STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACB KNOWLEDGE
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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Wednesday's Notebook
•Michigan (-11) beat Purdue 75-66 Jan 30, making 7-13 from arc; they've won four of last five series games, winning by 2-5 in last two visits here. Wolverines split their last six games; underdogs are 6-1 versus spread in their road games. Michigan is 0-2 as a road favorite. Purdue lost seven of last nine games; they're 0-3 as a home underdog. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-9 against the spread.
•Virginia won last 11 games (8-3 vs. spread); they play Syracuse in next game Saturday, can't look past Miami squad that won three of last four games, covered five of last seven- they're 4-0 as road dogs. ACC double digit home favorites are 7-12 versus spread. Miami won five of last six games versus Virginia, with last three wins by 3 or less points or in OT, but they lost last two visits to Charlottesville, by 1-18 points.
•Buffalo won five of last six games, but loss was 73-70 (-5.5) at home to Ohio 11 days ago, when Bulls blew 10-point lead with 7:35 left. MAC underdogs are 21-14 versus spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. Bobcats won last seven games with Buffalo, winning last two games here by 8-18 points. Bulls are 5-2 versus spread on road; all four of their MAC losses are by 6 or less points. Ohio is just 2-5 as a home favorite.
•Charleston lost six of last nine games, but beat Drexel 47-46 (-3.5) Feb 13, in hideous brickfest where teams combined to go 2-22 from arc, 25-49 on foul line. Cougars lost six of last nine games, covered one of its last five- they lost last five road games, last two in OT. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-17 versus spread. Drexel won four of last six games but is 1-4-1 as a home favorite- they're 1-4 in games decided by 5 or less.
•West Virginia (+2) made 13-22 from arc in 102-77 home rout of Iowa St. Feb 10, but is 0-2 since, allowing 88 points both games. The Mountaineers are 2-2-1 as road underdogs; they lost last two road games, by 14-17 points. Iowa State won six of last seven games, but is 2-5 as home favorite; they are 2-10 versus spread in last dozen games. Big X home favorites of 9+ points are 7-10 versus spread. 12 of last 14 West Virginia games went over total.
•Indiana State (-8.5) made 11-21 from arc, beat Illinois State 76-62 Jan 25 at home, its 5th win in last seven series games, but Sycamores lost last two visits here, by 13-2 points. Indiana State split its last six road tilts, covered one of last six overall. Illinois State is 7-1 at home, with loss by 15 to Wichita State; they're 4-6 in last ten games overall. MVC home teams are 17-14 in games where spread was 5 or less points.
•LSU won its last seven home games, but four of seven wins were by 7 or less points; Tigers (-3.5) lost 83-73 at Texas A&M Feb 12- Aggies made 10-23 from arc in game where LSU shot 59% inside arc. LSU lost four of last six games but had Kentucky beat in Rupp Saturday before tiring out late. SEC double digit favorites are 11-14 versus spread. A&M won four of last six games, covering last four- they're 2-4 as a road underdog.
•North Carolina won/covered its last nine games; they beat NC State in first meeting 84-70 (-9.5), rebounding 22 of its 46 missed shots, totally dominating boards. Tar Heels is 21-2 in last 23 series games, but lost in Raleigh by 8 LY. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-12 versus spread. Eight of last 11 UNC games went over the total. Wolfpack won six of last nine games, covered four of their last five.
•Home team won four of five Nebraska-Illinois games; Huskers (-3) beat Illini 67-58 Feb 12, after trailing by 6 early in second half. Nebraska won seven of last eight games, covering last five; they're 5-1 as underdogs on road, winning last two away games SU. Big Dozen home favorites of 4 or less points are 9-7 versus spread. Illini lost last five home games, nine of last 11 games overall- they're 1-5-1 versus spread at home.
•Texas (+5.5) won 74-60 at Baylor Jan 25; regular season series has been swept nine of last 10 years; teams split last four games played here. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-6 versus spread. Four of last five Texas games went over total. Baylor won last four games, with two of last three going OT; they're 2-2-1 as road dogs. Texas won last six home games- they're 2-3 as home favorites- they lost last two games, on road.
•Boise State (-14) led by 24 late in first half, beat Fresno State 86-79 Jan 4, in game where Bulldogs scored 40 points in last 10:00 to cover spread. Boise won seven of last eight series games, last three by 7-9-7. Fresno covered last eight games, won last three home games. Mountain West home teams are 8-13 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Nine of last ten Fresno games went over the total.
•Arizona (-6.5) didn't score in last 2:42, lost 60-58 at California Feb 1, Wildcats' first loss of year- they lost at home to Cal LY, are 4-5 in last nine series games, with the Bears covering last four visits here. Arizona won four of last five home games but covered one of last four. Bears covered twice in last nine games but won three of last four; their road losses are at UCLA by 12, USC by 8. Pac-12 double digit favorites are 14-12 versus spread.
•Colorado State (-2) beat UNLV 75-57 at home Feb 5; they've lost four of last five visits here, losing by 19-2 in last two. Mountain West home favorites of 6 or less points are 16-24 versus spread. Last three State games went over total. Rams lost three of last four games, are 2-3 as road dogs in MW, with three losses by 7, two by 9 points. Rebels lost their last two games, are 2-4 as home favorites- they're 4-1 in last five at home.
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•Situational Trends of The Day
-- MIAMI is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 69.1, OPPONENT 57.6.
-- ALABAMA is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ALABAMA 58.6, OPPONENT 59.3.
-- FRESNO ST is 24-6 (+17.4 Units) against the 1rst half line after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 29.4, OPPONENT 28.1.
-- ARIZONA is 27-6 OVER (+20.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games since 1997.
The average score was ARIZONA 40.6, OPPONENT 32.1.
-- JOHN GIANNINI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points as the coach of LASALLE.
The average score was GIANNINI 77.5, OPPONENT 73.8.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- NEBRASKA is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was NEBRASKA 66.4, OPPONENT 60.5.
-- S FLORIDA is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 57.9, OPPONENT 60.6.
-- FRESNO ST is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 28.1, OPPONENT 25.5.
-- COLL OF CHARLESTON is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was COLL OF CHARLESTON 28.0, OPPONENT 26.1.
-- MARK MONTGOMERY is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of N ILLINOIS.
The average score was MONTGOMERY 54.8, OPPONENT 67.0.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - A road team versus the money line (ST BONAVENTURE) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team, in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%).
(39-5 since 1997.) (88.6%, +31.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -147
The average score in these games was: Team 73.6, Opponent 66.9 (Average point differential = +6.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0, +8.2 units).
-- Play Against - Road teams as an underdog or pick (GEORGIA TECH) - an average 3PT defensive team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%), after scoring 55 points or less in a loss to a conference rival against opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points.
(46-17 since 1997.) (73.0%, +27.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (55-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7.6
The average score in these games was: Team 69.2, Opponent 58.5 (Average point differential = +10.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (34.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-9).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (VIRGINIA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record, in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game).
(38-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.6%, +29.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 124.3
The average score in these games was: Team 64.3, Opponent 52.1 (Total points scored = 116.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (65.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (63-43).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (UCF) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG).
(42-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +28.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.1, Opponent 32.4 (Average first half point differential = -0.3)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (87-49).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (GEORGE MASON) - average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) after 15+ games, after allowing 80 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games.
(43-12 since 1997.) (78.2%, +29.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 62.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 28.2, Opponent 28.9 (Total first half points scored = 57.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-6).
Note: Get today’s complete NCAACB report by heading on over to Wednesday’s (2/26/14) service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...
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