Dr. Bob
Opinion – PURDUE (+5) over Michigan
04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
Purdue’s offensive challenged team matches up pretty well with a Michigan squad that isn’t great defensively and the Boilermakers only lost by 9 point in Ann Arbor despite making just 2 of 14 3-pointers and just 8 or 15 free throws while Michigan sank 7 of 13 long range shots. Purdue should be ready to play a good game tonight after losing by 21 points at Nebraska, as the Boilermakers are 39-16-3 ATS under coach Matt Painter after a losing straight up and to the spread to a conference opponent, including 31-6-2 ATS if that loss was by 9 points or more (3-1-1 ATS this season). Michigan, meanwhile, is just 3-15 ATS under coach Beilein on the road after a win when not getting at least 2 points (i.e. as a dog of less than 2 or favorite). Purdue also applies to a very good 55-9-2 ATS subset of a 166-92-6 ATS situation that won twice last night with Wake Forest and Minnesota. My issue is line value, as my ratings favor Michigan by 6 points. I’ve been losing a lot of close games lately so I’m reluctant to give up line value. I’ll lean with the Boilermakers at +5 or more and I’d take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more.
Opinion - Western Michigan (-7) over BALL STATE
04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 751
Ball State has covered the spread in 3 straight games (all losses) but that recent spread run actually sets the Cardinals up in a negative 5-34-1 ATS subset of a 17-58-1 ATS home dog situation tonight. Western Michigan is playing good basketball lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and going 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 but my ratings only favor Western Michigan by 6 ½ points here and the line has gone from 6 ½ to 7 points because Ball State big man Majok Majok (10.5 ppg, 54% FG, and 10.0 rpg) may miss a second straight game with an ankle injury (he’s listed as questionable). Ball State played pretty well without him on Saturday so I am not going to adjust my number for his possible absence even though his good stats suggest I should. I’ll lean with the Broncos minus the points.
Opinion - NC STATE (+4) over North Carolina
05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 774
North Carolina is red hot with 9 straight wins and covers and the big difference in that run is 3-point shooting, as the Tarheels made just 30.2% of their 3-point shots in their first 18 games and have made 39.1% from beyond the arc during their 9 game winning streak. The Tarheels really only have two guys that shoot 3-pointers, Marcus Paige and Leslie McDonald and Paige has made 38.7% of his 3-point shots this season and 36.7% in his career but has made 24 of 51 3-pointers (47.1%) the last 9 games, which is mostly just random. McDonald missed the first 9 games of the season and has made just 31.7% of his 3-point shots this season and only 32.7% during the 9 game winning streak so the difference in 3-point shooting is just because Paige has gotten hot, which is mostly just variance at work. That only explains about 1.3 points per game and the Tarheels have been very lucky in opponent’s free throw percentage during the streak (just 63%). North Carolina is playing better defense and they are certainly a better team now than they were earlier in the season, even if you factor out the recent variance. Tonight, however, the Heels find themselves in a very negative 39-112-6 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on their recent good run and my ratings favor North Carolina by 3.7 points, so the line is fair. However, NC State hasn’t played well against good teams and a match up analysis would favor the Tarheels by 5.2 points and the opening line of 4 ½ points is probably the fair line in this game. NC State actually should have been closer than 14 points in the first meeting early in the month, as the Wolfpack made just 14 of 26 free throws (rather than the 17 that a 65% free throw shooting team should make) and UNC, a 63.3% free throw shooting team, made a randomly good 25 of 33 free throws in that first meeting rather than the 21 they would be expected to make. The situation is very much in favor of a North Carolina letdown and I’ll lean with NC State at +4 or more and I would take NC State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 or more.
Opinion – PURDUE (+5) over Michigan
04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
Purdue’s offensive challenged team matches up pretty well with a Michigan squad that isn’t great defensively and the Boilermakers only lost by 9 point in Ann Arbor despite making just 2 of 14 3-pointers and just 8 or 15 free throws while Michigan sank 7 of 13 long range shots. Purdue should be ready to play a good game tonight after losing by 21 points at Nebraska, as the Boilermakers are 39-16-3 ATS under coach Matt Painter after a losing straight up and to the spread to a conference opponent, including 31-6-2 ATS if that loss was by 9 points or more (3-1-1 ATS this season). Michigan, meanwhile, is just 3-15 ATS under coach Beilein on the road after a win when not getting at least 2 points (i.e. as a dog of less than 2 or favorite). Purdue also applies to a very good 55-9-2 ATS subset of a 166-92-6 ATS situation that won twice last night with Wake Forest and Minnesota. My issue is line value, as my ratings favor Michigan by 6 points. I’ve been losing a lot of close games lately so I’m reluctant to give up line value. I’ll lean with the Boilermakers at +5 or more and I’d take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more.
Opinion - Western Michigan (-7) over BALL STATE
04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 751
Ball State has covered the spread in 3 straight games (all losses) but that recent spread run actually sets the Cardinals up in a negative 5-34-1 ATS subset of a 17-58-1 ATS home dog situation tonight. Western Michigan is playing good basketball lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and going 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 but my ratings only favor Western Michigan by 6 ½ points here and the line has gone from 6 ½ to 7 points because Ball State big man Majok Majok (10.5 ppg, 54% FG, and 10.0 rpg) may miss a second straight game with an ankle injury (he’s listed as questionable). Ball State played pretty well without him on Saturday so I am not going to adjust my number for his possible absence even though his good stats suggest I should. I’ll lean with the Broncos minus the points.
Opinion - NC STATE (+4) over North Carolina
05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 774
North Carolina is red hot with 9 straight wins and covers and the big difference in that run is 3-point shooting, as the Tarheels made just 30.2% of their 3-point shots in their first 18 games and have made 39.1% from beyond the arc during their 9 game winning streak. The Tarheels really only have two guys that shoot 3-pointers, Marcus Paige and Leslie McDonald and Paige has made 38.7% of his 3-point shots this season and 36.7% in his career but has made 24 of 51 3-pointers (47.1%) the last 9 games, which is mostly just random. McDonald missed the first 9 games of the season and has made just 31.7% of his 3-point shots this season and only 32.7% during the 9 game winning streak so the difference in 3-point shooting is just because Paige has gotten hot, which is mostly just variance at work. That only explains about 1.3 points per game and the Tarheels have been very lucky in opponent’s free throw percentage during the streak (just 63%). North Carolina is playing better defense and they are certainly a better team now than they were earlier in the season, even if you factor out the recent variance. Tonight, however, the Heels find themselves in a very negative 39-112-6 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on their recent good run and my ratings favor North Carolina by 3.7 points, so the line is fair. However, NC State hasn’t played well against good teams and a match up analysis would favor the Tarheels by 5.2 points and the opening line of 4 ½ points is probably the fair line in this game. NC State actually should have been closer than 14 points in the first meeting early in the month, as the Wolfpack made just 14 of 26 free throws (rather than the 17 that a 65% free throw shooting team should make) and UNC, a 63.3% free throw shooting team, made a randomly good 25 of 33 free throws in that first meeting rather than the 21 they would be expected to make. The situation is very much in favor of a North Carolina letdown and I’ll lean with NC State at +4 or more and I would take NC State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 or more.
