jeff benton
1-0 yesterday.
Tuesday's Action
25 Dime college basketball release on ILLINOIS minus the points at home vs. North Carolina. The Illini are laying between 5 1/2 and 6 points depenoding on where you shop. As always, make sure you have multiple wagering options to ensure you get the best line value available.
10 Dime NBA release on the NETS plus the points at the rival Knicks. The Nets are ranging from a 4 to 5-point road undeedog, with the prevailing number being 4 1/2.
ILLINOIS
Both North Carolina and Illinois stumbled through incredibly disappointing seasons last year, with both winding up in the NIT. Well, through the first three weeks of this season, it’s apparent that one of these storied programs is poised for a huge bounce-back season … and it’s not North Carolina!
After opening up with easy wins over Lipscomb and Hofstra, the Tar Heels suffered consecutive upset losses to Minnesota (72-67) and Vanderbilt (72-65) in Puerto Rico, then returned to Chapel Hill and barely got past UNC-Ashville (nearly blowing a 22-point lead) and College of Charleston (UNC gave up 19 offensive rebounds and needed a 12-2 second-half run to put Charleston away 74-69, falling way short as 14-point home favorite).
North Carolina’s problem? It is relying heavily on a bevy of freshmen that form a recruiting haul that’s widely considered one of the best ever. Well, talented as they may be, freshmen are still freshmen, and it takes time for them to adjust to a higher level of play. Just ask Harrison Barnes, not only the most highly-touted youngster in Roy Williams’ stable but so good that he was tabbed a preseason All-American (the first freshman to ever earn such an accolade). Barnes missed on nine of 12 field-goal attempts and finished with just eight points against Charleston on Sunday, dropping his shooting average to 35.2 percent.
Meanwhile, Illinois has a team that’s got just as much talent as North Carolina, but has a ton more experience and a lot more depth. Take senior guard Demetri McCarney, who averages 15 ppg, leads the nation with 54 assists and is averaging nearly four assists to every one turnover. Fellow guard Brandon Paul is averaging 11.4 ppg and leads the team with 16 steals.
McCarney and Paul are two of five players who are averaging more than 10 ppg for Illinois, which has slipped up just once this season (a 90-84 overtime loss to Texas in the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden last week). Illinois followed that defeat with three straight wins, and of the Illini’s six victories this season, five have been by 14 points or more (including four by 20-plus points).
Illinois has won 16 straight regular-season non-conference home games, including four wins this year by an average of 35 ppg (80-55) while shooting 53.1 percent and holding visitors to just 34.4 percent (26 percent from three-point range).
Bottom line: At some point this season, North Carolina – which was ranked as high as No. 8 two weeks ago and is no longer in the Top 25 – very well may pull it together and be a force come March. But right now, the young Tar Heels are not ready for prime time. Throw in the fact that UNC has failed to cover in 11 of its last 15 games as an underdog and nine of its last 11 as a road ‘dog of less than seven points, and I’ll confidently side with the more talented and experienced home team in this one.
NETS
Give the Knicks credit, as they’ve ripped off six wins in their last seven games to pull even on the season at 9-9 (and they’re on a 7-1 ATS run, too). However, New York’s hot streak comes with an asterisk, as the six victories were all by nine points or fewer (average margin of victory of 6.3 ppg), including Sunday’s 125-116 double-overtime win at Detroit.
In fact, the Knicks have played 11 straight games decided by single digits, and – what do you know – the underdog is 10-1 ATS over this stretch, with New York going 1-4 SU and ATS as a favorite (the Knicks have actually lost five of six outright as a chalk). The visitor is also 9-2 SU and ATS in the Knicks’ last 11 games, and for the season New York has lost five of seven at The Garden (2-4-1 ATS).
The Nets come into this one off Sunday’s impressive 98-96 upset win over the Blazers as a four-point underdog, giving them four spread-covers in their last five games and nine in their last 14 (going 9-3 ATS as an underdog over this span). And aside from a 102-86 loss in Philadelphia in its last recent game on the highway Friday night, New Jersey has been quite competitive on the road this year, with outright wins at the Cavs and Clippers, along with a six-point loss at Boston, a four-point loss at Denver and a five-point loss at Sacramento.
These neighboring rivals split their four meetings last year, with New Jersey cruising to outright upsets at home (104-95) and at The Garden (113-93). That puts the underdog at 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head series clashes. Chalk another up to the puppy tonight, as the Nets not only cover, they get the outright win.
1-0 yesterday.
Tuesday's Action
25 Dime college basketball release on ILLINOIS minus the points at home vs. North Carolina. The Illini are laying between 5 1/2 and 6 points depenoding on where you shop. As always, make sure you have multiple wagering options to ensure you get the best line value available.
10 Dime NBA release on the NETS plus the points at the rival Knicks. The Nets are ranging from a 4 to 5-point road undeedog, with the prevailing number being 4 1/2.
ILLINOIS
Both North Carolina and Illinois stumbled through incredibly disappointing seasons last year, with both winding up in the NIT. Well, through the first three weeks of this season, it’s apparent that one of these storied programs is poised for a huge bounce-back season … and it’s not North Carolina!
After opening up with easy wins over Lipscomb and Hofstra, the Tar Heels suffered consecutive upset losses to Minnesota (72-67) and Vanderbilt (72-65) in Puerto Rico, then returned to Chapel Hill and barely got past UNC-Ashville (nearly blowing a 22-point lead) and College of Charleston (UNC gave up 19 offensive rebounds and needed a 12-2 second-half run to put Charleston away 74-69, falling way short as 14-point home favorite).
North Carolina’s problem? It is relying heavily on a bevy of freshmen that form a recruiting haul that’s widely considered one of the best ever. Well, talented as they may be, freshmen are still freshmen, and it takes time for them to adjust to a higher level of play. Just ask Harrison Barnes, not only the most highly-touted youngster in Roy Williams’ stable but so good that he was tabbed a preseason All-American (the first freshman to ever earn such an accolade). Barnes missed on nine of 12 field-goal attempts and finished with just eight points against Charleston on Sunday, dropping his shooting average to 35.2 percent.
Meanwhile, Illinois has a team that’s got just as much talent as North Carolina, but has a ton more experience and a lot more depth. Take senior guard Demetri McCarney, who averages 15 ppg, leads the nation with 54 assists and is averaging nearly four assists to every one turnover. Fellow guard Brandon Paul is averaging 11.4 ppg and leads the team with 16 steals.
McCarney and Paul are two of five players who are averaging more than 10 ppg for Illinois, which has slipped up just once this season (a 90-84 overtime loss to Texas in the NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden last week). Illinois followed that defeat with three straight wins, and of the Illini’s six victories this season, five have been by 14 points or more (including four by 20-plus points).
Illinois has won 16 straight regular-season non-conference home games, including four wins this year by an average of 35 ppg (80-55) while shooting 53.1 percent and holding visitors to just 34.4 percent (26 percent from three-point range).
Bottom line: At some point this season, North Carolina – which was ranked as high as No. 8 two weeks ago and is no longer in the Top 25 – very well may pull it together and be a force come March. But right now, the young Tar Heels are not ready for prime time. Throw in the fact that UNC has failed to cover in 11 of its last 15 games as an underdog and nine of its last 11 as a road ‘dog of less than seven points, and I’ll confidently side with the more talented and experienced home team in this one.
NETS
Give the Knicks credit, as they’ve ripped off six wins in their last seven games to pull even on the season at 9-9 (and they’re on a 7-1 ATS run, too). However, New York’s hot streak comes with an asterisk, as the six victories were all by nine points or fewer (average margin of victory of 6.3 ppg), including Sunday’s 125-116 double-overtime win at Detroit.
In fact, the Knicks have played 11 straight games decided by single digits, and – what do you know – the underdog is 10-1 ATS over this stretch, with New York going 1-4 SU and ATS as a favorite (the Knicks have actually lost five of six outright as a chalk). The visitor is also 9-2 SU and ATS in the Knicks’ last 11 games, and for the season New York has lost five of seven at The Garden (2-4-1 ATS).
The Nets come into this one off Sunday’s impressive 98-96 upset win over the Blazers as a four-point underdog, giving them four spread-covers in their last five games and nine in their last 14 (going 9-3 ATS as an underdog over this span). And aside from a 102-86 loss in Philadelphia in its last recent game on the highway Friday night, New Jersey has been quite competitive on the road this year, with outright wins at the Cavs and Clippers, along with a six-point loss at Boston, a four-point loss at Denver and a five-point loss at Sacramento.
These neighboring rivals split their four meetings last year, with New Jersey cruising to outright upsets at home (104-95) and at The Garden (113-93). That puts the underdog at 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head series clashes. Chalk another up to the puppy tonight, as the Nets not only cover, they get the outright win.
