Sunday 9/21/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Vance Worley to start on Sunday against Brewers
By David Manel

The Pirates announced that Charlie Morton experienced "increased discomfort" in the latter innings of his last start and again during his bullpen session. He is scheduled to have a follow-up exam next week and then a decision will be made how to proceed.

Vance Worley will start Sunday in Morton's absence.

Morton was unsure if this setback signaled the end to his 2015 season.

"[The pain] is very different," Morton said. "The degree and the intensity of the discomfort is different than it has been in three months."

Clint Hurdle said no final decision will be made on Morton until after his reevaluation.

Hurdle was not concerned about Worley showing any rust after being skipped in the rotation.

"I think more often that not it is a great idea to have a guy skip [a start] sometime during the season," Hurdle said. "To skip a start, for me, is smart thing to do from time to time ... [Worley's] had a very solid major league workload since he has been up, compared to last year. I think this was a good opportunity for him to catch his breath."

 

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MLB roundup: Marlins' Fernandez to start throwing
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Injured Miami Marlins ace Jose Fernandez was cleared to start throwing Oct. 1 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, according to the Associated Press.

The right-hander received clearance to throw after meeting with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Thursday. ElAttrache performed Fernandez's elbow surgery in May.

"A lot of good news came out of that in going up there and seeing him so I'm really excited," Fernandez said. "I'm feeling great. I'm feeling like I didn't have the surgery so I think that's good news."

The 22-year-old had the surgery on May 16. Throwing programs usually start about four months after Tommy John surgery, which places Fernandez on schedule. He will start off by throwing for about three to four minutes at 30-45 feet.

Recovery from Tommy John surgery usually takes about 12 to 18 months.


---Hall of Fame first baseman Willie McCovey was hospitalized last week related to complications from an infection, the San Francisco Giants announced Friday night.

McCovey, the 1969 National League MVP who hit 521 career home runs, was being treated at a Bay Area hospital. The team said his recovery was progressing.

McCovey played 19 of his 22 major league seasons with the Giants. The team still keeps in close contact with him and he makes numerous appearances at AT&T Park and other team functions.

McCovey, 76, played from 1959-80. He batted .270 with 1,555 RBI.


---Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu threw off a flat surface before Saturday's game as the first step in his return from a sore left shoulder. Ryu's return date remains uncertain.

"If it goes well, then he'll just continue to ramp up a little bit," manager Don Mattingly said. "See if there's any pain. Kind of push the intensity."


---Detroit Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who went on the disabled list Aug. 9 because of a strained right pectoralis, will throw a simulated game Sunday.


---St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter and first baseman Matt Adams weren't in the lineup because of a stomach bug.



---Cincinnati Reds right-hander Mat Latos (right elbow) is still hoping to make a start in the season's final week. Latos has missed his last two starts because of a bone bruise.


---New York Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury missed the game because of a strained right hamstring but sounded hopeful that he would be able to play before the season ends since he said he was feeling better.

Manager Joe Girardi said that Ellsbury would miss a few days and could miss the remaining nine games.


---Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Adam Lind missed the game after his back tightened up and this marked at least the second time he has dealt with a back problem since he missed 17 games with a back injury from April 19-May 8.

 

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Three ways you should wager on MLB playoff clinchers

When it comes to clinching MLB teams, bettors beware.

Teams that secure playoff berths with games to spare have a tendency to tinker with their rosters heading into the postseason, and that has had a significant impact on the outcomes of their games over the past three years.

Here are three trends worth monitoring when it comes to betting on - or against - teams that already know they're headed to the playoffs:

In the Playoffs? Take it Easy

In each of the past three years, teams that have clinched a division title or wild-card berth have performed well below their previous winning pace for the remainder of the regular season. Last season, teams entered their stretch of largely meaningless games with a cumulative .590 winning percentage but won at just a .520 clip the rest of the way. The difference was less pronounced in both 2012 (.578 to .545) and 2013 (.598 to .569), but still significant to bettors.

"While they're still playing for home-field advantage, if teams have already clinched a spot, then the games generally no longer mean quite as much," says Ben Burns. "This can sometimes lead to regulars getting some extra rest and/or to a dropoff in overall intensity level."

Bettors should bear this in mind when considering how to approach the three teams that have already secured their division: Washington, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Angels.

The Orioles finish against three likely non-playoff teams in Boston, the Yankees and Toronto, and will almost assuredly give their regulars some rest. The same may apply to the Nationals, who end with seven straight home games against the Mets and Marlins. The Angels finish with six road games against Oakland and Seattle - both fighting for a playoff spot - and should face a steady stream of regulars in both series, making them likely underdogs throughout.

Value as an underdog

While division and wild-card clinchers lose virtually all value as a favorite the rest of the way, they're still hot plays as underdogs. Last year's top teams went 6-4 as underdogs down the stretch, while clinchers finished 11-11 as dogs in 2012 and 6-6 in 2011.

That doesn't necessarily make them a super-hot play moving forward, but consider that underdogs this season are converting at just under 43 percent this year - and haven't been higher than 43.14 percent over the past three years. With no clincher underdog winning percentage lower than 50 percent in any of the previous three seasons, they do represent a slightly better play compared to the norm.

Given the three teams presently locked into playoff spots, only the Angels appear to be obvious underdog candidates. The moneylines for the other two teams will depend heavily on whether they decide to rest starting pitchers or position players. Los Angeles probably won't be favored in any of its final six games, unless the Athletics and/or Mariners somehow fall out of playoff contention before then.

Shrinking totals

Totals bets are always a dicey proposition, but there's evidence - at least in the short-term - to suggest that clinchers play lower-scoring games down the stretch. The qualifying teams posted a 19-29-2 O/U mark in 2013 and a 20-34-1 O/U record in 2012.

Even an Over-heavy result in 2011 - teams went 27-21-3 - comes with an explanation. The Milwaukee Brewers (5-0 O/U down the stretch) were playing for National League playoff seeding and boasted a pair of sensational offensive weapons in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (who was still competing for the batting title.), while the Detroit Tigers (11-4-1 O/U down the stretch) led the majors with a .280 average and had incredible lineup depth.

So why the strong Under results?

"Likely just a product of watered down talent with September call-ups taking may spots in the order," says Sean Murphy. "Pitchers aren't given quite as much rest, as it's generally better for them to stay on schedule leading up to the postseason."

 

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Balmoral: Sunday 9/21 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS


Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (37 - 70 / $149.80): HOMICIDE HUNTER (5th)

Spot Play: CARDINAL WIND (2nd)


Race 1

In a wide open field full of inconsistent trotters (3) BAGS FOR ALL could be the sleeper in the field racing for the first time for new connections that win a lot in this scenario. (1) TWINMAPLE CANDACE filly has a ton of ability, gets the best post, and should offer a nice price. (2) PALE ALE could show some improvement second start for a new trainer.

Race 2

(4) CARDINAL WIND picks up a big driver change and should be ready for a better effort. (1) FOX VALLEY CICERO has been progressing throughout the year and finds a softer spot. (3) SAINT SIMEON is capable of trotting a good mile if he minds his manners.

Race 3

(4) MAJESTIC ROYALE was razor sharp in this barn a few starts prior. (7) NANCYS SKYSCAPE got a perfect drive last out scoring at a price. The pacer could be a bit overlooked while having more to offer. (1) DOTS BIGBOY is better on the big track with his racing style; fires late.

Race 4

(1) MOLLY GO LIGHTLY will be used very aggressively against a much softer bunch. (1A) CUZIMALEGEND has really had a tough time late in the mile but has paced faster than most of the field. (5) FOX VALLEY SHIVER owns a good burst of speed and could pick up the pieces late if the top choices falter.

Race 5

(5) HOMICIDE HUNTER is having a fantastic year and should win with a good effort. (1) MAC KEMP has been racing over his head his whole career and now finds a good spot to learn how to compete. (4) STONEBRIDGE ULTIMO well bred mare probably can go a lot faster than she shows.

Race 6

(1) NATIVE LIGHTS has been unstoppable for new connections but was running in a lot last out which could cost him late at some point. (5) LD'S DASH can fly out of the gate which puts him in a great spot turning for home. (4) READY needs a smooth trip for his best chance and is best used underneath.

Race 7

(1) ALWAYS TALKING filly is well bred and has flashed ability at this level. (2) JOVANNA races very inconsistently but can jump up with a good one from time to time. (4) SECONDS LATER will offer low value and rarely wins; use caution.

Race 8

(7) IMNOTASONOFABEACH pacer has shown the ability to go a big three-quarters of a mile and just needs more late. (5) GABBY REI has just been racing evenly but does get good post relief in an evenly matched field. (8) MARZY BEARZY well bred filly could get good spot out of the gate making her dangerous late.

Race 9

(7) LADY LAKER needed her last start and raced gamely. (6) CELEBRITY HERCULES does his best racing at this track and is one of few threats to the top choice. (4) POWERFUL SPEED has a terrible breaking problem at the track but is a very fast trotter.

Race 10

(2) R DUNESHINE gelding had no excuse last out and is 0 for the year, however a good effort puts him in the mix; threat. (5) SUNSET DREAMER has turned a corner and finds an easier bunch. (4) WELL DUNE has the best closing kick in the field but needs a good setup.

 

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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington Park (5th) Pirates Vow, 7-2
(6th) Hey Pretty Boy, 5-1

Belmont Park (1st) Path to Power, 4-1
(4th) Temper Mint Patty, 4-1


Belterra Park (1st) Recovery Girl, 4-1
(2nd) Here's Decash, 7-2


Churchill Downs (1st) Lost Kodiak, 7-2
(4th) Whiskey Runner, 7-2


Emerald Downs (2nd) Ifsowhynot, 3-1
(6th) Park That Truck, 7-2


Fort Erie (4th) Portomaso, 9-2
(9th) Pegu, 5-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Cosmic Crown, 4-1
(7th) Quiet Hour, 6-1


Hastings Park (1st) Little Blossom, 4-1
(6th) Sedin, 4-1


Los Alamitos (2nd) Fly High, 4-1
(7th) Zoom Bag, 8-1


Louisiana Downs (1st) Brother Day, 4-1
(4th) Catch This Fish, 4-1


Monmouth Park (2nd) Pepe, 7-2
(4th) Gene's Blue Moon, 5-1


Mountaineer (1st) Lite Up the Stage, 6-1
(2nd) II Mangia Troppo, 3-1

Presque Isle Downs (1st) Rage and Ruin, 3-1
(6th) Pyro City, 7-2


Thistledown (3rd) Cash Conversion, 4-1
(8th) Sing the Blues, 3-1


Woodbine (5th) Drago's Best, 4-1
(8th) Spin Wild, 8-1

 

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#1 Sports

Early Sunday's free selection: New England Patriots - 14

 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: Cincinnati -6½ Over Tennessee

 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY :Take DALLAS/ST LOUIS OVER the total of 44

 

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Totals4U

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Houston Texans/New York Giants over 41 1/2

 

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Atlantic Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Atlanta Braves - 115

 

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Computer Sports

Free Selection Sunday: Colts -7

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: Miami Dolphins -3½ Over Kansas City

 

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Free Selection Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Seattle

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Houston/New York Giants over 41

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: Baltimore Ravens -2

 

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Dr. Vegas

Free Selection Sunday: Minnesota +9.5

 

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Sunday: Take INDIANAPOLIS -7 over Jacksonville

 

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Sunday: Arizona Cardinals + 3

 

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John Anthony Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Packers/Lions over 52

 

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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday 1:00 PM

(467) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT (468) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

PLAY: (468) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7

I’ve already lost count of the number of times I’ve heard the following this week: This is a must win game for the Colts.

I love hearing that stuff. Not that I’m disagreeing with the assessment that this is an absolutely huge game for Indy. It most certainly is exactly that, as an 0-3 start would be, if not disastrous, very bad news at the very least.

But must win has never meant will win, and my experience is that the burden of high expectations is not the best thing in the world for any team in any sport, especially when said team is not playing well.

The Colts are struggling. The running game is ordinary, the offensive line play has been spotty and the Colts defense is apparently even worse than some pessimists thought it might be. Andrew Luck is a brilliant talent at QB, but he’s not getting much help right now.

As for Jacksonville, they’ve been astonishingly awful since getting ahead of the Eagles by a 17-0 count in Week One. There was certainly nothing positive to garner from the blowout loss at Washington last Sunday. This team is just plain lousy on offense, and I don’t see much chance of that changing to any extent this season. But in spite of the last six quarters, I’m not as down on the Jaguars defense. I don’t think it’s a high level outfit, but I’d probably rate the Jags stop unit just a little below league average. Their biggest problem might end up being that they get worn down because the offense can’t sustain drives.

I’m not about to try and sell the Jaguars here as a team I’m wild about backing. Their running game is an absolute joke, and anyone who’s followed me over the years knows how vital rushing stats are to me. It makes no difference to me how the game has evolved over the years. It’s still a constant that teams that run well and defend the ground game successfully win football games.

This is mostly anti-Colts. Bad defensive teams make bad favorites, especially on the road, and even more especially in divisional duels. And right now Indianapolis is a very bad defensive football team. I would expect they’ll be able to amass some better stats on that side of the ball this Sunday. But I also can see the lowly Jaguars being able to get some things down on offense.

I can’t call for an outright upset, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility. However, I do feel pretty confident the Jaguars will give the Colts a good game and that’s pretty much all they need to do to have a great chance to cover this number. I’ll grab the TD with the Jaguars to get me paid on Sunday.