Sam Clayton
3* UNC at Illinois -5
If I've argued it once, I've argued it a thousand times: I'm confident that I know this Illinois basketball team better than almost anybody. They were fantastic fade materal two years ago and if you remember correctly, I said last season that the Illini were on the cusp of something special in 2010-11 --- and the time is now. Bruce Weber has one of the deepest, most talented and experienced teams in the entire country, yet nobody is talking about them. All I hear is Ohio State this, Michigan State that. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge advocate of the conference as a whole, but l cannot fathom this line or the underration of the best Illinois basketball team since their national runner-up season six years ago. Weber returns all five starters from last year's ballclub and Bill Cole is now seeing lesser minutes because of the insertion of Brandon Paul into the lineup and the emergence of freshman Jereme Richmond. It didn't take long for Weber to find fluidity with the rotation as he uses nine players, five of which are averaging double digits.
Meanwhile, in the blue corner, stands one of the most overrated teams in college basketball. Sure, on paper, all the McDonald's All-Americans and ESPN Top 100 recruits look immensely intriguing. Still, you simply cannot trust this unproven ballclub at one of the country's toughest venues against an upperclass-heavy Illinois team. These aren't the Tar Heels of 2005 or 2009 and while they aren't in full re-building mode, they are not ready to compete and hang with any Top 20 team. This opening number is nothing more than respect for Carolina, a program that has produced two national championships in the last six seasons. And boy is this bunch a far cry from those teams.
First off, the Heels don't even have a true go-to scorer. Tyler Zeller is averaging 15.5 points per game, but against who? How many true centers has he faced in Carolina's early going? The raw Nigerian kid from Vanderbilt that had ZERO footwork? The poor sophomore center from UNC-Asheville that played alongside four guards and got no defensive help on the low block? Pleaaase. Then there's pre-season All-American Harrison Barnes. Yes, he's really lived up to his hype scoring 11 points a game on 35 percent shooting . . . yawn. Illinois' sound backcourt will offer plenty of athleticism and length to counter Barnes, I can assure you that. You have to believe the Illini coaching staff has been studying film from the Minnesota game wherein Tubby Smith crafted a defensive game plan targeting Barnes (he scored 6 points). I'm not doubting Carolina's talent or speed because there is tons of potential. But this team is not executing, they aren't taking care of the orange and they are not going to cruise by a defensive-minded Illinois team at the Assembly Hall.
From a matchup standpoint, I love the way the Illinois guards matchup with the Tar Heel backcourt, especially at the point guard position. Demetri McCamey has transformed into one of the most versatile pointmen in America while his counterpart Larry Drew II is struggling to execute and make plays for his offense. He's still playing timid, he wants absolutely no part in scoring the rock (3.8 ppg) and his 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio is faaaar from special. Still, like most Illinois games, this one will be decided defensively, where I trust McCamey, Richardson, Paul and defensive specialist Cole to make things difficult for Barnes and Dexter Strickland.
In the trenches, Carolina has zero bangers on the low block. Zeller is an adept shooter, but a physical player he is not. Then there's John Henson, who is lucky to weigh 200 pounds dripping wet. The Carolina bigs will have a very difficult time establishing position on Mike Tisdale (7-1, 250) and Mike Davis (6-9, 225) not to mention Weber has the luxury of inserting Meyers Leonard (7-0, 240) into the fold to make the battle even harder. Illinois knows that defense --- notably winning the Windex --- will be the key. It's no coincidence the only game the Illini dropped this year was against Texas at the Garden where the orange and blue split the rebounding column and fell apart defensively in the second half letting the Horns shoot 44 total free throws.
Home court and team depth cannot be underestimated. Illinois has all the ingredients for a deep run in the NCAA tournament and they play exceptional basketball in Champaign. In past Big Ten/ACC Challenges at home, the Illini have knocked off higher ranked teams in 2002 (92-65 win over #12 UNC) and 2005 (91-73 W over #1 Wake) and ironically enough, the player matchups and personnel are eerily similar. Then there's the fact that the Illini bench has outscored the opposing bench by an average 15 points. Illinois is a very smart, very fundamental basketball team. They have an exceptional assist-to-turnover ratio, they are long and athletic on the defensive side of the ball and on offense they work the ball around for high percentage shots. I like a very decisive win for Illinois in front of a crazy, orange clad Assembly Hall.
3* UNC at Illinois -5
If I've argued it once, I've argued it a thousand times: I'm confident that I know this Illinois basketball team better than almost anybody. They were fantastic fade materal two years ago and if you remember correctly, I said last season that the Illini were on the cusp of something special in 2010-11 --- and the time is now. Bruce Weber has one of the deepest, most talented and experienced teams in the entire country, yet nobody is talking about them. All I hear is Ohio State this, Michigan State that. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge advocate of the conference as a whole, but l cannot fathom this line or the underration of the best Illinois basketball team since their national runner-up season six years ago. Weber returns all five starters from last year's ballclub and Bill Cole is now seeing lesser minutes because of the insertion of Brandon Paul into the lineup and the emergence of freshman Jereme Richmond. It didn't take long for Weber to find fluidity with the rotation as he uses nine players, five of which are averaging double digits.
Meanwhile, in the blue corner, stands one of the most overrated teams in college basketball. Sure, on paper, all the McDonald's All-Americans and ESPN Top 100 recruits look immensely intriguing. Still, you simply cannot trust this unproven ballclub at one of the country's toughest venues against an upperclass-heavy Illinois team. These aren't the Tar Heels of 2005 or 2009 and while they aren't in full re-building mode, they are not ready to compete and hang with any Top 20 team. This opening number is nothing more than respect for Carolina, a program that has produced two national championships in the last six seasons. And boy is this bunch a far cry from those teams.
First off, the Heels don't even have a true go-to scorer. Tyler Zeller is averaging 15.5 points per game, but against who? How many true centers has he faced in Carolina's early going? The raw Nigerian kid from Vanderbilt that had ZERO footwork? The poor sophomore center from UNC-Asheville that played alongside four guards and got no defensive help on the low block? Pleaaase. Then there's pre-season All-American Harrison Barnes. Yes, he's really lived up to his hype scoring 11 points a game on 35 percent shooting . . . yawn. Illinois' sound backcourt will offer plenty of athleticism and length to counter Barnes, I can assure you that. You have to believe the Illini coaching staff has been studying film from the Minnesota game wherein Tubby Smith crafted a defensive game plan targeting Barnes (he scored 6 points). I'm not doubting Carolina's talent or speed because there is tons of potential. But this team is not executing, they aren't taking care of the orange and they are not going to cruise by a defensive-minded Illinois team at the Assembly Hall.
From a matchup standpoint, I love the way the Illinois guards matchup with the Tar Heel backcourt, especially at the point guard position. Demetri McCamey has transformed into one of the most versatile pointmen in America while his counterpart Larry Drew II is struggling to execute and make plays for his offense. He's still playing timid, he wants absolutely no part in scoring the rock (3.8 ppg) and his 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio is faaaar from special. Still, like most Illinois games, this one will be decided defensively, where I trust McCamey, Richardson, Paul and defensive specialist Cole to make things difficult for Barnes and Dexter Strickland.
In the trenches, Carolina has zero bangers on the low block. Zeller is an adept shooter, but a physical player he is not. Then there's John Henson, who is lucky to weigh 200 pounds dripping wet. The Carolina bigs will have a very difficult time establishing position on Mike Tisdale (7-1, 250) and Mike Davis (6-9, 225) not to mention Weber has the luxury of inserting Meyers Leonard (7-0, 240) into the fold to make the battle even harder. Illinois knows that defense --- notably winning the Windex --- will be the key. It's no coincidence the only game the Illini dropped this year was against Texas at the Garden where the orange and blue split the rebounding column and fell apart defensively in the second half letting the Horns shoot 44 total free throws.
Home court and team depth cannot be underestimated. Illinois has all the ingredients for a deep run in the NCAA tournament and they play exceptional basketball in Champaign. In past Big Ten/ACC Challenges at home, the Illini have knocked off higher ranked teams in 2002 (92-65 win over #12 UNC) and 2005 (91-73 W over #1 Wake) and ironically enough, the player matchups and personnel are eerily similar. Then there's the fact that the Illini bench has outscored the opposing bench by an average 15 points. Illinois is a very smart, very fundamental basketball team. They have an exceptional assist-to-turnover ratio, they are long and athletic on the defensive side of the ball and on offense they work the ball around for high percentage shots. I like a very decisive win for Illinois in front of a crazy, orange clad Assembly Hall.
