Jack Jones
Washington Redskins vs. Houston Texans
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Texans -3
Washington went 10-6 in 2012 under Mike Shanahan by winning each of its final seven games to capture the NFC East crown. It would lose starting quarterback Robert Griffin III to an injury in the playoffs, and he just wasn’t the same player when he came back last year. He would struggle for much of the season as the Redskins wound up going just 3-13 for a last-place finish within the division. Now, it will be up to former Cincinnati offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to try and turn things around for Griffin III and company in 2014.
Houston had won the division in 2012 with a 13-3 record and was a clear Super Bowl contender heading into 2013. After a shaky 2-0 start, it was clear that there were problems with this team, and things escalated quickly. Indeed, the Texans would lose each of their final 14 games of the season to finish with the worst record in the NFL at 2-14. The only positive that came from that was the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, which they used on Jadeveon Clowney. Bill O’Brien comes over from Penn State and should inject new life into the franchise in his first year on the job in 2014.
The reason the Texans were a Super Bowl contender heading into 2013 was because they had won a combined 24 games over the previous two seasons and won a playoff game in each. They had a very good team last year, but then injuries and bad breaks haunted them for the entire season. They were nowhere near as bad as their 2-14 record would indicate. In fact, they ranked 11th in the league in total offense (347.2 ypg) and 7th in total defense (317.6 ypg), actually outgaining opponents by an average of nearly 30 yards per game.
Houston went an NFL-worst 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less, had the worst turnover differential (-20) in the league, and gave up the second-most points (38) in the NFL from turnovers on offense that resulted in either defensive touchdowns or safeties. Five of those close losses came to the likes of the Seahawks, Chiefs, Colts, Cardinals and Patriots, who all won 10 or more games last year. They showed that they could play with the best teams in the league, but they just couldn’t get it done late in games.
The offense has all the pieces to be great. O’Brien has worked wonders with quarterbacks in the past. He got the most out of Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenburg at Penn State, and the only year he was the offensive coordinator in New England, Tom Brady had the best season of his career. That’s why Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has plenty of starting experience in this league, will succeed. He has plenty of weapons to get the ball to outside in Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, and he has a healthy Arian Foster to hand the ball off to.
Houston’s defense will be one of the best in the league this season. J.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, and now he’ll have Jadeveon Clowney opposite him. Opponents cannot double-team both of these guys, so one or both are in line for monster seasons. Linebacker Brian Cushing returns from injury and is a critical part of this defense. With Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph as lock-down corners, the Texans have all the pieces to be the top stop unit in the league, just as they were back in 2012 after ranking 7th last year.
Griffin III just has not looked comfortable as a pocket passer. That’s what he has to become now because he cannot run as often as he did as a rookie because he is too much of an injury risk. Even long-time Redskin Joe Theisman has been calling for Kirk Cousins to replace Griffin III as the starter. He sees how badly Griffin III is struggling, and he’s not afraid to voice his opinion on it because it’s the truth. Things won’t get any easier for Griffin III against Watt, Clowney and company in the opener.
The Redskins ranked 31st in the league in scoring defense a year ago, allowing 29.9 points per game. Washington went 1-7 straight up and 2-6 against the spread on the road last season, getting outscored by nearly 10 points per game away from home. I expect the Texans to roll at home Sunday.