Service Plays Wednesday 11/04/09

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Andre Gomes NBA

513 LAL -2.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 514 HOU Analysis:

I understand that the Lakers are in a tough spot tonight, as they will play the second game of a back to back series and last night theyƒ battled with the Thunder in a tough game that went to overtime. Kobe Bryant played 46 minutes, Bynum 49 minutes, Artest 47 minutes, Odom 43 minutes and so, the Lakers are primed for a letdown and will be blown out by the Rockets, right?! Not so fast… Actually this is a spot that the Lakers battled pretty well in the past, as for example last season they were 8-2 ATS & SU when playing back to back games on the road and we have in my opinion a pretty underrated Lakers team in this contest.

The Rockets are a nice surprise in this beginning of the season, as they are 3-1 and they are coming for this contest with three consecutive quality wins against the Warriors, the Blazers and the Jazz (on the road) and they have the taste of revenge in their minds tonight, as they were eliminated from the Lakers in last season's postseason. However, despite playing well, there are some edges that points for a huge mismatch favoring the Lakers in tonight's contest.

First of all, the success of the Rockets in their last games is due to their unbelievable hot shooting behind the arc. Do you know that they shot 12-26 from the 3pts line against the Warriors – a torrid 46.2% clip! Then against the Blazers at home, they connected 12-24 behind the arc – an amazing 50% clip and finally in their last game in Utah against the Jazz they shot 10-19 – an even better mark of 52.6%! Wow! The pertinent question in here is: can they repeat similar numbers tonight? In normal conditions, I would say that is tough to have such awesome numbers in every game, but when one team faces the Lakers, then obviously I can’t expect these kinds of numbers to happen. I remember that the Lakers have Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest and we are talking about two terrific perimeter defenders! After all, it isn’t a big surprise for me that the Lakers are already ranked as the third best team in the league in defending 3pts shots with a 28% clip allowed, so in my opinion the Rockets won’t have such outrageous numbers in this department tonight.

If the perimeter game doesn’t work, then the Rockets are done because without Yao Ming, the Rockets don’t have any reliable option down the paint. Chuck Hayes, Luis Scola and Carl Landry form a pretty undersized Rockets frontcourt unit and despite offering hustle and hard work, they won’t be able to match the size of the Lakers frontcourt. Andrew Bynum is playing well lately and he will have a huge size advantage in this contest.

The bad spot for the Lakers in this contest doesn’t justify such a short spread in here. Last night they had a rough game against the Thunder in which they committed 26 turnovers, but I expect them to be more focused tonight, as the Rockets demand other kind of attention. My fair line for this contest is the Lakers to be favored by 2 full possessions and that’s why I’m taking the Lakers tonight.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5)


502 TOR -8.5 (-110) BetUS vs 501 DET Analysis:

The Pistons defeated last night the Magic at home in a huge upset win and now they will play a back to back game at Toronto against the Raptors. I was curious about the line for this game because in my opinion the Pistons will receive some love due to the public perception because after such amazing win last night, where they defeated the undefeated Magic, even without Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.

However I don’t think that the Pistons have enough fuel on their tanks for this contest. Note that since Hamilton is out, the Pistons are showing a terrible ball movement. In fact in their last three games, they were able to have 37 assists and… 45 turnovers! In their last game, they dished only 8 assists in 48 minutes of action in a clear sign of lack of a good offensive game. To make things even worse, the Pistons don’t have any real threat in the frontcourt as Ben Wallace, Villanueva or Kwame Brown aren’t surely known for their post up abilities, so the Pistons will be too dependent on their perimeter game for tonight.

Last night Rodney Stuckey, Ben Gordon and Will Bynum combined 63 of the team's 85 points - we are talking about of almost 75% of the Pistons points in just 3 backcourt players! There isn’t any balance on this team offensively and they really need these three players to perform very well, i‚n order to be competitive. The problem is that last night’s game was a brutal physical contest, as the Pistons went 38 times to the charity stripe and both Gordon and Stuckey played more than 40 minutes each, so this is a huge letdown spot for them.

The Raptors had a nice season debut by defeating the Cavaliers at home, but since then they have lost consecutive games against the Grizzlies and the Magic by showing a horrible defense in both contests. In both contests they displayed a nice rhythm offensively, but their defense was non existent. Against the Grizzlies, they allowed 52 points in the paint and last Sunday, the Magic shot 17-32 behind the arc and I expect a focused team on the defensive end tonight. Like I said, the Pistons are a pretty one dimensional team and it won’t be hard for the Raptors to shut them down tonight.

We are dealing with a healthy and hungry team who will face a physically challenged team who is playing terrible on the offense without Hamilton and Prince. My fair line for this contest is the Raptors to receive a complete blowout line and having the chance to get single digits numbers in this contest is great for us, so take Toronto in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Toronto Raptors (-8,5)


19 MEM / 520 GSW Over 224.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: NBA - 519 Memphis Grizzlies @ 520 Golden State Warri‚ors

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 224
 
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Denver Money's NHL Wednesday **I think I am losing it*

Well we finished yesterday on the losing side going 1-2. Once again Toronto killed us by losing in OT again this season. The Leafs just can't seem to win a close game or a game for that sake. Tonight I am once again going with heavy juice and that is why I feel like I am losing my mind. I normally shy away from the juice, but tonight is a great spot to lay it and I almost played this game bigger than what I already am. Best of luck if you fade or follow:

3* Buffalo -190

1* Buffalo -1.5 +155

1* Washington +120
 

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MLB Over/Under Grand Slam!
Steve Merril is a perfect 5-0 in the World Series and has another powerful Over/Under winner for Wednesday - Phillies/Yankees (Game 6) - 7:55 pm ET (FOX) - Guaranteed to WIN AGAIN!
OVER 9

paid/confirmed
(BOL)headed to the pool(<)<
 

The Degenerate Gambler
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DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
11/4/09- Wednesday NHL

Hitting 60% @ sportspickmonitor

5*dallas-114
4*sj/columbus under 5.5
4*cal/dallas over 5.5
4*buffalo-175

p/c :drink:
 

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LineChangers...Monopoly- yanks, knicks, knicks under, raptors. just saw it on twitter.com/LineChangers
 

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Winning way sports (john finna)

Free pick: Memphis + 6

3 team nba parlay for wednesday night

anyone?...tanks in adv....
 

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Stephen Nover
15 Dime PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (+1-1/2 Runs)
 

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Doc's Sports

Baseball

3-Unit Play Take Phila. Phils (+1.5RL -110) over NY Yankees (7:55p.m.)

3-Unit Play Take UNDER 9 Runs NY Yankees Philadelphia Phillies
 
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Randall the Handle


Washington +1.27 over NEW JERSEY (REG) Pinnacle

The fact that Alex Ovechkin is out is one of the main reasons for this choice. When a player of his caliber goes down the rest of the team digs down deep for the first game for sure and perhaps a few games after that. These guys have a ton of pride and they want to show everyone they can win without its superstar. Besides, it’s not like the Caps aren’t deep. They’re a top-seeded playoff team with or without OV and tonight you’ll see them play their hearts out. The Devils have struggled miserably at home with just one win in five games. They’re also struggling offensively and in fact, has scored two goals or less in eight of the first 12 games. Don’t get me wrong, the Devils are playing great and they’re one of the hotter teams in the league right now. However, the Caps will treat this one like a playoff game because all they’ve been hearing for three days is questions about how they’re going to get along without AO. We’ll see. Play: Washington +1.27 (Risking 2 units).



FLORIDA -½ +1.30 over Carolina (REG) Pinnacle

The Hurricanes are in a bigger panic than the public at a flu-vaccine clinic. Here’s a team that has dropped nine in a row and while the team tries to figure it out, someone should tell them it’s not rocket science. I said it all of last year and this year that the Canes are just a bad hockey team with not a lot of talent. The defense stinks, the offense is filled with a bunch of castoffs and aging vets and until they show us something different, why not kick a team when they’re down. Not only are the Canes losing, they’re getting buried. Its last three losses have been by scores of 5-1, 6-1, and 5-2. They also have a 7-2 loss and a 6-2 loss earlier in the year. Meanwhile, the Panthers are coming on with two straight wins over two good teams, Dallas and St. Louis. Both of those were on the road and now they’ll play at home and they’ll play with some momentum. The Panthers remain perhaps the most undervalued team in the business. The kicker here is that these two met once already and that game was the Panthers first back upon its return from overseas to start the year. Florida lost 7-2 and there’s no way they’ve forgotten about it. Well, the tide has turned and it’s not in the Hurricanes favor. Play: Florida -½ +1.30 (Risking 2 units).



COLUMBUS +1.05 over San Jose (REG) Pinnacle

The Sharkies are warming up big time after a shaky start but I’m not convinced they’re as good as advertised. The first line of Thornton, Heatley and Clowe is as good as it gets but after that they take a big drop off and the defense leaves plenty to be desired as well. The Sharks are a team that can be pressured to cough it up in its own end and Ken Hitchcock and the Jackets should be able to exploit that. The Jackets roll out four good lines and two outstanding lines. The first two lines of Nash, Vermette and Huselius and Umberger, Brassard and Voracek just keep getting better and just keep racking up points. R.J. Umberger might be the most underrated player in the game. Anyway, these Blue Jackets are a team on the rise and they’re not rebuilding anymore. The Jackets are built and they’re damn good. They’re not going to be a pooch in its own building much this year but when they are and the circumstances are not unfavorable, I’m on them with no questions asked and absolutely make no exception here. Play: Columbus +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

WASHINGTON WIZARDS -3

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the home side:

Off their worst offensive effort of the season, I look for the Wizards to get back on track this evening in front of the hometown crowd. Alternating wins and losses, Washington is averaging 112.5 points on 53.7 % shooting in its two victories but 89.5 points on 41.9 % shooting in the two defeats.

This is a spot that Washington has always performed well in though, going 8-5 ATS over the last two seasons vs. good defensive teams which allow 91 points or less per contest.

On the other side of the court: Miami was 12 minutes away from opening with four straight wins for the first time since 2004-05 before falling apart down the stretch in Tuesday’s 104-96 loss to Phoenix; I expect a "letdown" tonight.

Miami allowed Phoenix to shoot 50.6 % from the floor and make 9 of 23 3-pointers (39.1 %)!

And it doesn't get any easier for D-Wade and company tonight when we find out that this is a spot that Miami has struggled in for a long time now; over the last two seasons the Heat are just 6-11 ATS as a road dog of three points or less.

Bottom line: The Heat swept the four-game season series from the Wizards last season, outscoring them by an average of 15.7 points; with Arenas back in the lineup, I look for Washington to play with a small amount of revenge in mind and feel that home court advantage can also not be overlooked in this instance; look for the WIZARDS to improve to a perfect 2-0 ATS at the Verizon Center this season! *9* WIZARDS.
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Andre Gomes

TORONTO RAPTORS -8.5

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Pistons defeated last night the Magic at home in a huge upset win and now they will play a back to back game at Toronto against the Raptors. I was curious about the line for this game because in my opinion the Pistons will receive some love due to the public perception because after such amazing win last night, where they defeated the undefeated Magic, even without Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.

However I don’t think that the Pistons have enough fuel on their tanks for this contest. Note that since Hamilton is out, the Pistons are showing a terrible ball movement. In fact in their last three games, they were able to have 37 assists and… 45 turnovers! In their last game, they dished only 8 assists in 48 minutes of action in a clear sign of lack of a good offensive game. To make things even worse, the Pistons don’t have any real threat in the frontcourt as Ben Wallace, Villanueva or Kwame Brown aren’t surely known for their post up abilities, so the Pistons will be too dependent on their perimeter game for tonight.

Last night Rodney Stuckey, Ben Gordon and Will Bynum combined 63 of the team's 85 points - we are talking about of almost 75% of the Pistons points in just 3 backcourt players! There isn’t any balance on this team offensively and they really need these three players to perform very well, in order to be competitive. The problem is that last night’s game was a brutal physical contest, as the Pistons went 38 times to the charity stripe and both Gordon and Stuckey played more than 40 minutes each, so this is a huge letdown spot for them.

The Raptors had a nice season debut by defeating the Cavaliers at home, but since then they have lost consecutive games against the Grizzlies and the Magic by showing a horrible defense in both contests. In both contests they displayed a nice rhythm offensively, but their defense was non existent. Against the Grizzlies, they allowed 52 points in the paint and last Sunday, the Magic shot 17-32 behind the arc and I expect a focused team on the defensive end tonight. Like I said, the Pistons are a pretty one dimensional team and it won’t be hard for the Raptors to shut them down tonight.

We are dealing with a healthy and hungry team who will face a physically challenged team who is playing terrible on the offense without Hamilton and Prince. My fair line for this contest is the Raptors to receive a complete blowout line and having the chance to get single digits numbers in this contest is great for us, so take Toronto in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Toronto Raptors (-8.5)
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ugk

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aPickaDay free pick 11/04

NBA: Hawks -5.5 10pm tonight.
 

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Vegas Runner

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vegas Runner
3* Buffalo -2.5
3* Cleveland -11
2* Cleveland Over 197

these are yesterdays
 

The Degenerate Gambler
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Bob Balfe

Knicks -5.5 over Pacers

Phillies/Yankees Over 9.5
Martinez/Pettitte
 

The Degenerate Gambler
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Bill Marzano

Phillies at Yankees
Pick: Over 9

I really like the total in this game and I think it will go Over the 9 posted runs...I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees score this many runs themselves...I think they are going to rough up Pedro and get the pen early...I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Phils get 3-4 runs with Utley and Worth swinging the sticks, plus the addition of the DH...lets go Over the total here
 

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