Dwayne Bryant
ORLANDO MAGIC -4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Big revenge spot for the Magic, as Miami went into Orlando as a 9-point dog on 11/25 and came away with an upset win, 99-98. The Heat were +8 in rebounds and +7 in turnovers, and Orlando shot just 60.6% from the free-throw line (13 missed free throws). Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points. What makes that game sting even more is the fact that Orlando was embarrassed on national TV.
Miami is coming off a huge 20-point home win over Toronto, which snapped their four-game home losing streak. We had Miami in that easy win, but we also had Orlando when they lost to the Heat in that first meeting of the season. Miami had a long team meeting (about their home court woes) leading up to that Toronto game. They obviously responded. But will the same intensity be there tonight? And will Miami be able to match the intensity that revenge-minded Orlando is sure to bring? I don't think so. We know Orlando is the more talented team, but this could get ugly with them also being the more motivated team.
I say Miami's win in Orlando was the exception, not the rule. Orlando will not be outrebounded again. The Magic are 5th in the NBA in rebound margin, while Miami comes in at 19th. That edge on the glass will be a huge factor tonight. Orlando is not a great free-throw shooting team (70.7%), but I expect them to do better than 60.6% this time around.
Even with the loss in the last meeting, Orlando is still 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Payback time for Orlando. Having the better team playing with same-season revenge is a winning combo. And being able to exact that revenge on national TV (TNT) only adds to Orlando's motivation. Lay it with Orlando.[/FONT]
ORLANDO MAGIC -4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Big revenge spot for the Magic, as Miami went into Orlando as a 9-point dog on 11/25 and came away with an upset win, 99-98. The Heat were +8 in rebounds and +7 in turnovers, and Orlando shot just 60.6% from the free-throw line (13 missed free throws). Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points. What makes that game sting even more is the fact that Orlando was embarrassed on national TV.
Miami is coming off a huge 20-point home win over Toronto, which snapped their four-game home losing streak. We had Miami in that easy win, but we also had Orlando when they lost to the Heat in that first meeting of the season. Miami had a long team meeting (about their home court woes) leading up to that Toronto game. They obviously responded. But will the same intensity be there tonight? And will Miami be able to match the intensity that revenge-minded Orlando is sure to bring? I don't think so. We know Orlando is the more talented team, but this could get ugly with them also being the more motivated team.
I say Miami's win in Orlando was the exception, not the rule. Orlando will not be outrebounded again. The Magic are 5th in the NBA in rebound margin, while Miami comes in at 19th. That edge on the glass will be a huge factor tonight. Orlando is not a great free-throw shooting team (70.7%), but I expect them to do better than 60.6% this time around.
Even with the loss in the last meeting, Orlando is still 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Payback time for Orlando. Having the better team playing with same-season revenge is a winning combo. And being able to exact that revenge on national TV (TNT) only adds to Orlando's motivation. Lay it with Orlando.[/FONT]
Bob Balfe
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Jaguars are down to their final lifeline. They will need to win out the have a shot at the playoffs. Their first test is the best NFL team in the league and the team with the best winning streak in NFL history. Taking the Jaguars seems not logical and one would ask why go against that streak? To me a game is a game and what happened yesterday or last year means nothing. It is hard to win an NFL Game. Just ask the Detroit Lions. Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell said only healthy players would play. With that comment I do not think you will see Mathis or Freeney on defense tonight or if you do it will be a limited role. Clearly the Colts would love to finish 16-0, but all they really care about is a Super Bowl Ring. I like the Jags in this spot even if the Colts were healthy. The Jaguars have a huge defense that should slow down the Colts already bad running game. On offense the Jags are equally as big and will be going against a banged up defense. Jacksonville has played Indy well over the past few games and the Colts have not been super on the road. I have seen their flaws and great comebacks due to the great play of Payton Manning, but I have also seen the bad closing of teams they played and of course they got by with a little bit of luck. The Jaguars will be playing in front of a sellout crowd tonight. Look for the Colts streak to end or late magic by Manning will have them win at the end of the game. Could this possibly be a Colts win and Jags cover? The public is all over the Colts tonight. Take Jacksonville.[/FONT]
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Jaguars are down to their final lifeline. They will need to win out the have a shot at the playoffs. Their first test is the best NFL team in the league and the team with the best winning streak in NFL history. Taking the Jaguars seems not logical and one would ask why go against that streak? To me a game is a game and what happened yesterday or last year means nothing. It is hard to win an NFL Game. Just ask the Detroit Lions. Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell said only healthy players would play. With that comment I do not think you will see Mathis or Freeney on defense tonight or if you do it will be a limited role. Clearly the Colts would love to finish 16-0, but all they really care about is a Super Bowl Ring. I like the Jags in this spot even if the Colts were healthy. The Jaguars have a huge defense that should slow down the Colts already bad running game. On offense the Jags are equally as big and will be going against a banged up defense. Jacksonville has played Indy well over the past few games and the Colts have not been super on the road. I have seen their flaws and great comebacks due to the great play of Payton Manning, but I have also seen the bad closing of teams they played and of course they got by with a little bit of luck. The Jaguars will be playing in front of a sellout crowd tonight. Look for the Colts streak to end or late magic by Manning will have them win at the end of the game. Could this possibly be a Colts win and Jags cover? The public is all over the Colts tonight. Take Jacksonville.[/FONT]
Andre Gomes
ORLANDO MAGIC -4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We have a situational spot in this game as the Orlando Magic certainly won’t take this game lightly because they have a bad taste on their mouths after losing at home in the final second against this Heat team.
After that loss, the Magic are 8-2 and last night they had an easy game against the Raptors. The Magic easily spanked the Raptors 118-99 in which they shot 57.3% from the field and 14-30 behind the arc so we can say that the Magic are pretty confident coming for this game. Because it was an early rout, Stan Van Gundy could rest their starters for this game and Dwight Howard was the most utilized player with “only” 34 minutes.
Meanwhile the Magic finally broke their slump by spanking the Raptors at home 115-95. Note that they were 1-4 L5 games prior to that game and they already showed some problems this season to compete against top caliber teams. Against the Raptors they shot 51.7% from the field, they outrebounded the Raptors 45-32 with 12-4 in offensive boards and scored 52 points in the paint. However we must not forget that the Heat faced a “soft” opponent in Toronto and tonight we can be sure that the Magic won’t be soft against them. The Magic are the third best team in the league protecting the paint and the best team in % defensive rebounding.
In “that” game between these two teams, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis had sub par performances by combining to shot 6-20 from the field, for tonight look for them to have big performances and the Magic to roll past Miami completing their revenge in front of a national audience. Take the Magic in here.
Pick: 3 Units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Orlando Magic (-4)[/FONT]
ORLANDO MAGIC -4
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We have a situational spot in this game as the Orlando Magic certainly won’t take this game lightly because they have a bad taste on their mouths after losing at home in the final second against this Heat team.
After that loss, the Magic are 8-2 and last night they had an easy game against the Raptors. The Magic easily spanked the Raptors 118-99 in which they shot 57.3% from the field and 14-30 behind the arc so we can say that the Magic are pretty confident coming for this game. Because it was an early rout, Stan Van Gundy could rest their starters for this game and Dwight Howard was the most utilized player with “only” 34 minutes.
Meanwhile the Magic finally broke their slump by spanking the Raptors at home 115-95. Note that they were 1-4 L5 games prior to that game and they already showed some problems this season to compete against top caliber teams. Against the Raptors they shot 51.7% from the field, they outrebounded the Raptors 45-32 with 12-4 in offensive boards and scored 52 points in the paint. However we must not forget that the Heat faced a “soft” opponent in Toronto and tonight we can be sure that the Magic won’t be soft against them. The Magic are the third best team in the league protecting the paint and the best team in % defensive rebounding.
In “that” game between these two teams, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis had sub par performances by combining to shot 6-20 from the field, for tonight look for them to have big performances and the Magic to roll past Miami completing their revenge in front of a national audience. Take the Magic in here.
Pick: 3 Units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Orlando Magic (-4)[/FONT]
Spartan
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It does not happen often enough but every once in a blue moon Vegas will give you an opportunity to make a nice score and most people just will not take advantage of it. Well here it is and I am fully prepared to go with the opportunity. The public and the squares will just love getting Peyton Manning and the undefeated Colts here with such a low number. Easy pickings right? Wrong!! I've seen this movie before guys and know how it ends so this is not really fair. I think the Colts here might be the biggest sucker bet of the season. The Colts sport a perfect record, have the games best quarterback and the Jag's just lost at home to the Dolphins and Chad Henne. No way the Jags get this done, well guys, those fellas have a giant hook protruding from their lip and they are getting reeled in like a trophy Marlin. I am going Double Star Release on the home dog Jaguars plus the 3!![/FONT]
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It does not happen often enough but every once in a blue moon Vegas will give you an opportunity to make a nice score and most people just will not take advantage of it. Well here it is and I am fully prepared to go with the opportunity. The public and the squares will just love getting Peyton Manning and the undefeated Colts here with such a low number. Easy pickings right? Wrong!! I've seen this movie before guys and know how it ends so this is not really fair. I think the Colts here might be the biggest sucker bet of the season. The Colts sport a perfect record, have the games best quarterback and the Jag's just lost at home to the Dolphins and Chad Henne. No way the Jags get this done, well guys, those fellas have a giant hook protruding from their lip and they are getting reeled in like a trophy Marlin. I am going Double Star Release on the home dog Jaguars plus the 3!![/FONT]
-runner | NFL Side Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:20 PM <SUP>† </SUP>
<DT> triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND <DD>Analysis: *** NFL 3* BEST BET OF THE DAY ***
BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the� 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR
</DD>
<DT> triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND <DD>Analysis: *** NFL 3* BEST BET OF THE DAY ***
BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the� 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR
</DD>
Lenny Del Genio
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. Back in Week 1, they were a failed 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime and ending Indianapolis' dream for an unbeaten season almost before it even started. It was the third time in four meetings that a game in this series was decided by three points or less. No matter what HC Jim Caldwell says, the Colts really have NOTHING to play for. They have already clinched the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is in MUST win territory. They have won five of their last six at Alltel Stadium where they may have a bad spread record, but that's because they have failed to cash ten straight times here when favored. Tonight, they are an underdog. This is the first time all season that a home game will not be blacked out in Jacksonville. Weather will work to the Jaguars advantage as the forecast calls for strong winds and rain and remember that the Colts are a dome team playing outdoors. Jacksonville is our 20* AFC South Game of the Month. [/FONT]
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. Back in Week 1, they were a failed 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime and ending Indianapolis' dream for an unbeaten season almost before it even started. It was the third time in four meetings that a game in this series was decided by three points or less. No matter what HC Jim Caldwell says, the Colts really have NOTHING to play for. They have already clinched the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is in MUST win territory. They have won five of their last six at Alltel Stadium where they may have a bad spread record, but that's because they have failed to cash ten straight times here when favored. Tonight, they are an underdog. This is the first time all season that a home game will not be blacked out in Jacksonville. Weather will work to the Jaguars advantage as the forecast calls for strong winds and rain and remember that the Colts are a dome team playing outdoors. Jacksonville is our 20* AFC South Game of the Month. [/FONT]
vegas-runner | NBA Total Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM †
double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:
** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the late TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR
double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:
** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the late TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR
©2009 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.
vegas-runner | NFL Side Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:20 PM *†
triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* BEST BE•T OF THE DAY ***
BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR
©2009 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.
vegas-runner | NBA Total Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM *†
double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:
** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the la•te TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR
vegas-runner | NFL Side Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:20 PM *†
triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* BEST BE•T OF THE DAY ***
BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR
©2009 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.
vegas-runner | NBA Total Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM *†
double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:
** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the la•te TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR
CHRIS JORDAN
Thursday winners ...
300♦ COLTS - What's that you say? You thought there were some injury issues with this defense.
How about linebacker Gary Brackett?
Indy's athletic enforcer has teamed with Clint Session to form one of the deadliest duos this team has seen in quite some time. They looked tremendous against the Broncos last Sunday and I believe they'll be all over David Garrard. Granted, Garrard has the wheels to be dangerous, unlike Denver's Kyle Orton, but Brackett has the knack of using his instincts and intelligence to sniff out play-action and misdirection by opposing offensive units.
I'm counting on him to be the key to this defensive push today, as Garrard has to be pressured the entire game.
Shouldn't be that hard, as the defense has been doing for most of the season.
The undefeated Colts come into this game tied for second in the league at 16.7 points allowed, some of the smallest points allowed in a dozen or so years. The last time the defense was this stingy the Colts allowed 16.4 points per game in 2007.
So with that, my question is if the Colts are being stingy on defense and are busy shutting down the Jags, how in the world will the home team be able to keep up with one of the most prolific offenses in the league?
This is a no-brainer.
MAKE NOTE - the line is currently -3. Lay the field goal only, and if the line goes to -3-1/2, then buy the hook down. Quite honestly, it's advisable to buy the 1/2 point down to -2-1/2 off the 3 as well, in the event of garbage-time scoring in the fourth quarter, resulting in a three-point win.
Thursday winners ...
300♦ COLTS - What's that you say? You thought there were some injury issues with this defense.
How about linebacker Gary Brackett?
Indy's athletic enforcer has teamed with Clint Session to form one of the deadliest duos this team has seen in quite some time. They looked tremendous against the Broncos last Sunday and I believe they'll be all over David Garrard. Granted, Garrard has the wheels to be dangerous, unlike Denver's Kyle Orton, but Brackett has the knack of using his instincts and intelligence to sniff out play-action and misdirection by opposing offensive units.
I'm counting on him to be the key to this defensive push today, as Garrard has to be pressured the entire game.
Shouldn't be that hard, as the defense has been doing for most of the season.
The undefeated Colts come into this game tied for second in the league at 16.7 points allowed, some of the smallest points allowed in a dozen or so years. The last time the defense was this stingy the Colts allowed 16.4 points per game in 2007.
So with that, my question is if the Colts are being stingy on defense and are busy shutting down the Jags, how in the world will the home team be able to keep up with one of the most prolific offenses in the league?
This is a no-brainer.
MAKE NOTE - the line is currently -3. Lay the field goal only, and if the line goes to -3-1/2, then buy the hook down. Quite honestly, it's advisable to buy the 1/2 point down to -2-1/2 off the 3 as well, in the event of garbage-time scoring in the fourth quarter, resulting in a three-point win.
