Wed, 09/17/08 - 7:10 PMAndre Gomes | MLB Total
double-dime bet962 WAS / 961 NYM Over 9 Bookmaker
Analysis: The Mets who had a good advantage of 3 games over the Phillies in the NL East lead have suddenly stopped playing baseball by losing 4 of their last 5 games and they are now once again behind the Phillies and with a little advantage over the Brewers in the fight for the NL Wildcard. Yesterday the team went scoreless with just .133 BA and .295 OPS! Terrible numbers for a team which is trying to reach the postseason. Today I expect a bounce back from the offense of the Mets, as the spot is much different. In the two defeats of the Mets, they face 2 pitchers who are in a good moment and are able to go deep into the games, while making good quality starts. That was the case of Lannan and Perez yesterday. Today the scenario will be much different.
The Nationals will send Shairon Martis, who will make his third start for the Nats. Martis allowed 2 runs in each game, while pitching for 5 innings in both outings against the Braves and the Marlins. However there are some details that shows us that under pressure, Martis will struggle a lot. The truth is that Marquis allowed 5 walks against the Braves and 3 walks against the Marlins. Take also note that from the first game to the second, he had 7 days of rest and for this game he had just 4 days and on his last outing against the Marlins, he threw more than 100 pitches, in an high count number game. So, I expect the offense of the Mets to take advantage of this, especially as they are 20-11 Over after scoring 2 runs or less this season.
On the other side, I also expect the Nationals to be better offensively today. First of all, the team isn't the same weak offensive club that they were a couple of months ago. Just look that even though they are 2-5 in their last 7 games, they averaged 5.1 runs and .354 BA! Today the Mets will send Brandon Michael Knight, who has just made one outing this season as a SP, in July, where he allowed 4 runs and 7 hits in 5 innings against the Cardinals. After this outing, he has played as a reliever in 2 outings and as a matter of fact, on his last outing, he faced the Nationals, where he struggled a lot in just 1 inning, allowing 1 run and 1 walk, while needing 24 pitches to close the inning! So, I also expect Knight to struggle today and the Nationals should be able to take advantage of this.
The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 Games of the Nationals in a Game 3 of a series and 7-2-1 in the Nats last 10 home games. It's also curious to see that Washington is 10-1 Over in home games after allowing 2 runs or less in two straight games over the last 3 seasons. I expect a game with a lot of runs, as the team won't have good pitchers on the field and the fact that the two previous games of this series have been such low scoring affairs has sent this line from 9,5 to 9 runs, which gave a lot more value than the line had when it was opened. On my research, I've also found out a really interesting trend for the over:
All teams where the total is 9 to 9,5 and are off from 2 straight upset wins over division rivals as a home underdog and have just won 38% to 46% of their games on the season are 31-9 Over since 1997.
So, I'm taking the over in here. Double Dime Play
double-dime bet962 WAS / 961 NYM Over 9 Bookmaker
Analysis: The Mets who had a good advantage of 3 games over the Phillies in the NL East lead have suddenly stopped playing baseball by losing 4 of their last 5 games and they are now once again behind the Phillies and with a little advantage over the Brewers in the fight for the NL Wildcard. Yesterday the team went scoreless with just .133 BA and .295 OPS! Terrible numbers for a team which is trying to reach the postseason. Today I expect a bounce back from the offense of the Mets, as the spot is much different. In the two defeats of the Mets, they face 2 pitchers who are in a good moment and are able to go deep into the games, while making good quality starts. That was the case of Lannan and Perez yesterday. Today the scenario will be much different.
The Nationals will send Shairon Martis, who will make his third start for the Nats. Martis allowed 2 runs in each game, while pitching for 5 innings in both outings against the Braves and the Marlins. However there are some details that shows us that under pressure, Martis will struggle a lot. The truth is that Marquis allowed 5 walks against the Braves and 3 walks against the Marlins. Take also note that from the first game to the second, he had 7 days of rest and for this game he had just 4 days and on his last outing against the Marlins, he threw more than 100 pitches, in an high count number game. So, I expect the offense of the Mets to take advantage of this, especially as they are 20-11 Over after scoring 2 runs or less this season.
On the other side, I also expect the Nationals to be better offensively today. First of all, the team isn't the same weak offensive club that they were a couple of months ago. Just look that even though they are 2-5 in their last 7 games, they averaged 5.1 runs and .354 BA! Today the Mets will send Brandon Michael Knight, who has just made one outing this season as a SP, in July, where he allowed 4 runs and 7 hits in 5 innings against the Cardinals. After this outing, he has played as a reliever in 2 outings and as a matter of fact, on his last outing, he faced the Nationals, where he struggled a lot in just 1 inning, allowing 1 run and 1 walk, while needing 24 pitches to close the inning! So, I also expect Knight to struggle today and the Nationals should be able to take advantage of this.
The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 Games of the Nationals in a Game 3 of a series and 7-2-1 in the Nats last 10 home games. It's also curious to see that Washington is 10-1 Over in home games after allowing 2 runs or less in two straight games over the last 3 seasons. I expect a game with a lot of runs, as the team won't have good pitchers on the field and the fact that the two previous games of this series have been such low scoring affairs has sent this line from 9,5 to 9 runs, which gave a lot more value than the line had when it was opened. On my research, I've also found out a really interesting trend for the over:
All teams where the total is 9 to 9,5 and are off from 2 straight upset wins over division rivals as a home underdog and have just won 38% to 46% of their games on the season are 31-9 Over since 1997.
So, I'm taking the over in here. Double Dime Play
Mr A's
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008 7:05 PM EST.
Los Angeles Dodgers (79-72) at Pittsburgh Pirates (63-88)
(R) Chad Billingsley (15-10) vs. (L) Zach Duke (5-14)
Los Angeles's Chad Billingsley (15-10, 3.02 ERA),is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.22 ERA In five career starts against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh's Zach Duke (5-14, 4.84), is 1-2 with a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts. The lefthander is 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers
The Dodgers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games and have won six of their last eight games on the road. Meanwhile the struggling Pirates have lost 19 of their last 25 games and 12 of its last 16 at home.
Take the Dodgers. Pittsburgh has dropped six of the last seven versus Los Angeles at home and Zach Duke is 0-6 with a 6.75 ERA in his last six starts at PNC Park.
Los Angeles Dodgers -175
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008 7:05 PM EST.
Los Angeles Dodgers (79-72) at Pittsburgh Pirates (63-88)
(R) Chad Billingsley (15-10) vs. (L) Zach Duke (5-14)
Los Angeles's Chad Billingsley (15-10, 3.02 ERA),is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.22 ERA In five career starts against the Pirates.
Pittsburgh's Zach Duke (5-14, 4.84), is 1-2 with a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts. The lefthander is 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers
The Dodgers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games and have won six of their last eight games on the road. Meanwhile the struggling Pirates have lost 19 of their last 25 games and 12 of its last 16 at home.
Take the Dodgers. Pittsburgh has dropped six of the last seven versus Los Angeles at home and Zach Duke is 0-6 with a 6.75 ERA in his last six starts at PNC Park.
Los Angeles Dodgers -175
JB's Computer Plays
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Time Game Selections
7:05 p.m. Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
(R) Scott Baker (9-4) vs. (L) Cliff Lee (22-2) Cleveland Indians -165
7:10 p.m. Houston Astros at Florida Marlins
(R) Brandon Backe (9-12) vs. (R) Ricky Nolasco (14-7) Florida Marlins -165
9:40 p.m. San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
(L) Jonathan Sanchez (9-10) vs. (R) Brandon Webb (20-7) Arizona Diamondbacks -210 *
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Time Game Selections
7:05 p.m. Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
(R) Scott Baker (9-4) vs. (L) Cliff Lee (22-2) Cleveland Indians -165
7:10 p.m. Houston Astros at Florida Marlins
(R) Brandon Backe (9-12) vs. (R) Ricky Nolasco (14-7) Florida Marlins -165
9:40 p.m. San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
(L) Jonathan Sanchez (9-10) vs. (R) Brandon Webb (20-7) Arizona Diamondbacks -210 *
LARRY COOK
3* on Baltimore Orioles +162
(Action)
26-year-old Brian Bass has been solid this season with a 4.84 ERA. He makes his second start of the season for the Orioles tonight after allowing 1earned run in his first start last week. Toronto was making a run to end the season, but they have cooled off by losing three of their last four contests. Toronto is 19-34 when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles have won back-to-back games now with solid starts from their young pitchers in Rhadamis Liz and Chris Waters, who threw a complete game shutout last night. The Orioles are hoping Bass can continue this trend, and we feel he can. We?ll take a shot on Bass and the Orioles at this great value after winning two in a row. Bet Baltimore on the road
3* on Baltimore Orioles +162
(Action)
26-year-old Brian Bass has been solid this season with a 4.84 ERA. He makes his second start of the season for the Orioles tonight after allowing 1earned run in his first start last week. Toronto was making a run to end the season, but they have cooled off by losing three of their last four contests. Toronto is 19-34 when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles have won back-to-back games now with solid starts from their young pitchers in Rhadamis Liz and Chris Waters, who threw a complete game shutout last night. The Orioles are hoping Bass can continue this trend, and we feel he can. We?ll take a shot on Bass and the Orioles at this great value after winning two in a row. Bet Baltimore on the road
The Gold Medal Club
#973 Boston @# 974 Tampa Bay 7:10 pm
Wakefield vs Garza (LP)
PLAY ON #974 TAMPA BAY -125
We take note the Rays are 7-1 vs Boston at home this year, and it maybe related to the facts that Boston is 2-10 in dome games this season and 4-14 on the artificial turf.
Wakefield is a much better pitcher at home as we note he is 3-6 on the road this season. If the Knuckle ball isn't happening tonight and he has to rely on his fastball he is in trouble.
Garza has been solid 7-3 at home this season with a 2.74 era and a whip of 1.16.
#973 Boston @# 974 Tampa Bay 7:10 pm
Wakefield vs Garza (LP)
PLAY ON #974 TAMPA BAY -125
We take note the Rays are 7-1 vs Boston at home this year, and it maybe related to the facts that Boston is 2-10 in dome games this season and 4-14 on the artificial turf.
Wakefield is a much better pitcher at home as we note he is 3-6 on the road this season. If the Knuckle ball isn't happening tonight and he has to rely on his fastball he is in trouble.
Garza has been solid 7-3 at home this season with a 2.74 era and a whip of 1.16.
SPORTS GAMBLING HOTLINE
Let's see, you have won 14 of your last 16 games. You have won the first 2 of a 4 game set by scores of 8-2, and 6-2. You have gone 4-1 against your opponent this season, and 15-5 overall against your opponent since the 2006 season.
Hmmm, seems to us a "no-brainer" to back the Dodgers on the RUN LINE against the Pirates tonight.
Oh, did we mention tonight's starter Chad Billingsley has won his last 3 starts, and has allowed just 4 earned runs in nearly 20 frames of work?
Compare that to Pirates' hurler Zach Duke who has gone just 4-8 at home this year, and is a career 1-3 against Los Angeles.
You can see why we are bullish on the Dodgers on the RUN LINE tonight, as LA is humming at the right time, and the lowly Pirates aren't standing in their way tonight.
Play on LA on the RUN LINE.
5♦ LOS ANGELES RUN LINE
Let's see, you have won 14 of your last 16 games. You have won the first 2 of a 4 game set by scores of 8-2, and 6-2. You have gone 4-1 against your opponent this season, and 15-5 overall against your opponent since the 2006 season.
Hmmm, seems to us a "no-brainer" to back the Dodgers on the RUN LINE against the Pirates tonight.
Oh, did we mention tonight's starter Chad Billingsley has won his last 3 starts, and has allowed just 4 earned runs in nearly 20 frames of work?
Compare that to Pirates' hurler Zach Duke who has gone just 4-8 at home this year, and is a career 1-3 against Los Angeles.
You can see why we are bullish on the Dodgers on the RUN LINE tonight, as LA is humming at the right time, and the lowly Pirates aren't standing in their way tonight.
Play on LA on the RUN LINE.
5♦ LOS ANGELES RUN LINE
Yes, we were awake before Hondo. Here is the play for today
HONDO
The Rays paid HONDO back for Monday night's be trayal, snuffing the Sawx last night to boost the beefy bankroll to 640 cronins.
Tonight, the Pitching Form's Career vs. Opp col umn seems to be strongly urging an investment on Wakefield, that knucklehead. Thus, Mr. Aitch will float 10 units in the general direction of Boston.
