SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +2.15 over Golden State
Not all is well in Golden State and regardless of what happens in this game the Grizzlies chances of winning are just as good, if not better than the Warriors chances. Golden State is once again the most dysfunctional family in the NBA. Don Nelson would rather prove a point than win a game. Stephen Jackson wants out and was booed every time he touched the rock in the Warriors last game. They have some very good shooters but they have no defense and no true point-guard. It’s only a matter of time until the Grizzlies start winning consistently because they’re loaded. The defense hasn’t been sharp but they’ll fix that. The Grizz have just one win but watching this team play, with all that talent, you know there onto something good. They also seem determined and they play hard and that is going to pay off. Memphis has to feel that is a winnable game and there is no denying that they’re the better team. There isn’t an easier building in the league to emerge victorious than the one the Grizzlies will visit here. Play: Memphis +2.15 (Risking 2 units).
Indiana +1.90 over NEW YORK
The Pacers are winless and they might remain winless but at this price against this team they’re worth a bet. The problem with the Knicks is that they do not play defense and when you allow the opposition to score with ease you’re in danger of losing every time. The Knickerbockers have allowed an average of an alarming 117 points a game thus far and when that happens it means you have to score a ton to win. They’ve been falling behind by huge margins and although they’ve been able to make some big runs of their own and make it close, those huge comebacks are draining indeed, especially when you’re asked to do it every night. The Pacers have lost to three very good teams in Atlanta, Miami and Denver and will take a big step down in class when facing the Knicks. Again, they may not win but they most definitely have a chance against this defenseless host. Play: Indiana +1.90 (Risking 2 units).
Memphis +2.15 over Golden State
Not all is well in Golden State and regardless of what happens in this game the Grizzlies chances of winning are just as good, if not better than the Warriors chances. Golden State is once again the most dysfunctional family in the NBA. Don Nelson would rather prove a point than win a game. Stephen Jackson wants out and was booed every time he touched the rock in the Warriors last game. They have some very good shooters but they have no defense and no true point-guard. It’s only a matter of time until the Grizzlies start winning consistently because they’re loaded. The defense hasn’t been sharp but they’ll fix that. The Grizz have just one win but watching this team play, with all that talent, you know there onto something good. They also seem determined and they play hard and that is going to pay off. Memphis has to feel that is a winnable game and there is no denying that they’re the better team. There isn’t an easier building in the league to emerge victorious than the one the Grizzlies will visit here. Play: Memphis +2.15 (Risking 2 units).
Indiana +1.90 over NEW YORK
The Pacers are winless and they might remain winless but at this price against this team they’re worth a bet. The problem with the Knicks is that they do not play defense and when you allow the opposition to score with ease you’re in danger of losing every time. The Knickerbockers have allowed an average of an alarming 117 points a game thus far and when that happens it means you have to score a ton to win. They’ve been falling behind by huge margins and although they’ve been able to make some big runs of their own and make it close, those huge comebacks are draining indeed, especially when you’re asked to do it every night. The Pacers have lost to three very good teams in Atlanta, Miami and Denver and will take a big step down in class when facing the Knicks. Again, they may not win but they most definitely have a chance against this defenseless host. Play: Indiana +1.90 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Malinsky
Philadelphia Phillies (Martinez)+175 over NEW YORK YANKEES (Pettitte)
3* #961 PHILADELPHIA ***First Half (1st FIVE innings)*** over NY YANKEES
A bad line here, a very bad one. We do not need to say much more than that in reality, but in a game in which the Yankees have two clear advantages: the home field for certain, and the possibility of Mariano Rivera being far better than any Phillie reliever for the final outs, which we can take out of play. We will call Pedro Martinez over Andy Pettitte as a clear advantage at this price point, and make that our play. We peg Pettitte as clearly vulnerable. Despite the fact that the Yankees won Game #3 behind him on Saturday night he was nothing special, allowing four runs in six innings, including home runs from Jayson Weth and Carlos Ruiz, and logging 104 pitches, 45 of which missed the strike zone. That was his high pitch count since back in August, and that particularly matters on an evening in which he will work on three days rest for the first time since 2006. As patient as the Phillie lineup is, a quick second look makes them even tougher for Pettitte if he can not get near his A stuff. And even Pettitte is not sure that he can bring that. His response to struggling in Game #3? "Mechanically I felt a little bit off, just a click off, my release point didn't feel great. It was just a battle to get the ball in and out and move it around like I wanted to. I wasn't hitting my off-speed stuff for strikes like I like to do.? And what impact will the short turnaround have? "For CC it's a little bit easier because he's throwing so much harder and his stuff is so much better. But physically for me, it obviously is a little, just seeing how my body is going to feel on that short rest because I'm just not sure at my age or whatever ? I don't know how I'll feel. I know I felt terrible [in Game 3] and I was on six days' rest. I just, you know, am going to go as hard as I can for as long as I can." Not exactly a self-vote of confidence. Meanwhile Martinez is not going to be bothered by the pressure of this setting, and in 10 ?First Half? innings in the playoffs he has only allowed one run, that solo blast by Mark Teixeira in the fourth inning here last Thursday night. He comes in much fresher than Pettitte, and after finding the strike zone with 67.3 percent of his pitches in the first go-round, with more strikeouts than hits allowed, there is more than enough price being offered to earn out trust. So why only the First Five Innings? It is really quite simple, neither Ryan Madson nor Brad Lidge inspire confidence from us to get the final outs vs. this lineup in this ballpark, while having consecutive days off sets Rivera up to work two full innings again tonight, which negates the weaknesses that the Yankee set-up men bring. But with most key precincts having the First Half and Full Game lines so closely aligned, we get the benefit of that weak Phillie bullpen actually working for us in terms of the bargain we get to back Martinez.
Philadelphia Phillies (Martinez)+175 over NEW YORK YANKEES (Pettitte)
3* #961 PHILADELPHIA ***First Half (1st FIVE innings)*** over NY YANKEES
A bad line here, a very bad one. We do not need to say much more than that in reality, but in a game in which the Yankees have two clear advantages: the home field for certain, and the possibility of Mariano Rivera being far better than any Phillie reliever for the final outs, which we can take out of play. We will call Pedro Martinez over Andy Pettitte as a clear advantage at this price point, and make that our play. We peg Pettitte as clearly vulnerable. Despite the fact that the Yankees won Game #3 behind him on Saturday night he was nothing special, allowing four runs in six innings, including home runs from Jayson Weth and Carlos Ruiz, and logging 104 pitches, 45 of which missed the strike zone. That was his high pitch count since back in August, and that particularly matters on an evening in which he will work on three days rest for the first time since 2006. As patient as the Phillie lineup is, a quick second look makes them even tougher for Pettitte if he can not get near his A stuff. And even Pettitte is not sure that he can bring that. His response to struggling in Game #3? "Mechanically I felt a little bit off, just a click off, my release point didn't feel great. It was just a battle to get the ball in and out and move it around like I wanted to. I wasn't hitting my off-speed stuff for strikes like I like to do.? And what impact will the short turnaround have? "For CC it's a little bit easier because he's throwing so much harder and his stuff is so much better. But physically for me, it obviously is a little, just seeing how my body is going to feel on that short rest because I'm just not sure at my age or whatever ? I don't know how I'll feel. I know I felt terrible [in Game 3] and I was on six days' rest. I just, you know, am going to go as hard as I can for as long as I can." Not exactly a self-vote of confidence. Meanwhile Martinez is not going to be bothered by the pressure of this setting, and in 10 ?First Half? innings in the playoffs he has only allowed one run, that solo blast by Mark Teixeira in the fourth inning here last Thursday night. He comes in much fresher than Pettitte, and after finding the strike zone with 67.3 percent of his pitches in the first go-round, with more strikeouts than hits allowed, there is more than enough price being offered to earn out trust. So why only the First Five Innings? It is really quite simple, neither Ryan Madson nor Brad Lidge inspire confidence from us to get the final outs vs. this lineup in this ballpark, while having consecutive days off sets Rivera up to work two full innings again tonight, which negates the weaknesses that the Yankee set-up men bring. But with most key precincts having the First Half and Full Game lines so closely aligned, we get the benefit of that weak Phillie bullpen actually working for us in terms of the bargain we get to back Martinez.
st bernadine sports advisors
john keelan(abats computer simulator) 1* phillies +180(no write ups)
lillefty(matt Dennehy) -
1* Indiana/New York under 224
The odds makers have finally caught up with the new york over train. Similar to last year, the Knicks started out fast with all these overs but the odds makers went too far with this one IMO. Troy Murphy is likely out in this one. Indiana is already thin in the depth dept with Dunleavy, foster, Hansborough out. With a thin roster you need to slow things down somewhat to keep from getting worn out. Knicks are on 4th game in 6 nights and with 2 OT games in there the legs could be nice and weary come the 2nd half. I can see both teams hitting 100-105 but 225 is a high total.
let's cash
ZAGS
john keelan(abats computer simulator) 1* phillies +180(no write ups)
lillefty(matt Dennehy) -
1* Indiana/New York under 224
The odds makers have finally caught up with the new york over train. Similar to last year, the Knicks started out fast with all these overs but the odds makers went too far with this one IMO. Troy Murphy is likely out in this one. Indiana is already thin in the depth dept with Dunleavy, foster, Hansborough out. With a thin roster you need to slow things down somewhat to keep from getting worn out. Knicks are on 4th game in 6 nights and with 2 OT games in there the legs could be nice and weary come the 2nd half. I can see both teams hitting 100-105 but 225 is a high total.
let's cash
ZAGS
sports insights
New Jersey Nets +9.5 over Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have started off hot this season, putting up loads of points behind current NBA scoring leader Carmelo Anthony (34.5 ppg). All the more impressive, they've won easily without sharpshooter J.R. Smith, whose threat from behind the 3-point line freed things up last season for Chauncey Billups to penetrate and for Nene's breakout year in the post. Tonight they'll travel to New Jersey, where the Nets will be without point guard Devin Harris and forward Yi Jianlian. All signs point to Denver running roughshod over the depleted Nets, but that's where we like to find value.
The Nuggets opened as 10-point favorites at both CRIS and Pinnacle, and the public is keen to New Jersey's injury troubles. Denver is receiving 78% of spread bets, as well as 92% of moneyline and 90% of parlay wagers. That's an awful lot of support, but the bookmakers haven't adjusted accordingly. Instead, we've seen solid reverse line movement across the board. Sports Insights Betting Systems have also triggered a number of plays on New Jersey, notably a Smart Money from BetUS (+1.82 Units Won) and a Steam Move from BetOnline (+2.3 Units Won). The Nets dropped a full point in many places, but you can still find them getting +9.5 at Olympic, SIA and BetPhoenix.
New Jersey +9.5
Houston Rockets +3 over Los Angeles Lakers
Only a few months ago, this spread might have seemed sensible. The Rockets and Lakers were in an intensely competitive playoff series. Yao and Ron Artest were playing efficient, hard-nosed basketball. Shane Battier was frustrating Kobe more than the Colorado court systems. Aaron Brooks was breaking out, becoming a court leader and dynamic point guard in Rafer Alston's stead. And Trevor Ariza was missing clutch 3-pointers whenever called on to bail out Kobe or Pau Gasol. These days, things look to be different. Ron Ron is is wearing gold and purple, Yao is out for the season, and Trevor Ariza is playing for the Rockets... only he's shooting like Steve Kerr from behind the arc (52.0%)! Confusing, to say the least.
The Lakers, on the heels of an overtime victory at Oklahoma City, opened at only -2.5 at both CRIS and Pinnacle, likely due in large part to the absence of All-Star big man, Pau Gasol. The public, veritably salivating over having to lay so few points on the defending champions, are supporting Los Angeles to the tune of 83% of spread bets, 80% of moneyline bets and 84% of parlays. This is typically a sportsbook nightmare, as they want to minimize risk by putting half the money on each side and safely taking the juice. Instead of raising the spread to encourage bets on Houston, though, the spread dropped all the way down to -1.5 at a few books. It has leveled out at Los Angeles -2 at most places now, but not before we triggered a number of betting system plays on Houston. Most notably, we have a Smart Money play from early-season standout Olympic (+7.09 Units!), a Steam Move triggered by BetOnline (+2.3 Units) as well as a Square Play. Square Plays fall on the games that are most lopsided in terms of public betting percentage, and they are performing admirably on the season, going 8-2 for +5.3 Units. A close look at the market will find some extra value at Bodog, where the line is at +2.5. You can even get +3 at SportsInteraction (SIA).
Houston +3 (SIA)
Games to Watch: 0-2 = 0%
New Jersey +9.5
Houston +3 (SIA)
New Jersey Nets +9.5 over Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have started off hot this season, putting up loads of points behind current NBA scoring leader Carmelo Anthony (34.5 ppg). All the more impressive, they've won easily without sharpshooter J.R. Smith, whose threat from behind the 3-point line freed things up last season for Chauncey Billups to penetrate and for Nene's breakout year in the post. Tonight they'll travel to New Jersey, where the Nets will be without point guard Devin Harris and forward Yi Jianlian. All signs point to Denver running roughshod over the depleted Nets, but that's where we like to find value.
The Nuggets opened as 10-point favorites at both CRIS and Pinnacle, and the public is keen to New Jersey's injury troubles. Denver is receiving 78% of spread bets, as well as 92% of moneyline and 90% of parlay wagers. That's an awful lot of support, but the bookmakers haven't adjusted accordingly. Instead, we've seen solid reverse line movement across the board. Sports Insights Betting Systems have also triggered a number of plays on New Jersey, notably a Smart Money from BetUS (+1.82 Units Won) and a Steam Move from BetOnline (+2.3 Units Won). The Nets dropped a full point in many places, but you can still find them getting +9.5 at Olympic, SIA and BetPhoenix.
New Jersey +9.5
Houston Rockets +3 over Los Angeles Lakers
Only a few months ago, this spread might have seemed sensible. The Rockets and Lakers were in an intensely competitive playoff series. Yao and Ron Artest were playing efficient, hard-nosed basketball. Shane Battier was frustrating Kobe more than the Colorado court systems. Aaron Brooks was breaking out, becoming a court leader and dynamic point guard in Rafer Alston's stead. And Trevor Ariza was missing clutch 3-pointers whenever called on to bail out Kobe or Pau Gasol. These days, things look to be different. Ron Ron is is wearing gold and purple, Yao is out for the season, and Trevor Ariza is playing for the Rockets... only he's shooting like Steve Kerr from behind the arc (52.0%)! Confusing, to say the least.
The Lakers, on the heels of an overtime victory at Oklahoma City, opened at only -2.5 at both CRIS and Pinnacle, likely due in large part to the absence of All-Star big man, Pau Gasol. The public, veritably salivating over having to lay so few points on the defending champions, are supporting Los Angeles to the tune of 83% of spread bets, 80% of moneyline bets and 84% of parlays. This is typically a sportsbook nightmare, as they want to minimize risk by putting half the money on each side and safely taking the juice. Instead of raising the spread to encourage bets on Houston, though, the spread dropped all the way down to -1.5 at a few books. It has leveled out at Los Angeles -2 at most places now, but not before we triggered a number of betting system plays on Houston. Most notably, we have a Smart Money play from early-season standout Olympic (+7.09 Units!), a Steam Move triggered by BetOnline (+2.3 Units) as well as a Square Play. Square Plays fall on the games that are most lopsided in terms of public betting percentage, and they are performing admirably on the season, going 8-2 for +5.3 Units. A close look at the market will find some extra value at Bodog, where the line is at +2.5. You can even get +3 at SportsInteraction (SIA).
Houston +3 (SIA)
Games to Watch: 0-2 = 0%
New Jersey +9.5
Houston +3 (SIA)
Tony George
Philadelphia vs. Yankees
Pettitte and Martinez are BOTH hittable. The Yanks are hot with the bats, but rest assured that pitching away from Utley is not the Yankees only issue to keep Philly from scoring. Philly can hit. When the Phillies go to the bullpen is when NY catches fire it seems and with no true closer or late inning set up guy the Phillies I feel will get lit up at some point tonight. Philly is 7-3 with overs as an underdog and Philly is 19-5-2 with overs in their last 26 games.
Play 1 Unit Over
Philadelphia vs. Yankees
Pettitte and Martinez are BOTH hittable. The Yanks are hot with the bats, but rest assured that pitching away from Utley is not the Yankees only issue to keep Philly from scoring. Philly can hit. When the Phillies go to the bullpen is when NY catches fire it seems and with no true closer or late inning set up guy the Phillies I feel will get lit up at some point tonight. Philly is 7-3 with overs as an underdog and Philly is 19-5-2 with overs in their last 26 games.
Play 1 Unit Over
Lenny Del Genio
Dallas vs. New Orleans
Playing in front of a national TV audience, this is almost "must-win" territory for the 1-3 Hornets, who host the Mavs Wednesday night. Lost in Dallas' incredible rally last night (led by Dirk's 29 fourth quarter points) was the fact they had scored just 52 points through three quarters. Playing in the 2nd night of back to backs is always tough in the NBA, but especially so after playing Jerry Sloan's Utah Jazz. We remember when these teams met in the playoffs two years ago and how badly Chris Paul dominated the now 36-year old Jason Kidd. Paul averaged 33.3 points, 12.5 assists and 8.0 rebounds against Dallas in 2008-09. This is New Orleans first home game in a week and they'll be ready. They have covered six of seven at home vs. Dallas and dominated this series overall with four straight home wins. Take New Orleans.
Dallas vs. New Orleans
Playing in front of a national TV audience, this is almost "must-win" territory for the 1-3 Hornets, who host the Mavs Wednesday night. Lost in Dallas' incredible rally last night (led by Dirk's 29 fourth quarter points) was the fact they had scored just 52 points through three quarters. Playing in the 2nd night of back to backs is always tough in the NBA, but especially so after playing Jerry Sloan's Utah Jazz. We remember when these teams met in the playoffs two years ago and how badly Chris Paul dominated the now 36-year old Jason Kidd. Paul averaged 33.3 points, 12.5 assists and 8.0 rebounds against Dallas in 2008-09. This is New Orleans first home game in a week and they'll be ready. They have covered six of seven at home vs. Dallas and dominated this series overall with four straight home wins. Take New Orleans.
