Freddy Wills POD
The Bottom Line
Take Marlins -1.5 @ +115 3-Dime Play
Let's get back on track here on Wednesday as we go with the Marlins run line. I suppose you can go with the money line but at -183 you'd have to win at a 67% clip just to make money. I'll pass on that and go with the run line here as the visiting Astros have lost 76.6% of their road losses (31) by more than 1 run. So if you believe they will lose which I absolutely do! Take the Marlins run line in this situation.
Don't get me wrong Bud Norris has looked sharp in two starts so far this year, but I really see this guy as more of a relief pitcher. He not only struggles with control, but lacks the necessary stamina to go long into games. With a low 90mph fast ball and a nice curve to go along don't be surprised if he pitches effectively early, but it's just a matter of time before the Marlins take pitches which will get them into the Astros bullpen. Florida ranked 16th in the league in taking walks should be patient with a pitcher they do not know in Norris, but has 9BB in 13IP as a starter. When the Marlins do get to the bullpen it should be smooth sailing from there as the relievers available have a 6.75 ERA in their last 3. Collectively they have struggled in their last 5 (6.10 ERA) last 10 (5.30 ERA) and on the road (4.92 ERA). Again the key will be the Marlins ability to get into this bullpen and I don't think it will be a problem especially with their acquisition of Nick Johnson that has sparked this lineup mainly because his patience and ability to get on base. Marlins can take notes from Johnson here tonight. They have had no trouble scoring runs scoring a whopping 46 in their last 6 games and are 12-3 at home vs. RH starters. They will throw one of their best in Rickie Nolasco up there tonight.
Nolasco who has a .90 Whip and a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts is primed for a great performance. In the past (2008) he has struggled against the Astros with 12IP 7 ER giving up 4HR. It has been his weakness to give up HR's and that was the cause of his poor pitching against Houston last year. Keep in mind Houston is without Berkman again (2-6 1HR vs. Nolasco) and are 24th in the league in HRs. Nolasco has very good control and has yet to give up more than 3 BB in a game this year. Much should hold true as he faces the Astros who are 25th in the league in walks. So how are the Astros able to score runs against Nolasco? who has 125 strikeouts in 124 innings and is coming off a 5-1 run for team wins in his last 6 home starts? They will have to play small ball and steal bases, and they are ranked 11th in stealing, but I think the Marlins can keep that in control tonight and I feel comfortable backing a hot offense over a team that can only win if they play small ball.
The Bottom Line
Take Marlins -1.5 @ +115 3-Dime Play
Let's get back on track here on Wednesday as we go with the Marlins run line. I suppose you can go with the money line but at -183 you'd have to win at a 67% clip just to make money. I'll pass on that and go with the run line here as the visiting Astros have lost 76.6% of their road losses (31) by more than 1 run. So if you believe they will lose which I absolutely do! Take the Marlins run line in this situation.
Don't get me wrong Bud Norris has looked sharp in two starts so far this year, but I really see this guy as more of a relief pitcher. He not only struggles with control, but lacks the necessary stamina to go long into games. With a low 90mph fast ball and a nice curve to go along don't be surprised if he pitches effectively early, but it's just a matter of time before the Marlins take pitches which will get them into the Astros bullpen. Florida ranked 16th in the league in taking walks should be patient with a pitcher they do not know in Norris, but has 9BB in 13IP as a starter. When the Marlins do get to the bullpen it should be smooth sailing from there as the relievers available have a 6.75 ERA in their last 3. Collectively they have struggled in their last 5 (6.10 ERA) last 10 (5.30 ERA) and on the road (4.92 ERA). Again the key will be the Marlins ability to get into this bullpen and I don't think it will be a problem especially with their acquisition of Nick Johnson that has sparked this lineup mainly because his patience and ability to get on base. Marlins can take notes from Johnson here tonight. They have had no trouble scoring runs scoring a whopping 46 in their last 6 games and are 12-3 at home vs. RH starters. They will throw one of their best in Rickie Nolasco up there tonight.
Nolasco who has a .90 Whip and a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts is primed for a great performance. In the past (2008) he has struggled against the Astros with 12IP 7 ER giving up 4HR. It has been his weakness to give up HR's and that was the cause of his poor pitching against Houston last year. Keep in mind Houston is without Berkman again (2-6 1HR vs. Nolasco) and are 24th in the league in HRs. Nolasco has very good control and has yet to give up more than 3 BB in a game this year. Much should hold true as he faces the Astros who are 25th in the league in walks. So how are the Astros able to score runs against Nolasco? who has 125 strikeouts in 124 innings and is coming off a 5-1 run for team wins in his last 6 home starts? They will have to play small ball and steal bases, and they are ranked 11th in stealing, but I think the Marlins can keep that in control tonight and I feel comfortable backing a hot offense over a team that can only win if they play small ball.
DAVE MAlinsky
GAME: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Aug 12, 2009 8:10PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Offered at: 177
REASON FOR PICK: 3* #977 KANSAS CITY over MINNESOTA
The Twins bring a losing record to the table, and after 21 starts and 118.1 innings, the 4-11/5.63 of Francisco Liriano is simply who he is. That is not exactly the kind of package that should be favored in this range, and with last night’s Kansas City blowout to open the series not only raising the confidence level of the Royals, but also creating fatigue ratings across a Minnesota bullpen that will be needed this evening, we have plenty to work with here.
At this point there simply is not a tangible reason to expect Liriano to regain that magical 12-3/2.16 form of 2006. That is a distant memory. His last win came in June, and his 0-2/6.61 since the All Star break actually shows a decline from previous outings, instead of stepping up. He has twice been given 10 days off between starts over the past month, but instead of making him stronger it has thrown him even further out of rhythm. In his last four outings he has only burned through 21.2 innings, and that becomes a real problem after a Monday fiasco in which Brian Duensing (1.2 innings and 59 pitches), Bobby Keppel (2.2 and 40), Jesse Crain (1.2 and 31) and Jose Mijaries (1.1 and 24) all created fatigue ratings. At 2-8 overall in their last 10 games, this Team + Pitcher combination does not merit anywhere near the price range being called for.
Brian Bannister has worked to a competitive 7-8/3.97 for the Royals, and note how well they have been swinging the bats of late, scoring in double figures in two of the last three games, and scoring six or more in five of seven over the last three series. This will be the fourth time in seven games they have gone up against a left-handed starter, which eases the adjustments, and with Monday off, plus that big working margin last night, the bullpen is also positioned much better than their Minnesota counterparts.
GAME: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Aug 12, 2009 8:10PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Offered at: 177
REASON FOR PICK: 3* #977 KANSAS CITY over MINNESOTA
The Twins bring a losing record to the table, and after 21 starts and 118.1 innings, the 4-11/5.63 of Francisco Liriano is simply who he is. That is not exactly the kind of package that should be favored in this range, and with last night’s Kansas City blowout to open the series not only raising the confidence level of the Royals, but also creating fatigue ratings across a Minnesota bullpen that will be needed this evening, we have plenty to work with here.
At this point there simply is not a tangible reason to expect Liriano to regain that magical 12-3/2.16 form of 2006. That is a distant memory. His last win came in June, and his 0-2/6.61 since the All Star break actually shows a decline from previous outings, instead of stepping up. He has twice been given 10 days off between starts over the past month, but instead of making him stronger it has thrown him even further out of rhythm. In his last four outings he has only burned through 21.2 innings, and that becomes a real problem after a Monday fiasco in which Brian Duensing (1.2 innings and 59 pitches), Bobby Keppel (2.2 and 40), Jesse Crain (1.2 and 31) and Jose Mijaries (1.1 and 24) all created fatigue ratings. At 2-8 overall in their last 10 games, this Team + Pitcher combination does not merit anywhere near the price range being called for.
Brian Bannister has worked to a competitive 7-8/3.97 for the Royals, and note how well they have been swinging the bats of late, scoring in double figures in two of the last three games, and scoring six or more in five of seven over the last three series. This will be the fourth time in seven games they have gone up against a left-handed starter, which eases the adjustments, and with Monday off, plus that big working margin last night, the bullpen is also positioned much better than their Minnesota counterparts.
Jack Jones
20* No-Brainer on Texas Rangers -120
Rangers starting pitcher, Tommy Hunter, has been the real deal this season. He's now got 8 Major League starts under his belt, earning a 4-2 record, 2.63 ERA, and 1.89 WHIP. On the road he has been especially sharp, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Meanwhile, Indian's starter, Fausto Carmona, has struggled through 14 starts this season, going just 2-6 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Carmona is also 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Rangers are 3-1 this season against the Indians, and while Cleveland took the first game of the series, I like the Rangers to bounce back in a big way Wednesday night.
15* on Nationals/Braves OVER 9
Take the over in tonight's game between the Nationals and the Braves. Both teams have been hitting extremely well lately, with the Nats hitting .315 as a team and scoring 6.4 runs per game over the past week. The Braves are scoring at an even better clip, averaging 6.6 runs per game, while batting .300 as a team in their last 7 games. National's starter, Craig Stammen, has been hit hard over his last 3 outings, giving up at least 5 earned runs per game, resulting in an ERA of 15.42 over that stretch. All three of those starts have resulted in the over cashing in. You also have to like the chances of the Braves being able to tack on extra runs once Stammen gets pulled from the game. The Nats have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.76 ERA on the road. The Nationals bats should stay hot and I think runs should come easily for the Braves tonight as well
15* on Royals/Twins OVER 9
This is a great spot for the over with two hot-hitting teams and two pitchers that have struggled over their last 3 outings. KC starter, Brain Bannister, has a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last 3 starts, while Twins starter, Francisco Liriano, has picked up a 6.61 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 appearances. The Royals aren't well-known for their hitting, but over their last 7 games they are putting up an average of 7.6 runs per game and hitting an amazing .345 as a team. The Twins aren't far behind over the last 7 games offensively, batting .325 as a team and scoring 6.3 runs per game. Kansas City's bullpen is currently sporting a 5.19 ERA, while the Twin's pen has struggled at home, posting a 5.02 ERA. Like I said, this is a great spot for the over to hit
20* No-Brainer on Texas Rangers -120
Rangers starting pitcher, Tommy Hunter, has been the real deal this season. He's now got 8 Major League starts under his belt, earning a 4-2 record, 2.63 ERA, and 1.89 WHIP. On the road he has been especially sharp, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Meanwhile, Indian's starter, Fausto Carmona, has struggled through 14 starts this season, going just 2-6 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Carmona is also 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Rangers are 3-1 this season against the Indians, and while Cleveland took the first game of the series, I like the Rangers to bounce back in a big way Wednesday night.
15* on Nationals/Braves OVER 9
Take the over in tonight's game between the Nationals and the Braves. Both teams have been hitting extremely well lately, with the Nats hitting .315 as a team and scoring 6.4 runs per game over the past week. The Braves are scoring at an even better clip, averaging 6.6 runs per game, while batting .300 as a team in their last 7 games. National's starter, Craig Stammen, has been hit hard over his last 3 outings, giving up at least 5 earned runs per game, resulting in an ERA of 15.42 over that stretch. All three of those starts have resulted in the over cashing in. You also have to like the chances of the Braves being able to tack on extra runs once Stammen gets pulled from the game. The Nats have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.76 ERA on the road. The Nationals bats should stay hot and I think runs should come easily for the Braves tonight as well
15* on Royals/Twins OVER 9
This is a great spot for the over with two hot-hitting teams and two pitchers that have struggled over their last 3 outings. KC starter, Brain Bannister, has a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last 3 starts, while Twins starter, Francisco Liriano, has picked up a 6.61 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 appearances. The Royals aren't well-known for their hitting, but over their last 7 games they are putting up an average of 7.6 runs per game and hitting an amazing .345 as a team. The Twins aren't far behind over the last 7 games offensively, batting .325 as a team and scoring 6.3 runs per game. Kansas City's bullpen is currently sporting a 5.19 ERA, while the Twin's pen has struggled at home, posting a 5.02 ERA. Like I said, this is a great spot for the over to hit
Stan Sharp
978 MIN -1.5 (+110) BetUS vs 977 KAN
<DD>Analysis: Stan is Betting MINNESOTA (-1.5 RUNS) today. Stan notes that MINNESOTA will bounce back tonight after last nights loss against KC. Bannister will get hit hard tonight and Liriano will dominate KC at home. Stan has Minnesota easily covering the 1.5 Runs. TAKE MINNESOTA (-1.5 RUNS) as STAN SHARP'S TRIPLE DIME VEGAS WISE GUY? PLAY and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
</DD>
978 MIN -1.5 (+110) BetUS vs 977 KAN
<DD>Analysis: Stan is Betting MINNESOTA (-1.5 RUNS) today. Stan notes that MINNESOTA will bounce back tonight after last nights loss against KC. Bannister will get hit hard tonight and Liriano will dominate KC at home. Stan has Minnesota easily covering the 1.5 Runs. TAKE MINNESOTA (-1.5 RUNS) as STAN SHARP'S TRIPLE DIME VEGAS WISE GUY? PLAY and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
</DD>
Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
FREE PICK
*200 Florida Marlins -181
I am are going with the Marlins again tonight to take another win from the Astros. I have several trends that say the Marlins will be the winner. First we have the Astros as 13-38 SU since 2004 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Next I have the Marlins as 40-7 SU since 2004 as a 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs win. Finally, I have the Marlins as 26-4 since 2004 as 1 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series. Take the Marlins to get the win.
Good Luck!!
FREE PICK
*200 Florida Marlins -181
I am are going with the Marlins again tonight to take another win from the Astros. I have several trends that say the Marlins will be the winner. First we have the Astros as 13-38 SU since 2004 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Next I have the Marlins as 40-7 SU since 2004 as a 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs win. Finally, I have the Marlins as 26-4 since 2004 as 1 140+ favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is not the first game of a series. Take the Marlins to get the win.
Good Luck!!
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves Aug 12 2009 7:00PM
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 9 Belmont
EXPERT: Steve Merril
TITLE: MLB Over/Under Top Play!
REASON FOR PICK:
Washington's 8-game win streak finally came to an end last night, but they have still been in strong current form offensively this month. Craig Stammen takes the mound and brings a 3-6 record with a 5.40 ERA. In his last three starts he's 0-1 with a 15.42 ERA and three Overs. In just 9.3 innings of work he gave up 17 runs and 23 hits. Stammen has yet to face Atlanta and the Braves have gone Over in six of their last seven games, scoring 46 runs in their last seven contests. The Braves are averaging 5.1 runs per game in the division with a strong .281 team batting average.
Derek Lowe goes for Atlanta and he's 11-7 with a 4.15 ERA on the season. Lowe is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA in his last three starts with two going Over the total. Lowe has seen the Nationals three times this season, giving up 8 runs in 14.3 innings of work and a whopping 21 hits in that span. Cristian Guzman (11-29), Nyjer Morgan (5-9) and Elijah Dukes (2-5) hit Lowe the best. Washington is 10-2-1 Over in their past thirteen games, averaging a fantastic 7.5 runs per game during that span.
Play OVER the total.
PICK: over
Your pick will be graded at: 9 Belmont
EXPERT: Steve Merril
TITLE: MLB Over/Under Top Play!
REASON FOR PICK:
Washington's 8-game win streak finally came to an end last night, but they have still been in strong current form offensively this month. Craig Stammen takes the mound and brings a 3-6 record with a 5.40 ERA. In his last three starts he's 0-1 with a 15.42 ERA and three Overs. In just 9.3 innings of work he gave up 17 runs and 23 hits. Stammen has yet to face Atlanta and the Braves have gone Over in six of their last seven games, scoring 46 runs in their last seven contests. The Braves are averaging 5.1 runs per game in the division with a strong .281 team batting average.
Derek Lowe goes for Atlanta and he's 11-7 with a 4.15 ERA on the season. Lowe is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA in his last three starts with two going Over the total. Lowe has seen the Nationals three times this season, giving up 8 runs in 14.3 innings of work and a whopping 21 hits in that span. Cristian Guzman (11-29), Nyjer Morgan (5-9) and Elijah Dukes (2-5) hit Lowe the best. Washington is 10-2-1 Over in their past thirteen games, averaging a fantastic 7.5 runs per game during that span.
Play OVER the total.
wow this guy is the best capper ever....$1,000 bet on cards money line (-345) what a joke
I should become a professional tout and just have picks like this!
kelley is a fucking douchebag, he plays heavy favs, and loses them in bunches. that mofo has a record like 62%, acting real tough, but he's losing money. maybe im confusing him with someone, but im pretty sure it was this cocksucker @)@)@)
