Sunday 11/15/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, November 15

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TORONTO (9 - 9) at HAMILTON (10 - 8) - 11/15/2015, 1:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 8-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 7-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 11) at CALGARY (14 - 4) - 11/15/2015, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 53-27 ATS (+23.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 86-60 ATS (+20.0 Units) as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Week 20

Toronto (10-8) @ Hamilton (10-8)-- TiCats won all three of their games with Toronto this year, by 16-30-8 points; Argonauts lost last three visits here, by 1-16-30 points. Six of last nine series games went under the total. Hamilton lost last three games overall, by 27-6-16 points; five of their last seven stayed under total- they lost four of last six home games. Argonauts lost three of last four games, winning last week vs Winnipeg; this is their first true road game since October 12. These teams last met in playoffs in 2010, with Argos winning 16-13 (+6.5) here.

British Columbia (7-11) @ Calgary (14-4)-- Stampeders won both meetings this year, 35-23/28-7; they are 8-3 in last 11 games against the Lions, winning five of last six played here- over is 7-4 in last eleven series games. Lions lost six of last nine games; they lost 28-7 at home to Calgary last week in game that meant very little to Stamps. Six of last eight BC games went over. Calgary won last three games, by 12-23-21 points; four of their last five games stayed under the total. Calgary won last two times these two met in playoffs-- both games were in Vancouver.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Sunday, November 15

Trend Report

1:00 PM
TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Hamilton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Hamilton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

4:30 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games on the road
British Columbia is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL
Dunkel

Division Round


Toronto @ Hamilton

Game 291-292
November 15, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
112.951
Hamilton
110.912
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 2 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+2 1/2); Over

BC Lions @ Calgary

Game 293-294
November 15, 2015 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
111.886
Calgary
125.800
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 14
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 9
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-9); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Steelers are 10-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since January 18, 2009 at home after a home game where they allowed more points than expected.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Redskins are 0-10 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since October 2014 after allowing at least 100 yards last game.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 8-0 OU (13.2 ppg) since September 23, 2012 after a road loss where Peyton Manning threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-17 OU (-10.2 ppg) since November 21, 2004 on turf after they scored 10+ points more than their seasonto- date average.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Lions are 14-0 OU (15.0 ppg) since November 22, 2009 off a game as a road dog of more than three points where they scored less than expected.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Texans are 0-13 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 385 yards of offense per game season-to-date.

NFL DFS STAT OF THE WEEK:

-- Some players really benefit when their teams has extra rest and the constantly banged up Calvin Johnson is one of those players. Since 2009, in the five games Johnson has played in with his team having more than 10 days rest, he’s had at least six catches and at least 80 yards in all five games. He’s averaged. 7.0 catches for 102.6 yards and 1.2 touchdowns.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David

Week 9 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-5 last week and is 16-11 (59%) the past two weeks. Of the eight winning ‘over’ tickets last week, seven of them were on a great pace at halftime. There were two notable bad beats, the first coming in San Francisco as the 49ers-Falcons combined for 30 first-half points but only put up three in the final two quarters as the game went ‘under’ the number (43 ½). In the late game, the Eagles and Cowboys were knotted 7-7 at the break and 14-14 headed into the final quarter. In the last quarter, both teams combined for 26 as the ‘over’ (44) connected before overtime starter. After nine weeks, the ‘over’ has produced a 70-61-1 (53%) record this season.

Hit the Road!

While the often-followed “Thursday Night” total system hasn’t been profitable (3-5) this season, I’m going to turn my attention to another solid angle that’s been very good to us – the “Road System.”

I found this angle on message boards many years ago and it’s been a good find. As mentioned earlier in the season, I overlooked it and it cashed in Week 5 in the Jacksonville-Tampa Bay game.

What’s the system?

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

Including the Jaguars-Buccaneers result earlier, this angle has produced a record of 38-17-1 (69%) over the last 11 seasons.

On Sunday, Miami visits Philadelphia and it will be the third straight road game for the Dolphins. This total opened at 47 and has already been bumped up to 50 at a few betting shops. We all know nothing is guaranteed, but hitting nearly 70 percent over 11 seasons deserves a look.

There are two more pending matchups that fit this angle in 2015.

Week 13 – Buffalo at Kansas City

Week 15 – Atlanta at Jacksonville

Divisional Battles

Detroit at Green Bay: The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last six encounters between the pair and one of the ‘over’ tickets occurred with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines. This total (49.5) is high but based on the defensive numbers for the Lions (30.6 PPG, 385 YPG), it’s hard to argue that Green Bay will be held under 30 points in this game. The Packers offense (25.4 PPG) hasn’t been as great as last season but the unit is averaging 29 PPG at home. If you’re leaning high side, you’ll like be counting on Detroit’s inconsistent offense (18.6 PPG) to produce something and that’s asking a lot. The Lions have been a great ‘under’ bet on the road over the last two seasons, going 11-3 (79%).

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Due to the quarterback situation for both teams, it’s hard to lean high for this matchup. The total is hovering around 41 and the ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run the last five games. Nothing is impossible but both side and total for this matchup should be passed.

Kansas City at Denver: These teams met in Week 2 and the Broncos captured a 31-24 victory with 14 unanswered points in the fourth. This game was tight and both the Chiefs and the ‘under’ (42) had a great shot to win. Denver’s top-scoring defense (17.4 PPG) was exposed last week by at the Colts but the unit plays much better at home (14.3 PPG). After allowing 30-plus in three straight games, KC has buckled down to an average of 14.3 PPG in its last four. The Chiefs are off the bye from their London game and have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0-1 in their last five off rest.

Arizona at Seattle: (See Below)

Sunday Trends to Watch

-- The Buccaneers have seen the ‘over’ cash in all four home games.

-- The Ravens are 3-0 at home to the ‘over’ due to a defense allowing 29 PPG.

-- The Steelers are 6-0 to the ‘under’ without Big Ben at QB.

-- The Bears have seen the ‘under’ hit in five of their last six, three of four on the road.

-- The Rams have allowed 1 touchdown in their last three home games, 24 total points, producing three easy ‘under’ tickets.

-- The Broncos are 3-0 to the ‘under’ at home, surrendering 43 points in three games.

Under the Lights

The last two Thursday night games have been very similar as total bettors sweated out another result. Unfortunately for ‘over’ bettors, the Jets left points off the board and their game with the Bills went to the low side. Including that result, the ‘under’ is now 20-9 (69%) this season. For this week’s matchups, past history would have me leaning ‘under’ in both spots but the numbers are high and probably for a reason. All four teams playing under the lights this week will be extra rested off their bye weeks.

Arizona at Seattle: The last five seasons, the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 when these two get together and four of the five ‘under’ winners came at Seattle. This number is a tad higher due to Arizona’s offensive numbers (32.9 PPG) it’s posted with Carson Palmer this season. However, Seattle’s defense (17.5 PPG) is still legit and the unit has only allowed 25 points in its four wins. In the four losses, 105 points. I don’t want to dismiss Arizona, but it hasn’t beaten a top-tier team this season. Make a note that these teams haven’t seen a total (45) this high since the 2009 season.

Houston at Cincinnati: Despite not playing in the same division, these teams have played the last four seasons, two of those games coming in the playoffs. The ‘over/under’ went 2-2 in those games but the most points scored was 41. The Bengals are a tough team to gauge for totals because both their offense (28.6 PPG) and defense (17.8 PPG) are outstanding. The Texans are double-digit ‘dogs for a reason because their defense looks good (11.6 PPG) against guys named Winston, Bortles and Mettenberger, but horrendous versus the gunslingers with experience (34 PPG). Oddly enough, the Texans at 3-5 can still win their division. The last four seasons, Houston has gone 3-1 off its bye week and the one loss came by three. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in that span for the Texans and 8-2 the last 10 with rest.

Fearless Predictions

We had a couple tough breaks last week and that produced a 1-3 record ($220) as the Broncos’ offense and Dolphins’ defense let us down. On the season, we’re down seven units ($700) and only have eight weeks to get into the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-Philadelphia 48 ½

Best Under: Arizona-Seattle 45

Best Team Total: Over 21 ½ Miami Dolphins

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 39 ½ Dolphins-Eagles
Under 54 Cardinals-Seahawks
Over 38 ½ Texans-Bengals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 10 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Bears at Rams (-6 ½, 42 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

If it wasn’t for Denver, Chicago (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) would be the best team in the AFC West, already beating three teams from that division. Unfortunately, the Bears play in the NFC North and this team has yet to win a game against a conference foe, going 0-5 inside the NFC. John Fox’s Bears rallied past the Chargers last Monday night, 22-19, limiting the high-powered San Diego offense to a field goal in the second half. Since Chicago was shut out at Seattle in Week 3, the Bears own a 4-1 ATS record, while Jay Cutler has thrown eight touchdowns in the last five games.

St. Louis (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) saw its modest two-game winning streak come to an end in a 21-18 overtime loss at Minnesota last Sunday. The Rams dropped to 1-3 away from the Edward Jones Dome, but Jeff Fisher’s team has been a different squad at home, winning three of four times. Since allowing 31 points to the Seahawks in the season opener, the Rams have given up a combined 24 points in the past three home contests. St. Louis is riding a four-game ‘under’ streak, but it doesn’t help that this team is currently ranked in the league in passing yards per game at 177.

Saints at Redskins (PK, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

There aren’t many excusable losses in the NFL, but New Orleans (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) suffered a potentially crippling defeat from a playoff perspective in last Sunday’s 34-28 overtime setback to Tennessee. The Saints had won their previous three games to pull to .500, but lost at home for the second time this season to a team that owned a 2-14 record in 2014. Sean Payton’s club is not listed as a road underdog for the first time in 2015, compiling a 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS mark away from the Superdome. The Saints have cashed the ‘over’ in three of four road games, but the lone ‘under’ came with a 52 ½ total at Indianapolis in a 27-21 win in Week 7.

The Redskins (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) showed a bit of promise early in the season, splitting their first four games. However, Washington has stumbled to a 1-3 SU/ATS mark the past four contests, with all three defeats coming away from FedEx Field. The Patriots steamrolled the Redskins last Sunday at Gillette Stadium, 27-10 as 13 ½-point favorites, the fourth straight game that Washington has been outgained from a yardage standpoint. The only positive that Jay Gruden’s team can point to heading into Sunday is the 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS mark at home, while covering in each of the past four meetings with the Saints dating back to 2006.

Dolphins at Eagles (-6, 49 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

It’s been a roller-coaster ride for Miami (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) since the removal of Joe Philbin as head coach following the team’s blowout loss to the Jets in London. The Dolphins dominated the Titans and Texans to reach the .500 mark, but were humbled by the Patriots and Bills by double-digits to fall to 0-4 inside the AFC East. Now, Miami will look for its second win against an NFC East opponent after rallying past Washington in the season opener, but the Dolphins have picked up just two victories in seven tries on the road in interconference play since Ryan Tannehill became the team’s quarterback in 2012.

The NFC East race has been an ugly one so far as the Eagles and Giants are fighting it out for the top spot. Philadelphia (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) goes for consecutive wins for the second time this season on Sunday after holding off Dallas in overtime, 33-27 to cash as three-point road favorites. Following a 1-3 start, Chip Kelly’s team has won three of four, including back-to-back home blowouts over the Saints and Giants to improve to 7-3 ATS in the past 10 tries as a home favorite.

Vikings at Raiders (-3, 44) – 4:05 PM EST

Through eight games, the NFC North has turned into one of the best races in the league with Green Bay and Minnesota (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) tied atop the division. The Vikings have put together the second-best ATS mark in the league behind Cincinnati with the only ATS defeat coming in the season opener at San Francisco. Mike Zimmer’s defense has allowed 20 points or less in seven of eight games, resulting in seven ‘unders,’ while the Vikings have gone ‘under’ in nine of the past 12 road contests. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is listed as probable after suffering a concussion in last Sunday’s overtime win over the Rams.

Oakland (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) is in the middle of the AFC Wild Card race but fell short in a 38-35 setback at Pittsburgh in Week 9 as six-point underdogs. The Raiders managed to grab the cover in spite of falling behind, 35-21 in the fourth quarter, topping the 34-point mark in their third straight game. Oakland is listed as a favorite for the first time at home this season, posting a 2-2 SU/ATS record at the Black Hole as an underdog. How long has it been since the Raiders were last a home favorite? Week 9 of the 2013 season against the Eagles, as the Raiders were dominated, 49-20 as one-point chalk.

Patriots (-7 ½, 54 ½) at Giants – 4:25 PM EST

Only two undefeated teams remain in the AFC, as New England (8-0 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) goes for its first 9-0 start since 2007. That season the Patriots finished the regular season undefeated and eventually lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl. Four seasons later, New York beat New England twice, including a 21-17 triumph in Super Bowl XLVI as three-point underdogs. The last time the Patriots beat the Giants came back in the 16-0 run of 2007 in the season finale, 38-35, but no one expected these teams to hook up again in the epic finish of Super Bowl XLII.

New York (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) is barely holding onto to the top spot in the NFC East, owning a half-game lead over Philadelphia heading into Week 10. Tom Coughlin's team have alternated wins and losses in each of the past five games, coming off a 32-18 victory at Tampa Bay, in spite of getting outgained in the yardage department for the fourth straight contest. New York has won three consecutive home contests, but the G-Men are 1-5 ATS in its past six opportunities as an underdog at Met Life Stadium since 2013.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp money on Lions forces move, but book expects line to move closer to opener

This week, we talk to John Lester about the action coming in on a quartet of Sunday's NFL games.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Bay Packers - Open: -12, Move, -11.5, Move: -10.5

The state of Wisconsin has not been kind to the Detroit Lions, who have not won a game there since Dec. 15, 1991. They'll look to add Green Bay's recent woes as the Pack have lost back-to-back games heading into this contest.

The Packers dropped road games at the Denver Broncos (29-10) in Week 8 and at the Carolina Panthers (37-29) in Week 9. They've also failed to cash against the spread in three-straight contests, which may have helped sharp bettors in their decision to take the road dog when lines hit the board.

"The sharper, dog money came in early so even though we have 75 percent of our wagers on Green Bay, we’ve moved down to -10.5," Lester said. "I do think we’ll see this jump back toward the opener as the public is expecting a strong performance from Green Bay after two straight losses."


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: -4.5, Move: -6, Move: -5, Move: -6

Questions surrounding the quarterback positions abound as Ben Roethlisberger suffered a foot sprain last week while Browns quarterback Josh McCown is recovering from an injury to his ribs, forcing Johnny Manziel to start last week and take first team reps in practice this week.

The Steelers have dominated the Browns in the win column in recent contests, taking eight of the past 10, but the two AFC North rivals have gone 5-5 ATS over that span.

"Action is pretty split and we’ve been all over the place with this line because the quarterback situations are changing like the weather," Lester says. "As tough as he is, I really don’t believe we’ll see Big Ben out there before their bye. Wise guys will wait right up until gametime to get down if they’re interested."


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Open: -7, Move: -4.5

The Broncos suffered their first loss of the season in last week's 27-24 setback against the Indianapolis Colts, but the betting public believes in Payton Manning and Co. to bounce back in fine fashion against their AFC West rivals.

After an horrific start to the season, the Chiefs have strung together a pair of solid wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and, most recently, the Detroit Lions before heading into their bye week.

The sharp/public divide is well at work here as the road dog is one of the favorite plays among sharp bettors.

"The Chiefs are the biggest sharp move of the week at our book," Lester points out. "We opened at -7 and are currently all the way down to -4.5. We’re about 50-50 as far as money taken but the public is on Denver at a two-thirds clip. I don’t think we’ll move down to -4 as that would create a big buyback opportunity.


Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -3.5, Move: -3

The Sunday nighter could potentially be the game of the day as these two NFC West rivals jockey for position in the division. The Cardinals can distance themselves over the Seahawks with a win, while the hosts can cut into Arizona's lead with a win.

The Seahawks won both contests against the Cardinals last season (19-3, 35-6) but the Cards were without quarterback Carson Palmer, who missed both games with a torn ACL.

Palmer is fully healthy this time around and while the Cards have been the preferred choice among bettors by a slim margin throughout the week, don't be surprised if money hits the home team closer to kickoff.

"We moved to -3 after opening at -3.5 within minutes of opening last Sunday," says Lester. "The action favors the underdog slightly so this should be a good game for us either way. Expecting more Seattle money as kickoff approaches so I doubt we move under -3.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: Revealing the NFL's cleanest covers and sweatiest spreads
By JASON LOGAN

As a sports bettor, I get a lot of questions thrown my way – as I’m sure some of you do too. I’m always asked about my craziest win and my most painful beat, but one of the more common questions/scenarios posed is whether I’d rather win a bet on a last-second field goal in a back-and-forth game OR cash in on a blowout in which my money was safe since the first quarter.

For me, I’ll take the last-second squeaker.

A big part of what makes sports betting appealing is drama. Not so much the drama on the field, but the inner war being waged due to wagers. We’re talking about sweats here people. Good ol' fashioned edge-of-your-seat, hold-your-breath, face-dropping, barf-bubbling sweats. The kind of finish that you can’t tell whether people are desperately cheering for a goal-line stand to stay Under the total or rooting for a group of astronauts blowing up a doomsday meteorite that was just minutes from crashing into the earth.

But that’s me. I like to have a fishing story to tell. You never see a group of dudes at the bar huddled around a guy spinning yarn about how he took Seattle to cover the +1.5 versus Denver in Super Bowl XLVIII – a game the Seahawks covered from start to finish with a 43-8 squash.

And if you’re like me, then you’re probably not betting on Carolina Panthers' games any time soon. The 8-0 Panthers, according to Covers’ exclusive Bet Graphs (which track the ATS progress throughout a game), are the least sweaty team in the NFL – the Right Guard Sport – when you take into account their ATS success (6-2 ATS - third in the NFL) and the amount of game time in which they’ve covered the spread, which is 62 percent.

That means that of the roughly 490 total minutes of football Carolina has played, it’s covered for bettors in almost 304 of those minutes. It makes sense: the Panthers are playing much better than expected against an average spread of -2.25. Not that tough to tackle.

Given my passion for tight finishes and sweaty, sweaty bets, it’s no wonder I’m a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, who hold the mantle as the “Patrick Ewing of the NFL”. No team has covered the spread longer during their games only to rip the hearts out of football bettors, like Mola Ram in Temple of Doom.

Heading into Week 10, Dallas has played just over 484 minutes of football – the majority of those without QB Tony Romo – and has covered the spread in 317 of those minutes. That’s 65.5 percent of their games, which is second only to the Oakland Raiders (4-4 ATS) at 69.75 percent. But despite defying the oddsmakers’ expectations for that long, Big D has been a big dud at 2-6 ATS.

The worst bet in the NFL – in terms of ATS success (or lack thereof) and time outside the ATS pocket – are the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore, which comes off the bye in Week 10 hosting Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite, played five of its first eight games on the road, leading to a 2-6 SU mark and a 1-6-1 ATS record. Breaking down the Ravens’ Bet Graphs, they were only covering the spread in 26.75 percent of those games – almost 134 of 500 total minutes of action.

But let’s not all pile on Baltimore just yet. As mentioned, the schedule was a total B to start the season and the Ravens have played in six games decided by five or fewer points, facing an average spread of -1.25. Opponents haven’t really had to lay it on thick to cover against John Harbaugh’s guys. But that said, bettors aren’t asking for the moon from Baltimore either.

Now, there are a number of factors that go into the percent of game time a team actually covers the spread – most importantly the pointspread itself. The NFL’s top teams obviously face larger piles of chalk each week, taking more time to exceed those lines than say a team that was pegged as a short favorite.

As an example, the New England Patriots – for all their dominance this season – have gone 5-2-1 ATS and were covering the spread in just 258 of their total 480 minutes of game time heading into Sunday. That’s only 53.75 percent, thanks to New England backers battling an average spread of just over a touchdown per game. Even with Tom Brady & Co. scoring 0.514 points per play, it take a few ticks of the clock to come through at the window.

The Green Bay Packers, on the other hand, have taken on an average spread of -5.6 points per week, and have managed to cover that number in five of their eight games, meeting oddsmakers’ expectations for only 186 total minutes of game time this season – 38.75 percent. It’s been even worse in the past three contests, with the Cheeseheads going 0-3 ATS and covering for about 18 minutes combined versus San Diego, Denver and Carolina.

The NFL’s undefeated ATS team, the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 7-0-1 against the spread (recording a push in Week 5), have had a tougher time cashing in with the market reacting to their SU success (8-0 SU). Through the first four games of the season, the Bengals were covering more than 87 percent of total game time but has since watched that drop to 23.5 percent over the last four outings. Cincinnati is giving 10.5 points at home to Houston this weekend.

So what does it all mean in the grand scheme of football betting? I guess tracking these ATS/time percentages will give you an idea of how often a NFL team is competitive, at least in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Here’s a look at the top and bottom in terms of time played covering:

1. Oakland (4-4 ATS) 69.75%
2. Dallas (2-6 ATS) 65.5%
3. Pittsburgh (5-3-1 ATS) 62.11%
4. Carolina (6-2 ATS) 62.0%
5. Jacksonville (4-4 ATS) 60.02%

-

28. Houston (3-5 ATS) 32.25%
29. Miami (3-5 ATS) 32.25%
30. Philadelphia (4-4 ATS) 32.12%
31. Atlanta (4-5 ATS) 31.0%
32. Baltimore (1-6-1 ATS) 26.75%

Prime numbers

The Bills-Jets game Thursday night followed a season-long trend for NFL primetime games, one we’ve been tracking every few weeks. Those AFC East rivals produced another ATS win for the underdog (Buffalo won 22-17 as a 2.5-point pup) and another payday for the Under (final stayed below the 42-point total.

Those results make Underdogs 17-11-1 ATS (60%) in primetime games – Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights – and gave those showcases a collective 9-19-1 Over/Under mark on the season, with teams playing below the total 68 percent of the time under the lights heading into the weekend.

Let the big dog eat!

Last week, we looked at a current trend of NFL road underdogs of six or more points going 18-12-1 ATS (60%) heading into Sunday’s action. There were three road teams getting 6-plus – Washington, Tennessee, and Jacksonville – and while the Redskins (+13.5) couldn’t keep it close versus the Patriots, the Titans and Jaguars (+7.5) came through for bettors, improving that trend to 20-13-1 ATS (almost 61%).

This Sunday, there are a handful of teams getting six or more points away from home: Detroit +11.5 at Green Bay, Chicago +7 at St. Louis, Miami +6 at Philadelphia, and Houston +10.5 at Cincinnati.

Pants-Pooping Trend of the Week

This week, we have dueling Trends of the Week centered around the Chiefs-Broncos game.

First, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is notorious for coming off the bye week strong, posting a 13-1 SU record and 10-4 ATS mark off the bye during his time in Philadelphia, but going 1-1 SU and ATS fresh from a week off in his two seasons with the Chiefs.

Second, the Broncos are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS off a loss since Peyton Manning took over at quarterback. Denver has also played Over in seven of those games following a regular season loss. Manning was back at practice Thursday despite a foot injury and is expected to play against Kansas City and avenge the Broncos’ first loss of the season, dropping a 27-24 decision to Indianapolis last Sunday.

The Madden Project

Hey, remember when chess master and all-around weirdo Bobby Fischer took on a MIT super computer back in late 70’s and whooped that machine’s ass (if it had one)? Well, this ain’t that.

We’re merely simulating weekly NFL games on Madden 16 for Xbox One to see if there is any handicapping value – and so far there really hasn’t (it did go 2-1 ATS last week). Although, the machine is doing better than like half the people in my weekly NFL pick’em pool. Here are this week’s sims…

New England at New York: 41-21/48-35/24-21 – New England wins 38-26.6
Arizona at Seattle: 20-13/21-27/35-34 – Arizona wins 25.3-24.6
Kansas City at Denver: 17-28/20-30/24-21 OT – Denver win 26.3-20.3

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Madden 16 season: 16-14-1 ATS (53%)

Yes We Cam!

How much is a win over Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers worth to Cam Newton’s MVP campaign?

Well, the 8-0 Panthers’ dual-threat QB passed for almost 300 yards, threw three touchdowns and added another 57 yards and a score on the ground, bumping him from +600 to win MVP to +400 heading into Week 10. Newton opened the season at +1,500 to win the league’s top individual honor.

Rodgers, who opened at +300 back in July, watched his MVP odds move from +350 to +500. Tom Brady is the clubhouse leader as of Week 10, moving from -180 to -300 following the Patriots’ win against Washington.

Biggest line move…

Houston at Cincinnati. The Bengals opened as big as 13-point favorites for this Monday nighter, but have been bet down as low as -10.5 at some online markets.

Another notable adjustment is the total for the Dolphins-Eagles game, which opened 47 and climbed to as high as 50 points at some online books. In Las Vegas, CG Technology – which operates books at The M, Cosmopolitan and Venetian – went as high as 49.5 with wiseguys blasting the Over.

“I guess they think Sam Bradford has turned a corner,” says Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology.

Sharps like…

Jacksonville. The Jaguars opened as 6.5-point road underdogs at Baltimore in Week 10 and smart money has trimmed a full point off that line, bring the spread down to -5.5. There has also been some wiseguy money show up on Detroit just before the weekend, moving that spread from Green Bay -11 to -10.5.

Biggest sweat…

Carolina at Tennessee. According to Simbal, 95 percent of the total handle on this game is riding on the Panthers. This game also has a ton of parlays tied to it.

“We took 36 bets on Carolina before taking a single bet on the Titans,” says Simbal. “People are finally buying into the Panthers.”

Banker Game…

New England at New York. The NFL schedule makers didn’t do the sportsbooks any favors in Week 10, slotting three of the four most public teams in football right now in the late games. The Patriots -7.5 will be on every parlay that comes to the window Sunday, as will the Denver Broncos. Many of those will also include the Cincinnati Bengals Monday night.

“If the Panthers lose or fail to cover the spread, there won’t be as much live stuff going into the afternoon games,” says Simbal. “If the Panthers get there, it won’t crush the books unless the Pats and Broncos also get there.”

Daily Fantasy Player of the Week

This shit is getting ridiculous. We went with Steelers TE Heath Miller last week, and he laid an egg with only 4.7 DFS points. So far this season, my Player of the Week picks have combined for 52.5 points through nine weeks – that’s a piss-poor 5.8 points a pick. To put that into perspective, DeAngelo Williams had 71 percent of that when he put up 37.5 DFS points on the Raiders last Sunday.

I’m not making it easy on myself though. I’ve tried to find a bang-for-buck guy each week, with my best selection being Cole Beasley with 9.2 DFS points in Week 4. So, I’m staying true to that philosophy and snubbing the big-names again this week. Here goes…

Matt Jones, RB Washington Redskins ($5,700)

Jones is pretty cheap as far as running backs come and while he is sharing carries with Alfred Morris, he’s been the go-to guy for Washington this season. He’s been really quiet the past two weeks, combining for only 10 DFS points. But we see Jones taking it to a Saints rush defense that’s given up an average of 18.2 fantasy points per game to RBs.

Injury you should know

Ben Grubbs, LG Kansas City Chiefs

Grubbs didn’t practice this week and is expected to miss Sunday’s game against the Broncos with a neck injury suffered versus Pittsburgh three weeks ago. Kansas City had a bye to help plug this hole in the starting offensive line but face the most ferocious pass rush in the NFL, with Denver registering 30 sacks on the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Injury Report for Sunday Games
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

NFL Injury Report for Sunday games

CAROLINA PANTHERS at TENNESSEE TITANS

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Out: G Andrew Norwell (hamstring)

--Questionable: DT Dwan Edwards (ankle)

--Probable: TE Ed Dickson (quadricep), C Ryan Kalil (ankle), LB Luke Kuechly (ankle), RB Jonathan Stewart (ankle)

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: CB Jason McCourty (groin), WR Kendall Wright (knee)

--Questionable: CB Perrish Cox (hamstring), CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson (hamstring)

--Probable: LB Zach Brown (knee), RB Dexter McCluster (ankle)

CHICAGO BEARS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

CHICAGO BEARS

--Out: WR Eddie Royal (knee)

--Questionable: T Jermon Bushrod (shoulder), RB Matt Forte (knee), C Hroniss Grasu (neck), WR Alshon Jeffery (groin), LB Shea McClellin (knee), LB Pernell McPhee (knee), CB Tracy Porter (hip), S Antrel Rolle (ankle)

--Probable: DT Mitch Unrein (illness)

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--Doubtful: DE Chris Long (knee)

--Questionable: T Rob Havenstein (ankle), S T.J. McDonald (foot), DE Robert Quinn (knee)

--Probable: LB Akeem Ayers (illness), RB Todd Gurley (not injury related), RB Chase Reynolds (thigh)

CLEVELAND BROWNS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: G Joel Bitonio (ankle), CB Joe Haden (concussion), S Donte Whitner (concussion)

--Questionable: S Ibraheim Campbell (hamstring), S Tashaun Gipson (illness), QB Josh McCown (ribs), S Jordan Poyer (shoulder)

--Probable: WR Brian Hartline (concussion), WR Andrew Hawkins (concussion), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Out: LB Terence Garvin (knee), LB James Harrison (knee), TE Matt Spaeth (knee), S Shamarko Thomas (knee)

--Questionable: QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot)

--Probable: T Marcus Gilbert (toe), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (hamstring), RB Will Johnson (back), DT Steve McLendon (elbow), TE Heath Miller (not injury related), RB Isaiah Pead (knee), LB Ryan Shazier (knee), RB DeAngelo Williams (foot)

DALLAS COWBOYS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Out: WR Brice Butler (hamstring), LB Sean Lee (concussion)

--Questionable: DT Nick Hayden (ankle, ankle), LB Anthony Hitchens (ankle), LB Rolando McClain (hand, foot)

--Probable: WR Dez Bryant (foot, knee), CB Brandon Carr (shoulder), QB Matt Cassel (knee), S Barry Church (ankle), DE Jack Crawford (hand), TE James Hanna (ankle), S Jeff Heath (shoulder), DE Demarcus Lawrence (back), RB Christine Michael (illness), RB Rod Smith (illness)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Out: WR Vincent Jackson (knee), G Ali Marpet (ankle), DE Jacquies Smith (ankle)

--Doubtful: S D.J. Swearinger (toe)

--Questionable: S Bradley McDougald (concussion), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder), S Major Wright (hamstring)

--Probable: DT Gerald McCoy (shoulder), DT Tony McDaniel (not injury related), CB Alterraun Verner (foot)

DETROIT LIONS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

DETROIT LIONS

--Out: CB Rashean Mathis (concussion)

--Questionable: S Isa Abdul-Quddus (foot), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle)

--Probable: S James Ihedigbo (shoulder), LB Travis Lewis (groin), CB Darius Slay (head), CB Josh Wilson (neck)

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Questionable: RB Eddie Lacy (groin), WR Ty Montgomery (ankle), LB Mike Neal (hip), CB Sam Shields (shoulder)

--Probable: T Bryan Bulaga (knee), S Morgan Burnett (ankle), CB Casey Hayward (concussion), S Micah Hyde (quadriceps), WR James Jones (quadriceps), G T.J. Lang (back), LB Clay Matthews (ankle, knee), LB Nick Perry (shoulder, hand), CB Damarious Randall (illness), CB Quinten Rollins (neck), G Josh Sitton (back)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: S James Sample (shoulder)

--Questionable: DT Michael Bennett (hamstring), WR Allen Hurns (foot, thigh), WR Marqise Lee (hamstring), LB Dan Skuta (groin)

--Probable: G Zane Beadles (knee), DE Chris Clemons (not injury related), RB Toby Gerhart (groin), TE Julius Thomas (abdomen)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Out: WR Breshad Perriman (knee)

--Questionable: C Jeremy Zuttah (shoulder)

--Probable: DE Chris Canty (not injury related), TE Crockett Gillmore (shoulder), T Eugene Monroe (shoulder), LB Daryl Smith (not injury related), CB Tray Walker (concussion)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at DENVER BRONCOS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Out: DE Allen Bailey (calf), G Ben Grubbs (neck), TE James O'Shaughnessy (foot)

--Questionable: LB Ramik Wilson (ankle)

--Probable: DE Mike Devito (concussion), LB Tamba Hali (knee), TE Travis Kelce (groin)

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: LB DeMarcus Ware (back)

--Questionable: WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle)

--Probable: RB C.J. Anderson (ankle), TE Owen Daniels (shoulder, knee), TE Virgil Green (finger), T Ryan Harris (knee), RB Ronnie Hillman (quadriceps), QB Peyton Manning (foot), WR Jordan Norwood (hamstring), LB Shane Ray (knee), G Louis Vasquez (back)

MIAMI DOLPHINS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Out: T Ja'Wuan James (toe)

--Doubtful: LB Spencer Paysinger (neck)

--Questionable: WR DeVante Parker (foot), G Billy Turner (knee)

--Probable: TE Jordan Cameron (hamstring), LB Jelani Jenkins (ankle), S Jordan Kovacs (knee), CB Brice McCain (knee), LB Koa Misi (foot), DT Jordan Phillips (knee), RB Damien Williams (hand)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Out: G Josh Andrews (concussion), S Jerome Couplin (shoulder)

--Questionable: T Jason Peters (back)

--Probable: WR Nelson Agholor (ankle), LB Kiko Alonso (knee), TE Trey Burton (hamstring), WR Riley Cooper (toe), S Malcolm Jenkins (concussion), RB Ryan Mathews (groin), RB DeMarco Murray (groin), LB DeMeco Ryans (hamstring)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at OAKLAND RAIDERS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: DE Justin Trattou (foot)

--Doubtful: LB Eric Kendricks (ribs)

--Questionable: LB Anthony Barr (hand), QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), CB Marcus Sherels (shoulder)

--Probable: DT Sharrif Floyd (knee, ankle), DT Linval Joseph (foot), CB Terence Newman (concussion), WR Cordarrelle Patterson (shoulder), DE Brian Robison (ankle)

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: LB Neiron Ball (knee)

--Doubtful: C Rodney Hudson (ankle)

--Probable: CB T.J. Carrie (hip), WR Amari Cooper (quadriceps), RB Latavius Murray (concussion), TE Clive Walford (quadriceps), S Charles Woodson (shoulder)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at NEW YORK GIANTS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: T Marcus Cannon (toe), LB Jamie Collins (illness), G Tre' Jackson (knee), T Sebastian Vollmer (concussion)

--Questionable: CB Justin Coleman (hand), WR Keshawn Martin (hamstring), G Shaquille Mason (knee), DE Jabaal Sheard (ankle)

--Probable: WR Julian Edelman (knee), S Duron Harmon (knee)

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Out: LB Uani 'Unga (neck), CB Prince Amukamara (pectoral), WR Victor Cruz (calf), TE Larry Donnell (neck), LB J.T. Thomas (ankle)

--Questionable: CB Leon McFadden (groin)

--Probable: G Justin Pugh (illness), G Geoff Schwartz (ankle)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: LB Dannell Ellerbe (hip), LB David Hawthorne (hamstring), LB Ramon Humber (hamstring), CB Damian Swann (concussion)

--Questionable: T Terron Armstead (knee)

--Probable: WR Marques Colston (not injury related), CB Brian Dixon (hip), G Jahri Evans (not injury related), LB Hau'oli Kikaha (ankle), G Tim Lelito (shoulder), CB Keenan Lewis (illness), WR Willie Snead (knee), DT Kevin Williams (not injury related)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Questionable: CB DeAngelo Hall (toe), DT Terrance Knighton (migraine), WR Andre Roberts (ankle), LB Keenan Robinson (shoulder, neck)

--Probable: CB Bashaud Breeland (hamstring), CB Chris Culliver (knee), S Dashon Goldson (wrist, hamstring), DE Jason Hatcher (knee), LB Ryan Kerrigan (hand), C Josh LeRibeus (elbow, shoulder), RB Chris Thompson (back)

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS on Sunday night

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--Questionable: WR John Brown (hamstring), C Lyle Sendlein (shoulder)

--Probable: TE Darren Fells (shoulder), WR Larry Fitzgerald (ankle), WR Brittan Golden (groin), LB Alex Okafor (calf), CB Jerraud Powers (hamstring)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Out: WR Ricardo Lockette (neck)

--Questionable: RB Marshawn Lynch (abdomen)

--Probable: DE Michael Bennett (not injury related), T Russell Okung (toe, ankle), TE Luke Willson (toe)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-5) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-4)

Line: Philadelphia -6, Total: 49.5

Two former first-round quarterbacks will square off in Week 10, when Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins travel north to take on Sam Bradford and the Eagles.

Miami (3-5 SU and ATS) fell to last place in the AFC East and 0-4 in divisional play with road losses against the Patriots and Bills in the past two games. Last week in Buffalo, the Dolphins allowed a season-high 266 rushing yards in a 33-17 affair.

Philadelphia (4-4 SU and ATS) has recovered well from its 0-2 start, going 4-2 SU and ATS since a season-low 226 total yards against the Cowboys in Week 2. In the two team’s second meeting of the season on Sunday night, the Eagles failed to hold on to three separate fourth-quarter leads, but still earned a huge overtime road win, 33-27. Philly survived despite converting just 3-of-13 third downs, and a time of possession of just 25:42.

The trends historically favor the Eagles in this game, as they are 18-7 ATS over the past three seasons when gaining at least 400 yards. This includes 3-1 ATS this season, while Miami is 0-4 ATS when allowing at least 400 yards this year. The Eagles have won the past five games ATS against the Dolphins dating back to 1996, including two wins SU entering the game as an underdog. Both starting signal callers have had nearly identical success ATS in their careers, with Miami’s Tannehill posting a 26-28 mark, and Philadelphia’s Bradford going 28-29.

Ryan Tannehill’s 280 passing YPG puts him seventh in the league, despite being sacked 23 times (5th-most in NFL). The Dolphins are 21st in the NFL with only 21.4 PPG this season, due in large part to their inability to convert on third downs, managing just a 28.9% success rate (2nd-worst in NFL). Miami’s 266 rushing yards allowed against the Bills was the fourth 150+ yard performance allowed by the defense this year. Overall, the Dolphins are surrendering 142.1 rushing YPG (31st in NFL), which the Eagles will surely try to exploit.

The Dolphins’ poor run defense is music to the ears of RBs Ryan Mathews (2nd in NFL in YPC) and DeMarco Murray (T-36 in NFL in YPC). Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS this season in games where it has outrushed its opponent, and 0-4 ATS in games where it has been outrushed by an opponent.

The Eagles will rely heavily on their two running backs, who have helped lead a ground game averaging 172.5 YPG over the past four games, to take the pressure off Sam Bradford, who is tied for fourth in the NFL with 10 INT and ranks 28th in the league with just 6.65 yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia loves playing this time of year, going 8-1 ATS in November games since 2013.


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-0) at NEW YORK GIANTS (5-4)

Line: New England -7, Total: 54.5

For the first time since their classic battle in Super Bowl 46, the Patriots and Giants will square off on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.

The Patriots (8-0 SU, 5-1-2 ATS) have been as dominant as ever this season, winning four times by at least 17 points, including last Sunday's 27-10 romp of the Redskins where they rushed for a season-high 166 yards. They’ve trailed in the fourth quarter only once this year (Jets in Week 7) and have thrown for at least 245 yards in every game.

The Giants (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) have struggled to find a rhythm as of late, alternating losses and wins over the past four weeks. Last Sunday, four Josh Brown field goals and three fumble recoveries by the defense guided the G-Men to a 32-18 victory.

Head-to-head history, especially recently, favors New York, though the trends historically favor New England. The Giants are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS during Tom Brady’s career, one of the few teams the future Hall of Famer has struggled with. The Giants are the only team the Patriots have not beaten SU since the beginning of the calendar year 2008. But New England is 58-38 ATS when holding a team between 75 and 100 rushing yards since 1992, which is a range the Giants have been in seven times this season. The Pats are 9-2 ATS over the past two years when throwing for more than 300 yards, including 4-1 ATS this season, and they are 107-76 ATS, including 75-48 ATS in the second half of the season, when playing a team with a winning record since 1992.

The Patriots are clicking on all cylinders offensively, averaging 34.5 PPG (1st in NFL) and 420 YPG (2nd in NFL). QB Tom Brady is having a monster year, throwing for at least 247 yards in every game and totaling 2,709 yards (339 YPG) with 22 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

With RB Dion Lewis (622 total yards) done for the season, RB LeGarrette Blount (447 rush yds, 4.6 YPC, 5 TD) will continue to shoulder a huge workload. Last week, Blount carried the ball 29 times for 129 yards (4.4 YPC) and a touchdown. The offense’s five turnovers (fewest in NFL) have also contributed to a masterful TO differential of +7 (T-2nd in league).

The New England defense has succeeded as well, allowing only 89.3 YPG on the ground (3rd in NFL) and 334 total YPG (8th in league). The Pats’ three non-victories ATS this season came in the only three games when they allowed more than 350 total yards, a mark the Giants have surpassed four times this season.

New York has averaged a subpar 349.7 YPG (21st in the NFL) and 96.7 rushing YPG (24th in NFL), but is still scoring a hefty 27.4 PPG (5th in the league). QB Eli Manning has thrown for 2,339 yards (260 YPG, 6.9 YPA), 19 TD and only 6 INT, and he has always played well in this matchup. Manning is 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in his career versus New England, throwing for 263 YPG (7.3 YPA), 9 TD and 3 INT.

His top target has been WR Odell Beckham Jr. (759 rec yds, 7 TD) who had 17 passes thrown his way last week, catching nine of those for 105 yards. New England will try to do whatever it can to keep Beckham's hands off the football.

The Giants defense reads like no other book in the league. They have allowed 422.8 YPG and recorded just nine sacks (both last in league), but have also recorded 13 INT, scored four defensive touchdowns and forced 20 turnovers (all tied for 1st in NFL). If the Giants front seven can find a way to get to Brady, who has been sacked 18 times, and the secondary can make his receivers somewhat uncomfortable, then Big Blue could once again play spoiler to the Patriots come Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Cardinals at Seahawks

ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-2) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-4)

Line: Seattle -3, Total: 45

The Cardinals will try to stay perched atop the NFC West as they pay a Sunday night visit to their divisional rival Seahawks.

Arizona (6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS) is leading the division and is fresh off a bye week and consecutive wins over AFC North opponents Baltimore and Cleveland. Meanwhile, reigning NFC Champion Seattle (4-4 SU and 2-5-1 ATS) is also coming off a bye week, but has been streaky through the first half of the season, with its four victories coming against teams with just nine combined wins.

Since 1992, these teams have been evenly matched, with the Seahawks holding a slight 16-13 SU (15-14 ATS) edge over the Cardinals, including 3-1 SU and ATS in the past two seasons. The most recent matchup was a December 2014 rout that saw the team hang 35 points and 596 total offensive yards on their opponents.

Bettors favoring Arizona will note that the team is 14-3 ATS off one or more straight overs in the past three seasons, and 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game under the tenure of head coach Bruce Arians. Nevertheless, Seattle is the small favorite on Sunday and has excelled in the second half of the past three seasons (13-4 ATS) and is 10-2 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the same time period.

After a spate of injuries in the first two months of the year, the Cardinals are mostly healthy coming out of their bye week, with no new injuries to report. The Seahawks are in fairly decent shape as well, though OT Russell Okung (ankle) and WR Paul Richardson (knee) are listed as questionable for Sunday night.

Arizona has been an offensive juggernaut over the first half of the season, averaging 32.9 PPG (2nd in NFL) and 417.4 YPG (3rd in league). QB Carson Palmer has had a stellar season, tallying 298.2 passing YPG (6th in NFL) on a league-leading 9.2 yards per passing attempt. He’s also throwing touchdowns on an NFL best 7.7% of his passes. Palmer hasn’t traditionally fared as well against Seattle though, throwing for just 3 TD and 8 INT over three meetings.

The Cardinals’ rushing game has been a strong complement to Palmer’s prowess, with a rejuvenated RB Chris Johnson leading the team’s ground attack, which has amassed 125 YPG and 8 TD (both 9th best in league). Arizona struggled in the run game against Seattle last season, putting up a scant 64 and 29 yards in the two meetings.

The Cardinals defense has been nearly as solid as their offense, allowing just 19.1 PPG (7th in NFL) on 313 total YPG (3rd in league) while generating 17 turnovers. This includes a league-best 13 interceptions.

Seattle’s offense has struggled thus far in 2015, generating just 20.9 PPG (24th in NFL), five points fewer per game than it averaged last season. QB Russell Wilson is connecting on a career-high 69% of his passes, but the team opts to throw the third-fewest in the NFL, and is towards the bottom of the league with 214 passing YPG (28th of 32) and nine passing touchdowns (26th of 32). Newly-acquired TE Jimmy Graham has been Wilson’s favorite target on the season, though he’s on pace for his lowest production since his rookie campaign.

Star RB Marshawn Lynch, who has been hampered by nagging injuries, has similarly seen a downturn in productivity, finding the end zone just twice and averaging only 3.6 yards per attempt on 103 runs, behind both Wilson (5.4 YPC on 58 runs) and backup RB Thomas Rawls (5.4 YPC on 69 runs).

The Seahawks’ defense has been the team’s saving grace this season, holding opponents to a stingy 17.5 PPG and 285 YPG (both 2nd in league). The secondary has been particularly effective against the pass, allowing just 186 YPG and six touchdowns (both 2nd in NFL).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

History has shown us that you can go ahead and put the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers in the playoffs. All three won easily in Week 9 to improve to 8-0, the first time in league history there have been three unbeaten teams this late in the season. That the Pats handled the Redskins and the Bengals did the same to the Browns wasn't a surprise, but the Panthers throttling Green Bay for most of that game was.

Entering this season, 21 teams started a season 8-0 during the Super Bowl era. All of them made the playoffs, 12 advanced to the Super Bowl and eight of those teams won the Super Bowl. The lone unbeaten to fall in Week 9 was Denver, which appeared to be caught in a letdown game at Indianapolis (the various sportsbooks had a great Sunday because favorites like Denver, Atlanta and Green Bay all lost straight up and were heavily backed). That's the Colts team I think we all expected to see this season. The Patriots are now the heavy Super Bowl favorites at +225. Green Bay has risen to +750.

And my new favorite player is Eagles offensive tackle Lane Johnson. I'm sure by now you have seen that Deadspin report of the beating Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy gave to his former girlfriend. That wasn't new news, but the site released some pretty graphic photos. Johnson clearly saw them before facing Dallas on Sunday and had this to say after Philly's win: "Any time I had a chance to put a little extra mustard on a block (on Hardy), I tried."

Love that.

Here are some Week 10 games and opening lines that caught my eye. As usual, I won't touch on the Thursday night game, my Sunday featured game (most likely Cardinals-Seahawks) or the Monday nighter.

Browns at Steelers (-4.5, 41): Pittsburgh simply can't catch a break. The Steelers of course lost star running back Le'Veon Bell for the season in Week 8, the same game that Ben Roethlisberger returned from a knee injury he suffered in Week 3. Now Big Ben is hurt again, this time a foot sprain. He's going to miss at least this game, but the Steelers have the bye week after that, so maybe it's just this one. Pittsburgh originally feared it was a Lisfranc injury, which is very serious. Landry Jones should be the starter against Cleveland. Will the Browns have starting QB Josh McCown? They did little offensively behind Johnny Manziel last Thursday in Cincinnati with McCown out with sore ribs. It looks like McCown will return and start. Pittsburgh and Cleveland split last season, each winning at home. Key trend: Pittsburgh 6-4 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: I'll take the points if McCown plays. Go "under" for sure.

Vikings at Raiders (-2.5, 42.5): The big question here is whether Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater plays. He was knocked out cold on a dirty hit by the Rams' Lamarcus Joyner, a friend of Bridgewater's, during Minnesota's 21-18 win on Sunday. Bridgewater will now have to go through the NFL's concussion protocol. If he can't go, Shaun Hill would start. Don't look now, but the Vikings are tied with Green Bay atop the NFC North. Oakland staged a nice comeback Sunday in Pittsburgh but lost 38-35 largely because the Raiders couldn't guard Antonio Brown. Derek Carr threw for 301 yards and four scores in the loss. Also monitor the status of Raiders running back Latavius Murray here. He ran for 96 yards on 17 carries before leaving in the third quarter with concussion-like symptoms. Key trend: Oakland is 3-7 ATS in past 10 as home favorite. The pick: Raiders and under regardless.

Lions at Packers (-11.5, 47.5): Is it time for Packers backers to worry or is the team's two-game losing streak simply a matter of playing two very good teams away from Lambeau Field? Probably a bit of both. This starts a stretch of four straight NFC North games for the Pack (also at the Vikings, home against the Bears on Thanksgiving and at Detroit) over an 18-day stretch. The Packers did nothing offensively two Sundays ago in Denver and had only 133 total yards in the first half of Sunday's loss at Carolina . That offense woke up in the second half, but it was too late. It's the first time the Packers have lost consecutive games that Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback since early in the 2010 season. The sad-sack Lions are off their bye week as they look for their first win in Wisconsin since 1991. It's their first game since team president Tom Lewand and GM Martin Mayhew were fired. Coach Jim Caldwell will join them as soon as this season is over. Key trend: Green Bay is 6-4 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: Packers and over.

Patriots at Giants (-7, 54.5): I'm thinking this one has a bit more meaning for Tom Brady than most games this season considering that Brady would have six Super Bowl rings instead of four if not for two Super Bowl upset losses to Eli Manning's Giants. Just as they did in the highly-anticipated 2007 regular-season finale, the Patriots bring an undefeated record to East Rutherford, N.J. The Giants nearly pulled off the upset then and would do so in Super Bowl XLII. Brady is 2-1 over his regular-season career against the Giants, most recently losing a 24-20 decision Nov. 6, 2011, at Gillette Stadium. The teams also have played in the preseason finale each of the past 11 years. The Patriots have lost running back Dion Lewis to a season-ending torn ACL. He had been a nice surprise, rushing for 234 yards and two scores while catching 36 balls for 388 yards and two TDs. Key trend: New York 4-6 ATS in past 10 as home dog. The pick: Patriots and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I haven't touched on too many Sunday night games yet this season, but clearly this week's NBC nationally-televised matchup between Arizona and Seattle is the week's most important game. Some might argue Patriots at Giants, but interconference games are simply not that vital when you factor in the playoff tiebreaker.

Both the Cardinals and Seahawks are off their bye week. Arizona (6-2) leads Seattle (4-4) and St. Louis (4-4) by two games in the NFC West. So one would think that the Cardinals would win the division with a victory over the Seahawks. Then again, Arizona started last year 9-1 and was in total command of the West before fading after Carson Palmer was lost for the season. The Seahawks certainly need this more, not just because it's at home. They are eighth in the NFC standings and lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with No. 7 St. Louis, which beat Seattle in the season opener.

Arizona is -150 to win the West with Seattle at +160.

Cardinals at Seahawks Betting Story Lines

With each team off last week, both are pretty healthy. Seattle did lose receiver Ricardo Lockette for the season when he hurt his neck in the Week 8 13-12 win at Dallas. He had only four catches but was a good special teams player. The Seahawks will get back receiver Paul Richardson this week. He had been on the PUP list off knee surgery. He had 29 catches for 271 yards and a TD last year as a rookie. Arizona receiver John Brown, who is having a nice season, missed the final game before the bye but is good to go.

A key to this game likely will be the ultra-aggressive Arizona defense, which still blitzes a ton even after losing coordinator Todd Bowles to the Jets. The Cardinals have blitzed on 44 percent of pass plays, second-most in the NFL (Jets' Bowles are No. 1). The Seahawks' offensive line hasn't been good this season. When opponents have blitzed the Seahawks, they've produced sacks 17.8 percent of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. That number was 10.7 percent last year. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has gone down an NFL-high 31 times -- it would be many more if Wilson wasn't so mobile. He is averaging 5.03 yards per dropback against pressure, which is 26th. Last season, Wilson was eighth. While the Cardinals only have 13 sacks, all that blitzing is leading to turnovers. They have forced 17 of them, with their 13 interceptions tied for the league lead. Arizona's "No Fly Zone" secondary is probably the second-best in the league right now behind Seattle's "Legion of Boom."

I still give Seattle's defense the overall edge as after a slow start it is rounding into form. The Seahawks haven't allowed an offensive touchdown their past two games, albeit against lousy quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick (since benched) and Matt Cassel. Both those were road games. Seattle is up to No. 2 in total and scoring defense behind Denver.

Certainly Arizona has the better offense, ranking No. 6 in yards and No. 2 in points (32.9 ppg). Palmer leads the NFC with 20 touchdown passes and is on pace to set the club's single-season mark currently held by Kurt Warner (30 in 2008). Palmer also leads the conference with a 110.2 passer rating, which would shatter the best single-season mark in club history. Running back Chris Johnson was signed off the scrap heap and has 676 yards on 141 carries. He is averaging 4.8 yards per carry through eight games (his best ypc since his 2,000-yard season in 2009 with Tennessee); the Cardinals averaged 3.3 ypc last season without Johnson. Receiver Larry Johnson looks like he's back in his prime years with 706 yards and seven scores; last year, he had 784 yards and two scores overall.

Seattle swept the Cards last year, totally shutting down Arizona offensively as it didn't have an injured Palmer in either game. In Week 12 in Seattle, the Seahawks won 19-3, starting their season-ending six-game winning streak and surge to the top of the NFC West. Arizona had only 204 total yards with Drew Stanton completing 14-for-26 for 149 yards with a pick. The Seahawks weren't much better on offense. Wilson was 17-for-22 for 211 yards and a TD but was sacked seven times. In Week 16 in the desert, the Seahawks won 35-6. Wilson threw for 339 yards and two scores while rushing for 88 yards and a TD. Marshawn Lynch added 113 yards and two TDs. Seattle had a franchise-record 596 yards. Arizona had 216 yards behind third-string QB Ryan Lindley, who was just terrible. I think he's selling cars now.

Cardinals at Seahawks Betting Odds and Trends

Seattle is -3 (-120) with a total of 44.5. On the moneyline, the Seahawks are -170 and Cardinals +150. On the alternate lines, Seattle is -4 (+113), -3.5 (+105), -2.5 (-145) and -2 (-150). Arizona is 5-3 against the spread (3-1 on road) and 6-2 "over/under" (3-1 on road). Seattle is 2-5-1 ATS (1-2 at home) and 3-5 O/U (1-2 at home).

Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its past eight November games. The Cards are 1-4 ATS in their past five following a bye week. The Seahawks have covered five of their past seven vs. the NFC West. They are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six after a win. The over is 6-0 in Arizona's past six vs. the NFC. The under is 10-3 in Seattle's past 13 vs. the NFC West. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Seattle.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Cardinals at Seahawks Betting Prediction

I'm still not buying the Cardinals. Their six wins have all come against teams currently with losing records (14-36 total record) and their two losses are against teams with non-losing records (Rams and Steelers). Then again, Seattle's four wins are against losing teams. But the Seahawks should have beaten both Cincinnati and Carolina, two unbeatens. I'll give the 2.5-point alternate line and go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFC West Showdown'

The eyes of most football fans, as well as those focused on football betting, will be on the Sunday Night NFC West showdown between Seattle Seahawks (4-4, 2-5-1 ATS) and Arizona Cardinals (6-2, 5-3 ATS). The sports handicapping experts at Bovada.lv give the nod to Seahawks in this game, making them 3.0 point home favorites while setting the total at 44.5.

Both teams are off victories and well rested. Seahawks defeated the Cowboys, 13-12 at AT&T Stadium in Week 8 before getting last weekend off with Cardinals beating Cleveland 34-20 prior to its bye week. Seattle swept the season series with Arizona last season outscoring Cardinals by a combined 51-9 score but QB Carson Palmer missed both those games.

Seahawks are pretty hard to beat at home. Since 2012, the Seahawks are an impressive 24-3 during regular season at CenturyLink Field with a profitable 18-8-1 mark against the betting line. However, Arizona bringing a healthy Carson Palmer playing great football tossing 2386 yards, 20 TD's this will not be a cake walk for the Seahawks.

The Cardinals' losses last year still fresh on their minds look for Bruce Arians' troops to show they are the real deal in the division. Keep in mind, Cardinals with Palmer taking snaps were one of the three teams to beat Seahawks at CenturyLink Field (2013). Cardinals 5-2 ATS away from suburban Phoenix facing a division foes, Seahawks 0-5-1 ATS following a win the previous effort and 0-4-1 ATS last five vs a winning team consider taking the 3-point spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers November 15, 1:00 EST

Lions may be 'Kings of the Jungle' but in the NFL these cats are tooth-less beasts stumbling along at 1-7 SU/ATS. Lions have a huge hurdle to overcome when the travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. Lions haven't won in Green Bay since December 15, 1991 posting an ugly 0-24 SU record 5-17-2 ATS mark against the betting line. Even with the added +11.5 to +14.0 points of offense sportsbooks are handing Detroit it's a tough road ahead. Lions have a 2-7-1 ATS skid taking 10 to 14 points away from MoTown, Packers have cashed 6-of-8 laying 10 to 14 at home.


Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders November 15, 4:05 EST

No argument Derek Carr has helped Raiders improve. The QB has thrown 19 TD's this season and been intercepted just three times guiding the team to a 4-4 record (5-3 ATS). However, Raiders find themselves in unfamiliar betting territory this week when they host Vikings. Raiders have been given the early nod handing Boat-Men 3 points of offense. Buyer Beware, Raiders 0-1 ATS this year when favored are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times spotting points. On the other side, defensive-minded Vikings allowing 332.2 total yards along with a 6th ranked pass defense (220.6) hit the field on a sparkling 7-0 ATS streak, 6-1 ATS stretch as underdogs, 5-1 ATS taking points in Non-Conference road games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Semis
By David Schwab

The 2015 CFL regular season came to a close this past weekend so the stage is now set for this year’s Grey Cup Playoffs. Last Friday, Toronto tuned things up for a run at the CFL title with a solid 21-11 victory against Winnipeg as a seven-point home favorite.

The big game on Saturday saw Ottawa complete the worst to first run in the East with a convincing 44-28 romp over Hamilton to claim the division title and first round bye in the playoffs. The RedBlacks closed as 5 ½-point home favorites in that game. Also on Saturday, Calgary won an early preview of this week’s semifinal matchup in the West with a 28-7 win at British Columbia as a one-point favorite.

Two CFL teams riding out the string finished things up on Sunday with Saskatchewan upsetting Montreal 30-24 as an eight-point road underdog.

Sunday, Nov. 15

Toronto Argonauts (10-8 SU, 9-9 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8 SU, 11-7 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -2
Total: 51 ½

Game Overview

The Argonauts snapped a three-game skid both straight-up and against the spread with last week’s win and with the total staying UNDER the 50-point line against the Blue Bombers it has now stayed UNDER in their last five games. Toronto finished the regular season with an average of 24.3 points a game on offense, while on the other side of the ball it was allowing an average of 27.7 points, which was the third-most in the CFL. The one bright spot heading into the playoffs is the return of quarterback Ricky Ray to the starting lineup after missing most of the season due to injury.

Hamilton limps into the playoffs with three straight losses (SU and ATS) and just two wins in its last seven games either SU or ATS. The loss of its starting quarterback Zach Collaros has taken its toll during this slide. The Tiger-Cats turned to Jeremiah Masoli as their quarterback in last Saturday’s loss for an ineffective Jacory Harris, who was making his first CFL start. Neither player could move an offense that posted just 189 yards through the air. Hamilton’s offense has averaged 19.7 points over its last seven games.

Betting Trends

-- The Argonauts are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games on the road.

-- The Tiger-Cats have failed to cover in four of their last six home games and the total has stayed UNDER in their last five games played at home.

-- Head-to-head in this division rivalry, Hamilton has won six of its last seven home games against Toronto SU and it has a 4-2 edge ATS in the last six meetings on its home field.


British Columbia Lions (7-11 SU, 10-8 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (14-4 SU, 7-11 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -8 ½
Total: 49 ½

Game Overview

The Lions lost both meetings against Calgary this season SU by a combined 33 points. The loss to the Stampeders this past Saturday was their sixth in the final nine games of the year. During this slide, BC did manage to cover the spread in six of those nine games, including a 35-23 loss to the Stampeders on Sept. 18 as a 13-point underdog on the road. Quarterback Travis Lulay got the start in Saturday’s loss and he ended the day completing 14-of-20 attempts for 181 yards.

Calgary begins its Grey Cup title defense in fairly solid form after posting a SU 6-1 record in its final seven regular season games. While the Stampeders have been a tough bet for most of the year at 7-11 ATS, they come into this contest with a 4-1 record ATS in their last five games. They have closed as favorites in 17 of 18 games this year. The duo of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell and wide receiver Eric Rogers has been the story this season for Calgary’s offense. Mitchell was ranked second in the CFL in passing yards with 4,551 and Rogers led the league with 1,448 receiving yards on 87 catches.

Betting Trends

-- The Lions are 3-8 SU in their last 11 road games, but they have covered ATS in their last five games on the road. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six road games.

-- The Stampeders are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games, but they have failed to cover ATS in seven of their last 10 games played at home. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of those 10 games.

-- Calgary has won four of the last five meetings SU and it has a 4-2 edge ATS in its last six home games against BC. The total has gone OVER in five of those six games.

 

[mudder]

sorry but where can i find the newsletters link...thanx

 

[mudder]

TY Thankyou)(&

 

[spike69]

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