Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON RL (-118) over Texas
Last night's game was wild as Boston started out with a 10-0 lead and then they watched Texas come back and take the lead, before Boston finally won it 19-16. To score 16 runs yet still lose on the RL is not good. Tonight the Rangers will send Luis Mendoza to the mound and he has been horrible this year as a starter, going 3-5 with a 7.50 ERA in his overall starts, including an 0-3 mark with an 11.57 ERA in 5 road starts on the year. Get this, the Rangers are 0-5 in his road starts this year and have been outscored by a whopping 9.6 rpg in his road starts, while they have been outscored by 4.4 rpg in his starts overall. when the Rangers lose on the road they usually don't do it by 1 run, especially lately. In the last 11 Ranger road losses only 1 was by 1 run and they were outscored by 6.4 rpg in those losses. Texas really hits righties well this year, but tonight they are up against a tough lefty and they are scoring just 4.9 rpg vs them on the year and they have been outscored by 1.8 rpg on the year in those games. John Lester has been super at home this year for the Sox with a 6-1 record and 2.87 ERA, while the Sox are 10-2 in his home starts and have outscored opponents by 3.4 rpg in the process. Boston overall is outscoring teams by 1.7 rpg at home and have outscored opponents by 4.3 rpg in their last 21 wins overall. The Texas staff is just atrocious this year and I do not see them keeping this one close, as Boston will not let a big lead slip away again. This one is over early.
3 UNIT PLAY
Cleveland/ Baltimore Under 9.5
The Under is 22-8-2 in Orioles last 32 games as a road favorite and 6-1 in Guthries last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record, while the Under is 42-16-1 in Indians last 59 during game 3 of a series and 17-7 in their last 24 vs. American League East, plus the Under is 16-5 in Estabrook's last 21 games behind home plate. Jeremy Guthrie comes in on a roall, as he has a 1.21 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and he has pitched well on the road this year with 3.04 ERA, including a 2.03 ERA in his last 5 starts away from home. Jeremy has allowed no more than 1 ER in his last 3 starts overall and no more than 1 ER in his last 4 starts on the road. Anthony Reyes pitched very well in his lone start for the Tribe as he allowed just 1 ERA in 6.1 innings of work. Both offenses has been good of late and normally I wouldn't take an Under with a couple of hot offenses, but I really feel that the pitching matchup is very good tonight, plus we have a solid Under ump behind the plate and that will help keep the score way down.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Baltimore -110 over CLEVELAND
The 5-0 in Guthries last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite, while the Tribe is 12-28 in their last 40 games as an underdog and 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. I know the Orioles have traditionally struggled in Cleveland, but I feel they have the clear cut pitching advantage in this one and that will lead to a nice win here. Jeremy Guthrie comes in on a roll as you can see by his stats from above. The Cleveland offense has been hot of late, but they do struggle vs righty starters as they are hitting just .258 and scoring 4.7 rpg vs them on the year. The Baltimore offense has also been hot of late, as they have scored 6.4 rpg and hit .317 in their last 7 games. Anthony Reyes was solid in his only start for Cleveland, as he gave up just 1 ER in 6.1 innings of work. I feel he will have some trouble tonight vs this offense, while Guthrie will hold the Cleveland offense in check. Take the O's to get the road win here.
Milwaukee RL (-114) over SAN DIEGO
5 of CC's 6 wins since he has come to the Brewers have been by 2 runs or more. The Padres are 4-17 in their last 21 home games and have been outscored by 3.2 rpg in the process, and they have lost by 2 runs or more in 15 of those 17 losses. The Brewers are 14-3 in their last 17 road games and they have outscored opponents by 3.5 rpg in those 14 road wins, plus they have won by 2 runs or more in 19 of their last 22 road wins overall. The Brewers staff has allowed 1.6 rpg in their last 7 games and are facing a San Diego team that can't score at home (2.6 rpg in their last 11 at home). Milwaukee has scored 6 rpg in their last 7 games, outscoring teams by 4.4 rpg in the process. Milwaukee should win this one easily.
1 UNIT PLAY
PITTSBURGH RL (+130) over Cincinnati
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