- Ross 7-29; Morales 4-20
-- Carroll 6-16; Carrrasco 2-9
-- Ventura 7-25; Greene 3-10
-- Dickey 8-29; De La Rosa 4-15
-- Norris 8-24; Hellickson 2-9
-- Wilson 6-26; Darnell 0-2
-- Paxton 2-8; Holland 0-1
-- Keuchel 7-26; Hammel 8-26
-- Hudson 6-26; Lobstein 1-2
•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-Mia-- Last three Estabrool games stayed under.
-- NY-Cin-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight TBarrett games.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Home side won six of last seven Woodring games.
-- StL-Mil-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Davidson games.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Seven of last ten Kellogg games stayed under.
-- Az-LA-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Barry games.
-- SD-Col-- Last four Bucknor games went over the total.
-- Chi-Cle-- Three of last four TWelke games went over.
-- KC-NY-- Last seven Segal games went over total.
-- Tor-Bos-- Underdogs are 9-5 in last 14 Drake games.
-- Blt-TB-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Gibson games.
-- LA-Min-- Three of last four Tumpane games went over.
-- Sea-Tex-- Last three Hernandez games went over the total.
-- Hst-A's-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Blaser games.
-- SF-Det-- Road teams won 14 of last 21 Wegner games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Los Angeles Dodger Zack Greinke is 23-4 in his team starts against the money line (85.1%) in home games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. The right-hander has also recorded an outstanding 16-2 mark in home games versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game during the past three seasons.
Greinke has been nearly untouchable against Arizona for two years. The 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner is 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in six starts against the Diamondbacks since the start of 2013. He has allowed two runs over 19 1/3 innings while striking out 22 in three meetings this season. In Greinke most recent start Aug. 30, he allowed one run over eight innings but didn't get a decision in a 2-1, 10-inning loss at San Diego. The 2014 National League All-Star has a 1.80 ERA over his last three outings, though he said his elbow has been bothering him for a month.
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Diamond Trends - Sunday
•TEXAS is 11-36 (-25.1 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.4, OPPONENT 5.3.
•MILWAUKEE is 11-0 OVER (+11.3 Units) in home games versus an excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.4, OPPONENT 5.7.
•NY METS are 26-8 (+18.7 Units) against the run line versus a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was NY METS 4.9, OPPONENT 3.8.
•COLE HAMELS is 15-3 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 3.6, OPPONENT 2.4.
•TYSON ROSS is 19-6 UNDER (+11.9 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was ROSS 3.6, OPPONENT 2.4.
•GIO GONZALEZ is 1-11 (-11.0 Units) against the run line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.
The average score was GONZALEZ 2.6, OPPONENT 4.2.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
(73-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +43.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +111.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +1)
The situation's record this season is: (10-12, -3.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-28, +23 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (111-82, +40.3 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (MINNESOTA) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(66-27 since 1997.) (71.0%, +41.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (59-34)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 4.9, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 55 (59.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-6, +1.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-13, +12.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-18, +20.1 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (SAN DIEGO) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a below average starting pitcher (ERA= 5.20 to 5.70) - National League, ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games.
(49-19 since 1997.) (72.1%, +28.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.9, Money Line=-110.8
The average score in these games was: Team 4, Opponent 3.6 (Total runs scored = 7.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 43 (59.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, -0.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4, +6.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7, +11.1 units).
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