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Nelly's Green Sheet

RATING 5 DETROIT (-1) over Green Bay

RATING 4 NY GIANTS (+2½) over Houston

RATING 3 SEATTLE (-4½) over Denver

RATING 2 BALTIMORE (PK) over Cleveland

RATING 1 TENNESSEE (+7) over Cincinnati
 
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CKO

11 *SEATTLE over Denver
Late Score Forecast:
*SEATTLE 31 - Denver 13

Seattle “bit” us on these pages last week, as San Diego was clearly more intense after the Chargers fumbled away
a golden opportunity in the closing minutes to pull an opening-game upset at Arizona. San Diego, intent on avoiding another of its chronic slow starts, owned the ball for 42 minutes and 15 seconds of the game, seriously restricting the Seattle offense, as Marshawn Lynch was limited to just six carries! Big-play WR/KR Percy Harvin made a big one for S.D., fumbling away a kickoff in the 30-21 loss. But if the recent past means anything, that poor performance by the reigning champs means mostly that they will be doubly-focused come Sunday, when the revenge-minded Broncos arrive in town. It will be the first game for Denver at CenturyLink Field since 2002. So Manning & Co. better get ready to “feel the noise,” as Russell Wilson has lost only one home game in his 2+Ys in the NFL, with a spread mark of 14-4-1.

NINE-RATED GAMES:
PITTSBURGH (+3½) at Carolina [NFL, Sun. Night Football]—Rested Steelers have the muscle,
QBing, and coaching to edge Cam (5 sacks last week) in Carolina

TOTALS:
OVER (41½) in the Baltimore-Cleveland Game—What’s this? The Browns suddenly have an offense?
OVER (51) in the Green Bay-Detroit Game—Packers’ offense came alive last week; Lions “over” 7 of last 10 at home
 
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Red Sheet

SEATTLE 33 - Denver 20 - (4:25) -- Line opened at Seattle minus 4½, and is still minus 4½. Oh, how the Broncos want
this one, after having to live with their 43-8 Super Bowl embarrassment for the past 8½ months. So
revenge is a given, right? Not quite, as Denver is not only travelling to the unquestioned toughest
venue in all of sports, but must take on mighty Seahawks, fresh off a rare pitiful performance, in losing
at SanDiego (12-FD, 276-180 PY deficits). Denver is yet to cover, & has been outscored 41-31, since
24-0 lead over Indy. Wilson & mates to bounce back in style. A Superior Play if it weren't for Manning.
RATING: SEATTLE 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): New Orleans, Giants, Jets
 
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Winning Points Newsletter

Best Bets
Baltimore over *Cleveland by 21

*Seattle over Denver by 21


Preferred

San Francisco over *Arizona by 13

*Jacksonville over Indianapolis by 4
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Handicap - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 90

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEARS OLD.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 TAKE A LOOK 3/1

# 6 OLD SIX SIX 5/2

# 3 TWO FOR REAL 4/1

I've got to go with TAKE A LOOK. Looks solid to be on the lead at the first call. Overall the speed figures of this horse look respectable in this contest. Have to sense that this equine will make a good showing again this time around. OLD SIX SIX - Has a solid shot for this race if you like back class. Recorded a very good speed figure last time out. TWO FOR REAL - Ran a strong last race. This filly has a very good win percent in short races.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Stockton - Race #8 - Post: 4:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ALERT IN CLASS (ML=3/1)
#4 VIOLATE (ML=5/2)


ALERT IN CLASS - I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this filly is ready to run today. The Jun 7th race at Emerald Downs was at a class level of (92). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so she should be in a good spot. VIOLATE - I have to like this filly's chances at the shorter distance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FIRST FLOWER (ML=2/1), #3 SANTA HELENA (ML=7/2), #1 FULL MOON PRINCESS (ML=5/1),

FIRST FLOWER - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint race in the last couple of months. Not the greatest of signals. SANTA HELENA - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance affairs in order to play her. Finished fifth in her most recent race with a quite unimpressive speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. FULL MOON PRINCESS - This less than sharp equine ran a disappointing speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's race running that rating.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 ALERT IN CLASS on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar


Emerald Downs - Race #4 - Post: 3:36pm - Starter Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 DOUBLE SHUFFLE (ML=5/1)
#1 BIG BAD BROWN (ML=2/1)
#3 CARL COMMAND (ML=7/2)


DOUBLE SHUFFLE - Lets try to beat the low-odds horses with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a decent race. Bowen is reunited today with this horse after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past. That 85 fig this gelding notched in his last clash tells me he's a main player in today's event. BIG BAD BROWN - Penney brings him right back. I advise you stick with this hot gelding. CARL COMMAND - I can't ignore the fact that this gelding is working extremely well. This jock and handler's animals have been producing a favorable return on investment.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CAN'T GET ENOUGH (ML=9/5), #4 NO CLAIM WILL DO (ML=4/1),

CAN'T GET ENOUGH - Finished first in his most recent performance with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. NO CLAIM WILL DO - The speed fig last out doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this mount as a possibly overvalued contestant.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #5 DOUBLE SHUFFLE on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,3,5] with [1,3,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] Total Cost: $36
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Mdws

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 78

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 21, 2014 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250. IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 BONIFIED MAN 9/2

# 3 JESS ANOTHER REB 7/2

# 1 COLOSSO 2/1

I think BONIFIED MAN is a strong choice. Has run solidly when moving a longer quarter horse race. The Equibase Speed Figure of 57 from his most recent contest looks solid in here. Could provide positive gains based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 74. JESS ANOTHER REB - Is a strong contender based on figures garnered as of late under today's conditions. Should be carefully examined for this race if only for the quite good Equibase speed fig recorded in the last affair. COLOSSO - He looks solid in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Win percentage with this rider and trainer combo - 16 percent - formidable.
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #2 - BELMONT PARK - 1:36 PM EASTERN POST

The Bertram F. Bongard Stakes
7.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#5 BULLHEADED BOY
#1 SARATOGA HEATER
#3 MARKET CONDUCT
#2 BANANA THIEF

The Bertram F. Bongard is named for one of the founding directors of the Eastern New York Thoroughbred Breeders' Association. He was also one of the original members and the former treasurer of the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. Additionally, Mr. Bongard was instrumental in promoting legislation for the New York Breeders' fund. Here in the 35th running of this stakes event for New York Breds, #5 BULLHEADED BOY, takes a slight class drop (-1), and is the overall speed leader in this stakes field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of his two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his "first asking." Jockey John Velazquez and Trainer Todd Pletcher send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 53% of more than 225 entries saddled as a team to date. #1 SARATOGA HEATER qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his maiden in his last start, which was just the 2nd race of his young career to date.
 
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MLB

Sunday, September 21

Trend Report

1:05 PM
TORONTO vs. NY YANKEES
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home

1:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MIAMI
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

1:35 PM
BOSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Boston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston

1:35 PM
NY METS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
NY Mets are 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:35 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

1:40 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. TAMPA BAY
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Chi White Sox are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

2:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home

2:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MINNESOTA
Cleveland is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Minnesota is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Cleveland

2:10 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

2:20 PM
LA DODGERS vs. CHI CUBS
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games

3:33 PM
TEXAS vs. LA ANGELS
Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing at home against Texas
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Texas

4:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. OAKLAND
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

4:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games when playing San Francisco
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Arizona's last 24 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Colorado's last 24 games when playing Arizona
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

8:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
 
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NEWSLETTER NFL Football Prediction From Indian Cowboy

Take #477 Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Carolina (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)

I am going to have one of my biggest football cards this weekend. And we are going to continue to give you free comp selections on every Sunday Night Football game. We enjoy fading the public, and that contest each night provides us a great opportunity to do just that and gives another element of consistency to our fabulous newsletter here at Docs. Per this contest, this is a fantastic opportunity for Pittsburgh to do well here and bury the public on the last weekday game on the board. Pittsburgh comes off a 6-26 loss to Baltimore, but it’s hard to fault Pitt here. Baltimore had an emotional game amid the Ray Rice scandal, the public was on Pittsburgh, the underdog in that contest, and the trap was set and the public took a hit. Similar situation here as the public is now on Carolina after their exciting 2-0 start to the year and 66% of the latest consensus polls backing Carolina coming off a big win over the Lions. However, the Lions were coming off a big win over the lowly Giants on Monday Night Football and were in a classic let down spot (that was another game where 66% of the public took the underdog in the Lions and got buried – it was our comp selection on Sunday). Look for another similar situation here as the public likely takes a hit, Pitt bounces back from a very poor performance in their last game losing by 20 points and Carolina has a classic let down here. If Carolina was truly expected to do well, you will see this line closer to -6.5 or even -7.5 to bury the public. But rather, you see them just as a small favorite here, which states that Pitt (similar to Philadelphia on Monday Night as a small underdog) is expected to do well here. Note, the Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games when facing a team with a winning home record, and the Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings to their credit. Let’s fade the public once again Sunday Night.
 
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NEWSLETTER NFL Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports

Take #460 New Orleans (-9.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)

It was an easy Bonus Play winner last week with the Bengals, and all I’ve been doing is handing out winners this year. I have gone 10-5 for over $3,200 in profit in college and the NFL combined, and I am 8-1 with my top plays with another pair of 7-Unit Plays coming this week. This is where the New Orleans Saints make a statement. The Minnesota Vikings are in a state of turmoil, and the New Orleans Saints are looking to absolutely destroy someone. What a perfect spot for New Orleans. The Saints are in front of their home crowd coming off two tough, tough loses, and they will be looking to just put it on the Vikings. New Orleans is 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games, while the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing home record. The Vikings have had some success versus New Orleans lately, especially in New Orleans, but not this time. The way that this game is setting up makes it feel that New Orleans is going to win by numerous touchdowns. This game has a 41-17 feel to it. The Saints defense hasn’t played well at all this season, but I see them really getting after the Vikings and causing havoc all over the field. Look for New Orleans to really take advantage of their quick-strike offense and put some of the naysayers to rest with a demolishing of Minnesota. Lay the big number in this one
 
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HARRY BONDI

NFL Bonus Play

UNDER 45 POINTS
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
1 p.m. ET

We’ll gladly go under on this inflated total as both teams are in low-scoring situations. Not only have the Jags averaged less than 14 points per game so far this season, but they are 5-10 to the under in their last 15 home games and have also gone under in eight of their last 14 divisional games. What’s more, the last six meetings in this series have all gone under the total, averaging just 34.5 points per game, which is more than 10 points less than today’s total. Go under!
 

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RickJ's Handicapping Picks Sunday NFL Play
1 Unit
St. Louis. +2.5
 

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