Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report
2 STAR SELECTION
LOUISVILLE +4 over Kansas State
The Wildcats make their first road trip of the season when they take on the Cardinals in a Wednesday night game on ESPN 2.
Kansas State comes into this one 2-0 after blowing out 2 clearly inferior teams in Montana State and North Texas. The Wildcats have been able to do what just about whatever they want on both sides of the ball in the early going. Now, they make a huge step up in competition.
After a terrible loss to rival Kentucky to start the season, the Cardinals came storming back with a 51-10 rout of Tennessee Tech last week. Heading into this season, the team had dropped the game following a loss to Kentucky four of the last five times. Last season's team fell to a woeful Syracuse squad. But this victory wasn't just a narrow win over a less-powerful squad, it was the blowout victory the team sorely needed to erase the taste of a bitter defeat to an archrival.
Of course, the 1-AA Eagles aren't a very good measuring stick in a lot of ways, and the blowout victory doesn't mean the next stop for the Cardinals is a BCS appearance, but considering that a year ago Louisville followed the Kentucky loss by going into a tailspin that left the team out of the bowl season entirely, it's a good sign for coach Steve Kragthorpe that this year's disappointment proved easier to recover from.
Both coaches and players said that the team came to practice determined to show that it was better than it showed in the season-opening defeat. That mission was accomplished on Saturday.
"Last season, after a loss like that, you'd have seen some heads hanging. But this year everybody was upbeat. We have this thing in the locker room we just want to get better, win, lose or draw." Louisville defensive lineman Earl Heyman told the Louisville Courier-Journal.
Louisville's defense played well again this week and has been very effective for seven of the eight quarters this season. It held the Eagles to 33 yards rushing and put points on the scoreboard for the second week a row with a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
It was the offense that cost the Cardinals the game against the Kentucky Wildcats, and it should be much stronger here against these Wildcats. It’s been several seasons since Louisville has been a home underdog, and they will certainly take notice of the line here. As it is, they are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog since 1998. Meanwhile, Kansas State has little business in this role as they are a horrible 0-7 ATS (-18.4 ppg!) as a road favorite/pick ‘em since 2003.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg as far as ugly numbers go in regards to the visitors here. The Wildcats hosted the Cardinals 2 years ago, and lost SU & ATS as a home dog. They have been absolutely frightening as a road revenger, going 1-10 SU (-20.6 ppg) & 0-11 ATS (-14.7 ppg) on the road seeking revenge for a SU loss of 4+ points since 1995, including 0-6 ATS (-21.8 ppg) under Ron Prince.
Meanwhile, non-Saturday home teams have been tremendous against non-conference opponents and coming off a non-conference victory. This is detailed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which notes:
Play ON a non-Saturday non-conference home team (not a favorite of 11+ points or underdog of more than 10 points) off a non-OT SU win vs. an opponent off a non-conference game.
Since 2001, these teams are a perfect 11-0 SU & ATS, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average. Louisville qualifies as a PLAY ON team, and we also note that non-Saturday home teams at the right price have successfully used a non-lined home game as a helpful tune-up for the highlighted contest. Non-Saturday home teams (not a favorite of 39+ points or underdog of less than 8 points) off a non-lined home SU win are 8-0 SU & ATS over the past several seasons, beating the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
Finally, we generally look to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
Here, at the numerous sportsbooks we monitor, we have more than 75% of the public bets going for the Wildcats. We’ll gladly take the points, fade the public, and back the home underdog Cardinals to at least cover the spread in what looks to be a razor-close contest.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LOUISVILLE 34 KANSAS STATE 33
2 STAR SELECTION
LOUISVILLE +4 over Kansas State
The Wildcats make their first road trip of the season when they take on the Cardinals in a Wednesday night game on ESPN 2.
Kansas State comes into this one 2-0 after blowing out 2 clearly inferior teams in Montana State and North Texas. The Wildcats have been able to do what just about whatever they want on both sides of the ball in the early going. Now, they make a huge step up in competition.
After a terrible loss to rival Kentucky to start the season, the Cardinals came storming back with a 51-10 rout of Tennessee Tech last week. Heading into this season, the team had dropped the game following a loss to Kentucky four of the last five times. Last season's team fell to a woeful Syracuse squad. But this victory wasn't just a narrow win over a less-powerful squad, it was the blowout victory the team sorely needed to erase the taste of a bitter defeat to an archrival.
Of course, the 1-AA Eagles aren't a very good measuring stick in a lot of ways, and the blowout victory doesn't mean the next stop for the Cardinals is a BCS appearance, but considering that a year ago Louisville followed the Kentucky loss by going into a tailspin that left the team out of the bowl season entirely, it's a good sign for coach Steve Kragthorpe that this year's disappointment proved easier to recover from.
Both coaches and players said that the team came to practice determined to show that it was better than it showed in the season-opening defeat. That mission was accomplished on Saturday.
"Last season, after a loss like that, you'd have seen some heads hanging. But this year everybody was upbeat. We have this thing in the locker room we just want to get better, win, lose or draw." Louisville defensive lineman Earl Heyman told the Louisville Courier-Journal.
Louisville's defense played well again this week and has been very effective for seven of the eight quarters this season. It held the Eagles to 33 yards rushing and put points on the scoreboard for the second week a row with a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
It was the offense that cost the Cardinals the game against the Kentucky Wildcats, and it should be much stronger here against these Wildcats. It’s been several seasons since Louisville has been a home underdog, and they will certainly take notice of the line here. As it is, they are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog since 1998. Meanwhile, Kansas State has little business in this role as they are a horrible 0-7 ATS (-18.4 ppg!) as a road favorite/pick ‘em since 2003.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg as far as ugly numbers go in regards to the visitors here. The Wildcats hosted the Cardinals 2 years ago, and lost SU & ATS as a home dog. They have been absolutely frightening as a road revenger, going 1-10 SU (-20.6 ppg) & 0-11 ATS (-14.7 ppg) on the road seeking revenge for a SU loss of 4+ points since 1995, including 0-6 ATS (-21.8 ppg) under Ron Prince.
Meanwhile, non-Saturday home teams have been tremendous against non-conference opponents and coming off a non-conference victory. This is detailed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which notes:
Play ON a non-Saturday non-conference home team (not a favorite of 11+ points or underdog of more than 10 points) off a non-OT SU win vs. an opponent off a non-conference game.
Since 2001, these teams are a perfect 11-0 SU & ATS, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average. Louisville qualifies as a PLAY ON team, and we also note that non-Saturday home teams at the right price have successfully used a non-lined home game as a helpful tune-up for the highlighted contest. Non-Saturday home teams (not a favorite of 39+ points or underdog of less than 8 points) off a non-lined home SU win are 8-0 SU & ATS over the past several seasons, beating the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
Finally, we generally look to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
Here, at the numerous sportsbooks we monitor, we have more than 75% of the public bets going for the Wildcats. We’ll gladly take the points, fade the public, and back the home underdog Cardinals to at least cover the spread in what looks to be a razor-close contest.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LOUISVILLE 34 KANSAS STATE 33
