Service Plays Thursday 8/21/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider

Braves at Reds

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Teheran (11-9, 3.06 ERA)
CIN: Holmberg (0-0, 16.88 ERA)

Previous series recap: In spite of last night’s 3-2 loss at Pittsburgh, the Braves have won five of their past six games. Atlanta grabbed two of three at PNC Park, which included scoring 18 runs in the two victories as a heavy underdog. The Reds wrapped up a horrific road trip by getting swept at St. Louis, as Cincinnati lost the first two contests in walk-off fashion. On Wednesday, Cincinnati was routed at Busch Stadium, 7-3, cashing the ‘over’ six times during the seven-game trip at Colorado and St. Louis.

What to watch for: The Braves pulled off a three-game sweep of the Reds at Turner Field in late April, which included two victories by one run. Atlanta has lost three of Julio Teheran’s last four road starts, while tossing eight scoreless innings in a 1-0 triumph over Cincinnati in the series finale back in April. The Reds have dropped four of their past five home series openers, while Cincinnati owns a dreadful 3-9 record as a home underdog this season.

Angels at Red Sox

Probable Pitchers:
LAA: Shoemaker (11-4, 3.84 ERA)
BOS: De La Rosa (4-4, 3.79 ERA)

Series recap: The Angels have captured the first three games of this series, as Los Angeles erased a 3-0 deficit in Wednesday’s 8-3 blowout of Boston as -120 favorites. The Halos overcame the loss of ace Garrett Richards to a left patellar injury when he attempted to cover first base on a play in the second inning, as the right-hander will likely miss the rest of the season (and postseason).

What to watch for: The last time the Red Sox beat the Angels came back on August 10 in Anaheim, as Rubby De La Rosa scattered five hits and one earned run in a 3-1 victory as a +140 underdog. Boston has not been a good team to back when avoiding a home sweep, posting an 0-5 record in this situation. Last night’s high-scoring affair snapped a six-game ‘under’ streak for the Angels, while L.A. is 1-4 in five opportunities to sweep a road series of at least three games this season.

Giants at Cubs

Probable Pitchers:
SF: Bumgarner (13-9, 3.14 ERA)
CHC: Wood (7-10, 4.86 ERA)

Series recap: The Cubs thought they had won the first game of this series, 2-0 in just five innings on Tuesday night. A storm came through Wrigley Field and after a 4 ½-hour delay, the game was called in Chicago’s favor. However, the Giants filed a protest and the game will be resumed this afternoon, which is key for San Francisco’s chances at the playoffs. San Francisco came out on Wednesday swinging the hot bats, scoring four early runs in an 8-3 rout of Chicago as -130 road favorites, as Jake Peavy won his first road start in 11 tries.

What to watch for: The Giants have put together an 8-2 record this season when Madison Bumgarner starts in role of a road favorite, with both losses coming at Colorado. The Cubs are 5-3 in Travis Wood’s last eight starts as a home underdog, while winning at San Francisco last August as a +130 road underdog, 2-1. San Francisco has dropped four of its past five games against left-handed starting pitchers, while posting a 1-5 mark in its previous six road series finales.

Padres at Dodgers

Probable Pitchers:
SD: Ross (11-11, 2.70 ERA)
LAD: Kershaw (14-3, 1.86 ERA)

Series recap: These two teams have split the first two games of this series, as the Padres took care of the Dodgers on Wednesday, 4-1 as +125 underdogs. Los Angeles overcame a 3-0 deficit in the series opener on Tuesday, 8-6 as a short favorite, as the Dodgers are 4-2 in six home contests against the Padres this season.

What to watch for: The Dodgers lost with Clayton Kershaw for the first time in 14 starts in his previous appearance against Milwaukee as a -185 home favorite, 3-2, in spite of the ace tossing a complete game. The Padres have found a way to have some success against Kershaw since last season, going 3-2, including a pair of wins at Dodger Stadium as a +200 underdog or higher. San Diego owns a 2-6 record in Tyson Ross’ eight starts as a road underdog, which includes a 1-0 defeat at Chavez Ravine in mid-July.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steelers vs. Eagles Betting Preview and Pick
By: Craig Williams
Sportingnews

The Steelers and Eagles meet in a Keystone State preseason battle on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network), with Las Vegas bookmakers opening Philadelphia as a field goal-plus favorite. The total here is remarkably high for an exhibition contest.

Line: Eagles -3.5, Total: 50

Line movement and notes: As of Wednesday afternoon, neither the point spread nor the total has wavered much, as -3.5 and 50 have been the consensus numbers across town all week. The LVH, though, is flashing 51.5 for the total. For updated spreads and total, visit our live odds board.

The total is the largest posted throughout the postseason so far, thanks largely to the Eagles' up-tempo, high-scoring offense, as well as a generous defense. They've put up an average of 31.5 points -- but have allowed 38 ppg -- in preseason losses to the Bears and Patriots, and have hit the OVER in five of six preseason contests under head coach Chip Kelly dating back to last season.

Actually winning and covering preseason contests is another story. The Eagles are 2-4 straight-up and against the spread in exhibition games under Kelly.

Philly is expected to have all of its starting wide receivers -- Jeremy Maclin (hamstring), Riley Cooper (ankle) and Jordan Matthews -- available when it kicks off against the Steelers. Quarterback Nick Foles hasn't yet been able to go to work with all of his weapons.

On getting his full complement of receivers back, Foles offered, "It's a big deal, yeah. In the NFL you need to have timing, you need to have accuracy. When this guy is out and then this guy is out, it's tough to build on that."

Last season's rushing leader, LeSean McCoy is also expected to suit up and play a half of action despite suffering a minor toe injury, reaction to which became overblown. "I don't think he'll ever play again," Kelly joked, before conceding that the injury was not a big deal and that McCoy will be fine.

The Steelers, in general, have been a money-losing preseason proposition, going 1-5 SU and ATS since last season. But they seem to get more serious about the third week of the exhibition slate -- a dress rehearsal of sorts for the regular season, as starters play well into the thrid quarter -- when they are 5-2 under coach Mike Tomlin.

They've been consistent with the total, playing to the UNDER in five of their last six preseason contests.

Their 19-16 win against Buffalo last week -- their first preseason victory since 2012 -- was sparked by both their defense and a no-huddle offense that helped turn things around in the second half of last season.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger isn't sure how much of the no-huddle offensive coordinator Todd Haley will employ on the road, but it will be their final opportunity in the preseason to run their up-tempo offense in hostile territory.

While the Eagles have averaged over 31 points through two preseason games, the Steelers have scored a total of 35. The effectiveness of Pittsburgh's first-team offense last week suggests they're capable of more, though.

The Linemakers' lean: The first angle to look at here is the posted total of 50, which is understandably high considering the Eagles' defense has given up 76 points in two preseason games. The Eagles' offense has also put points on the board, but there should be a little more resistance from an improved Steelers defense, both their first and second stringers.

The Steelers have been running their no-huddle almost exclusively while Roethlisberger has been in the game. That doesn’t necessarily mean a faster pace, as they have made a point of running the ball more and keeping the clock going. So we caution those jumping on the OVER again with Philly. We look for a lower-scoring game, and we'll take the points with the Steelers. Mike Tomlin takes the dress rehearsal game seriously -- he's 5-2 in Week 3 of the preseason over his career.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Looking Back…
By Ross Benjamin
Playbook

The Home Teams

Home teams cooled off a bit in week 2 of the preseason. After going a terrific 14-2 straight up in the opening week, home teams went just 10-6 in week 2. Home teams also went a red-hot 12-3-1 ATS in the opening week of the preseason, and fell to 6-10 ATS last week. Home favorites of 2.0 or more have gone 20-4 straight up so far in the 2014 preseason. Home teams went 2-6 ATS last week if they scored 10-points or less in their previous game. Home teams have now gone 24-8 straight up and 18-13-1 ATS overall in 2014.

Road Teams

Away teams went a stellar 8-3 ATS in week 2 if they scored 22-points or less in their previous game. Road teams saw all 5 of their games go over the total last week if they scored 22-points or more in their previous game, and those 5-contests averaged 60.2 points per outing.

The Scoring

We’ve seen 12-games so far in the 2014 preseason that had a total of 37.5 or less, and 10 of those 12 have gone under the total. We’ve seen 3 teams top the 40-point barrier so far in 2014, with 2 of those coming last week. Seattle crushed San Diego at home 41-14, and New England won at Foxboro 42-35 over Philadelphia in what was the most entertaining game of the week. Kansas City was a 41-39 winner in the opening week at home versus Cincinnati.

Bouncing Back from an Upset Loss

Teams were 3-0 ATS last week if they were coming off a straight up favorite loss in their previous game. Houston was a 32-7 winner over Atlanta while easily covering as a 3-point favorite. The Texans were shellacked the week before 32-0 as a 1.5 point favorite at Arizona. The Carolina Panthers were a 28-16 winner over Kansas City and covered as a 3.0-point favorite. The Panthers were knocked off 20-18 at home in the opening week as a 1.0 point favorite by Buffalo. Finally Cleveland covered as a 2.0 point underdog in a 24-23 loss at Washington. The week before the Browns lost 13-12 at Detroit as a 1.5 point favorite.

Looking Ahead to Week 3

Week 3 preseason contests have traditionally been labeled as dress rehearsal games. This is the week that the starters on each team will see their most extensive action, in preparation for the upcoming regular season. We usually see teams actually game plan a bit for the opponent they’re about to face in Week 3, and that’s usually the only time that particular practice takes place during the entire preseason. Granted there are always exceptions to the rule, but in the vast majority of instances, week 3 of the preseason most closely resembles a regular season game.

Closing Thoughts

I will leave you with this for future years to come. Since 2004, any away favorite of 5.0 or less that’s playing in game 3 of the preseason, and is coming off a straight up loss in their previous game, has gone 15-4 ATS (78.9%). Those away favorites have also won 17 of those 19-games straight up.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Eagles -3.5

Nationals(RL) -1.5(+115)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Steelers at Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 50)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have more to deal with than just their in-state rivals Thursday night as they tangle with the host Philadelphia Eagles in the kickoff to Week 3 of the NFL preseason. Steelers running backs LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount face marijuana charges after being stopped shortly before the Steelers left for Philadelphia. Bell reportedly didn't accompany the team after being arrested, but made the trip on his own; Blount did travel with the club.

With their statuses in limbo, 2014 draft pick Dri Archer may find himself thrust into the spotlight. Archer has had just four carries through the team's first two preseason games, but he has flashed some impressive skills in the receiving game with four catches for a whopping 94 yards. The Eagles will be looking to tighten up the defense after getting torched for 76 points in preseason-opening losses to the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady at Philadelphia -3, while the over/under has risen one point to 50.

INJURY REPORT: Pittsburgh: CB Shaquille Richardson (knee), LB Greg Warren (knee), G Cody Wallace (finger), LB Jordan Zumwalt (groin), TE Eric Waters (concussion) and G Bryant Browning (shoulder) are all out. Philadelphia: C Julian Vandervelde (back), LB Bryan Braman (back), CB Jaylen Watkins (hamstring), ILB Jake Knott (hamstring), RB Chris Polk (hamstring), WR Josh Huff (shoulder) and WR Brad Smith (groin) are expected to miss the game.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (0-2): Philadelphia has hemorrhaged points over the first eight quarters of the preseason, but that won't keep head coach Chip Kelly from executing his gameplan regarding key players and their playing time. That approach will see the Eagles face Pittsburgh without inside linebacker and defensive lynch pin DeMeco Ryans, who has started all 32 regular-season games since joining the team in a 2012 trade with Houston. Kelly wants to give the 30-year-old Ryans sufficient rest heading into the campaign.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (1-1): Pittsburgh will need to refocus in the wake of the Bell and Blount arrests, and will look to do that by taking the shackles off the first-team offense in what will likely be quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's last significant tuneup before the regular season starts. Roethlisberger will likely play the entire first half against the Eagles, and is expected to get a chance to run the no-huddle offense that Pittsburgh wants to use more often this season. Roethlisberger went 8-of-11 for 128 yards and two TDs in last week's win over Buffalo.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh has dropped five of its last six preseason games.
* Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS over its last six exhibition games after going 6-1-1 ATS over its previous eight.
* The Steelers are 1-6 O/U in their last seven exhibition contests.

CONSENSUS: 62.15 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the host Eagles.

 

[cowboyup]

Cappers Finest

Prez: Dbacks 1st 5, 2 units
Prez: Dbacks, 2 units
Prez: Nats/Backs Over 7.5
Pre: Angels, 2 units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LCM Sports

Braves

 

[sponge3000]

Burns' VERY EARLY TOTAL BREAKFAST CLUB: Game: Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays Aug 21 2014 1:10PM
Prediction: under This is an 8* play
Burns' Thursday MLB ROAST!:Game: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Aug 21 2014 10:10PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 8* play

 

[wilman]

Any Rochestertitans for today ??? Thanks in Advance !!!!!

 

[Mosi]

Giants win protest; game at Wrigley will resume

The San Francisco Giants will get another shot at the Chicago Cubs after Major League Baseball reversed the umpires' decision to end Tuesday's game after 4 1/2 innings due to unplayable field conditions at Wrigley Field.

Baseball officials on Wednesday agreed with the Giants' protest and called for the game to be resumed Thursday at 4:05 p.m. CT.

The Cubs confirmed the game would pick up with the hosts coming to bat in bottom of the fifth inning with a 2-0 lead.

The regularly scheduled series finale will follow at approximately 7:05 p.m.

Since it has been 20 some odd years since a protest was upheld, how was it treated in Vegas? I assume all totals were cancelled and Cubs backers prevailed since they originally called it a complete game after 4.5 innings. Interesting situation, and I am sure frustrating for San Fran backers. Can anyone confirm the game was considered final and the Cubs got the money?

 

[Mosi]

Falcon Sports

LA Angels -125 listing Shoemaker/DeLaRosa

 

[Mosi]

Bob Balfe

Eagles -3.5

How focused can the starting two running backs for Pittsburgh be if they are caught in a car together with a ton of pot. Don’t get me wrong I think this country should worry about more severe things than guys catching a little puff from time to time, but laws are laws and these guys are dumb dumbs. I don’t know if the Steelers are going to play these two tonight, but there is a good chance they hold them out. If that is the case you have to love the Eagles chances with the rest of the Steelers backs having no experience. The Eagles have yet to get their high powered offense going, but trust me it is coming. There is no way the same unit from last year with a few upgrades is not going to prosper. This team just doesn’t need to give anything away on film. Tonight they should put up some points on declining Steelers Defense. Take the Eagles

 

[RANGERDOG]

Now, let's get to today's MLB system bet! Today marks the final official betting series of this season. As stated in the system manual, we stop betting after August 23. Here is the MLB system bet for August 21:
Cincinnati {A} bet - This is an official MLB system bet that passes all the filters of the system!
All the best,
Tony the sports betting "Champ

 

[Mosi]

BookieMonster Money Generator Plays

Arizona +1.5 -140
Boston +113
Minnesota +128

 

[Mosi]

Sportswagers

L.A. Angels @ BOSTON
L.A. Angels -1½ +138 over BOSTON

Their leading hitter at .294 is Brock Holt, who bats leadoff and is currently in a 0-8 slump. The bottom four in the order are hitting .194, .250, .225 and .214 respectively. Cleanup hitter, Yoenis Céspedes, the dude they traded Jon Lester for, is batting .252 on the year but has just five hits in his past 27 AB’s and hasn’t had more than one hit in a game in his last 15 games. There’s a good chance that both Mike Napoli and David Ortiz will sit this one out, as both have minor injuries and Napoli missed last night. The Red Sox are down to their third string catcher, David Ross. Xander Bogaerts has one hit in his last 19 AB’s. Boston has dropped four in a row and five of six with its only victory over that span coming against the Astros. Rubby De La Rosa gets this start and he’s done his best work at Fenway Park. In six starts at home, De La Rosa is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA. However, that is where the positives end, as only one of his past seven starts were of the pure quality variety. De La Rosa has a 14/15 BB/K split over his past 27 innings. He has a WHIP of 1.93 over his past five starts. His swinging strike rate is getting worse, as batters are starting to lay off his pitches because he can’t throw strikes. De La Rosa fooled some Angels on August 10 in Anaheim but he’s not going to fool them again now that they’ve seen him. Over his last seven starts, De La Rosa has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.83 xERA. His actual ERA of 3.79 on the year and 3.25 ERA at home is nothing but fool’s gold.

By contrast, Matt Shoemaker has been very consistent for a rookie pitcher, allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Four of his six starts on the road have resulted in pure quality starts. Shoemaker is 5-1 on the road with an unappealing 5.70 ERA but his high ERA away from the “Big A” is a direct result of unfortunate hit and strand rates. In 42 innings since July 1, Shoemaker is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.24 xERA, 8.6 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 44% groundball rate. The Angels have a big edge offensively, they have an edge on the mound with a pitcher that throws strikes opposing one that doesn’t and from a state of mind standpoint, L.A.’s edge is massive. Get out the brooms.

Our Pick
L.A. Angels -1½ +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)

 

[Mosi]

Sportswagers

Atlanta @ CINCINNATI
Atlanta -1½ +109 over CINCINNATI

The Reds have two wins over their past 12 games and both victories occurred with Johnny Cueto starting. Cincinnati has also lost five straight and the pitching staff has allowed 38 runs over that span. The bullpen is not only garbage but they’re also running on fumes and they figure to be needed early in this one. Enter David Holmberg, who is ready to serve as an emergency call-up due to last Sunday's doubleheader. His only other start this season was also the result of a doubleheader. Holmberg started the back end on July 8, allowing five earned runs and three jacks in just 2.2 innings. His results at AAA-Louisville don't warrant a promotion. In 17 starts at Louisville, covering 87.1 innings, Holmberg went 1-6 with a BB/K split of 32/50, a 4.64 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Holmberg is a lefty and the Braves .267 BA against southpaws on the road is the second best mark in the NL. After this game, Holmberg will be headed back down to Louisville and he may never return.

Julio Teheran is a case study in why post-hype targets can be profit centers. This former top prospect's K surge came with full swing and miss support and his three years of improving control tells us he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, even if xERA points towards some minor regression. In 177 innings, Teheran has a BB/K split of 41/153. Current Reds have just seven hits in 38 career AB’s against Teheran for a BA of just .184. There’s a good chance that Teheran will be throwing some easy innings if the Braves score early. Judging by Holmberg’s brutal profile, only severe good fortune will prevent the Braves from scoring early and often.

Our Pick
Atlanta -1½ +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)

 

[Ironhorse]

Matt Rivers
Top-Rated 500,000♦ Release
Tigers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Balfe

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

How focused can the starting two running backs for Pittsburgh be if they are caught in a car together with a ton of pot. Don’t get me wrong I think this country should worry about more severe things than guys catching a little puff from time to time, but laws are laws and these guys are dumb dumbs. I don’t know if the Steelers are going to play these two tonight, but there is a good chance they hold them out. If that is the case you have to love the Eagles chances with the rest of the Steelers backs having no experience. The Eagles have yet to get their high powered offense going, but trust me it is coming. There is no way the same unit from last year with a few upgrades is not going to prosper. This team just doesn’t need to give anything away on film. Tonight they should put up some points on declining Steelers Defense.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS


L.A. Angels -1½ +138 over BOSTON


Their leading hitter at .294 is Brock Holt, who bats leadoff and is currently in a 0-8 slump. The bottom four in the order are hitting .194, .250, .225 and .214 respectively. Cleanup hitter, Yoenis Céspedes, the dude they traded Jon Lester for, is batting .252 on the year but has just five hits in his past 27 AB’s and hasn’t had more than one hit in a game in his last 15 games. There’s a good chance that both Mike Napoli and David Ortiz will sit this one out, as both have minor injuries and Napoli missed last night. The Red Sox are down to their third string catcher, David Ross. Xander Bogaerts has one hit in his last 19 AB’s. Boston has dropped four in a row and five of six with its only victory over that span coming against the Astros. Rubby De La Rosa gets this start and he’s done his best work at Fenway Park. In six starts at home, De La Rosa is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA. However, that is where the positives end, as only one of his past seven starts were of the pure quality variety. De La Rosa has a 14/15 BB/K split over his past 27 innings. He has a WHIP of 1.93 over his past five starts. His swinging strike rate is getting worse, as batters are starting to lay off his pitches because he can’t throw strikes. De La Rosa fooled some Angels on August 10 in Anaheim but he’s not going to fool them again now that they’ve seen him. Over his last seven starts, De La Rosa has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.83 xERA. His actual ERA of 3.79 on the year and 3.25 ERA at home is nothing but fool’s gold.


By contrast, Matt Shoemaker has been very consistent for a rookie pitcher, allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Four of his six starts on the road have resulted in pure quality starts. Shoemaker is 5-1 on the road with an unappealing 5.70 ERA but his high ERA away from the “Big A” is a direct result of unfortunate hit and strand rates. In 42 innings since July 1, Shoemaker is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.24 xERA, 8.6 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 44% groundball rate. The Angels have a big edge offensively, they have an edge on the mound with a pitcher that throws strikes opposing one that doesn’t and from a state of mind standpoint, L.A.’s edge is massive. Get out the brooms.




Atlanta -1½ +109 over CINCINNATI


The Reds have two wins over their past 12 games and both victories occurred with Johnny Cueto starting. Cincinnati has also lost five straight and the pitching staff has allowed 38 runs over that span. The bullpen is not only garbage but they’re also running on fumes and they figure to be needed early in this one. Enter David Holmberg, who is ready to serve as an emergency call-up due to last Sunday's doubleheader. His only other start this season was also the result of a doubleheader. Holmberg started the back end on July 8, allowing five earned runs and three jacks in just 2.2 innings. His results at AAA-Louisville don't warrant a promotion. In 17 starts at Louisville, covering 87.1 innings, Holmberg went 1-6 with a BB/K split of 32/50, a 4.64 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Holmberg is a lefty and the Braves .267 BA against southpaws on the road is the second best mark in the NL. After this game, Holmberg will be headed back down to Louisville and he may never return.


Julio Teheran is a case study in why post-hype targets can be profit centers. This former top prospect's K surge came with full swing and miss support and his three years of improving control tells us he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, even if xERA points towards some minor regression. In 177 innings, Teheran has a BB/K split of 41/153. Current Reds have just seven hits in 38 career AB’s against Teheran for a BA of just .184. There’s a good chance that Teheran will be throwing some easy innings if the Braves score early. Judging by Holmberg’s brutal profile, only severe good fortune will prevent the Braves from scoring early and often.


Pass NFL

 

[cowboyup]

Cappers Finest

Prez: TB Rays, 3 units
CoversNuggs: Rays, 2 units
BigNickShow: NY Yankees 1st 5, -.5 RL