Public Fades - Week 10
Three teams remain unbeaten in the NFL through eight games as the Bengals, Patriots, and Panthers still haven’t lost a game yet this season. Although there are no winless clubs, the Lions are one win better through eight contests this season than they were in 2008, when Detroit put together an 0-16 season. Detroit travels to Green Bay in Week 10 looking to hand the Packers its third straight defeat, but more importantly trying to cover a number for the second time this season.
The Lions are one of two teams we’ll be focusing on as a team that the public will likely be “fading” or going against. The other club this week is Tennessee, who pulled off a nice upset of New Orleans last week and going for just its third victory of the season when it faces 8-0 Carolina. Our experts have provided sound reasoning to back these underdogs, as the 49ers were one of the teams in this weekly article to come through last week in their outright home ‘dog win over the Falcons.
Lions at Packers (-11½, 48)
Both these teams are desperate for a victory as the two NFC North rivals hook up at Lambeau Field. The Packers began the season at 6-0, but stumbled against the Broncos and the Panthers the last two weeks on the road. Green Bay allowed a season-high 37 points in an eight-point defeat at Carolina last Sunday, as Mike McCarthy’s team rallied from a 37-14 deficit in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie the game in the final minutes. However, Aaron Rodgers couldn’t complete the comeback as he bounced back from a 77-yard performance at Denver to thrown for a season-high 369 yards against Carolina.
The Lions are ready for this season to end, even though there are still eight games to play. Detroit’s horrible campaign carried over to London two weeks ago in a 45-10 defeat to Kansas City, the sixth time Jim Caldwell’s team has scored 20 points or less this season. The Lions head to their state of horrors, as Detroit has dropped 24 consecutive meetings to the Packers in Wisconsin since 1992. However, Detroit is listed as a double-digit underdog for the second time this season and covered in its only opportunity in a 13-10 setback at Seattle in Week 4.
So why back the Lions?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the Packers’ defense continues to be a weak spot in spite of their strong record, “Green Bay has allowed 548, 500, and 427 yards in the past three games despite being a double-digit favorite vs. a division rival this week. Before two late fourth quarter touchdowns with the team playing from way behind last week, the Packers had scored just four touchdowns in the previous 10 quarters as the offense has not matched the success of past seasons either. Green Bay currently checks in at 25th in the league in total offense despite scoring over 25 points per game, sitting just a few yards ahead of the Lions.”
Nelson notes the Lions have been a strong pointspread play as a double-digit underdog, “Since 2006, the Lions are on a 16-10-2 ATS run when getting 10 or more points though with just one outright upset in that span. Matthew Stafford has more passing yards than Rodgers this season and Calvin Johnson bests the numbers of any of Green Bay’s receivers by a wide margin while both teams have struggled to run the ball consistently. Seven of the last eight meetings between these teams have been decided by 13 or fewer points with Detroit winning 19-7 at home last season and losing 30-20 in the season finale at Lambeau Field with the division title on the line.”
Panthers (-5, 43½) at Titans
Carolina finished off a three-game homestand with a sweep of Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Green Bay to remain the lone undefeated team in the NFC. The Panthers won and covered for the second time in the underdog role this season, holding off the Packers last Sunday, 37-29 as two-point ‘dogs. Now, Ron Rivera’s team goes from home underdogs to road favorites, as the Panthers have won in both opportunities in this role at Jacksonville and Tampa Bay by double-digits.
Tennessee picked up its second victory of the season last Sunday, shocking New Orleans in overtime as seven-point road underdogs, 34-28. The Titans combined to score 36 points in the previous four losses, as Marcus Mariota turned in the performance of his short career by throwing for 371 yards and four touchdowns, including the game-winner to Anthony Fasano in overtime. Now, Tennessee returns home where it has not had much luck, losing all four games at Nissan Stadium, while three of those defeats have come by three points or less.
So why back the Titans?
Nelson says Tennessee’s numbers aren’t synonymous with its subpar record, “Even after playing the Saints last week, Tennessee checks in as the #6 total defense in the NFL despite being just 2-6, while Carolina ranks 13th in the league despite the perfect record. The Titans have allowed not even three more points per game than Carolina despite the contrasting results as well. In the five games in which Mariota played the entire way, the Titans have averaged 377 yards per game with the team averaging over 27 points per game. That scoring average would rank sixth best in the NFL at this point in the season, just over a point behind the Panthers who have averaged 28.5 points per game.”
Even though the Titans are looking for consecutive victories for the first time this season, NFL expert Antony Dinero feels like this is a great opportunity for Tennessee to break through the win column at home, “Mariota has his Titans teammates believing he can bring them immediate success, which is a powerful in a league where the difference between winning and losing often lies with what’s going on upstairs. After an upset of New Orleans, Tennessee is back home in a favorable situation given that the undefeated Panthers just mowed down the Colts and Packers at home, leaving them vulnerable to a road letdown. The Titans are 16th in the NFL in run defense, so they’re capable of containing the league’s most prolific rushing team. Mariota may get dangerous WR Kendall Wright back after he sat out Sunday’s win with a knee sprain, which would certainly aid the cause.”
Three teams remain unbeaten in the NFL through eight games as the Bengals, Patriots, and Panthers still haven’t lost a game yet this season. Although there are no winless clubs, the Lions are one win better through eight contests this season than they were in 2008, when Detroit put together an 0-16 season. Detroit travels to Green Bay in Week 10 looking to hand the Packers its third straight defeat, but more importantly trying to cover a number for the second time this season.
The Lions are one of two teams we’ll be focusing on as a team that the public will likely be “fading” or going against. The other club this week is Tennessee, who pulled off a nice upset of New Orleans last week and going for just its third victory of the season when it faces 8-0 Carolina. Our experts have provided sound reasoning to back these underdogs, as the 49ers were one of the teams in this weekly article to come through last week in their outright home ‘dog win over the Falcons.
Lions at Packers (-11½, 48)
Both these teams are desperate for a victory as the two NFC North rivals hook up at Lambeau Field. The Packers began the season at 6-0, but stumbled against the Broncos and the Panthers the last two weeks on the road. Green Bay allowed a season-high 37 points in an eight-point defeat at Carolina last Sunday, as Mike McCarthy’s team rallied from a 37-14 deficit in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie the game in the final minutes. However, Aaron Rodgers couldn’t complete the comeback as he bounced back from a 77-yard performance at Denver to thrown for a season-high 369 yards against Carolina.
The Lions are ready for this season to end, even though there are still eight games to play. Detroit’s horrible campaign carried over to London two weeks ago in a 45-10 defeat to Kansas City, the sixth time Jim Caldwell’s team has scored 20 points or less this season. The Lions head to their state of horrors, as Detroit has dropped 24 consecutive meetings to the Packers in Wisconsin since 1992. However, Detroit is listed as a double-digit underdog for the second time this season and covered in its only opportunity in a 13-10 setback at Seattle in Week 4.
So why back the Lions?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the Packers’ defense continues to be a weak spot in spite of their strong record, “Green Bay has allowed 548, 500, and 427 yards in the past three games despite being a double-digit favorite vs. a division rival this week. Before two late fourth quarter touchdowns with the team playing from way behind last week, the Packers had scored just four touchdowns in the previous 10 quarters as the offense has not matched the success of past seasons either. Green Bay currently checks in at 25th in the league in total offense despite scoring over 25 points per game, sitting just a few yards ahead of the Lions.”
Nelson notes the Lions have been a strong pointspread play as a double-digit underdog, “Since 2006, the Lions are on a 16-10-2 ATS run when getting 10 or more points though with just one outright upset in that span. Matthew Stafford has more passing yards than Rodgers this season and Calvin Johnson bests the numbers of any of Green Bay’s receivers by a wide margin while both teams have struggled to run the ball consistently. Seven of the last eight meetings between these teams have been decided by 13 or fewer points with Detroit winning 19-7 at home last season and losing 30-20 in the season finale at Lambeau Field with the division title on the line.”
Panthers (-5, 43½) at Titans
Carolina finished off a three-game homestand with a sweep of Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Green Bay to remain the lone undefeated team in the NFC. The Panthers won and covered for the second time in the underdog role this season, holding off the Packers last Sunday, 37-29 as two-point ‘dogs. Now, Ron Rivera’s team goes from home underdogs to road favorites, as the Panthers have won in both opportunities in this role at Jacksonville and Tampa Bay by double-digits.
Tennessee picked up its second victory of the season last Sunday, shocking New Orleans in overtime as seven-point road underdogs, 34-28. The Titans combined to score 36 points in the previous four losses, as Marcus Mariota turned in the performance of his short career by throwing for 371 yards and four touchdowns, including the game-winner to Anthony Fasano in overtime. Now, Tennessee returns home where it has not had much luck, losing all four games at Nissan Stadium, while three of those defeats have come by three points or less.
So why back the Titans?
Nelson says Tennessee’s numbers aren’t synonymous with its subpar record, “Even after playing the Saints last week, Tennessee checks in as the #6 total defense in the NFL despite being just 2-6, while Carolina ranks 13th in the league despite the perfect record. The Titans have allowed not even three more points per game than Carolina despite the contrasting results as well. In the five games in which Mariota played the entire way, the Titans have averaged 377 yards per game with the team averaging over 27 points per game. That scoring average would rank sixth best in the NFL at this point in the season, just over a point behind the Panthers who have averaged 28.5 points per game.”
Even though the Titans are looking for consecutive victories for the first time this season, NFL expert Antony Dinero feels like this is a great opportunity for Tennessee to break through the win column at home, “Mariota has his Titans teammates believing he can bring them immediate success, which is a powerful in a league where the difference between winning and losing often lies with what’s going on upstairs. After an upset of New Orleans, Tennessee is back home in a favorable situation given that the undefeated Panthers just mowed down the Colts and Packers at home, leaving them vulnerable to a road letdown. The Titans are 16th in the NFL in run defense, so they’re capable of containing the league’s most prolific rushing team. Mariota may get dangerous WR Kendall Wright back after he sat out Sunday’s win with a knee sprain, which would certainly aid the cause.”
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 10
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2, 43)
Cowboys’ clock-eating offense vs. Bucs’ terrible TOP
The Cowboys are counting down every second until star quarterback Tony Romo returns from injury, and they seem to be playing like it. Dallas has milked the clock with Romo out of action, topping the NFL in time of possession at 34:05 per game and running an average of just over 63 plays. Over the last three weeks, the Cowboys rushing game has found its legs behind oft-injured RB Darren McFadden, who has marched for 333 yards in that span after putting up only 129 total yards on the ground in the four games prior.
Dallas will try to hold on for one more week without Romo, who is expected to return in Week 11, and will look to dominate the football against Tampa Bay Sunday. The Buccaneers have been OK versus the run, allowing an average of 108.4 yards on the turf per contests and have been especially stout versus the rushing game in their last three outings – allowing an average of only 88.3 yards.
The big problem for Tampa Bay is hanging on to the football once they get it. And with the way the Cowboys hog the pigskin, and the way the Bucs give it back, this game could be completely controlled by Dallas. The Buccaneers have an average TOP of 28:22 on the season, which has dropped nearly two full minutes in the last two games. They had possession of the ball for just over 25 minutes in the loss to the Giants last weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 48)
Jaguars’ second-half slumps vs. Ravens’ late runs
These two teams have seen their fair share of close contests this season. Jacksonville has played in four games decided by five or less points – three of those by a field goal – and Baltimore has been in six games with a difference of five and under on the scoreboard. A lot those tight battles have to do with just how two-faced these teams have been through 60 minutes.
The Jaguars have watched the power sucked from their offense in the final two frames, averaging almost 13 points in the first half then plummeting to just 8.4 points in the second half – third lowest in the NFL. That includes just five fourth-quarter points per game. To compound this problem, Jacksonville’s defense has been trucked in the final 30 minutes, allowing opponents to score 15.2 points in the final two quarters. This has been an even bigger issues in recent weeks, allowing an average of 17.7 points in the second half over the past three games.
For the Ravens, it’s more been about slow starts and having to claw their way back. Baltimore has been a very strong second-half performer, following an average of only 9.1 points in the first half with a 14.2 scoring clip in the last two frames. That may be a little tougher with WR Steve Smith Sr. gone for the year, but the defense has also held up well in second halves – even more so in the past three outings. The Ravens stop unit has given up an average of only 10.3 points in the second half of their previous three games, compared to 15.3 points in the first half during that span.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-6, 41.5)
Chiefs’ sneaky-good secondary vs. Peyton Manning’s pick problems
A quick glance at the Chiefs defensive numbers on the season, and nothing really stands out about this unit. But shrinking that sample down to the past three games, and Kansas City’s defense is starting to gel like 90’s boy-band hair. It has given up an average of 208 yards passing the past three games (256 yards per game on the season), including limiting Detroit to only 195 yards through the air in Week 8. That improved play versus the pass has trimmed KC’s points against to 13 per game in that span – lowest in the AFC over that stretch.
Perhaps the biggest turnaround for this Chiefs defense, and one that could make a huge difference versus Denver in Week 10, is their interceptions. On the year, Kansas City has only eight total picks – with one of those coming against the Broncos in Week 2 – but over the past three games, the Chiefs have snagged six interceptions. Rookie corner Marcus Peters has three INTs and ran back one of those for six points – a 55-yard return for touchdown against none other than Peyton Manning.
Manning has fallen about as far as a superstar QB can, boasting a completion rate of 62.3 percent, a passer rating of 75.6, and a NFL-worst 13 interceptions heading into Week 10. Manning looked terrible in the loss to Indianapolis Sunday, making 21 of 36 throws for 281 yards, two touchdowns and two INTs. He’s thrown at least one pick in each game this season with a TD-to-INT count of 9-to-13. Kansas City is 0-8 SU against Denver with No. 18 under center and is getting a clean touchdown – sans PAT – Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45)
Cardinals’ can’t contain QBs vs. Russell Wilson’s crazy legs
The Cardinals try to claim the throne of the NFC West with a win at Seattle Sunday. Arizona, which leads the division at 6-2 over Seattle at 4-4, know this is a statement game not only in the division but the entire NFC. And if the Cards are going to replace the two-time conference champs atop the pecking order, they’ll need to do a much better job keeping Russell Wilson from breaking off big gains with his legs.
Wilson has gouged the Arizona defense with runs in past meetings, but it’s not just him doing damage on the ground. The Cardinals have had issues slowing dual-threat QBs in the past, giving up 134 totals yards rushing to quarterbacks this season – an average of almost five yards per scramble. Last year, QBs broke for 350 yards rushing versus Arizona – third most in the NFL – picking up an average of nearly six yards per scramble. So far in 2015, the defense hasn’t face many dual-threats, but allowed Colin Kaepernick to tack on 47 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 3 and gave up another 47 yards on five runs from Mike Vick in Week 6.
As mentioned, Wilson has run up and down the backs of the Cardinals defense in recent meetings. He marched for 88 yards and a touchdown in a 35-6 win over Arizona on Sunday Night Football in Week 16, following a 73-yard rushing day versus the Cardinals in 19-3 Seahawks victory in Week 12. This season, Wilson is the second-leading QB in terms of rushing yards, with 303 total gains on the ground and an average of 5.2 yards per carry which ranks eighth highest for all runners this season.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2, 43)
Cowboys’ clock-eating offense vs. Bucs’ terrible TOP
The Cowboys are counting down every second until star quarterback Tony Romo returns from injury, and they seem to be playing like it. Dallas has milked the clock with Romo out of action, topping the NFL in time of possession at 34:05 per game and running an average of just over 63 plays. Over the last three weeks, the Cowboys rushing game has found its legs behind oft-injured RB Darren McFadden, who has marched for 333 yards in that span after putting up only 129 total yards on the ground in the four games prior.
Dallas will try to hold on for one more week without Romo, who is expected to return in Week 11, and will look to dominate the football against Tampa Bay Sunday. The Buccaneers have been OK versus the run, allowing an average of 108.4 yards on the turf per contests and have been especially stout versus the rushing game in their last three outings – allowing an average of only 88.3 yards.
The big problem for Tampa Bay is hanging on to the football once they get it. And with the way the Cowboys hog the pigskin, and the way the Bucs give it back, this game could be completely controlled by Dallas. The Buccaneers have an average TOP of 28:22 on the season, which has dropped nearly two full minutes in the last two games. They had possession of the ball for just over 25 minutes in the loss to the Giants last weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 48)
Jaguars’ second-half slumps vs. Ravens’ late runs
These two teams have seen their fair share of close contests this season. Jacksonville has played in four games decided by five or less points – three of those by a field goal – and Baltimore has been in six games with a difference of five and under on the scoreboard. A lot those tight battles have to do with just how two-faced these teams have been through 60 minutes.
The Jaguars have watched the power sucked from their offense in the final two frames, averaging almost 13 points in the first half then plummeting to just 8.4 points in the second half – third lowest in the NFL. That includes just five fourth-quarter points per game. To compound this problem, Jacksonville’s defense has been trucked in the final 30 minutes, allowing opponents to score 15.2 points in the final two quarters. This has been an even bigger issues in recent weeks, allowing an average of 17.7 points in the second half over the past three games.
For the Ravens, it’s more been about slow starts and having to claw their way back. Baltimore has been a very strong second-half performer, following an average of only 9.1 points in the first half with a 14.2 scoring clip in the last two frames. That may be a little tougher with WR Steve Smith Sr. gone for the year, but the defense has also held up well in second halves – even more so in the past three outings. The Ravens stop unit has given up an average of only 10.3 points in the second half of their previous three games, compared to 15.3 points in the first half during that span.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-6, 41.5)
Chiefs’ sneaky-good secondary vs. Peyton Manning’s pick problems
A quick glance at the Chiefs defensive numbers on the season, and nothing really stands out about this unit. But shrinking that sample down to the past three games, and Kansas City’s defense is starting to gel like 90’s boy-band hair. It has given up an average of 208 yards passing the past three games (256 yards per game on the season), including limiting Detroit to only 195 yards through the air in Week 8. That improved play versus the pass has trimmed KC’s points against to 13 per game in that span – lowest in the AFC over that stretch.
Perhaps the biggest turnaround for this Chiefs defense, and one that could make a huge difference versus Denver in Week 10, is their interceptions. On the year, Kansas City has only eight total picks – with one of those coming against the Broncos in Week 2 – but over the past three games, the Chiefs have snagged six interceptions. Rookie corner Marcus Peters has three INTs and ran back one of those for six points – a 55-yard return for touchdown against none other than Peyton Manning.
Manning has fallen about as far as a superstar QB can, boasting a completion rate of 62.3 percent, a passer rating of 75.6, and a NFL-worst 13 interceptions heading into Week 10. Manning looked terrible in the loss to Indianapolis Sunday, making 21 of 36 throws for 281 yards, two touchdowns and two INTs. He’s thrown at least one pick in each game this season with a TD-to-INT count of 9-to-13. Kansas City is 0-8 SU against Denver with No. 18 under center and is getting a clean touchdown – sans PAT – Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45)
Cardinals’ can’t contain QBs vs. Russell Wilson’s crazy legs
The Cardinals try to claim the throne of the NFC West with a win at Seattle Sunday. Arizona, which leads the division at 6-2 over Seattle at 4-4, know this is a statement game not only in the division but the entire NFC. And if the Cards are going to replace the two-time conference champs atop the pecking order, they’ll need to do a much better job keeping Russell Wilson from breaking off big gains with his legs.
Wilson has gouged the Arizona defense with runs in past meetings, but it’s not just him doing damage on the ground. The Cardinals have had issues slowing dual-threat QBs in the past, giving up 134 totals yards rushing to quarterbacks this season – an average of almost five yards per scramble. Last year, QBs broke for 350 yards rushing versus Arizona – third most in the NFL – picking up an average of nearly six yards per scramble. So far in 2015, the defense hasn’t face many dual-threats, but allowed Colin Kaepernick to tack on 47 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 3 and gave up another 47 yards on five runs from Mike Vick in Week 6.
As mentioned, Wilson has run up and down the backs of the Cardinals defense in recent meetings. He marched for 88 yards and a touchdown in a 35-6 win over Arizona on Sunday Night Football in Week 16, following a 73-yard rushing day versus the Cardinals in 19-3 Seahawks victory in Week 12. This season, Wilson is the second-leading QB in terms of rushing yards, with 303 total gains on the ground and an average of 5.2 yards per carry which ranks eighth highest for all runners this season.
NFL Week 10
Lions (1-7) @ Packers (6-2) -- Lions lost last 24 games in Wisconsin; their last win here was in 1991; this is first game for Detroit since firing GM/Prez; they also fired OC/OL coaches before loss to Chiefs in London, so they're in disarray. Green Bay lost to Broncos/Panthers last two weeks, but they're 15-1 combined; Packers are 3-1 as home favorites, with wins by 10-10-14-7 points. Green Bay won 16 of last 19 games overall vs Detroit, but they were outsacked 8-0 the last two weeks. Detroit is 7-4 (8-3 vs spread) in last 11 post-bye games. Teams are 6-0 SU/ATS week after playing Carolina (were favored in four of six). Detroit is -11 in turnovers their last four games, all of which went over total; four of last five Packer games stayed under the total.
Cowboys (2-6) @ Buccaneers (3-5) -- Dallas is 0-6 since Romo got hurt; he may come back next week. Cassel played well enough to win vs Philly, but defense got gassed. Dallas has played two OT games- its offense didn't get on field in either OT. Pokes are 13-3 in last 16 games vs Tampa Bay, winning last five, three by 13+ points. Bucs are 1-3 at home, giving up 31+ points in all four games; they're +7 in turnovers in three wins, -6 in losses- they were outscored 56-25 in second half of last three games. Cowboys are 2-5 vs spread as an underdog, 1-2 on road. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 8-6, 5-4 at home. Teams are 5-2 vs spread week after playing Philly, 6-2 after playing the Giants. Four of last five Tampa Bay games went over total.
Panthers (8-0) @ Titans (2-6) -- Trap game for unbeaten Carolina after a pair of primetime wins; Panthers allowed 22+ points in five of last six games- they're 3-0 on road, scoring an average of 28 ppg. Tennessee scored 13 or less points in four of last five games; they're 0-4 at home, Titans won last three series games, by 13-20-27 points; this is Panthers' first visit here since '07. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 8-6, 3-2 on road; AFC South home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread. Five of last six Carolina games went over total, as have five of six Titan games that Mariota started. Carolina averaged 152 rushing ypg in last four games. Teams are 1-5 SU the week after playing Green Bay; the only win was by Seattle against the Clausen-led Bears- teams are 5-3 SU after playing the Saints.
Bears (3-5) @ Rams (4-4) -- Chicago won in San Diego late Monday night, they've won four of last five games vs St Louis, winning two of last three visits here. Bears covered all three road games that Cutler played- their last five games were all decided by three or less points. Rams allowed two offensive TDs in four home games, winning three of them; they signed Welker this week to bolster offense that is just 18 of 90 (20%) on third down in last seven games. Teams are 5-1 vs spread the week after playing San Diego (all as dogs); favorites are 2-1 week after playing Minnesota. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs 4-3. Six of last seven Ram games, four of last six Chicago games stayed under total.
Saints (4-5) @ Redskins (3-5) -- New Orleans lost 27-22/39-17 in only two outdoor games this season, lost 31-19 at Arizona in only other grass game; they allowed 83 points in last two games, could be tired- its bye is next week. Washington won its last three home games, scoring 26 ppg, but they struggle running ball-- in last four games, Skins ran ball 75 times for 172 yards. Redskins won three of last four games against the Saints, last five series tilts were decided by 8 or less points. Seven of last eight series totals were 44+. Saints defense is having trouble getting off field; in last three games, opponents are 23-42 on 3rd down. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Four of last five Saint games went over the total.
Dolphins (3-5) @ Eagles (4-4) -- Third week in row on road for Miami squad that allowed 266 rushing yards last week in Buffalo; they're going to get more of same from Philly team that ran ball for 172.5 ypg in its last four games. Dolphins are just 7-29 on third down last three games; they were outscored 38-7 in first half last two weeks, after leading 41-0 at half vs Houston in Week 7. Eagles won last three series games, by 7-10-16 points; this is first visit here for Fish since '07. NFC non-divisional favorites are 2-4 vs spread, 1-3 at home; AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 3-1. Miami's last four losses are all by 13+ points. Teams are 1-4 vs spread week after playing Buffalo. Five of last seven Miami games went over total; six of eight Philly games stayed under.
Browns (2-7) @ Steelers (5-4) -- Backup QB Jones gets start here for Pitt, which won eight of last ten vs Browns, who lost last ten visits here- six of their last seven visits here were losses by 10+ points. Jones has averaged 9.7 ypa in 47 passes, winning home games with Cards/Raiders in relief- he lost only start, vs Bengals. McCown is expected to return here for Browns, who lost four games in row, last three by 14+ each- they're 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 21-3-18-21, with win at Baltimore. Pitt is 4-0 if it scores 24+, 1-4 if it doesn't; they're 3-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home faves. Steelers ran ball for 153.5 ypg in last six games. Over is 7-2 in Cleveland games, 1-6 in last seven Steeler games. Favorites are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Oakland.
Jaguars (2-6) @ Ravens (2-6) -- Baltimore won/covered 11 of last 13 post-bye games (8-1 last nine as favorite); Ravens won eight of last ten series games; Jax lost last six visits here, with only one of six by more than eight points. Jags lost five of last six games; only one of their last four losses was by more than 7 points- they're 3-2 as dogs away from home, but also allowed 28+ points in last four games. Ravens are 0-3 as home favorites; all four games were decided by 4 or less points- they're 0-6 vs spread in last six home games. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread, 3-3 at home; AFC South road dogs are 3-5. Over is 6-1 in last seven Jax games, 5-2 in last seven Raven games. NFL-wide, teams are 13-5 vs spread coming off a bye this season, 6-1 when favored.
Vikings (6-2) @ Raiders (4-4) -- Minnesota won six of its last seven games (7-0 vs spread); they're 2-2 SU on road, 2-0 as an underdog. Bridgewater is expected to play after getting KO'd from LW's game. Oakland is 4-4 this year despite being favored only once (0-1); they scored 37-34-35 points in three post-bye games, losing on last play in Pittsburgh last week. Raiders are 10-4 in series, winning three of last four here; this is first trip here for Vikings since '03. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-8 vs spread, 4-5 at home. NFC North road underdogs are 4-3 vs spread. Teams are 5-3 vs spread week after playing the Steelers; dogs are 1-4 week after playing Rams. Four of last six Viking games, six of eight Oakland games went over the total.
Chiefs (3-5) @ Broncos (7-1) -- Denver stunned Chiefs 31-24 (+3) at Arrowhead in Week 2, scoring two TDs in last 0:36, winning on fumble return TD with 0:27 left. Chiefs lost last three visits here by 35-10-7 points, are 0-7 in last seven series games, but Reid is 14-2 in post-bye games, 4-1 as an underdog. Broncos don't have a takeaway (-3) in last two games; they had 17 (+6) in first six games; they lost first game LW, are 1-1 as home favorites, with home wins this year by 6-3-19 points. Chiefs ran ball for 344 yards in winning last couple pre-bye games after a 1-5 start; they're 1-3 as road dogs, losing last three away games by 10-15-6 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 10-17-1 vs spread. Favorites are 0-2-2 against the spread week after playing Indy.
Patriots (8-0) @ Giants (5-4) -- Brees threw for seven TDs against Giants, what will Brady do? Not often NE has revenge motive, but they've lost three in row to Giants- two of three were Super Bowls. Patriots scored 34.7 ppg in winning their three road games (1-1 as road favorite); they're 5-1-2 vs spread overall this year. Giants won five of last seven overall, won last three at home while scoring 29.7 ppg- they're 2-1-1 as underdogs. Return of DE Pierre-Paul LW helped Giant defense; they held Bucs to 6.9 ypa, after giving up 8.1/10.2 in previous two games. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Teams are 0-5 week after playing Tampa Bay, with three losses by 11+, 3-4 after playing the Redskins (2-1-1 as a dog). Four of last five Patriot games went over total.
Cardinals (6-2) @ Seahawks (4-4) -- Seattle won four of last five series games; all four wins were by 12+ points; Cardinals scored total of 26 points in last three series games, are 1-4 in last five visits here. Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both its losses, +9 in its wins; they are 3-1 on road, scoring 34+ points in the wins- they scored 26+ points in all six wins. Seattle is 2-1 at home; they allowed 27+ points in all four losses, 12 or less in four wins. Redbirds lost seven of last nine post-bye games; they're 1-5-1 as post-bye underdog. Seattle covered four of last five post-bye games. Seahawks are 2-4 as a favorite this year; Arizona is a dog for first time this season- they're 8-4 as road dogs under Arians. Six of eight Arizona games went over total; five of last seven Seattle games stayed under.
Texans (3-5) @ Bengals (8-0) -- Unbeaten Bengals are 7-0-1 vs spread this season, 3-0-1 at home; four of eight wins are by 6 or less points. Texans still have shot at the playoffs with Indy QB Luck hurt; they're 1-3 as road underdogs, losing by 7-27-18 on foreign soil, with only win at Jax'ville. Houston allowed 24+ points in all five losses; two of their three wins are vs rookie QBs. Texans won five of last six series games, winning 28-17/20-19 last two played here- last visit was in '11. Texans won three of last four post-bye games; they're 3-5 as a post-bye underdog. Teams are 2-4 the week after playing Cleveland. Bengals played on Thursday last week, so this was semi-bye for them, too. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 6-5, 3-3 at home.
Lions (1-7) @ Packers (6-2) -- Lions lost last 24 games in Wisconsin; their last win here was in 1991; this is first game for Detroit since firing GM/Prez; they also fired OC/OL coaches before loss to Chiefs in London, so they're in disarray. Green Bay lost to Broncos/Panthers last two weeks, but they're 15-1 combined; Packers are 3-1 as home favorites, with wins by 10-10-14-7 points. Green Bay won 16 of last 19 games overall vs Detroit, but they were outsacked 8-0 the last two weeks. Detroit is 7-4 (8-3 vs spread) in last 11 post-bye games. Teams are 6-0 SU/ATS week after playing Carolina (were favored in four of six). Detroit is -11 in turnovers their last four games, all of which went over total; four of last five Packer games stayed under the total.
Cowboys (2-6) @ Buccaneers (3-5) -- Dallas is 0-6 since Romo got hurt; he may come back next week. Cassel played well enough to win vs Philly, but defense got gassed. Dallas has played two OT games- its offense didn't get on field in either OT. Pokes are 13-3 in last 16 games vs Tampa Bay, winning last five, three by 13+ points. Bucs are 1-3 at home, giving up 31+ points in all four games; they're +7 in turnovers in three wins, -6 in losses- they were outscored 56-25 in second half of last three games. Cowboys are 2-5 vs spread as an underdog, 1-2 on road. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 8-6, 5-4 at home. Teams are 5-2 vs spread week after playing Philly, 6-2 after playing the Giants. Four of last five Tampa Bay games went over total.
Panthers (8-0) @ Titans (2-6) -- Trap game for unbeaten Carolina after a pair of primetime wins; Panthers allowed 22+ points in five of last six games- they're 3-0 on road, scoring an average of 28 ppg. Tennessee scored 13 or less points in four of last five games; they're 0-4 at home, Titans won last three series games, by 13-20-27 points; this is Panthers' first visit here since '07. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 8-6, 3-2 on road; AFC South home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread. Five of last six Carolina games went over total, as have five of six Titan games that Mariota started. Carolina averaged 152 rushing ypg in last four games. Teams are 1-5 SU the week after playing Green Bay; the only win was by Seattle against the Clausen-led Bears- teams are 5-3 SU after playing the Saints.
Bears (3-5) @ Rams (4-4) -- Chicago won in San Diego late Monday night, they've won four of last five games vs St Louis, winning two of last three visits here. Bears covered all three road games that Cutler played- their last five games were all decided by three or less points. Rams allowed two offensive TDs in four home games, winning three of them; they signed Welker this week to bolster offense that is just 18 of 90 (20%) on third down in last seven games. Teams are 5-1 vs spread the week after playing San Diego (all as dogs); favorites are 2-1 week after playing Minnesota. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs 4-3. Six of last seven Ram games, four of last six Chicago games stayed under total.
Saints (4-5) @ Redskins (3-5) -- New Orleans lost 27-22/39-17 in only two outdoor games this season, lost 31-19 at Arizona in only other grass game; they allowed 83 points in last two games, could be tired- its bye is next week. Washington won its last three home games, scoring 26 ppg, but they struggle running ball-- in last four games, Skins ran ball 75 times for 172 yards. Redskins won three of last four games against the Saints, last five series tilts were decided by 8 or less points. Seven of last eight series totals were 44+. Saints defense is having trouble getting off field; in last three games, opponents are 23-42 on 3rd down. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Four of last five Saint games went over the total.
Dolphins (3-5) @ Eagles (4-4) -- Third week in row on road for Miami squad that allowed 266 rushing yards last week in Buffalo; they're going to get more of same from Philly team that ran ball for 172.5 ypg in its last four games. Dolphins are just 7-29 on third down last three games; they were outscored 38-7 in first half last two weeks, after leading 41-0 at half vs Houston in Week 7. Eagles won last three series games, by 7-10-16 points; this is first visit here for Fish since '07. NFC non-divisional favorites are 2-4 vs spread, 1-3 at home; AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 3-1. Miami's last four losses are all by 13+ points. Teams are 1-4 vs spread week after playing Buffalo. Five of last seven Miami games went over total; six of eight Philly games stayed under.
Browns (2-7) @ Steelers (5-4) -- Backup QB Jones gets start here for Pitt, which won eight of last ten vs Browns, who lost last ten visits here- six of their last seven visits here were losses by 10+ points. Jones has averaged 9.7 ypa in 47 passes, winning home games with Cards/Raiders in relief- he lost only start, vs Bengals. McCown is expected to return here for Browns, who lost four games in row, last three by 14+ each- they're 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 21-3-18-21, with win at Baltimore. Pitt is 4-0 if it scores 24+, 1-4 if it doesn't; they're 3-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home faves. Steelers ran ball for 153.5 ypg in last six games. Over is 7-2 in Cleveland games, 1-6 in last seven Steeler games. Favorites are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Oakland.
Jaguars (2-6) @ Ravens (2-6) -- Baltimore won/covered 11 of last 13 post-bye games (8-1 last nine as favorite); Ravens won eight of last ten series games; Jax lost last six visits here, with only one of six by more than eight points. Jags lost five of last six games; only one of their last four losses was by more than 7 points- they're 3-2 as dogs away from home, but also allowed 28+ points in last four games. Ravens are 0-3 as home favorites; all four games were decided by 4 or less points- they're 0-6 vs spread in last six home games. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread, 3-3 at home; AFC South road dogs are 3-5. Over is 6-1 in last seven Jax games, 5-2 in last seven Raven games. NFL-wide, teams are 13-5 vs spread coming off a bye this season, 6-1 when favored.
Vikings (6-2) @ Raiders (4-4) -- Minnesota won six of its last seven games (7-0 vs spread); they're 2-2 SU on road, 2-0 as an underdog. Bridgewater is expected to play after getting KO'd from LW's game. Oakland is 4-4 this year despite being favored only once (0-1); they scored 37-34-35 points in three post-bye games, losing on last play in Pittsburgh last week. Raiders are 10-4 in series, winning three of last four here; this is first trip here for Vikings since '03. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-8 vs spread, 4-5 at home. NFC North road underdogs are 4-3 vs spread. Teams are 5-3 vs spread week after playing the Steelers; dogs are 1-4 week after playing Rams. Four of last six Viking games, six of eight Oakland games went over the total.
Chiefs (3-5) @ Broncos (7-1) -- Denver stunned Chiefs 31-24 (+3) at Arrowhead in Week 2, scoring two TDs in last 0:36, winning on fumble return TD with 0:27 left. Chiefs lost last three visits here by 35-10-7 points, are 0-7 in last seven series games, but Reid is 14-2 in post-bye games, 4-1 as an underdog. Broncos don't have a takeaway (-3) in last two games; they had 17 (+6) in first six games; they lost first game LW, are 1-1 as home favorites, with home wins this year by 6-3-19 points. Chiefs ran ball for 344 yards in winning last couple pre-bye games after a 1-5 start; they're 1-3 as road dogs, losing last three away games by 10-15-6 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 10-17-1 vs spread. Favorites are 0-2-2 against the spread week after playing Indy.
Patriots (8-0) @ Giants (5-4) -- Brees threw for seven TDs against Giants, what will Brady do? Not often NE has revenge motive, but they've lost three in row to Giants- two of three were Super Bowls. Patriots scored 34.7 ppg in winning their three road games (1-1 as road favorite); they're 5-1-2 vs spread overall this year. Giants won five of last seven overall, won last three at home while scoring 29.7 ppg- they're 2-1-1 as underdogs. Return of DE Pierre-Paul LW helped Giant defense; they held Bucs to 6.9 ypa, after giving up 8.1/10.2 in previous two games. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Teams are 0-5 week after playing Tampa Bay, with three losses by 11+, 3-4 after playing the Redskins (2-1-1 as a dog). Four of last five Patriot games went over total.
Cardinals (6-2) @ Seahawks (4-4) -- Seattle won four of last five series games; all four wins were by 12+ points; Cardinals scored total of 26 points in last three series games, are 1-4 in last five visits here. Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both its losses, +9 in its wins; they are 3-1 on road, scoring 34+ points in the wins- they scored 26+ points in all six wins. Seattle is 2-1 at home; they allowed 27+ points in all four losses, 12 or less in four wins. Redbirds lost seven of last nine post-bye games; they're 1-5-1 as post-bye underdog. Seattle covered four of last five post-bye games. Seahawks are 2-4 as a favorite this year; Arizona is a dog for first time this season- they're 8-4 as road dogs under Arians. Six of eight Arizona games went over total; five of last seven Seattle games stayed under.
Texans (3-5) @ Bengals (8-0) -- Unbeaten Bengals are 7-0-1 vs spread this season, 3-0-1 at home; four of eight wins are by 6 or less points. Texans still have shot at the playoffs with Indy QB Luck hurt; they're 1-3 as road underdogs, losing by 7-27-18 on foreign soil, with only win at Jax'ville. Houston allowed 24+ points in all five losses; two of their three wins are vs rookie QBs. Texans won five of last six series games, winning 28-17/20-19 last two played here- last visit was in '11. Texans won three of last four post-bye games; they're 3-5 as a post-bye underdog. Teams are 2-4 the week after playing Cleveland. Bengals played on Thursday last week, so this was semi-bye for them, too. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 6-5, 3-3 at home.
Mike O'Connor
Chicago (+7) 17 ST. LOUIS 23
The Bears pulled out a clutch win on Monday night in San Diego but are on the road again after a short week to play the Rams in St Louis. Chicago has improved this season with a solid group of coaches putting their players in positon to make plays but face a Rams team that is just off a loss and will be primed to play well in this game. From a match-up perspective, the Rams should win the battle in the trenches as they have significant advantages in the run game. St. Louis will run the ball well with Todd Gurley (664 yards rushing at 5.6 ypr) against a Chicago run defense that is allowing an average of 122 yards at 4.8 ypr while the Bears rush offense likely won’t be able to generate much against a Rams defense allowing 4.0 ypr against teams that gain 4.4 ypr. Both passing offenses are below average and facing pass defenses that are better than average so I don’t think that either team will have a lot of success in the air.
I don’t have any situations that apply and my model favors the Rams by 6.1 points. While I don’t have a major opinion either way, I’ll lean slightly with the Bears plus the points.
Detroit (+11.5) 24 GREEN BAY 30
The Lions are coming off of their bye week after getting blown out against the Chiefs in London and after major shake-ups to their coaching staff and front office. They are a team that appears to be in free fall mode with a 1-7 record but if we are going to get another really good effort from the Lions anytime soon, this is likely the spot for it. With extra time to prepare and facing division rival Green Bay, who have also struggled recently, the Lions may be catching the Packers at just the right time.
This is a lot of points to give a team with the talent that Detroit has on offense as they face a Green Bay defense that has not played well recently and is struggling with injuries in their secondary. With the extra time to re-adjust their offense to put those players into the best position to be successful, I expect the Lions offense to play well in this game. The Packers pass defense has been abysmal recently, allowing an average of 375 passing yards at 9.1 yps the past three games and face a Detroit passing offense that can strike quickly (if given the opportunity) with a capable quarterback in Matthew Stafford, two very good receivers in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, and an emerging threat at tight end in Eric Ebron. Meanwhile, the Packers offense has struggled recently against two very good defenses on the road and while the quality of this Detroit defense is nowhere near as good, I expect that they’ll do just enough to keep this one close.
The Lions qualify in a 43-21 bounce-back situation and my math model only favors the Packers by 8.7 points. I like the Lions plus the large number.
Dallas (+2) 21 TAMPA BAY 22
The Cowboys have now lost six straight without Tony Romo and need this game desperately if they have any hope of the postseason this year. They’ll lean on their strong running game that averages 130 rushing yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 107 yards at 4.2 ypr to try and grind out a victory in this game but the Bucs defend the run well – allowing 3.9 ypr against teams that gain 4.0 ypr. Matt Cassel played better last week but the Cowboys passing game is well below average without Romo and will have a hard time moving the ball consistently against a Tampa defense that has improved.
On the other side the Bucs offense has also played well recently and Jameis Winston has not thrown an interception in the past four games. The Bucs run the ball well and should have success against a Dallas defense that has not been good at stopping the run, and are a bit banged up. My model favors Tampa by 2.5 points but the Bucs qualify in a negative 57-122-4 situation that plays against them. Slight lean to the Cowboys.
New Orleans (-1) 29 WASHINGTON 23
This should be a high scoring game as neither team can play defense and both offenses have the ability to score points. Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense should be able to move the ball well, particularly in the passing game with an offense that is generating 323 passing yards at 7.3 yps against teams that allow 250 passing yards at 6.5 yps. They’ll face a Redskins defense that is below average defending the pass in allowing 7.0 yps against teams that average 6.6 yps. The problem for the Redskins is that they can’t stop the run either, allowing an average of 133 yards at 5.0 ypr, and the New Orleans offensive line is healthy and starting to gel, creating room for Mark Ingram and company.
Washington should be able to move the ball as well with the incorporation of DeSean Jackson into their offense to help spread the field and have the benefit of facing the worst defense in the league right now. The Saints defense is terrible and can’t stop the run or the pass – allowing an average of 415 total yards per game at 6.5 yppl to teams that generate 366 yards at 5.7 yppl and will give up big plays and points in this game as well.
I don’t have any situations in play but my model favors the Saints by 6.2 points so I lean their way.
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) 28 Cleveland 20
While Big Ben practiced on Friday it’s not clear who will get that start for the Steelers but with their bye week after this game it would make sense for Pittsburgh to err on the side of caution and go with Landry Jones. I’m assuming that will be the case and even with Jones, the Steelers should move the ball well in this game as he has one of the best supporting casts of skill position players in the league and will face a Browns defense that has been horrible this season.
The big match-up is the Steelers excellent ground game (averaging 135 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr against defenses that allow 103 rushing yards at 4.3 ypr) pounding the ball against the worst rush defense in the league – Cleveland allows 149 rushing yards at 4.9 ypr per game. So, Pittsburgh should move the ball with ease, especially considering the fact that the Browns pass defense has also been terrible and is really banged up right now with cornerback Joe Haden and safety Donte Whitner out and safeties Tashaun Gipson, Jordan Poyer, and Ibraheim Campbell all questionable.
It looks like Josh McCown will get the start for Cleveland so they have a chance at keeping it close against a Steelers pass defense that was shredded last week by the Raiders and have given up an average of 273 passing yards at 6.7 yps so far this season. There are situations going both ways and assuming Jones and McCown start, I get Pittsburgh by -7.4 points. Slight lean to the Steelers.
New England (-7) 33 NY GIANTS 24
The Giants have alternated a win with a loss the past five games and I expect that trend will continue this week after the Giants beat Tampa Bay last week. New England looks like a machine and the level that Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is operating at is incredible. The Patriots passing offense is averaging 325 yards at 7.5 yps against teams that allow 255 yards at 6.6 yps and will be facing a Giants pass defense that is rated #31. This is a terrible match-up for the Giants in that respect and I just don’t see how the New York defense is going to slow down the Patriots offense. The Giants will have to score points of their own via the pass but the Patriots pass defense is very good, allowing 5.7 yps to teams that gain 6.4 yps. My model favors the Pats by 15.4 points but New England qualifies in a couple of negative situations that are 341-418-21 and 3-19. Slight lean to the Pats.
Kansas City (+5.5) 17 DENVER 21
The Broncos were in a let-down spot last week after beating the previously undefeated Packers the week before and as a result, they didn’t have their best stuff and ended up losing to the Colts. Facing division rival Kansas City at home they should be refocused but they’ll be facing a Chiefs team that should have beaten them earlier in the season who will come in with revenge on their minds. In addition, sitting at 3-5 the Chiefs have no more room for error if they hope to make the postseason and will be focused and prepared after having the bye week to heal up and get ready for this game.
The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles earlier this season but backup Chandarick West has picked up the slack as the offensive line began playing much better. Facing a Denver rush defense that is really good (allowing just 3.6 ypr to teams that gain 4.3 ypr), the Chiefs will have their work cut out for them. The same can be said for the Broncos offense, as it has been well below average this season and should have a hard time moving the ball against a talented Chiefs defense that can get after the passer.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model favors the Broncos by just 4.2 points so it’s a weak lean to the Chiefs plus the points.
Arizona (+3) 21 SEATTLE 19
While the Seahawks have the reputation after being in two consecutive Super Bowls, the Cardinals have been the better team this season. By my metrics, the Cardinals have the best offense in the NFL to go along with a defense that is also well above average. Arizona is good in all key areas - rushing the ball (averaging 127 yards at 4.9 ypr), passing the ball (293 yards at 8.6 yps), defending the run (allowing 90 yards at 3.9 ypr) and defending the pass (223 yards at 5.8 dyps). They’ll face a Seattle team that hasn’t been quite the same this season on offense with an offensive line that has been one of the worst in the league so far, allowing nearly 4 sacks per game and limiting Marshawn Lynch to just 375 yards at 3.6 ypr. Under lots of duress, Russell Wilson hasn’t been as effective this season either, averaging just 213 passing yards at 6.4 yps against teams that allow 244 yards at 6.4 yps with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. While they have tweaked some things I’m sure during the bye week, I still expect that Wilson and the Seattle offense, which is just about average this season, will have some trouble moving the ball consistently against the Cardinals above average defense.
Because the Seattle defense is also very good I expect a low scoring game but I trust a good Cardinals offense that has had two weeks coming off the bye to be able to scheme up a good game plan and play well here. Bruce Arians is an excellent coach and is in a good spot as his teams are 16-2 ATS as a short dog of 7 or less. Arizona also qualifies in a 15-3 ATS turnover based situation that plays on certain teams that have a negative fumble differential relative to their opponent. In addition, Arizona benefits from a negative 50-78-1 scheduling situation that plays against the Seahawks. However, Seattle has been very difficult to beat in home divisional games under Carroll (12-3 ATS) and are a fully healthy team. I’ll side with the points with the better team in what should be a low scoring game.
CINCINNATI (-10.5) 33 Houston 15
This isn’t a great spot for the Bengals as they come off of a divisional win against the Browns last Thursday night in prime-time and next week square off in another high profile prime-time game in Arizona against the Cardinals on Sunday night. On the other side, the Texans are coming off of their bye and still right in the hunt in the bad AFC South, just a half game behind the Colts.
The Bengals one weakness this season so far has been their inability to stop the run as they are allowing 4.9 ypr against teams that gain 4.5 ypr on average. Houston has been terrible on the ground (averaging 88 rushing yards at 3.4 ypr against teams that allow 109 rushing yards at 4.1 ypr) but they may have an opportunity to get something going in this match-up. Otherwise, they’ll have a hard time moving the ball with a below average pass offense that is generating an average of 5.8 yps against teams that allow 6.5 yps facing a Cincinnati defense that is very good defending the pass (allowing 5.9 yps against teams that gain 6.5 yps on average). On the other side, a very good Bengals offense (averaging 393 total yards at 6.3 yppl against teams that allow 368 yards at 5.8 yppl) should move the ball well against an average Houston defense.
I don't have any situations that apply to this game and my model favors the Bengals by 17.9 points. I lean with Cincinnati minus the points.
Chicago (+7) 17 ST. LOUIS 23
The Bears pulled out a clutch win on Monday night in San Diego but are on the road again after a short week to play the Rams in St Louis. Chicago has improved this season with a solid group of coaches putting their players in positon to make plays but face a Rams team that is just off a loss and will be primed to play well in this game. From a match-up perspective, the Rams should win the battle in the trenches as they have significant advantages in the run game. St. Louis will run the ball well with Todd Gurley (664 yards rushing at 5.6 ypr) against a Chicago run defense that is allowing an average of 122 yards at 4.8 ypr while the Bears rush offense likely won’t be able to generate much against a Rams defense allowing 4.0 ypr against teams that gain 4.4 ypr. Both passing offenses are below average and facing pass defenses that are better than average so I don’t think that either team will have a lot of success in the air.
I don’t have any situations that apply and my model favors the Rams by 6.1 points. While I don’t have a major opinion either way, I’ll lean slightly with the Bears plus the points.
Detroit (+11.5) 24 GREEN BAY 30
The Lions are coming off of their bye week after getting blown out against the Chiefs in London and after major shake-ups to their coaching staff and front office. They are a team that appears to be in free fall mode with a 1-7 record but if we are going to get another really good effort from the Lions anytime soon, this is likely the spot for it. With extra time to prepare and facing division rival Green Bay, who have also struggled recently, the Lions may be catching the Packers at just the right time.
This is a lot of points to give a team with the talent that Detroit has on offense as they face a Green Bay defense that has not played well recently and is struggling with injuries in their secondary. With the extra time to re-adjust their offense to put those players into the best position to be successful, I expect the Lions offense to play well in this game. The Packers pass defense has been abysmal recently, allowing an average of 375 passing yards at 9.1 yps the past three games and face a Detroit passing offense that can strike quickly (if given the opportunity) with a capable quarterback in Matthew Stafford, two very good receivers in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, and an emerging threat at tight end in Eric Ebron. Meanwhile, the Packers offense has struggled recently against two very good defenses on the road and while the quality of this Detroit defense is nowhere near as good, I expect that they’ll do just enough to keep this one close.
The Lions qualify in a 43-21 bounce-back situation and my math model only favors the Packers by 8.7 points. I like the Lions plus the large number.
Dallas (+2) 21 TAMPA BAY 22
The Cowboys have now lost six straight without Tony Romo and need this game desperately if they have any hope of the postseason this year. They’ll lean on their strong running game that averages 130 rushing yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 107 yards at 4.2 ypr to try and grind out a victory in this game but the Bucs defend the run well – allowing 3.9 ypr against teams that gain 4.0 ypr. Matt Cassel played better last week but the Cowboys passing game is well below average without Romo and will have a hard time moving the ball consistently against a Tampa defense that has improved.
On the other side the Bucs offense has also played well recently and Jameis Winston has not thrown an interception in the past four games. The Bucs run the ball well and should have success against a Dallas defense that has not been good at stopping the run, and are a bit banged up. My model favors Tampa by 2.5 points but the Bucs qualify in a negative 57-122-4 situation that plays against them. Slight lean to the Cowboys.
New Orleans (-1) 29 WASHINGTON 23
This should be a high scoring game as neither team can play defense and both offenses have the ability to score points. Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense should be able to move the ball well, particularly in the passing game with an offense that is generating 323 passing yards at 7.3 yps against teams that allow 250 passing yards at 6.5 yps. They’ll face a Redskins defense that is below average defending the pass in allowing 7.0 yps against teams that average 6.6 yps. The problem for the Redskins is that they can’t stop the run either, allowing an average of 133 yards at 5.0 ypr, and the New Orleans offensive line is healthy and starting to gel, creating room for Mark Ingram and company.
Washington should be able to move the ball as well with the incorporation of DeSean Jackson into their offense to help spread the field and have the benefit of facing the worst defense in the league right now. The Saints defense is terrible and can’t stop the run or the pass – allowing an average of 415 total yards per game at 6.5 yppl to teams that generate 366 yards at 5.7 yppl and will give up big plays and points in this game as well.
I don’t have any situations in play but my model favors the Saints by 6.2 points so I lean their way.
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) 28 Cleveland 20
While Big Ben practiced on Friday it’s not clear who will get that start for the Steelers but with their bye week after this game it would make sense for Pittsburgh to err on the side of caution and go with Landry Jones. I’m assuming that will be the case and even with Jones, the Steelers should move the ball well in this game as he has one of the best supporting casts of skill position players in the league and will face a Browns defense that has been horrible this season.
The big match-up is the Steelers excellent ground game (averaging 135 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr against defenses that allow 103 rushing yards at 4.3 ypr) pounding the ball against the worst rush defense in the league – Cleveland allows 149 rushing yards at 4.9 ypr per game. So, Pittsburgh should move the ball with ease, especially considering the fact that the Browns pass defense has also been terrible and is really banged up right now with cornerback Joe Haden and safety Donte Whitner out and safeties Tashaun Gipson, Jordan Poyer, and Ibraheim Campbell all questionable.
It looks like Josh McCown will get the start for Cleveland so they have a chance at keeping it close against a Steelers pass defense that was shredded last week by the Raiders and have given up an average of 273 passing yards at 6.7 yps so far this season. There are situations going both ways and assuming Jones and McCown start, I get Pittsburgh by -7.4 points. Slight lean to the Steelers.
New England (-7) 33 NY GIANTS 24
The Giants have alternated a win with a loss the past five games and I expect that trend will continue this week after the Giants beat Tampa Bay last week. New England looks like a machine and the level that Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is operating at is incredible. The Patriots passing offense is averaging 325 yards at 7.5 yps against teams that allow 255 yards at 6.6 yps and will be facing a Giants pass defense that is rated #31. This is a terrible match-up for the Giants in that respect and I just don’t see how the New York defense is going to slow down the Patriots offense. The Giants will have to score points of their own via the pass but the Patriots pass defense is very good, allowing 5.7 yps to teams that gain 6.4 yps. My model favors the Pats by 15.4 points but New England qualifies in a couple of negative situations that are 341-418-21 and 3-19. Slight lean to the Pats.
Kansas City (+5.5) 17 DENVER 21
The Broncos were in a let-down spot last week after beating the previously undefeated Packers the week before and as a result, they didn’t have their best stuff and ended up losing to the Colts. Facing division rival Kansas City at home they should be refocused but they’ll be facing a Chiefs team that should have beaten them earlier in the season who will come in with revenge on their minds. In addition, sitting at 3-5 the Chiefs have no more room for error if they hope to make the postseason and will be focused and prepared after having the bye week to heal up and get ready for this game.
The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles earlier this season but backup Chandarick West has picked up the slack as the offensive line began playing much better. Facing a Denver rush defense that is really good (allowing just 3.6 ypr to teams that gain 4.3 ypr), the Chiefs will have their work cut out for them. The same can be said for the Broncos offense, as it has been well below average this season and should have a hard time moving the ball against a talented Chiefs defense that can get after the passer.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model favors the Broncos by just 4.2 points so it’s a weak lean to the Chiefs plus the points.
Arizona (+3) 21 SEATTLE 19
While the Seahawks have the reputation after being in two consecutive Super Bowls, the Cardinals have been the better team this season. By my metrics, the Cardinals have the best offense in the NFL to go along with a defense that is also well above average. Arizona is good in all key areas - rushing the ball (averaging 127 yards at 4.9 ypr), passing the ball (293 yards at 8.6 yps), defending the run (allowing 90 yards at 3.9 ypr) and defending the pass (223 yards at 5.8 dyps). They’ll face a Seattle team that hasn’t been quite the same this season on offense with an offensive line that has been one of the worst in the league so far, allowing nearly 4 sacks per game and limiting Marshawn Lynch to just 375 yards at 3.6 ypr. Under lots of duress, Russell Wilson hasn’t been as effective this season either, averaging just 213 passing yards at 6.4 yps against teams that allow 244 yards at 6.4 yps with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. While they have tweaked some things I’m sure during the bye week, I still expect that Wilson and the Seattle offense, which is just about average this season, will have some trouble moving the ball consistently against the Cardinals above average defense.
Because the Seattle defense is also very good I expect a low scoring game but I trust a good Cardinals offense that has had two weeks coming off the bye to be able to scheme up a good game plan and play well here. Bruce Arians is an excellent coach and is in a good spot as his teams are 16-2 ATS as a short dog of 7 or less. Arizona also qualifies in a 15-3 ATS turnover based situation that plays on certain teams that have a negative fumble differential relative to their opponent. In addition, Arizona benefits from a negative 50-78-1 scheduling situation that plays against the Seahawks. However, Seattle has been very difficult to beat in home divisional games under Carroll (12-3 ATS) and are a fully healthy team. I’ll side with the points with the better team in what should be a low scoring game.
CINCINNATI (-10.5) 33 Houston 15
This isn’t a great spot for the Bengals as they come off of a divisional win against the Browns last Thursday night in prime-time and next week square off in another high profile prime-time game in Arizona against the Cardinals on Sunday night. On the other side, the Texans are coming off of their bye and still right in the hunt in the bad AFC South, just a half game behind the Colts.
The Bengals one weakness this season so far has been their inability to stop the run as they are allowing 4.9 ypr against teams that gain 4.5 ypr on average. Houston has been terrible on the ground (averaging 88 rushing yards at 3.4 ypr against teams that allow 109 rushing yards at 4.1 ypr) but they may have an opportunity to get something going in this match-up. Otherwise, they’ll have a hard time moving the ball with a below average pass offense that is generating an average of 5.8 yps against teams that allow 6.5 yps facing a Cincinnati defense that is very good defending the pass (allowing 5.9 yps against teams that gain 6.5 yps on average). On the other side, a very good Bengals offense (averaging 393 total yards at 6.3 yppl against teams that allow 368 yards at 5.8 yppl) should move the ball well against an average Houston defense.
I don't have any situations that apply to this game and my model favors the Bengals by 17.9 points. I lean with Cincinnati minus the points.
Vegas Butcher
DET @ GB -10.5
The Lions are 1-7 ATS, Packers have lost 2 games in a row, and Green Bay hasn’t lost 3 straight in 7 years with Rodgers at QB. Of course let’s not forget that the “spread” is a great neutralizer. Despite all these factors and the fact that 80% of the tickets are on the Packers, this line has been shifting towards Detroit. They are coming off a BYE, have dealt with a lot of turmoil as a number of front-office execs have recently gotten canned (as did some assistant coaches a few weeks back), and the players should be motivated to face a divisional opponent. One issue for the Packers is that their pass-D has been horrible lately. After starting out the season with a pass-D DVOA of -39%, one of the best marks in the league, this unit has registered +26%, +100%, and +64% in their last 3 games (positive is BAD for a defense). Absence of Sam Shields has had some to do with it, as well as other nagging injuries to defensive players. Shields is questionable and other banged up defenders will play, but I would also expect Detroit to make adjustments over their BYE week. Calvin Johnson missed some time this week but he’s played injured in the past, so I don’t see him missing this game. I think he has a chance to dominate his matchup in this one, and if that’s the case, the Lions should very well be in this game on Sunday. Lean: DET +10.5
CAR @ TEN +4
This spread opened at +4 (at Pinny) went up to +5.5, and now has gone back down to +4 with about 75% of the tickets on the Panthers. So what do we make of this? I’m not really sure, but I do think the number is still inflated a bit. My model has this one at -2.5 CAR, so there’s definitely some value on the Titans at over a FG at home. Remember, Whisenhunt is gone now, Mariota is back healthy, and the Titans sport the kind of defense (7th against the pass, 2nd in ASR%) that can slow down a lot of teams. Most people will look at Tennessee’s 2-6 record and assume this is an ‘easy’ win for the Panthers, but I don’t think it will be. Carolina is coming off a HUGE win at home against the Packers (technically 3 big home wins in a row vs PHI, IND, and GB) and will go on the road for the first time since mid-October. A decline in the ‘intensity’ they’ve showed these last 3 games is virtually a given. In addition, keep in mind that the Panthers are a ‘running’ team. The Titans have been excellent against the run lately, limiting their last two opponents to 117 yards on 50 combined carries or 2.3 YPC allowed. If they can do the same thing against the Panthers, Titans will be able to really control the game defensively. I know that Jason McCourty is out and Perrish Cox is GTD (Titans’ top corners), but it’s not like the Panthers possess a strong WR crew. Stopping the run, putting pressure on Newton, and enabling Mariota to make plays is what should keep this game competitive. The Titans are 2-1 against NFC South, with their only loss being a 10-7 home game to the Falcons against this division. I think they can give the Panthers some trouble in this one also. Lean: TEN +4
CHI @ STL -6.5
Here are the Bears’ last 5 games: 22-20 OAK; 18-17 KC; 34-37 DET; 20-23 MIN; 22-19 SD. That’s 3 wins and 2 losses with all the games being within a FG. Now all of a sudden they’re compared to the 49ers, a team that was a +7.5 point road underdog @ STL jut a few weeks ago. What gives? Remember, Bookmakers very rarely make mistakes and I don’t think this one is either. My model has this game at -7.2 Rams. All those Bears’ opponents I’ve listed above are subpar defensive teams. Rams rank 5th overall, 4th against the pass, and 5th rushing the passer with 27 sacks. This is the kind of D that can give major issues to the Bears. They’ll have Robert Quinn and TJ McDonald returning to the lineup, as both sat out last week. While the Rams’ D is getting stronger, Bears’ O might be getting weaker. Eddie Royal and Matt Forte are already out this week but Jeffery tweaked his groin on Wednesday and was a limited participant in Friday’s practice. If he sits, Bears have no chance. To make matters worse, Chicago’s best defensive player, Pernell McPhee missed all of practice time this week. Coming off a short week, going on the road for the 4th time in the last 5 games (had a BYE after the first 2 roadies though), and facing Todd Gurley, might be a recipe for disaster for the Bears. Let’s not forget that they’re coming off a win while St Louis is off an OT loss, so we might see different effort levels also in this matchup. This one is shaping up to potentially be a really tough game for Chicago. Lean: STL -6.5
NO @ WAS PK
New Orleans is 1-3 on the road (won @ IND), sports the league’s worst defense, and is facing a Washington squad that is 3-1 at home. Of course it’s important to note that Saints’ losses have come @ ARZ, @CAR, and @ PHI, so not like the competition as easy. Keep in mind that Washington is finally fully healthy on offense. With weapons like D-Jax, Garcon, Reed, Crowder (rookie they’re high on), Thompson (came back last week) and Jones, this Washington offense should put up points. As will the Saints of course. Washington’s D has allowed 460 yards to the Patriots last week. While that might not be a big deal (NE is the best offense in the league), but allowing 479 yards to the 24th ranked Tampa offense the week before is an issue. So we have two teams coming off a loss, with horrendous defenses, and plenty of weapons on offense. So what’s the tie-breaker? Well, QB’s of course. While Brees is one of all-time greats, Cousins is a turnover-prone game manager type. Still, facing this Saints D, maybe Cousins will look just as good as Brees does in this one. Lean: WAS PK
MIA @ PHI -6
Unable to generate any pass-rush due to the season-long absence of Wake, this Dolphins team got torched by the Bills last week, losing 33-17. That’s now two straight blowout losses in a row, after a promising 2-0 start to the Campbell era. The ‘novelty’ of a new coach has worn off, and Miami is back to being ‘who they are’, a mediocre team with a 27th ranked defense and an inconsistent offense. This will be Miami’s 3rd straight road game and after allowing 266 rushing yards to the Bills last week, they’ll now take on a Philly team that ranks 7th in rushing efficiency and absolutely loves to run the ball. This Miami D might be gassed by halftime. Without an ability to rush the passer or stop the run, I’m not sure how Miami keeps Philly from piling up points in this one. Lean: PHI -6
CLE @ PIT -5.5
Landry Jones vs Johnny Manziel in this one. While QB’s might not make a difference what should though is each team’s run-D. Cleveland ranks 30th against the run, and will take on Pittsburgh’s #1 ranked run offense. Remember, Deangello Williams started 3 games for PIT already, so the #1 rank is NOT just due to Bell. On the other side, you have the 5th ranked PIT run-D take on the 28th ranked Cleveland run-O. As long as Landry Jones can connect with Brown and Bryant a few times and with Williams running through this swiss-cheese defense as expected, it should be awfully hard for Johnny Not-so-Money to keep up. Lean: PIT -5.5
JAX @ BAL -5
Prior to their BYE the Ravens were -4.5 point home favorites to the Chargers. Now they’re at a similar number this week. Baltimore’s 28th ranked pass-D is a big disadvantage in this one, as Jacksonville is actually the 12th ranked passing offense. In addition, Jags rank 2nd in run-D, which should force the weapon-less Baltimore offense to air it out. Like I’ve mentioned two weeks ago, this Baltimore team shouldn’t be laying more than a FG to anyone. I think they’re inflated once again. Lean: JAX +5
MIN @ OAK -3
Last week I mentioned that Vikings are pretty much an ‘auto fade’ the rest of the way, as they’ll be over-valued going forward. This team is just not very good from my perspective, and their 7-1 ATS record is a fluke. They won in OT last week, Teddy Bridgewater is questionable with a concussion (though I think he plays), and they have a huge home game against the Packers next week. Coming off a loss @ Pittsburgh and playing great football right now, I like the Raiders to bounce back at home. Lean: OAK -3
KC @ DEN -4.5
Sometimes you snooze and loose, as this line opened +6.5 KC and is down to +4.5 now. Aqib Talib is suspended, Emanuel Sanders is GTD, and DeMarcus Ware is out after re-aggravating his back injury last week. But even more so that these factors, is the fact that Andy Reid is virtually unbeatable when coming off a BYE. He’s like 13-2 off a BYE in his career. What should help him potentially get another win here, is the play of his defense. They started out the year averaging a +18% DVOA, which would rank as the 2nd worst mark in the league (that’s partly to a +64% mark against Cincy. Take that out and they’d be at +7%, 24th in the league tied with Dallas). The last 3 weeks their defensive DVOA has been -33%, -17%, and -30%. Now they’ll face Denver’s 31st ranked offense, an offense that registered a positive DVOA only once this season (Denver’s annihilation of Green Bay in week 8). When these teams met earlier this year KC gave the game away at home, as a -3 point home favorite. The spread is 7.5 points off from that number, and even though some of the value is gone, this is still a playable number from my perspective. I like the Chiefs’ chances for an upset here. Lean: KC +4.5
NE @ NYG +7.5
My model has this one at -4.5 Patriots, so this tells you where the ‘value’ lies. Before the season started, the line on this game was -1.5 Patriots. And thinking about this one logically, you have to assume that lines on Pats’ going forward will be inflated. I think that’s the case here. Giants are a decent team, and if anyone knows how to beat New England, it’s them. Jason Pierre-Paul has returned so he’ll help with the pass-rush. Plus the absence of Dion Lewis can’t be overstated here. He was a huge component of what Pats do offensively, and I’m not sure he can be replaced. Not in a week at least. Plus consider the fact that Giants rank 7th in run-D and if they can take away that component of New England’s offense, they should have a better chance. I think grabbing the points is the way to go here. Lean: NYG +7.5
ARZ @ SEA -3
I’m not sure what Seattle has done this year to be ranked on the same level as Arizona in this matchup, but they are. While both teams are stout defensively, offensively is where Cards have an advantage. They rank 2nd in the pass-game and 5th in pass-protection with only 11 sacks allowed. By comparison Seattle is 21st via the pass and 32nd in pass-protection with 31 sacks allowed. Seattle’s last “convincing” win was against San Fra, but besides that one they barely won against Dallas with Cassell at QB, barely beat the Lions at home (should have lost), and couldn’t put away elite teams like CIN and CAR. Now they’ll face another elite team and I think they’re actually laying too many points in this one. Lean: ARZ +3
DET @ GB -10.5
The Lions are 1-7 ATS, Packers have lost 2 games in a row, and Green Bay hasn’t lost 3 straight in 7 years with Rodgers at QB. Of course let’s not forget that the “spread” is a great neutralizer. Despite all these factors and the fact that 80% of the tickets are on the Packers, this line has been shifting towards Detroit. They are coming off a BYE, have dealt with a lot of turmoil as a number of front-office execs have recently gotten canned (as did some assistant coaches a few weeks back), and the players should be motivated to face a divisional opponent. One issue for the Packers is that their pass-D has been horrible lately. After starting out the season with a pass-D DVOA of -39%, one of the best marks in the league, this unit has registered +26%, +100%, and +64% in their last 3 games (positive is BAD for a defense). Absence of Sam Shields has had some to do with it, as well as other nagging injuries to defensive players. Shields is questionable and other banged up defenders will play, but I would also expect Detroit to make adjustments over their BYE week. Calvin Johnson missed some time this week but he’s played injured in the past, so I don’t see him missing this game. I think he has a chance to dominate his matchup in this one, and if that’s the case, the Lions should very well be in this game on Sunday. Lean: DET +10.5
CAR @ TEN +4
This spread opened at +4 (at Pinny) went up to +5.5, and now has gone back down to +4 with about 75% of the tickets on the Panthers. So what do we make of this? I’m not really sure, but I do think the number is still inflated a bit. My model has this one at -2.5 CAR, so there’s definitely some value on the Titans at over a FG at home. Remember, Whisenhunt is gone now, Mariota is back healthy, and the Titans sport the kind of defense (7th against the pass, 2nd in ASR%) that can slow down a lot of teams. Most people will look at Tennessee’s 2-6 record and assume this is an ‘easy’ win for the Panthers, but I don’t think it will be. Carolina is coming off a HUGE win at home against the Packers (technically 3 big home wins in a row vs PHI, IND, and GB) and will go on the road for the first time since mid-October. A decline in the ‘intensity’ they’ve showed these last 3 games is virtually a given. In addition, keep in mind that the Panthers are a ‘running’ team. The Titans have been excellent against the run lately, limiting their last two opponents to 117 yards on 50 combined carries or 2.3 YPC allowed. If they can do the same thing against the Panthers, Titans will be able to really control the game defensively. I know that Jason McCourty is out and Perrish Cox is GTD (Titans’ top corners), but it’s not like the Panthers possess a strong WR crew. Stopping the run, putting pressure on Newton, and enabling Mariota to make plays is what should keep this game competitive. The Titans are 2-1 against NFC South, with their only loss being a 10-7 home game to the Falcons against this division. I think they can give the Panthers some trouble in this one also. Lean: TEN +4
CHI @ STL -6.5
Here are the Bears’ last 5 games: 22-20 OAK; 18-17 KC; 34-37 DET; 20-23 MIN; 22-19 SD. That’s 3 wins and 2 losses with all the games being within a FG. Now all of a sudden they’re compared to the 49ers, a team that was a +7.5 point road underdog @ STL jut a few weeks ago. What gives? Remember, Bookmakers very rarely make mistakes and I don’t think this one is either. My model has this game at -7.2 Rams. All those Bears’ opponents I’ve listed above are subpar defensive teams. Rams rank 5th overall, 4th against the pass, and 5th rushing the passer with 27 sacks. This is the kind of D that can give major issues to the Bears. They’ll have Robert Quinn and TJ McDonald returning to the lineup, as both sat out last week. While the Rams’ D is getting stronger, Bears’ O might be getting weaker. Eddie Royal and Matt Forte are already out this week but Jeffery tweaked his groin on Wednesday and was a limited participant in Friday’s practice. If he sits, Bears have no chance. To make matters worse, Chicago’s best defensive player, Pernell McPhee missed all of practice time this week. Coming off a short week, going on the road for the 4th time in the last 5 games (had a BYE after the first 2 roadies though), and facing Todd Gurley, might be a recipe for disaster for the Bears. Let’s not forget that they’re coming off a win while St Louis is off an OT loss, so we might see different effort levels also in this matchup. This one is shaping up to potentially be a really tough game for Chicago. Lean: STL -6.5
NO @ WAS PK
New Orleans is 1-3 on the road (won @ IND), sports the league’s worst defense, and is facing a Washington squad that is 3-1 at home. Of course it’s important to note that Saints’ losses have come @ ARZ, @CAR, and @ PHI, so not like the competition as easy. Keep in mind that Washington is finally fully healthy on offense. With weapons like D-Jax, Garcon, Reed, Crowder (rookie they’re high on), Thompson (came back last week) and Jones, this Washington offense should put up points. As will the Saints of course. Washington’s D has allowed 460 yards to the Patriots last week. While that might not be a big deal (NE is the best offense in the league), but allowing 479 yards to the 24th ranked Tampa offense the week before is an issue. So we have two teams coming off a loss, with horrendous defenses, and plenty of weapons on offense. So what’s the tie-breaker? Well, QB’s of course. While Brees is one of all-time greats, Cousins is a turnover-prone game manager type. Still, facing this Saints D, maybe Cousins will look just as good as Brees does in this one. Lean: WAS PK
MIA @ PHI -6
Unable to generate any pass-rush due to the season-long absence of Wake, this Dolphins team got torched by the Bills last week, losing 33-17. That’s now two straight blowout losses in a row, after a promising 2-0 start to the Campbell era. The ‘novelty’ of a new coach has worn off, and Miami is back to being ‘who they are’, a mediocre team with a 27th ranked defense and an inconsistent offense. This will be Miami’s 3rd straight road game and after allowing 266 rushing yards to the Bills last week, they’ll now take on a Philly team that ranks 7th in rushing efficiency and absolutely loves to run the ball. This Miami D might be gassed by halftime. Without an ability to rush the passer or stop the run, I’m not sure how Miami keeps Philly from piling up points in this one. Lean: PHI -6
CLE @ PIT -5.5
Landry Jones vs Johnny Manziel in this one. While QB’s might not make a difference what should though is each team’s run-D. Cleveland ranks 30th against the run, and will take on Pittsburgh’s #1 ranked run offense. Remember, Deangello Williams started 3 games for PIT already, so the #1 rank is NOT just due to Bell. On the other side, you have the 5th ranked PIT run-D take on the 28th ranked Cleveland run-O. As long as Landry Jones can connect with Brown and Bryant a few times and with Williams running through this swiss-cheese defense as expected, it should be awfully hard for Johnny Not-so-Money to keep up. Lean: PIT -5.5
JAX @ BAL -5
Prior to their BYE the Ravens were -4.5 point home favorites to the Chargers. Now they’re at a similar number this week. Baltimore’s 28th ranked pass-D is a big disadvantage in this one, as Jacksonville is actually the 12th ranked passing offense. In addition, Jags rank 2nd in run-D, which should force the weapon-less Baltimore offense to air it out. Like I’ve mentioned two weeks ago, this Baltimore team shouldn’t be laying more than a FG to anyone. I think they’re inflated once again. Lean: JAX +5
MIN @ OAK -3
Last week I mentioned that Vikings are pretty much an ‘auto fade’ the rest of the way, as they’ll be over-valued going forward. This team is just not very good from my perspective, and their 7-1 ATS record is a fluke. They won in OT last week, Teddy Bridgewater is questionable with a concussion (though I think he plays), and they have a huge home game against the Packers next week. Coming off a loss @ Pittsburgh and playing great football right now, I like the Raiders to bounce back at home. Lean: OAK -3
KC @ DEN -4.5
Sometimes you snooze and loose, as this line opened +6.5 KC and is down to +4.5 now. Aqib Talib is suspended, Emanuel Sanders is GTD, and DeMarcus Ware is out after re-aggravating his back injury last week. But even more so that these factors, is the fact that Andy Reid is virtually unbeatable when coming off a BYE. He’s like 13-2 off a BYE in his career. What should help him potentially get another win here, is the play of his defense. They started out the year averaging a +18% DVOA, which would rank as the 2nd worst mark in the league (that’s partly to a +64% mark against Cincy. Take that out and they’d be at +7%, 24th in the league tied with Dallas). The last 3 weeks their defensive DVOA has been -33%, -17%, and -30%. Now they’ll face Denver’s 31st ranked offense, an offense that registered a positive DVOA only once this season (Denver’s annihilation of Green Bay in week 8). When these teams met earlier this year KC gave the game away at home, as a -3 point home favorite. The spread is 7.5 points off from that number, and even though some of the value is gone, this is still a playable number from my perspective. I like the Chiefs’ chances for an upset here. Lean: KC +4.5
NE @ NYG +7.5
My model has this one at -4.5 Patriots, so this tells you where the ‘value’ lies. Before the season started, the line on this game was -1.5 Patriots. And thinking about this one logically, you have to assume that lines on Pats’ going forward will be inflated. I think that’s the case here. Giants are a decent team, and if anyone knows how to beat New England, it’s them. Jason Pierre-Paul has returned so he’ll help with the pass-rush. Plus the absence of Dion Lewis can’t be overstated here. He was a huge component of what Pats do offensively, and I’m not sure he can be replaced. Not in a week at least. Plus consider the fact that Giants rank 7th in run-D and if they can take away that component of New England’s offense, they should have a better chance. I think grabbing the points is the way to go here. Lean: NYG +7.5
ARZ @ SEA -3
I’m not sure what Seattle has done this year to be ranked on the same level as Arizona in this matchup, but they are. While both teams are stout defensively, offensively is where Cards have an advantage. They rank 2nd in the pass-game and 5th in pass-protection with only 11 sacks allowed. By comparison Seattle is 21st via the pass and 32nd in pass-protection with 31 sacks allowed. Seattle’s last “convincing” win was against San Fra, but besides that one they barely won against Dallas with Cassell at QB, barely beat the Lions at home (should have lost), and couldn’t put away elite teams like CIN and CAR. Now they’ll face another elite team and I think they’re actually laying too many points in this one. Lean: ARZ +3
TEDDY COVERS
Take Tennessee (#256)
There are bad spots. There are really bad spots. And then there are truly horrific spots – unbettable spots – like the one the Panthers are in this Sunday.
I’ve been a Carolina supporter on multiple occasions in recent weeks, cashing several winning bets for myself and my clients in support of Ron Rivera’s squad. I know that the Panthers have been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. I know how good their defense is. I know that Cam Newton is better than his overall stats would indicate. This is not a bet based on disrespect for Carolina; not a chance.
But take a hard look at this spot for the Panthers. They came out of their bye and played a chippy, physical playoff revenge matchup at Seattle, rallying from two scores down in the fourth quarter to win; a maximum intensity game. The Panthers followed that up with an appearance on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles, another intense battle against an NFC contender. That was followed by a rare Monday Night Football home game in Carolina, another down-to-the-wire battle against the Colts, resulting in another win for the Panthers. Then last week, Carolina faced Green Bay at home in yet another statement game that came down to the final possession.
The Panthers closed out that brutal, ultra-intense, month long stretch with a 4-0 mark, improving to 8-0 on the campaign. Now this week, they travel to take on the 2-6 Titans. Spots don’t get much flatter than this, and Carolina needs to win by margin in order to cover this pointspread; a clear ‘bet-against’ situation.
The Titans looked like a new team last week in their upset win at New Orleans. The Titans played with pride and passion with Mike Mularkey taking over for fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt and a healthy Marcus Mariota back at quarterback. Tennessee’s pointspreads are still based on their season long numbers, but those season long numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of future results after the coaching change and return to health from their emerging young quarterback. Right now, the Titans clearly offer ‘bet-on’ potential; worth backing as home underdogs on Sunday. Take the Titans.
Take Tennessee (#256)
There are bad spots. There are really bad spots. And then there are truly horrific spots – unbettable spots – like the one the Panthers are in this Sunday.
I’ve been a Carolina supporter on multiple occasions in recent weeks, cashing several winning bets for myself and my clients in support of Ron Rivera’s squad. I know that the Panthers have been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. I know how good their defense is. I know that Cam Newton is better than his overall stats would indicate. This is not a bet based on disrespect for Carolina; not a chance.
But take a hard look at this spot for the Panthers. They came out of their bye and played a chippy, physical playoff revenge matchup at Seattle, rallying from two scores down in the fourth quarter to win; a maximum intensity game. The Panthers followed that up with an appearance on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles, another intense battle against an NFC contender. That was followed by a rare Monday Night Football home game in Carolina, another down-to-the-wire battle against the Colts, resulting in another win for the Panthers. Then last week, Carolina faced Green Bay at home in yet another statement game that came down to the final possession.
The Panthers closed out that brutal, ultra-intense, month long stretch with a 4-0 mark, improving to 8-0 on the campaign. Now this week, they travel to take on the 2-6 Titans. Spots don’t get much flatter than this, and Carolina needs to win by margin in order to cover this pointspread; a clear ‘bet-against’ situation.
The Titans looked like a new team last week in their upset win at New Orleans. The Titans played with pride and passion with Mike Mularkey taking over for fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt and a healthy Marcus Mariota back at quarterback. Tennessee’s pointspreads are still based on their season long numbers, but those season long numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of future results after the coaching change and return to health from their emerging young quarterback. Right now, the Titans clearly offer ‘bet-on’ potential; worth backing as home underdogs on Sunday. Take the Titans.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Buccaneers over Cowboys
Tony Romo is still out and the Cowboys are 0-6 straight-up since his departure while going 1-5 ATS. Dallas added linebacker Sean Lee to their already full injured list while Matt Cassel continues to do enough to get beat. He is 1-6 ATS in his last seven road starts. Dallas holds a lifetime 13-3 advantage over Tampa Bay but things are different here. The Bucs have held the Saints and Panthers to season low in yards gained. If the hold on to the ball (4 TO's against New York) they can win here. Take TAMPA BAY
Buccaneers over Cowboys
Tony Romo is still out and the Cowboys are 0-6 straight-up since his departure while going 1-5 ATS. Dallas added linebacker Sean Lee to their already full injured list while Matt Cassel continues to do enough to get beat. He is 1-6 ATS in his last seven road starts. Dallas holds a lifetime 13-3 advantage over Tampa Bay but things are different here. The Bucs have held the Saints and Panthers to season low in yards gained. If the hold on to the ball (4 TO's against New York) they can win here. Take TAMPA BAY
MARC LAWRENCE
Play - Miami Dolphins.
Edges - Dolphins: 11-2 ATS away with revenge off BB division games. Eagles: 0-7 ATS off division game versus foe off division game; and 5-20 ATS as a favorite after defeating Dallas. With AFC East teams 4-2 SUATS versus NFC East foes this season, including 2-0 SUATS away, we recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.
Play - Miami Dolphins.
Edges - Dolphins: 11-2 ATS away with revenge off BB division games. Eagles: 0-7 ATS off division game versus foe off division game; and 5-20 ATS as a favorite after defeating Dallas. With AFC East teams 4-2 SUATS versus NFC East foes this season, including 2-0 SUATS away, we recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.
JACK JONES
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New England Patriots -7
I can’t help but think the Patriots are going to be extra motivated for this game because of their two Super Bowl losses to the Giants, and their three straight losses in this series overall. Of course, many of the players aren’t still around from those games, but some are. That includes the two key ones in Eli Manning and Tom Brady. You can bet that Brady is going to want to hang a big number on this Giants defense, and that shouldn’t be a problem.
Brady and the Patriots have been the most dominant team in the NFL this season. They are 8-0 and outscoring opponents by an average of 16.6 points per game. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring 34.5 points per game and averaging 420.2 yards per game to rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense. But the defense has held its own, too, giving up just 17.9 points per game.
The defense has really found its stride the last two weeks, giving up an average of 8.5 points per game in two straight blowout wins over the Dolphins (36-7) and Redskins (27-10). They limited the Dolphins to just 270 total yards, which was a Dolphins offense that had put up an average of 41.0 points per game the previous two weeks. They also held the Redskins to just 250 total yards, which is impressive when you consider the Redskins had two weeks to prepare for that game.
New York might be the most overrated team in the NFL. It ranks 31st in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 73.1 yards per game. The Giants have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season. They were outgained by 58 yards by the Bucs last week, by 192 yards by the Saints two weeks ago, by 171 yards by the Cowboys three weeks back, and by 181 yards by the Eagles four weeks ago.
The only reason the Giants have been able to sport a 5-4 record with those awful numbers is because they lead the league in turnover differential (+12). But now they’ll be up against a Patriots team that does not turn the ball over, only committing five turnovers through eight games this year. Brady will shred a Giants defense that ranks 32nd in allowing 422.8 yards per game. The Giants are also 31st against the pass, yielding 308.0 yards per game through the air. New York ranks last in sacks (9) defensively this year as well.
The Patriots are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win. New England is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards over the past two seasons. Tom Coughlin is 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games as the coach of the Giants. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New England Patriots -7
I can’t help but think the Patriots are going to be extra motivated for this game because of their two Super Bowl losses to the Giants, and their three straight losses in this series overall. Of course, many of the players aren’t still around from those games, but some are. That includes the two key ones in Eli Manning and Tom Brady. You can bet that Brady is going to want to hang a big number on this Giants defense, and that shouldn’t be a problem.
Brady and the Patriots have been the most dominant team in the NFL this season. They are 8-0 and outscoring opponents by an average of 16.6 points per game. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring 34.5 points per game and averaging 420.2 yards per game to rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense. But the defense has held its own, too, giving up just 17.9 points per game.
The defense has really found its stride the last two weeks, giving up an average of 8.5 points per game in two straight blowout wins over the Dolphins (36-7) and Redskins (27-10). They limited the Dolphins to just 270 total yards, which was a Dolphins offense that had put up an average of 41.0 points per game the previous two weeks. They also held the Redskins to just 250 total yards, which is impressive when you consider the Redskins had two weeks to prepare for that game.
New York might be the most overrated team in the NFL. It ranks 31st in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 73.1 yards per game. The Giants have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season. They were outgained by 58 yards by the Bucs last week, by 192 yards by the Saints two weeks ago, by 171 yards by the Cowboys three weeks back, and by 181 yards by the Eagles four weeks ago.
The only reason the Giants have been able to sport a 5-4 record with those awful numbers is because they lead the league in turnover differential (+12). But now they’ll be up against a Patriots team that does not turn the ball over, only committing five turnovers through eight games this year. Brady will shred a Giants defense that ranks 32nd in allowing 422.8 yards per game. The Giants are also 31st against the pass, yielding 308.0 yards per game through the air. New York ranks last in sacks (9) defensively this year as well.
The Patriots are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win. New England is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards over the past two seasons. Tom Coughlin is 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games as the coach of the Giants. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
TONY GEORGE
LIONS+11
The entire planet according to my sources in Las Vegas, who happens to be the biggest oddsmaker in town and a guest on my radio show weekly on Yahoo Sports radio and Sirius 93, is on Green Bay here, especially with the fact the Packers have had 2 beatdowns from Denver and Carolina. Over 70% of the tickets written are on Green Bay but yet the line has barely moved. While the volume is on Green Bay, the bigger money or sharp money is on Detroit folks, thus the oline is stable.
As a matter of fact I am on Detroit in the Westgate Superbook Contest, of which my team is in the top 35 right now in that contest. CONTRARIAN is how you look at this. Detroit is off a bye week after a front office shakeup, and yes I know they have not won at Green Bay since 1991 when Wayne Fontes was their head coach, WOW. I am taking the huge points here because in all honesty Green Bay is not all that, and may be the most overhyped team in the NFL because when they have played good team, they got their butt handed to them.
This is not to say Detroit is a good team, but one that is hungry for a win, they have talent at skill positions on offense to expose and average at best defense and put up some points here after an embarrassing loss to Kansas City in London 2 weeks ago. You are betting into numbers, not games, and I will rarely if ever lay double digits in the NFL, and will only take the double digits. Detroit has enough moxie to cover this insane number, and a double digit number from a team who has lost 2 games in a row.
FREE Pro Pick on Detroit
LIONS+11
The entire planet according to my sources in Las Vegas, who happens to be the biggest oddsmaker in town and a guest on my radio show weekly on Yahoo Sports radio and Sirius 93, is on Green Bay here, especially with the fact the Packers have had 2 beatdowns from Denver and Carolina. Over 70% of the tickets written are on Green Bay but yet the line has barely moved. While the volume is on Green Bay, the bigger money or sharp money is on Detroit folks, thus the oline is stable.
As a matter of fact I am on Detroit in the Westgate Superbook Contest, of which my team is in the top 35 right now in that contest. CONTRARIAN is how you look at this. Detroit is off a bye week after a front office shakeup, and yes I know they have not won at Green Bay since 1991 when Wayne Fontes was their head coach, WOW. I am taking the huge points here because in all honesty Green Bay is not all that, and may be the most overhyped team in the NFL because when they have played good team, they got their butt handed to them.
This is not to say Detroit is a good team, but one that is hungry for a win, they have talent at skill positions on offense to expose and average at best defense and put up some points here after an embarrassing loss to Kansas City in London 2 weeks ago. You are betting into numbers, not games, and I will rarely if ever lay double digits in the NFL, and will only take the double digits. Detroit has enough moxie to cover this insane number, and a double digit number from a team who has lost 2 games in a row.
FREE Pro Pick on Detroit
BRANDON LEE
10* FREE NFL PICK (Eagles -5.5)
No one wants to give this Eagles team much respect after their sluggish start to the season, but they come in playing their best football with 3 wins in their last 4 games. The only loss being on the road against the undefeated Panthers. Miami played hard for a couple of games after switching up coaches, but quickly reverted back to their early form with a 7-36 loss to New England and 17-33 defeat at Buffalo. They gave up 266 rushing yards to the Bills and will be facing an Eagles' offense that has got their ground game going of late with 4 straight games with at least 150 rushing yards. I look for the Eagles to be the much more motivated team and I see this one turning into a blowout rather early. Give me the Eagles -5.5!
10* FREE NFL PICK (Eagles -5.5)
No one wants to give this Eagles team much respect after their sluggish start to the season, but they come in playing their best football with 3 wins in their last 4 games. The only loss being on the road against the undefeated Panthers. Miami played hard for a couple of games after switching up coaches, but quickly reverted back to their early form with a 7-36 loss to New England and 17-33 defeat at Buffalo. They gave up 266 rushing yards to the Bills and will be facing an Eagles' offense that has got their ground game going of late with 4 straight games with at least 150 rushing yards. I look for the Eagles to be the much more motivated team and I see this one turning into a blowout rather early. Give me the Eagles -5.5!
Preview: Detroit at Green Bay
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
After being humbled by a pair of heavyweights, the Green Bay Packers look to get back on track when they host the NFL-worst Detroit Lions on Sunday. Porous starts proved to be the Packers' undoing in both a 29-10 loss to Denver on Nov. 1 and a 37-29 setback to Carolina last week.
"We played two undefeated opponents (at the time) at their place," quarterback Aaron Rodgers told reporters. "I feel good about our football team. We're headed in the right direction." Detroit certainly has spiraled in the wrong direction and makes the trek to Wisconsin, where it has lost 24 consecutive contests (including postseason). The Lions last played in a 45-10 loss to Kansas City in London on Nov. 1, but continued to make news by dismissing three offensive assistants before team president Tom Lewand and general manager Martin Mayhew were fired last week.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -11.5. O/U: 47.5
ABOUT THE LIONS (1-7): To add injury to insult, Calvin Johnson tweaked his ankle in the late stages of the blowout loss to the Chiefs and is questionable to face the Packers. The veteran wideout has enjoyed considerable success versus Green Bay, reeling in 14 touchdown receptions in as many meetings. The Lions' rushing game is averaging a league-worst 69.6 yards per contest, but offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter told reporters that rookie Ameer Abdullah's "role will be growing. I'd like to get him the ball."
ABOUT THE PACKERS (6-2): Rodgers hasn't missed a beat with wideout James Jones, who has recorded a touchdown reception in all four games at Lambeau Field this season and had an 83-yard score in his last home game versus Detroit two years ago. James Starks has usurped Eddie Lacy as the team's starting running back, with the latter being limited to just 78 yards on 33 attempts in his last four contests. Starks had in six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay's failed comeback bid versus Carolina.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Detroit DE Ezekiel Ansah has provided a bright spot on the team's sputtering defense, recording an NFC-best seven sacks this season.
2. Green Bay LB Clay Matthews expects to play on Sunday despite sporting a heavily taped ankle during Thursday's practice.
3. The Lions posted a 21-17 victory over the Packers on Dec. 15, 1991, marking their last win in Wisconsin.
PREDICTION: Packers 34, Lions 14
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
After being humbled by a pair of heavyweights, the Green Bay Packers look to get back on track when they host the NFL-worst Detroit Lions on Sunday. Porous starts proved to be the Packers' undoing in both a 29-10 loss to Denver on Nov. 1 and a 37-29 setback to Carolina last week.
"We played two undefeated opponents (at the time) at their place," quarterback Aaron Rodgers told reporters. "I feel good about our football team. We're headed in the right direction." Detroit certainly has spiraled in the wrong direction and makes the trek to Wisconsin, where it has lost 24 consecutive contests (including postseason). The Lions last played in a 45-10 loss to Kansas City in London on Nov. 1, but continued to make news by dismissing three offensive assistants before team president Tom Lewand and general manager Martin Mayhew were fired last week.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Packers -11.5. O/U: 47.5
ABOUT THE LIONS (1-7): To add injury to insult, Calvin Johnson tweaked his ankle in the late stages of the blowout loss to the Chiefs and is questionable to face the Packers. The veteran wideout has enjoyed considerable success versus Green Bay, reeling in 14 touchdown receptions in as many meetings. The Lions' rushing game is averaging a league-worst 69.6 yards per contest, but offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter told reporters that rookie Ameer Abdullah's "role will be growing. I'd like to get him the ball."
ABOUT THE PACKERS (6-2): Rodgers hasn't missed a beat with wideout James Jones, who has recorded a touchdown reception in all four games at Lambeau Field this season and had an 83-yard score in his last home game versus Detroit two years ago. James Starks has usurped Eddie Lacy as the team's starting running back, with the latter being limited to just 78 yards on 33 attempts in his last four contests. Starks had in six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay's failed comeback bid versus Carolina.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Detroit DE Ezekiel Ansah has provided a bright spot on the team's sputtering defense, recording an NFC-best seven sacks this season.
2. Green Bay LB Clay Matthews expects to play on Sunday despite sporting a heavily taped ankle during Thursday's practice.
3. The Lions posted a 21-17 victory over the Packers on Dec. 15, 1991, marking their last win in Wisconsin.
PREDICTION: Packers 34, Lions 14
Preview: Dallas at Tampa Bay
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
A six-game losing streak in the NFL is usually a death knell for a team's postseason hopes, but that Dallas Cowboys still have life thanks to the mediocrity of the NFC East. The margin of error, however, continues to shrink for the Cowboys, who will play the first leg of a two-game road trip in Florida with a visit to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
"I didn't expect to lose six games with our roster," Dallas owner Jerry Jones said. "I didn't expect to lose (Tony) Romo after the second game. ... We're just very disappointed for everybody concerned that we haven't won more games." The soap opera that has been swirling around Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy shifted to wide receiver Dez Bryant on Thursday. Bryant directed an expletive-filled tirade toward reporters during a locker-room rant, repeatedly calling them "dirty" before being led away by coach Jason Garrett, tight end Jason Witten and others. Tampa Bay was unable to build on an overtime victory at Atlanta in Week 8, wilting late in a 32-18 setback to the New York Giants.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Buccaneers -1.5. O/U: 43
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-6): Matt Cassel had his best start since joining Dallas with 299 yards and three touchdowns, but he also committed a huge mistake when he had an interception returned for a touchdown in last week's overtime loss to Philadelphia. Darren McFadden has provided a boost to the running game since Joseph Randle was hurt and subsequently released, rushing for 333 yards and a touchdown in his last three starts, while Bryant had five receptions for 104 yards and a score in his second game back from injury. Linebacker Sean Lee, the team's leading tackler, is doubtful after suffering a concussion last week.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-5): Top overall pick Jameis Winston is doing a better job at protecting the ball, passing for four touchdowns and rushing for two more while not throwing an interception over the last four games. Running back Doug Martin has rushed for 436 yards over a four-game stretch before he was limited to a season-low 31 by the Giants while second-year wideout Mike Evans spoiled an otherwise spectacular effort by dropping five passes during an eight-catch, 152-yard effort last week. The Buccaneers rank 11th in yards allowed (349.0 per game) but are 29th with 28.9 points surrendered.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Hardy has four sacks in four games this season and 13 in his last eight contests.
2. Evans has 19 receptions for 364 yards and a TD over his past three games.
3. Cowboys WR Cole Beasley had a career-best nine catches for 112 yards and two scores last week.
PREDICTION: Cowboys 23, Buccaneers 20
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
A six-game losing streak in the NFL is usually a death knell for a team's postseason hopes, but that Dallas Cowboys still have life thanks to the mediocrity of the NFC East. The margin of error, however, continues to shrink for the Cowboys, who will play the first leg of a two-game road trip in Florida with a visit to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.
"I didn't expect to lose six games with our roster," Dallas owner Jerry Jones said. "I didn't expect to lose (Tony) Romo after the second game. ... We're just very disappointed for everybody concerned that we haven't won more games." The soap opera that has been swirling around Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy shifted to wide receiver Dez Bryant on Thursday. Bryant directed an expletive-filled tirade toward reporters during a locker-room rant, repeatedly calling them "dirty" before being led away by coach Jason Garrett, tight end Jason Witten and others. Tampa Bay was unable to build on an overtime victory at Atlanta in Week 8, wilting late in a 32-18 setback to the New York Giants.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Buccaneers -1.5. O/U: 43
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-6): Matt Cassel had his best start since joining Dallas with 299 yards and three touchdowns, but he also committed a huge mistake when he had an interception returned for a touchdown in last week's overtime loss to Philadelphia. Darren McFadden has provided a boost to the running game since Joseph Randle was hurt and subsequently released, rushing for 333 yards and a touchdown in his last three starts, while Bryant had five receptions for 104 yards and a score in his second game back from injury. Linebacker Sean Lee, the team's leading tackler, is doubtful after suffering a concussion last week.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-5): Top overall pick Jameis Winston is doing a better job at protecting the ball, passing for four touchdowns and rushing for two more while not throwing an interception over the last four games. Running back Doug Martin has rushed for 436 yards over a four-game stretch before he was limited to a season-low 31 by the Giants while second-year wideout Mike Evans spoiled an otherwise spectacular effort by dropping five passes during an eight-catch, 152-yard effort last week. The Buccaneers rank 11th in yards allowed (349.0 per game) but are 29th with 28.9 points surrendered.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Hardy has four sacks in four games this season and 13 in his last eight contests.
2. Evans has 19 receptions for 364 yards and a TD over his past three games.
3. Cowboys WR Cole Beasley had a career-best nine catches for 112 yards and two scores last week.
PREDICTION: Cowboys 23, Buccaneers 20
Preview: Carolina at Tennessee
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans have won three straight against the Carolina Panthers – but not these Panthers. Carolina looks to end that skid and preserve the NFC’s only unbeaten record when it travels to Nashville on Sunday to face the Titans for the first time since 2011.
The Panthers remained undefeated with a 37-29 win over fellow NFC contender Green Bay last week, but they had to hold on after squandering most of a 23-point lead and allowing the Packers to drive inside the 5 with two minutes left. It was the second straight close call and near meltdown for Carolina, which has a 2 1/2-game lead in the NFC South despite its flaws. “We’ve just got to clean a lot of things up,” quarterback Cam Newton told reporters. “It wasn’t a pretty eight (wins), but it is eight, and that’s gorgeous in itself.” The Titans hope to take down a second straight NFC South opponent after pulling out a 34-28 overtime victory at New Orleans last week behind a career-high 371 passing yards and four touchdowns from rookie Marcus Mariota.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -5.5. O/U: 44
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (8-0): Carolina rolled up its second-highest yardage total of the season last week (427) while improving to 8-0 for the first time in franchise history, with Newton accounting for four touchdowns (three passing). Newton and Jonathan Stewart lead the league’s top rushing offense, which has helped the Panthers overcome a lack of capable receivers. Fourth-quarter collapses notwithstanding, Carolina’s defense has been solid and has forced 18 turnovers – fourth-most in the league – including six in the last two contests.
ABOUT THE TITANS (2-6): Tennessee owns the league’s No. 28 offense, but it looked explosive in Mariota’s first game since interim coach Mike Mularkey took over. The Titans’ 483 total yards last week were a season high as Mariota spread the ball to eight different receivers and Antonio Andrews rushed for a career-best 88 yards on 19 carries. The defense has been terrific against the pass and seems to have sorted out some of its issues stopping the run, having held two straight opponents to 61 yards or fewer on the ground.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Newton has 29 career games with at least one rushing touchdown and one passing score, the second-most in NFL history.
2. Tennessee has lost nine straight home games, its longest skid since relocating from Houston in 1997.
3. Panthers TE Greg Olsen has caught five touchdown passes in his last six games while WR Corey Brown has had a TD reception in two straight contests.
PREDICTION: Panthers 27, Titans 20
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans have won three straight against the Carolina Panthers – but not these Panthers. Carolina looks to end that skid and preserve the NFC’s only unbeaten record when it travels to Nashville on Sunday to face the Titans for the first time since 2011.
The Panthers remained undefeated with a 37-29 win over fellow NFC contender Green Bay last week, but they had to hold on after squandering most of a 23-point lead and allowing the Packers to drive inside the 5 with two minutes left. It was the second straight close call and near meltdown for Carolina, which has a 2 1/2-game lead in the NFC South despite its flaws. “We’ve just got to clean a lot of things up,” quarterback Cam Newton told reporters. “It wasn’t a pretty eight (wins), but it is eight, and that’s gorgeous in itself.” The Titans hope to take down a second straight NFC South opponent after pulling out a 34-28 overtime victory at New Orleans last week behind a career-high 371 passing yards and four touchdowns from rookie Marcus Mariota.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -5.5. O/U: 44
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (8-0): Carolina rolled up its second-highest yardage total of the season last week (427) while improving to 8-0 for the first time in franchise history, with Newton accounting for four touchdowns (three passing). Newton and Jonathan Stewart lead the league’s top rushing offense, which has helped the Panthers overcome a lack of capable receivers. Fourth-quarter collapses notwithstanding, Carolina’s defense has been solid and has forced 18 turnovers – fourth-most in the league – including six in the last two contests.
ABOUT THE TITANS (2-6): Tennessee owns the league’s No. 28 offense, but it looked explosive in Mariota’s first game since interim coach Mike Mularkey took over. The Titans’ 483 total yards last week were a season high as Mariota spread the ball to eight different receivers and Antonio Andrews rushed for a career-best 88 yards on 19 carries. The defense has been terrific against the pass and seems to have sorted out some of its issues stopping the run, having held two straight opponents to 61 yards or fewer on the ground.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Newton has 29 career games with at least one rushing touchdown and one passing score, the second-most in NFL history.
2. Tennessee has lost nine straight home games, its longest skid since relocating from Houston in 1997.
3. Panthers TE Greg Olsen has caught five touchdown passes in his last six games while WR Corey Brown has had a TD reception in two straight contests.
PREDICTION: Panthers 27, Titans 20
Preview: Chicago at St. Louis
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri
The St. Louis Rams’ playoff prospects have shot upward since Todd Gurley took over as their starting running back, and they hope the star rookie can help them stay in the postseason race with a win over the visiting Chicago Bears on Sunday. The Bears, who desperately need a victory to keep alive their playoff hopes, have had a difficult time stopping the run but shut down San Diego’s potent offense last week.
Gurley rushed for at least 128 yards in each of his first four starts and ranks fourth in the league with 664 yards despite being limited to 89 and a touchdown in last week’s 21-18 overtime loss at Minnesota. The Bears have an impressive rookie running back of their own in Jeremy Langford, who racked up 142 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in his first start to help Chicago edge the Chargers 22-19 on Monday. The fourth-round pick out of Michigan State could be called upon again with star Matt Forte recovering from a knee injury. Chicago had won four straight in the series before the Rams’ 42-21 home victory in the most recent meeting in 2013.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Rams -7. O/U: 42.5
ABOUT THE BEARS (3-5): Chicago put up a season-high 446 total yards last week as Jay Cutler overcame two early turnovers to pass for 345 yards and two scores. The offense could be short-handed, though, with Forte not expected to return and receiver Alshon Jeffery, who has tied a franchise mark with three consecutive games of at least 100 receiving yards, missing Thursday’s practice after he injured his groin the previous day. The Bears have been tough against the pass all season and rank 24th against the run, but they limited the Chargers to 339 total yards last week - including just 77 on the ground.
ABOUT THE RAMS (4-4): Gurley has injected life into an offense that has sputtered in the passing game with quarterback Nic Foles at the helm, as the team has not had more yards passing than rushing since Week 3. The Rams added veteran receiver Wes Welker on Monday to help make up for losing Stedman Bailey to a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, but if Welker is able to play Sunday, it only will be on a limited basis. St. Louis ranks fifth in total defense and leads the NFC in sacks (27) with defensive end Robert Quinn (5) and defensive tackle Aaron Donald (4.5) leading the way, but Quinn is questionable with a knee injury.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Cutler (139) passed Sid Luckman for the franchise lead in touchdown tosses last week and threw his 12th game-winning TD pass in the fourth quarter since joining the Bears in 2009.
2. Gurley is the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least 85 yards in each of his first five starts.
3. Bears TE Martellus Bennett has caught a touchdown pass in each of his two previous games against St. Louis.
PREDICTION: Rams 22, Bears 19
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri
The St. Louis Rams’ playoff prospects have shot upward since Todd Gurley took over as their starting running back, and they hope the star rookie can help them stay in the postseason race with a win over the visiting Chicago Bears on Sunday. The Bears, who desperately need a victory to keep alive their playoff hopes, have had a difficult time stopping the run but shut down San Diego’s potent offense last week.
Gurley rushed for at least 128 yards in each of his first four starts and ranks fourth in the league with 664 yards despite being limited to 89 and a touchdown in last week’s 21-18 overtime loss at Minnesota. The Bears have an impressive rookie running back of their own in Jeremy Langford, who racked up 142 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in his first start to help Chicago edge the Chargers 22-19 on Monday. The fourth-round pick out of Michigan State could be called upon again with star Matt Forte recovering from a knee injury. Chicago had won four straight in the series before the Rams’ 42-21 home victory in the most recent meeting in 2013.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Rams -7. O/U: 42.5
ABOUT THE BEARS (3-5): Chicago put up a season-high 446 total yards last week as Jay Cutler overcame two early turnovers to pass for 345 yards and two scores. The offense could be short-handed, though, with Forte not expected to return and receiver Alshon Jeffery, who has tied a franchise mark with three consecutive games of at least 100 receiving yards, missing Thursday’s practice after he injured his groin the previous day. The Bears have been tough against the pass all season and rank 24th against the run, but they limited the Chargers to 339 total yards last week - including just 77 on the ground.
ABOUT THE RAMS (4-4): Gurley has injected life into an offense that has sputtered in the passing game with quarterback Nic Foles at the helm, as the team has not had more yards passing than rushing since Week 3. The Rams added veteran receiver Wes Welker on Monday to help make up for losing Stedman Bailey to a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, but if Welker is able to play Sunday, it only will be on a limited basis. St. Louis ranks fifth in total defense and leads the NFC in sacks (27) with defensive end Robert Quinn (5) and defensive tackle Aaron Donald (4.5) leading the way, but Quinn is questionable with a knee injury.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Cutler (139) passed Sid Luckman for the franchise lead in touchdown tosses last week and threw his 12th game-winning TD pass in the fourth quarter since joining the Bears in 2009.
2. Gurley is the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least 85 yards in each of his first five starts.
3. Bears TE Martellus Bennett has caught a touchdown pass in each of his two previous games against St. Louis.
PREDICTION: Rams 22, Bears 19
Preview: New Orleans at Washington
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
Not even the torrid arm of Drew Brees could save the New Orleans Saints last week in an overtime loss to Tennessee. Brees, who has thrown 10 touchdown passes in the past two games, leads the Saints into Washington for a matchup against the Redskins on Sunday afternoon.
Brees started slowly but followed up an NFL record-tying seven-touchdown performance with three more scoring passes last week. The Saints' porous defense, however, couldn't stop rookie Marcus Mariota from tossing his fourth TD of the game in overtime on the way to a 34-28 victory. Washington is still alive in the NFC East Division, trailing the Giants by just 1 1/2 games. The Redskins are 3-1 at home this season and are coming off a 27-10 loss at New England a week ago.
TV: FOX, 1 p.m., ET. LINE: Saints -1. O/U: 50.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-5): Brees, who was beaten up by the Titans last week and needed stitches in his face following the game, has proven he is far from the end of the line, leading the league by averaging 345 passing yards a game. The New Orleans defense, however, has surrendered 29.8 points a game and is next to last in the NFL in total yards allowed. Improving wide receiver Willie Snead (41 receptions, 626 yards) is questionable with a knee injury and the Saints are decimated at linebacker, signing veteran James Anderson during the week after three linebackers missed last week's game.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-5): In the final year of his contract, Kirk Cousins has become the clear No. 1 quarterback but his performance down the stretch will probably determine if the Redskins re-sign him. Cousins' major flaw has been an inability to get the ball downfield as Washington ranks 31st in the in league in yards per pass. He's got deep threat DeSean Jackson back in the lineup and super tight end Jordan Reed now healthy, but Washington has gotten little from its running game so the onus remains clearly on Cousins' shoulders.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Washington CB DeAngelo Hall is questionable with a toe injury.
2. New Orleans signed QB Matt Flynn after backup Luke McCown was placed on injured reserve.
3. The Redskins lead the all-time series 16-8 and won the last meeting 40-32 in 2012.
PREDICTION: Redskins 27, Saints 17
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
Not even the torrid arm of Drew Brees could save the New Orleans Saints last week in an overtime loss to Tennessee. Brees, who has thrown 10 touchdown passes in the past two games, leads the Saints into Washington for a matchup against the Redskins on Sunday afternoon.
Brees started slowly but followed up an NFL record-tying seven-touchdown performance with three more scoring passes last week. The Saints' porous defense, however, couldn't stop rookie Marcus Mariota from tossing his fourth TD of the game in overtime on the way to a 34-28 victory. Washington is still alive in the NFC East Division, trailing the Giants by just 1 1/2 games. The Redskins are 3-1 at home this season and are coming off a 27-10 loss at New England a week ago.
TV: FOX, 1 p.m., ET. LINE: Saints -1. O/U: 50.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-5): Brees, who was beaten up by the Titans last week and needed stitches in his face following the game, has proven he is far from the end of the line, leading the league by averaging 345 passing yards a game. The New Orleans defense, however, has surrendered 29.8 points a game and is next to last in the NFL in total yards allowed. Improving wide receiver Willie Snead (41 receptions, 626 yards) is questionable with a knee injury and the Saints are decimated at linebacker, signing veteran James Anderson during the week after three linebackers missed last week's game.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-5): In the final year of his contract, Kirk Cousins has become the clear No. 1 quarterback but his performance down the stretch will probably determine if the Redskins re-sign him. Cousins' major flaw has been an inability to get the ball downfield as Washington ranks 31st in the in league in yards per pass. He's got deep threat DeSean Jackson back in the lineup and super tight end Jordan Reed now healthy, but Washington has gotten little from its running game so the onus remains clearly on Cousins' shoulders.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Washington CB DeAngelo Hall is questionable with a toe injury.
2. New Orleans signed QB Matt Flynn after backup Luke McCown was placed on injured reserve.
3. The Redskins lead the all-time series 16-8 and won the last meeting 40-32 in 2012.
PREDICTION: Redskins 27, Saints 17
Preview: Miami at Philadelphia
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews look to exploit one of the league's worst rush defenses when the Philadelphia Eagles vie for their fourth win in five outings on Sunday against the visiting Miami Dolphins. Murray rushed for 83 of his season-high 161 total yards and found the end zone in Philadelphia's 33-27 overtime victory over Dallas last Sunday.
"We're getting that swagger going," said Mathews, who added 67 yards on the ground and a score versus the Cowboys to move the Eagles within a half-game of the NFC East-leading New York Giants. Miami was a trendy pick to make some noise this season, but the Dolphins have answered a two-game winning streak with two straight losses against AFC East rivals New England and Buffalo to fall into the division's basement. Stopping the run has been a difficult task for the Dolphins, who permitted a whopping 266 yards on the ground with three scores en route to a convincing 33-17 setback to the Bills. Miami has allowed a staggering 142.1 rushing yards per contest this season, second only to Cleveland (147.6).
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Eagles -6.5. O/U: 47.5
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-5): Lamar Miller has bounced back from a terrible start to the season, recording six touchdowns in the last four games while amassing a career-high seven receptions for 97 yards last week. Rookie Jay Ajayi had a strong season debut last week with 41 yards, and his power running could provide a nice balance with Miller's speed. Jarvis Landry had a season-high 11 catches last week to increase his team-leading total to 53, although fellow wideout Rishard Matthews has accumulated more yards (554-535).
ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-4): Jordan Matthews grabbed a 41-yard touchdown reception in overtime last week to cap a nine-catch, 133-yard performance. Sam Bradford completed 25-of-36 passes for 295 yards, marking his third-highest total of the season. Bradford could be aided greatly by the return of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters (pinched nerve), who told reporters he is "about 50/50" to play on Sunday.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Philadelphia S Malcolm Jenkins told reporters on Thursday that he played much of last week's game with a concussion. An NFL spokesman said the league confirmed that the Eagles were unaware of the situation involving Jenkins, who is in line to play on Sunday.
2. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has failed to throw a touchdown pass in each of his last two games after recording four in a 44-26 victory over Houston on Oct. 25.
3. Dolphins offensive coordinator Bill Lazor served as the QBs coach for Philadelphia in 2013.
PREDICTION: Eagles 26, Dolphins 17
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews look to exploit one of the league's worst rush defenses when the Philadelphia Eagles vie for their fourth win in five outings on Sunday against the visiting Miami Dolphins. Murray rushed for 83 of his season-high 161 total yards and found the end zone in Philadelphia's 33-27 overtime victory over Dallas last Sunday.
"We're getting that swagger going," said Mathews, who added 67 yards on the ground and a score versus the Cowboys to move the Eagles within a half-game of the NFC East-leading New York Giants. Miami was a trendy pick to make some noise this season, but the Dolphins have answered a two-game winning streak with two straight losses against AFC East rivals New England and Buffalo to fall into the division's basement. Stopping the run has been a difficult task for the Dolphins, who permitted a whopping 266 yards on the ground with three scores en route to a convincing 33-17 setback to the Bills. Miami has allowed a staggering 142.1 rushing yards per contest this season, second only to Cleveland (147.6).
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Eagles -6.5. O/U: 47.5
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-5): Lamar Miller has bounced back from a terrible start to the season, recording six touchdowns in the last four games while amassing a career-high seven receptions for 97 yards last week. Rookie Jay Ajayi had a strong season debut last week with 41 yards, and his power running could provide a nice balance with Miller's speed. Jarvis Landry had a season-high 11 catches last week to increase his team-leading total to 53, although fellow wideout Rishard Matthews has accumulated more yards (554-535).
ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-4): Jordan Matthews grabbed a 41-yard touchdown reception in overtime last week to cap a nine-catch, 133-yard performance. Sam Bradford completed 25-of-36 passes for 295 yards, marking his third-highest total of the season. Bradford could be aided greatly by the return of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters (pinched nerve), who told reporters he is "about 50/50" to play on Sunday.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Philadelphia S Malcolm Jenkins told reporters on Thursday that he played much of last week's game with a concussion. An NFL spokesman said the league confirmed that the Eagles were unaware of the situation involving Jenkins, who is in line to play on Sunday.
2. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has failed to throw a touchdown pass in each of his last two games after recording four in a 44-26 victory over Houston on Oct. 25.
3. Dolphins offensive coordinator Bill Lazor served as the QBs coach for Philadelphia in 2013.
PREDICTION: Eagles 26, Dolphins 17
Preview: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ once-promising season is being threatened again due to an injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Backup Landry Jones likely will get the start when the Steelers host another team with quarterback questions in the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
Roethlisberger, who missed four weeks due to a knee injury earlier in the season, was expected to miss a few weeks following a mid-foot sprain suffered in last week’s 38-35 win over the Oakland Raiders but participated in Thursday's practice on a limited basis and hopes to play against Cleveland. "My goal is always to try to get better as fast as possible," Roethlisberger told reporters. "If I'm feeling good enough and the coach determines I'm good enough to be out there on Sunday, then that's the goal." The Browns are giving Johnny Manziel first-team snaps in practice this week, but coach Mike Pettine plans to start Josh McCown (ribs) if healthy. "Josh McCown started the season as our No. 1 quarterback," Pettine said. "He's been out due to injury and potentially is coming back. I get the call for, 'Hey, why not (Manziel)?' We're tasked as coaches to put the roster out there that gives us the best hope to win."
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Steelers -4.5. O/U: 41
ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-7): McCown began throwing in practice this week for the first time since suffering the injury on Nov. 1 against Arizona. "I threw the ball around a little bit," McCown said. "Just trying to gauge how that feels and how my body responds to that." Manziel got the start last week at Cincinnati and completed 15-of-33 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown in a 31-10 loss – Cleveland’s fourth straight setback and third in a row by at least two touchdowns.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-4): Pittsburgh fell out of the race for the AFC North title with a loss to the Bengals two weeks ago but remains in position for a wild-card slot if Jones can make a leap in what would be his second career start. The Oklahoma product threw a pair of interceptions in a loss at Kansas City in his first start on Oct. 25 but went 4-of-6 for 79 yards in relief of Roethlisberger last week. “You can’t overthink things," Jones told reporters. "You have to go out there and play and make plays within the offense. Kansas City game, I was trying to do too much. You just have to go out there and play."
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Steelers have won eight of the last 10 in the series and are 13-3 against the Browns during coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure.
2. Cleveland WR Travis Benjamin has been kept out of the end zone in six straight games.
3. Pittsburgh RB DeAngelo Williams totaled 225 yards from scrimmage last week but is questionable due to a swollen foot.
PREDICTION: Steelers 28, Browns 13
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 15, 2015
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ once-promising season is being threatened again due to an injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Backup Landry Jones likely will get the start when the Steelers host another team with quarterback questions in the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
Roethlisberger, who missed four weeks due to a knee injury earlier in the season, was expected to miss a few weeks following a mid-foot sprain suffered in last week’s 38-35 win over the Oakland Raiders but participated in Thursday's practice on a limited basis and hopes to play against Cleveland. "My goal is always to try to get better as fast as possible," Roethlisberger told reporters. "If I'm feeling good enough and the coach determines I'm good enough to be out there on Sunday, then that's the goal." The Browns are giving Johnny Manziel first-team snaps in practice this week, but coach Mike Pettine plans to start Josh McCown (ribs) if healthy. "Josh McCown started the season as our No. 1 quarterback," Pettine said. "He's been out due to injury and potentially is coming back. I get the call for, 'Hey, why not (Manziel)?' We're tasked as coaches to put the roster out there that gives us the best hope to win."
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Steelers -4.5. O/U: 41
ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-7): McCown began throwing in practice this week for the first time since suffering the injury on Nov. 1 against Arizona. "I threw the ball around a little bit," McCown said. "Just trying to gauge how that feels and how my body responds to that." Manziel got the start last week at Cincinnati and completed 15-of-33 passes for 168 yards and one touchdown in a 31-10 loss – Cleveland’s fourth straight setback and third in a row by at least two touchdowns.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-4): Pittsburgh fell out of the race for the AFC North title with a loss to the Bengals two weeks ago but remains in position for a wild-card slot if Jones can make a leap in what would be his second career start. The Oklahoma product threw a pair of interceptions in a loss at Kansas City in his first start on Oct. 25 but went 4-of-6 for 79 yards in relief of Roethlisberger last week. “You can’t overthink things," Jones told reporters. "You have to go out there and play and make plays within the offense. Kansas City game, I was trying to do too much. You just have to go out there and play."
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Steelers have won eight of the last 10 in the series and are 13-3 against the Browns during coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure.
2. Cleveland WR Travis Benjamin has been kept out of the end zone in six straight games.
3. Pittsburgh RB DeAngelo Williams totaled 225 yards from scrimmage last week but is questionable due to a swollen foot.
PREDICTION: Steelers 28, Browns 13
