SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Boston @ TORONTO
Boston -102 over TORONTO
(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Red Sox’ hot streak came to an end last night but they still belted out 11 hits (not to mention 4 walks) and had numerous opportunities to score but untimely hitting and grounding into some double plays did them in. They also had Jake Peavy going and he is the least effective starter on the staff. Boston now gets a shot at R.A. Dickey. Dickey needs no introductions. We all know what he brings to the table. If his knuckler is dancing he gives the Blue Jays a chance but he still has a heavy fly-ball bias and he’s still issuing too many walks (50 BB in 111 IP).
That brings us to Clay Buchholz. At the beginning of the year, we warned not to expect Clay Buchholz to repeat the sub-2.00 ERA he posted in 2013, but it's unlikely he or anyone could've expected regression to be so harsh, as his ERA sat at 7.20 before succumbing to the DL in late May. However, a strong July has piqued our interest once again. Buchholz has returned an entirely different pitcher this month. He actually posted decent skills in April before things fell apart, so he can only be partially blamed for his performance. A 40% hit rate and a strand rate in the 60s in April and May torpedoed any chance of success. Buchholz’s typically mediocre strikeout rate jumped in '13 with no major increase in swing and miss % and has predictably fallen back to Earth this season. A month off seems to have revitalized his swing-and-miss stuff. He's still keeping the ball on the ground and has displayed impeccable control over his past five starts (26/1 K/BB). What do we make of this resurgence? Even during last year's run and 2010's breakout campaign, Buchholz's skills have never been this good. We can't rule out mechanical tweaks as a spark-plug to increased success, and, per PITCHf/X, Buchholz is using his breaking pitches 10% more in July compared to May, while relying less on a fastball that is slowly losing velocity. Needless to say he won't keep up this pace, but he's worth a wager, as July's dominance suggests a nice second-half run could be in the cards.
Tampa Bay @ ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay +104 over ST. LOUIS
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Lance Lynn is a decent pitcher that brings an 11-6 record and 3.12 ERA into this game after 20 starts. However, there are some troubling trends, which include his pedestrian WHIP of 1.31. Lynn's fortunate hr/f of 6% (the MLB average is 10%) indicates ERA is due to rise. Lynn's xERA of 3.88 suggests there is some correction coming. Lynn has seen a steady strikeout rate decline during what should be his growth years. As a result, his command is now merely average. Lynn has been on an odd career path so far as his K rate, overall skills, and xERA are all in a three-year decline from his rookie season. His current skills are that of an average pitcher who will likely not be able to maintain his current ERA all season. Lynn is still young and has shown better skills in the past, but skills trending in the wrong direction like this don't give us confidence he'll keep up his current level of performance. He’ll now face the hottest team in baseball that is sending out the most undervalued pitcher in the game.
The Rays defeated Adam Wainwright last night and they had their worst starter, Jake Odorizzi going. Alex Cobb is as valuable a commodity as David Price but Cobb is not priced as such. Cobb’s 57%/14%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one of the best in the game. His 14% line-drive rate is the lowest in the majors among pitchers that have started 12 games or more. Cobb has an elite swing and miss rate of 12%. Alex Cobb is in line for one of the best second halves of any starter in the league. His extremely misleading ERA of 4.08 was due to an extremely unlucky strand rate in his first 10 starts but that has begun to normalize. The Cardinals do not possess a dangerous offense and the best news is that aside from Jhonny Peralta, none of these current Cardinals have ever seen Cobb before. Incidentally, Peralta is 0-6 lifetime against Cobb. Better team, better pitcher and a price to boot make the Rays a top value play.
Baltimore @ L.A. ANGELS
Baltimore +156 over L.A. ANGELS
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
There’s a good chance that Chris Tillman gets whacked today. It’s actually very unlikely that Tillman will hold onto his 4.03 ERA much longer and he may even pitch himself out of the rotation at some point soon. His aggregate skills are now terrible and they are showing no signs of improvement. The problem is he's not missing many bats. His swing and miss % by month: 8%, 7% and 4%. Over his last 41 innings, Tillman has walked 14 batters and struck out just 22. He's a poor bet to have value down the stretch but pitching for the Orioles and taking back a price like this one against Jered Weaver makes him a decent value play in this one start.
By almost any measure, Jered Weaver‘s best two seasons came in 2010-11 when he threw well over 200 innings and won a lot of games. Most people still think he peaked in 2012, when he was 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA, despite a terrifying decline in his strikeout rate. Weaver’s 2013 was, by most metrics, his worst since at least 2009 but a fracture in his left elbow in his second start of the season was obviously a factor in that down year. That brings us to this year in which Weaver is 10-6 after 21 starts with an ERA of 3.43. Any GM in baseball would gladly welcome a starter with those numbers but it’s really difficult to look at this velocity decline along with other erosions and not get scared off. If you want to write off 2013 due to the broken elbow, go right ahead, but let’s not pretend that there wasn’t anything going wrong here before that. Weaver had some concerns around a sore shoulder in the second half of 2012, and it appears that the additional time off from the broken elbow in 2013 didn’t do much to alleviate that. Weaver’s K/9 has steadily dropped even as the major league average has increased, and he’s now a below-average strikeout pitcher heading into this second half. But if he’s not striking people out, surely he’s found another way to avoid hard contact, right? Uh, no. The warning signs here are just huge. Weaver isn’t throwing as hard, he’s not missing bats, and he’s allowing more line drives. There’s just nothing about that you want to see in a pitcher, nor is the fact that his first-pitch strike percentage has dropped from 64.7% to 61.1% to 59.9% to just 55.1 % this year! Everything important in a pitcher’s profile is headed in the wrong direction, yet somehow Weaver manages to hang in there and get people out. Jered Weaver has one of the worst metric profiles in the game and if you choose to ignore it that’s up to you. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that Jared Weaver cannot and will not continue to get people out consistently. There are going to be several blowups in the second half and while this is just one game in which anything can happen, the price against Weaver offers way too much value to pass up on. PLAY BALL!
MLB
Boston @ TORONTO
Boston -102 over TORONTO
(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Red Sox’ hot streak came to an end last night but they still belted out 11 hits (not to mention 4 walks) and had numerous opportunities to score but untimely hitting and grounding into some double plays did them in. They also had Jake Peavy going and he is the least effective starter on the staff. Boston now gets a shot at R.A. Dickey. Dickey needs no introductions. We all know what he brings to the table. If his knuckler is dancing he gives the Blue Jays a chance but he still has a heavy fly-ball bias and he’s still issuing too many walks (50 BB in 111 IP).
That brings us to Clay Buchholz. At the beginning of the year, we warned not to expect Clay Buchholz to repeat the sub-2.00 ERA he posted in 2013, but it's unlikely he or anyone could've expected regression to be so harsh, as his ERA sat at 7.20 before succumbing to the DL in late May. However, a strong July has piqued our interest once again. Buchholz has returned an entirely different pitcher this month. He actually posted decent skills in April before things fell apart, so he can only be partially blamed for his performance. A 40% hit rate and a strand rate in the 60s in April and May torpedoed any chance of success. Buchholz’s typically mediocre strikeout rate jumped in '13 with no major increase in swing and miss % and has predictably fallen back to Earth this season. A month off seems to have revitalized his swing-and-miss stuff. He's still keeping the ball on the ground and has displayed impeccable control over his past five starts (26/1 K/BB). What do we make of this resurgence? Even during last year's run and 2010's breakout campaign, Buchholz's skills have never been this good. We can't rule out mechanical tweaks as a spark-plug to increased success, and, per PITCHf/X, Buchholz is using his breaking pitches 10% more in July compared to May, while relying less on a fastball that is slowly losing velocity. Needless to say he won't keep up this pace, but he's worth a wager, as July's dominance suggests a nice second-half run could be in the cards.
Tampa Bay @ ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay +104 over ST. LOUIS
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Lance Lynn is a decent pitcher that brings an 11-6 record and 3.12 ERA into this game after 20 starts. However, there are some troubling trends, which include his pedestrian WHIP of 1.31. Lynn's fortunate hr/f of 6% (the MLB average is 10%) indicates ERA is due to rise. Lynn's xERA of 3.88 suggests there is some correction coming. Lynn has seen a steady strikeout rate decline during what should be his growth years. As a result, his command is now merely average. Lynn has been on an odd career path so far as his K rate, overall skills, and xERA are all in a three-year decline from his rookie season. His current skills are that of an average pitcher who will likely not be able to maintain his current ERA all season. Lynn is still young and has shown better skills in the past, but skills trending in the wrong direction like this don't give us confidence he'll keep up his current level of performance. He’ll now face the hottest team in baseball that is sending out the most undervalued pitcher in the game.
The Rays defeated Adam Wainwright last night and they had their worst starter, Jake Odorizzi going. Alex Cobb is as valuable a commodity as David Price but Cobb is not priced as such. Cobb’s 57%/14%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one of the best in the game. His 14% line-drive rate is the lowest in the majors among pitchers that have started 12 games or more. Cobb has an elite swing and miss rate of 12%. Alex Cobb is in line for one of the best second halves of any starter in the league. His extremely misleading ERA of 4.08 was due to an extremely unlucky strand rate in his first 10 starts but that has begun to normalize. The Cardinals do not possess a dangerous offense and the best news is that aside from Jhonny Peralta, none of these current Cardinals have ever seen Cobb before. Incidentally, Peralta is 0-6 lifetime against Cobb. Better team, better pitcher and a price to boot make the Rays a top value play.
Baltimore @ L.A. ANGELS
Baltimore +156 over L.A. ANGELS
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
There’s a good chance that Chris Tillman gets whacked today. It’s actually very unlikely that Tillman will hold onto his 4.03 ERA much longer and he may even pitch himself out of the rotation at some point soon. His aggregate skills are now terrible and they are showing no signs of improvement. The problem is he's not missing many bats. His swing and miss % by month: 8%, 7% and 4%. Over his last 41 innings, Tillman has walked 14 batters and struck out just 22. He's a poor bet to have value down the stretch but pitching for the Orioles and taking back a price like this one against Jered Weaver makes him a decent value play in this one start.
By almost any measure, Jered Weaver‘s best two seasons came in 2010-11 when he threw well over 200 innings and won a lot of games. Most people still think he peaked in 2012, when he was 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA, despite a terrifying decline in his strikeout rate. Weaver’s 2013 was, by most metrics, his worst since at least 2009 but a fracture in his left elbow in his second start of the season was obviously a factor in that down year. That brings us to this year in which Weaver is 10-6 after 21 starts with an ERA of 3.43. Any GM in baseball would gladly welcome a starter with those numbers but it’s really difficult to look at this velocity decline along with other erosions and not get scared off. If you want to write off 2013 due to the broken elbow, go right ahead, but let’s not pretend that there wasn’t anything going wrong here before that. Weaver had some concerns around a sore shoulder in the second half of 2012, and it appears that the additional time off from the broken elbow in 2013 didn’t do much to alleviate that. Weaver’s K/9 has steadily dropped even as the major league average has increased, and he’s now a below-average strikeout pitcher heading into this second half. But if he’s not striking people out, surely he’s found another way to avoid hard contact, right? Uh, no. The warning signs here are just huge. Weaver isn’t throwing as hard, he’s not missing bats, and he’s allowing more line drives. There’s just nothing about that you want to see in a pitcher, nor is the fact that his first-pitch strike percentage has dropped from 64.7% to 61.1% to 59.9% to just 55.1 % this year! Everything important in a pitcher’s profile is headed in the wrong direction, yet somehow Weaver manages to hang in there and get people out. Jered Weaver has one of the worst metric profiles in the game and if you choose to ignore it that’s up to you. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that Jared Weaver cannot and will not continue to get people out consistently. There are going to be several blowups in the second half and while this is just one game in which anything can happen, the price against Weaver offers way too much value to pass up on. PLAY BALL!
