Joe Gavazzi
LA Angels (Shoemaker) (-1 ½ R, +135) at Boston Red Sox (Delarosa) 7:10 ET
3% LA Angels (-1 ½ R, +135)
We won with the LA Angels last night in this very spot, as they cruised to an 8-3 victory. That cements LAA’s MLB best record of 75-50 as they look forward to their weekend series with Oakland for divisional superiority. Yet, the victory for LAA was bittersweet, as they lost one of their best starters, Richards, to a knee injury (perhaps for the season). That will necessitate that fellow rookie starter, Shoemaker, step up to fill the void left by Richards. In ascending to the top spot in MLB, the Angels are on runs of 38-17, 7-1 recently, including a 3-game sweep of Boston by combined score of 16-8 in this week’s games. The defending champion Red Sox have looked like anything but! After relinquishing themselves from the contracts of their top 3 starting pitchers, the Red Sox have gone 9-18 to fall to 56-70 for the year. Their lack of timely hitting has been characterized by going to 4-32 with RISP in the first three games of this set.
It is clear that Delarosa has pitched his best baseball from this mound. In 6 starts, over 36 IP, Delarosa has a 3.25 ERA. His most recent outing, however, was a busted start from this mound. In that game, Delarosa lasted just 4 innings allowing 6 runs on 9 hits with an inverted 2/4 KBB. Despite that poor performance, the Red Sox emerged with a 10-7 victory vs. Houston, leaving Delarosa with a false sense of confidence. Knowing that Richards is out for the count, Shoemaker will be eager to step up his game. Most notable on the YTD log of Shoemaker is the fact that LAA has won 10/14 of his starts, while he has an outstanding 93/18 KBB. In earlier articles available at Winning Sports Advice.com, I prove that there is a direct correlation between a pitcher’s TRGS and a better than 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. Though Shoemaker has struggled on the road with a 5.70 ERA in 36 1/3 IP, he has been backed by 9.6 RPG support in those outings. That bloated ERA figures to improve tonight based on Shoemaker’s current form. Both, he and LAA, have won 4/5 of Shoemaker’s recent starts. In that span, Shoemaker has worked 26 2/3 IP, allowing just 7 runs on 21 hits with a 21/3 KBB.
Run line players must note the continued excellence of the Angels. In fact, 28/34 (that’s 82 %!) of LAA’s road wins have come by 2 or more runs.
Must make this play on the run line, at the value laden underdog price, with the confidence that this ROAD WARRIOR, with the best record in baseball, will continue to excel in this situation against a fading champion, who is going nowhere!
