GINA
The Bears are 3-1 on the road and face a Miami team in turmoil and their third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Miami is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home. Go with the Bears to squezze a win in South Beach.
Chicago Bears +1½
Denver Nuggets (6-5) at Portland Trail Blazers (7-5)
The Nuggets have dropped their last three road games, 2-8 in its last 10. Go with the Trail Blazers to take a home victory against the Nuggets tonight at the Rose Garden even without leading their scorer forward Brandon Roy in the lineup. The Nuggets have lost four of its last six in Portland and the home team in this series is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Portland Trail Blazers -3
The Bears are 3-1 on the road and face a Miami team in turmoil and their third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Miami is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home. Go with the Bears to squezze a win in South Beach.
Chicago Bears +1½
Denver Nuggets (6-5) at Portland Trail Blazers (7-5)
The Nuggets have dropped their last three road games, 2-8 in its last 10. Go with the Trail Blazers to take a home victory against the Nuggets tonight at the Rose Garden even without leading their scorer forward Brandon Roy in the lineup. The Nuggets have lost four of its last six in Portland and the home team in this series is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Portland Trail Blazers -3
DAVE MALINSKY
GAME: Illinois @ Northwestern Nov 20, 2010 3:30PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Northwestern
Offered at: 8 BetJamaica
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #360 NORTHWESTERN over ILLINOIS
We set the stage for this one in this week’s edition of ”VERITIES & BALDERDASH”, when we once again went into detail about the remarkable run that Pat Fitzgerald continues to have in this category. But because it is still Northwestern, a program that lacks sex appeal, we do not see proper adjustments, and that means time to go to the well once again, especially with the injury to Dan Persa leading to a bigger adjustment than it should.
First, the Fitzgerald story. He took over at his alma mater under trying circumstances, and the Wildcats got off to a slow start in his first season. That can easily be excused. But once he began to get his system in play there has been a major turnaround – they are heading to a bowl for the third straight season. Because of the tenacity and tactics of the head coach it has been a sparkling 18-9 ATS run in the last 27 underdog settings, but in this case it goes far beyond that – in 13 of those games the Wildcats won the game outright, and two of the defeats came in O.T. in tough bowl losses to Auburn and Missouri. So the true bottom line is that in the last 27 underdog opportunities, Northwestern is an impressive 13-12-2 SU in regulation. And note that the deeper we get into the season the more impressive the count becomes – Fitzgerald and his team have been underdogs in November 13 times, and won the game outright on nine occasions. Two of the four games they did not win came vs. Ohio State, which is easily excused.
So fast forward to this week and what do we have? What has been the flat-out superior program (Northwestern is 34-26 under Fitzgerald; Illinois 26-44 in the Ron Zook years), taking more than a full TD on a neutral field that will actually favor their fan base slightly (the Wildcats were awarded more tickets to Wrigley because it is their season to host this rivalry game). And in the Fitzgerald/Zook head-to-heads it is a 3-1 SU and ATS run to Northwestern, beating the spread by 48.5 points over those games.
Yes, much of this line is because of the absence of Persa, who should get a lot of Big 10 MVP notice for the great season he was having. But there is a legit talent to replace him in 6-6/245 RS FR Evan Watkins, who possesses a much stronger arm, and while he lacks the quickness of the nimble Persa running the ball, he brings a power dimension (750 rushing yards and 15 TD’s in his two seasons as a high school starter, not all that far from where this game will be played at Glenbard North). He has the talent and the moxie to be trusted here, and makes it difficult for the Illinois defense to tactically prepare, since they can not be aware of the way that the offense will be tweaked to take advantage of Watkins’ arm strength. This is a defense that is showing clear signs of wearing down (two weeks ago Michigan’s offense had its #1 conference output for points and total yards, even without counting the O.T. periods; last week Minnesota produced #1 for points and #2 for yards in Big 10 play), and can be vulnerable in playing for the 8th straight week.
GAME: Illinois @ Northwestern Nov 20, 2010 3:30PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Northwestern
Offered at: 8 BetJamaica
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #360 NORTHWESTERN over ILLINOIS
We set the stage for this one in this week’s edition of ”VERITIES & BALDERDASH”, when we once again went into detail about the remarkable run that Pat Fitzgerald continues to have in this category. But because it is still Northwestern, a program that lacks sex appeal, we do not see proper adjustments, and that means time to go to the well once again, especially with the injury to Dan Persa leading to a bigger adjustment than it should.
First, the Fitzgerald story. He took over at his alma mater under trying circumstances, and the Wildcats got off to a slow start in his first season. That can easily be excused. But once he began to get his system in play there has been a major turnaround – they are heading to a bowl for the third straight season. Because of the tenacity and tactics of the head coach it has been a sparkling 18-9 ATS run in the last 27 underdog settings, but in this case it goes far beyond that – in 13 of those games the Wildcats won the game outright, and two of the defeats came in O.T. in tough bowl losses to Auburn and Missouri. So the true bottom line is that in the last 27 underdog opportunities, Northwestern is an impressive 13-12-2 SU in regulation. And note that the deeper we get into the season the more impressive the count becomes – Fitzgerald and his team have been underdogs in November 13 times, and won the game outright on nine occasions. Two of the four games they did not win came vs. Ohio State, which is easily excused.
So fast forward to this week and what do we have? What has been the flat-out superior program (Northwestern is 34-26 under Fitzgerald; Illinois 26-44 in the Ron Zook years), taking more than a full TD on a neutral field that will actually favor their fan base slightly (the Wildcats were awarded more tickets to Wrigley because it is their season to host this rivalry game). And in the Fitzgerald/Zook head-to-heads it is a 3-1 SU and ATS run to Northwestern, beating the spread by 48.5 points over those games.
Yes, much of this line is because of the absence of Persa, who should get a lot of Big 10 MVP notice for the great season he was having. But there is a legit talent to replace him in 6-6/245 RS FR Evan Watkins, who possesses a much stronger arm, and while he lacks the quickness of the nimble Persa running the ball, he brings a power dimension (750 rushing yards and 15 TD’s in his two seasons as a high school starter, not all that far from where this game will be played at Glenbard North). He has the talent and the moxie to be trusted here, and makes it difficult for the Illinois defense to tactically prepare, since they can not be aware of the way that the offense will be tweaked to take advantage of Watkins’ arm strength. This is a defense that is showing clear signs of wearing down (two weeks ago Michigan’s offense had its #1 conference output for points and total yards, even without counting the O.T. periods; last week Minnesota produced #1 for points and #2 for yards in Big 10 play), and can be vulnerable in playing for the 8th straight week.
BIG AL'S 82% ATS COLLEGE HOOPS GAME!
Selection: Central Florida Opponent: S. Fla Line: -6.5
Analysis: At 7 pm, our NCAA Basketball Game of the Week is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over South Florida, as UCF falls into a terrific early season 'momentum' system of mine that's 116-39 ATS since 1990, as well as a 2nd angle that's 82% since 1998. The Knights come into this game off back to back wins to start the season -- 80-39 over Jackson St, and 115-61 in their opener vs. West Florida. And what was extremely impressive was their defense in those 2 victories. UCF held Jackson St to 18% Field Goal Shooting (!), and West Florida to 35% (while shooting 59 and 66 percent themselves). And over the past 13 years, teams off 2 wins to start the season, in which they gave up 100 points or less combined in those two games, are an awesome 74% ATS at home vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win, and 82% if our home team is not laying more than 10 points. UCF is 15-3 ATS in the regular season after giving up 60 or less in its previous game, and I look for the Knights to blow out S. Florida today. Lay the points
Selection: Central Florida Opponent: S. Fla Line: -6.5
Analysis: At 7 pm, our NCAA Basketball Game of the Week is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over South Florida, as UCF falls into a terrific early season 'momentum' system of mine that's 116-39 ATS since 1990, as well as a 2nd angle that's 82% since 1998. The Knights come into this game off back to back wins to start the season -- 80-39 over Jackson St, and 115-61 in their opener vs. West Florida. And what was extremely impressive was their defense in those 2 victories. UCF held Jackson St to 18% Field Goal Shooting (!), and West Florida to 35% (while shooting 59 and 66 percent themselves). And over the past 13 years, teams off 2 wins to start the season, in which they gave up 100 points or less combined in those two games, are an awesome 74% ATS at home vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win, and 82% if our home team is not laying more than 10 points. UCF is 15-3 ATS in the regular season after giving up 60 or less in its previous game, and I look for the Knights to blow out S. Florida today. Lay the points
