STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
WEDNESDAY, JULY 23RD 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#901 CINCINNATI @ #902 MILWAUKEE - 2:10 PM
•Reds RH Mike Leake (7-8, 3.63 ERA, WHIP: 1.246) - Leake has allowed four runs in each of his last two outings and has given up 37 hits in 25 2/3 innings over his past four turns. He has split two 2014 decisions with the Brewers and recorded the victory June 15 despite being touched up for four runs and nine hits over five innings. He is 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA in seven career starts against Milwaukee.
--KEY STAT: LEAKE is 6-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEAKE 4.3, OPPONENT 4.7.
•Brewers RH Kyle Lohse (10-4, 3.16 ERA, WHIP: 1.104) - Lohse snapped a three-start winless stretch by defeating Washington on July 18. He allowed just one run in seven innings while notching the victory but gave up a season-worst 10 hits. Lohse is 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati this season and possesses a 5-5 mark and 3.01 ERA over 17 career outings against the Reds.
--KEY STAT: LOHSE is 33-15 (+18.4 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LOHSE 4.2, OPPONENT 2.8.
--LOHSE is 28-15 (+13.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LOHSE 4.7, OPPONENT 3.3.
--LOHSE is 19-5 UNDER (+13.7 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LOHSE 3.7, OPPONENT 2.7.
--LOHSE is 19-5 UNDER (+13.4 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LOHSE 3.5, OPPONENT 2.8.
#903 WASHINGTON @ #904 COLORADO - 3:10 PM
•Washington RH Stephen Strasburg (7-7, 3.55 ERA, WHIP: 1.220) - Strasburg yielded four runs and seven hits in seven innings of a 4-2 loss to Milwaukee on July 18 and has only one victory in his last seven turns (1-3) - a 7-1 win over Colorado on July 1. “I’d say the fastball command has been pretty good for the most part,” the 26-year-old California native told the Washington Post. “Maybe I’m throwing too many strikes. Maybe I need to be more effectively wild.” Strasburg yielded three runs and struck out eight in six innings of a 4-2 loss to Colorado on June 25, 2012 - his only start at Coors Field, but gained extensive experience pitching at altitude collegiately while with San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference.
--KEY STAT: STRASBURG is 6-21 against the run line (-14.7 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is +115 to +160 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0.
--STRASBURG is 13-5 OVER (+8.4 Units) as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.7, OPPONENT 4.2.
•Rockies LH Jorge De La Rosa (10-6, 4.39 ERA, WHIP: 1.297) - De La Rosa received a no-decision in a 4-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Friday after yielding one run in six innings and leaving with a 2-1 lead. The 33-year-old Mexican is an astonishing 41-14 at Coors Field - 6-2 in 2014 - and told mlb.com earlier this month: "I like it here because I can command my pitches here. When I go on the road the breaking ball breaks too much. I have trouble keeping it in the strike zone. It's not as comfortable as pitching in Coors Field." De La Rosa has yielded four or fewer hits in 11 of his 20 starts this season, tied for most in the majors with Seattle's Chris Young and the Los Angeles Angels' Garrett Richards.
--KEY STAT: DE LA ROSA is 13-4 (+10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 6.8, OPPONENT 4.1.
--DE LA ROSA is 18-7 (+10.3 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.3, OPPONENT 4.0.
--DE LA ROSA is 23-11 (+11.4 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 4.7, OPPONENT 3.8.
--DE LA ROSA is 25-13 (+12.5 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.8.
--DE LA ROSA is 21-3 (+19.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.9, OPPONENT 3.8.
--DE LA ROSA is 21-7 OVER (+13.5 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 8.1, OPPONENT 5.6.
#905 SAN FRANCISCO @ #906 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (11-7, 3.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.241) - Bumgarner has been a little more generous with the long ball of late, giving up three home runs in four starts this month after allowing a total of four homers in May and June combined. He gave up one homer against the Marlins on Friday, but that was the extent of the damage in the Giants' 9-1 triumph. The only active player for the Phillies to homer against Bumgarner is Domonic Brown.
--KEY STAT: BUMGARNER is 7-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 6.0, OPPONENT 1.6.
--BUMGARNER is 7-0 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 6.0, OPPONENT 1.6.
•Phillies RH A.J. Burnett (6-9, 4.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.361) - Burnett had surrendered three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts before giving up six in five innings against the Atlanta Braves on Friday. Burnett is 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA and a .202 opponents average in nine lifetime starts against the Giants. In seven plate appearances against the veteran right-hander, Posey is 3-for-5 with a double and two walks.
--KEY STAT: BURNETT is 30-45 (-25.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 4.2, OPPONENT 4.4.
--BURNETT is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 5.3, OPPONENT 2.0.
--BURNETT is 9-0 (+12.3 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 4.2, OPPONENT 1.3.
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#907 LA DODGERS @ #908 PITTSBURGH - 7:05 PM
•Dodgers RH Dan Haren (8-7, 4.30 ERA, WHIP: 1.295) - July has not been kind to Haren, who has a 9.64 ERA in three starts this month — all losses. He has failed to survive the fifth inning in two straight outings, allowing three runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 frames in a loss at St. Louis on Friday. The 33-year-old is 3-2 with a 4.92 ERA in nine starts against Pittsburgh and won his only decision in two outings at PNC Park.
--KEY STAT: HAREN is 5-17 (-16.8 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 3.2, OPPONENT 5.4.
--HAREN is 16-6 OVER (+9.6 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 3.2, OPPONENT 5.4.
•Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (1-7, 4.43 ERA, WHIP: 1.475) - Liriano is winless since May 30, but that stretch spans only four starts thanks to a month on the disabled list with a strained oblique. The 30-year-old struggled in his first start after coming off the DL but was better last time out, allowing one unearned run and three hits over five innings. Liriano has been lights-out in two previous starts against the Dodgers — the victim of his only win in 2014 — winning both and allowing two runs over 12 frames.
--KEY STAT: LIRIANO is 32-17 OVER (+14.3 Units) in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LIRIANO 4.8, OPPONENT 4.5.
#909 MIAMI @ #910 ATLANTA - 7:10 PM
•Marlins RH Nathan Eovaldi (5-5, 4.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.262) - Eovaldi started the second half with a thud, giving up a season-high eight runs on nine hits in four innings Friday against the Giants. He is 1-3 in his past seven starts with a 6.15 ERA, giving up five or more runs four times. Eovaldi is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts against the Braves this season, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings to win at home April 30.
--KEY STAT: EOVALDI is 17-6 UNDER (+10.1 Units) as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was EOVALDI 3.1, OPPONENT 3.4.
•Braves RH Ervin Santana (8-6, 4.03 ERA, WHIP: 1.284) - Santana has pitched well since a three-game losing streak, winning three of his past four starts while allowing only one homer in 27 innings. He beat the Phillies on Friday, allowing three earned runs on six hits in six innings despite striking out only one. Santana is 1-0 in two starts against Miami in 2014, giving up three runs on seven hits in six innings to win at Miami on May 31.
--KEY STAT: SANTANA is 16-25 (-15.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANTANA 4.0, OPPONENT 4.8.
--SANTANA is 8-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANTANA 2.7, OPPONENT 4.2.
#911 SAN DIEGO @ #912 CHICAGO CUBS - 8:05 PM
•Padres RH Ian Kennedy (7-9, 3.62 ERA, WHIP: 1.214) - Kennedy was terrific in his first three starts this month but was unable to pick up where he left off coming out of the All-Star break. He allowed four runs on six hits and walked four over five innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets on Friday, snapping a streak of three straight quality starts. The 29-year-old beat the Cubs on May 25 in San Diego and is 4-2 with a 5.80 ERA in nine career starts against them.
--KEY STAT: KENNEDY is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 2.3, OPPONENT 2.5.
--KENNEDY is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in road games this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 2.3, OPPONENT 2.5.
•Cubs LH Tsuyoshi Wada (0-0, 0.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.200) - Wada gets his second crack at the rotation after an impressive major-league debut July 8 at Cincinnati. The former Japanese league ace allowed one unearned run on five hits over five innings in his debut and has split two minor-league starts since. He was dominant his last time out for Triple-A Iowa, striking out 10 and allowing one run and three hits over six innings Friday.
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