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SuperContest Picks - Week 3

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 3 Consensus Picks (Number of Selections)

1) Washington +6.5 (373)
2) Indianapolis -6.5 (352)
3) N.Y. Giants +2 (344)
4) Cincinnati -6.5 (332)
5) Dallas -1.5 (328)

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS


2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 - - -
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 3
By Matty Simo

After sportsbooks won the first two weeks of the NFL season, they are already looking to rally back from an early deficit following a 56-14 rout by the Atlanta Falcons over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Atlanta kicked off Week 3 NFL betting action with an easy win, one that Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, saw coming.

“Awful – I just knew it was going to come in, I just couldn’t do anything about it,” Avello said about bettors backing the Falcons, who opened as 5.5-point favorites. “I thought about going to 7 like three days ago because I knew we would be pressing 7, and we ended up going to 6.5 laying -120. I guess the bets on that game were probably 7-to-1 on the Falcons.

“A lot of my big money came in late, and that was the killer. I already had money on them. Then the late money really buried me. Sometimes you catch a team on a bad week, and I guess they caught Tampa on a bad week. Right from the first drive, you could tell this team’s in trouble. But Atlanta’s a very good team at home. It was a great spot for Atlanta, and the bettors were all over it.”

Sportsbooks will now try to make up some ground with Sunday’s slate, which features a Super Bowl XLVIII rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos in the biggest game of Week 3. The Seahawks opened as 5-point favorites and remained there as of Friday afternoon. Seattle blew away the Broncos 43-8 in the last meeting for the Vince Lombardi Trophy back on Feb. 2. The defending champs will have a significant home-field advantage, especially since it should be much cooler than it was for the team’s game last week in San Diego where they lost 30-21 to the Chargers.

“That Seattle game last week, I didn’t realize that the field was so hot,” Avello said. “That must have taken some steam out of them. I’m sure that they didn’t come into the game taking it lightly, because they knew that this team is a team this year that could possibly be reckoned with.”

There has not been much line movement in most of the games yet other than a half-point here or there. The one exception so far is the Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, who opened as 1-point favorites and are now up to -3. Both teams are coming off opposite results, as Chicago came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the San Francisco 49ers 28-20 as 7-point road underdogs last Sunday night while New York blew a 21-3 lead in a 31-24 road loss to the Green Bay Packers as 7-point dogs.

“The Bears are coming off of a good primetime game last week,” Avello said. “The Jets had a good showing in the first half, I don’t know what happened after that. They played a team that can catch you even if you’re up three scores. I don’t know if the Bears are that type of team.

“This looks like it will be a closer game throughout. At least it looks that way. Cutler to me is a lot like (Philip) Rivers, he can give you a good half or a full good game, but he always throws that pick or something at the end of the game.”

According to Avello, another game of note from a betting perspective is the Dallas Cowboys visiting the St. Louis Rams as 1-point favorites, with each of them getting their first wins of the season last week. “I think everybody wants to play Dallas, they had a good showing last week,” Avello said. We’ll see if that trend continues come Sunday, it may.”

Two divisional games worth watching include the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Cleveland Browns in an AFC North battle and the Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North showdown. The Ravens opened as 1-point road favorites and have moved to -1.5 while the Lions are -2.5 at home.

“Cleveland with a big win last week,” Avello said. “Has that team really turned the corner now? I don’t know, we’ll see. Baltimore plays a very boring style of football. When these teams meet, they are hard games to watch. They’re not games that the National Football League has drawn out to be exciting.

“I think a lot of the (Lions-Packers) games are decided within the point spread of 7. It’s usually a close game. Green Bay doesn’t look like they’re destroying anybody on the road.”

Finally, another huge matchup in primetime is the Sunday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers. The defending NFC South champion Panthers have looked impressive in starting 2-0 following a 24-7 victory against the Lions in Week 2 while the Steelers have had some extra time off after losing badly to the Ravens 26-6 on Thursday Night Football. Carolina opened -3 (-120) at The Wynn and has remained there most of the week, hitting a high of -3.5 (-120) on Wednesday.

“What that kind of shows you is that there’s a little bit of weight on Carolina’s side, home field and maybe a little extra,” Avello said. “Carolina’s looked really good so far. But then it’s a huge game for Pittsburgh certainly. That’s another one of those isolated games on Sunday night, so we’ll see where the money comes in late.”


Week 3 Betting Moves per the SuperBook in Las Vegas

Rotation Team Open Current Move
451 CHARGERS - - -
452 BILLS 1 2.5 1.5
453 COWBOYS 1.5 1 .5
454 RAMS - - -
455 REDSKINS - - -
456 EAGLES 6.5 6.5 0
457 TE-ANS 2.5 2 -0.5
458 GIANTS - - -
459 VIKINGS - - -
460 SAINTS 9.5 9.5 0
461 TITANS - - -
462 BENGALS 7 7 0
463 RAVENS 0 1.5 1.5
464 BROWNS - - -
465 PACKERS - - -
466 LIONS 0 2.5 2.5
467 COLTS 7 7 0
468 JAGUARS - - -
469 RAIDERS - - -
470 PATRIOTS 13.5 14 0.5
471 49ERS 2.5 3 0.5
472 CARDINALS - - -
473 BRONCOS - - -
474 SEAHAWKS 4.5 4.55 0
475 CHIEFS - - -
476 DOLPHINS 5.5 4.5 -1
477 STEELERS - - -
478 PANTHERS 3 3.5 0.5
479 BEARS - - -
480 JETS 1.5 3 1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David

Week 2 Recap

For the second consecutive week bettors watched the ‘under’ go 9-7 in the NFL, which brings the season numbers to 18-14 (56%). If you happened to follow the games live or viewed replays, you could argue that the ‘under’ should’ve performed better.

The Saints-Browns ‘over’ cashed with a late field goal and the 49ers-Bears helped the cause with 21 points in the final 15 minutes. The one outcome that likely pissed off some ‘under’ bettors was the Texans-Raiders game. Houston was up 30-7 late in the fourth and Oakland decides to work on its two minute drill. Sure enough, they drive down the field calling timeouts, converting fourth downs and end up scoring a meaningless touchdown to push the game ‘over’ the number (41). What was probably more comical is that Oakland head coach Dennis Allen attempted an onside kick after the score with 18 seconds left. If your offshore outfit has a prop bet on which coach gets canned first, sprinkle a little on DA.

Divisional Battles

We have five divisional matchups this week and two of them are expected to be shootouts with numbers in the fifties. Keep in mind that there were six games last week that had totals listed at 49 points or higher and the ‘under’ went 4-2 in those contests. This week, there are only four games in that neighborhood which tells me the oddsmakers believe the “Fantasy Football” tendencies in the NFL are slowly declining.

Washington at Philadelphia: This total is hovering between 50 and 51 points, which is a tad lower than the two meetings last season (51.5, 54.5). Most would believe this total would come down to the Eagles offense against the Redskins defense but I’d be careful to overlook the Washington offense. Last week, backup quarterback Kirk Cousins had 10 possessions and the Redskins scored six times (34 points) with him under center. It was against Jacksonville but Philadelphia’s offense only managed 24 versus that same unit in Week 1.

Baltimore at Cleveland: (See Below)

Green Bay at Detroit: This is the highest total (53) listed in Week 3. Despite the expectations for fireworks, the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and four of the last five encounters between the pair at Ford Field have gone ‘under’ the number.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: This is a tough total to handicap in my opinion. The Jaguars and Colts have both watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their first two games but the trend in this series is to expect a low-scoring affair. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and we haven’t seen a game with more than 40 combined points scored during this span.

San Francisco at Arizona: Similar to the Colts-Jags matchup, this total is a toss-up and the low total (42) does provide some insight on both teams. Arizona won’t have Carson Palmer under center for the second straight week and backup Drew Stanton appears to be on a short leash. The Cardinals have 10 scores in two games, six of them field goals and one of the four touchdowns was on a punt return. San Francisco is a very tough team to figure out right now. The 49ers have scored 48 points in two games, 45 of those have come in the first-half. And defensively, they allowed 45 in two games with 35 coming in the second-half. Four of the last five encounters between these teams have gone ‘over’ the number.

Thursday Night OVER Trend

I spoke about this system in last week’s “Total Talk” and it connected, fairly easily too. For those who missed it, the ‘over’ in Seattle-San Diego was the play.
Going back to last season, this angle now stands at 15-2-1 (88%).

All you have to do is find out who played at home on Thursday in the previous week and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. The Seahawks opened the season on Thursday versus the Packers and then played at San Diego last Sunday. The Chargers won 30-21 and the ‘over’ (45) hit.

This week’s ‘over’ situation is on the Baltimore-Cleveland matchup since the Ravens hosted the Steelers on Thursday in Week 2. In the past 10 head-to-head meetings between this pair, the ‘under’ has gone 8-1-1 and they’ve been clear-cut winners too. The highest combined points during this span was 42 points, which occurred last season and that total ended up as a push for most bettors.

So do you play the ‘over’ blindly based on the hot trend? Certainly a fair question and I do believe things eventually balance out in the long run but there are some numbers that could have you leaning ‘over’ despite this streak.
For starters, Cleveland’s defense is allowing 450 yards per game, which is the worst in the league. Let’s be fair, Baltimore isn’t a great defensive team anymore, especially on the road. Last year, they allowed an average of 26.4 PPG away from home and Sunday will be the Ravens first road game.

Another thing to look for in this matchup is the tempo. The league average for plays per game is 64 after two weeks. Cleveland has pushed the ball more this season and is averaging 68 per game. Meanwhile, Baltimore has really stepped on the pedal as it leads the league with an average of 75.

Under the Lights

Based on the closing numbers, the ‘over’ went 2-0 in the primetime games last week. The San Francisco-Chicago matchup jumped as high as 49 points but closed at 47 ½ and the Bears captured a 28-20 road win, which probably helped savvy arbitrage bettors cash both sides. This past Thursday, the Falcons hammered the Buccaneers 56-14 and the ‘over’ cashed early in the third quarter. Including that result, the ‘over’ is now 6-2 (75%) in primetime matchups.

Pittsburgh at Carolina: We have a low total on SNF and it’s hard to imagine Pittsburgh having any real success against Carolina’s defense, which is ranked second in PPG (10.5). Also, hard to ignore the fact that the Steelers haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last six quarters. Dating back to last season, Carolina has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 at home.

Chicago at N.Y. Jets: After watching New York get diced up at Green Bay in the second-half last week, I’m assuming that Rex Ryan will try to slow this game down and keep the Bears offense on the sidelines. Easier said than done! Chicago has the ability to score in bunches, especially in non-conference matchups. In their last 10 against the AFC, the Bears have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 while averaging 29.4 PPG.

Fearless Predictions

After two weeks the bankroll is in the red for $230 and I can provide plenty of answers but at the end of the day, my reasons would just be excuses. Hank Moody would say, “Do better tomorrow.” As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Cleveland-Baltimore 41
Best Under: Indianapolis-Jacksonville 45 ½
Best Team Total: Over Baltimore 21

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 32 Baltimore-Cleveland
Under 56 Oakland-New England
Over 40 Minnesota-New Orleans

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1) at DETROIT LIONS (1-1)

Line and Total: Detroit -3, Total: 53

The Lions host the Packers on Sunday in a game that could have major playoff implications in the NFC North division later in the year.

Aaron Rodgers’ team, fresh off a 31-24 comeback home victory over the Jets, will look to exploit the weak passing defense of Detroit, who will look to do the same to Green Bay's suspect secondary. The Lions lost 24-7 to the Panthers last week and will look to play a faster pace by throwing the ball more. Although the Packers are 15-2 SU in the past 17 meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS over the past six matchups, when the Packers visited Ford Field last year, they were blown out 40-10 as 6.5-point underdogs. However, Rodgers missed that game with a broken collarbone, and he is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) all-time versus the Lions with the only loss occurring in 2010 when he left the game with an injury.

Detroit is a miserable 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three seasons, but the team is also 7-4 ATS when coming off an Under in this same timeframe. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS off of a non-conference game during the past three years, but is a miserable 2-8 ATS as an underdog in this same timeframe.

The Lions are in pretty good health for this contest with only OT LaAdrian Waddle (calf) and safeties James Ihedigbo (neck) and Don Carey (hamstring) questionable for this one. The Packers have more vital injuries with LB Brad Jones (thigh) doubtful, and OT Bryan Bulaga (knee) and CBs Casey Hayward (hamstring) and Micah Hyde (knee) both questionable.

The Packers were down 21-3 against the Jets in their Week 2 matchup before QB Aaron Rodgers brought his team back for the 31-24 victory. Rodgers ended up with 346 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 28 yards in the game. WR Jordy Nelson was flat-out dominant for the Packers, catching nine passes for 209 yards and a touchdown in the game. Rodgers will look to find that same success against a weak Lions’ secondary on Sunday. Green Bay is going to need to work on defending the run this season and they’ll have to do it fast. They are allowing 176.5 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL) and that could be a huge problem against a team with two quality running backs in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. They are, however, allowing just 178.5 yards per game through the air this year (6th in NFL). That could all change with a matchup against Detroit's duo of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.

After a dominant offensive performance in Week 1 against the Giants where they scored 23 points with 417 total yards, the Lions could not get anything going against the Panthers last Sunday. Detroit gained only 323 total yards in a 24-7 loss in Carolina, and a lot of that had to do with them struggling in the running game. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell combined for just 16 carries in the defeat, and that type of predictability calling plays can take you out of a game in an instant. Bell did, however, catch six passes for 61 yards during the loss. Detroit will need to mix it up against the Packers in Week 3.

QB Matthew Stafford threw for 291 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss to the Panthers, while star WR Calvin Johnson hauled in six of his 13 targets for 83 yards. He will be a much bigger factor against the Packers, having gained 1,163 yards and 12 TD in 12 career meetings with the division foe. One plus for the Lions has been their outstanding defensive play early in the season. This unit is allowing only 197.5 yards per game through the air (9th in NFL) and 57.5 yards per game on the ground (2nd in NFL). They will need to be effective against the run in order to take Eddie Lacy out of the equation. However, holding up those numbers against the pass will be extremely difficult against Rodgers.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-1) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-0)

Line and Total: Philadelphia -6.5, Total: 50.5

The Eagles look to improve to 3-0 when they host the Redskins on Sunday.

Washington lost QB Robert Griffin III indefinitely to an ankle injury early in its Week 2 game against the Jaguars, but backup QB Kirk Cousins was more than ready to take over the team and threw for 250 yards with two touchdowns in a 41-10 blowout. The Redskins won’t hold anything back for Cousins as they attack a very beatable Philadelphia secondary. The Redskins also have a below-average secondary, and that will be a problem against Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense. The Eagles won-and-covered in both matchups between these teams last year and are 5-2 SU in the past seven meetings between the teams. However, Washington is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to Philly. Over the past three seasons, the Eagles are 4-13-1 ATS in home games, but are 4-1-1 ATS (5-1 SU) in the past six home tilts. They will, however, be up against a Redskins team that is 1-6 ATS in its past seven road games, and 3-11 ATS as an underdog over the past two years.

WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring) and RB Darrel Young (back) are listed as questionable for Washington in this game, while the only new injury for Philadelphia is little-used WR Josh Huff (shoulder).

The Redskins head to Philadelphia on Sunday with a chance to get over .500. QB Kirk Cousins is now the starter, and he gives this team a more poised presence under center. Cousins is a strong pocket passer and will use his accuracy to pick apart a weak Eagles secondary. One player who really benefited from this quarterback change was RB Alfred Morris. With the Redskins’ franchise quarterback sidelined last week versus the Jaguars, the team leaned heavily on the run, and Morris certainly delivered. He carried the ball 22 times for 85 yards and two touchdowns in the game, and has rushed for 338 yards (4.0 YPC) and 2 TD in four career meetings with this division foe. Facing an Eagles defense that allows a lot of points, Morris could be in for another solid game for Washington. Where this team will need to be better is defensively. Although the Redskins have allowed just 16 points this season, they are not a good defensive unit. They have been fortunate to face both the Texans and Jaguars in the early going of this season, but playing against the Eagles will be a whole other animal. Last season, the Eagles scored 28.5 points per game against the Redskins, and Washington will need to hold them to much less than that to secure a win.

Philadelphia is 2-0 this season and the scariest part about it is that the club has not played anything close to its best football yet. The Eagles went into halftime in both of their games down by double-digits and ended up putting up huge numbers in the second half. QB Nick Foles is second in the league this season with 653 passing yards, as head coach Chip Kelly is letting him throw the ball as much as he wants, but the quarterback will need to be better going forward. He’s been a little sloppy at times with four turnovers (2 INT, 2 fumbles lost), and although this Washington defense has not been tested by a great quarterback yet, it is allowing just 165.5 yards per game through the air (3rd in NFL). That number is not indicative of the actual talent that this secondary has, but Foles cannot afford to play as poorly as he has at times this season. Last season, he completed 17-of-26 passes for 298 yards in a 24-16 win over the Redskins. RBs Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy should have a lot of room to run in this game, as the duo has combined for 250 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 TD with 230 receiving yards (11.0 avg) this year. McCoy has racked up more than 110 total yards in each of his past five meetings with Washington, totaling 712 yards (142.4 per game) and 4 TD in this timeframe. The Philadelphia secondary has done a solid job early in the year, allowing just 207.0 yards per game (11th in NFL), but the unit has given up some big plays for touchdowns. The Eagles will need to shore up the back of their defense as they go up against a very aggressive play caller in Redskins head coach Jay Gruden.


DENVER BRONCOS (2-0) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-1)

Line and Total: Seattle -5, Total: 48.5

The Seahawks host the Broncos Sunday in what is likely the most anticipated game of the NFL regular season.

This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl in which Seattle embarrassed Denver on the national stage by a score of 43-8 despite being an underdog in the contest. The Broncos are coming off a 24-17 victory over the Chiefs to improve to 2-0 on the season, but the Seahawks was upset 30-21 on the road versus the Chargers last week to fall to 1-1. Denver made a lot of offseason changes in order to deal with the defense that Seattle exposed in that February meeting. QB Peyton Manning will likely have WR Wes Welker back from his suspension and the Broncos’ offensive line is healthier in this year’s meeting than it was in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks are 14-2 ATS after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons, and are also 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less in that time. The Broncos, however, are 5-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past three seasons. RB Marshawn Lynch (back) is probable for Seattle in the game and S Earl Thomas (leg) is listed as questionable. Denver is still missing LB Danny Trevathan, who is out at least six weeks with a fractured tibia.

The Broncos will have revenge on their minds as they head to Seattle to take on the defending Super Bowl champs. In that Feb. 2 meeting, Peyton Manning threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. The Broncos’ running game combined for just 27 yards and their defense was a laughing stock. Denver, however, has addressed a number of positions in the offseason and just beat the Chiefs 24-17 to improve to 2-0. The season is young, but the Broncos are allowing just 93.5 rushing yards per game (10th in NFL) and will be keying in on stopping Marshawn Lynch. Seattle relies heavily on its running game and head coach John Fox knows that he must slow Lynch down in order to have a chance of winning. What really hurt this team in the Super Bowl, however, was turnovers. The Broncos had four of them in that game and Peyton Manning knows that he must take much better care of the ball in this one. Through the first two games of the season, Denver has not committed a single turnover. The return of WR Wes Welker could be huge for this offense, as he had eight receptions for 84 yards in the Super Bowl defeat.

The Seahawks have another chance to display their dominance against the Broncos on Sunday. The game, however, comes after a rather lackluster performance against the Chargers, where they fell 30-21 as 5-point road favorites. Their defense was somewhat exposed as they allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 284 yards and three touchdowns. They also allowed 101 rushing yards despite the Chargers heavily featuring the pass. Seattle will need to do a much better job against the Broncos. Denver will certainly be looking at the film to see just how it will be able to exploit CB Richard Sherman and the Seahawks "Legion of Boom" secondary the same way that Rivers did.

The Chargers used the tight end position frequently, targeting Antonio Gates seven times. The Broncos should feature Julius Thomas frequently after Gates hauled in seven passes for 96 yards and three touchdowns. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson enters this game on a high note, as he has thrown for 393 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. He was outstanding in the Super Bowl as well, completing 18-of-25 passes for 206 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 3 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Chargers at Bills (-2 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- San Diego bounced back from a crushing Week 1 loss at Arizona to take care of the Seahawks in their home opener, 30-21 as 4 ½-point underdogs. The Chargers have covered in each of their first two games in the ‘dog role.
-- The Bills improved to 2-0 for the first time since 2011 by beating up the Dolphins at home, 29-10. Buffalo has cashed the ‘under’ in each of the first two games, while averaging 26 points per game.

Previous meeting: The Chargers destroyed the Bills at Qualcomm Stadium in December 2011 with a 37-10 rout as seven-point favorites. Since 2000, the home team has won six of the past seven meetings, with the Bills posting a 3-1 home record in this span.

What to watch for: From 2010 through November 2012, the Chargers put together a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS record in games played in the Eastern Time Zone. From December 2012 through the end of last season, San Diego improved to 4-2 SU/ATS, which included an overtime loss at Washington. Buffalo owns an 8-2 SU/ATS record as a home favorite since 2012, while covering nine of its past 10 overall at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Redskins at Eagles (-6, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- Washington rebounded from a season opening defeat at Houston, as the Redskins pounded the Jaguars, 41-10 as five-point favorites. The Redskins’ defense picked up 10 sacks, while overcoming an ankle injury to Robert Griffin III as Kirk Cousins threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.
-- Philadelphia managed its second straight victory after trailing in the second half, as the Eagles knocked off the Colts with a last-second field goal, 30-27. The Eagles cashed as three-point ‘dogs, one week after covering a 10-point number in a 34-17 triumph over Jacksonville.

Previous meeting: The Eagles pulled off the season sweep of the Redskins last season, as Philadelphia scored a combined 57 points in the two wins. The Redskins have covered three of the previous five visits to Lincoln Financial Field, including outright victories in 2010 and 2012.

What to watch for: Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have compiled a 4-6 ATS record at home, including four outright losses at Lincoln Financial Field in the role of a favorite. Since the start of last season, the Redskins have failed to cover six of their past seven games as a road underdog, including three straight losses to division foes on the highway.

Texans at Giants (PK, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- Houston’s defense stepped up without top pick Jadeveon Clowney, keeping the Raiders out of the end zone until the fourth quarter in a 30-14 at Oakland. The Texans have allowed just 17 points during their 2-0 start, the second straight season Houston has won its first two games (finished last season 2-14).
-- The Giants have scored 14 points in each of their first two losses to Detroit and Arizona, while getting outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter of last week’s 25-14 setback to the Cardinals.

Previous meeting: New York crushed Houston at Reliant Stadium as three-point underdogs in 2010 by a 34-10 count. Eli Manning tossed three touchdown passes in that victory, as the Giants are 2-1 in three lifetime meetings with the Texans.

What to watch for: Houston has split its last 10 road games against AFC opponents since 2009, while the Giants are just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS since the start of last season at Met Life Stadium. Tom Coughlin’s team has struggled to cover against NFC foes recently, putting together an 0-7 ATS mark in its past seven interconference matchups.

Titans at Bengals (-6 ½, 42 ½)– 1:00 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- For as good as Tennessee looked in the opener at Kansas City, the Titans looked equally bad in a 26-10 setback to the Cowboys as three-point home favorites. Tennessee yielded 220 rushing yards to Dallas as the Titans fell to 1-6-2 ATS in the past nine home contests dating back to the start of last season.
-- The Bengals have looked extremely impressive through two wins, including last Sunday's 24-10 triumph over the Falcons as five-point home favorites. Cincinnati racked up 472 yards of offense against Atlanta's defense, while allowing just three points in the first half this season.

Previous meeting: Andy Dalton threw three touchdown passes in a 24-17 victory by the Bengals at LP Field in 2011. The Bengals erased a 17-7 deficit to pick up their third win over the Titans in four tries dating back to 2005.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has covered 10 straight regular season home games since the end of the 2012 season, including an 8-0 SU/ATS record in 2013. Each of the past six victories at Paul Brown Stadium have come by double-digits, while scoring at least 34 points five times. Tennessee owns a solid 6-2-1 ATS mark in its past nine road games, including a 4-2-1 ATS ledger against AFC opponents.

49ers (-3, 42) at Cardinals – 4:05 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- San Francisco squandered a 20-7 fourth quarter lead in a 27-20 setback to Chicago last Sunday night. The 49ers allowed just 216 yards of offense, but couldn't stop Jay Cutler, who threw four touchdown passes for the Bears.
-- The Cardinals are one of the surprising 2-0 teams in the league, especially since Carson Palmer missed last Sunday's win over the Giants. Drew Stanton stepped in and led a comeback victory, the second win for Arizona this season after they trailed in the fourth quarter.

Previous meeting: San Francisco has grabbed nine of the past 10 matchups with Arizona, including a season sweep in 2013. The Cardinals trailed the Niners, 22-20 halfway through the fourth quarter in their first meeting last season at Candlestick Park, but San Francisco scored 10 late points to cover as 10-point favorites. San Francisco needed a field goal in the final seconds to grab the season finale in Glendale, 23-20, the fourth win in the past five visits to University of Phoenix Stadium.

What to watch for: The 49ers own an impressive 7-0-1 ATS record in the past eight games as a road favorite, while posting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS ledger on the road off a loss under Jim Harbaugh. Since 2009, the Cardinals have covered 13 of their past 20 games in the role of a home underdog, while Arizona has won six of their previous seven contests coming off an away victory.

Broncos at Seahawks (-5, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 2 Results:
-- Denver remained unbeaten in spite of not covering for the second straight game, holding off Kansas City, 24-17 as 13-point home favorites. The Broncos have jumped out to huge halftime leads in their first two victories (24-7 over Colts, 21-10 over Chiefs), but somehow have allowed Indianapolis and Kansas City to keep things interesting in the second half.
-- Seattle crushed Green Bay in the opener, but fell back to Earth in a 30-21 defeat at San Diego as 4 ½-point road favorites. The Seahawks yielded 377 yards and played from behind for the final three quarters, while cashing the 'over' for the second straight game.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in last season's Super Bowl, 43-8 as Seattle scored on a defensive touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown, and a safety to claim the franchise's first title. This is Denver's first trip to Seattle since 2002, as the last three meetings have gone 'over' the total.

What to watch for: Seattle has won 18 of its past 19 games at CenturyLink Field, including seven straight covers as a touchdown favorite or less. Peyton Manning has been listed as an underdog five times since becoming the quarterback of the Broncos, as Denver has cashed just once in this stretch, a 35-24 victory at San Diego back in 2012.

 

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SNF - Steelers at Panthers

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-1) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-0)

Line and Total: Carolina -3, Total: 41.5

The Panthers look to stay perfect when they host the Steelers on Sunday night.

Pittsburgh went to Baltimore last Thursday night and lost 26-6 in an ugly offensive performance. QB Ben Roethlisberger went 22-of-37 for 217 yards and was unable to find the end zone while throwing one interception. This Steelers offense will again be tested against a Panthers defense that has been dominant to start the year.

Carolina defeated the Lions, 24-7, in QB Cam Newton’s season debut last game. They were able to shut down one of the best offenses in football despite playing without star DE Greg Hardy, who had been benched because of his domestic violence conviction.

Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of the Panthers, but is only 10-13 ATS after playing a home game.

Pittsburgh also happens to be 0-6 ATS in September games over the last two years, but road teams where the line is +3 to -3, after two consecutive games where it forced one or less turnovers against an opponent after a game where it committed one or less turnovers are 66-32 ATS (67%) over the past 10 seasons.

RB DeAngelo Williams (thigh) missed last week's game and is questionable to return on Sunday, while the Steelers could be without three offensive starters in WR Lance Moore (groin), RB Dri Archer (ankle) and WR Martavis Bryant (shoulder) who are all listed as questionable.

The Steelers really struggled against the Ravens on Thursday night. QB Ben Roethlisberger will now need to get himself on track, but it’ll be tough going against a defense that allowed just seven points against the talented Lions offense. The Steelers would be wise to call plays where Roethlisberger is making high-percentage passes rather than letting him sling the ball all around the field.

They should also make it a goal to get RB Le'Veon Bell more involved. Bell rushed 11 times for 59 yards against the Ravens, but once they fell behind, they abandoned the ground game. Bell did, however, make an impact in the passing game with five receptions for 48 yards. The Steelers defense has had a lot of trouble defending the run this season, allowing 170.0 rushing yards per game (29th in NFL), and that is a recipe for disaster in this league. While they are allowing just 186.0 yards per game through the air (7th in NFL), the other teams have been able to sustain drives by grounding-and-pounding.

Pittsburgh has allowed 28.0 PPG in two weeks this season and will need to stop the run if it is going to improve on that number.

The Panthers are off to an excellent start to the season thanks to their dominant defensive unit that has allowed just 86.0 yards per game on the ground (6th in NFL). They’ll certainly be tested on Sunday night as they face one of the better runners in the league in Le'Veon Bell.

Carolina was able to hold Lions star WR Calvin Johnson to six receptions on 13 targets, but covering Steelers top WR Antonio Brown could be tougher, as he is outstanding at getting himself open once a play breaks down. The Panthers’ offense should be better this week than they were against the Lions. QB Cam Newton was playing in his first game of the year against Detroit with a whole new group of receivers, but he still threw for 281 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. His timing with his pass catchers should be a lot better after real-game experience and another week of practice.

Carolina may also be getting top RB DeAngelo Williams (thigh) back after a one-game absence. Williams ran hard in Week 1 against the Buccaneers, rushing for 72 yards on 14 carries. The Panthers will need his quickness out of the backfield as a compliment to the powerful running of both RBs Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert.

 

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Bears visit Jets on MNF

CHICAGO BEARS (1-1) at NEW YORK JETS (1-1)

Line and Total: New York -3, Total: 45.5

The Jets look to put a disappointing loss behind them when they host the Bears on Monday night.

Chicago was trailing the 49ers 20-7 on Sunday night, but scored 21 unanswered points to come away with the improbable win. The Jets, on the other hand, were leading 21-3 in their game against the Packers and blew that lead on the way to a 31-24 loss. Bears QB Jay Cutler was brilliant against San Francisco in the second half and will carry that momentum into a matchup with one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

New York will attempt to slow this game down by pounding away with its duo of RBs Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory. The Jets are 3-12 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past three seasons, but the Bears are 1-9 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better during that span. Five of the six games played between these teams since 1992 have gone Under the total.

WR Eric Decker (hamstring) is listed as questionable for the Jets in this game, while Chicago could be thin in the secondary with S Chris Conte (shoulder) and CB Sherrick McManis (quad) both questionable.

The Bears almost dug themselves an 0-2 hole to start the season, but QB Jay Cutler was able to rally his team back against the 49ers. Cutler was 23-of-34 on the game with 176 yards and four touchdowns. He now gets to tee off against a Jets secondary that allowed more than 200 receiving yards to Packers WR Jordy Nelson last week.

Top WR Brandon Marshall, who caught three touchdowns against the 49ers, and No. 2 WR Alshon Jeffery will be chomping at the bit for their chance to play against this miserable New York pass defense. One player who could have trouble in this game is RB Matt Forte, as the Jets are allowing only 52.5 rushing yards per game this season (1st in NFL) and will sell out to stop the run.

Chicago will need to set up some quick screens in order to get the ball into the hands of its best playmaker. The Bears pass defense has been solid this season, allowing 199.5 yards per game (10th in NFL), but has been shredded on the ground. Chicago is allowing opponents to rush for 160.0 yards per game (27th in NFL) and will need to do a much better job against a Jets offense that loves to pound away.

New York had a golden opportunity to start 2-0 with an 18-point lead at Lambeau Field, but became too protective of its lead and ran too often on the way to a 31-24 defeat. QB Geno Smith went 16-of-32 in the game with one touchdown and one interception. He also rushed for a touchdown. Smith was playing extremely well in the first half, but as the Jets became cautious of their lead, they were hesitant to let their quarterback make any plays.

New York did, however, rush for 146 yards as a team and it should be able to replicate that success against a poor Bears defense.

The Jets have been excellent defensively against the run this season, but defending the pass has been a whole different story. They are allowing 221.5 yards per game through the air (17th in NFL), but that number is low only because they played Derek Carr and a miserable Raiders passing game in Week 1. They were picked apart by Aaron Rodgers in Week 2.

If New York head coach Rex Ryan can’t find a way to have his secondary performing at a high level, this game could get out of hand early on Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Why your favorite team is the worst bet in the NFL
By JASON LOGAN

So, two weeks of NFL football are in the bag and you’ve yet to cash in a single winner on your favorite team, with a big stinky goose egg sitting in the ATS win category.

If this is you, you’re a die-hard follower of one of six NFL teams currently 0-2 ATS to start the 2014 campaign. Some of those pointspread duds shouldn’t surprise you. Others feel like a blindside hit out of nowhere.

Here’s why your NFL can’t cover:

New Orleans Saints (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

You stink on the road. It’s no secret the Saints are a completely different ball club away from the Big Easy, going 12-22 ATS on the road since 2010. New Orleans’ early struggles are just making its loyal fans frustrated, with things boiling over on the sidelines between head coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Rob Ryan.

Calm down boys, both sides of the ball are sucking right now. Luckily, you host a team in a lot more turmoil than you – the Minnesota Vikings – in Week 3. But is a home opener and a AP-less Vikes worth the double-digit spread?

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Because you’re the Jaguars, duh! Sure, Jacksonville looked alive at the end of last season – 4-3-1 ATS final eight weeks – and you put a scare into the Eagles in Week 1 before the wheels started to wobble. But you’re the Jags.

On a laundry list of issues, the offense sits at the top, getting outscored 75-27 in the first two weeks of the season. It doesn’t help that the Colts, who are also 0-2 SU, are aching to get their season on track as 7-point favorites in Jacksonville Sunday.

New York Giants (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Point the finger at new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. The guy wasn’t the first choice to become OC and his West Coast offense has produced a paltry 14 points in each of New York’s first two games. Eli Manning can take some of the blame – three TDs to four INTs and a 61.1 percent completion rate – but he doesn’t have much to work with.

The Giants offense will be hard pressed for a turnaround in Week 3, with the Houston Texans and their wrecking ball of a defense coming to MetLife Stadium. This total opened at 42 points – which is tied for the lowest total on the Week 3 board – and books aren’t completely giving up on New York, keeping the spread at +2.

Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Those inflated lines are a bitch. Denver was the bet of choice for NFL fans in 2013, thanks in large part to how easy those spread covers came. The Broncos often left little doubt en route to a 10-5-1 ATS regular season and because of that, bookmakers are fattening up Denver’s 2014 spreads to pad against the public pounding. The defending AFC champs were as big as 9.5-point chalk versus Indianapolis in Week 1 and got up to -13 versus Kansas City last Sunday.

Perhaps the only team more adored by the public at this point is the one that embarrassed the Broncos in the Super Bowl. It so happens that’s the same team Denver visits this week, set as 5-point underdogs at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Can Denver get some ounce of revenge or is bound for another second-half collapse, after being outscored 24-10 in the second half this season?

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)

You can’t finish games. Pittsburgh, much like Denver, has been a second-half slug in the opening weeks of the schedule. The Steelers stormed out to 27-3 lead over Cleveland in Week 1, then crapped the bed in the final 30 minutes. They were only down 10-3 to Baltimore last Thursday, then got outscored 16-3 in the second half.

Penalties, adjustments, injuries can all come into play, but the fact may be that the Steelers just aren’t in game shape yet. Pittsburgh has looked very lethargic on both sides of the ball in the final two quarters – especially the offense which is try to run a no-huddle pace on an empty tank of gas. The Black and Yellow are back on primetime against Carolina in Week 3 and books expect a grinder with the total at 42 and the Steelers priced as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Unrealistic spreads/expectations. Oddsmakers opened the Bucs as underdogs against Carolina in Week 1, but once Cam Newton got injured in the preseason, action forced books to adjust and Tampa Bay went off as a 5.5-point fave. Then the Bucs lost to a backup QB. Same goes in Week 2. The Rams handed third-stringer Austin Davis the ball, Tampa Bay went off at -4 and got beat by another bench warmer.

Hopes were high for the Buccaneers under new head coach Lovie Smith, and that’s part of the problem. The team obviously is still adjusting to the overhaul and it hasn’t helped facing two wonky pointspreads in that time. Things come back to earth in Week 3, with the Bucs going as big as 7-point underdogs in Atlanta before money came back and trimmed the line to +6. Someone out there still believes in your Buccos.

 

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 3:

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 50.5)

Half-point hook vs. Eagles’ poor starts

This 6.5-point spread is the second highest line for a Redskins-Eagles contests in the past five seasons (Eagles -7 in 2011-12 season finale) and could easily climb even higher by the time these NFC East rivals kickoff Sunday.

Washington is without starter Robert Griffin III, which will convince the public to pound 2-0 Philadelphia. However, Redskins backup QB Kirk Cousins would be a starter on almost half of the other teams in the league and is undervalued by many even after giving RG3 a go for his No. 1 spot in the preseason.

Eagles backers have soaked through their shirts this season. Philly fell behind 17-0 to the Jaguars as 10-point favorites but battled back to win 34-17 in Week 1. And this past Monday, the Eagles were down 20-6 to the Colts in the third quarter before outscoring Indianapolis 24-7 and winning the game outright as a 3-point pup.

Philadelphia has been outscored 34-6 in the first half of its first two games, turning the tables with a 58-10 assault in the final two quarters. Will another slow start be in store for Sunday? And if so, can Philadelphia recover in time to get past that half-point hook? Well, they'll have to deal with a stingy Washington defense that has only allowed a pair of field goals in second halves so far - lowest second-half points allowed in the league.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53)

Packers’ poor protection vs. Lions’ sack-happy defense

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has already been sacked seven times, which is seven times more than the Packers would like after Rodgers missed seven games due to injury in 2013. "Mr. Discount Double Check" was blasted versus Seattle in the opener, taking three sacks, then was rocked for four QB kills against the Jets in Week 2.

The Packers offensive line is a bit of a mish-mash. There are a couple stalwarts on the line, in Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, but inexperience has been its biggest weakness. Second and first year protectors have been shifted around since tackle Bryan Bulaga went down (questionable for Week 3), and replacement Derek Sherrod has allowed pass rushers to get the best of him.

Detroit’s biggest strength on defense is its ability to pressure the passer – making up for a soft secondary. The Lions have seven sacks through the first two weeks, including four against the Panthers last Sunday, and will need to get to Rodgers quickly before he can hit his targets downfield. Detroit only got to Rodgers once in its lone meeting against him in 2013, but did sack the crap out of Matt Flynn – seven times for 37 yards – when it played the Packers backup at home in late November.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Broncos’ revenge vs. Seahawks’ stumble

The NFL schedule offers the Broncos a rare opportunity in Week 3. This is just the sixth time in NFL history that the previous Super Bowl combatants have faced each other in the following season. And it’s a game that’s been on Denver’s mind since the confetti flew in its face at MetLife Stadium this past February.

The Broncos have had revenge on their minds all offseason, if you couldn’t tell by the way the roster beefed up on elite defenders like LB DeMarcus Ware, S T.J. Ward, and CB Aqib Talib. And just in time for this Super Bowl rematch, Denver’s division rival San Diego laid down some bread crumbs for the Broncos to follow after stunning the Seahawks 30-21 in Week 2.

Just like Drago in Rocky IV, the Chargers proved that Seattle can bleed – “OK, you've hurt him, now he's nervous, it hurt! You see Rocky, he's not a machine! He's a man!” The Seahawks have been more concerned with defending their loss to the Bolts than talking about the Broncos, and should be worried that Peyton Manning and TE Julius Thomas will hook up like Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates, who scored three times in Sunday’s victory over the champs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42)

Steelers’ versatile catch/run game vs. Panthers overrated rush defense

A quick glance over the NFL’s defensive categories, and you’d think Carolina was locking down the ground game like leg shackles – ranked sixth in the league, allowing only 86 rushing yards through the first two weeks. And why not? This Panthers stop unit finished 2013 with the third-best run defense (89.2 ypg).

Well, you’re all stupid. Digging deeper into the numbers, you’ll see that Carolina has faced the fewest rush attempts in the league through Weeks 1 and 2. Opponents – Tampa Bay and Detroit – have only run the ball an average of 17.5 times. The Buccaneers fell behind and gave up on the ground while the Lions were never big fans of running to begin with. But despite a lack of action on the turf, the Panthers’ opposition is still picking up 4.9 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh will look to exploit that overrated run defense with playmaking RB Le'Veon Bell, who leads the NFL with 308 yards from scrimmage – 168 of those coming on the ground. Bell is picking up 5.2 yards per carry and has already reeled in 11 passes for 12.4 yards per catch.

And behind the flash-and-dash of Bell is bowling ball LeGarrette Blount. He hasn’t seen much action this season – 14 yards on seven attempts – but has been a thorn in the side of his former NFC South rival, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown in four career games versus Carolina.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 3 line moves
By ANDREW AVERY


Now that we've moved on to the third week of the NFL season, oddsmakers and bettors are starting to get a better idea of where certain football teams stand. Underdogs were impressive in Week 1, posting an 11-5 record against the spread, and still have the edge heading into Sunday's action with a 19-13-1 mark at the betting window.

With that in mind, we talk to sportsbooks about the betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where they see the lines ending up come kickoff Sunday.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills - Open: Pick, Move: -2, Move: -2.5

In the wake of a tumultuous offseason, the Buffalo Bills have begun the season with great promise. With wins at the Chicago Bears and versus the Miami Dolphins, they've also started the season with a perfect 2-0 ATS record to satisfy faithful Bills backers.

The Chargers are coming off a big 31-20 home victory over the Seattle Seahawks, covering as 4.5-point home pups in the process.

But the journey to Buffalo, and a game that figures to be played in un-San Diego like conditions, has betters supporting the home squad.

"Early money sees trouble with the Chargers traveling cross country, but I expect some buy back due to the proximity to San Diego," says Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker with South Point Sportsbook. "This should close at -1.5."

"We opened the Bills -1 and took some sharp action on the Bills at that number which forced us to Bills -2.5 and now we are dealing Bills -2," says Michael Stewart.

Houston Texans at New York Giants - Open: +2.5, Move: Pick, Move: -1.5

MetLife Stadium is the scene as the winless New York Giants host the unbeaten Houston Texans. A Texans' victory here and they'll have already surpassed their entire win total from last season.

The Giants have been dismal out of the gate and have been frustrating for their supporters, failing to cover as 6.5-point dogs at the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and as 1-point home favorites with the Arizona Cardinals in town one week ago.

"We opened the Texans -2.5 with the defense playing well but we've seen Giants money with bettors giving them another chance," Vaccaro says. "There's nothing significant here, but parlay card people are using the Texans on their tickets."

"We initially made the Giants a 2.5-point dog at home, but there's a growing sense among the gambling community that they're 'due'," John Lester, Senior Lines Manager for Bookmaker.eu told Covers. "Houston doesn't look like a 3-0 squad, but the Giants are bad. Tossup sounds about right."

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins - Open: -4.5, Move: -3.5

Books opened the Fish as 4.5-point home faves, but following a poor, unconvincing effort at Buffalo in Week 2 - after a big home win against the Patriots to begin the season - action has been on the visiting Chiefs.

The Chiefs are winless straight up, but showed a positive effort in Week 2, covering as 13-point dogs at the Denver Broncos.

"We opened the Fish as a 5-point favorite but have gone down to 3.5 has we are booking nothing but Chiefs action to the tune of 67 percent," Stewart said.

The Dolphins have had the upper hand in the win column and at the betting window in recent matchups, posting 3-0 SU and ATS records in the previous three meetings between the two AFC teams.

"We opened the Dolphins -4.5 and I think we opened too high," Vaccaro tells Covers. "The Dolphins took a beating from the Bills and the Chiefs were able to hang around with the Broncos last week. The Dolphins just look mediocre and I think this will close -3.5."

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -4.5, Move: -5, Move: -4.5

The marquee game of Week 3 pits last season's Super Bowl participants at CenturyLink Field as the Denver Broncos look for revenge against the Seattle Seahawks and the vaunted 12th Man.

Peyton Manning and Co. will look to eliminate the bad taste left from a 43-8 thumping in the Super Bowl.

Sharps backed the champs early, but it was the public that moved the spread back to its original number.

"Sharps took a small position with the Seahawks early in the week but the public has moved the spread back to the opener of -4.5," Lester says.

"We have been bouncing between Seahawks -5, -4.5 all week as the action has been fairly even with the Seahwaks getting 63 percent of the action up to this point," Stewart.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3.5, Move: -3

Sunday's finale sees the Carolina Panthers hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on the Sunday Night Football national stage.

History is not on Carolina's side, however, as the Steelers take a perfect 5-0 ATS record into Back of America Stadium in the all-time series. The Steelers covered as 14-point home faves, winning 27-3 the last time these two met back in 2010.

"Opened this Carolina -3.5 with the Panthers playing harder than we thought," Vaccaro says. "We've opened this at the right number and we've seen minimal action, but the money so far is on the Steelers with parlay cards picking up the slack."

"We were looking for Pittsburgh money when we opened at -3.5 and we've gotten it," Lester confirms. "The spread will likely close at the current number and the total might get pushed a point higher being the Sunday night game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Broncos at Seahawks

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos certainly won't lack for motivation when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday with a chance to avenge a humiliating beating in last season's Super Bowl. It's only the sixth time in league history that a Super Bowl rematch will occur in the following regular season and gives Denver an opportunity ease the pain of a 43-8 thrashing at the hands of Seattle. To do so, the Broncos must upend an opponent that is 16-1 in its last 17 at home.

The Seahawks' defense was the toast of the NFL after shutting down Manning and a high-powered attack that eclipsed the league record for points scored in a season, but Seattle did not look so invincible in last week's 30-21 setback at San Diego. Manning, who shattered NFL single-season marks for touchdown passes (55) and yards (5,477) in 2013, is off to another fast start with three touchdown passes in each of Denver's first two wins. Wide receiver Wes Welker makes his season debut for the Broncos after his four-game suspension was cut in half by the league.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened with the Seahawks -4.5, but that is now -5. The total has held at 48.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - WR Wes Welker (Probably, suspension), LB Lerentee McCray (Out, knee). Seahawks - TE Zach Miller (Questionable, ankle), RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable, back), RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-7.5) - Seahawks (-6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks (-1.75)

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low 80s with wind blowing from the west at 3 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Seahawks' pass defense showed some signs of weakness last week when the lost outright 30-21 as a 5-point road favorite at San Diego. Seattle allowed 7.5 yards per pass and 76 percent completions in that game. Now Seattle returns home where they are 18-1 SU / 14-5 ATS the with QB Russell Wilson at the helm. It will be interesting to see if the crowd noise hinders Denver QB Peyton Manning and his "Omaha" audibles at the line of scrimmage." Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Rematch. Last year's Super Bowl combatants face off against each other in in Seattle where Manning will need to deal with the 12th man at full strength this time around. We have been bouncing between Seahawks -5, -4.5 all week as the action has been fairly even with the Seahwaks getting 63% of the action up to this point." Michael Stewart.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): While the revenge factor - “This is what we've been waiting for,” wideout Andre Caldwell said - cannot be overstated, Denver must figure out a way to keep its collective foot on the throttle after nearly blowing big halftime leads in home wins over Indianapolis and Kansas City. "We're still figuring out what our strengths are, what things we can improve on and what things we can eliminate," Manning said after the Broncos scored a combined 10 second-half points in their first two games. Newcomer Emmanuel Sanders (team-high 14 catches) has thrived in the absence of Welker while tight end Julius Thomas already has hauled in four scoring passes, but running back Montee Ball has rushed for only 127 yards and is averaging 3.6 per carry. Denver's retooled defense, featuring DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (300.5).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Although Seattle had no answer for tight end Antonio Gates in last week's loss, it is a different team playing at rowdy CenturyLink Stadium, as evidenced by a dominating 36-16 victory over Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in the season opener. "They're really loud, they're really raucous and they always have great energy," All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman said of the league's loudest venue. "It really gives us a chance to feed off their energy." Although quarterback Russell Wilson, who played flawlessly in the Super Bowl victory, has four TDs and is completing nearly 68 percent of his passes, the normally dominating defense gave him few chances by allowing San Diego to hold the ball for over 42 minutes. Wideout Percy Harvin has more yards rushing than receiving, but the key for Seattle is Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for only 36 yards on six carries last week.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games on fieldturf.
* Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games in September.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Week 3.

CONSENSUS: 56 percent of wagers are backing the visiting Broncos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What's going on with these early NFL betting surprises?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Two weeks into the 2014 NFL season and, like most years, we’ve already encountered plenty of surprise performances - both good and bad - from Super Bowl contenders and perennial divisional bottom dwellers.

Let’s see if we can make some sense out of a few of these surprises and determine whether or not any quality betting angles exist moving forward.

What's right with...

Buffalo Bills

Credit an impressively stout defense for Buffalo’s first 2-0 start since 2011. The Bills are making headlines in the wake of Sunday’s 29-10 thrashing of hated rival Miami, which puts the franchise at a surprising 7-2 ATS at Ralph Wilson Stadium since the hiring of head coach Doug Marrone.

We still have concerns about backing the inconsistent E.J. Manuel on the road (2-4 ATS career), but believe that the Bills are consistently undervalued when playing in western New York.

The next home opportunity for Buffalo presents itself in Week 3 against the San Diego Chargers (+1.5).

Houston Texans

Houston has now started 2-0 in each of the last five seasons. This year’s quick start can be attributed to a swarming defense that has permitted a grand total of just 20 points against the anemic offenses from Washington and Oakland.

This Sunday offers another struggling offense to devour in the form of Eli Manning and the New York Giants, who have posted a total of just 28 points through two games this season. With the total for Week 3 posted at 42, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the Under.

Carolina Panthers

Predicted by many as a team destined to regress in 2014, the Panthers are 2-0 thanks to a stalwart defense that has permitted only 21 points through 120 minutes of action. The Panthers are now 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS over their last nine home games where the opposition is averaging just 11.4 points per contest.

Week 3 offers a Sunday night home showdown against a Pittsburgh Steelers offense that scored just six points at Baltimore last Thursday night. Note that Carolina has held six of its last nine home opponents to 13 or fewer points, so you may want to consider a long look at the Under on Pittsburgh’s team total here.

What's wrong with...

Denver Broncos

Hot in the standings, ice cold in the ATS department at 0-2 to open the season. But there’s still a winning edge to be found when it comes to this Denver Broncos team… especially when Peyton Manning and company are playing at Invesco Field.

Bettors are 2-0 ATS when backing Denver in the first half this season, as the Broncos have outscored the opposition 45-17 during the first 30 minutes of football. On the flip side, bettors are 2-0 ATS when fading the Broncos during the second half in 2014, as the franchise has been outscored 24-10 over the final 30 minutes of football this year.

New Orleans Saints

New year, same old Saints. Since 2010, Sean Payton’s crew is 22-8-2 ATS when playing at home in New Orleans, but that record plummets to just 12-22 ATS for all road games played during the same time span. History has held true so far this season, as the Saints are already 0-2 both SU and ATS to open the season on the road.

New Orleans should look good against Minnesota at home this Sunday before traveling to Dallas the following week for a road showdown with the Cowboys. That game should offer plenty of value, assuming New Orleans handles business in Week 3.

Kansas City Chiefs

That 5-1 ATS mark to open the Andy Reid era in Kansas City seems like a lifetime ago, as the Chiefs have gone 5-7 ATS during the regular season ever since that lightning-fast start. Like the Panthers, the Chiefs were picked by many to suffer a regression in 2014 and so far that prediction looks to be coming true.

Injuries have decimated the Kansas City defense while the offense has mustered just 27 points through eight quarters. However, a Week 3 road trip to humid Miami has early bettors backing the Chiefs, as the opening line of Miami -5 has already been bet down to Miami -4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Who's the best bet in Super Bowl rematches: Winners or Losers?

Sequels are hardly as good as the original, but what happens when the original was just downright terrible?

Football fans had to sit through the Seattle Seahawks’ 43-8 drubbing of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII last February, after it was promoted as the greatest Super Bowl showdown of all time. Denver opened as a slight underdog at some books but closed around -1.5 by kickoff, but it only took one possession to see which team was the superior squad.

Now, in Week 3 of the 2014 season, these two NFL mega powers collide with Seattle tabbed as a 5-point home favorite in the Super Bowl rematch. Books opened at Seattle -4.5 and money on the home side has boosted the defending champs half a point as of Wednesday.

And with good reason too. In Super Bowl rematches the following season, it’s been the reigning champions who have provided the most profits when it comes to the odds. It’s a rare occurrence, happening only five times before, but in three of those five rematches the defending Super Bowl winner has covered the spread.

As for the two ATS blemishes, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl IV in 1970 then lost 27-10 as 12-point favorites the following season. The 1993 Dallas Cowboys fell 13-10 as 5-point chalk to the Buffalo Bills, after smashing their opponent 52-17 in Super Bowl XXVII that winter.

Those two Super Bowls were pretty lopsided, so perhaps there’s hope for the Broncos’ as revenge fueled underdogs Sunday afternoon. Denver did take a 21-16 victory over Seattle at home in the preseason, covering as a 1-point underdog in Week 1 of the exhibition schedule.

Here’s a look at each of those five previous Super Bowl rematches:

Super Bowl IV (1970): Chiefs defeated Vikings 23-7
Rematch (1970): Vikings won 27-10 in Week (KC L-12)

Super Bowl XI (1977): Raiders defeated Vikings 32-14
Rematch (1977): Raiders won 35-13 in Week 13 (OAK W -8)

Super Bowl XIII (1979): Steelers defeated Cowboys 35-31
Rematch (1979): Steelers won 14-3 in Week 9 (PIT W -10)

Super Bowl XXVII (1993): Cowboys defeated Bills 52-17
Rematch (1993): Bills won 13-10 in Week 2 (DAL L -5, U44.5)

Super Bowl XXXI (1997): Packers defeated Patriots 35-21
Rematch (1997): Packers won 28-10 in Week 9 (GB W +1.5, U45)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 3's best player prop picks
By SEAN MURPHY

After a banner opening week, we took a bit of a step back last Sunday. Time to bounce back in Week 3. Here are four prop picks to consider Sunday afternoon.

Most passing yards

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Brian Hoyer (Cleveland Browns)

I like the direction the Browns are headed in, even on the offensive side of the football - an area where most casual bettors consider them to be rather punchless.

Brian Hoyer could get a boost with the potential return of TE Jordan Cameron from injury. He practiced Wednesday and it’s looking more and more like he’ll be a go Sunday.

The Ravens bounced back with a big win over the Steelers last week, but I’m still not sold on this team. Joe Flacco hasn’t been the same since losing Anquan Boldin prior to last season and I don’t see this as a favorable matchup against an up-and-coming Browns defense.

Take: Hoyer

Most rushing yards

Trent Richardson (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville Jaguars)

There’s no question, Trent Richardson has been a bust to this point. While he should find a little more room to run against the Jaguars compared to the Colts’ first two opponents, I still expect him to fall short in this matchup.

Toby Gerhart has been quiet in his first two games with Jacksonville, but I see this as a favorable spot against an injury-depleted and struggling Colts defense. Blake Bortles debut could come sooner rather than later, but for now the Jags will need to lean on their ground game in order to keep games close.

Take: Gerhart

Most pass receptions

Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. Sammy Watkins (Buffalo Bills)

The Bills are off to a surprising 2-0 start and Sammy Watkins has certainly played a role in their success. He may be the more explosive of the two receivers in this matchup, but I’m still not sure that he and QB E.J. Manuel are on the same page.

We watched Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen develop tremendous chemistry last season and, while Allen has yet to really take flight this year, his time is coming.

Last week we saw Antonio Gates turn in a huge performance against the Seahawks, but don’t count on a repeat performance from the veteran TE here. Instead, I’m anticipating a big day for Rivers and Allen against a beatable Bills secondary.

Take: Allen

Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers) vs. Golden Tate (Detroit Lions)

While Jordy Nelson remains Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, Randall Cobb is never far off the radar and I believe his speed will cause major problems for the Lions defense Sunday. Last week it was Nelson’s turn to go off, but I’m looking for Cobb to rule the day for the Packers offense in Detroit.

Golden Tate continues to get acclimated in the Lions offense. He’s more of a big play receiver than a guy that racks up eight to 10 catches per game. Tate will likely see his numbers increase as the season wears on, but against a division rival I’m confident we’ll see Matt Stafford lean heavily on Calvin Johnson (I don’t think I’m going out on much of a (I don’t think I’m going out on much of a limb with that statement).

Take: Cobb

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rain, thunder could plague Chargers-Bills showdown
Andrew Avery

The unbeaten Buffalo Bills will host the San Diego Chargers from Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday, but rain and thunder could an appearance during the game.

According to forecasts, there is an 83 percent chance of thunderstorms leading up to and during the 1 p.m. kickoff.

Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the high-60s to low-70s and wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

History bodes well for the Saints Sunday
Andrew Avery

According to a tweet from Football Perspective, the New Orleans Saints will be the seventh team since 1978 to begin an NFL season 0-2 straight up and be a double-digit fave in their third game of the season.

In those previous six games, the 0-2 clubs have won all six SU, but are 3-3 ATS.

Oddsmakers have tabbed the Saints as 10.5-point home favorites with the Minnesota Vikings in town.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Showers in Cleveland's forecast Sunday
Andrew Avery

The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North showdown, and the game get messy early on if current weather forecasts hold true.

Forecasts are calling for a 69 percent chance of thunderstorms before and during the game.

Furthermore, wind is forecast to blow toward the east endzone at roughly 15 mph.

The Browns are currently 1.5-point underdogs with a total of 41.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sylvania 300 Preview
By Micah Roberts

Brad Keselowski is an amazing driver with some amazing equipment. How can anyone stop him?

His win Sunday at Chicago was his second straight on the season and gave him a series leading five overall. This is how he's going to start the 2014 Chase? It's like he's riding a tidal wave above everyone into the Chase. It's a much better entrance to the Chase than in 2012 when he won at Chicago and went on to win his first Cup title.

The win Sunday enhances his win at Richmond two weeks ago even more. Remember when he led 383 of the 400 laps at Richmond? It was one of the more dominant ass-kickings on a race track I've ever seen -- at least a top-10 contender. Now he heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where one of his five wins on the season came in July.

If you've been reading this column through the years, then you've probably heard over and over again about how I like to group New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix into one group because they're all flat and nearly the same distance. Sure, it's repetitive, but it's the most important part of handicapping the race, especially this late in the season when we have four races of data to go off of.

Here's the drill you want to go through this week. Print the results from Phoenix, New Hampshire and both Richmond races and put them side to side in order of date they ran. Look at who has gotten better on each run and look who has been the most consistent. The driver that has gotten progressively better is Keselowski, which is hard to do when no finish is worse than fourth. But wins in the last two on them, and pasting the field at Richmond, puts him at a distinct advanatge Sunday.

The Pesnke Racing team has won the past three on these types with teammate Joey Logano winning at Richmond Apr. 26. They didn't win at Phoenix -- Kevin Harvick did, but Keselowski was third and Logano was fourth. And of the four races we're comparing, least important in the equation is Phoenix because it was so long ago.

Now that we have figured out that Keselowski is easily the driver to beat, the problem is getting good value and we're not going to get it. The sports books have their results sheets laid out too and they know Penske and Keselowski are the team to beat by a wide margin. Because he's so good, it's going to take some enticing odds on the other contenders to stray away from just going all in with Keselowski.

The best candidate to beat Keselowski would be Jeff Gordon who has twice finished second to a Penske car this season at Richmond. He's a three-time winner at New Hampshire and has led the most laps there all-time.

If looking for drivers with a little more punch in the odds department, you might take a chance with Clint Bowyer who raced his tail off at Richmond to a third-place finish while trying to make the Chase. He's a two-time winner at New Hampshire, including his first career victory. He finished sixth in the first New Hampshire in July.

The best car doesn't always win, so I'll ride with the second best car with Gordon. As always check out the final practices on Saturday to finalize your wagers.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (4/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
5) #15 Clint Bowyer (30/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Keselowski taken to new Vegas heights
By: Micah Roberts

The beginning of NASCAR's 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup couldn't have kicked off any better. Brad Keselowski is now riding a tidal wave of victories, from dominating at Richmond two weeks ago to winning last week at Chicago.

What do you make of him? Is he a villain? Or is he the breath of fresh air some have waited for in this era of Jimmie Johnson dominance?

It wasn't too long ago he was wetting his beak in the top series and earning the nickname 'Brad Crash-a-lot-ski' from a few prominent Cup drivers thanks to his ultra-aggressive driving and some early mistakes. But now he's starting to repeat 2012, a year he won Chicago to kick off the Chase en route to winning the title.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has made a major adjustment on the odds to win Sunday's Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway just because of what we have seen recently with Keselowski. And it's not about winning two consecutive races coming in, but rather winning two consecutive races on a specific type of track.

He's been posted at 7-to-2 odds, which is a major price reduction from what we've seen all season, where three to four drivers have been favorites in the 5-to-1 range. At one time, four drivers were considered equal almost everywhere. By posting Keselowski so low, it's saying that Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano are only secondary figures and the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford should be in victory lane for a series-leading sixth time this season.

Because New Hampshire's flat 1-mile layout requires almost the same set-up as Richmond or Phoenix, we can group them all together, and the cool thing about it being this late in the season is that there are four races of data to scroll through.

The best handicapping practice for this race is to look at what's happened in the last two events on the similar tracks. So let's see: Keselowski led 383 of the 400 laps at Richmond on Sept. 6 and then on July 13 he led 138 laps en route to a win at New Hampshire. That's 2-for-2 on recent tracks that are most critical to the number.

If we go back further to include the other two like-track races, Keselowski finished fourth at Richmond in April and third at Phoenix in March. No one in the series has a resume even close to being as good. Logano won at the first Richmond race and Harvick won at Phoenix. Gordon finished second twice at Richmond this season, but Keselowski is a notch above all which is why he owns such low odds this week.

So who has the best shot at upsetting Keselowski?

Jeff Gordon (6-1): So what if he hasn't won at New Hampshire since his magical season of 1998? He's still the top contender to beat Keselowski. This guy is on a major rekindle tour and is savoring all the moments fans are giving him because of being the villain of sorts (an entirely different story) for the duration of his career. He's led a track-high 1,271 laps over his career and has a 9.8 average finish over his last 20 winless starts. Thanks to runner-up finishes at both Richmond races, Gordon is the non-Penske driver to key on.

Clint Bowyer (25-1): He could have never imagined his Michael Waltrip Racing Toyota would fail to win a race after their theatrics last season at Richmond. His engine has been tired and way behind all the top teams for most of the 2014 season, but we have seen some power from Toyota in the Joe Gibbs garages as well as MWR teammate Brian Vickers.

Two weeks ago at Richmond, Bowyer was trying to race himself into the Chase and failed, but he did finish third. In the first New Hampshire race, he finished sixth. This is his type of track.

He won his first career Cup race here and he's won two times overall. Richmond is his other signature track. So with a Toyota upgrade, Bowyer's natural skills on these tracks, he might be the best candidate at double-digit odds to win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Reds visit Cardinals

Cincinnati (71-83) at St. Louis (86-68)

First pitch: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Line and Total: Cardinals -200, Reds +180, Total 7

The Cardinals continue their run towards another playoffs when they host the squandering Reds on Sunday night.

Cincinnati's season is lost, as it sits 14 games behind St. Louis entering this series and has the third-worst offense (560 runs) in the league. The Reds begin the weekend on a four-game losing streak having just been swept on the road against the Cubs. Cincinnati scored only one run in the three-game sweep and failed to grab a single game with a 3-1 loss on Wednesday. OF Jay Bruce (.213 BA) has struggled all season and is 4-for-24 (.167) with seven strikeouts over his past nine contests. St. Louis is turning it on at the right time, and entering Friday has come away victorious in 14 of its past 19 games including a series win against the Brewers. Their pitching allowed only five runs over three contests against Milwaukee, finishing off the series with a 3-2 win in extra innings on Thursday.

OF Matt Holliday (.271 BA) has upped his game recently with multi-hit performances in five of his past 10 contests entering Friday where he has gone 13-for-38 (.342) with two homers, 5 RBI and six runs. The pitching matchup for Sunday's contest pegs RHP Alfredo Simon (14-10, 3.35 ERA) of the Reds against RHP Lance Lynn (15-9, 2.68 ERA) for the Cardinals. Through Thursday, Cincinnati held a horrendous record of 31-47 (.397, 5th-worst in MLB) on the road while St. Louis is a stellar 49-29 (.628, T-3rd in majors) at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals hold a 29-21 (.580) edge in this series over the past three seasons while going 10-6 in 2014, including a 5-1 record at home in that time. In their last meeting, the Reds actually took 3-of-4 games at home as three of the four games went under the total.

Alfredo Simon has been solid in his first year as a full-time starter and has combated his low strikeout rate (5.8 K/9) with solid control (2.5 BB/9). His season was much better in the first half though, as he posted a 2.70 ERA over 116.2 innings while seeing that number jump to a 4.46 ERA in 68.2 frames in the second half. Simon has benefited from batters hitting .262 BABIP and was likely pitching over his head in the first part of the year. In his past two outings, Simon has allowed a mere two runs on 10 hits over 14 innings while not allowing a homer and seeing his team go 1-1. He is 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 16 appearances (2 starts) against the Cardinals in his career.

OF Jon Jay (5-for-14), 1B Matt Adams (3-for-7, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and C Yadier Molina (4-for-11) have been great against the righty, while OF Matt Holliday and 2B Kolten Wong have combined to go a woeful 2-for-21 (.095) with six strikeouts in the matchup. Coming into this series, the Reds bullpen has a putrid 10-30 record (.250) with a 4.16 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, while getting the save in 41-of-60 (68%) chances. Closer Aroldis Chapman (2.25 ERA, 33 saves) has an amazing strikeout rate (17.6 K/9) while allowing just one homer in 48 frames (0.19 HR/9) with two blown saves on the year.

Lance Lynn has been one of the better starters for the Cardinals over the past three seasons with an ERA better than 4.00 each year while winning at least 15 games. Surprisingly, his strikeout rate has dropped over the past three years to 7.8 K/9 in 2014 while he has seen his control (3.2 BB/9) remain about the same. A strength he has shown this season is the ability to keep the ball in the park with a mere nine homers allowed in 191.2 innings pitched (0.42 HR/9). Lynn has not given up more than three earned runs in any of his outings since June 28 (14 starts) and has posted an ERA of 2.00 or better in each of the past three months. In his career against the Reds, Lynn has gone 6-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a complete game against them in 2014.

Struggling OF Jay Bruce may turn things around, as he is 12-for-25 (.480) with a double, two triples, two homers and 8 RBI against Lynn. On the other hand, 3B Todd Frazier (3-for-23, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 12 K's) and OF Billy Hamilton (2-for-12, 5 K's) have done very poorly in the matchup. The relievers for the Cardinals are 23-21 (.523) this year with a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and have saved 52-of-68 (77%) games before Friday. Trevor Rosenthal (3.26 ERA, 44 saves) has really struggled with his control (5.4 BB/9), but makes up for it with 11.2 K/9 while allowing two homers in 69 frames (0.26 HR/9).