You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Service Plays Wednesday 9/17/08
- Thread starter Can'tPickaWinner2
- Start date
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report
2 STAR SELECTION
LOUISVILLE +4 over Kansas State
The Wildcats make their first road trip of the season when they take on the Cardinals in a Wednesday night game on ESPN 2.
Kansas State comes into this one 2-0 after blowing out 2 clearly inferior teams in Montana State and North Texas. The Wildcats have been able to do what just about whatever they want on both sides of the ball in the early going. Now, they make a huge step up in competition.
After a terrible loss to rival Kentucky to start the season, the Cardinals came storming back with a 51-10 rout of Tennessee Tech last week. Heading into this season, the team had dropped the game following a loss to Kentucky four of the last five times. Last season's team fell to a woeful Syracuse squad. But this victory wasn't just a narrow win over a less-powerful squad, it was the blowout victory the team sorely needed to erase the taste of a bitter defeat to an archrival.
Of course, the 1-AA Eagles aren't a very good measuring stick in a lot of ways, and the blowout victory doesn't mean the next stop for the Cardinals is a BCS appearance, but considering that a year ago Louisville followed the Kentucky loss by going into a tailspin that left the team out of the bowl season entirely, it's a good sign for coach Steve Kragthorpe that this year's disappointment proved easier to recover from.
Both coaches and players said that the team came to practice determined to show that it was better than it showed in the season-opening defeat. That mission was accomplished on Saturday.
"Last season, after a loss like that, you'd have seen some heads hanging. But this year everybody was upbeat. We have this thing in the locker room we just want to get better, win, lose or draw." Louisville defensive lineman Earl Heyman told the Louisville Courier-Journal.
Louisville's defense played well again this week and has been very effective for seven of the eight quarters this season. It held the Eagles to 33 yards rushing and put points on the scoreboard for the second week a row with a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
It was the offense that cost the Cardinals the game against the Kentucky Wildcats, and it should be much stronger here against these Wildcats. It’s been several seasons since Louisville has been a home underdog, and they will certainly take notice of the line here. As it is, they are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog since 1998. Meanwhile, Kansas State has little business in this role as they are a horrible 0-7 ATS (-18.4 ppg!) as a road favorite/pick ‘em since 2003.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg as far as ugly numbers go in regards to the visitors here. The Wildcats hosted the Cardinals 2 years ago, and lost SU & ATS as a home dog. They have been absolutely frightening as a road revenger, going 1-10 SU (-20.6 ppg) & 0-11 ATS (-14.7 ppg) on the road seeking revenge for a SU loss of 4+ points since 1995, including 0-6 ATS (-21.8 ppg) under Ron Prince.
Meanwhile, non-Saturday home teams have been tremendous against non-conference opponents and coming off a non-conference victory. This is detailed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which notes:
Play ON a non-Saturday non-conference home team (not a favorite of 11+ points or underdog of more than 10 points) off a non-OT SU win vs. an opponent off a non-conference game.
Since 2001, these teams are a perfect 11-0 SU & ATS, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average. Louisville qualifies as a PLAY ON team, and we also note that non-Saturday home teams at the right price have successfully used a non-lined home game as a helpful tune-up for the highlighted contest. Non-Saturday home teams (not a favorite of 39+ points or underdog of less than 8 points) off a non-lined home SU win are 8-0 SU & ATS over the past several seasons, beating the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
Finally, we generally look to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
Here, at the numerous sportsbooks we monitor, we have more than 75% of the public bets going for the Wildcats. We’ll gladly take the points, fade the public, and back the home underdog Cardinals to at least cover the spread in what looks to be a razor-close contest.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LOUISVILLE 34 KANSAS STATE 33
2 STAR SELECTION
LOUISVILLE +4 over Kansas State
The Wildcats make their first road trip of the season when they take on the Cardinals in a Wednesday night game on ESPN 2.
Kansas State comes into this one 2-0 after blowing out 2 clearly inferior teams in Montana State and North Texas. The Wildcats have been able to do what just about whatever they want on both sides of the ball in the early going. Now, they make a huge step up in competition.
After a terrible loss to rival Kentucky to start the season, the Cardinals came storming back with a 51-10 rout of Tennessee Tech last week. Heading into this season, the team had dropped the game following a loss to Kentucky four of the last five times. Last season's team fell to a woeful Syracuse squad. But this victory wasn't just a narrow win over a less-powerful squad, it was the blowout victory the team sorely needed to erase the taste of a bitter defeat to an archrival.
Of course, the 1-AA Eagles aren't a very good measuring stick in a lot of ways, and the blowout victory doesn't mean the next stop for the Cardinals is a BCS appearance, but considering that a year ago Louisville followed the Kentucky loss by going into a tailspin that left the team out of the bowl season entirely, it's a good sign for coach Steve Kragthorpe that this year's disappointment proved easier to recover from.
Both coaches and players said that the team came to practice determined to show that it was better than it showed in the season-opening defeat. That mission was accomplished on Saturday.
"Last season, after a loss like that, you'd have seen some heads hanging. But this year everybody was upbeat. We have this thing in the locker room we just want to get better, win, lose or draw." Louisville defensive lineman Earl Heyman told the Louisville Courier-Journal.
Louisville's defense played well again this week and has been very effective for seven of the eight quarters this season. It held the Eagles to 33 yards rushing and put points on the scoreboard for the second week a row with a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
It was the offense that cost the Cardinals the game against the Kentucky Wildcats, and it should be much stronger here against these Wildcats. It’s been several seasons since Louisville has been a home underdog, and they will certainly take notice of the line here. As it is, they are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog since 1998. Meanwhile, Kansas State has little business in this role as they are a horrible 0-7 ATS (-18.4 ppg!) as a road favorite/pick ‘em since 2003.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg as far as ugly numbers go in regards to the visitors here. The Wildcats hosted the Cardinals 2 years ago, and lost SU & ATS as a home dog. They have been absolutely frightening as a road revenger, going 1-10 SU (-20.6 ppg) & 0-11 ATS (-14.7 ppg) on the road seeking revenge for a SU loss of 4+ points since 1995, including 0-6 ATS (-21.8 ppg) under Ron Prince.
Meanwhile, non-Saturday home teams have been tremendous against non-conference opponents and coming off a non-conference victory. This is detailed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which notes:
Play ON a non-Saturday non-conference home team (not a favorite of 11+ points or underdog of more than 10 points) off a non-OT SU win vs. an opponent off a non-conference game.
Since 2001, these teams are a perfect 11-0 SU & ATS, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average. Louisville qualifies as a PLAY ON team, and we also note that non-Saturday home teams at the right price have successfully used a non-lined home game as a helpful tune-up for the highlighted contest. Non-Saturday home teams (not a favorite of 39+ points or underdog of less than 8 points) off a non-lined home SU win are 8-0 SU & ATS over the past several seasons, beating the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
Finally, we generally look to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
Here, at the numerous sportsbooks we monitor, we have more than 75% of the public bets going for the Wildcats. We’ll gladly take the points, fade the public, and back the home underdog Cardinals to at least cover the spread in what looks to be a razor-close contest.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LOUISVILLE 34 KANSAS STATE 33
Wed, 09/17/08 - 7:10 PMMarco D'Angelo | MLB Money Line
dime bet974 TAM (-130)BetUS vs 973 BOS
Analysis: PLAY: TAMPA BAY
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY
Tonight I am Betting Tampa Bay as Tampa Bay got the victory last night 2-1 and following a one run victory at home this year Tampa Bay is 14-3 in their next game. Very important game and my money is on the home team team. This is MARCO'S 14-3 BASEBALL POWER PLAY.
dime bet974 TAM (-130)BetUS vs 973 BOS
Analysis: PLAY: TAMPA BAY
RATING: SINGLE DIME PLAY
Tonight I am Betting Tampa Bay as Tampa Bay got the victory last night 2-1 and following a one run victory at home this year Tampa Bay is 14-3 in their next game. Very important game and my money is on the home team team. This is MARCO'S 14-3 BASEBALL POWER PLAY.
Wed, 09/17/08 - 8:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet302 Louisville 4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 301 Kansas St.
Analysis:
Defensive coordinator Ron English's much-improved stop unit will be the difference tonight. I had this line at Louisville -2 but oddsmakers knew the public would be all over Kansas State because the Cards got blown away on national TV in their opener against Kentucky. I like the Cardinals to win easy at home tonight over a Kansas State squad that has struggled badly on the road under Ron Prince. The Ville turns out the lights on Kansas State tonight. **2 UNIT Play**
double-dime bet302 Louisville 4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 301 Kansas St.
Analysis:
Defensive coordinator Ron English's much-improved stop unit will be the difference tonight. I had this line at Louisville -2 but oddsmakers knew the public would be all over Kansas State because the Cards got blown away on national TV in their opener against Kentucky. I like the Cardinals to win easy at home tonight over a Kansas State squad that has struggled badly on the road under Ron Prince. The Ville turns out the lights on Kansas State tonight. **2 UNIT Play**
MY PARTNERS MONEY IS SECURE BUT HE IS VERY IMPATIENT HE WANTS RESULTS IMMEDIATELY I TOLD HIM THATS NOT HOW IT WORKS YOU JUST CAN'T UNLOAD EVERYDAY GOT TO PICK YOUR SPOTS....I'M KILLING THEM IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL THANXS TO THE FORUM SOMETHING LIKE 10-3 BUT THE PRO'S HAS BEEN SPOTTY 2-2 VERY CAUTIOUS WITH THE PRO'S........GAMETIME WINNER AND STEVE BUDIN IS WHO WE CAN TRUST.AND YOU JUST GOT TO KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE WAYNE ALLEN ROOT PLAYS AND THE SEABASS PLAYS:wink:
So who do u trust in gametime winner?
Wed, 09/17/08 - 8:00 PMBob Majors | CFB Side
double-dime bet302 Louisville 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 301 Kansas St.
Analysis:
The Kansas State Wildcats are traveling to the Louisville Cardinals in a Wednesday night matchup.
The Wildcats are 2-0 playing at home against two patsies in Montana State and North Texas State and beating both very easily. The Wildcats have not really been tested as of this season and this is the first game on the road.
Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 1-1 losing to Kentucky and beating a Tennessee Tech squad that was weak. The Cardinal have a good defense and very good against the run. The offense will develop on the fly under first year coordinator and for QB Jeff Brohm.
The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS last 21 games on the road and 1-7 in last 8 road games. The Cards are 22-3 straight up in its last 25 home games.
I like the chances of the Cardinals winning straight up and they are playing with a Home Team crowd.
Take Louisville and the points.
double-dime bet302 Louisville 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 301 Kansas St.
Analysis:
The Kansas State Wildcats are traveling to the Louisville Cardinals in a Wednesday night matchup.
The Wildcats are 2-0 playing at home against two patsies in Montana State and North Texas State and beating both very easily. The Wildcats have not really been tested as of this season and this is the first game on the road.
Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 1-1 losing to Kentucky and beating a Tennessee Tech squad that was weak. The Cardinal have a good defense and very good against the run. The offense will develop on the fly under first year coordinator and for QB Jeff Brohm.
The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS last 21 games on the road and 1-7 in last 8 road games. The Cards are 22-3 straight up in its last 25 home games.
I like the chances of the Cardinals winning straight up and they are playing with a Home Team crowd.
Take Louisville and the points.
