Sunday 12/7/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cal-Expo

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 7:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$2000 - NW $150


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 GRITTY MILLIE BOY 6/5


# 1 ME TARZAN 2/1


# 4 FOX VALLEY LARGO 6/1


GRITTY MILLIE BOY looks competitive to best this field of horses. His 81 avg has this gelding among the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings in this event. Heads into this race with competitive TrackMaster class statistics as compared to the group - could be worth a shot. Could be considered in this event if only for the really good TrackMaster speed fig achieved in the last contest. ME TARZAN - Seems to have a competitive class advantage based on the competitors he has raced against. With a formidable 69 speed rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. FOX VALLEY LARGO - The handicapping group saw this horse's name in a book. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 8:10 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$6500 - WINNERS OVER $25,000. LIFETIME NOT LISTED PREFERRED.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 FOUR STARZ SPEED 3/1


# 5 OUT OF THE HAT 2/1


# 2 STAR RUFFNREADY 6/1


FOUR STARZ SPEED will have you running to the cashier's window for this one. Might be there at a nice price tag. Surely one to keep in your exotics. This race could very well be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed figure will prove that. Earned a 84 TrackMaster SR last time out. A duplicate outing here should get the score in here. OUT OF THE HAT - Mare has one of the most respectable win pcts in the grouping and that could be the deciding factor when they head for home. This contender and Pouliot have some sort of connection going. In the money percentage for this match is high. STAR RUFFNREADY - Filion has been blazing hot the last 30 days, winning at a great 25 percent. Always tremendous driver-trainer partnership. 23 percent winners when they team up.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 97

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,250 OR LESS OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (HORSES THAT HAVE WON A STARTER SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ARE



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 DESIRABLE LADY 6/1


# 5 LA MARQUESSE 8/1


# 3 NEVER LOVLIER 7/2


DESIRABLE LADY looks to be the wager in here. With a very good 88 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Overall the Speed Figures of this horse look solid in this contest. Has ran solidly in dirt sprint races. LA MARQUESSE - Trainer has very strong win rate (17 percent) at this distance and surface. I would favor this filly on the jock and trainer numbers alone. NEVER LOVLIER - Looks formidable versus this group and ought to be one of the front-runners. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 88 - of her last contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 92

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 SHE'S HOLY 3/1


# 5 WILDCAT SIERRA 6/1


# 2 RESENTMENT 5/2


My pick here is SHE'S HOLY. Has run quite well when running a dirt route race. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Vaz will probably have this filly in excellent position to win the contest. Is a key contender - given the 85 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. WILDCAT SIERRA - This mare has a very good winning percentage in dirt route races. RESENTMENT - She has solid class ratings, averaging 94, and has to be considered in this race. Has to be given a shot versus this field displaying very good figures recently and an average speed figure of 80 under similar conditions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Woodbine - Race #13 - Post: 6:54pm - Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,100 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 GENEROUS CONSORT (ML=5/1)
#4 REJOICEFUL (ML=3/1)
#9 CRYSTAL DUCK (ML=8/1)
#5 MAHOGANY ROAD (ML=8/1)


GENEROUS CONSORT - The fact that this filly is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. Glennon brings her back again. I advocate you stick with this live filly. REJOICEFUL - This animal ran out of the money at Woodbine last out on the soft turf. She should improve in this event on a fast track. CRYSTAL DUCK - Dasilva rode this thoroughbred for the first time in the last race and comes right back this race. MAHOGANY ROAD - I expect this magnificent animal to stun some fans this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 REBEL LIONESS (ML=7/2),

REBEL LIONESS - The Brain always warns me to keep my distance from thoroughbreds in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in sprint affairs recently. The speed figure last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's affair. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #3 GENEROUS CONSORT to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turfway Park - Race #9 - Post: 5:02pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 BEN BAUN (ML=8/1)
#5 THATS IT IMLEAVING (ML=5/2)


BEN BAUN - Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last out. Without the slop, has a shot right here. Dropping down in class figure points from his November 26th race at Churchill Downs. Based on that knowledge, I will give this animal the edge. Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. The addition of blinkers should keep his mind on business today. Trying to break maiden moving from a race on the turf to the dirt. I think Heaney will have him conditioned well for today's race. Last raced at Churchill Downs with a poor post position. I swiped some data from The Brain, and his computer says the inside should be a big help to this one today. THATS IT IMLEAVING - This animal didn't run well on the soft turf in his last race at Churchill Downs. You should overlook that effort. Earnings per start is something that I feel can be a very important handicapping factor. This animal is ranked at the top in this field. Adding blinkers sometimes leads to improvement on the racetrack.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 POWER (ML=7/2), #2 X CON (ML=8/1), #8 BOOMER SIX (ML=8/1),

POWER - Difficult to wager on any animal to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. X CON - 8/1 is not enough of a price to take on this thoroughbred. BOOMER SIX - Hard to recommend any animal with decreasing Equibase speed figures of 58/50/47. This colt notched a fig in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - THATS IT IMLEAVING - Looking for his first visit to the winner's circle, today's 1 mile on the dirt will be a welcome change for this noble animal after racing on the turf last race at Churchill Downs.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 BEN BAUN on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:16 PM EASTERN POST

8.3 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE

#5 SWEETS GALORE
#4 MY WILD GATA
#2 TAYLOR JAGGER
#6 ROCK SHOW

#5 SWEETS GALORE take a BIG class drop (-19), is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this claiming field today, and has been a "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, hitting the board in three, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. #4 MY WILD GATA has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her respective last five "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+2) in her last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 12/7 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (53 - 102 / $205.20): CLEVER UPSTART (6th)

Spot Play: E R RHONDA (7th)


Race 1

In a really weak and inconsistent field (7) VALLEY PHOTO will trot past late if she minds her manners. (6) CANTORIA lightly raced filly has been off over five weeks but is one of few with upside in the race. (2) RIVERSIDE GOLD gelding has been racing better but has really lacked stamina late; command a price.

Race 2

(2) WINDOW WIPER mare was used early last out setting it up for her stable mate. The 4-year-old drops back in for a tag and does her best work late. (5) KIMBERLY R was the driver's choice of three and beat a better field two starts prior. (3) MACKENZIE'S POWER mare is the sleeper in the race because she can jump up with big efforts from time to time.

Race 3

(6) SHAKEITTOTHEMOON filly should offer a nice price and just needs a smooth trip for a chance late. (7) DUNESIDE SPLASH has some question marks with the time off and the scratch. Watch the tote board on the 2-year-old getting sent out for capable connections. (8) BLUERIDGE ADILENE mare is 0 for the year but did race well last out.

Race 4

(1) BIG SKY REVENUE is usually good for a few starts and was sharp last out against a slightly better bunch. (5) MAYFAIR SOPHIE filly will look to make it three straight; fires early. (4) ITZ ALIVE gelding trotter is an enigma because he can flash a good burst of speed just enough to put him close but never passes anybody; use underneath.

Race 5

(7) RUSSELL L set a lifetime mark last start and has been sharp. (5) JO JO SPUR gets a negative driver change but has always been a threat at this level. (6) PARKED ONDA STREET has been much better for the current connections owning two wins against similar.

Race 6

(7) CLEVER UPSTART was a winner last time in this class and should be driven aggressively. (6) LOCK AND GO the driver opted elsewhere but the 7-year-old could have an excuse in his last with the off track; threat. (5) FOX VALLEY CICRERO bumps up in class off a victory and needs more; use caution.

Race 7

(4) E R RHONDA went a very tough trip last out parked the mile. The 3-year-old makes her second start in a new barn and should have more to offer. (2) SCHMATIE mare just missed at this level last race and a good effort makes her tough to beat. (1) FOX VALLEY SHIVER picks up a good driver change and the best post.

Race 8

(10) ROCK N KILO well bred filly comes off a scratch but beat a better bunch in her last start. (4) LIFE ON THE ROW filly is very inconsistent but should offer a big price and has shown a decent burst of speed in a weak field. (3) YOUROLDLOV-ELETTER filly always gives a good effort and should be in line for a nice trip up close.

Race 9

(6) GETOUTTHEWAYANMOVE should offer a better price than her last start just missing at this level off of impossible fractions to close into. (9) PRETTY PLACE mare drops back down where she can compete; threat. (10) GET THE TERROR picks up a new driver and is versatile.

Race 10

(7) BELL VALLEY BILL owns a class edge on the field and should be better third start back off a layoff; fires late. (2) WESTERN DEAL gelding gets a negative driver change but was tremendous last out off the scratch. (6) AJ GET'S THE MONEY rarely wins but has been knocking on the door pacing good miles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Sunday 12/7 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 365 - 1380 / $2,438.40 BEST BETS: 30 - 113 / $137.20

Best Bet: COCOTIER (8th)

Spot Play: SIR RICHARD Z TAM (10th)


Race 1

(1) ANDIE SOPHIA get post & class relief; gets the call. (5) MY LOVE BI Qualifier here was sharp. (4) ITZAZIAM could land a share.

Race 2

(1) BOUND FOR FAME moves to the fence and that will help her chances against these. (5) MEGO MOSS put in a mild rally last time out. (3) SAILER EDDIE gets post relief.

Race 3

(6) SEVRUGA Trotter has fine speed and should take this group down the road. (3) BENTLEY KARAN rallied strongly for the show spot last time around. (1) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN could land a share.

Race 4

(7) ROYAL MALINDA She should get a better trip than in her previous try. (4) BRENWAY DIXIE has wheeled off two straight victories. (2) GRAIN OF TRUTH is knocking at the door based on his last two.

Race 5

(7) DWS NY YANK moves down the ladder and fits in here; the pick. (5) TIRADE HANOVER Jersey invader can be a factor in here. (8) CRAZY ABOUT PAT Sharp effort for the victory last time out.

Race 6

(1) IDEAL CARVER gets the best of the draw and should boss these. (2) CANADIAN EDITION is better than his latest. (4) AMERICAN FLIGHT can be right in the mix.

Race 7

(2) JERSEY BOY Sharp in his last two and the three-peat is clearly not out of the question. (3) STORMONT LANCELOT Easy score against lesser company last time out. (6) CLIENT NINE has speed and could contend with these.

Race 8

(6) COCOTIER moves down the scale and he should carry his speed down the road. (1) MARTINIWITHMUSCLE just got up last out for win honors at the Big M. (4) FITNESS CRAZE moves up in class but is not out of this.

Race 9

(1) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS put in a good effort in his recent trip to the post; ready to roll. (4) BETTOR BUSINESS just missed the score in his last try. (5) BOOM BOOM SHABOOM First bad start in a long time but still is a big threat.

Race 10

(6) SIR RICHARD Z TAM can mow these down for all the glory. (5) GALLANT SEELSTER tired in the stretch drive last week but could be a factor in here. (7) HOKURI HANDRAIL N could grab a share of the purse.

Race 11

(3) ROYAL MEETING with a better trip, this guy can put it all together and get the job done. (7) WESTERN VICTORY flashed speed in his last start. (1) WESTERN COLE should fare well from the fence.

Race 12

(1) SOMENICEBEACH retains the rail slot and makes her initial trip here. She can take this at her best. (3) BAD NIGHT MARE went down the road for the score last week. (4) SPELL TO CAST could have a say.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) Celtic Blessing, 10-1
(7th) Pegasus Red, 6-1

Fair Grounds (5th) Helluva Hunch, 6-1
(6th) Fire Arms, 8-1


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Aninata, 7-2
(8th) Beautranda, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (4th) Reign It In, 6-1
(9th) Dudeman, 6-1


Los Alamitos (1st) Wine Country Wanda, 3-1
(2nd) Smokey's Legacy, 6-1

Parx Racing (4th) Roar of Rohan, 9-2
(5th) Stolen Dance, 4-1


Sunland Park (8th) Citizen Geller, 6-1
(9th) That's Who, 3-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Morning Fog, 10-1
(8th) My Name's Mud, 3-1


Turfway Park (1st) Hadal Zone, 7-2
(2nd) Edolie, 7-2


Woodbine (7th) Born to Be Queen, 4-1
(13th) Generous Consort, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Trends to Watch - December
By Marc Lawrence

As famed horse race announcer Dave Johnson was known to say, “And down the stretch they come.”

That familiar phrase can mean only one thing when it comes to the NFL – December is here. And with it our tireless database goes to work ferreting out the very best and the very worst team trends compiled by NFL teams during December since 1990.

Enjoy the games and the stretch run to the wire.

HOME TEAMS

Good: We are all aware how strong Seattle is at Century Link Field, but this month they are sensational 33-16 ATS. They will have division foes San Francisco and St. Louis in Week’s 15 and 17 respectively to prove their mettle.

Houston is another such club that takes care of business late in the season at home with a 16-8 ATS mark and will be hosting Baltimore and Jacksonville to close the season.

Keep an eye on (Good): It’s turned into a lost season for Carolina. It will be interesting to see if they can improve upon solid 26-15 ATS record at home with Cleveland and Tampa Bay in the middle of the month.

Green Bay’s weather gives them an edge in December (30-18 ATS) and they will have two indoor teams in Atlanta (Dec. 8) and Detroit (Dec. 28) at the frozen tundra.

Keep an eye on (Bad): On the first day of the month, the New York Jets host Miami and they are 18-31 ATS to close the season at home. Twenty days later New England will be in New Jersey in what could be Rex Ryan’s Jets curtain call.

Oakland often dominates these monthly articles and is 19-33 ATS at what is now called O.co Coliseum. Off their play this season, Bay Area rival (in name only, now playing in San Clara) San Francisco (12/7) and Buffalo (12-21) should pad their stats.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina is only 2-3 ATS on the road this season, which is a far cry from its 24-14 spread mark in the closing month of the season. The Panthers will face division rivals New Orleans and Atlanta on the first and last Sunday’s of the month to see if they are as good as the past beating spreads.

Bad: Handicappers, Windy City bettors and fans are well aware of Chicago’s late season troubles with a chilly 12-34 ATS record away from Soldier Field. Alas, just one encounter at Minnesota on Dec. 28.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Amazingly, this is the biggest group in any category in any month, thus because it’s the holidays and you have things to do, we’ll buzz through these swiftly. The sky always falls in Dallas in December both SU and ATS and the Cowboys are 19-34 ATS and they have to visit Chicago, Philadelphia and Washington. Speaking of Philly, they are a loathsome 17-32 ATS outside the City of Brotherly Love and close the year at Washington and at the Giants.

Oakland is as inept as the Eagles away from home (and pretty much everywhere) with a matching 17-32 ATS mark and will be in Kansas City (12/14) and Denver (12/28), likely making it another December to remember for Raiders fans.

Houston is 11-19 ATS and has stops at Jacksonville and Indianapolis the first two weeks of the month. Tampa Bay is 18-30 ATS and will try and play with just 11 players on the field at Detroit and Carolina to start the last month of 2014.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): If you prefer to wager on favorites, the Packers should be your favorite team this month with a 45-24 ATS record. Expect Green Bay to be doling out the points four times in December.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Miami is the only team that could favored five times this month, which is not good news with their paltry 22-42 spread record. Fortunately, it will not be that often with a trip to New England (12/14) and possibly the week before when Baltimore is in South Florida.

The Jets and Raiders are both 16-26 ATS in this, but at this moment, hard to imagine sportsbooks will place them in this role.

DOGS

Good: Because of Carolina’s spread record on the road, they have also been a live dog at 28-14 ATS. Chances are they will be catching points at aforementioned contests at the Saints and Falcons and might be underdogs to Cleveland at home in Week 16.

Seattle a remarkable 40-20 ATS on the receiving end of points and might be a smallish pooch at Philadelphia on Dec. 7.

Keep an eye on (Good): New England is 21-12 ATS as an underdog and the only possibility is at San Diego on the Dec. 7, but it seems unlikely. The Eagles are a solid 25-15 ATS when receiving digits, but like the Patriots, only once might this happen when the Seahawks hit town.

Bad: As mentioned, the Bears are brutal on the road and nearly as painfully bad as underdogs at 14-34 ATS. This is worth following with contests against the Cowboys, Saints, Lions and at the Vikings to come.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Like a bad cold, Oakland pops up again at 20-39 ATS and every reason to believe they will be catching points four times this month.

Hats off to Jeff Fisher for making this season palatable, using two backup signal callers. St. Louis is 20-36 ATS as December dogs and will be at Seattle (12/28) but might not be any longer on the 11th when they host Arizona.

DIVISION

Good: Carolina is a marvelous 25-10 ATS in the AFC South but we will be as shocked as anyone if they cover two of their three battles this month with this crew.

Keep an eye on (Good): New England’s final three contests are versus AFC East foes and they are 29-15 ATS against them. The only reason this does not continue is if they wrap the top seed in the conference earlier.

Seattle has the same situation as the Pats schedule-wise, but they have a much tougher division and are 28-16 ATS.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Miami burns through bettors money like a Cuban cigar at 18-33 ATS in division action and has home and away with Gang Green and at New England.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 14
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

This Sunday afternoon we’ll final learn the identity of the final four teams named to compete in the first-ever FBS playoffs. Rest assured there will be plenty of politicking taking place this weekend.

As we head into the final week of the 2014 college football season, we present our final INSIDE THE STATS column for this year.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, December 1st, unless noted otherwise.

OIL SLUDGE

As we do each week on the football card each, here is a list of the favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We affectionately refer to them as ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans (check line)

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

These are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game.

This week includes:

NFL: Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NFL: Carolina Panthers and New York Jets

TRENDING THIS WEEK

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 9-0 SU and ATS at home in his NFL career during December games in which the Packers own a winning record.

San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh is 7-0 SU and ATS away in his NFL career against non-division opponents that own a losing record.

The New York Jets are 6-0 SU and ATS against the Minnesota Vikings in December since 1980.

The New England Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS in Sunday night games the past two seasons.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 4-0 ATS in December away games in his NFL career off a SU and ATS loss.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 4-0 SU and ATS in his NFL career as an underdog in division games during December.

The Miami Dolphins are 0-6 SU and ATS at home after facing the New York Jets, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home after playing a Monday night game.

STAT OF THE WEEK

San Diego Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers is 30-6 SU in his NFL career during December, including 20-1 against opponents off a SU loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Johnny 'Football' fever puts breaks on Browns bettors
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders (+7.5)

The only uncertainty facing the Raiders at this point is whether they can hold off the Titans and Jaguars for the league’s worst record. And if they do, will they draft Marcus Mariotta after spending a high draft pick on Derek Carr last spring? Because when you go into the locker room down 38-0, as the Raiders did this past Sunday in St. Louis, it’s over.

Heavy early money is on the Niners on this one, and justifiably so. The Raiders have nothing left in the tank and will play games during the month of December only to remain in compliance with NFL rules. Don’t be too concerned about the extra half-point or the fact that the game will be played in Oakland. Get in at -7.5 before the line goes up.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Awkward situation in Cleveland, where the Browns are in the thick of the playoff race for the first time in forever. They have a decent but not all-that-great QB in Brian Hoyer, but know that Johnny Manziel is the future. The Browns turned to Manziel late this past Sunday when the offense stalled in Buffalo, and no one seems sure what’s in store for this Sunday.

Mike Pettine says that he won’t make an announcement on the starting QB for the Colts game until Wednesday, but it sounds a lot like Manziel will be under center. "The door is definitely open for a change at the quarterback position," Pettine said after the loss to the Bills. Might be worth hanging tight until we know for sure.

Total to watch

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (49)

Game of the week, in the NFC anyway, and both teams need this one pretty badly. The Seahawks and Eagles are both flying high with two straight wins, but there is a bit more of a sense of urgency for 8-4 Seattle, which could be on the outside looking in at the playoff picture a week from now.

The Seahawks defense hasn’t given up a touchdown for eight straight quarters and Philadelphia is coming off a solid defensive game against the Cowboys. With all that in mind and the cold weather setting in the East, 49 points seems like a generous number and an Under play looks reasonable.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

It’s been a long time since the St. Louis Rams put it on someone that bad – 18 years to be exact. The Rams showed shades of “The Greatest Show on Turf” with their 52-0 flogging of the Oakland Raiders last Sunday, covering the spread by 45.5 points. That ties for the fifth biggest spread cover in the NFL since 1985. St. Louis actually tied itself, which defeated the Atlanta Falcons 59-16 as a 2.5-point home underdog in Week 11 of the 1996 season.

It’s easy to say the Rams can only regress from a win like that – and they will. But even getting a victory against the Washington Redskins could be tough this weekend. St. Louis hits the road where it is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS, playing in what could be some wet winter weather in Washington. The Sunday forecast in DC is calling for a chance of rain and temperatures in the low 40s. The Redskins are home after two tough road games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves
By JASON LOGAN

Thanksgiving is long gone and all that’s left is a dried up turkey wing, congealed cranberry sauce and some grey potatoes. And of course, the home stretch of the NFL season.

December is here and teams are fighting for playoff positioning in Week 14. We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the action coming in on this week’s NFL offerings and where those lines will end up come kickoff.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns – Open: +3.5, Move: +4

Some books are dealing a full four points on this line following the announcement that Cleveland will stick with QB Brian Hoyer and not start rookie QB Johnny Manziel. “Johnny Football” has been a draw for football bettors, sparking a massive wave of futures action on the Browns when drafted. But even if Manziel was to get the nod against the Colts, Stoneback doesn’t think the public would jump on board the Browns.

“Being that they’re winning and they are where they’re at with Hoyer, I don’t think people would have bet them any different (if Manziel played),” says Stoneback. “If it was like the third game of the season and they were playing poorly, I could see it having an impact. But the hype has worn down.”

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +4, Move: +5.5

Books have gone as high as Houston -5.5 with this AFC South battle, despite the Jaguars coming off a win over the Giants last Sunday – just their second victory of the season and sixth in the last two years. Jacksonville is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games off a victory.

“There’s no excitement for Jacksonville,” says Stoneback. “In fact, we haven’t written one single ticket on the Jaguars at any of our books as of Wednesday morning. Not a single bet at 12 different properties. There is someone out there with them tied in a parlay though. One guy.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

This line opened at pick at some books while MGM posted Arizona -1 and have stayed there despite a growing amount of money on the Cardinals. Stoneback says they actually have more tickets written on the Chiefs but more money riding on the home side.

“It’s a bunch of smaller wagers on the Chiefs,” he says. “This is one of those games where the public and sharps are going to be split. Kansas City is pretty popular with the public. There’s a lot of parlay money on them for a Wednesday.”

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

Some offshore markets are offering Seattle +1.5 with the early action hitting the Eagles hard. Stoneback, who is dealing Philadelphia -1, expects that money to even out by gametime. As of Wednesday, there is one more ticket on the Eagles than the Seahawks at MGM’s Las Vegas properties. The total in this offense-versus-defense showdown is a tough number to set and has dropped from the opener of 49 points.

“We’re currently at 49 but there are some places out there with a 48,” says Stoneback. “The majority of the early money is on the Under 49.”

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos – Open: -10, Move: -9.5

A limit play on the Bills moved this spread off the key number of Denver -10 early in the week. As of Wednesday, that’s the only significant action on this game. However, Stoneback says the money will come in on Denver – as it does every week.

“It’ll be the same scenario as it always is: Sharps on Bills and the public on the Broncos,” he says. “The real danger you get into is when the public and sharps are both on Denver.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 14
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – Week 14 of the NFL season features a few good matchups but also some stinkers, leaving bettors to take a wait-and-see approach on many of them, likely waiting until game day to make most of their moves. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said there has not been much early NFL betting action at his property yet, although he expects that will change as the games draw closer.

“There are some really awful games on the slate this week,” Avello said. “There’s Houston-Jacksonville, Giants-Tennessee, Jets-Minnesota, there’s just some real raggedy games this week. I don’t think your general public-type of guy bets those games. Of course sharp guys are always looking for the best number they can possibly get. Except for your basic wiseguy type of moves, there’s nothing there this week right now.”

One of the few big games in Week 14 involves two teams fighting for the playoffs as the Arizona Cardinals (9-3) host the Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at University of Phoenix Stadium. Both teams have lost two in a row, and this game opened as a Pick’em at The Wynn before seeing the Chiefs go to -1.

“First of all, Arizona’s struggling offensively – a lot of injuries,” Avello said. “I think (Larry) Fitzgerald’s back this week, that helps a little bit. Kansas City’s also in need of a win after losing a couple straight. Arizona sure could use a win here also, so it’s a tough call here.”

The St. Louis Rams (5-7) have also been an early mover, going from an opener of -2.5 at The Wynn to -3 as they visit the struggling Washington Redskins (3-9), who are riding a four-game losing streak. The Rams are favored on the road for the first time in almost four years and have gone 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in their past five games under that scenario.

“The Rams are getting some love this week,” Avello said. “I get it, I know the Rams are playing a lot better football than a lot of the contenders are playing. The problem with the Rams is that they could run the table, and I don’t think it would to do them any good. Washington, that team’s an absolute mess. Players are just keying on a team that’s playing pretty good.”

In addition, the week’s two remaining prime-time games offer bettors solid opportunities to either back two of the best teams in the NFL or fade them following their exciting showdown last week at Lambeau Field. The New England Patriots (9-3) lost to the Green Bay Packers (9-3) in that game 26-21 as 3-point underdogs, and both teams are favored in Week 14.

The Patriots visit the San Diego Chargers (8-4) as 3.5-point road favorites on Sunday Night Football while the Packers host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) as 12-point home chalk on Monday Night Football. The Chargers and Falcons are both coming off wins last week.

“If you get a Charger quarterback that can give you a consistent game, I’d give them a shot,” Avello said of San Diego’s Philip Rivers. “Last week he took the team down the field and ended up winning the football game. He does that sometimes, and you wonder why he can’t do that all the time. Yes, there’s different situations, I get all that. But Peyton Manning does it, (Tom) Brady does it, Aaron Rodgers does it (Drew) Brees does it. This guy’s supposed to be in that category, but he just loses something, and I don’t know what that it is. I just don’t know.

“You’re getting the Patriots, and the Patriots lost last week. Not that they can’t lose two in a row, because in pro football you certainly can. They played good enough to win that game last week. They certainly played good enough to cover. The guy missed a field goal.”

New England has not lost two straight games in the regular season since 2012. Meanwhile, Atlanta is an underdog of more than 12 points for just the fourth time since 2002 and has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a double-digit 'dog. For that reason, Avello thinks the Falcons have a shot to cover the number against the Packers, who have gone 5-0 vs. the line in their past five at home.

“I personally think so, but I’m not sure they’re going to be bet,” Avello said. “Atlanta also is in the hunt for a playoff spot, they seem to be playing better football lately. I guess what you saw last week was Green Bay beat one of the best teams in football. So if they beat them, they should handle Atlanta easily. That’s what the public sees.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 14 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move
151 RAVENS - - -
152 DOLPHINS 3 2.5 -0.5
153 STEELERS - - -
154 BENGALS 4 3 -1
155 COLTS 3.5 3.5 0
156 BROWNS - - -
157 TEXANS 3.5 6 2.5
158 JAGUARS - - -
159 GIANTS 0 1 1
160 TITANS - - -
161 PANTHERS - - -
162 SAINTS 9 10 1
163 BUCCANEERS - - -
164 LIONS 9.5 10 0.5
165 RAMS 1.5 3 1.5
166 REDSKINS - - -
167 JETS - - -
168 VIKINGS 5.5 6 0.5
169 BILLS - - -
170 BRONCOS 10 9.5 -0.5
171 CHIEFS 0 1 1
172 CARDINALS - - -
173 49ERS 7.5 8 0.5
174 RAIDERS - - -
175 SEAHAWKS - - -
176 EAGLES 1 1 0
177 PATRIOTS 3 3.5 0.5
178 CHARGERS - - -
179 FALCONS - - -
180 PACKERS 11 12.5 1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 14
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!

(Rotation #156) Cleveland +3.5 – Maybe the biggest upset of the week to date is the fact that the Browns are going to be using QB Brian Hoyer instead of QB Johnny Manziel under center in this game against the Colts. There is plenty of motivation here for a couple Indy players to succeed, as both KR/PR Josh Cribbs and RB Trent Richardson were jettisoned from the Browns last season. Both have already said if they score a touchdown, they're jumping into the Dawg Pound. Head Coach Mike Pettine is right about one thing for our money: Hoyer gives the team the better chance of winning this game. What else gives the Browns the edge? Their corners are going to be able to match up with WR TY Hilton and the gang just like the New England Patriots did. It could be a frustrating day for QB Andrew Luck and the Colts' offense.

Opening Line: Cleveland +3.5
Current Line: Cleveland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #169) Buffalo +9.5 – For our money, the Broncos really haven't been all that impressive over the course of the last few weeks. The common thread with all of the teams which have challenged the Denver offense this year is a strong defensive line. Buffalo might not have DT Marcell Dareus in this one, but the rest of that front four is fantastic as well. In fact, this might be the best defensive line in the league. QB Peyton Manning isn't going to get himself sacked a ton, but we know that he isn't the same quarterback when he doesn't have the time to scan the field and make proper decisions. The Bills aren't great offensively, but if they can get into the 20s in this game, their defense should do enough to at least make it so a cover is reachable.

Opening Line: Buffalo +10
Current Line: Buffalo +9.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Denver

(Rotation #178) San Diego +3.5 – QB Tom Brady and the gang could never lose back-to-back games, right? That's the thought of the common bettor at this point, but it is providing a great opportunity on the super sharp Super Chargers for the second straight week. San Diego has already proven that it can beat some of the best teams in the league, and last week's win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens might have been the moment that it all came together. The Chargers have the ability to win this game SU, and quite frankly, we're a bit surprised to see New England favored by more than a field goal in a week when it flew straight from Green Bay to San Diego without going back to Massachusetts at all.

Opening Line: San Diego +3.5
Current Line: San Diego +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on New England

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 14
By Chris David

Week 13 Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 2-1 on Thanksgiving, bettors saw plenty of early shootouts on Sunday which produced a 7-2 ‘over’ record. The Rams (52), Colts (49) and Texans (45) didn't need help from their opponents as they scored more than the closing total in their respective games. The pace slowed down in the late games as the ‘under’ went 3-1 in the final four games and it could’ve easily been 4-0 if Arizona didn’t score a late touchdown and two-point conversion.

Tallying the numbers, the ‘over’ went 9-7 in Week 13 and is now 97-94-1 on the season.

Down the Stretch

Since every team has played three quarters of its season, it’s a good time to point out any total tendencies.

Through 13 weeks, we’ve seen seven teams produce ‘over’ records of 8-4 (67%) or better and three of those clubs -- Packers, Colts, Saints -- are hitting at a 75 percent (9-3) clip to high-scoring outcomes.

Coincidentally, we also have seven teams that have ‘under’ marks of 8-4 or better this season and two of them are outliers. Detroit, normally known for indoor shootouts, has watched the ‘under’ go 9-3 this season while Buffalo is 10-2 to the ‘under’ this season.

At this point in the season, there are only two perfect home/away total trends in the NFL.

The Steelers are 6-0 to the ‘over’ at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh wraps up its season with home games vs. the Chiefs in Week 16 and Bengals in Week 17.

The Lions are 6-0 to the ‘under’ on the road and they finish the year with road games against the Bears and Packers.

If you’re looking for a toss-up team, then be careful with San Diego. Bettors have seen the Chargers compile an ‘over/under’ record of 6-6 this season, which includes 3-3 both at home and on the road.

Divisional Battles

The majority of games in the final quarter of the season will be divisional games, three scheduled for this Sunday.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: I’m very surprised at this opener (48) and would expect this number to drop by kickoff. The Steelers have been dismal in 1:00 p.m. ET games (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) this season and their production at home (35 PPG) compared to away (18.3 PPG) is hard to overlook. Not to mention, the Bengals defense has given up a total of 36 points in their last three games. The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in this series.

Carolina at New Orleans: This total opened 48 ½ and was spiked up to 50 quickly. New Orleans beat Carolina 28-10 on the road in Week 9 and the ‘under’ (48.5) was never in doubt. That was the third straight ‘under’ in this series. The Saints showed some punch last week (35 points) against the Steelers and the defense is still suspect. However, Carolina (19 PPG) is not a good offensive team and the production (15.6 PPG) has been worse the last four games.

Houston at Jacksonville: Low total (42) for this game and there isn’t much glaring data. Both clubs have seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 this season and the last four total outcomes between this pair have seen a stalemate (2-2). The Jaguars have only scored 20 or more points three times this season, which includes last week’s 25-point effort against the Giants. That tells me Jacksonville will come back to life and sticking with that comment, do you really expect quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to toss six touchdowns for the Texans again?

Winner, Winner!

The “Thursday Night” total system cashed again in Week 13 as the Rams defeated the Raiders 52-0 at home. Most betting shops had a closing total of 43.

For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Oakland hosted Kansas City in Week 12, which made their game “Live” in Week 13.

This particular angle is now 9-2 (81%) this season and 24-4-1 (86%) since VegasInsider.com user (A86) brought it to our attention. We’re both amazed at this angle and to paraphrase him – “It’s amazing how this system continues to power through all obstacles.”

Personally, I prefer to use “nuts” when talking about this angle. According to my numbers, last week’s shutout win by the Rams was just the fifth of this season.

Results (Following Week)
Week 5 - Jets 0 at Chargers 31 (Lost 17-31 vs. Denver)
Week 6 - Giants 0 at Eagles 27 (Lost 21-31 at Dallas)
Week 7 - Bengals 0 at Colts 27 (Won 27-24 vs. Baltimore)
Week 9 - Chargers 0 at Dolphins 37 (Won 13-6 vs. Oakland)
Week 13 - Raiders 0 at Rams 52 (Pending vs. San Francisco)

Looking above at the results, you realize how hard it is to cash an ‘over’ ticket in the NFL when one team is shutout. It’s near impossible, yet the system still cashed.

Technically, the 49ers-Raiders matchup is the play this Sunday since San Francisco hosted Seattle on Thanksgiving Day under the lights.

If you believe it’s the day and not the time, then I hope you cashed Dallas-Chicago this past Thursday and wish you well with Detroit-Tampa Bay ‘over’ on Sunday. (If I’ve confused you, email me).

Delving into the Raiders-49ers matchup further, I listed what teams did off shutout losses in parenthesis above. The average is 19.5 PPG, which tells you Oakland should rebound. Will it be enough? I’m not sure. I’m also hesitant to back San Francisco, who has looked awful offensively this season. Maybe they break out this week and if so, then feel free to come up with another adjective to describe this email.

On another note, I was disappointed in the “Road Total System” that went 2-2 this season. It’s possible that it could be create some situations for the postseason.

Under the Lights

Last week was the first time this season that both the Sunday and Monday night games went ‘under’ the number in the same weekend. Including this past Thursday’s outcome between the Cowboys and Bears, the ‘over’ owns a 30-11 (73%) record in primetime games.

I believe this week’s matchups have inflated totals and even though the Patriots and Packers can light it the scoreboard any given week, they’ve both seen the ‘under’ cash in their last two games.

New England at San Diego: As of Saturday, this total is up to 52 and that’s the highest total the Chargers have seen this season. As mentioned above, San Diego is tough to figure out. I also believe the Patriots defense is vastly underrated (18.3 PPG). New England is great off a loss but practicing in beautiful San Diego all week could mess up things offensively.

Atlanta at Green Bay: Highest total (55) on the board and it’s going to be a pass for me. Green Bay is averaging 40.8 PPG at home this season and it could have its way against an Atlanta defense that has struggled at times. However, surprisingly the Falcons are in the playoff hunt at 5-7 and the only way they can win this game is by milking the clock. Make a note that even the Packers have been a great ‘over’ bet (5-1) at home, Atlanta has seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 in games outside of the Georgia Dome this season.

Fearless Predictions

After feasting on last Thursday’s holiday slate with a 4-0 record, I came back to life on Sunday and nearly gave it all back. After it was all said and done, Week 13 was profitable (+170) and the bankroll is sitting at $220 on the season.

Best Over: Indianapolis-Cleveland 49 ½

Best Under: Baltimore-Miami 45 ½

Best Team Total: Over San Francisco 24 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 ½ Indianapolis-Cleveland
Over 31 ½ San Francisco-Oakland
Under 51 ½ Houston-Jacksonville

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 14 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Ravens at Dolphins (-3, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Baltimore (7-5) suffered a brutal blow in the tight AFC Wild Card race with a last-minute 34-33 home loss to San Diego as 6 ½-point favorites. The Ravens led by 10 points with six minutes remaining before a late Chargers’ rally, snapping a four-game home winning streak. Baltimore allowed at least 28 points for just the second time this season, but it has put up 67 points combined in the past two weeks.
-- The Dolphins (7-5) dodged a major bullet by staving off the rival Jets on Monday night, 16-13. Miami failed to cover as 6 ½-point favorites, while allowing New York to rush for 277 yards on 49 carries. The Dolphins yielded 14 points or less on the road for the fourth time this season, while improving to 3-1 inside the AFC East.

Previous meeting: Baltimore has won each of the past four matchups with Miami, including a 26-23 triumph at Sun Life Stadium last October as 2 ½-point underdogs. Justin Tucker booted four field goals for the Ravens, while knocking down the game-winner with under two minutes remaining in regulation. Miami’s running game is much improved from last season, but it’s important to note that the Dolphins rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries.

What to watch for: The Baltimore defensive line takes a major hit with nose tackle Haloti Ngata suspended for the rest of the regular season after violating the enhanced substance policy. The Ravens are just 3-5 this season against AFC opponents, while posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record as a road underdog. The Dolphins have cashed the ‘under’ in six of the past seven games, while putting a 6-3 mark to the ‘under’ in the previous nine home contests since last season.

Steelers at Bengals (-3, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Pittsburgh’s (7-5) struggles in early kickoffs this season continued in a 35-32 home loss to a New Orleans team that entered Heinz Field on a three-game skid. The Steelers dropped to 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in 1:00 kicks, while allowing a season-high in points and five touchdown passes to Drew Brees. Pittsburgh received another big passing game at home from Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for 435 yards, but Big Ben has tossed five interceptions in the past three games following a seven-game stretch with just one pick.
-- Cincinnati (9-3-1) pulled off a three-game road sweep of New Orleans, Houston, and Tampa Bay to keep the rest of the AFC North at arms’ length. The Bengals escaped Raymond James Stadium with a 14-13 victory as six-point favorites, as Andy Dalton rushed for a touchdown and threw for another score to A.J. Green. The defense stepped up during this winning streak, allowing a total of 36 points and going ‘under’ the total in each victory.

Previous meeting: These rivals are hooking up for the first time this season, as the home squad won each game in 2013. Cincinnati took care of Pittsburgh last September, 20-10 as seven-point favorites, but the Steelers jumped out of the gate to a 21-0 advantage after one quarter in a 30-20 triumph at Heinz Field last December as 2 ½-point underdogs. Since 2010, the Steelers have won six of the previous eight meetings against the Bengals.

What to watch for: Pittsburgh has played plenty of high-scoring games of late, hitting the ‘over’ in five of the past six contests. In spite of Cincinnati’s defensive prowess recently on the road, the Bengals have cashed the ‘over’ in three of the previous four games at Paul Brown Stadium. Since 2012, the Bengals are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS at home against division opponents, as the Steelers last won in Cincinnati in Week 7 of the 2012 campaign.

Colts (-3 ½, 50) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Indianapolis (8-4) continues to clean up against subpar competition, as the Colts routed the Redskins as 7 ½-point favorites, 49-27. The Colts topped the 40-point mark for the fourth time this season, as Andrew Luck sliced up the Washington secondary for five touchdowns and 370 yards. Indianapolis improved to 5-2 at Lucas Oil Stadium, as three of its final four games are on the road.
-- The Browns (7-5) were tripped up at Buffalo, 26-10 in an important game for tie-breaker purposes in the AFC Wild Card race. Brian Hoyer was lifted in the second half in favor of rookie Johnny Manziel, as Hoyer has been intercepted five times and failed to throw a touchdown pass in the previous two games.

Previous meeting: Luck ran for a pair of scores in a 17-13 home victory over the Browns in his rookie season of 2012. Trent Richardson was limited to eight yards on eight carries against his future team, while the Colts held the ball for over 35 minutes. The Colts are making their first trip to Cleveland since 2008, when Indianapolis escaped with a 10-6 victory.

What to watch for: Indianapolis has covered four of five games on the highway, while posting an incredible 8-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite since 2012. Hoyer will get the start on Sunday after getting pulled at Buffalo. The Browns haven’t been listed as a home underdog since Week 3 against the Ravens, as Cleveland has put together a 4-1-1 ATS mark in the ‘dog role this season.

Bills at Broncos (-10, 47 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Buffalo (7-5) just won’t go away in the AFC Wild Card chase off consecutive wins over the Jets and Browns. The Bills trailed Cleveland, 3-0 at halftime, but exploded for 26 second half points to run out the Browns, 26-10 as three-point home favorites. Buffalo wasn’t sharp offensively by racking up less than 300 yards, but Dan Carpenter kicked four field goals and the defense forced three turnovers to overcome a pair of interceptions thrown by Kyle Orton.
-- The Broncos (9-3) put together their most complete effort of the season in a 29-16 rout of the Chiefs. Denver’s defense limited Kansas City to 151 yards and 11 first downs, while C.J. Anderson controlled the run game for 168 yards as the Broncos held the ball for nearly 39 minutes.

Previous meeting: The Bills blew away the Broncos in December 2011 in a 40-14 victory as 2 ½-point home underdogs. This was one of the few down spots for Denver during its Tim Tebow run, as Buffalo intercepted the Heisman Trophy winner three times, while the Bills scored three non-offensive touchdowns. Buffalo surprised Denver in its previous trip to Sports Authority Field in 2008 with a 30-23 win as six-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Buffalo has cashed the ‘under’ in four straight games, while going ‘under’ in four of five road contests. The Broncos own a solid 7-2 ATS record in their past nine opportunities as a favorite of nine points or more.

Chiefs (-1, 40) at Cardinals – 4:05 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Kansas City (7-5) looks to pair of tough divisional losses behind them, as the Chiefs were ambushed early in last Sunday’s 29-16 home defeat to the Broncos. Any chance Kansas City had at an AFC West title pretty much went out the window as the running game was limited to 41 yards, while allowing four Denver field goals of 33 yards or less.
-- Arizona (9-3) heads home following consecutive road losses at Seattle and Atlanta, scoring just 21 points combined in those two defeats. The Cardinals allowed their second-most points this season in a 29-18 defeat to the Falcons as 1 ½-point favorites, while rushing for just 35 yards on 11 carries. Arizona has failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

Previous meeting: The Chiefs destroyed the Cardinals at Arrowhead Stadium in 2010 as nine-point favorites, 31-13. Jamaal Charles picked up 88 yards rushing, while Dwayne Bowe pulled in a pair of touchdown receptions as Kansas City has won three straight over Arizona dating back to 2002.

What to watch for: The injury bug continues to hit Arizona, as running back Andre Ellington is out with a hip injury. The Cardinals should be happy to be home, winning all six games at University of Phoenix Stadium, while posting a 4-1 SU/ATS record as a home underdog since the start of last season. Kansas City has won two of three games against NFC opponents, while putting together a 6-1 SU/ATS record since the start of last season in interconference action.

Seahawks at Eagles (-1 ½, 48) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 13 Recap:
-- Seattle (8-4) is turning on the jets at the right time, winning its fifth game in six tries since a two-game skid in October. The Seahawks took care of the 49ers in their first meeting since last season’s NFC Championship, grabbing a 19-3 victory at San Francisco on Thanksgiving night. Seattle forced three turnovers, while kicking four field goals and picking up a cover as an underdog in its first try this season.
-- The Eagles (9-3) picked up their fourth victory in the past five contests, dominating the rival Cowboys on Thanksgiving, 33-10 as three-point road underdogs. Philadelphia ran all over the Dallas defense for 256 yards with 159 of those coming from LeSean McCoy. The Eagles are in cruise control inside the division with a 3-0 record, but finish the season with the final three games against NFC East foes.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks routed the dysfunctional Eagles towards the end of the 2011 season at CenturyLink Field on a Thursday night, 31-3 as three-point underdogs. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns, while the Seattle defense intercepted Vince Young (yes, he started that game) four times.

What to watch for: Seattle has won five straight games in the Eastern Time Zone since 2013, including victories this season at Carolina and Washington. The Eagles started last season losing their first four games at Lincoln Financial Field, but Philadelphia has 10 consecutive regular season contests at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -3, Total: 47

The Steelers face a must-win situation when they visit the surging Bengals on Sunday.

While Pittsburgh lost 35-32 at home against the Saints last week, Cincinnati picked up its third straight victory (2-1 ATS) in a 14-13 win at Tampa Bay. These teams have split wins SU and ATS in their last four meetings, but the Steelers are 18-5 SU (17-6 ATS) on the road in this series since 1992. Pittsburgh also won 30-20 as 2-point home underdogs in the most recent matchup between these two rivals on Dec. 15, 2013.

Over the past two seasons, the Steelers are 7-0 ATS after having lost two of their past three games. The Bengals, however, are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive Unders in the past two seasons, and 11-3 ATS in home games during that time. The Bengals have the 25th-ranked rushing defense in football and will now need to slow down RB Le’Veon Bell, who has totaled over 200 yards from scrimmage in each of the Steelers’ past two games. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with an injured hand, but he’ll be ready to play on Sunday.

LBs James Harrison (knee) and Jarvis Jones (wrist) are also considered probable, while LB Ryan Shazier (ankle), CB Cortez Allen (thumb), DT Steve McLendon and OT Marcus Gilbert (ankle) are all questionable. For Cincinnati, four defensive players are listed as questionable -- CB Adam Jones (concussion), DT Domata Peko (elbow) and DEs Robert Geathers (hip) and Margus Hunt (ankle) -- as are WR James Wright (knee) and G Mike Pollak (knee).

The Steelers have lost two of their past three games and it will now be very difficult for them to get into the playoffs if they are to lose against the Bengals on Sunday. QB Ben Roethlisberger (3,705 yards, 26 TD, 8 INT) comes into this game after throwing for 435 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in a loss to the Saints. One of those touchdown passes was a meaningless throw to WR Antonio Brown (96 rec, 1,258 yards, 11 TD) which cut the deficit to three points as time expired. Brown finished with eight catches for 97 yards and two touchdowns in the game.

If these two are not at their best against the Bengals, Pittsburgh could choose to lean heavily on RB Le’Veon Bell (1,046 rush yards, 3 TD). Bell was dominant against the Saints, rushing for 95 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, while also catching eight passes for 159 yards. He is on a tear recently and should be able to keep it up against this poor Bengals rushing defense.

Pittsburgh will, however, need to patch its defense up. The Steelers allowed five touchdowns through the air last game and 143 yards on the ground against a Saints team that was struggling on offense heading into their matchup.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Bengals were able to pick up a big victory over the Buccaneers last week behind some solid play by their defense. Cincinnati held the Bucs to just 2-of-11 on third-down conversions and also allowed just 75 rushing yards in the game. They'll need to continue to focus on stopping the run as they’ve struggled to do so this season, and now face one of the premiere running backs in the NFL.

QB Andy Dalton (2,589 pass yards, 13 TD, 13 INT) really struggled against the Bucs, throwing for just 176 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. He has not lived up to the expectations the team had for him when they gave him a massive contract extension this summer, but he could win some people over by finishing the season strong and guiding this team to an elusive playoff win. He’ll have a golden opportunity to get back on track against a Steelers defense that was picked apart a week ago.

Top WR A.J. Green (45 rec, 686 yards, 5 TD) will need to be on his game in order to help Dalton in this one. He has caught a touchdown pass in two of the past three, and four of the past six games he’s played in.

RBs Giovani Bernard (540 rush yards, 5 TD) and Jeremy Hill (683 rush yards, 6 TD) combined to rush for 89 yards last week. This duo will need to be more effective to take the pressure off the erratic Dalton.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-5) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona -1, Total: 40

Two teams looking to end their two-game losing streaks clash on Sunday when the Cardinals host the Chiefs.

Kansas City lost to the Broncos 29-16 as a 1-point home underdog last week and Arizona was no better, losing 29-18 as a 1-point favorite in Atlanta. Both teams have lost and failed to cover in each of the past two games. This matchup has all the makings of a slugfest, as these teams feature excellent defenses and average offenses at best. Both of these teams are allowing just 18.7 PPG to their opponents, which is good for a tie as the fourth-best scoring defenses in the league.

Kansas City is 7-0 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders this season and 26-10 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons and 22-9 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their previous game since 1992.

Since RB Andre Ellington (hip) will not play in this game, the Cardinals’ offensive options will be severely limited.

The Chiefs hosted the Broncos in a huge division matchup last week, but they were unable to stop the high-powered Denver offense. Kansas City allowed RB C.J. Anderson to run all over them in that game, giving up 168 rushing yards to the Broncos’ new playmaker out of the backfield. The Chiefs have the league’s best passing defense though, so it will be really tough for the Cardinals to score points in this one. They’ll need to be better defending the run going forward, but they could get some help from the Cardinals with Andre Ellington (660 yards, 3 TD) sitting out. K.C. will also be up against Drew Stanton, who isn’t capable of beating them through the air.

RB Jamaal Charles (807 rush yards, 8 TD) was ineffective against the Broncos due to the Chiefs falling behind early. He rushed just 10 times for 35 yards and will need to be more involved against the Cardinals. QB Alex Smith (2,364 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) is a good game manager, but he is not capable of winning the Chiefs games, so this team will need to feed Charles the ball early and often.

Arizona's offense did not show up to play against the Falcons last week and could be in for an even tougher outing on Sunday against a dominant Chiefs defense. The Cardinals’ lone offensive touchdown came on a garbage-time pass from WR Drew Stanton (1,363 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT) to RB Stepfan Taylor (83 rush yards, 1 TD), who will start in place of Ellington in this game.

Stanton threw for 294 yards in the game with one touchdown and two interceptions. He was wildly inaccurate, completing just 24-of-39 pass attempts and he’ll need to make way more high percentage passes against the top passing defense in the league. Teams will not be stacking eight men in the box with Ellington not playing, so he could struggle even more going forward.

RB Marion Grice (29 yards, 1 TD) will also be a factor for the Cardinals, as he will likely split carries with Taylor. Grice caught three passes for 24 yards against the Falcons, but he lacks the explosiveness that Ellington brings to this offense. Arizona still has one of the better rush defenses in the league, allowing just 89.3 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL). The Cardinals will need to be ready to stop Jamaal Charles on Sunday, or this one could get out of hand rather quickly.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-4) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -1, Total: 48

Two of the NFC’s hottest teams clash on Sunday when the Seahawks head east to take on the Eagles.

Seattle won 19-3 as 1-point underdogs in San Francisco last week to give the club five wins in the past six games (3-3 ATS). Philadelphia won for the fourth time in five games (SU and ATS), by defeating the Cowboys 33-10 in Dallas. Since 1992, the Seahawks have won-and-covered in all of their trips to Philadelphia, but the teams have split wins SU and ATS in their past two meetings in Seattle.

Eagles QB Mark Sanchez completed 20-of-29 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys and he added one score on the ground as well. He will now be facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed just six points total over the past two weeks. Since 1992, the Eagles are 40-23 ATS in home games after having won four or five out of their previous six games. They are, however, up against a Seattle team that is 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons and 6-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive Unders over the past two years.

There are no significant injuries to offensive skill players for either team, but the Seahawks could be without C Max Unger (knee) and CB Jeremy Lane (groin).

The Seahawks have been playing extremely well recently and are coming off a big victory over the 49ers on Thanksgiving. QB Russell Wilson (2,466 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) threw for 236 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in the victory and he also added 35 yards rushing against a talented 49ers defense. He should be able to make a ton of plays against a Philly defense that is prone to giving up big chunks of yards.

The Eagles are allowing 258.6 passing yards per game this season (26th in NFL), and Wilson will definitely look to pick apart their secondary while creating more space for RB Marshawn Lynch (956 rush yards, 9 TD) to operate. Lynch rushed for 104 yards on 20 carries against a 49ers defense that ranks eighth in the league in rushing defense. He’ll need to have a big game against the Eagles if the Seahawks are going to pick up a win on the road against some of their biggest competition for seeding in the NFC.

This Seattle defense should be locked and loaded for this one, as they are ranked in the top five in the league in both passing and rushing defense.

The Eagles are playing excellent football as of late and part of that is due to the resurgence of LeSean McCoy (1,018 yards, 4 TD). After a slow start to the season, McCoy has really gotten himself going as of late. He’s now rushed for over 130 yards and a touchdown in each of the past two weeks. He’ll really need to earn his yards this week though, as the Seahawks are going to be more than prepared to slow down the Eagles’ superstar.

QB Mark Sanchez (1,404 pass yards, 8 TD, 6 INT) will also need to be on top of his game in this one. Sanchez was excellent against the Cowboys, going wherever he wanted whenever he wanted. This Seahawks defense is a whole other animal though, and Sanchez can’t afford to make the type of mistakes that have plagued him throughout his career.

WR Jordan Matthews (54 rec, 686 yards, 7 TD) has now caught five touchdowns over the past five games. He will be on the Seahawks’ radar heading into this game, but he has excellent chemistry with Sanchez and should be able to find some space in this one.

The Eagles will need to be disciplined on defense, as it’s very difficult to deal with Russell Wilson both through the air and on the ground. If they can’t keep him in the pocket, he’s going to really make them pay.