STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB PITCHING REPORT
THURSDAY, AUGUST 21st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#951 ARIZONA @ #952 WASHINGTON - 4:05 PM
•Diamondbacks LH Wade Miley (7-9, 4.46 ERA, WHIP: 1.292) - Miley fell to 0-2 in his last three starts Saturday at Miami despite allowing only two runs - one earned - and four hits over seven innings. The 27-year-old has won just once in his last five outings after going 3-0 during an eight-start unbeaten streak. Miley is 1-2 in four career turns against Washington, yielding seven earned runs over 24 1/3 frames.
--KEY STAT: MILEY is 15-4 against the run line (+12.4 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILEY 4.2, OPPONENT 3.0.
--MILEY is 16-5 UNDER (+10.2 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILEY 3.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
•Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (6-9, 4.06 ERA, WHIP: 1.327) - Gonzalez enters with a seven-game winless streak during which he has suffered five losses but allowed more than three earned runs only twice. The 28-year-old settled for a no-decision against Pittsburgh on Saturday after yielding three runs and seven hits in five innings. Gonzalez won both of his previous career outings versus Arizona, giving up a total of three runs over 13 1/3 frames.
--KEY STAT: GONZALEZ is 31-12 (+16.8 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.2, OPPONENT 3.1.
--GONZALEZ is 1-9 against the run line (-9.0 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 2.7, OPPONENT 4.7.
--GONZALEZ is 4-14 against the run line (-11.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 3.8.
--GONZALEZ is 23-9 OVER (+13.2 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.6, OPPONENT 3.5.
--GONZALEZ is 18-6 OVER (+11.8 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.9, OPPONENT 3.5.
#953 ATLANTA @ #954 CINCINNATI - 7:10 PM
•Braves RH Julio Teheran (11-9, 3.06 ERA, WHIP: 1.093) - Teheran shut down a potent Oakland lineup last time out, limiting the Athletics to two runs over six innings to snap a three-start losing streak. The 23-year-old Colombian has struggled away from home, going 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 13 road starts. Teheran is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against the Reds, but he tossed eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball in a no-decision against them April 27.
--KEY STAT: TEHERAN is 20-8 UNDER (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.7, OPPONENT 3.1.
--TEHERAN is 26-12 UNDER (+12.1 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.3, OPPONENT 3.4.
•Reds LH David Holmberg (0-0, 16.88 ERA, WHIP: 3.745) - Holmberg will get the call from Triple-A Louisville to make his third big-league start and his second of the season. The 23-year-old's Reds' debut was a rough one, as he was tagged for five runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings July 8 against the Chicago Cubs. Holmberg has not made it out of the fourth inning in either of his major-league outings.
#955 SAN FRANCISCO @ #956 CHICAGO CUBS - 8:05 PM
•Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (13-9, 3.14 ERA, WHIP: 1.136) - Bumgarner has recorded quality starts in three straight outings and five of his last six, but he didn't get a victory last time out. The 25-year-old struck out nine and allowed just one run over seven innings but didn't get a decision in a 5-3 loss to Philadelphia. Bumgarner is 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in eight starts against the Cubs, including a 2-2 mark and 3.42 ERA in four outings at Wrigley Field.
--KEY STAT: BUMGARNER is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 6.0, OPPONENT 1.3.
--BUMGARNER is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 6.0, OPPONENT 1.3.
--BUMGARNER is 9-1 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUMGARNER 5.5, OPPONENT 1.8.
•Cubs LH Travis Wood (7-10, 4.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.525) - Wood's winless streak has reached 11 starts dating to a victory at Philadelphia on June 15. The 27-year-old was an All-Star last season but has struggled to command the strike zone this year and issued four walks while allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the New York Mets on Friday. Wood is 1-2 with a 3.41 ERA in five starts against the Giants.
--KEY STAT: WOOD is 1-10 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOOD 3.1, OPPONENT 5.5.
--WOOD is 5-17 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOOD 3.5, OPPONENT 4.7.
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#957 SAN DIEGO @ #958 LA DODGERS - 10:10 PM
•Padres RH Tyson Ross (11-11, 2.70 ERA, WHIP: 1.194) - Ross had a four-decision winning streak halted when he lost to St. Louis in his last turn. He gave up three runs and five hits against the Cardinals in a contest that ended a stretch of 10 starts in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs. Ross has a solid 2.84 ERA in three starts against Los Angeles this season but lost each of them and is 0-4 with a 2.91 ERA in seven career appearances (five starts) against the Dodgers.
--KEY STAT: ROSS is 19-6 UNDER (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ROSS 2.7, OPPONENT 3.1.
--ROSS is 14-5 UNDER (+8.2 Units) in night games this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ROSS 3.5, OPPONENT 3.4.
•Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (14-3, 1.86 ERA, WHIP: 0.833) - Kershaw is 10-6 with a 2.38 ERA in 22 career starts against the Padres, including a complete game July 10 in which he struck out 11 and gave up one run on three hits. He had an 11-game winning streak snapped in his last outing when he gave up three runs and five hits and struck out 11 while going the distance against Milwaukee. Kershaw is 6-2 with a 1.94 ERA in 10 home starts this season.
--KEY STAT: KERSHAW is 18-2 (+14.8 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 4.1, OPPONENT 1.7.
--KERSHAW is 16-5 UNDER (+10.3 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 4.2, OPPONENT 2.1.
#959 HOUSTON @ #960 NY YANKEES - 1:05 PM
•Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (10-8, 3.11 ERA, WHIP: 1.222) - Keuchel gave up three runs over seven innings at Boston last time out but remained winless over his last three starts and has won only once in six turns since the All-Star break. Keuchel has surrendered one home run in each of his last four outings after yielding a total of six in his first 19 starts of the season. Although he is 7-3 with a 3.17 ERA away from home, Keuchel has only one win over his last seven road starts.
--KEY STAT: KEUCHEL is 8-0 against the run line (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 6.4, OPPONENT 3.5.
--KEUCHEL is 15-4 against the run line (+10.7 Units) in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.9, OPPONENT 4.2.
--KEUCHEL is 16-6 OVER (+9.5 Units) as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.8, OPPONENT 5.7.
•Yankees RH Brandon McCarthy (7-12, 4.24 ERA, WHIP: 1.343) - McCarthy has dropped back-to-back outings following a four-start winning streak, although the Yankees didn't help him out by failing to score in each of the losses. Still, McCarthy has permitted two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine turns and is 4-2 with a 2.30 ERA since he was acquired from Arizona. He is 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA against the Astros, but was tagged for five runs in six innings in a loss at Houston on June 11.
--KEY STAT: MCCARTHY is 5-13 (-11.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCCARTHY 2.9, OPPONENT 4.3.
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#961 CLEVELAND @ #962 MINNESOTA - 1:10 PM
•Indians RH Corey Kluber (13-6, 2.41 ERA, WHIP: 1.065) - Kluber has been brilliant of late, allowing a total of two earned runs in 39 innings over his last five outings. The 28-year-old earned the win in each of his last six decisions and notched his eighth double-digit strikeout game with 10 K’s against Baltimore on Friday. Kluber is making his first start of the season against Minnesota and owns a 2-1 record with a 4.82 ERA in seven career starts against the division rivals.
--KEY STAT: KLUBER is 21-7 (+13.2 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KLUBER 5.5, OPPONENT 3.4.
--KLUBER is 17-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KLUBER 5.5, OPPONENT 2.7.
--KLUBER is 17-3 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KLUBER 6.0, OPPONENT 3.0.
--KLUBER is 18-7 OVER (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KLUBER 6.1, OPPONENT 4.8.
•Twins RH Phil Hughes (13-8, 3.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.209) - Hughes has been nearly as sharp with three runs allowed in 20 1/3 innings over his last three starts - all wins. The California native did not issue a walk in 7 1/3 innings against Kansas City on Saturday and has walked a total of 15 batters in 158 innings. Hughes last faced Cleveland as a member of the New York Yankees on June 26, 2012, and walked one over eight scoreless innings to earn a win.
--KEY STAT: HUGHES is 11-3 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUGHES 4.5, OPPONENT 2.9.
--HUGHES is 10-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUGHES 6.3, OPPONENT 3.9.
--HUGHES is 14-4 UNDER (+9.4 Units) after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUGHES 3.8, OPPONENT 2.8.
#963 DETROIT @ #964 TAMPA BAY - 1:10 PM
•Tigers LH David Price (12-8, 3.12 ERA, WHIP: 1.040) - Price has permitted eight runs over 22 2/3 innings since joining the Tigers after beating Seattle in his last start, giving up one run over eight frames. The Vanderbilt product leads the majors in strikeouts with 212, but is tied for the AL lead in home runs allowed (23). Rays shortstop Yunel Escobar owns a homer in his career against Price, who is 6 2/3 frames from his fourth 200-inning season in the last five.
--KEY STAT: PRICE is 16-35 against the run line (-18.6 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 4.0, OPPONENT 4.0.
--PRICE is 18-36 against the run line (-17.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PRICE 3.9, OPPONENT 4.0.
•Rays RH Alex Cobb (8-6, 3.19 ERA, WHIP: 1.176) - Cobb boasts a 2.24 ERA during his nine-game unbeaten streak and has not surrendered a home run in five straight outings. The 26-year-old limited opponents to one run or less in four of his last five starts, including last Friday when he tossed 7 1/3 scoreless frames to beat the New York Yankees. Cobb yielded three runs over five innings to defeat the Tigers on July 4 and is 1-1 in four lifetime starts against them.
--KEY STAT: COBB is 13-4 against the run line (+11.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COBB 4.2, OPPONENT 2.5.
--COBB is 16-5 UNDER (+10.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COBB 3.8, OPPONENT 2.3.
#965 LA ANGELS @ #966 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Angels RH Matt Shoemaker (11-4, 3.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.188) - Shoemaker is poised to step up in Richards’ absence and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 10 appearances. The Michigan native earned a win at Texas on Saturday by holding the Rangers to two runs on four hits while striking out six in 5 2/3 innings. Shoemaker came out of the bullpen against Boston to work the final three frames of a 19-inning affair on Aug. 9 and did not allow a base runner while striking out four to pick up the win.
•Red Sox RH Rubby De La Rosa (4-4, 3.79 ERA, WHIP: 1.402) - De La Rosa suffered his first home loss of the season last time out, when he was knocked around for six runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings by the Houston Astros. The 25-year-old had allowed a total of two runs in 13 innings over his previous two turns. One of those came in Los Angeles, where De La Rosa held the Angels to one run while striking out eight in seven innings to earn a win on Aug. 10.
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