STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #1
•Rams Work Out Free Agent Linebackers: Looking to bolster their defense, the St. Louis Rams worked out two free agent linebackers on Friday. Former Atlanta Falcons linebacker Pat Angerer's resume includes 39 starts in 54 career games. He would provide depth at the middle or weak-side position. Angerer was signed by the Atlanta Falcons in July, but released last week. Former Indianapolis Colts linebacker Kelvin Sheppard was released last weekend. He spent the entire 2013 season with the Colts, but has prior experience with the Buffalo Bills. Sheppard has started 31 games in his career. Among the Rams final cuts was rookie Michael Sam, who was signed to the Dallas Cowboys practice squad this week. Sam was a seventh-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft out of Missouri who thrust himself into the spotlight after becoming the first NFL player to openly say he's gay.
•49ers' McDonald Expected To Play Sunday: Defensive tackle Ray McDonald will play for the San Francisco 49ers in their opener on Sunday despite his arrest a week ago for domestic violence. "As it stands now, yes," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said when asked whether McDonald would be in action against the Dallas Cowboys. "Two principles are woven together here. I feel like the way the facts are and what's known that he has the liberty to play in the game." McDonald practiced with the team throughout the week. No charges have been filed against McDonald. He posted $25,000 bail on Sunday afternoon. Any discipline would be handled by the team and not through the league, 49ers general manager Trent Baalke said this week. The NFL announced a new policy last week on domestic violence. Anyone found guilty of domestic violence is suspended for six games for a first offense and receives a lifetime ban for a second offense.
•New Drug Policy Could Affect Welker, Gordon Suspensions: Wes Welker and Josh Gordon are two of a handful of suspended players closely watching to see if the NFL and the players' union are able to strike a deal to modify the league's drug policy in the next 48 hours. If a new policy is agreed upon, those players' suspensions could be reduce or overturned, according to multiple reports. In a radio interview Friday, NFL Players Association executive director DeMaurice Smith said if the new policy is approved, players who have been recently suspended under the old rules should have their sanctions revised or revoked.
"If we get a deal done that covers players in this league year, I don't like that we punish players under a deal active in the old league year," Smith told 106.7 The Fan in Washington. "We don't want players to suffer because the union and the league couldn't get it done before the league year." Two sources close to the negotiations told The Washington Post that an agreement on a new drug policy probably would have to be completed before Sunday's games are played for Gordon and Welker to have their suspensions modified. Talks between the league and the union have focused on adding blood-testing for human growth hormone, as well as other changes to other aspects of the league's drug policies.
The two sides have been discussing modifying the threshold for what would constitute a positive test for marijuana, The Post reported. Gordon's suspension, according to reports, resulted from a positive test for marijuana in which one of the two urine samples taken from him was barely above the current level for a positive test; the other was below it. According to the NFL Network, the union and the league are considering a plan to modify the strict NFL threshold to match that of the military and Major League Baseball, which is more stringent than the Olympics' threshold.
Another policy change involves amphetamine tests. A positive test would no longer fall under performance-enhancing drug policy, but under substance-abuse policy. A positive test during the offseason would not necessarily result in a suspension. According to reports, Welker tested positive for amphetamines during the offseason. Another issue could affect Gordon. Sources say the league would like to immediately discipline players who are arrested for DWI, without going through due process. Gordon was charged with DWI on July 5 in North Carolina. He is scheduled to appear in court on that charge in November. Other players who might be affected by the changes include Dallas Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick.
Scandrick, one of the Cowboys' top defenders, has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. He tested positive early in the preseason for amphetamines. Similar to Welker, under the new rules he possibly would avoid a suspension. Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson could also see a reduction of his four-game suspension. Neither the Eagles nor Johnson have said what led to the suspension. The Indianapolis Colts' Robert Mathis, who led the league with 19.5 sacks and eight forced fumbles last season, also will be watching to see if his suspension from violating the league's substance-abuse policy will be affected.
•Packers Lacy Has Concussion; Bulaga Sprains MCL: The Green Bay Packers confirmed that running back Eddie Lacy sustained a concussion during Thursday night's 36-16 season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Late Friday, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said the second-year running back had passed the first step of the NFL’s concussion protocol. Lacy, according to a league source, said he is optimistic he will be cleared to play in Green Bay's next game on Sept. 14 against the New York Jets. Earlier Friday, the Packers said starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga suffered a sprained MCL to his left knee in the second quarter. McCarthy was unsure how much, if any, time Bulaga would miss.
He injured the same knee in training camp last summer, and missed the 2013 season after ACL reconstruction. He was playing in his first game since November 2012 and was wearing a brace on the knee. Lacy, a second-year player, departed in the second half after picking up 34 yards on 12 carries. He left the locker room wearing sunglasses but could not talk to reporters per the NFL's concussion policy. Lacy on Thursday night wore a new Riddell helmet called the SpeedFlex, which the company says helps better absorb impact force by adding flexibility to certain parts of the helmet, according to ESPN.com.
Some players are wearing the helmet, especially those who previously had concussions. It will hit the general retail market Oct. 1. Bulaga was hurt when he collided with tight end Richard Rodgers after Lacy cut back for a 3-yard gain. After remaining on the turf for several minutes, Bulaga limped to the sideline and later left for the locker room. He was replaced by backup Derek Sherrod. Bulaga missed all of the 2013 season after tearing an ACL during a preseason scrimmage and had his 2012 season cut short with a hip injury. The Packers' offensive line came into the opener already missing injured starting center J.C. Tretter. Rookie Corey Linsley took Tretter's place.
•Brady, Gronkowski Listed As Questionable: New England listed quarterback Tom Brady, as well as tight end Rob Grankowski, as questionable on Friday as the Patriots prepare for Sunday's season opener at Miami. Brady said he will be "ready to go" despite a calf injury. He returned to practice on Friday, stretching and jogging in warm-ups during the open media portion of practice. "Physically I had the day off, but I got a lot of extra film in," Brady said in an interview with Westwood One Sports radio on Thursday night. "I got a lot of mental reps in and walk-throughs and such... and I'll be ready to go Sunday. "Anything can happen for anybody between now and then, but I'm looking forward to playing Sunday."
According to the NFL’s standards, a player listed as questionable has a 50-50 chance of playing. The Patriots travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. Brady's backup, rookie second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo, took the first-team snaps Thursday. Coach Bill Belichick shed no more light on Brady's injury when asked about it Friday. "We have done what we are required to do," Belichick said. "We have listed the injury. We will continue to list it. We'll list his status based on what the requirements of the league are. "Jimmy (Garoppolo) steps in and does it. It's no different than any other position or anything we've done before there." Brady has been durable during most of his career. He has started all 16 Patriots regular-season game in 11 of the past 12 seasons. In 2008, he was hurt in Week 1 and lost for year. The Patriots also re-signed quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson to the practice squad Thursday.
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Biggest Betting Mismatches Week #1
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
Each and every week during the National Football League's 2014-15 campaign, StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo will break down some of the underlying mismatches on the schedule, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the card. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week #1. "Until next week, as always enjoy and the very best of luck" -Jude!
•New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+3, Over/Under 51.5)
Saints’ Rushing Attack vs. Falcons’ Run Defense
When you think of the Saints you aren’t automatically drawn to thoughts of smashmouth football and a run-heavy playbook. However, with New Orleans working in a group of new receivers in 2014, head coach Sean Payton will look to running backs Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Pierre Thomas to tread water until Drew Brees and his new targets cook up some chemistry. Ingram has a lot of buzz around him this summer and was named the team’s Preseason Offensive MVP.
You’d think less Brees would be a good thing for the Falcons defense. And it is. But Atlanta was exposed on the ground last season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game – second worst in the National Football League. The Falcons’ stop unit is extremely young with five second-year players starting but did spend some money up front, trying to plug those holes against the run. New Orleans’ running-backs will put those new faces to the test early and often Sunday afternoon.
•Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-3, Over/Under 43)
Vikings’ New Defense vs. Rams’ Offensive Line
The Rams offensive line had one mission this season: Keep Sam Bradford healthy. They didn’t even make it out of the preseason, with Bradford suffering another ACL tear that leaves St. Louis starting backup Shaun Hill under center in Week #1. St. Louis’ pass protection is a mess. Left tackle Jake Long isn’t the same player since his own ACL injury, guard Roger Saffold has been slowed by ailments all summer, and first-round pick Greg Robinson hasn’t found his footing yet in the pros.
That iffy pass protection will be tested by the Vikings’ new-look defense under head coach Mike Zimmer, who is known for his aggressive blitz packages. Minnesota has already seen a major uptick on that side of the ball since Zimmer took over. The Vikings finished last in scoring defense in 2013, allowing 30 points per game. They gave up just 12.3 points per game in their undefeated preseason run – No. 2 in the NFL. Sure, those are only exhibition results but there’s excitement surrounding this stop unit in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
•Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (-6.5, Over/Under 47.5)
Bills’ Short Secondary vs. Bears’ Big Receivers
The Bears’ receiving corps could be mistaken for members of the Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wideout combo Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery stand 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3 respectively. Add to those weapons tight-ends Martellus Bennett (6-foot-6) and Dante Rosario (6-foot-3), along with pass-catching running-back Matt Forte (6-foot-2, tall for a running back), and the Bears have one hell of a five-on-five hoops lineup.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, these teams aren’t playing charity pick-up on the hallowed Windy City blacktop. It’s football on Sunday. The Bills will have to look up – way up – when Chicago head coach Marc Trestman unleashes his towers of power. Buffalo’s tallest member of the secondary is corner Stephon Gilmore, who measures up at 6-foot-1. Gilmore is one of the more physical pass defenders but has been limited by a groin injury. Five-foot-10 corner Leodis McKelvin is also on the mend after undergoing hip surgery this offseason. "(Chicago’s WRs are) tall, they’re physical and they can go get the ball. It’s going to be a real good test for us corners," McKelvin told The Buffalo News.
•Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-7.5, Over/Under 55.5)
Colts’ Denver Domination vs. Broncos’ Kicker Conundrum
This Sunday Night Football matchup will likely play banker to most books on the first Sunday of the season, meaning there’s going to be a ton of money funneling into this primetime finale. And that loot will likely ride on the foot of Broncos seat-filler Brandon McManus, who is holding down the kicker spot with stud leg Matt Prater serving a four-game suspension. McManus has been collecting dust since booting for Temple in 2012 and could face some less than ideal kicking conditions at Mile High (chance of thunderstorms Sunday night).
The Colts have won and covered in six-straight meetings with the Broncos, including a tight 39-33 victory at home last season. Indianapolis’ defense was able to get to Peyton Manning four times in that game, forced four fumbles – recovering two – and grabbed one interception, leaving Prater to be called upon for two field goals. Colts opponents connected on just 78.79 percent of their field goal attempts in 2013 – a strange but convenient stat – and blocked a field goal for a 61-yard TD return in their win over Seattle. Indianapolis is known for nail bitters and with that half-point hook on the spread, a single missed field goal from McManus could spell doom for Denver backers.
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Need-To-Know Facts For All 32 Teams
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
Everyone knows Christmas Day is December 25th, but for National Football League fans and bettors alike, it's really the first Sunday of the new football season. If you're still up in the air about your Week #1 wagers, we've got you covered here at StatSystemsSports.net. Here's a comprehensive look at the season forecast for every NFL team.
AFC East
•New England Patriots (2013: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Is Brady’s production on the decline or was last year an aberration? The running game seemingly loses key pieces on a yearly basis, with LeGarrette Blount the most recent defector. Who can plug the hole and relieve some of the pressure on Brady? The offensive line has its share of questions that will need to be addressed before the start of the season.
•Buffalo Bills (2013: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) - Change is once again in order in Buffalo, and that’s not a bad thing. Sammy Watkins should add some electricity to the offense, which head coach Doug Marrone wants to move at an even faster pace this season. The defense has a new coordinator in Jim Schwarz, and he brings a new scheme to a unit that is loaded with talent but hasn’t been able to reach its potential.
•Miami Dolphins (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Despite having key pieces in place, the Dolphins offense stunk a year ago, but should be vastly improved under the guidance of new coordinator Bill Lazor in 2014. The Fins defense helped pick up the slack and could be even better this year. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the AFC East. If the offensive line shows even moderate improvement, the Fins will take a leap forward.
•New York Jets (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The secondary has a number of holes and will get picked on regularly out of the gate. Is the presence of Decker enough to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pass defenses? It’s hard to believe that Rex Ryan is still at the helm given the turmoil this team has gone through, and you have to wonder whether the clock is still ticking on his tenure in New York. In a tough division, the Jets may not have quite enough in the tool box to keep pace.
AFC North
•Cincinnati Bengals (2013: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - The quarterback rating for Dalton is still not great as his 88.8 rating was 15th among qualified leaders last year. He has a lot of weapons, although the loss of receiver Marvin Jones for the few three games at least will hurt. The division as whole should be tougher after Baltimore and Pittsburgh took a step back last season. The schedule is a challenge with trips to New England, Indianapolis and New Orleans and visits from Atlanta and Denver.
•Pittsburgh Steelers (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs each of the last two years following 8-8 seasons, so there will be plenty of motivation to turn things around. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed 28 touchdowns, his most since 2007, but he also threw 14 interceptions. He should have better protection and the additions of Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey should help improve his numbers this year. The toughest road games outside of the division are at Carolina and Atlanta.
•Baltimore Ravens (2013: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Flacco had his worse passer rating in his six-year career as he tossed a career-high 22 picks last season. While a rebound should be expected, the only addition to his receiving corps was Steve Smith, who is arguably past his prime. Like the Steelers, the defense is old and an improvement seems unlikely. The Ravens went 2-6 on the highway last year and the road slate this year is even tougher.
•Cleveland Browns (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - There’s a renewed energy in Cleveland with the hiring of Mike Pettine as head coach after Rob Chudzinski was fired after just one season. Drafting Johnny Manziel was a risk that could pay off right away. The Browns defense has taken a step back in points allowed the last two years but it is still an above average unit and should improve this year. While the schedule isn't a cakewalk, it’s the easiest in the AFC North.
AFC South
•Indianapolis Colts (2013: 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) - Indianapolis had back-to-back fortunate years and regression has to set in soon. Seven of their wins came by single digits last season. The Colts defense was good against the bad teams, but awful against the good teams, so they need to make improvements if they want to go forward. Despite their 23 wins over the last two seasons, the Colts will likely regress in 2014.
•Houston Texans (2013: 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS) - Houston made a terrific head coach hire in Bill O’Brien. He immediately added to his coaching staff with former colleagues that coached together in New England. The Texans have one of the best coaching staffs in the league and with a veteran roster, 2014 will be a much better season than 2013. There’s nowhere to go but up and the Texans will be much better than people think.
•Tennessee Titans (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-7-3 ATS) - The Titans come off a 7-9 SU season, but seven of their losses came by single digits. Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator in Ray Horton. He will implement a 3-4 defensive scheme and even though the Titans don’t have the right personnel for that just yet, sometimes a change is philosophy makes a unit better. There’s hope in Tennessee, but the Titans will likely be a .500 team at best this year.
•Jacksonville Jaguars (2013: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS) - If Jacksonville carries over any momentum from late last season, they could be competitive in 2014. The Jaguars went 4-4 over their last eight games with their four losses only coming by 11 points per game. Jacksonville still has a young roster but the majority of the coaching staff will be returning for their second year. Reports out of Florida have been extremely high on head coach Gus Bradley and his impact on the team. The youngsters have taken to his coaching style.
AFC West
•Denver Broncos (2013: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) - At the age of 38, just two years after a potential career ending neck injury, Peyton Manning may be just one hit away from retirement. An injury to Manning would likely be devastating for the Broncos, who don’t have an experienced backup. Manning isn’t the only veteran that could be considered an injury risk, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are both coming off injuries, Ware is 32 years old and Miller has yet to play this preseason.
•Kansas City Chiefs (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The offense will depend heavily on the run, but that should be a good thing with Jamaal Charles carrying the load. Charles is a dual threat, with a dozen rushing TDs and seven TD receptions last season. He ran for 1,287 yards and added 70 catches for 693 yards in the air. Alex Smith was just one of 10 Chiefs to go to the Pro Bowl and he’s one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league.
•San Diego Chargers (2013: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) - The loss of offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt could hurt Phillip Rivers' chances of repeating his breakout performance last season. Starting running-back Ryan Mathews stayed healthy last year for the first time in his four year career, but there is no guarantee he will stay healthy again this season. A brutal schedule isn’t going to help their chances, as they face Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Arizona before the bye week.
•Oakland Raiders (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) - It’s certainly not easy to find positives for the Raiders, but perhaps because expectations are so low, it might be possible they will be better than expected. They were certainly busy in the off-season bringing in Matt Schuab and Maurice Jones-Drew on offense, and their defense should be better with Justin Tuck, Carlos Rogers, Lamarr Woodley and first round draft pick Khalil Mack.
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NFC East
•Philadelphia Eagles (2013: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) - The Eagles essentially stood pat when it comes to offseason moves on the defensive side of the football. They believe they can take a big step forward, but a look at their personnel indicates otherwise. There’s also a lot more pressure on QB Nick Foles following his breakout 2013 campaign. He certainly won’t catch opposing defenses by surprise.
•Washington Redskins (2013: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS) - New head coach Jay Gruden should inject some life into the Redskins, who suffered a massive letdown due to injuries last season. A healthy Robert Griffin III obviously makes all the difference in the world, as does the addition of DeSean Jackson to the receiving corps. Don’t forget Pierre Garcon quietly led the league in catches a year ago.
•Dallas Cowboys (2013: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) - The window of opportunity is closing for a number of Cowboys stalwarts and that should be more than enough motivation to draw their best effort in 2014. Dallas more than held its own with an awful defense a year ago. So if it can improve even marginally in that department, it should be able to control its own destiny this season.
•New York Giants (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - You never really know whether sweeping changes will pay off, especially in the short term. How will Eli Manning adapt to the new offensive philosophy? Can the offensive line hold up its end of the bargain following a miserable 2013 season? To be honest, there are more questions than answers at this point. That’s not to mention the fact that the Giants schedule is unforgiving, especially early on.
NFC North
•Green Bay Packers (2013: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Defense. The Packers allowed 26.8 points per game last season, the most given up in over a decade and a repeat of that will cause issues. The return of Clay Matthews and the addition of Julius Peppers will certainly help, but will it be enough? A running game behind Rodgers is essential as well but that’s no guarantee either.
•Chicago Bears (2013: 8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) - Similar to Green Bay, it comes down to the defense which allowed almost two touchdowns per game more than the previous season. But even an improved stop unit may not be enough. Keeping Cutler healthy is huge as there is no proven backup. Should he go down again, the Bears will be outside of the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.
•Detroit Lions (2013: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS) - After making the playoffs just once in five years under Jim Schwartz, a change was made and Jim Caldwell was brought in. The offense will again be explosive behind Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and the return of the entire offensive line. The defense could be the best in years and a tame schedule could make Detroit a sleeper in the NFC North.
•Minnesota Vikings (2013: 5-10-1 SU, 9-7 ATS) - New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows. Four of the Vikings’ losses were by four points or less and now with low expectations, they could turn the tables on some of those winnable games. The schedule is in their favor as they play only three teams that had a winning record last season.
NFC South
•New Orleans Saints (2013: 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) - As long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are working together, the Saints are a formidable team. New Orleans always possesses a strong offense, but their biggest improvement last season came on defense. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brought a level of toughness to the Saints, and the players responded well to his coaching. The Saints gave up just 18 points per game and if they can duplicate that success, they should have another winning season.
•Atlanta Falcons (2013: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS) - Atlanta is in desperate need of stabilizing their offensive and defensive lines. Both units stunk last season. The Falcons fired both position coaches, so the team must hope the new voices get things back in order. Atlanta went 0-7 SU in true road games last season, and with tough out of division opponents like the Bengals, Giants, Ravens and Packers all coming away from home, the Falcons are facing a daunting schedule in 2014.
•Carolina Panthers (2013: 12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) - Question marks are aplenty in Carolina coming into 2014. The Panthers’ offense was poor in 2013, and now their offensive line is a mess and QB Cam Newton had off-season surgery. Their defense lost some key personnel, and off-field troubles have come to light. Carolina can go either way, so they are a difficult team to project without seeing what they look like on the field. But we’ll lean to a regression year for the Panthers.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013: 4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS) - It was a tale of two seasons for Tampa Bay in 2013. The Buccaneers started out 0-8 straight-up last season, but the team did not quit and they went 4-4 over their final eight games. The new head coach is Lovie Smith, and he has the respect of his players unlike Greg Schiano last season. Tampa Bay’s defense has a lot of young talent, and they have the potential to be really good this year, especially with Smith’s clever defensive schemes.
NFC West
•Seattle Seahawks (2013: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Quarterback Russell Wilson will be in just his third season as a starter. He's shown plenty of poise in his first two years and there’s every reason to assume he'll only get better. If Percy Harvin can stay healthy or rookie Paul Richardson makes an impact, we could see the Seahawks offense make strides in 2014. No team enjoys as much of a home-field advantage as the Seahawks with their 12th man at CenturyLink Field, where they are 15-1 the last two seasons.
•San Francisco 49ers (2013: 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS) - Injuries have taken their toll on San Francisco, which lost Kendall Hunter to a torn ACL, and LaMichael James to a dislocated elbow in training camp. That leaves the backfield in a fragile state, with an aging Frank Gore backed up by an injury-prone Marcus Lattimore and unproven rookie in Carlos Hyde. They also lost Glen Dorsey (out for the season) and Navarro Bowman, who is expected to miss at least the first half of 2014.
•Arizona Cardinals (2013: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS) - There’s concern in the linebacking corps as Karlos Dansby bolted to Cleveland and Daryl Washington has been suspended for the season. Along with safety Yeremiah Bell, who wasn't resigned, the team's top three tacklers from last season (270 in total) are all gone. It could be a rough year for Carson Palmer, as Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis all have ferocious pass rushes that will make life miserable for the immobile veteran quarterback.
•St. Louis Rams (2013: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) - While they look solid on the defensive end, and the running game should be strong with Zac Stacy coming off an impressive rookie campaign, there are still plenty of questions regarding this offense. The Rams averaged fewer than 200 yards passing per game and they don't exactly have a star-studded corps of receivers.
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Quick-Hits - Week #1
Systems Analyst James Vogel
•Saints @ Falcons--Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated NFC South rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits to the Georgia Dome, with last four wins by 4 or less points. New Orleans covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten divisional road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- it’s been four years since they won a NFC South road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 versus spread (64.7%) in divisional home matchups under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.
•Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes versus veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at defensive coordinator this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 versus spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota head coach; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two meetings with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers in 2013, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.
•Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Cleveland like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Browns lost last nine visits to Heinz Field, last six by 11+ points- they scored two touchdowns’ on 24 drives in two games versus Pitt last year, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started in 2013; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 straight-up in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three seasons, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.
•Jaguars @ Eagles--Philadelphia is just 9-23 versus spread at home (28.1%) the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jaguars won 13-6 here in 2006, their only visit to Lincoln Financial Field. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jacksonville lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jaguars are 5-15 versus spread (25.0%) in last 20 matchups versus NFC teams; Eagles are 7-13 in their last 20 versus AFC squads. Over last five years, Week #1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.
•Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for touchdown, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland last year, Raiders 4th loss in row at MetLife Stadium, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series meetings. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. New York won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 versus spread in last 21 home openers (23.8%), but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.
•Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive touchdowns’ on 29 drives versus Bengals last year, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings in 2013, but now Cincinnati has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as offensive coordinator for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series meetings; Bengals lost last four visits to M&T Bank Stadium, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine victories by 7+ points. Cincinnati started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.
•Bills @ Bears--Buffalo signed Bears' old backup quarterback Jordan Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years (21.0%); they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in 2006. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in 2010. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 versus spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since 2007, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites (37.1%), 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games versus AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 versus spread against NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.
•Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 in 2013, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current quarterback Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 versus spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since 2009, Texans are 5-12-3 versus spread (29.4%) when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites last season, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant Stadium in 2006; Texans won in overtime in last series meeting, in 2010. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.
•Titans @ Chiefs-- Ken Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 versus spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers last year, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since 2007, Kansas City is 5-19-1 versus spread as home favorite (20.8%); Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 versus spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2, 85.7% in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee in 2013, scoring touchdown on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.
•Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Patriots played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series meetings, upsetting New England 24-20 (+1) in Week #15 last season; Patriots won five of last seven visits to Sun Life Stadium, with four of five victories by 14+ points. New England won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 versus spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 versus spread in division games (39.1%) the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Dolphins last five home openers went over total.
•Panthers @ Buccaneers--Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at head coach for Buccaneers, who had only one touchdown on 20 drives versus Carolina in 2013, with three turnovers, along with eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Tampa Bay 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits to Raymond James Stadium. Bucs covered three of last four games as home underdog in home openers; they’re 5-4 straight-up in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.
•49ers @ Cowboys--49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite (79.1%) under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since 1988, they’re 5-3 straight-up when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such encounter was in 2002. Since 2006, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series meetings by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since 2011, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 versus spread on carpet under Harbaugh.
•Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 last year before losing 39-33 at Indianapolis in Week #7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four touchdowns was on drive longer than 50 yards. Colts lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 versus spread in Week #1 games. Manning is 9-5 versus spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 straight-up in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.
Monday, 9/8/2014
•Giants @ Lions-- Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games last season, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week #16 debacle to Giants; New York’s two touchdowns were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Giants won last three series meetings by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Detroit has new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 versus spread in last nine openers, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.
•Chargers @ Cardinals--San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series meetings, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits to University of Phoenix Stadium, but haven’t been in desert since 2002, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four versus NFC in 2013, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Chargers won four of last five Week #1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 versus spread in Week #1 last eight years.
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Gridiron Trends - Week #1
•NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 20.8, OPPONENT 18.5.
•NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.9, OPPONENT 18.6.
•BALTIMORE is 25-5 (+22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 24.6, OPPONENT 15.2.
•DETROIT is 23-44 (-25.4 Units) against the 1rst half line as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points versus the first half line since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 11.7, OPPONENT 10.7.
•PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 10.7, OPPONENT 8.7.
•MIKE SMITH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was SMITH 30.7, OPPONENT 18.7.
Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play On - Any team versus the money line (CAROLINA) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 6 or more wins in last 8 games, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a terrible team from last year (<=25%).
(28-2 since 1983.) (93.3%, +24.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -155
The average score in these games was: Team 29.3, Opponent 18.3 (Average point differential = +11)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0, +11 units).
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