Sharp Bowl Plays for 2008-2009 (174-125-7 $6,561.43)

Search
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
free money:

WSEX: Maryland +2.5 +105
Matchbook: Nevada -2.5 +103



Once I hit it then it moved so never mind haha
 
Last edited:
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
Those that may be wondering

Auburn made a good hire in Malzahn

By Tony Barnhart | Monday, December 29, 2008, 08:25 AM

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Hope everybody had a great Christmas! It’s good to be back because we have a lot to discuss between now and the BCS championship game on Jan. 8.

Let’s start with this. We are through the first week of the bowl season. What have we learned?

1. Gene Chizik made a good hire in Gus Malzahn: The Auburn family is clearly divided over the hiring of Chizik as the Tigers’ new head coach. So how do you bring the family back together? You hire assistants to get the family excited again. Chizik made a run at Georgia offensive line coach Stacy Searels, an Auburn grad and one of the best in the business. Searels decided to stay put. But Chizik scored with the hiring of Gus Malzahn as Auburn’s new offensive coordinator. Malzahn comes from Tulsa where his offense this season was second only to Oklahoma in scoring, averaging over 47 points per game. Malzahn was a very successful high school coach in Arkansas who had a cup of coffee with the Razorbacks before getting sideways with head coach Houston Nutt. Now Malzahn comes back to the SEC with a chance to coach against Arkansas AND Nutt, who is now at Ole Miss.

How is this different from the hire of spread guru Tony Franklin, you ask? Simple. Malzahn will start with an offensive staff that has already bought into his system. That was not the case with Franklin at Auburn.

FYI. Malzahn will coach the Tulsa offense in the GMAC Bowl on Jan. 6.



Note: Had this not be the case I would've upgraded Ball State
 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
If Nevada wins first half and game I am going to unload on the Ducks. Bellotti's last game as a head coach. Maybe?

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="940"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td align="left">
<table id="topTools" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td>Oregon names Kelly as Bellotti's eventual successor</td></tr></tbody></table><!--startclickprintexclude--><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" height="25"><tbody><tr><td class="datestamp">Updated<script type="text/javascript">document.write(niceDate('12/2/2008 8:19 PM'));</script> 12/2/2008 8:19 PM | Comments 7 | Recommend 3</td><td align="right"><!-- EdSysObj ID="SSI-B" FRAGMENTID="13417811" rberthol -->E-mail | Save | Print |<script type="text/javascript"><!--var tempshowReprintSSI = "";if(window.showReprintSSI){tempshowReprintSSI = showReprintSSI;} if ((navigator.os.indexOf("Mac")==1) && (navigator.type==2)) { // macIE if((document.forms.hiddenValForm.hiddenMacPrintValue.value == "0") || (document.forms.hiddenValForm.hiddenMacPrintValue.value=="2")) { if(document.forms.hiddenValForm.hiddenMacPrintValue.value == "2"){ document.forms.hiddenValForm.hiddenMacPrintValue.value = "0"; } else{ document.forms.hiddenValForm.hiddenMacPrintValue.value = "1"; } if(tempshowReprintSSI == 'showReprintSSI'){ writeReprintLink(); } writeSubscribeToLink(); } else { document.forms.hiddenValForm.hiddenMacPrintValue.value = "2"; } } else {// non macIE - write top and bottom if(tempshowReprintSSI == 'showReprintSSI'){ writeReprintLink(); } writeSubscribeToLink(); } function writeReprintLink(){ document.write('Reprints & Permissions | '); } function writeSubscribeToLink(){ var url = document.location.toString(); var urlArray = url.split("/") var nurl = ""; for (i = 3; i < urlArray.length - 1; i++) { if(i<urlArray.length-2){ nurl += urlArray + "|"; } else { nurl += urlArray; } } document.write(' '); }//--> </script> <!-- /EdSysObj --> </td></tr></tbody></table><!--endclickprintexclude-->


<!--startclickprintexclude--></td></tr><tr><td align="left" valign="top"><table style="float: left;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td>

</td></tr></tbody></table><!--endclickprintexclude--><!-- EdSysObj ID="SandboxLede" FRAGMENTID="33442036" aterjima --><!--endclickprintexclude--><script type="text/javascript">var storyURL = "http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/pac10/2008-12-02-oregon-kelly_N.htm";var storyTitle = "Oregon names Kelly as Bellotti's eventual successor";</script><!-- EdSysObj ID="SSI-A" FRAGMENTID="30348882" mharzall --><!--startclickprintexclude--><!-- Top Social Buttons --><script type="text/javascript">var yahooBuzzArticleId = 'usatoday:'+storyURL+'?csp=34';var yahooBuzzBadgeType = 'text';var sclListTop = "";sclListTop +='';sclListTop +='
  • ';sclListTop +='
    • ';sclListTop +='
      ';sclListTop +='
      owts.gif
      ';sclListTop +='
    • <!-- this element will be replaced -->';sclListTop +='
    • Digg';//sclListTop +='
    • del.icio.us';sclListTop +='
    • Newsvine';sclListTop +='
    • Reddit';sclListTop +='
    • Facebook';sclListTop +='
    • What\'s this?';sclListTop +='
    ';sclListTop +='
';sclListTop +='
';sclListTop +='
';document.write(sclListTop);</script>


<script src="http://d.yimg.com/ds/badge.js" ____yb="1"></script><!--endclickprintexclude--><!-- /EdSysObj -->EUGENE, Ore. (AP) — Oregon picked offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to be head coach Mike Bellotti's eventual successor, though school officials did not say when that will happen.
Bellotti will become the school's athletic director when he steps down. He said Tuesday he will coach the Ducks in their bowl game and continue to recruit.
Asked if he would step down after this season, Bellotti told reporters during a conference call he didn't think so.
"It could be a year, it could be more," he said. "I don't know."

Bellotti is 115-55 in 14 seasons at Oregon and has taken the Ducks to 12 bowl games. The Ducks are 9-3 this season. He is currently the longest tenured coach in the Pacific-10 Conference.
Kelly becomes the latest coach-in-waiting, a trend in major college football these days. Texas recently announced defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will eventually replace Mack Brown. Florida State, Kentucky and Purdue have all made similar moves in the last two seasons.
FIND MORE STORIES IN: Oregon | Kentucky | New Hampshire | Syracuse | Purdue | Ducks | Mack Brown | University of Oregon | Pacific-10 Conference | Mike Bellotti | Will Muschamp | McArthur Court | Pat Kilkenny | Chip Kelly
The "succession plan" released by the university come amid reports that Kelly was to be interviewed by Syracuse for its head coaching position.
"I will not speak to any other schools. I'm a Duck," he said.
Kelly has been offensive coordinator at Oregon the past two seasons, running a spread-option offense. The Ducks are ranked fourth in the nation in rushing, averaging 277.8 yards a game, and are eighth in total offense with 467.2 yards a game.
Before Oregon, Kelly was offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at New Hampshire for eight seasons.
Bellotti would replace Pat Kilkenny as AD, who took over in February 2007 and said at the time he planned to serve in that position for two years.
A prominent booster, Kilkenny has spearhead plans to build a new basketball arena that would replace venerable McArthur Court.
"Pat has accomplished an extraordinary amount in the time he has been at the University of Oregon," university President Dave Frohnmayer said. "My goal is to establish a plan for an orderly transition so when he leaves, the athletics department will be able to continue to thrive."
</td></tr></tbody></table><!-- EdSysObj ID="search" FRAGMENTID="13384390" scrow --><!-- EdSysObj ID="SSI-B" FRAGMENTID="13480966" rberthol --><!--</div>-->





One of the many angles I like going into this game. :toast:
 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens

2* Oregon +3.5 -110: Why I like it: Chip's rushing attack vs Pokes vulnerable front 7. Concerns: Defense
.7* Pokes +3 +100 (downgraded)
.25* Nevada -1.5 -110 (WSEX)
.15* Nevada -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
.15* Nevada -2 -105 (Legendz)
.25* Nevada PK -123 1st half (5 dimes) (.50* 2nd half if it loses)
.10* Rice -1 -115 1st half (5 dimes) (.20* 2nd half if it loses)






Adding:


.35* Oregon +1 -110 1st half
.70* Oregon 2nd half if 1st half loses
 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens

I'm canceling 2nd half play on Nevada. QB injury and line domination is my reasoning.

2* Oregon +3.5 -110: Why I like it: Chip's rushing attack vs Pokes vulnerable front 7. Concerns: Defense
.7* Pokes +3 +100 (downgraded)

.35* Oregon +1 -110 1st half
.25* Nevada -1.5 -110 (WSEX)
.15* Nevada -1 -110 (Bookmaker)
.15* Nevada -2 -105 (Legendz)
.25* Nevada PK -123 1st half (5 dimes)
.10* Rice -1 -115 1st half (5 dimes) (.20* 2nd half if it loses)





 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
Canceling Rice play

Today's results: 0-2 -.87 (all juice added)

BTD: 4-6 -2.114
1.3* Oregon +3.5 -110
.35* Oregon +1 -110 1st half
.70* Oregon 2nd half if 1st half loses



GL







 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
Had I stuck to my initial plan

Unit values for Bowl Season:

3* $600 2* $400 1* $200 .5* $100​

3* Ole Miss +7 -110
2* Arizona -3 -110 Win +2
2* Georgia Tech -2.5
2* Oregon +3.5 Win +2
1.5* TCU -1.5 -110 Loss -1.65
1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110
1* Navy +3.5 Loss -1.1
1* GA -6 -110 (Bookmaker) (I'll play it for .5* at -7) (no play at -7.5 or up)
1* Iowa -3 -110 (no play at -3.5 or higher)
1* BC -3 (.5* BC -3.5 till -5.5) (no play at -6 or higher)
.5* Hawaii -1.5 Loss -.55
.5* Penn State +10.5
.5* Oregon State -3 -105 (Greek) (no play at -3.5 or higher)
.5* UNC Loss -.55
.25* FSU -4.5 -110 Won +.25

Was wondering how well I'll be doing if I stuck to the initial plan.


I'll be up +0.4 instead down -0.499 (remember two brutal beats with Navy +3.5 and getting TCU -1.5 and not PK which were a 4* swing. Would had been up 4.4*)


These were my first plays and I sense adjusted, downgraded, added, and attempted some middles.

After having over 5 hours of conversations with some pretty sharp handicappers and reading over 2 hours worth of material I finally feel fairly confident with this whole bowl thing. Its apparent to me that motivation, match ups, value, coaching, and QB play should continue to be my primary focus. Also injuries, suspensions, and coaching departures (Hoke being an example) are critical elements that one needs to stay on top of....
 
Last edited:
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
Btd: 6-6 -0.499*

3* Ole Miss +7 -110
1.5* Texas Tech -4.5 -101 (Matchbook)
0.1* Texas Tech -4.5 +101 (Matchbook)
2* Georgia Tech -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
.7* LSU +3.5 +103 (Matchbook)
.3* LSU +4 +100 (5Dimes)
1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
.8* Tulsa +2.5 -101 (downgraded)
1* Iowa -3 -110 (Bookmaker)
1* BC -3 -110 (BM)
.3* Vandy +3 +105 (5 Dimes)
1* Nebraska +3 -110 (Betonline)
.3* Clemson -3 +105 (Bodog)
1* GA -6 -110 (Bookmaker):
.3* Michigan State +7.5 -101 (Matchbook)
.1* Michigan State +7.5 -104 (Matchbook)
.5* Penn State +10.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
.15* USC -9 -101 (Matchbook)
.05* USC -9 +105 (Matchbook)
.5* Oregon State -3 -105 (Greek)
.5* Oregon State -3 +102 (Matchbook)
.1* Oregon State -1.5 -103 (5 Dimes)
.65* Pitt +3 -115 (downgraded)
.10* Oklahoma +3 +112 (Matchbook)





If I can get Oregon State at a better price I'll upgrade some more.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2008
Messages
8,985
Tokens
VOR - what do you think about the first game tomorrow? i took houston at -2 for the first half...believing that they come out on fire at home. also have pitt at a moneyline with jacquizz rogers and his brother out tomorrow for oregon state...
 

Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2008
Messages
8,985
Tokens
just noticed you have oregon state and thinking to upgrade...even with both rogers' out?? i don't think oregon state can beat pitt solely with the passing game, as jacq is majority of their offense.
 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
Nice work Voice. Any leans or early plays for tomorrow?



I like Oregon State small. Can't play them big without two of there key components on offense. Having said that I think they match up favorable and I'm sticking to my instincts with this one. These are two teams I have a good feel for (Pitt more so than Oregon State) and I see the beavers winning this game 6 out 10 times. With the Rodgers kids I can easily see them winning 7 out 10.

Boston College small as well with the QB concerns. The more I read about there QB the more I don't like. Having seen him play personally in the VTech game I have to say that I'm not entirely impressed. Think BC wins close so I will continue to downgrade that play.

Think Air Force and Houston is a coin flip. I have a lean to Air Force but I'm not a big fan of this team this year so I'll pass.

Would like to take Minnesota but I think NW is better than Minnesota and Mangino/Reesing scare me more than Daniel/Pinkel. So in essence what I'm saying is that if I didn't play NW (which I should have) I won't be playing Minnesota. Makes sense? Didn't think so :drink:
 

Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2008
Messages
8,985
Tokens
I like Oregon State small. Can't play them big without two of there key components on offense. Having said that I think they match up favorable and I'm sticking to my instincts with this one. These are two teams I have a good feel for (Pitt more so than Oregon State) and I see the beavers winning this game 6 out 10 times. With the Rodgers kids I can easily see them winning 7 out 10.

confused...you're saying that the rodgers brothers only play a factor in one out of ten games??? that's what it looks like lol - i see jacq accounting for like 50+% of the offense
 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
just noticed you have oregon state and thinking to upgrade...even with both rogers' out?? i don't think oregon state can beat pitt solely with the passing game, as jacq is majority of their offense.


What I like?

Stash vs Riley (Expect Riley to pass early to set up the run)
Stull vs Moevao (who do you want throwing in a 3rd and 5)
Motivated Beavers
"Nothing is going to erase the taste of what happened against Oregon, but we're all excited to play this game. I don't want to end my career with two losses in a row." " Oregon State middle linebacker Bryant Cornell
#1 passing offense in the Pac-10 against Pitt's secondary



Line play in this game is key. I think they Beavers are rested and will show up.

GL



 
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
15,518
Tokens
confused...you're saying that the rodgers brothers only play a factor in one out of ten games??? that's what it looks like lol - i see jacq accounting for like 50+% of the offense



Im just saying if these two teams play this game tomorrow 10 times I see State winning 60% (57% to be exact) of the time. If the Rodgers kids play they'll win close to 70%.

Had the Rodgers kids been healthy the line would be -4.5 max....probably -4

two key players that account for a good portion of the offensive production only seems to be worth 2 maybe 3 points in the books eyes. Why do you think that is?

Bottom line without the Rodgers kids there still favorite. Why? Ask yourself that
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,925
Messages
13,575,339
Members
100,883
Latest member
iniesta2025
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com