Ben Burns
Game: New Orleans at Troy State Dec 17 2009 8:00PM
Prediction: Troy State
Reason: I'm laying the points with TROY. The Trojans have been on the road for ages. They're back home now though and I expect them to be fully ready for tonight's game, which marks their Sun Belt opener. The Trojans have gotten ready for Sun Belt play with games against quality opponents like Florida, UAB, Houston, Marshall and Auburn, to name a few. Note that they beat Auburn outright on the road. Tonight's opponent represents a big step down in class. The Trojans are a very experienced team. They're led by the veteran backcourt trio of Brandon Hazzard, Michael Vogler and Richard Delk. All three players are averaging double-digits in scoring (44.8 ppg between them) and they're combining to average 10.3 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game. Center Coleman is also scoring in double-digits while contributing 7.3 boards. After losing nearly all their players the previous season, the Privateers do return three starters this year. That said, none of them averaged as many as seven points per game last season. Overall, they lost 70% of their scoring production from last season. While I already mentioned that the Trojans faced some very strong opposition, the same can't really be said of the Privateers. Give them some credit for beating Tulane and hanging within eight of Georgia, in their opener. (Also, they lost by 17 vs. NC State) However, the rest of their opponents have been very weak. They still haven't fared that well though. in their most recent game, playing at home and facing Florida Atlantic, they lost by 18. With the cover at Houston in their last game, the Trojans are now 4-0 ATS their last four lined games, after having played three straight on the road. That also brought them to 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 lined games played in December. The Trojans won and covered when these teams played last season. Laying -7, Troy won by a score of 83-72. This is a better Trojans team and I look for them to begin conference play with an even more convincing victory this evening. *9 Blowout GOW
Game: New Orleans at Troy State Dec 17 2009 8:00PM
Prediction: Troy State
Reason: I'm laying the points with TROY. The Trojans have been on the road for ages. They're back home now though and I expect them to be fully ready for tonight's game, which marks their Sun Belt opener. The Trojans have gotten ready for Sun Belt play with games against quality opponents like Florida, UAB, Houston, Marshall and Auburn, to name a few. Note that they beat Auburn outright on the road. Tonight's opponent represents a big step down in class. The Trojans are a very experienced team. They're led by the veteran backcourt trio of Brandon Hazzard, Michael Vogler and Richard Delk. All three players are averaging double-digits in scoring (44.8 ppg between them) and they're combining to average 10.3 rebounds and 9.9 assists per game. Center Coleman is also scoring in double-digits while contributing 7.3 boards. After losing nearly all their players the previous season, the Privateers do return three starters this year. That said, none of them averaged as many as seven points per game last season. Overall, they lost 70% of their scoring production from last season. While I already mentioned that the Trojans faced some very strong opposition, the same can't really be said of the Privateers. Give them some credit for beating Tulane and hanging within eight of Georgia, in their opener. (Also, they lost by 17 vs. NC State) However, the rest of their opponents have been very weak. They still haven't fared that well though. in their most recent game, playing at home and facing Florida Atlantic, they lost by 18. With the cover at Houston in their last game, the Trojans are now 4-0 ATS their last four lined games, after having played three straight on the road. That also brought them to 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 lined games played in December. The Trojans won and covered when these teams played last season. Laying -7, Troy won by a score of 83-72. This is a better Trojans team and I look for them to begin conference play with an even more convincing victory this evening. *9 Blowout GOW
Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
*200 New York Knicks +3 (NBA)
*200 Dallas Stars +108 (NHL)
*200 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Let me first say that if the Colts were not undefeated I would grade this play at least a *300.
Tonight we have the trends and public betting siding with one another. However, the line is reversing against both. Currently 75% of the public is wagering on the Colts and the line has dropped a full point. It appears that the "sharps" are betting on the Jags tonight.
What trends are the public betting with: The Jags have not won a game since 1995 in week 15 or greater vs a team on a 2 or more winning streak, they are 0-12 in this situation. The Colts are 6-0 ATS on Thursdays.
We have all heard about the Colts playing every man, going for 13-0 and an undefeated season. That may be true, but would you risk losing Peyton Manning and a chance to win a Super Bowl for a undefeated season? I think we will see 2nd string rookie qb Painter tonight. The Colts have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and appear to have no interest in pursuing a perfect regular season at all costs. Coach Jim Caldwell has indicated all his healthy players will play, but for how long remains to be seen.
Let's not forget about the last meeting between these two teams. Indianapolis made a defensive stand with under 2 minutes remaining to seal a hard-fought 14-12 victory in Week 1.
For the first time this season at home, the Jaguars will be playing in front of a capacity crowd. They have performed well at home despite the lack of support (they are 5-2 this year in Jacksonville), and the increased presence in the stands this week can only help.
Something else to point out for tonight. The Jags will be in 2nd place in the AFC South tonight with a win!
Take the Jags and all the points you can get for the cover!
*200 New York Knicks +3 (NBA)
*200 Dallas Stars +108 (NHL)
*200 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Let me first say that if the Colts were not undefeated I would grade this play at least a *300.
Tonight we have the trends and public betting siding with one another. However, the line is reversing against both. Currently 75% of the public is wagering on the Colts and the line has dropped a full point. It appears that the "sharps" are betting on the Jags tonight.
What trends are the public betting with: The Jags have not won a game since 1995 in week 15 or greater vs a team on a 2 or more winning streak, they are 0-12 in this situation. The Colts are 6-0 ATS on Thursdays.
We have all heard about the Colts playing every man, going for 13-0 and an undefeated season. That may be true, but would you risk losing Peyton Manning and a chance to win a Super Bowl for a undefeated season? I think we will see 2nd string rookie qb Painter tonight. The Colts have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and appear to have no interest in pursuing a perfect regular season at all costs. Coach Jim Caldwell has indicated all his healthy players will play, but for how long remains to be seen.
Let's not forget about the last meeting between these two teams. Indianapolis made a defensive stand with under 2 minutes remaining to seal a hard-fought 14-12 victory in Week 1.
For the first time this season at home, the Jaguars will be playing in front of a capacity crowd. They have performed well at home despite the lack of support (they are 5-2 this year in Jacksonville), and the increased presence in the stands this week can only help.
Something else to point out for tonight. The Jags will be in 2nd place in the AFC South tonight with a win!
Take the Jags and all the points you can get for the cover!
WIN OR LOSE
National Football League
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
301 INDY -3 -120 $9
National Hockey League
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
52 ATL ML -115 $12
57 NY Ranger ML -110 $29
60 PHIL +1.5 -310 $10
61 TB +1.5 -170 $18
64 ED ML +100 $21
66 CAL ML -165 $12
68 SJ ML -202 $15
National Basketball Association (Buying 2 Points ONLY when Posted)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
701 NY Knicks -3 -109 $19
703 Orl -4 -105 $16
705 Phox +2 -105 $7
NCAA Basketball ( buying 2 points on each game ONLY WHEN POSTED)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
707 Auburn +10.5 -105 $10
709 NO +13 +101 $19
719 Evansville -9 -110 $7
National Football League
Rot# Team Spread/Type Line Wager
301 INDY -3 -120 $9
National Hockey League
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
52 ATL ML -115 $12
57 NY Ranger ML -110 $29
60 PHIL +1.5 -310 $10
61 TB +1.5 -170 $18
64 ED ML +100 $21
66 CAL ML -165 $12
68 SJ ML -202 $15
National Basketball Association (Buying 2 Points ONLY when Posted)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
701 NY Knicks -3 -109 $19
703 Orl -4 -105 $16
705 Phox +2 -105 $7
NCAA Basketball ( buying 2 points on each game ONLY WHEN POSTED)
Rot# Team Spread Line Wager
707 Auburn +10.5 -105 $10
709 NO +13 +101 $19
719 Evansville -9 -110 $7
Similar to Football Jesus, there is a professional (retired) player who just nails NBA. Let's just call him The Governor for now since he would cut me off if I gave out his real name. He is 6-2 his last eight, 34-18 in NBA YTD. Finished 74-53 last season. I have been tracking all season and will be playing these.
Tonight:
Orlando -4
Knicks +3
Tonight:
Orlando -4
Knicks +3
WUNDERDOG
I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Phoenix at Columbus (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -130 (risk 4 to win 3.1)
The Phoenix Coyotes have been getting a great job from behind the net of late, and have limited opponents to just 19 goals, under two per contest over their last 10. The Blue Jackets have produced just 19 goals in their last eight games and an even worse five in their last three. The Coyotes are playing way under the total vs. an opponent who scored two or less in their last outing as they have turned in a 19-6-1 mark to the UNDER in that situation. They have also played UNDER to the tune of a 37-16-2 mark overall in their last 55 games. The Blue Jackets are on the short side of the total when posted as a home favorite, turning in a 15-7 mark in their last 22 to the UNDER. These teams make the script complete as they have played UNDER in the last four meetings. The UNDER gets the nod in this one.
Game: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Penguins have been on the better side of nine of their last 12 games and are playing very well. They are in a great spot in two different ways for this one as they are an amazing 10-1 in their last 11 as a road favorite, as well as 17-4 in their last 21 after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. The Flyers are below the .500 mark and are not playing well on the season and were destroyed in their last game by these same Penguins 6-1. The Flyers, with just 14 goals in their last nine games, and when you consider they scored six in one of them, they have tallied just eight in the other eight games. It’s hard to win against one of the NHL's premier teams scoring once per game, I'm going with the Penguins here.
Game: Dallas at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Dallas +110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 4.4)
The Atlanta Thrashers started out playing well at home, but have a losing record in their last seven played here. The problem has been behind the net as they have allowed three goals per game during the last seven games on home ice. The Thrashers have played to the level of their competition as they are 1-4 vs. teams with a road winning percentage of .400 or less, and 2-6 when facing an opponent that allowed five or more goals in their last game. The Stars are in the fourth game of the road trip and will be glad to land here. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. the Thrashers, including winning the last five times they have come in here. I'll go with Dallas in this one.
Game: Dallas at Atlanta (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Dallas +1.5 goals -270 (puckline) (risk 5 to win 1.9)
This is a tremendous opportunity on the puckline. Dallas has all but owned the Thrashers as they have taken 10 of the last 11 when these teams have squared off. In Atlanta, they have swept the Thrashers five straight times. Getting a goal and a half in this situation is value-laden even at this high price. I'll go with Dallas on the puckline.
Game: New York Rangers at New York Islanders (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Rangers -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -125 (risk 4 to win 3.2)
The Islanders had their run, but overall remain a poor team. They really have had a tough time finding the net as they have scored just 19 times in their last 10 games, under two per contest, and just 26 in their last 13. The Rangers are in a similar spot scoring just 11 in their last seven, and were beaten at home by the Islanders last night 2-1. I expect the Rangers to reverse that decision tonight as they are 13-6 in their last 19 as a road favorite, while the Islanders are a dreadful 4-17 when they play the second game of consecutive nights. I like this one to go UNDER, and I'll back the Rangers here to exact revenge.
Game: Nashville at Edmonton (9:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nashville -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Nashville was off to a horrible start that saw them drop six straight, and seven of eight, but have been on a tear since. They have come out on the right side of 17 of their last 24 games, including four of their last five played on the road. Edmonton is not a good team and their five-game streak without a loss came to an end last time out. I would them to be on the down cycle now, especially with Nashville coming in as the Oilers are a putrid 3-12 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. The Predators are 11-2 in their last 13 against Edmonton and that includes 5-1 in Edmonton. I'll go with Nashville here.
Game: Anaheim at San Jose (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Sharks have produced eight UNDERs in their last 12 games at home when the total is posted at 5.5 or more. Lately the offense has been down as they have managed just 10 goals in their past five games. The Ducks have now played nine of their last 12 on the road with a posted total of 5.5 or more to the UNDER. Site specific, these teams have now combined to produce 17 of 24 to the UNDER, or 71% of the time. The Ducks have upped the ante for the UNDER as they have played to a 12-3-1 mark in their last 16 after a win. The Sharks are 30-14-7 to the UNDER in their last 41 against the Pacific, and these teams are 17-4-5 to the UNDER in their last 26 meetings! I'll go with the UNDER
I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Phoenix at Columbus (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -130 (risk 4 to win 3.1)
The Phoenix Coyotes have been getting a great job from behind the net of late, and have limited opponents to just 19 goals, under two per contest over their last 10. The Blue Jackets have produced just 19 goals in their last eight games and an even worse five in their last three. The Coyotes are playing way under the total vs. an opponent who scored two or less in their last outing as they have turned in a 19-6-1 mark to the UNDER in that situation. They have also played UNDER to the tune of a 37-16-2 mark overall in their last 55 games. The Blue Jackets are on the short side of the total when posted as a home favorite, turning in a 15-7 mark in their last 22 to the UNDER. These teams make the script complete as they have played UNDER in the last four meetings. The UNDER gets the nod in this one.
Game: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Penguins have been on the better side of nine of their last 12 games and are playing very well. They are in a great spot in two different ways for this one as they are an amazing 10-1 in their last 11 as a road favorite, as well as 17-4 in their last 21 after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. The Flyers are below the .500 mark and are not playing well on the season and were destroyed in their last game by these same Penguins 6-1. The Flyers, with just 14 goals in their last nine games, and when you consider they scored six in one of them, they have tallied just eight in the other eight games. It’s hard to win against one of the NHL's premier teams scoring once per game, I'm going with the Penguins here.
Game: Dallas at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Dallas +110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 4.4)
The Atlanta Thrashers started out playing well at home, but have a losing record in their last seven played here. The problem has been behind the net as they have allowed three goals per game during the last seven games on home ice. The Thrashers have played to the level of their competition as they are 1-4 vs. teams with a road winning percentage of .400 or less, and 2-6 when facing an opponent that allowed five or more goals in their last game. The Stars are in the fourth game of the road trip and will be glad to land here. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. the Thrashers, including winning the last five times they have come in here. I'll go with Dallas in this one.
Game: Dallas at Atlanta (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Dallas +1.5 goals -270 (puckline) (risk 5 to win 1.9)
This is a tremendous opportunity on the puckline. Dallas has all but owned the Thrashers as they have taken 10 of the last 11 when these teams have squared off. In Atlanta, they have swept the Thrashers five straight times. Getting a goal and a half in this situation is value-laden even at this high price. I'll go with Dallas on the puckline.
Game: New York Rangers at New York Islanders (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Rangers -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -125 (risk 4 to win 3.2)
The Islanders had their run, but overall remain a poor team. They really have had a tough time finding the net as they have scored just 19 times in their last 10 games, under two per contest, and just 26 in their last 13. The Rangers are in a similar spot scoring just 11 in their last seven, and were beaten at home by the Islanders last night 2-1. I expect the Rangers to reverse that decision tonight as they are 13-6 in their last 19 as a road favorite, while the Islanders are a dreadful 4-17 when they play the second game of consecutive nights. I like this one to go UNDER, and I'll back the Rangers here to exact revenge.
Game: Nashville at Edmonton (9:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nashville -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Nashville was off to a horrible start that saw them drop six straight, and seven of eight, but have been on a tear since. They have come out on the right side of 17 of their last 24 games, including four of their last five played on the road. Edmonton is not a good team and their five-game streak without a loss came to an end last time out. I would them to be on the down cycle now, especially with Nashville coming in as the Oilers are a putrid 3-12 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. The Predators are 11-2 in their last 13 against Edmonton and that includes 5-1 in Edmonton. I'll go with Nashville here.
Game: Anaheim at San Jose (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Sharks have produced eight UNDERs in their last 12 games at home when the total is posted at 5.5 or more. Lately the offense has been down as they have managed just 10 goals in their past five games. The Ducks have now played nine of their last 12 on the road with a posted total of 5.5 or more to the UNDER. Site specific, these teams have now combined to produce 17 of 24 to the UNDER, or 71% of the time. The Ducks have upped the ante for the UNDER as they have played to a 12-3-1 mark in their last 16 after a win. The Sharks are 30-14-7 to the UNDER in their last 41 against the Pacific, and these teams are 17-4-5 to the UNDER in their last 26 meetings! I'll go with the UNDER
Dr. Bob
Thursday College Opinion
Weber State (+13) over UNLV
Rotation #719 - 7 pm Pacific
UNLV's win over Arizona and Louisville aren't actually that impressive given how mediocre the Wildcats and Cardinals are, but those two wins over marquee teams appear to be contributing to UNLV being overrated. The Rebels are a good defensive team, but they have problems shooting the ball (27% on 3-pointers) and my ratings favor UNLV by just 9 points in this game based on this year's games. I certainly don't mind backing a Weber State team that is 56-30 ATS under coach Randy Rahe.
Thursday College Opinion
Weber State (+13) over UNLV
Rotation #719 - 7 pm Pacific
UNLV's win over Arizona and Louisville aren't actually that impressive given how mediocre the Wildcats and Cardinals are, but those two wins over marquee teams appear to be contributing to UNLV being overrated. The Rebels are a good defensive team, but they have problems shooting the ball (27% on 3-pointers) and my ratings favor UNLV by just 9 points in this game based on this year's games. I certainly don't mind backing a Weber State team that is 56-30 ATS under coach Randy Rahe.
