CTO 11*
*TROY over New Orleans...Sun Belt scouts report well-organized Troy (4 starters back) should continue to be a money-maker in conference
action after posting 9-2 spread mark in final 11 reg.-season tilts LY, including 83-72 home win vs. N.O. Trojans now possess a legit post
threat in Alabama transfer 6-9 F Coleman (10 ppg, 7 rpg). Hence, offensively-limited Privateers (only 2 starters avg. DDs) unable (once
again) to keep pace with Troy’s high-octane attack, led by sharp-shooting, all-league G Hazzard, who poured in 26 LY (4 hoops from arc).
First home game in a month for Maestri’s well-traveled crew.
*TROY 88 - New Orleans 64 RATING - 11
*TROY over New Orleans...Sun Belt scouts report well-organized Troy (4 starters back) should continue to be a money-maker in conference
action after posting 9-2 spread mark in final 11 reg.-season tilts LY, including 83-72 home win vs. N.O. Trojans now possess a legit post
threat in Alabama transfer 6-9 F Coleman (10 ppg, 7 rpg). Hence, offensively-limited Privateers (only 2 starters avg. DDs) unable (once
again) to keep pace with Troy’s high-octane attack, led by sharp-shooting, all-league G Hazzard, who poured in 26 LY (4 hoops from arc).
First home game in a month for Maestri’s well-traveled crew.
*TROY 88 - New Orleans 64 RATING - 11
Scott Delaney
Thursday ...
100-Dime INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ... Don't buy into Indy coach Jim Caldwell's coy ways. He's not fooling anyone, in saying this will be like Game 3 of the preseason. He's not fooling anyone when saying he's not sure how long his starters will play. Plain and simple - he's not fooling anyone.
For this game, tonight, it's full speed ahead with the pedal to the metal! At some point this week, more times than not, I've heard or read into quotes by Caldwell that tell me how clear it is he plans on treating tonight's game like Weeks 1 through 14 - and not the preseason.
I'm not too worried about Jacksonville's traditionally rugged defense, not when its pass D is ranked 26th. Not when Peyton Manning is my quarterback and not when Reggie Wayne has tallied at least 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games against the Jaguars.
There's the steadily improving rushing game, which will tie up Jacksonville's defensive line for a while, not to mention make it extremely tired. You can expect Jags running back Mike Hart to continue turning heads with his power running, giving Joseph Addai breathers here and there. He's become a key component to help provide the Colts with a productive running game, and when you see a back showing signs of life like that, you know he is going to get more work. That means both sets of legs will remain fresh, and the Colts can opt to the running game when necessary.
And when Manning does decide to go up top, you're going to hear the name Pierre Garcon called upon more often. Wayne will get his, but teams are frustrating him with double-coverage, and that means Manning needs to look for a deep-ball threat. Enter Garcon. I expect him to go deep tonight, and haul in a few big passes.
Look, Indianapolis might not have anything to play for, in terms of seeding and homefield, but there's still some sense of pride out there. There's still the matter of competing against the Saints for being the only undefeated team in the league.
Caldwell or Manning might not say it. Sean Payton or Drew Brees might not say it, but you better believe there's underlying theme for both of these teams. That is 'not' to be the first team to lose this season. And since New Orleans doesn't play until Saturday, I'm thinking we're going to see the Colts send a message to the Saints ... don't think that little mental game doesn't go on. Anyone who disagrees with that theory doesn't understand competition and probably never played sports.
Lay the road chalk, which happens to be a field goal right now, with a rising moneyline attached to it. If in fact the game goes to 3-1/2, then, yes, you'll want to buy that half point down. I don't believe the oddsmakers would make a bold move and open themselves up to be sided in this game, but in the event they do, buy the half point down.
Paid by me!
Thursday ...
100-Dime INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ... Don't buy into Indy coach Jim Caldwell's coy ways. He's not fooling anyone, in saying this will be like Game 3 of the preseason. He's not fooling anyone when saying he's not sure how long his starters will play. Plain and simple - he's not fooling anyone.
For this game, tonight, it's full speed ahead with the pedal to the metal! At some point this week, more times than not, I've heard or read into quotes by Caldwell that tell me how clear it is he plans on treating tonight's game like Weeks 1 through 14 - and not the preseason.
I'm not too worried about Jacksonville's traditionally rugged defense, not when its pass D is ranked 26th. Not when Peyton Manning is my quarterback and not when Reggie Wayne has tallied at least 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games against the Jaguars.
There's the steadily improving rushing game, which will tie up Jacksonville's defensive line for a while, not to mention make it extremely tired. You can expect Jags running back Mike Hart to continue turning heads with his power running, giving Joseph Addai breathers here and there. He's become a key component to help provide the Colts with a productive running game, and when you see a back showing signs of life like that, you know he is going to get more work. That means both sets of legs will remain fresh, and the Colts can opt to the running game when necessary.
And when Manning does decide to go up top, you're going to hear the name Pierre Garcon called upon more often. Wayne will get his, but teams are frustrating him with double-coverage, and that means Manning needs to look for a deep-ball threat. Enter Garcon. I expect him to go deep tonight, and haul in a few big passes.
Look, Indianapolis might not have anything to play for, in terms of seeding and homefield, but there's still some sense of pride out there. There's still the matter of competing against the Saints for being the only undefeated team in the league.
Caldwell or Manning might not say it. Sean Payton or Drew Brees might not say it, but you better believe there's underlying theme for both of these teams. That is 'not' to be the first team to lose this season. And since New Orleans doesn't play until Saturday, I'm thinking we're going to see the Colts send a message to the Saints ... don't think that little mental game doesn't go on. Anyone who disagrees with that theory doesn't understand competition and probably never played sports.
Lay the road chalk, which happens to be a field goal right now, with a rising moneyline attached to it. If in fact the game goes to 3-1/2, then, yes, you'll want to buy that half point down. I don't believe the oddsmakers would make a bold move and open themselves up to be sided in this game, but in the event they do, buy the half point down.
Paid by me!
RANDALL THE HANDLE
Colts @ Jaguars
While there is much speculation on whether the Colts will play starters for the majority of their remaining games, we are still comfortable endorsing Indianapolis in this one. Jacksonville has not be particularly good against the pass and even if Peyton Manning is sat down in second half, it will be done with a lead. Colts dominated stats in first meeting but just edged out a 14-12 win. A Manning interception in Jacksonville's end zone and RB Joseph Addai fumbling deep in Jags territory prevented a much larger disparity on the scoreboard. Jacksonville has just three home covers in past 15 as host.TAKING: Indianapolis –3
Colts @ Jaguars
While there is much speculation on whether the Colts will play starters for the majority of their remaining games, we are still comfortable endorsing Indianapolis in this one. Jacksonville has not be particularly good against the pass and even if Peyton Manning is sat down in second half, it will be done with a lead. Colts dominated stats in first meeting but just edged out a 14-12 win. A Manning interception in Jacksonville's end zone and RB Joseph Addai fumbling deep in Jags territory prevented a much larger disparity on the scoreboard. Jacksonville has just three home covers in past 15 as host.TAKING: Indianapolis –3
NOTICE THE OPPOSITE SIDES AGAIN
SPORTS WAGERS
JACKSONVILLE +3 +1.10 over Indianapolis
The Colts insist they’re going to treat this one like it was as meaningful as the rest but if you believe that football is 80% mental than you’ll have to ignore that. Perhaps they were told to treat it like the rest but the fact is, the game means absolutely jack for the Colts. They secured home-field throughout the playoffs with last week’s win and in their minds, whether they admit it or not, they have to be thinking about staying healthy and in their minds, they know the game does not mean a thing. The intensity level of a team that is playing in a game that has playoff implications is extremely high and that’s the case with the Jags. They’re now 7-6 and they’re right in the thick of things, thus, this game will go along way in deciding its fate. So, yeah, statistically, the Colts should eat up the Jags and spit them out but I couldn’t give a rat’s ass about stats. Find me the team that is mentally ready and that’s where I want to put my money. Throw in the fact the Colts are traveling on a short week, with very little preparation time and that makes them even more vulnerable, both mentally and physically. Jags outright but since there’s a take-back on the +3, I’ll take the points. Play: Jacksonville +3
SPORTS WAGERS
JACKSONVILLE +3 +1.10 over Indianapolis
The Colts insist they’re going to treat this one like it was as meaningful as the rest but if you believe that football is 80% mental than you’ll have to ignore that. Perhaps they were told to treat it like the rest but the fact is, the game means absolutely jack for the Colts. They secured home-field throughout the playoffs with last week’s win and in their minds, whether they admit it or not, they have to be thinking about staying healthy and in their minds, they know the game does not mean a thing. The intensity level of a team that is playing in a game that has playoff implications is extremely high and that’s the case with the Jags. They’re now 7-6 and they’re right in the thick of things, thus, this game will go along way in deciding its fate. So, yeah, statistically, the Colts should eat up the Jags and spit them out but I couldn’t give a rat’s ass about stats. Find me the team that is mentally ready and that’s where I want to put my money. Throw in the fact the Colts are traveling on a short week, with very little preparation time and that makes them even more vulnerable, both mentally and physically. Jags outright but since there’s a take-back on the +3, I’ll take the points. Play: Jacksonville +3
Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM ‹
double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 705 PHO
Analysis: Stan is Betting PO½RTLAND. Stan notes that Portland finished a 4 game East Coast road trip on the 12th and returned home to play a 2 game home stand on the 15th before ending back out on the road for another 4 game road trip. Having won and pushed on Tuesday against Sacramento Stan expects a better effort tonight in Portland's second game back at home. Portland will want to secure a win here as their next 4 games are all tough ones on the road. They go to Orlando, Miami, Dallas & San Antonio. Portland wins by 8-10 points here. TAKE PORTLAND as STAN'S TNT WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Paid by me!
double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 705 PHO
Analysis: Stan is Betting PO½RTLAND. Stan notes that Portland finished a 4 game East Coast road trip on the 12th and returned home to play a 2 game home stand on the 15th before ending back out on the road for another 4 game road trip. Having won and pushed on Tuesday against Sacramento Stan expects a better effort tonight in Portland's second game back at home. Portland will want to secure a win here as their next 4 games are all tough ones on the road. They go to Orlando, Miami, Dallas & San Antonio. Portland wins by 8-10 points here. TAKE PORTLAND as STAN'S TNT WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Paid by me!
vegas runner
triple-dime bet 319 CLE / 320 KAN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
These are the kind of "Steam" Bets that I've always loved betting the most...even back when I was just a runner, because they were the ones that were concealed so well...And you really had to have some solid sources to uncover...
And that's the case again with this bet...because the line move looks so insignificant...But I can tell you that nothing could be further from the truth...
This line first went up at 36.5, and within 5 minutes...the books were willing to ta~ke it up to the "Key Number" of 37...
But what we saw as a few days past...was that the books, in anticipation of the public really liking the Under...went ahead and dropped it back to 36.5...And this time, the Wiseguys decided to work the market some...by leaving it alone...
This gave the books plenty of confidence that they would now only have to deal with the Betting Public...So in an effort to give them the "worst of it"...we saw a handful drop their lines even lower...And that's when the Wiseguys decided, it was once again time to Unload...
And with so many more "Outs" offering lines for this weekend's games...the Outfits really went to work and bet the OVER everywhere they could...
In fact, they bet it enough...that even with so much Under money expected by the public come game-day...the books were still willing to take it back to that "Key Total" of 37...Higher than their opener...
Again, these are the "moves" that very few pick up on, without having a solid source...
Fortunately for us, we have plenty of sources who are actually behind a lot of these moves...Which is why we can be sure that the Outfits love the Over...
Finally, I made sure to check the forcast...because we all know that the mention of snow will force a huge adjustment downwards...But it appears that won't be a problem on Sunday...
Don't fear seeing this line drop some on game-day, because we all know that public money outweighs wiseguy money, especially in the NFL...And since it appears that the Outfits got down as much as they wanted on this Under...the books may feel confident enough that they won't look to take another position...and therefore lower the Total, in an attempt to give the public the worst of it...
But rest assured, you and I both...are on the same side that the Betting Syndicates will be rooting for come Sunday...And with enough public money on the Under...we just may have the Books rooting in that Over for us as well...VR
©2009 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.
triple-dime bet 319 CLE / 320 KAN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** NFL 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***
These are the kind of "Steam" Bets that I've always loved betting the most...even back when I was just a runner, because they were the ones that were concealed so well...And you really had to have some solid sources to uncover...
And that's the case again with this bet...because the line move looks so insignificant...But I can tell you that nothing could be further from the truth...
This line first went up at 36.5, and within 5 minutes...the books were willing to ta~ke it up to the "Key Number" of 37...
But what we saw as a few days past...was that the books, in anticipation of the public really liking the Under...went ahead and dropped it back to 36.5...And this time, the Wiseguys decided to work the market some...by leaving it alone...
This gave the books plenty of confidence that they would now only have to deal with the Betting Public...So in an effort to give them the "worst of it"...we saw a handful drop their lines even lower...And that's when the Wiseguys decided, it was once again time to Unload...
And with so many more "Outs" offering lines for this weekend's games...the Outfits really went to work and bet the OVER everywhere they could...
In fact, they bet it enough...that even with so much Under money expected by the public come game-day...the books were still willing to take it back to that "Key Total" of 37...Higher than their opener...
Again, these are the "moves" that very few pick up on, without having a solid source...
Fortunately for us, we have plenty of sources who are actually behind a lot of these moves...Which is why we can be sure that the Outfits love the Over...
Finally, I made sure to check the forcast...because we all know that the mention of snow will force a huge adjustment downwards...But it appears that won't be a problem on Sunday...
Don't fear seeing this line drop some on game-day, because we all know that public money outweighs wiseguy money, especially in the NFL...And since it appears that the Outfits got down as much as they wanted on this Under...the books may feel confident enough that they won't look to take another position...and therefore lower the Total, in an attempt to give the public the worst of it...
But rest assured, you and I both...are on the same side that the Betting Syndicates will be rooting for come Sunday...And with enough public money on the Under...we just may have the Books rooting in that Over for us as well...VR
©2009 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Magic/Heat UNDER 201
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Michael Beasley dunked home a Dwyane Wade miss to seal a victory in the waning seconds of the Heat’s visit to Orlando last month, and the Magic will look to atone for that surprising loss Thursday night when they try for their seventh win in eight trips to Miami.
The Magic appeared on their way to a 13th victory in 14 regular-season games against the Heat when Wade air-balled a jumper in the closing seconds, but Beasley grabbed it and dunked it to give Miami a controversial 99-98 win.
Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points.
Orlando throttled the Raptors last night; I expect an offensive "letdown" this evening though.
Dwight Howard spent the evening showing why he’s the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, finishing with 14 rebounds and eight blocks.
Keep in mind the total has gone "under" the posted number in 11 of Orlando's last 16 on the road overall.
On the other side of the court: On the topic of his teams recent success: "We have to get that chip back on our shoulder," forward Udonis Haslem said. "At the start of the season, people were picking us to finish near last in the league. Then we started well and people started thinking we're better than people first thought. We might have exhaled a little bit. But that can't be us. We have to get it back."
It's interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of five games vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: I expect both teams to create offense through their defense; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money is on the UNDER!
*9* UNDER.[/FONT]
Magic/Heat UNDER 201
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Michael Beasley dunked home a Dwyane Wade miss to seal a victory in the waning seconds of the Heat’s visit to Orlando last month, and the Magic will look to atone for that surprising loss Thursday night when they try for their seventh win in eight trips to Miami.
The Magic appeared on their way to a 13th victory in 14 regular-season games against the Heat when Wade air-balled a jumper in the closing seconds, but Beasley grabbed it and dunked it to give Miami a controversial 99-98 win.
Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points.
Orlando throttled the Raptors last night; I expect an offensive "letdown" this evening though.
Dwight Howard spent the evening showing why he’s the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, finishing with 14 rebounds and eight blocks.
Keep in mind the total has gone "under" the posted number in 11 of Orlando's last 16 on the road overall.
On the other side of the court: On the topic of his teams recent success: "We have to get that chip back on our shoulder," forward Udonis Haslem said. "At the start of the season, people were picking us to finish near last in the league. Then we started well and people started thinking we're better than people first thought. We might have exhaled a little bit. But that can't be us. We have to get it back."
It's interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of five games vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: I expect both teams to create offense through their defense; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money is on the UNDER!
*9* UNDER.[/FONT]
Ron Raymond
Magic/Heat UNDER 199
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Last 2 years - During the month of December - Coming off vs Eastern conference opponent - Coming off a 1 ATS win - Scored between 116 - 120 POINTS FOR in their last game; the UNDER is 11-4-0 for the Road Favorite (ORL) in this spot the last 2 seasons.
ATS Calculator has this total landing on 198.91 points.
Parity Value Index has the UNDER coming in at 62% on this game.
Take the UNDER.[/FONT]
Magic/Heat UNDER 199
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Last 2 years - During the month of December - Coming off vs Eastern conference opponent - Coming off a 1 ATS win - Scored between 116 - 120 POINTS FOR in their last game; the UNDER is 11-4-0 for the Road Favorite (ORL) in this spot the last 2 seasons.
ATS Calculator has this total landing on 198.91 points.
Parity Value Index has the UNDER coming in at 62% on this game.
Take the UNDER.[/FONT]
