Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM ¦‰
double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 705 PHO
Analysis: Stan is Betting PORTLAND. Stan notes that Portland finished a 4 game East Coast road trip on the 12th and returned home to play a 2 game home stand on the 15th before ending back out on theΠroad for another 4 game road trip. Having won and pushed on Tuesday against Sacramento Stan expects a better effort tonight in Portland's second game back at home. Portland will want to secure a win here as their next 4 games are all tough ones on the road. They go to Orlando, Miami, Dallas & San Antonio. Portland wins by 8-10 points here. TAKE PORTLAND as STAN'S TNT WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 705 PHO
Analysis: Stan is Betting PORTLAND. Stan notes that Portland finished a 4 game East Coast road trip on the 12th and returned home to play a 2 game home stand on the 15th before ending back out on theΠroad for another 4 game road trip. Having won and pushed on Tuesday against Sacramento Stan expects a better effort tonight in Portland's second game back at home. Portland will want to secure a win here as their next 4 games are all tough ones on the road. They go to Orlando, Miami, Dallas & San Antonio. Portland wins by 8-10 points here. TAKE PORTLAND as STAN'S TNT WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
Wunderdog NHL
Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets - Thursday December 17, 2009 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Under 5.5 (-125)
The Phoenix Coyotes have been getting a great job from behind the net of late, and have limited opponents to just 19 goals, under two per contest over their last 10. The Blue Jackets have produced just 19 goals in their last eight games and an even worse five in their last three. The Coyotes are playing way under the total vs. an opponent who scored two or less in their last outing as they have turned in a 19-6-1 mark to the UNDER in that situation. They have also played UNDER to the tune of a 37-16-2 mark overall in their last 55 games. The Blue Jackets are on the short side of the total when posted as a home favorite, turning in a 15-7 mark in their last 22 to the UNDER. These teams make the script complete as they have played UNDER in the last four meetings. The UNDER gets the nod in this one.
Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets - Thursday December 17, 2009 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Under 5.5 (-125)
The Phoenix Coyotes have been getting a great job from behind the net of late, and have limited opponents to just 19 goals, under two per contest over their last 10. The Blue Jackets have produced just 19 goals in their last eight games and an even worse five in their last three. The Coyotes are playing way under the total vs. an opponent who scored two or less in their last outing as they have turned in a 19-6-1 mark to the UNDER in that situation. They have also played UNDER to the tune of a 37-16-2 mark overall in their last 55 games. The Blue Jackets are on the short side of the total when posted as a home favorite, turning in a 15-7 mark in their last 22 to the UNDER. These teams make the script complete as they have played UNDER in the last four meetings. The UNDER gets the nod in this one.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS NL
4.5-STAR – Miami and Orlando Under 202 - Really 202? Why? Yes, these teams have gone over in their last four matchups, but none of those totals were higher than 193. When you look at the results, in only one of their last seven matchups have these teams scored more than 200 combined points. This seems like an awfully big, unjustified jump in a total to us.
Orlando just played last night, in a 118-99 blowout win over To- ronto. In that game, Orlando had 28 assists and only 14 turnovers. The Magic are 0-12 OU (-14.1 ppg) since April 03, 1999 with no rest after a double digit win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two (team=Magic and rest=0 and 10<=p:margin and p:turnovers*2<=p:assists and 19990403<=date).
Shooting 57.3% from the field is really what made that one a route for the Magic. Orlando is 0-8 OU (-14.8 ppg) since No- vember 26, 2007 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 55% from the field. These teams last played in the day before Thanksgiving in a nationally televised ESPN game. The Heat came back from a double digit deficit to win, 99-98. The Magic are 0-10 OU (-17.9 ppg) since February 06, 2008 when seeking revenge for a loss in
which they led by double digits. Miami last played Tuesday, also against the Raptors and also a
blowout win, 115-95. They accomplished this despite commit- ting 23 fouls to just 13 for the Raptors. The League is 0-13 OU (-15.4 ppg) since March 17, 2007 as a dog after a double digit win in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 94, Orlando 93
4.5-STAR – Miami and Orlando Under 202 - Really 202? Why? Yes, these teams have gone over in their last four matchups, but none of those totals were higher than 193. When you look at the results, in only one of their last seven matchups have these teams scored more than 200 combined points. This seems like an awfully big, unjustified jump in a total to us.
Orlando just played last night, in a 118-99 blowout win over To- ronto. In that game, Orlando had 28 assists and only 14 turnovers. The Magic are 0-12 OU (-14.1 ppg) since April 03, 1999 with no rest after a double digit win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two (team=Magic and rest=0 and 10<=p:margin and p:turnovers*2<=p:assists and 19990403<=date).
Shooting 57.3% from the field is really what made that one a route for the Magic. Orlando is 0-8 OU (-14.8 ppg) since No- vember 26, 2007 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 55% from the field. These teams last played in the day before Thanksgiving in a nationally televised ESPN game. The Heat came back from a double digit deficit to win, 99-98. The Magic are 0-10 OU (-17.9 ppg) since February 06, 2008 when seeking revenge for a loss in
which they led by double digits. Miami last played Tuesday, also against the Raptors and also a
blowout win, 115-95. They accomplished this despite commit- ting 23 fouls to just 13 for the Raptors. The League is 0-13 OU (-15.4 ppg) since March 17, 2007 as a dog after a double digit win in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 94, Orlando 93
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Indianapolis (13-0, 9-4 ATS) at Jacksonville (7-6, 5-8 ATS)
The Colts, who have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, continue their march toward a perfect season when they travel to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium to face the Jaguars.
Indianapolis raced out to a 21-0 lead against Denver on Sunday, then held off a second-half Broncos rally in winning 28-16 as a 6½-point home chalk, cashing for the fourth straight week. With the win, the Colts not only wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the set an NFL record with their 22nd consecutive regular-season victory. Indianapolis continues to roll on offense, ranking fourth in total yards at 384.4 per game and fifth in scoring at 27.6 points per game. Also, QB Peyton Manning (29 TDs, 14 INTs) leads the No. 1 passing attack (296.4 ypg), though he threw three INTs last week. Indy also boasts the league’s No. 2 scoring defense, yielding just 16.7 ppg.
The unknown for the Colts this week is how long first-year coach Jim Caldwell will keep his starters in. Caldwell has said his healthy first-stringers will start, but didn’t specify if or when he will start substituting with replacements.
Jacksonville’s playoff hopes took a big blow with a 14-10 home loss to Miami on Sunday as a three-point chalk, its third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). The Jags’ major issue has been an inability to score points, as they average just 18.1 ppg (23rd) while allowing four points more at 22.1 ppg (20th). Jacksonville has been held to 18 points or less seven times, losing six of those games.
Indianapolis narrowly topped Jacksonville 14-12 in Week 1, failing to cover as a 6½-point home chalk while winning SU for the fourth time in five games in this AFC South rivalry (2-3 ATS). The road team has cashed in five consecutive meetings, with Indy going 3-1-1 ATS on its last five trips to Jacksonville.
The Colts are 14-7-1 ATS during their 22-game regular-season win streak), and they are on a bundle of additional pointspread upswings, including 4-1 overall (all as a chalk, and all against the AFC), 6-0-1 on Thursday night, 15-5-1 on the highway, 5-0 as a road chalk and 4-0 in December.
The Jaguars have covered in four of their last five AFC South contests and are on an 11-4-1 ATS roll as a home pup. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 2-7 overall, 3-12 at home, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-6 in December and 3-7 following a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in Indianapolis’ last seven Thursday games and 12-5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 19 contests against winning teams, and the total has gone high six of the last eight times these teams have met in Florida. However, the under is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six division tilts, and the Jags are on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 in December and 4-1 as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
NBA
Orlando (19-6, 14-11 ATS) at Miami (12-11, 11-12 ATS)
The Magic try to end a rare two-game road losing skid when they make the short trip to South Beach for a Southeast Division battle with the Heat at American Airlines Arena.
Orlando won 10 of its first 12 road games to start the season, then fell on back-to-back nights at Utah on Thursday (120-111 as a 2½-point favorite) and at Phoenix on Friday (106-103 as a 2½-point underdog). The Magic have since gotten back on track with a pair of home victories, knocking off the Pacers 106-98 on Tuesday (coming up short as a 12½-point favorite) then pummeling Toronto 118-99 as an 11½-point chalk last night. Stan Van Gundy’s squad has scored in triple digits in eight of its last nine outings, averaging 110.6 ppg.
Miami is coming off Tuesday’s 115-95 rout of Toronto, easily covering as a 6½-point home favorite to end a two-game SU and ATS funk. The Heat have still dropped 10 of their last 16 games, going 5-11 ATS overall, including 1-8 ATS at home. Prior to the victory over the Raptors to start this week, Miami had surrendered 100 points per more in six straight games for an average of 108 ppg.
The Heat went to Orlando on Thanksgiving Eve and stole a 99-98 victory as a 9½-point road underdog, with Dwyane Wade (team-high 24 points) leading five Miami players in double-digit scoring. Despite that outcome, the Magic are still on a 12-2 SU run in this rivalry, going 10-3-1 ATS during this stretch, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to South Beach.
Orlando is on a series of 1-4 ATS slumps – overall, on Thursday and against winning teams – but it is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games against Eastern Conference foes and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against Southeast Division rivals. Miami carries nothing but negative ATS trends, including 5-11 overall, 1-8 at home, 3-8 when playing on one day of rest, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference and 3-11 on Thursday.
The under is 11-5 in the Magic’s last 16 road games and 13-3 in their last 16 on Thursday, while Miami has stayed low in five of six on Thursday and five of seven against division rivals. Conversely, the Heat are on “over” runs of 5-0 overall, 5-2 at home and 4-0 against winning team, and the last four meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Phoenix (17-8, 15-10 ATS) at Portland (15-11, 12-13-1 ATS)
Two teams struggling with consistency right now hook up at the Rose Garden, where the Trail Blazers will attempt to upend the Suns for the third consecutive time.
Phoenix routed the Spurs 116-104 on Tuesday, easily cashing as a two-point home favorite. The Suns have followed up an 0-4 ATS drought with four straight spread-covers, but they’re still just 3-5 SU in their last eight games, with all five losses coming on the road. In those five road setbacks, Phoenix – which averages 108.7 ppg overall – managed just 95.4 ppg.
Portland returned home Tuesday after a four-game road trip and held off the Kings 95-88, pushing as a seven-point chalk. Despite that win, the Blazers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine games (2-2 at home) and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10. Prior to this recent funk, Nate McMillan’s squad had been on a 10-2 SU roll.
The home team has won each of the last five meetings between these squads (4-1 ATS). The final two clashes last year took place at the Rose Garden, with Portland winning by scores of 124-119 and 129-109, splitting the cash as a 6½-point chalk in each contest. Prior to those two wins, the Blazers had lost 11 straight games to the Suns (2-8-1 ATS), and Phoenix is still 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 battles and 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Portland. Finally, the favorite is on a 16-5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Suns are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall (all against winning teams), 4-1 against the Northwest Division, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2 when playing on one day of rest, but they’re 5-18 ATS in their last 23 on Thursday.
Portland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last ssevenix against the Pacific Division, but otherwise the Blazers are in pointspread slumps of 2-7-1 overall, 0-4-1 at home, 1-5 versus winning teams, 2-5 after a SU victory and 4-10 on Thursday.
Phoenix topped the total in Wednesday’s victory over San Antonio, ending an 8-0 “under” streak. Still, the Suns remain on “under” tears of 8-0-1 on the road, 5-0-1 when playing after one day of rest, 4-0-1 after a SU victory and 3-1-1 against the Northwest Division, but the over is 6-1 in their last seven on Thursday. Portland is on “under” streaks of 10-4 at home, 14-5 versus Western Conference foes and 4-1 against winning teams.
Finally, the over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings between these teams and 8-3 in the last 11 clashes at the Rose Garden.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NFL
Indianapolis (13-0, 9-4 ATS) at Jacksonville (7-6, 5-8 ATS)
The Colts, who have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, continue their march toward a perfect season when they travel to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium to face the Jaguars.
Indianapolis raced out to a 21-0 lead against Denver on Sunday, then held off a second-half Broncos rally in winning 28-16 as a 6½-point home chalk, cashing for the fourth straight week. With the win, the Colts not only wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the set an NFL record with their 22nd consecutive regular-season victory. Indianapolis continues to roll on offense, ranking fourth in total yards at 384.4 per game and fifth in scoring at 27.6 points per game. Also, QB Peyton Manning (29 TDs, 14 INTs) leads the No. 1 passing attack (296.4 ypg), though he threw three INTs last week. Indy also boasts the league’s No. 2 scoring defense, yielding just 16.7 ppg.
The unknown for the Colts this week is how long first-year coach Jim Caldwell will keep his starters in. Caldwell has said his healthy first-stringers will start, but didn’t specify if or when he will start substituting with replacements.
Jacksonville’s playoff hopes took a big blow with a 14-10 home loss to Miami on Sunday as a three-point chalk, its third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). The Jags’ major issue has been an inability to score points, as they average just 18.1 ppg (23rd) while allowing four points more at 22.1 ppg (20th). Jacksonville has been held to 18 points or less seven times, losing six of those games.
Indianapolis narrowly topped Jacksonville 14-12 in Week 1, failing to cover as a 6½-point home chalk while winning SU for the fourth time in five games in this AFC South rivalry (2-3 ATS). The road team has cashed in five consecutive meetings, with Indy going 3-1-1 ATS on its last five trips to Jacksonville.
The Colts are 14-7-1 ATS during their 22-game regular-season win streak), and they are on a bundle of additional pointspread upswings, including 4-1 overall (all as a chalk, and all against the AFC), 6-0-1 on Thursday night, 15-5-1 on the highway, 5-0 as a road chalk and 4-0 in December.
The Jaguars have covered in four of their last five AFC South contests and are on an 11-4-1 ATS roll as a home pup. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 2-7 overall, 3-12 at home, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-6 in December and 3-7 following a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in Indianapolis’ last seven Thursday games and 12-5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 19 contests against winning teams, and the total has gone high six of the last eight times these teams have met in Florida. However, the under is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six division tilts, and the Jags are on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 in December and 4-1 as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
NBA
Orlando (19-6, 14-11 ATS) at Miami (12-11, 11-12 ATS)
The Magic try to end a rare two-game road losing skid when they make the short trip to South Beach for a Southeast Division battle with the Heat at American Airlines Arena.
Orlando won 10 of its first 12 road games to start the season, then fell on back-to-back nights at Utah on Thursday (120-111 as a 2½-point favorite) and at Phoenix on Friday (106-103 as a 2½-point underdog). The Magic have since gotten back on track with a pair of home victories, knocking off the Pacers 106-98 on Tuesday (coming up short as a 12½-point favorite) then pummeling Toronto 118-99 as an 11½-point chalk last night. Stan Van Gundy’s squad has scored in triple digits in eight of its last nine outings, averaging 110.6 ppg.
Miami is coming off Tuesday’s 115-95 rout of Toronto, easily covering as a 6½-point home favorite to end a two-game SU and ATS funk. The Heat have still dropped 10 of their last 16 games, going 5-11 ATS overall, including 1-8 ATS at home. Prior to the victory over the Raptors to start this week, Miami had surrendered 100 points per more in six straight games for an average of 108 ppg.
The Heat went to Orlando on Thanksgiving Eve and stole a 99-98 victory as a 9½-point road underdog, with Dwyane Wade (team-high 24 points) leading five Miami players in double-digit scoring. Despite that outcome, the Magic are still on a 12-2 SU run in this rivalry, going 10-3-1 ATS during this stretch, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to South Beach.
Orlando is on a series of 1-4 ATS slumps – overall, on Thursday and against winning teams – but it is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games against Eastern Conference foes and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against Southeast Division rivals. Miami carries nothing but negative ATS trends, including 5-11 overall, 1-8 at home, 3-8 when playing on one day of rest, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference and 3-11 on Thursday.
The under is 11-5 in the Magic’s last 16 road games and 13-3 in their last 16 on Thursday, while Miami has stayed low in five of six on Thursday and five of seven against division rivals. Conversely, the Heat are on “over” runs of 5-0 overall, 5-2 at home and 4-0 against winning team, and the last four meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Phoenix (17-8, 15-10 ATS) at Portland (15-11, 12-13-1 ATS)
Two teams struggling with consistency right now hook up at the Rose Garden, where the Trail Blazers will attempt to upend the Suns for the third consecutive time.
Phoenix routed the Spurs 116-104 on Tuesday, easily cashing as a two-point home favorite. The Suns have followed up an 0-4 ATS drought with four straight spread-covers, but they’re still just 3-5 SU in their last eight games, with all five losses coming on the road. In those five road setbacks, Phoenix – which averages 108.7 ppg overall – managed just 95.4 ppg.
Portland returned home Tuesday after a four-game road trip and held off the Kings 95-88, pushing as a seven-point chalk. Despite that win, the Blazers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine games (2-2 at home) and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10. Prior to this recent funk, Nate McMillan’s squad had been on a 10-2 SU roll.
The home team has won each of the last five meetings between these squads (4-1 ATS). The final two clashes last year took place at the Rose Garden, with Portland winning by scores of 124-119 and 129-109, splitting the cash as a 6½-point chalk in each contest. Prior to those two wins, the Blazers had lost 11 straight games to the Suns (2-8-1 ATS), and Phoenix is still 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 battles and 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Portland. Finally, the favorite is on a 16-5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Suns are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall (all against winning teams), 4-1 against the Northwest Division, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2 when playing on one day of rest, but they’re 5-18 ATS in their last 23 on Thursday.
Portland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last ssevenix against the Pacific Division, but otherwise the Blazers are in pointspread slumps of 2-7-1 overall, 0-4-1 at home, 1-5 versus winning teams, 2-5 after a SU victory and 4-10 on Thursday.
Phoenix topped the total in Wednesday’s victory over San Antonio, ending an 8-0 “under” streak. Still, the Suns remain on “under” tears of 8-0-1 on the road, 5-0-1 when playing after one day of rest, 4-0-1 after a SU victory and 3-1-1 against the Northwest Division, but the over is 6-1 in their last seven on Thursday. Portland is on “under” streaks of 10-4 at home, 14-5 versus Western Conference foes and 4-1 against winning teams.
Finally, the over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings between these teams and 8-3 in the last 11 clashes at the Rose Garden.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
DON BEST STEAM
10:34:50am 2009-12-27 220 Clemson Under 52½
10:15:44am 2009-12-17 722 Nevada Under 152
9:42:25am 2009-12-22 208 Oregon State Under 60½
9:24:25am 2009-12-17 708 Florida State Over 131
9:24:08am 2009-12-20 206 So Mississippi Under 58½
8:59:22am 2009-12-20 328 Seattle Under 40
8:50:53am 2009-12-17 709 New Orleans U +12½
8:30:58am 2009-12-17 715 Elon +21
8:20:18am 2009-12-17 704 Miami Over 199
8:14:49am 2009-12-17 721 E. Washington +18
8:11:05am 2009-12-17 707 Auburn +10½
8:08:17am 2009-12-17 714 Fresno State -13½
8:05:54am 2009-12-17 718 Evansville -10
8:01:00am 2009-12-17 702 Chicago Over 203
10:34:50am 2009-12-27 220 Clemson Under 52½
10:15:44am 2009-12-17 722 Nevada Under 152
9:42:25am 2009-12-22 208 Oregon State Under 60½
9:24:25am 2009-12-17 708 Florida State Over 131
9:24:08am 2009-12-20 206 So Mississippi Under 58½
8:59:22am 2009-12-20 328 Seattle Under 40
8:50:53am 2009-12-17 709 New Orleans U +12½
8:30:58am 2009-12-17 715 Elon +21
8:20:18am 2009-12-17 704 Miami Over 199
8:14:49am 2009-12-17 721 E. Washington +18
8:11:05am 2009-12-17 707 Auburn +10½
8:08:17am 2009-12-17 714 Fresno State -13½
8:05:54am 2009-12-17 718 Evansville -10
8:01:00am 2009-12-17 702 Chicago Over 203
