Sunday 9/21/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Comp NFL Pick for Sunday, September 21, 2014: 8:30 PM ET

(477) PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS (478) CAROLINA PANTHERS

Take: (477) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, Sept 21, 2014 is in the NFL game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers. A pair of conservative offenses with hard hitting defenses meet. Pittsburgh struggled on offense the last game at Baltimore getting 6 points and this is their second straight road game. The defense is 7th against the pass and held the Ravens to 5-12 on third down, and the Browns to 2-11 on third down. Despite failing to cover in each of its first two games this season, the Steelers are still 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 6-2 ATS when playing their last eight games on grass. But what I like most in this matchup is the fact that the Steelers have covered the last five meetings between these clubs. The Steelers have also been very efficient rushing the ball with a 4.9 yards per rush clip this season. Add to that the 5th best passing offense right now and the Steelers should be able to be there at the end. In their first two games the Steelers were favored, but here we are getting points and that will make all the difference. Your Bonus Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Allen Sports

SUN FREE Selection

MLB: STL CARDINALS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

1* Bonus Play New Orleans Saints

From a situational stand-point, there’s no question that this game has all the makings of an epic one-sided rout, I think the home side is worth a second look in this spot. Things could not have gone worse for New Orleans to open the year, it’s 0-2 out of the gates after losing 37-34 in Atlanta in Week 1 and then 26-24 in Cleveland last Sunday. But now the Saints return to New Orleans for their first game at home and with a massive chip on their collective shoulders, there’s no question the team will have something to prove this weekend. The Vikes on the other hand are coming off listless 30-7 loss at home to the Patriots and they’ve been rocked by scandal over the last week, star RB Adrian Peterson has been charged with child negligence. Peterson has been activated and de-activated a few times this week, the RB will not play on Sunday. Obviously this is a huge distraction for the team and is a major factor that New Orleans can take advantage of. Without their workhorse to lean on, I think the Vikes offense sputters this weekend. Note that Minnesota is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while the Saints are 11-5 ATS their last 16 in front of the home town crowd. All signs point to a comfortable NEW ORLEANS cover.

AAA Sports

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Adams

San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills

Bonus Play Buffalo Bills

San Diego is coming off a huge victory at home against the Seahawks, a team that many believe is the best in the NFL. Now the Chargers have to come down off of their high and travel across the country to play in an early start game against the Bills. The “Spot” clearly points to Buffalo here. The Bills are off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start. The “Look ahead” line for this game at the LVH/Westgate had the Chargers favored so the market has clearly adjusted.

The Chargers are dead last in the NFL in yards per play differential at -1.6 ypp. That’s a key stat that if not corrected soon, will be very detrimental for this team. The defense has also shown a vulnerability to the big play, a weakness that Buffalo will look to exploit.

The Bills are off a nice win home win against Miami on Sunday. They remain at home which gives them the entire week to prepare for the Chargers without having to worry about any travel. The spread in this game has already moved heavily in the Bills favor and will only continue to rise. I recommend getting in on the Bills as soon as possible.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins +6.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) have had two huge comebacks for victories. They came from 17 down to beat Jacksonville 34-17, and 14 down to defeat Indianapolis 30-27. The Washington Redskins (1-1) did not play well in a 6-17 loss to the Texans on the road in their opener, but bounced back with a 41-10 win over the Jaguars last week.

The Redskins are vastly improved over a year ago. I actually believe that the Robert Griffin III injury is a blessing in disguise because Kirk Cousins is the better quarterback. He had the second-best passer rating in the league last week in the win over Jacksonville. Cousins went 22 of 33 passing for 250 yards and two touchdowns without any picks to lead the team once Griffin III went down.

What I’ve been most impressed about the Redskins thus far is their improvement on defense. They are only giving up 13.5 points and 232.0 yards per game on the season. They registered a whopping 10 sacks against the Jaguars last week and lead the league in that department. It’s amazing what this stop unit can do when healthy, which wasn’t the case last season.

Indeed, the Redskins went just 3-13 last season, yet they hung tough in both of their losses to the Eagles. They lost 27-33 at home and 16-24 on the road. They put up an average of over 400 yards per game of total offense in the two losses as well.

They should have no problem moving the football on an Eagles defense that is really banged up right now. Mychal Kendricks went out against the Colts last week with an injury and probably won’t be back this week. Najee Goode is on the IR with a torn pectoral muscle. These two linebackers are irreplaceable.

The Eagles have certainly looked vulnerable in their first two games. They trailed 17-0 to the Jaguars before rallying in the second half for a victory. They were also behind 20-6 against the Colts before rallying for a 30-27 win.

They used a ton of energy in trying to make that comeback on Monday Night Football. Now, they will be on a short week against a Redskins team that only had to go through the motions in the second half against the Jaguars and will be plenty rested because of it.

Plays against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) – team with a poor scoring defense last season – allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1983. The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Eagles are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games. Bet the Redskins Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams

Sunday's Free NFL Pick ---Dallas Cowboys -1

The Cowboys bounced back in a big way after that ugly loss at home to the 49ers in Week 1, as they went on the road and defeated a good Tennessee team rather easily 26-10. There was a lot of talk coming into the season of just how bad this Dallas team was going to be, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but that hasn't been the case at all. Dallas comes in ranked in the top half of the league against both the run (13th) and the pass (14th).

Hard to not like that motivated Cowboys defense against a St Louis offense that is playing with backup quarterback Shaun Hill. The Rams haven't been impressive at all in their two games. They've scored just 25 points this season and are 16th in passing (233 ypg) and 23rd in rushing (95.5 ypg). I just don't see St Louis being able to score enough to keep up with the high-powered Cowboys' offense that hasn't hit its stride yet.

One of the big keys here for Dallas is they have arguably the best offensive line in the game, which is going to allow them to run the football and wear down the Rams strong front. With the offense not being able to sustain long drives, this St Louis defense figures to be on the field a lot and I look for the Cowboys to really open this one up in the 2nd half. BET THE COWBOYS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Keselowski taken to new Vegas heights
By: Micah Roberts

The beginning of NASCAR's 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup couldn't have kicked off any better. Brad Keselowski is now riding a tidal wave of victories, from dominating at Richmond two weeks ago to winning last week at Chicago.

What do you make of him? Is he a villain? Or is he the breath of fresh air some have waited for in this era of Jimmie Johnson dominance?

It wasn't too long ago he was wetting his beak in the top series and earning the nickname 'Brad Crash-a-lot-ski' from a few prominent Cup drivers thanks to his ultra-aggressive driving and some early mistakes. But now he's starting to repeat 2012, a year he won Chicago to kick off the Chase en route to winning the title.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has made a major adjustment on the odds to win Sunday's Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway just because of what we have seen recently with Keselowski. And it's not about winning two consecutive races coming in, but rather winning two consecutive races on a specific type of track.

He's been posted at 7-to-2 odds, which is a major price reduction from what we've seen all season, where three to four drivers have been favorites in the 5-to-1 range. At one time, four drivers were considered equal almost everywhere. By posting Keselowski so low, it's saying that Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano are only secondary figures and the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford should be in victory lane for a series-leading sixth time this season.

Because New Hampshire's flat 1-mile layout requires almost the same set-up as Richmond or Phoenix, we can group them all together, and the cool thing about it being this late in the season is that there are four races of data to scroll through.

The best handicapping practice for this race is to look at what's happened in the last two events on the similar tracks. So let's see: Keselowski led 383 of the 400 laps at Richmond on Sept. 6 and then on July 13 he led 138 laps en route to a win at New Hampshire. That's 2-for-2 on recent tracks that are most critical to the number.

If we go back further to include the other two like-track races, Keselowski finished fourth at Richmond in April and third at Phoenix in March. No one in the series has a resume even close to being as good. Logano won at the first Richmond race and Harvick won at Phoenix. Gordon finished second twice at Richmond this season, but Keselowski is a notch above all which is why he owns such low odds this week.

So who has the best shot at upsetting Keselowski?

Jeff Gordon (6-1): So what if he hasn't won at New Hampshire since his magical season of 1998? He's still the top contender to beat Keselowski. This guy is on a major rekindle tour and is savoring all the moments fans are giving him because of being the villain of sorts (an entirely different story) for the duration of his career. He's led a track-high 1,271 laps over his career and has a 9.8 average finish over his last 20 winless starts. Thanks to runner-up finishes at both Richmond races, Gordon is the non-Penske driver to key on.

Clint Bowyer (25-1): He could have never imagined his Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota would fail to win a race after their theatrics last season at Richmond. His engine has been tired and way behind all the top teams for most of the 2014 season, but we have seen some power from Toyota in the Joe Gibbs garages as well as MWR teammate Brian Vickers.

Two weeks ago at Richmond, Bowyer was trying to race himself into the Chase and failed, but he did finish third. In the first New Hampshire race, he finished sixth. This is his type of track.

He won his first career Cup race here and he's won two times overall. Richmond is his other signature track. So with a Toyota upgrade, Bowyer's natural skills on these tracks, he might be the best candidate at double-digit odds to win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocky Atkinson

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Rocketman Sports FREE NFL play Sunday 9-21-14 Washington @ Philadelphia 1:00 PM EST

Play On: Washington +6 1/2

The Washington Redskins travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. Washington is 1-1 on the season while Philadelphia is 2-0 overall this year. Washington offense is averaging 410.5 yards per game this year while their defense has been solid allowing only 232 total yards per game. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS last 3 years at home. Washington is allowing only 13.5 points per game overall this year. Washington is 6-1 ATS last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Philadelphia is 7-21-1 ATS last 29 home games. Road team is 10-4-1 ATS last 15 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Washington today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Houston Texans vs. NY Giants

Chip's FREE NFL Winner NY Giants

Giants (+/-) over Texans- Well, I'm either going to look like a complete idiot or the least a persistent bastard for using the hapless Giants this week. Okay here we have it an 0-2 team favored over a 2-0 teams makes me scratch my head. Especially when I see the Giants are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games in September but, I also see the Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven on fieldturf. New YorK gets into the WIN column Sunday. Take GIANTS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Hochman

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Bonus Play San Francisco 49ers

These two teams are very familiar with each other and that will favor the more "hungrier" team if you will. The 49ers are 9-1 SU against the Cardinals of late. San Francisco has swept the Cardinals in two straight seasons, so you might say they have Arizona's number. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Week 3. I like the 49ers to bounce back after last Sunday night's meltdown. The Cardinals played on the East Coast and will travel back home while the 49ers won't have to travel as far. Light play on the road chalk.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Bonus Play Jacksonville Jaguars

The 0-2 Jags will play their first home game of the season this Sunday and Im expecting they will be very ready to compete in front of their own fans. I know Indy really needs a win after a 0-2 start, but on a short weeks rest, and in a letdown situation after Mondays hurtful 30-27 loss to Philly, might not be the quality bet many might think. I personally like a first half wager on Jacksonville, with the mind set , that they will start strong (1/2 unit wager). At +7 a 1/2 unit wager on Jacksonville, is my recommendation and just 1/4 unit at +6.5. If your going to play this game, wait towards kick off (weekend)- as the best possible numbers may be available with the influx of public money at that time.

Note: I know alot of key trends side with the better team (Indy) and QB (Andrew Luck) but I am taking a contrarian view and stand with this contest.

Play on the Jacksonville Jags 1/2 unit first half wager - at +7 or better another 1/2 unit selection (Full game) is recommended

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams

Bonus Play St. Louis Rams +102

I like the Rams to win this game outright. If you look at the 2 teams you would think that Dallas would be Favorited by 3-7 points, but it is such a low number. Vegas is trying to get people to bit on the Cowboys. Im not falling for it I like the Rams at home to win this one and get to 2-1 on the season.

Pick= Rams +102

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Free NFL Football Prediction From Doc’s Sports: Take #456 Philadelphia over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)

I have handed out FOUR straight Bonus Play winners in this space, and I want to keep it rolling! I won with the Eagles on Monday Night Football to cap a winning NFL Week 2, and I think I’ll go right back to them here. I think the Eagles have more momentum off their comeback win over Washington than the Redskins gained by blowing out the Jaguars. There is no doubt that Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback – by a wide margin – than Bob Griffin. But there are still some fundamental problems with Washington, particularly in the secondary, and the Eagles should exploit those weaknesses. Philadelphia is going to be nearly impossible to beat at home this season, and I think that they are going to wear teams down and tack on those extra couple fourth quarter scores to keep them ahead of a lot of lines. They have won their last five regular season home games by an average of 17 points and those differentials were by 17, 43, 14, 3 and 8 points. Even if you kick out the 43-point outlier the other four wins were by an average of 10.5 points per game. The Eagles are only 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games. But those numbers are set up for a huge regression, and I can see the Eagles going 6-2 or 7-1 ATS this season on their own turf. This Philadelphia team is one of the best in football. And even though Washington has some solid defensive stats working in their favor they have also faced Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne this year. This will be the best offense the Eagles have faced to date, and I don’t know that they’re up for it. The action is split almost 50-50 in this game, and the Redskins are taking the lion’s share of the moneyline action. But this isn’t a 50-50 game at all. Philadelphia will pull away late, and I can see them winning this one by between 13-17 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ross Benjamin

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

Bonus Play: New Orleans -9.5

It doesn't matter to me whether the Vikings have Adrian Peterson available or not. I'm of the opinion that by early in the 2nd half they will become one-dimensional offensively, resulting from having to play from a better than 2-touchdown deficit, and they'll have to abandon the run. When that occurs, Matt Cassel will be asked to carry the load, and we saw what happened last week (4-interceptions) against New England when he was asked to do so.

The Saints come off two gut wrenching losses on the road to open the season. They lost in overtime 37-34 at Atlanta in the season opener, and then on the final play of regulation time last week in a 26-24 defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Browns. The Saints have gone a terrific 14-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 12.0 or less following a straight up loss since 9/28/2010, and that includes a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS in the last 7, with an average margin of victory being a whopping 22.2 points per game. This is also a New Orleans team that's went a perfect 8-0 at home in 2013, and covered in 7 of those 8-games.

In case you're wondering, any NFL home favorite that comes off 2 road losses in a row, and each came by 3-points or less, has gone 10-2 SU&ATS since 1980. It's a rare occurrence for sure, and the sample size leaves a lot to be desired, but nevertheless, an extremely profitable situation for the home favorite.

Any home favorite of 3.5 or more, coming off back-to-back straight up losses as an away favorite, has gone 17-5 ATS since 1980. Play on the New Orleans Saints minus the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Free Pick on Philadelphia Eagles -

I'm taking the Eagles to cover at home over the Redskins. Philadelphia has yet to play a complete game and I believe it's got them undervalued at home in a division matchup against Washington. The Redskins are getting some love here after that impressive win over the Jaguars, but I'm not sold on this team being a serious contender. That doesn't cover up their ugly loss to the Texans in Week 1, where they managed to score just 6 points.

Last year the Eagles offense had no problem moving the ball against the Redskins defense. Philly put up 443 yards and 33 points in the first meeting and 402 yards and 24 points in the second matchup. They showed they could move the ball both through the air and on the ground. They had 263 rushing yards in one game and 276 yards passing in the other.

I know Washington's defense has looked strong early, but that's largely due to who they have played. Houston has been one of the most conservative offenses through the first two weeks and there's no explanation needed for Jacksonville. They have been one of the worst offensive teams for a several years.

Another big key that is getting overlooked is the Eagles are a better defensive team than they get credit for and will be going up against a Redskins team that lost starting quarterback RGII and could potentially be without wide out DeSean Jackson, who is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Taking the points with Washington has not been a wise investment lately. The Redskins are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games when listed as an underdog. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 versus the NFC, 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 250 or less total yards, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Take Philadelphia!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills 1:00PM

Buffalo Bills

Edges - Bills: 3-0 ATS in this series; and 5-1 ATS home with Marrone. Chargers: 1-8 ATS away vs AFC East opponents; and 2-8 ATS after Seahawks.? With NFL teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champions a paltry 6-29 SU and 7-28 ATS away versus opponents off a win in their next game, and the Chargers on the East Coast in an early start, we recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.? Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins


*3 Star NFL Free Pick* Miami Dolphins


The Miami Dolphins lost last week in Buffalo, but I think they'll get back on track with a win Sunday against a Chiefs team that isn't very good right now. The Dolphins defense is underrated by many, and I believe they'll have a very solid season. Jamaal Charles might play, but he is dinged up. D'Anthony Thomas won't play on offense and Eric Berry won't play on defense for the Chiefs. Berry is the leader of this secondary, and that's a huge loss. Ryan Tannehill has shown improvement in the past year, and he has a good offensive line in front of him this year. Buffalo took advantage of a bunch of Miami mistakes to win that game last week. Expect Miami to clean it up this week as they come back home and take care of business. Take Miami.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Carlo Campanella

Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams

10* Play Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys (1-1) looked rusty in their season opener while committing 4 Turnovers when losing at San Francisco, 28-17. They put it all together last Sunday, beating a 1-1 Tennessee crew, 26-10, while rushing for 202 yards. That will be the Boy's game plan again this Sunday in St. Louis against a Rams' defense that can't stop the run, already allowing 157 and 186 rushing yards in it's first 2 games! Just look towards last year's 31-7 Cowboys win over the Rams when they dominated the line of scrimmage and rushed the ball 34 times for 197 yards during their 24 point home victory. While we're not usually excited about backing the Cowboys and mistake prone QB Romo, they face a St. Louis team playing with starting QB Bradford and their back-up QBs won't be enough to keep pace with the Cowboy's and RB Demarco Murry. Willing to lay a point in a game Dallas needs to win to stay in the Playoff chase.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Houston Texans at New York Giants 1:00PM

5* Houston Texans

Reason: 5* Play on Houston. New York's new-look offense has not delivered immediate results, with the Giants scoring just 14 points in each of their first two games while also committing six turnovers combined. We'll fade the Giants here at home and back Houston as they are off to a fast 2-0 SU and ATS start.

We know the Texans haven't had the toughest schedule to start the year, but after a massive losing streak last year, new head coach Bill O'Brien has clearly won this team over and they have looked impressive with a pair of double-digit victories. These two teams confidence levels are miles apart right now, and given the state of New York's offense we don't trust them to keep up with a Houston offense that has run the ball very well. Giants now 0-6 at the betting window in the month of September dating back to last year, and that streak continues with another dismal effort this Sunday! 5* Play on Houston.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Rematch'

The eyes of football fans, as well as those focused on football betting, will be on the late afternoon Super Bowl rematch as the Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (1-1 SU/ATS). Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 25-8 SU record with a profitable 24-9 mark against the betting line including 13-5 ATS as a home favorite, sportsbooks have the defending Champions 4.5 to 5.0 point favorite. Sifting through betting numbers since 2000, teams claiming the Lombardi Trophy have won 64.6% of their games the following regular season (146-80). Add the great equalizer (point spread) they become a coin flip against the betting line posting a 113-108-5 ATS record overall but do have a decent 57-47-2 ATS mark as home chalk. However, Buyer Beware - Seems the first half is when Champs have the most difficulty covering as opponents are on a mission to prove themselves early in the season. Champs are 50-51-2 against-the-number over the first eight games including 13-14 ATS off a SU loss the previous week. Final betting nugget. Super Bowl Runner-ups are 29-26-1 ATS as road underdogs.