Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services
12/07: Sunday NFL Free Pick:
Bills/Broncos Over the total. 56 degrees, sunny with no wind in Denver for Sunday! Buffalo really hasn’t faced many good offenses. They allowed 22 to San Diego in a loss and 37 at home to the Pats. Denver’s no-huddle offense will get up early and the and the over is 38-18-2 in the Broncos last 58 vs. a team with a winning record.
Play the Bills/Broncos Over the total.
12/07: Sunday NFL Free Pick:
Bills/Broncos Over the total. 56 degrees, sunny with no wind in Denver for Sunday! Buffalo really hasn’t faced many good offenses. They allowed 22 to San Diego in a loss and 37 at home to the Pats. Denver’s no-huddle offense will get up early and the and the over is 38-18-2 in the Broncos last 58 vs. a team with a winning record.
Play the Bills/Broncos Over the total.
Mr. Vegas
Mr. Vegas Free Sunday NBA pick 12/07: 6:05 PM ET
(807) MIAMI HEAT VS (808) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: over
Miami finding life post-Lebron James a bit difficult with just a 9-10 record S/U and 8/10 ATS mark. The Heat are 5-4 on the road both S/U and ATS. The Heat have lost three straight games after dropping their last contest at Milwaukee, 109-85. In their 3-game losing streak the Heat have allowed 107 or more points in each contest. Memphis is having an excellent year at 15-4 S/U but has lost two straight games after their setback to Spurs, 107-101. Strangely enough, we usually think of Memphis as a good defensive and under team. But at home, they have been a very good over club. This season, the Grizzlies are 6-2 O/U at home. Moreover, in their last 28 home games they are 20-7-1 O/U. I'm sticking with the OVER here on Sunday as the Heat have been giving up a lot of points lately and the Grizzlies play overs at home.
Mr. Vegas Free Sunday NBA pick 12/07: 6:05 PM ET
(807) MIAMI HEAT VS (808) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: over
Miami finding life post-Lebron James a bit difficult with just a 9-10 record S/U and 8/10 ATS mark. The Heat are 5-4 on the road both S/U and ATS. The Heat have lost three straight games after dropping their last contest at Milwaukee, 109-85. In their 3-game losing streak the Heat have allowed 107 or more points in each contest. Memphis is having an excellent year at 15-4 S/U but has lost two straight games after their setback to Spurs, 107-101. Strangely enough, we usually think of Memphis as a good defensive and under team. But at home, they have been a very good over club. This season, the Grizzlies are 6-2 O/U at home. Moreover, in their last 28 home games they are 20-7-1 O/U. I'm sticking with the OVER here on Sunday as the Heat have been giving up a lot of points lately and the Grizzlies play overs at home.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Sunday 7:00 PM NCAAB
(843) CREIGHTON at (844) NEBRASKA
Take: (844) NEBRASKA -7
Two solid squads in action today at Lincoln as Nebraska plays host to Creighton. The visiting Bluejays are off to a 6-2 start and should be at least a respectable entry in this year’s Big East. The same can be said for Nebraska as they have come out of the gate 5-1 and figure to be a factor in the Big 10 this season.
I see the Cornhuskers having the upper hand today. First off, they’ve turned into a terrific home team in their still new digs, and theres’s no doubt the building will be rocking today for what should be an intense duel between these two teams. I’ve got Nebraska as the better team by what I’ll call a decent margin, and I like the scenario quite a bit.
Revenge matters in rivalry clashes and there cannot be any doubt that the Cornhuskers remember well what took place in Omaha last year. Nebraska got annihilated by the Bluejays. Forget the 82-67 final score. This game was a slaughter. Creighton raced to a whopping 44-12 lead, they were up 51-25 at then break, and simply coasted home from there. There’s revenge and then there’s meaningful revenge. I think it’s pretty safe to put this in the latter catgeory for Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers showed me something in their last outing. They raced to a huge lead at Florida State and nearly let it get away in the second half as they got a little lax on defense and also got out of their offense. But I liked the way they were able to gather themselves late and hanging on to get that win was impressive.
Creighton has one tremendous comeback win under its belt this season, as they clawed back from a massive deficit to upset Oklahoma on the road. But they might have been a little fortunate in that game, and the losses to Ole Miss and Tulsa weren’t particularly encouraging.
I see the matchup edge being on the defensive end for Nebraska. They learned a good lesson at Florida State about what happens if they get comfortable and should benefit from that experience here. Considering the revenge motive, I’m really not worried about a letup in this game. In fact, I’d like to believe that if there’s one team the Cornhuskers would like to deliver a strong message to, it’s this opponent.
No bargain on the betting line. A better case can be made that the books have actually pushed this number a bit past where it power rates because of the intangibles factor and that they’re looking to try and encourage some underdog money. They might well succeed on that count as I can see the math players taking what they might perceive as a slight value with the dog. But I like the situation as the overriding factor, and I’m betting Nebraska will as well.
Bonus Play Sunday 7:00 PM NCAAB
(843) CREIGHTON at (844) NEBRASKA
Take: (844) NEBRASKA -7
Two solid squads in action today at Lincoln as Nebraska plays host to Creighton. The visiting Bluejays are off to a 6-2 start and should be at least a respectable entry in this year’s Big East. The same can be said for Nebraska as they have come out of the gate 5-1 and figure to be a factor in the Big 10 this season.
I see the Cornhuskers having the upper hand today. First off, they’ve turned into a terrific home team in their still new digs, and theres’s no doubt the building will be rocking today for what should be an intense duel between these two teams. I’ve got Nebraska as the better team by what I’ll call a decent margin, and I like the scenario quite a bit.
Revenge matters in rivalry clashes and there cannot be any doubt that the Cornhuskers remember well what took place in Omaha last year. Nebraska got annihilated by the Bluejays. Forget the 82-67 final score. This game was a slaughter. Creighton raced to a whopping 44-12 lead, they were up 51-25 at then break, and simply coasted home from there. There’s revenge and then there’s meaningful revenge. I think it’s pretty safe to put this in the latter catgeory for Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers showed me something in their last outing. They raced to a huge lead at Florida State and nearly let it get away in the second half as they got a little lax on defense and also got out of their offense. But I liked the way they were able to gather themselves late and hanging on to get that win was impressive.
Creighton has one tremendous comeback win under its belt this season, as they clawed back from a massive deficit to upset Oklahoma on the road. But they might have been a little fortunate in that game, and the losses to Ole Miss and Tulsa weren’t particularly encouraging.
I see the matchup edge being on the defensive end for Nebraska. They learned a good lesson at Florida State about what happens if they get comfortable and should benefit from that experience here. Considering the revenge motive, I’m really not worried about a letup in this game. In fact, I’d like to believe that if there’s one team the Cornhuskers would like to deliver a strong message to, it’s this opponent.
No bargain on the betting line. A better case can be made that the books have actually pushed this number a bit past where it power rates because of the intangibles factor and that they’re looking to try and encourage some underdog money. They might well succeed on that count as I can see the math players taking what they might perceive as a slight value with the dog. But I like the situation as the overriding factor, and I’m betting Nebraska will as well.
Jim Feist
Comp NBA Pick for Sunday, December 7, 2014: 9:35 PM ET
(813) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS (814) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Take: (814) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, December 7, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the New Orleans Pelicans and LA Lakers. At 5-15 you don't expect the Lakers to win many games this year. However, you can pick their spots and I think this is one tonight. The Lakers catch the Pelicans in the 2nd of a back-to-back spot here. New Orleans isn't exactly have a very good year either at 8-9 S/U and ATS. On the road, New Orleans is only 3-7 S/U and 4-6 ATS. The New Orleans offense has scored more than 91 points just one time in the last five games. The Lakers have won two of their last four games including a big win in OT at Toronto. The Lakers have had a good offensive efficency with a 107.5 rating and good pace at 94.8, both above the league average. The Pelicans haven't done well against the NBA Pacific, going just 5-14-1 the last 20 games. The Lakers have their spots and tonight is one, take the Lakers.
Comp NBA Pick for Sunday, December 7, 2014: 9:35 PM ET
(813) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS (814) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Take: (814) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, December 7, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the New Orleans Pelicans and LA Lakers. At 5-15 you don't expect the Lakers to win many games this year. However, you can pick their spots and I think this is one tonight. The Lakers catch the Pelicans in the 2nd of a back-to-back spot here. New Orleans isn't exactly have a very good year either at 8-9 S/U and ATS. On the road, New Orleans is only 3-7 S/U and 4-6 ATS. The New Orleans offense has scored more than 91 points just one time in the last five games. The Lakers have won two of their last four games including a big win in OT at Toronto. The Lakers have had a good offensive efficency with a 107.5 rating and good pace at 94.8, both above the league average. The Pelicans haven't done well against the NBA Pacific, going just 5-14-1 the last 20 games. The Lakers have their spots and tonight is one, take the Lakers.
Jack Jones
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cardinals/Chiefs UNDER 40
I debated taking a side in this game for too long. I just could not come up with one as I believe it is simply too close to call. But, I had no problem coming up with a play on the total. This game should go way under the number barring defense or special teams touchdowns. Both defenses will shut down weak opposing offenses, and I don’t expect either team to get to 20 points in this one.
These are two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 28th in the league in total offense, averaging just 312.0 yards per game. The Cardinals rank 23rd in total offense, averaging just 321.9 yards per game. The Cardinals’ offense is really hurting right now with the loss of Carson Palmer. Plus, running back Andre Ellington is doubtful to play this week, while star receiver is questionable to return after missing the last two games due to injury.
Both teams feature elite defenses, which is the only reason either of them are in the playoff hunt right now. The Chiefs rank 4th in the league in scoring defense (18.7 points/game) and 9th in total defense (333.2 yards/game). The Cardinals also rank 4th in scoring defense (18.7 points/game) and 13th in total defense (352.5 yards/game).
The reason this is such a good under bet is because of the matchups. The Chiefs have no passing game, averaging just 185 passing yards per game. They cannot exploit Arizona’s weakness, which is its passing defense. The Chiefs have a great running game, averaging 128 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. Well, the Cardinals are elite at stopping the run, giving up just 89 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.
Arizona doesn’t run the football at all as it averages just 75 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry, and its problems are even more magnified with the loss of Ellington. The Chiefs’ weakness is against the run as they give up 136 rushing yards per game.
Arizona’s offensive strength is its passing attack, averaging 247 yards per game. Kansas City’s strength defensively is its passing D, which only allows 197 yards per game. Simply put, both offenses are going to struggle to move the football given the matchups.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (ARIZONA) – in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game or less committed) after 8-plus games are 32-6 (84.2%) since 1983. Both teams average 1.1 turnovers per game as they rarely give easy scoring opportunities to the opposition.
Kansas City is 7-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in its last game over the past three seasons. Arizona is 7-0 to the UNDER as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Chiefs are 32-15 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% in the second half of the season since 1992. The UNDER is 10-1 in Chiefs last 11 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Cardinals/Chiefs UNDER 40
I debated taking a side in this game for too long. I just could not come up with one as I believe it is simply too close to call. But, I had no problem coming up with a play on the total. This game should go way under the number barring defense or special teams touchdowns. Both defenses will shut down weak opposing offenses, and I don’t expect either team to get to 20 points in this one.
These are two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 28th in the league in total offense, averaging just 312.0 yards per game. The Cardinals rank 23rd in total offense, averaging just 321.9 yards per game. The Cardinals’ offense is really hurting right now with the loss of Carson Palmer. Plus, running back Andre Ellington is doubtful to play this week, while star receiver is questionable to return after missing the last two games due to injury.
Both teams feature elite defenses, which is the only reason either of them are in the playoff hunt right now. The Chiefs rank 4th in the league in scoring defense (18.7 points/game) and 9th in total defense (333.2 yards/game). The Cardinals also rank 4th in scoring defense (18.7 points/game) and 13th in total defense (352.5 yards/game).
The reason this is such a good under bet is because of the matchups. The Chiefs have no passing game, averaging just 185 passing yards per game. They cannot exploit Arizona’s weakness, which is its passing defense. The Chiefs have a great running game, averaging 128 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. Well, the Cardinals are elite at stopping the run, giving up just 89 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.
Arizona doesn’t run the football at all as it averages just 75 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry, and its problems are even more magnified with the loss of Ellington. The Chiefs’ weakness is against the run as they give up 136 rushing yards per game.
Arizona’s offensive strength is its passing attack, averaging 247 yards per game. Kansas City’s strength defensively is its passing D, which only allows 197 yards per game. Simply put, both offenses are going to struggle to move the football given the matchups.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (ARIZONA) – in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game or less committed) after 8-plus games are 32-6 (84.2%) since 1983. Both teams average 1.1 turnovers per game as they rarely give easy scoring opportunities to the opposition.
Kansas City is 7-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in its last game over the past three seasons. Arizona is 7-0 to the UNDER as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Chiefs are 32-15 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% in the second half of the season since 1992. The UNDER is 10-1 in Chiefs last 11 games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
Red Dog Sports
Towson vs. Georgetown
Free pick on Towson +17
Towson opened the season with a bad loss to Alabama but is 7-0 since then. They were able to win at Monmouth on the road in OT. Georgetown has been off for a week since playing in the Battle For Atlantis as they faced tough teams like Florida, Wisconsin and Butler and now play 12 noon on Sunday. They have Kansas on deck later in the week.
The Hoyas beat Robert Morris by 14 and Texas A&M CC by 16 earlier. These two played two years ago and it was 46-40 but the Tigers did lose some key players from last year. They are led by senior Four McGlynn at 14 ppg, Davis 11.5 ppg and 9 rebounds and Gavrilic at 9 ppg and several in the 5 to 7 points range.
Georgetown has two double digit scorers in Smith-Rivera 14 ppg and Smith 13 and next is Peak with 9 per game. Kenpom has the Hoyas winning by 71-58.
Towson vs. Georgetown
Free pick on Towson +17
Towson opened the season with a bad loss to Alabama but is 7-0 since then. They were able to win at Monmouth on the road in OT. Georgetown has been off for a week since playing in the Battle For Atlantis as they faced tough teams like Florida, Wisconsin and Butler and now play 12 noon on Sunday. They have Kansas on deck later in the week.
The Hoyas beat Robert Morris by 14 and Texas A&M CC by 16 earlier. These two played two years ago and it was 46-40 but the Tigers did lose some key players from last year. They are led by senior Four McGlynn at 14 ppg, Davis 11.5 ppg and 9 rebounds and Gavrilic at 9 ppg and several in the 5 to 7 points range.
Georgetown has two double digit scorers in Smith-Rivera 14 ppg and Smith 13 and next is Peak with 9 per game. Kenpom has the Hoyas winning by 71-58.
Jimmy Boyd
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Free Pick on New England Patriots -
Anytime New England is coming off a loss, my first instinct is to take them the next week. Rarely do Bill Belichick coached teams lose back-to-back games, especially this late in the season. In fact, the Patriots have lost consecutive games a mere 3 times since 2011. New England has responded with impressive wins following each of their previous two defeats in 2014. After losing to the Dolphins 20-33 in Week 1, they came back the next week and rolled the Vikings 30-7. They also followed up that ugly loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 4 with a 43-17 blowout win over the Bengals.
While the Chargers are sitting with a respectable 8-4 record, I’m just not a believer in this team. San Diego has played one of the easier schedules up to this point. Their win over the Ravens was only their second victory this season against a team with a winning record. I just feel like the Patriots are on a completely different level than the Chargers. You also have to take into consideration that Belichick and Tom Brady are a perfect 5-0 against Rivers and the Chargers (San Diego did win in 2008 with Matt Cassel at quarterback for NE).
Like many other great quarterbacks, Rivers has not had a lot of success against Belichick coached defenses. In the 5 games where Rivers has faced Brady and Belichick, he’s completed just 60.8% of his attempts with 8 interceptions to just 5 touchdowns. With the way the Patriots are clicking offensively right now, Rivers has to be at his very best for San Diego to have any hope of keeping this game close.
I’ll take my chances on Belichick and Brady winning this battle and winning this game by at least 4 points. San Diego’s defense has really struggled of late. The Chargers are allowing 27 ppg over their last 5 and that’s with holding Oakland to just 6-points. Peyton Manning completed 25 of 35 attempts for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns against this Chargers secondary back in Week 8 and I look for Brady to put up similar numbers in this one.
New England is 33-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road loss. Prior to last week’s loss to the Packers, the Patriots had covered 6 straight against teams with a winning record. San Diego is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing in a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Take New England!
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Free Pick on New England Patriots -
Anytime New England is coming off a loss, my first instinct is to take them the next week. Rarely do Bill Belichick coached teams lose back-to-back games, especially this late in the season. In fact, the Patriots have lost consecutive games a mere 3 times since 2011. New England has responded with impressive wins following each of their previous two defeats in 2014. After losing to the Dolphins 20-33 in Week 1, they came back the next week and rolled the Vikings 30-7. They also followed up that ugly loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 4 with a 43-17 blowout win over the Bengals.
While the Chargers are sitting with a respectable 8-4 record, I’m just not a believer in this team. San Diego has played one of the easier schedules up to this point. Their win over the Ravens was only their second victory this season against a team with a winning record. I just feel like the Patriots are on a completely different level than the Chargers. You also have to take into consideration that Belichick and Tom Brady are a perfect 5-0 against Rivers and the Chargers (San Diego did win in 2008 with Matt Cassel at quarterback for NE).
Like many other great quarterbacks, Rivers has not had a lot of success against Belichick coached defenses. In the 5 games where Rivers has faced Brady and Belichick, he’s completed just 60.8% of his attempts with 8 interceptions to just 5 touchdowns. With the way the Patriots are clicking offensively right now, Rivers has to be at his very best for San Diego to have any hope of keeping this game close.
I’ll take my chances on Belichick and Brady winning this battle and winning this game by at least 4 points. San Diego’s defense has really struggled of late. The Chargers are allowing 27 ppg over their last 5 and that’s with holding Oakland to just 6-points. Peyton Manning completed 25 of 35 attempts for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns against this Chargers secondary back in Week 8 and I look for Brady to put up similar numbers in this one.
New England is 33-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road loss. Prior to last week’s loss to the Packers, the Patriots had covered 6 straight against teams with a winning record. San Diego is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing in a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Take New England!
