Service Plays Thursday 12/17/09

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MAXIMUS REPORT

NCAA BB 12/17/09
Don’t see any games that meet the criteria for Best Bets
SOLIDS:------------------------------------Projection
Evansville -10.5 vs. Georgia Southern____________Evansville 70-51

OVER/UNDER:
Under 139.5 Denver/Florida International__________132
Other Projections: Not recommended plays – just how we see the games.
AWAY ---------------------------Home Spread ---------------------------HOME
Auburn 61 _______________ -9.5 _____________________Florida St. 69
New Orleans 57 ___________ -11.5 ______________________ Troy 79
Florida International 58 _____ -16.5 ______________________ Denver 74
UC Davis 59 ______________ -15 ______________________ Fresno St. 73
Elon 51 __________________ -20 _______________________ NC State 72
Weber St. 74 ______________ -13_______________________ UNLV 79
Eastern Washington 65 ______ -17 _______________________ Nevada 81
 
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Beat the Books


Here is the Thursday play...

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (3, 43)
Colts will not roll over. Their starters will play and will not see the bench unless it's a blow out going into the 4th quarter. The majority of people are panicking, thinking that Indy won't want to win and that Jacksonville will dominate. These athletes don't get paid millions of dollars to take game days off, especially when there's a chance to get into the record books. Here's a quote from coach Jim Caldwell. "We're going to approach the 14th game exactly like we did one through 13. We're going to prepare just like we did for the first 13 and we're going to play just like we did the first 13," Caldwell said. "The only thing that would deter anyone from playing is a health issue."

That last sentence is deceiving. I noticed this morning, thanks to a CBS Sportsline expert and a very insightful subscriber (Scott H, shout out), that Caldwell has drastically expanded his injury list to give him room to maneuver important players if he feels the need. This is a slight scare but you'd be foolish to think that the Colts aren't thinking about a perfect season, no matter how many times you hear that it isn't a priority. They are a great team and will not just lay down because they've clinched home field advantage.

Peyton and Co. will have a chance to eat up this Jaguars pass defense that ranks 26th in the NFL. Making this an even easier decision is the fact that Jacksonville might be without their two players who are leading the team in sacks and interceptions (Mathis and Henderson). Even with a healthy defense the Jags don't really stand a chance. Here's why:
-Jacksonville has the fewest sacks in the league with 14.
-Peyton Manning has only been sacked 10 times all year.
-Protecting Manning will be priority number 1, the O-line won't allow anyone close enough to smell Manning's crisp and clean jersey.
-The Colts third string QB, who has never seen an NFL snap, is the only healthy alternative to Manning tonight.

This game really is simple and didn't need three pages of explanation. As long as the Colts are undefeated, average almost ten more points per game and are up against a team with a weakness like this, I will have action on them. They will take their shot at NFL history. Even though the Jags are desperate and need to win out to make the playoffs, don't expect Jacksonville to be the team that puts the Colts at 13-1. Their reliance on Maurice Jones-Drew will not lead them to victory tonight.
Pick: Indianapolis -3
 

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anybody know wtf happened w/ aub-fsu total?? started at 130 shot up to 136 then at the last minute plummeted to 133 then shot back up to 135.5 and settled at 135... its like helmut and RAS had a war on this total or something
 

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This is not a service play but some valuable very valuable info the line opened at colts -6 and 72% are on them vs the spread and now its down to -3 this is crazy reverse line movement it really looks like vegas is trying to trap indy and thinks the jags will win
 

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anybody know wtf happened w/ aub-fsu total?? started at 130 shot up to 136 then at the last minute plummeted to 133 then shot back up to 135.5 and settled at 135... its like helmut and RAS had a war on this total or something



Wagner's Trophy Club (Steve yerks) is on the over....
 

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patron 3-0 lifetime on 100,000 unit...but has been as hot as last year on rest of picks
 

sdf

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This is not a service play but some valuable very valuable info the line opened at colts -6 and 72% are on them vs the spread and now its down to -3 this is crazy reverse line movement it really looks like vegas is trying to trap indy and thinks the jags will win

it moved to 3 in about 3 minutes. the public didnt bet it down to 3 that fast.
 

ugk

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DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #2 Take Jacksonville +3 over Indianapolis
 
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The Duke's Sports

Indianapolis Over (43) for 2 Units

Both teams are operating on a short weak of prep and still recovering from physical battles last Sunday. The brunt of the physical wear and tear is on defense for both teams; for example, the Colts are severely banged up defensively,including bookends Freeney and Mathis consequently, we'll look for the jaguars to run the ball effectively with MJD and work play action successfully against a hobbling Indy secondary that's already thin in depth. On the other hand, the Jaguars are struggling to produce sacks (just 14 all year) and that should add to more passing TDs given up (20 thus far). We'll look for Manning to play pitch and catch with his plethora of targets. The Colts have hung at least 31 ppg on opponents during their last four Thursday night games. This series has gone 6-2 O/U in Jacksonville and we'll grab the "over" here.
 

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