SPORTS WAGERS - RANDALL THE HANDLE
MIAMI –1½ over Chicago
Lots to like about the Fish here. First, they’re being forced to go with its third string QB, Tyler Thigpen. Normally turning to your third-stringer is a big deterrent for most and it’s one of the reasons this line is so cheap. Thing is, Tyler Thigpen could be a #1 QB on quite a few teams in this league. You may or may not remember him when he was the pivot for a brutal Chiefs team two seasons ago. At that time the Chiefs were losing a ton of games and attracted very little attention so Thigpen flew under the radar. They weren’t losing because of him and in fact, he was the only reason they were in a few games. Thigpen is experienced, he’s talented and a door just opened up for him. For Miami, this could truly be a blessing in disguise. Thigpen threw for 2,608 yards and 18 touchdowns in ‘08, though the Chiefs prevailed in just one of his 11 starts. He’s just 26-years-old and has been patiently waiting in the wings. He came in last week and went 4-6 with 64 yards and one TD. The Bears come in here with an impressive 6-3 mark. They opened the year 3-0 with three lucky wins over Detroit, Green Bay and Dallas. They went on to lose three of its next four to the Giants, Seattle and Washington and in between picked up a win over Carolina. Then came the bye week followed by wins over Buffalo and a dysfunctional Vikes squad. Truth be told, the Bears are an ugly 6-3 and aside from its very fortunate win over Green Bay, they have zero wins against winning teams. They’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league and again, they already have losses to Washington and Seattle, the latter at Soldier Field. The Bears are coming off a big win over rival Vikings and will now travel on short rest, which is a huge disadvantage. Under the best of conditions, Chicago would be in tough here but this is anything but. This Bears team is not even close to being a true 6-3 team. They’re imposters to the highest degree and with seven games left against Miami, Philly, in Detroit, New England, in Minnesota, Jets and in Green Bay, they may not win another game this season and its string of playing and beating lousy opponents ends here. Play: Miami -1½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Jersey +1.23 over Toronto
The Leafs snapped an ugly funk with an unlikely win over the Preds and it was unlikely because they were down 3-0 very early and 4-1 about five minutes into the second period. It seemed impossible for them to come back but a string of bizarre events followed that allowed them to do just that. What occurred in the second period of that game you will not see for another 50 years. With the crowd silent and the Leafs looking like they wanted to run and hide, the refs called a penalty. They then called another one and another one and another one and another one and another one…all on the Preds. That gave the Leafs three, 5 on 3 power-plays in a row and they connected four times on the power play in the second period. What you won’t see again in 50 years is four PP goals in one period or three successive 5 on 3 PP’s. The Leafs scoring four goals in one period is the other very rare occurrence. So, the Maple Leafs have now won twice in its last 11 games and both wins were courtesy of the refs. The other one was when the Leafs scored the go-ahead goal late in the third when offensive star Colton Orr barreled into the goaltender. It was perhaps the most blatant goaltender interference ever that was not called. So, what we have here is a Leafs squad that should be a 0-11 run favored over a Devils squad that is as hungry as any team in the league for a win. Fact is, the Devils are the superior team here that is off to a bad start but unlike the Leafs, they’ll go a big run at some point. The Leafs have a game in Montreal on Saturday night and while this host can’t afford to look ahead to anything, coach Ron Wilson is absolutely more concerned about not being embarrassed on Saturday night than he is about this game. Devils plus a tag against the Leafs is about as good as it gets. Play: New Jersey +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS -½ +1.42 over San Jose
The Sharkies are a damn good team. Make no mistake, this team is loaded with offense, they have quality defenseman and its only real flaw is goaltending. When you badly outplay the opposition and your goalie seldom comes up with a big save, it takes the steam out of a squad and that’s precisely what has occurred this season with the Sharks. They were completely dominating the Av’s last night in Colorado and were up 4-1 late in the second period. The Sharkies outshot the Av’s 15-3 in the second and 15-8 in the third, yet they remarkably lost the game because Nittymaki couldn’t stop anything. That was a demoralizing loss and now the Sharkies will play its third game in four nights, its fifth game in seven nights and the tail end of back-to-backs after a game in the high altitude of Colorado last night. Ouch. Nittymaki stopped 18 of 22 shots on net yesterday while Peter Budaj stopped 40 of 43. Expect to see Niemi in net tonight under difficult circumstances and he’s not the answer. The Stars are 6-3 at home and they’ve been getting great goaltending from Kari Lehtonen. They’re well rested and they’re in a very favorable spot here. This has always been a difficult venue for San Jose and in fact, its last two visits here resulted in 5-1 and 8-2 defeats and that was under much better conditions than they’re facing here. Playing against a demoralized Sharks squad running strictly on fumes is a recipe for cashing a ticket. Play: Dallas -½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
MIAMI –1½ over Chicago
Lots to like about the Fish here. First, they’re being forced to go with its third string QB, Tyler Thigpen. Normally turning to your third-stringer is a big deterrent for most and it’s one of the reasons this line is so cheap. Thing is, Tyler Thigpen could be a #1 QB on quite a few teams in this league. You may or may not remember him when he was the pivot for a brutal Chiefs team two seasons ago. At that time the Chiefs were losing a ton of games and attracted very little attention so Thigpen flew under the radar. They weren’t losing because of him and in fact, he was the only reason they were in a few games. Thigpen is experienced, he’s talented and a door just opened up for him. For Miami, this could truly be a blessing in disguise. Thigpen threw for 2,608 yards and 18 touchdowns in ‘08, though the Chiefs prevailed in just one of his 11 starts. He’s just 26-years-old and has been patiently waiting in the wings. He came in last week and went 4-6 with 64 yards and one TD. The Bears come in here with an impressive 6-3 mark. They opened the year 3-0 with three lucky wins over Detroit, Green Bay and Dallas. They went on to lose three of its next four to the Giants, Seattle and Washington and in between picked up a win over Carolina. Then came the bye week followed by wins over Buffalo and a dysfunctional Vikes squad. Truth be told, the Bears are an ugly 6-3 and aside from its very fortunate win over Green Bay, they have zero wins against winning teams. They’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league and again, they already have losses to Washington and Seattle, the latter at Soldier Field. The Bears are coming off a big win over rival Vikings and will now travel on short rest, which is a huge disadvantage. Under the best of conditions, Chicago would be in tough here but this is anything but. This Bears team is not even close to being a true 6-3 team. They’re imposters to the highest degree and with seven games left against Miami, Philly, in Detroit, New England, in Minnesota, Jets and in Green Bay, they may not win another game this season and its string of playing and beating lousy opponents ends here. Play: Miami -1½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Jersey +1.23 over Toronto
The Leafs snapped an ugly funk with an unlikely win over the Preds and it was unlikely because they were down 3-0 very early and 4-1 about five minutes into the second period. It seemed impossible for them to come back but a string of bizarre events followed that allowed them to do just that. What occurred in the second period of that game you will not see for another 50 years. With the crowd silent and the Leafs looking like they wanted to run and hide, the refs called a penalty. They then called another one and another one and another one and another one and another one…all on the Preds. That gave the Leafs three, 5 on 3 power-plays in a row and they connected four times on the power play in the second period. What you won’t see again in 50 years is four PP goals in one period or three successive 5 on 3 PP’s. The Leafs scoring four goals in one period is the other very rare occurrence. So, the Maple Leafs have now won twice in its last 11 games and both wins were courtesy of the refs. The other one was when the Leafs scored the go-ahead goal late in the third when offensive star Colton Orr barreled into the goaltender. It was perhaps the most blatant goaltender interference ever that was not called. So, what we have here is a Leafs squad that should be a 0-11 run favored over a Devils squad that is as hungry as any team in the league for a win. Fact is, the Devils are the superior team here that is off to a bad start but unlike the Leafs, they’ll go a big run at some point. The Leafs have a game in Montreal on Saturday night and while this host can’t afford to look ahead to anything, coach Ron Wilson is absolutely more concerned about not being embarrassed on Saturday night than he is about this game. Devils plus a tag against the Leafs is about as good as it gets. Play: New Jersey +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS -½ +1.42 over San Jose
The Sharkies are a damn good team. Make no mistake, this team is loaded with offense, they have quality defenseman and its only real flaw is goaltending. When you badly outplay the opposition and your goalie seldom comes up with a big save, it takes the steam out of a squad and that’s precisely what has occurred this season with the Sharks. They were completely dominating the Av’s last night in Colorado and were up 4-1 late in the second period. The Sharkies outshot the Av’s 15-3 in the second and 15-8 in the third, yet they remarkably lost the game because Nittymaki couldn’t stop anything. That was a demoralizing loss and now the Sharkies will play its third game in four nights, its fifth game in seven nights and the tail end of back-to-backs after a game in the high altitude of Colorado last night. Ouch. Nittymaki stopped 18 of 22 shots on net yesterday while Peter Budaj stopped 40 of 43. Expect to see Niemi in net tonight under difficult circumstances and he’s not the answer. The Stars are 6-3 at home and they’ve been getting great goaltending from Kari Lehtonen. They’re well rested and they’re in a very favorable spot here. This has always been a difficult venue for San Jose and in fact, its last two visits here resulted in 5-1 and 8-2 defeats and that was under much better conditions than they’re facing here. Playing against a demoralized Sharks squad running strictly on fumes is a recipe for cashing a ticket. Play: Dallas -½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
COMPS:
1. NSA(The Legend) NBA - Clippers over 202
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden NBA - Clippers over 202
3. VegasSI.com CBB - Boston College over 135.5
4. SportsAction365.com NBA - Trailblazers -2
5. Gameday Network CBB - Boston College -20
6. William E. Stockton CBB - Wofford -18
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino CBB - Minnesota -5.5
8. Lou Panelli CBB - Arizona -10.5
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall CBB - Central Florida -7.5
10. Vincent Pioli NBA - Trailblazers -2
11. John Morrison CBB - East Carolina +14.5
12. Tony Campone CBB - Pittsburgh -7
13. Chicago Sports Group NBA - Magic -9.5
14. Hollywood Sportsline CBB - Nebraska over 133.5
15. VIP Action CBB - Minnesota -5.5
16. South Beach Sports CBB - Colorado State +1
17. Michigan Sports NBA - Magic -9.5
18. NY Players Club NBA - Trailblazers -2
19. Charlies Sports NBA - Magic -9.5
20. Fred Callahan NBA - Trailblazers -2
1. NSA(The Legend) NBA - Clippers over 202
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden NBA - Clippers over 202
3. VegasSI.com CBB - Boston College over 135.5
4. SportsAction365.com NBA - Trailblazers -2
5. Gameday Network CBB - Boston College -20
6. William E. Stockton CBB - Wofford -18
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino CBB - Minnesota -5.5
8. Lou Panelli CBB - Arizona -10.5
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall CBB - Central Florida -7.5
10. Vincent Pioli NBA - Trailblazers -2
11. John Morrison CBB - East Carolina +14.5
12. Tony Campone CBB - Pittsburgh -7
13. Chicago Sports Group NBA - Magic -9.5
14. Hollywood Sportsline CBB - Nebraska over 133.5
15. VIP Action CBB - Minnesota -5.5
16. South Beach Sports CBB - Colorado State +1
17. Michigan Sports NBA - Magic -9.5
18. NY Players Club NBA - Trailblazers -2
19. Charlies Sports NBA - Magic -9.5
20. Fred Callahan NBA - Trailblazers -2
Statsystems report 11/18
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/18
NBA, NFL & NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA, NFL & CFB *****
*** UCLA @ WASHINGTON (-2, O/U 53.5) ***
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The main storyline surrounding this game is whether or not Washington QB Jake Locker (broken rib) will be under center as his Huskies host the UCLA Bruins in a ESPN Thursday night Pac 10 showdown. Despite Locker's questionable status, Washington is still a 2.5-point favorite at most of our recommended online sportsbooks.
With or without Locker, the Huskies are struggling right now. They've lost three straight games - by a combined 92 points - and are one-point away from a five game losing streak. In fact, two of UW's three wins this season have come by exactly one point. They have been a poor pointspread team as well, going just 3-6 at the betting window. In their last game, they did manage to pick up an ATS win, but that was largely due to the fact they were getting a generous 38 points from the oddsmakers against Oregon, who blew out the Locker-less Huskies 53-16.
Although they gave up 53 points in the loss, the Washington defense did its job - at least for the first quarter - where they held Oregon's top-ranked scoring offense scoreless. Redshirt freshman QB Keith Price wasn't too effective in Locker's stead, completing 14 of 28 passes for only 127 yards and one touchdown. He would obviously get the start here if Locker can't go.
There is a pretty unique betting trend in play this week for the Huskies and it is one that their backers will not want to hear. Since 1992, Washington is 0-7 against the spread when they are coming off back to back Pac 10 losses and allowed at least 31 points in at least both games. Also, they are just 14-30 ATS when facing teams with a losing record and at 4-5, UCLA qualifies. It's also interesting to note that the Bruins aren't too good against losing teams, covering only seven of their last 27 games.
UCLA ended its own three-game losing skid with a 17-14 upset win over Oregon State last Saturday as four-point underdogs. They needed a 51 yd FG from kicker Kai Forbath on the game's final play to pull out the SU win. The Bruins had previously been outscored 124-42 in their three previous games.
UCLA has typically dominated Washington head-to-head, winning 11 of the last 13 matchups. That includes a 24-23 win last season where they did not cover the 4.5-point spread, although they did overcome a 5-1 turnover deficit. The game featured five lead changes and the Bruins needed an INT on their own 20 yard line on UW's final drive to preserve the victory.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
UPDATE: Washington HC Steve Sarkisian has announced that Locker has been cleared to play. This will be his final home game and the Huskies will be wearing special black uniforms for the first time in school history.
The Huskies have lost the last three games SU, ATS and ‘ITS’, they’re just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS when laying points this season! In fact, two of their three wins in 2010 have come by one point. UCLA has dominated this series since 1998, going 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS including 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS as a dog.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - UCLA by 1; O/U 48
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Washington -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Washington -0.44
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 26-51 ATS (-29.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 24.8, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 27.6, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--UCLA is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 22.1, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--UCLA is 7-20 ATS (-14.9 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 27.0, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--UCLA is 20-8 UNDER (+11.2 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 22.1, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCLA is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCLA 18.1, OPPONENT 27.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--UCLA is 58-83 against the 1rst half line (-33.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 12.2, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--UCLA is 7-21 against the 1rst half line (-16.1 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 11.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 14.3, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCLA is 22-5 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 11.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (WASHINGTON) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, when playing on a Thursday.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.3
The average score in these games was: Team 20.9, Opponent 20.4 (Total points scored = 41.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (52-18).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 (UCLA) - poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (>=440 YPG).
(24-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.0%, +15.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.3, Opponent 15 (Total first half points scored = 30.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (24-8).
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• • • • • 15-0 ATS CFB SYSTEMS PLAY! - THURSDAY • • • • •
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Stan's RED~HOT run on the gridiron continues Thursday night when he shares a College Football Super System Play directly from his powerful database that has gone 15-0 ATS since 1980. "Be sure to get it now, and win again with 'The Man Tonight!"
Once again as promised, Stan cashed with his NBA Super Situational Game of the day Wednesday! – (Chicago/San Antonio Under 103.5 1rst half) - Chicago put it to the homestanding Spurs in the first half, holding San Antonio to 37 points and holding a 10-point lead. Extending 'Stan The Man's winning streak on the hardwood to 11-3, (78.6%) with his last fourteen *5-Star selections!
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 100 - very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season, dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game.
25-4 since 1996 (86.2%, +20.6 units).
Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** AIR FORCE (-19.5, O/U 56) @ UNLV ***
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The Air Force Falcons close out their regular season on Thursday night as they pay a visit to the UNLV Rebels for a Mountain West Conference showdown at Sam Boyd Stadium. Since losing three straight games against powerful conference competition, the Falcons have turned the corner and are now riding a two-game win streak. Last weekend the Falcons posted a 48-23 win over New Mexico at home to help strengthen their case for making it the postseason again this year.
As for the Rebels, they finally managed to get back into the win column by putting up a 42-16 victory over the Wyoming Cowboys here at home in the desert. The win snapped a five-game slide for UNLV, but was still just the second triumph of the season for the team, following a 45-10 romp over New Mexico back in late September. The academy captured a 45-17 win in last year's matchup with UNLV and that leaves the Falcons with an 11-4 edge in the series as a result. Air Force has won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings with the Rebels.
Asher Clark ran for a pair of touchdowns and gained 95 yards on 19 carries for the Falcons as they overcame the loss of quarterback Tim Jefferson to record the lopsided win over the Lobos last weekend. Jefferson, who suffered a head injury that has him listed as questionable for the matchup with UNLV, hit on 2-of-3 passes before leaving. Stepping in was Connor Dietz who generated 67 yards and a TD through the air, not to mention a rushing score for a unit that gained 373 yards and posted six TDs in the victory. Not to knock Jefferson and his passing ability, but everyone knows this offense is predicated on how well the Falcons move the ball on the ground. At this stage the team is back to being first in the conference and second in the nation in rushing with 315.6 ypg, having gained more than 300 yards six times this season and scoring a total of 36 touchdowns on the ground. It’s nice to always have the option to put the ball in the air, but for the Falcons it isn't necessary.
The Falcons defense watched the Lobos march down the field on their first possession of the game on Saturday and score a touchdown, but considering UNM was handed a short field after a lost fumble it wasn't all the unit's fault. Air Force did bounce back, allowing just two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but by then the outcome had already been decided. Jordan Waiwaiole was again instrumental in the squad's success with eight tackles, 1.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage. Catching opponents behind the line of scrimmage has not been a strong suit for the Falcons this season and at the moment the group is ranked sixth in the conference and 97th nationally with just 4.8 TFLs per game. What's worse, the unit has recorded a mere 1.18 sacks per outing and that has the academy ranked seventh in the MWC and 110th in the nation entering play this week.
Even though quarterback Omar Clayton generally makes the headlines for the Rebels, it was freshman running back Tim Cornett who stole the show for UNLV as he scored one touchdown in every quarter of the team's win over Wyoming last week. Cornett totaled 70 yards and three TDs on the ground and one catch for 12 yards and a score to become the first player since 1994 to have four TDs for the Rebels. Clayton did have his share of the highlights though, as he converted 13-of-18 passes for 163 yards and three touchdowns, but it was Cornett who earned a share of MWC Offensive Player of the Week honors. As great as it was for Cornett to earn himself and the UNLV offense some respect, the fact remains that the so-called rushing attack for the Rebels is still last in the conference with just 107.1 ypg and overall the offense ranks 118th in the nation with a mere 269.9 ypg at the moment as well.
The Rebels allowed Wyoming quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels to run for 92 yards and a touchdown and also throw for another 108 yards, but aside from his efforts the Cowboys did little to threaten the inevitable victory by UNLV. Wyoming was allowed a mere 273 yards of total offense and 53 plays, converting just 3-of-11 on third-down efforts. Ronnie Paulo tallied a team-best 10 tackles for the Rebels, while B.J. Bell registered the lone sack for the home team. Not only is the offense for the Rebels generally a lost cause, outside of beating the two other teams in the MWC that have a combined record of just 3-18, but the defense is also one of the weakest in all of college football in several areas. When it comes to tackles behind the line of scrimmage, this is a group that has managed less than four per game, last in the MWC and 116th in the country this week.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
UNLV will try to win back-to-back contests for the first time in three seasons. The Rebels came up big in last weekends Homecoming victory against Wyoming that had dropped five straight and was coming off a loss to New Mexico. Air Force is playing their 12th straight game without rest and it showed in last week’s win-no cover home-closer over New Mexico. While Air Force is an impressive 10-1 ‘ITS’ (in the stats, keep a close eye on the line) the Vegas Rebels are a moneymaking 9-3 ATS as home dogs of 20 or more points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Air Force by 19; O/U 56
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Air Force -17.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Air Force -16.97
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--UNLV is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was UNLV 20.9, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 12-28 ATS (-18.7 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 30.7, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 10-26 ATS (-18.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 29.9, OPPONENT 22.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 22.7, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was AIR FORCE 31.0, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--UNLV is 12-26 against the 1rst half line (-16.6 Units) as an underdog of 6 to 11.5 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was UNLV 6.6, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 24-46 against the 1rst half line (-26.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 14.6, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--UNLV is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UNLV 9.2, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--UNLV is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was UNLV 15.9, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 (UNLV) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a home win.
(29-6 since 1992.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.6, Opponent 16.1 (Total first half points scored = 34.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (AIR FORCE) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, when playing on a Thursday.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.3
The average score in these games was: Team 20.9, Opponent 20.4 (Total points scored = 41.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (52-18).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points vs. the first half line (UNLV) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent.
(44-16 since 1992.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 8.6, Opponent 14.5 (Average first half point differential = -5.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/18
NBA, NFL & NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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*** UCLA @ WASHINGTON (-2, O/U 53.5) ***
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The main storyline surrounding this game is whether or not Washington QB Jake Locker (broken rib) will be under center as his Huskies host the UCLA Bruins in a ESPN Thursday night Pac 10 showdown. Despite Locker's questionable status, Washington is still a 2.5-point favorite at most of our recommended online sportsbooks.
With or without Locker, the Huskies are struggling right now. They've lost three straight games - by a combined 92 points - and are one-point away from a five game losing streak. In fact, two of UW's three wins this season have come by exactly one point. They have been a poor pointspread team as well, going just 3-6 at the betting window. In their last game, they did manage to pick up an ATS win, but that was largely due to the fact they were getting a generous 38 points from the oddsmakers against Oregon, who blew out the Locker-less Huskies 53-16.
Although they gave up 53 points in the loss, the Washington defense did its job - at least for the first quarter - where they held Oregon's top-ranked scoring offense scoreless. Redshirt freshman QB Keith Price wasn't too effective in Locker's stead, completing 14 of 28 passes for only 127 yards and one touchdown. He would obviously get the start here if Locker can't go.
There is a pretty unique betting trend in play this week for the Huskies and it is one that their backers will not want to hear. Since 1992, Washington is 0-7 against the spread when they are coming off back to back Pac 10 losses and allowed at least 31 points in at least both games. Also, they are just 14-30 ATS when facing teams with a losing record and at 4-5, UCLA qualifies. It's also interesting to note that the Bruins aren't too good against losing teams, covering only seven of their last 27 games.
UCLA ended its own three-game losing skid with a 17-14 upset win over Oregon State last Saturday as four-point underdogs. They needed a 51 yd FG from kicker Kai Forbath on the game's final play to pull out the SU win. The Bruins had previously been outscored 124-42 in their three previous games.
UCLA has typically dominated Washington head-to-head, winning 11 of the last 13 matchups. That includes a 24-23 win last season where they did not cover the 4.5-point spread, although they did overcome a 5-1 turnover deficit. The game featured five lead changes and the Bruins needed an INT on their own 20 yard line on UW's final drive to preserve the victory.
• PREGAME NOTES
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UPDATE: Washington HC Steve Sarkisian has announced that Locker has been cleared to play. This will be his final home game and the Huskies will be wearing special black uniforms for the first time in school history.
The Huskies have lost the last three games SU, ATS and ‘ITS’, they’re just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS when laying points this season! In fact, two of their three wins in 2010 have come by one point. UCLA has dominated this series since 1998, going 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS including 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS as a dog.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - UCLA by 1; O/U 48
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Washington -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Washington -0.44
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 26-51 ATS (-29.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 24.8, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 27.6, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--UCLA is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 22.1, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--UCLA is 7-20 ATS (-14.9 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 27.0, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--UCLA is 20-8 UNDER (+11.2 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 22.1, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCLA is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UCLA 18.1, OPPONENT 27.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--UCLA is 58-83 against the 1rst half line (-33.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 12.2, OPPONENT 14.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--UCLA is 7-21 against the 1rst half line (-16.1 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 11.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 14.3, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--UCLA is 22-5 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 11.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (WASHINGTON) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, when playing on a Thursday.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.3
The average score in these games was: Team 20.9, Opponent 20.4 (Total points scored = 41.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (52-18).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 (UCLA) - poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (>=440 YPG).
(24-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.0%, +15.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.3, Opponent 15 (Total first half points scored = 30.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (24-8).
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• • • • • 15-0 ATS CFB SYSTEMS PLAY! - THURSDAY • • • • •
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Stan's RED~HOT run on the gridiron continues Thursday night when he shares a College Football Super System Play directly from his powerful database that has gone 15-0 ATS since 1980. "Be sure to get it now, and win again with 'The Man Tonight!"
Once again as promised, Stan cashed with his NBA Super Situational Game of the day Wednesday! – (Chicago/San Antonio Under 103.5 1rst half) - Chicago put it to the homestanding Spurs in the first half, holding San Antonio to 37 points and holding a 10-point lead. Extending 'Stan The Man's winning streak on the hardwood to 11-3, (78.6%) with his last fourteen *5-Star selections!
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 100 - very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season, dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game.
25-4 since 1996 (86.2%, +20.6 units).
Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** AIR FORCE (-19.5, O/U 56) @ UNLV ***
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The Air Force Falcons close out their regular season on Thursday night as they pay a visit to the UNLV Rebels for a Mountain West Conference showdown at Sam Boyd Stadium. Since losing three straight games against powerful conference competition, the Falcons have turned the corner and are now riding a two-game win streak. Last weekend the Falcons posted a 48-23 win over New Mexico at home to help strengthen their case for making it the postseason again this year.
As for the Rebels, they finally managed to get back into the win column by putting up a 42-16 victory over the Wyoming Cowboys here at home in the desert. The win snapped a five-game slide for UNLV, but was still just the second triumph of the season for the team, following a 45-10 romp over New Mexico back in late September. The academy captured a 45-17 win in last year's matchup with UNLV and that leaves the Falcons with an 11-4 edge in the series as a result. Air Force has won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings with the Rebels.
Asher Clark ran for a pair of touchdowns and gained 95 yards on 19 carries for the Falcons as they overcame the loss of quarterback Tim Jefferson to record the lopsided win over the Lobos last weekend. Jefferson, who suffered a head injury that has him listed as questionable for the matchup with UNLV, hit on 2-of-3 passes before leaving. Stepping in was Connor Dietz who generated 67 yards and a TD through the air, not to mention a rushing score for a unit that gained 373 yards and posted six TDs in the victory. Not to knock Jefferson and his passing ability, but everyone knows this offense is predicated on how well the Falcons move the ball on the ground. At this stage the team is back to being first in the conference and second in the nation in rushing with 315.6 ypg, having gained more than 300 yards six times this season and scoring a total of 36 touchdowns on the ground. It’s nice to always have the option to put the ball in the air, but for the Falcons it isn't necessary.
The Falcons defense watched the Lobos march down the field on their first possession of the game on Saturday and score a touchdown, but considering UNM was handed a short field after a lost fumble it wasn't all the unit's fault. Air Force did bounce back, allowing just two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but by then the outcome had already been decided. Jordan Waiwaiole was again instrumental in the squad's success with eight tackles, 1.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage. Catching opponents behind the line of scrimmage has not been a strong suit for the Falcons this season and at the moment the group is ranked sixth in the conference and 97th nationally with just 4.8 TFLs per game. What's worse, the unit has recorded a mere 1.18 sacks per outing and that has the academy ranked seventh in the MWC and 110th in the nation entering play this week.
Even though quarterback Omar Clayton generally makes the headlines for the Rebels, it was freshman running back Tim Cornett who stole the show for UNLV as he scored one touchdown in every quarter of the team's win over Wyoming last week. Cornett totaled 70 yards and three TDs on the ground and one catch for 12 yards and a score to become the first player since 1994 to have four TDs for the Rebels. Clayton did have his share of the highlights though, as he converted 13-of-18 passes for 163 yards and three touchdowns, but it was Cornett who earned a share of MWC Offensive Player of the Week honors. As great as it was for Cornett to earn himself and the UNLV offense some respect, the fact remains that the so-called rushing attack for the Rebels is still last in the conference with just 107.1 ypg and overall the offense ranks 118th in the nation with a mere 269.9 ypg at the moment as well.
The Rebels allowed Wyoming quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels to run for 92 yards and a touchdown and also throw for another 108 yards, but aside from his efforts the Cowboys did little to threaten the inevitable victory by UNLV. Wyoming was allowed a mere 273 yards of total offense and 53 plays, converting just 3-of-11 on third-down efforts. Ronnie Paulo tallied a team-best 10 tackles for the Rebels, while B.J. Bell registered the lone sack for the home team. Not only is the offense for the Rebels generally a lost cause, outside of beating the two other teams in the MWC that have a combined record of just 3-18, but the defense is also one of the weakest in all of college football in several areas. When it comes to tackles behind the line of scrimmage, this is a group that has managed less than four per game, last in the MWC and 116th in the country this week.
• PREGAME NOTES
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UNLV will try to win back-to-back contests for the first time in three seasons. The Rebels came up big in last weekends Homecoming victory against Wyoming that had dropped five straight and was coming off a loss to New Mexico. Air Force is playing their 12th straight game without rest and it showed in last week’s win-no cover home-closer over New Mexico. While Air Force is an impressive 10-1 ‘ITS’ (in the stats, keep a close eye on the line) the Vegas Rebels are a moneymaking 9-3 ATS as home dogs of 20 or more points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Air Force by 19; O/U 56
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Air Force -17.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Air Force -16.97
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--UNLV is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was UNLV 20.9, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 12-28 ATS (-18.7 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 30.7, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 10-26 ATS (-18.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 29.9, OPPONENT 22.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 22.7, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was AIR FORCE 31.0, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--UNLV is 12-26 against the 1rst half line (-16.6 Units) as an underdog of 6 to 11.5 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was UNLV 6.6, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 24-46 against the 1rst half line (-26.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 14.6, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--UNLV is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UNLV 9.2, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--UNLV is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was UNLV 15.9, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 (UNLV) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a home win.
(29-6 since 1992.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.6, Opponent 16.1 (Total first half points scored = 34.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (AIR FORCE) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, when playing on a Thursday.
(29-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.3
The average score in these games was: Team 20.9, Opponent 20.4 (Total points scored = 41.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (52-18).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points vs. the first half line (UNLV) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent.
(44-16 since 1992.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 8.6, Opponent 14.5 (Average first half point differential = -5.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8).
STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/18 cont.
*** CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5, O/U 40) ***
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The Miami Dolphins came out of their most recent game awfully battered and bruised, but they'll have little time to lick their wounds. Expected to start their third quarterback in the span of three weeks, the Dolphins try to improve their present standing in the AFC when the banged-up club hosts the NFC North co-leading Chicago Bears this Thursday in a key interconference clash from Sun Life Stadium.
The quarterback position was also the primary focus of Miami's Week 9 matchup with Tennessee, with head coach Tony Sparano opting to start cerebral veteran Chad Pennington over struggling incumbent Chad Henne after the latter threw three interception in loss at Baltimore the previous Sunday. The brittle Pennington lasted only two plays, however, before suffering a season-ending dislocated shoulder, and Henne was forced to exit later on due to a knee injury that will likely keep him out of Thursday's tilt as well. Third-stringer Tyler Thigpen finished up the 29-17 win over the Titans and went 4-for-6 for 64 yards and a touchdown in a sharp relief effort.
The fourth-year pro is the favorite to be under center against the Bears, with newly-signed journeyman Patrick Ramsey in line to serve as the backup. Thigpen does have prior starting experience, having began 11 games with Kansas City in 2008. The 26-year-old threw for 2,608 yards and 18 touchdowns that season, though the Chiefs prevailed in just one of his 11 starts. Miami also sustained another significant injury in the Tennessee game, with standout left offensive tackle Jake Long reportedly tearing the labrum in his left shoulder. The 2009 All-Pro's status for this week's test figures to be in question up until kickoff.
Chicago will be entering in better shape, both health-wise and in the standings. The Bears are presently tied with Green Bay for first place in the NFC North with a 6-3 record and moved to 3-0 in divisional play after disposing of the turmoil-laden Minnesota Vikings last Sunday at Soldier Field, getting three touchdown passes out of quarterback Jay Cutler and another excellent performance on defense to deal their longtime rivals a 27-13 defeat. The Bears limited Minnesota's dysfunctional offense to 240 yards and intercepted Brett Favre three times in another impressive display from a unit that's yielded the second-fewest points and fourth-fewest yards in the league.
Chicago has also handled itself well on the road this season, having won three of its first four games as the visitor. Miami, on the other hand, had lost its initial three 2010 contests at Sun Life Stadium before last week's besting of the Titans. The Dolphins come in 5-4 overall and are one game off the pace in the race for the last of the AFC's two Wild Card berths. Miami sits in third place in the competitive AFC East, two games behind co-leaders New England and the New York Jets.
• SERIES HISTORY
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The Dolphins lead the all-time series with the Bears, 7-3, including a 31-13 road victory when the teams last met, in 2006. Chicago, which would eventually represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, was 7-0 heading into that matchup at Soldier Field. The Fins won the previous meeting between the clubs as well, a 27-9 win in South Florida in 2002. Chicago's last win over the Dolphins came in 1997, a 36-33 overtime road triumph.
The most memorable meeting between the teams took place during the 1985 regular season, when the Dolphins handed the Bears their only loss of the year in the form of a 38-24 Monday night victory at the Orange Bowl. Bears head coach Lovie Smith is 0-1 in his career against the Dolphins. Sparano will be meeting both Smith and Chicago for the first time as a head coach.
• WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL
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The intricate pass-heavy offense installed by first-year coordinator Mike Martz is finally starting to make some strides after a rough beginning to the season. Cutler (1908 passing yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) completed passes to nine different receivers in a 237-yard, three-touchdown outing against the Vikings, while a troublesome front line that's struggled in protection throughout the year surrendered just one sack. What was perhaps more startling, though, was Chicago's concerted effort to mix in the run with the pass last week and finding some success in doing so.
Running backs Matt Forte (470 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 6 total TD) and Chester Taylor (206 rushing yards, 1 TD, 14 receptions) combined for 102 yards on 32 carries as the Bears compiled a season-best 130 rushing yards, 35 more than the team's per-game average. The versatile Forte is also one of Cutler's top receiving targets, with second- year wideout Johnny Knox (32 receptions, 617 yards, 1 TD) the primary deep threat and tight end Greg Olsen (24 receptions, 4 TD) often the go-to guy within the red zone. Despite last week's improvement in that area, the Bears have still allowed 33 sacks on the year, tied for the most in the NFL.
Chicago's shaky offensive line will be tested by a formidable Miami pass rush headed up by playmaking outside linebacker Cameron Wake (32 tackles), who leads the AFC with 8 1/2 sacks, and promising rookie counterpart Koa Misi (21 tackles, 3.5 sacks). The duo helps support a secondary that's currently going through a bit of a transitional phase, with the Dolphins having surprisingly waived cornerback Jason Allen prior to the Tennessee game while signing oft- injured veteran Al Harris to serve as the nickel back behind young starters Vontae Davis (31 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD) and Sean Smith (30 tackles, 1 sack).
Allen had three of the team's rather low sum of six interceptions for the year. The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in run defense, having allowed an average of 110.2 yards per game on the ground (16th overall), but Titans speedster Chris Johnson put up 117 yards and a touchdown on only 17 attempts on a group led by inside linebacker Karlos Dansby (68 tackles, 1 sack) and strong safety Yeremiah Bell (68 tackles, 1.5 sacks), each of whom had eight tackles and a forced fumble in last week's win.
• WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL
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With Thigpen (79 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) having played sparingly over the past two years, it would be no surprise if Miami leans heavily on its talented backfield tandem of Ronnie Brown (444 rushing yards, 3 TD, 18 receptions) and still-dangerous veteran Ricky Williams (400 rushing yards, 8 receptions, 2 total TD) on Thursday. Despite both players' strong track records, the Dolphins haven't been overly effective running the football, having averaged a pedestrian 3.8 yards per attempt on the year. The athletic Thigpen could lend an added dimension due to his mobility in the pocket, but he's only a 54 percent career passer who'll probably be asked to be more of a game manager than a vertical presence this week.
If the Dolphins do decide to open up the offense, Thigpen will have some tantalizing options to work with. Top wide receiver Brandon Marshall (55 receptions, 652 yards, 1 TD) is a two-time Pro Bowler and matchup nightmare due to his 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame, with sophomore Brian Hartline (34 receptions, 1 TD), shifty slotman Davone Bess (48 receptions, 3 TD) and steady tight end Anthony Fasano (25 receptions, 3 TD) all capable pass-catchers as well. Hartline is coming off an outstanding day against the Titans in which he registered a career-high 98 yards on five grabs. The status of Long, the team's best pass protector, and center Joe Berger (questionable, knee), will also have an impact on how Miami decides to attack the Bears.
The Dolphins can't afford to be too run-reliant this week, as Chicago is one of the best in the business at stopping opponents' ground games. The Bears are permitting a scant 82.3 rushing yards per week (2nd overall) and held Vikings All-Pro Adrian Peterson to a modest 51 yards on 17 totes last Sunday, with accomplished linebackers Brian Urlacher (62 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Lance Briggs (45 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) once again leading the charge. Thigpen doesn't figure to have an easy time of it either, as Chicago tops the NFL in pass efficiency defense at the moment and has given up a league-low six touchdown throws as well, while coming up with 13 interceptions and an outstanding total of 24 takeaways.
Charles Tillman (49 tackles, 2 INT, 9 PD) and Tim Jennings (39 tackles, 1 INT) continue to be sound football as the starting corners, while young nickel back D.J. Moore (21 tackles, 6 PD) has developed into a reliable ballhawk who notched his team-leading fourth interception of the year last week. Long's availability will be crucial for the Dolphins, as the left tackle will have to take on one of the game's premier up-front disruptors in Bears defensive end Julius Peppers (24 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT).
• PREGAME NOTES
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Chicago returns to the scene of its Super Bowl loss for the first time on a short week after beating division rival Vikings; Bears are 3-1 on the road, with its only loss at the Giants, when Cutler was sacked nine times in the first half. The Bears check in with a 1-11 SU and 2-8-2 ATS log in its last 12 road games against winning teams, and Lovie Smith’s 1-7-1 ATS mark as a dog off a win in games against AFC competition. Chicago is 6-1 if they score more than 14 points; Miami is allowing average of 28 ppg in its four home games. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Chicago games, but 0-4 in Miami’s home games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 1; O/U 39
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -2.13
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 30-51 ATS (-26.3 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 21.6, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 9-25 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.4, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 8-23 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 15.8, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 36-13 UNDER (+21.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 17.4, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 28-9 UNDER (+16.0 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 16.1, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 25.4, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 29-56 against the 1rst half line (-32.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 8.6, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 25-42 against the 1rst half line (-21.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 9.0, OPPONENT 10.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 24-8 UNDER (+15.1 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 9.4, OPPONENT 8.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 78-45 UNDER (+28.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 7.2, OPPONENT 11.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (CHICAGO) - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more.
(22-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.7, Opponent 7.3 (Average first half point differential = +6.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (59-35).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (CHICAGO) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-13 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.1
The average score in these games was: Team 26.4, Opponent 21 (Average point differential = +5.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (60% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (62-30).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
(43-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.1
The average score in these games was: Team 24.3, Opponent 23.1 (Total points scored = 47.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (91-55).
__________________________________________
***** THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 18TH NBA INFORMATION *****
__________________________________________________ _______
(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Magic won six of last eight games, but are 1-4 vs spread in last five as a home favorite. Suns won three of their last four games.
-- Trailblazers are 3-1 as home favorite, but 0-3-1 vs spread in the game following their last four wins.
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Clippers lost their last seven games, but covered four of last five on the road. Pacers lost three of their last four home games.
-- Nuggets lost last three road games, by 2-31-6 points.
• BACK-TO-BACK
----------------------
-- Clippers are 0-3 if they played night before, losing by 9-2-12 points (2-1 vs spread in those games).
-- Suns are 1-2 if they played night before, losing by 8-10 points.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Six of last seven Indiana games stayed under the total. Seven of last eight Clipper games went over.
-- Over is 6-3 in last nine Phoenix games.
-- Three of last four Denver games went over the total.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--LA CLIPPERS @ INDIANA, 7:00 PM ET LA CLIPPERS: 11-1 Over Away off 5+ SU losses. INDIANA: 50-28 ATS at home vs. Pacific Division.
--PHOENIX @ ORLANDO, 8:00 PM ET TNT PHOENIX: 47-70 ATS playing their 2nd road game in 2 days. ORLANDO: 10-3 Over at home vs. Phoenix.
--DENVER @ PORTLAND, 10:30 PM ET TNT DENVER: 5-17 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. PORTLAND: 17-7 Under at home off ATS loss.
*** CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5, O/U 40) ***
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Miami Dolphins came out of their most recent game awfully battered and bruised, but they'll have little time to lick their wounds. Expected to start their third quarterback in the span of three weeks, the Dolphins try to improve their present standing in the AFC when the banged-up club hosts the NFC North co-leading Chicago Bears this Thursday in a key interconference clash from Sun Life Stadium.
The quarterback position was also the primary focus of Miami's Week 9 matchup with Tennessee, with head coach Tony Sparano opting to start cerebral veteran Chad Pennington over struggling incumbent Chad Henne after the latter threw three interception in loss at Baltimore the previous Sunday. The brittle Pennington lasted only two plays, however, before suffering a season-ending dislocated shoulder, and Henne was forced to exit later on due to a knee injury that will likely keep him out of Thursday's tilt as well. Third-stringer Tyler Thigpen finished up the 29-17 win over the Titans and went 4-for-6 for 64 yards and a touchdown in a sharp relief effort.
The fourth-year pro is the favorite to be under center against the Bears, with newly-signed journeyman Patrick Ramsey in line to serve as the backup. Thigpen does have prior starting experience, having began 11 games with Kansas City in 2008. The 26-year-old threw for 2,608 yards and 18 touchdowns that season, though the Chiefs prevailed in just one of his 11 starts. Miami also sustained another significant injury in the Tennessee game, with standout left offensive tackle Jake Long reportedly tearing the labrum in his left shoulder. The 2009 All-Pro's status for this week's test figures to be in question up until kickoff.
Chicago will be entering in better shape, both health-wise and in the standings. The Bears are presently tied with Green Bay for first place in the NFC North with a 6-3 record and moved to 3-0 in divisional play after disposing of the turmoil-laden Minnesota Vikings last Sunday at Soldier Field, getting three touchdown passes out of quarterback Jay Cutler and another excellent performance on defense to deal their longtime rivals a 27-13 defeat. The Bears limited Minnesota's dysfunctional offense to 240 yards and intercepted Brett Favre three times in another impressive display from a unit that's yielded the second-fewest points and fourth-fewest yards in the league.
Chicago has also handled itself well on the road this season, having won three of its first four games as the visitor. Miami, on the other hand, had lost its initial three 2010 contests at Sun Life Stadium before last week's besting of the Titans. The Dolphins come in 5-4 overall and are one game off the pace in the race for the last of the AFC's two Wild Card berths. Miami sits in third place in the competitive AFC East, two games behind co-leaders New England and the New York Jets.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
The Dolphins lead the all-time series with the Bears, 7-3, including a 31-13 road victory when the teams last met, in 2006. Chicago, which would eventually represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, was 7-0 heading into that matchup at Soldier Field. The Fins won the previous meeting between the clubs as well, a 27-9 win in South Florida in 2002. Chicago's last win over the Dolphins came in 1997, a 36-33 overtime road triumph.
The most memorable meeting between the teams took place during the 1985 regular season, when the Dolphins handed the Bears their only loss of the year in the form of a 38-24 Monday night victory at the Orange Bowl. Bears head coach Lovie Smith is 0-1 in his career against the Dolphins. Sparano will be meeting both Smith and Chicago for the first time as a head coach.
• WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL
--------------------------------------------
The intricate pass-heavy offense installed by first-year coordinator Mike Martz is finally starting to make some strides after a rough beginning to the season. Cutler (1908 passing yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) completed passes to nine different receivers in a 237-yard, three-touchdown outing against the Vikings, while a troublesome front line that's struggled in protection throughout the year surrendered just one sack. What was perhaps more startling, though, was Chicago's concerted effort to mix in the run with the pass last week and finding some success in doing so.
Running backs Matt Forte (470 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 6 total TD) and Chester Taylor (206 rushing yards, 1 TD, 14 receptions) combined for 102 yards on 32 carries as the Bears compiled a season-best 130 rushing yards, 35 more than the team's per-game average. The versatile Forte is also one of Cutler's top receiving targets, with second- year wideout Johnny Knox (32 receptions, 617 yards, 1 TD) the primary deep threat and tight end Greg Olsen (24 receptions, 4 TD) often the go-to guy within the red zone. Despite last week's improvement in that area, the Bears have still allowed 33 sacks on the year, tied for the most in the NFL.
Chicago's shaky offensive line will be tested by a formidable Miami pass rush headed up by playmaking outside linebacker Cameron Wake (32 tackles), who leads the AFC with 8 1/2 sacks, and promising rookie counterpart Koa Misi (21 tackles, 3.5 sacks). The duo helps support a secondary that's currently going through a bit of a transitional phase, with the Dolphins having surprisingly waived cornerback Jason Allen prior to the Tennessee game while signing oft- injured veteran Al Harris to serve as the nickel back behind young starters Vontae Davis (31 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD) and Sean Smith (30 tackles, 1 sack).
Allen had three of the team's rather low sum of six interceptions for the year. The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in run defense, having allowed an average of 110.2 yards per game on the ground (16th overall), but Titans speedster Chris Johnson put up 117 yards and a touchdown on only 17 attempts on a group led by inside linebacker Karlos Dansby (68 tackles, 1 sack) and strong safety Yeremiah Bell (68 tackles, 1.5 sacks), each of whom had eight tackles and a forced fumble in last week's win.
• WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL
-------------------------------------------------
With Thigpen (79 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) having played sparingly over the past two years, it would be no surprise if Miami leans heavily on its talented backfield tandem of Ronnie Brown (444 rushing yards, 3 TD, 18 receptions) and still-dangerous veteran Ricky Williams (400 rushing yards, 8 receptions, 2 total TD) on Thursday. Despite both players' strong track records, the Dolphins haven't been overly effective running the football, having averaged a pedestrian 3.8 yards per attempt on the year. The athletic Thigpen could lend an added dimension due to his mobility in the pocket, but he's only a 54 percent career passer who'll probably be asked to be more of a game manager than a vertical presence this week.
If the Dolphins do decide to open up the offense, Thigpen will have some tantalizing options to work with. Top wide receiver Brandon Marshall (55 receptions, 652 yards, 1 TD) is a two-time Pro Bowler and matchup nightmare due to his 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame, with sophomore Brian Hartline (34 receptions, 1 TD), shifty slotman Davone Bess (48 receptions, 3 TD) and steady tight end Anthony Fasano (25 receptions, 3 TD) all capable pass-catchers as well. Hartline is coming off an outstanding day against the Titans in which he registered a career-high 98 yards on five grabs. The status of Long, the team's best pass protector, and center Joe Berger (questionable, knee), will also have an impact on how Miami decides to attack the Bears.
The Dolphins can't afford to be too run-reliant this week, as Chicago is one of the best in the business at stopping opponents' ground games. The Bears are permitting a scant 82.3 rushing yards per week (2nd overall) and held Vikings All-Pro Adrian Peterson to a modest 51 yards on 17 totes last Sunday, with accomplished linebackers Brian Urlacher (62 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Lance Briggs (45 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) once again leading the charge. Thigpen doesn't figure to have an easy time of it either, as Chicago tops the NFL in pass efficiency defense at the moment and has given up a league-low six touchdown throws as well, while coming up with 13 interceptions and an outstanding total of 24 takeaways.
Charles Tillman (49 tackles, 2 INT, 9 PD) and Tim Jennings (39 tackles, 1 INT) continue to be sound football as the starting corners, while young nickel back D.J. Moore (21 tackles, 6 PD) has developed into a reliable ballhawk who notched his team-leading fourth interception of the year last week. Long's availability will be crucial for the Dolphins, as the left tackle will have to take on one of the game's premier up-front disruptors in Bears defensive end Julius Peppers (24 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT).
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
Chicago returns to the scene of its Super Bowl loss for the first time on a short week after beating division rival Vikings; Bears are 3-1 on the road, with its only loss at the Giants, when Cutler was sacked nine times in the first half. The Bears check in with a 1-11 SU and 2-8-2 ATS log in its last 12 road games against winning teams, and Lovie Smith’s 1-7-1 ATS mark as a dog off a win in games against AFC competition. Chicago is 6-1 if they score more than 14 points; Miami is allowing average of 28 ppg in its four home games. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Chicago games, but 0-4 in Miami’s home games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 1; O/U 39
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -2.13
_______________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 30-51 ATS (-26.3 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 21.6, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 9-25 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 17.4, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 8-23 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 15.8, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 36-13 UNDER (+21.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 17.4, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 28-9 UNDER (+16.0 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 16.1, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 25.4, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 29-56 against the 1rst half line (-32.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 8.6, OPPONENT 12.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 25-42 against the 1rst half line (-21.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 9.0, OPPONENT 10.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 24-8 UNDER (+15.1 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 9.4, OPPONENT 8.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 78-45 UNDER (+28.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 7.2, OPPONENT 11.2 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (CHICAGO) - off a home win against a division rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more.
(22-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.7, Opponent 7.3 (Average first half point differential = +6.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (59-35).
--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (CHICAGO) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-13 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.1
The average score in these games was: Team 26.4, Opponent 21 (Average point differential = +5.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (60% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (62-30).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
(43-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.1%, +26.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.1
The average score in these games was: Team 24.3, Opponent 23.1 (Total points scored = 47.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (51.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (91-55).
__________________________________________
***** THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 18TH NBA INFORMATION *****
__________________________________________________ _______
(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
_____________________________________
• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Magic won six of last eight games, but are 1-4 vs spread in last five as a home favorite. Suns won three of their last four games.
-- Trailblazers are 3-1 as home favorite, but 0-3-1 vs spread in the game following their last four wins.
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Clippers lost their last seven games, but covered four of last five on the road. Pacers lost three of their last four home games.
-- Nuggets lost last three road games, by 2-31-6 points.
• BACK-TO-BACK
----------------------
-- Clippers are 0-3 if they played night before, losing by 9-2-12 points (2-1 vs spread in those games).
-- Suns are 1-2 if they played night before, losing by 8-10 points.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Six of last seven Indiana games stayed under the total. Seven of last eight Clipper games went over.
-- Over is 6-3 in last nine Phoenix games.
-- Three of last four Denver games went over the total.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--LA CLIPPERS @ INDIANA, 7:00 PM ET LA CLIPPERS: 11-1 Over Away off 5+ SU losses. INDIANA: 50-28 ATS at home vs. Pacific Division.
--PHOENIX @ ORLANDO, 8:00 PM ET TNT PHOENIX: 47-70 ATS playing their 2nd road game in 2 days. ORLANDO: 10-3 Over at home vs. Phoenix.
--DENVER @ PORTLAND, 10:30 PM ET TNT DENVER: 5-17 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. PORTLAND: 17-7 Under at home off ATS loss.
Thursday NCAAB Play- GC
On Thursday the Bonus Play is Denver in College Hoops. Game 718 at 9:00 eastern. Denver looks for their 1st win after losing to some good teams. They come home knowing they are 27-4 of later on their home court. When playing off 3 or more ats losses they are 5-0. They have improved their shooting percentage in each game and now take on a Colorado St team that is just 5-22 on the road and has lost 32 of 40 times as an underdog. Look for Denver to get the win tonight. On Thursday we come off a 3-0 Wednesday sweep and have another solid 3 game card, The 5* NBA Play from a 35-4 angle with a 100% Subset, the Rare 96% NFL System that dates to 1980 and a 100% NCAAB Power Angle Play. Football overall is 29 games over .500 and NBA has bolted out to a 16-5 start. For the Bonus Play take Denver. GC
On Thursday the Bonus Play is Denver in College Hoops. Game 718 at 9:00 eastern. Denver looks for their 1st win after losing to some good teams. They come home knowing they are 27-4 of later on their home court. When playing off 3 or more ats losses they are 5-0. They have improved their shooting percentage in each game and now take on a Colorado St team that is just 5-22 on the road and has lost 32 of 40 times as an underdog. Look for Denver to get the win tonight. On Thursday we come off a 3-0 Wednesday sweep and have another solid 3 game card, The 5* NBA Play from a 35-4 angle with a 100% Subset, the Rare 96% NFL System that dates to 1980 and a 100% NCAAB Power Angle Play. Football overall is 29 games over .500 and NBA has bolted out to a 16-5 start. For the Bonus Play take Denver. GC
STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/18 cont.
*** LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ INDIANA (-8.5, O/U 200) ***
------------------------------------------------------------------------
While the Indiana Pacers have struggled at home this season, the Los Angeles Clippers can’t seem to win no matter where they play. The Pacers look to avoid a third straight home defeat while trying to extend the banged-up Clippers’ losing streak to eight games Thursday night. Indiana went 23-18 at Conseco Fieldhouse in 2009-10, but has dropped three of its first five there this season. With the expect ion of a 144-113 rout of Denver on Nov. 9, the Pacers have failed to score 100 points in their other four home contests.
A 16-point third quarter doomed Indiana in a 102-92 home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Danny Granger scored 22 points and Roy Hibbert added 18 with a career-high 15 rebounds, but the Pacers went 4 of 18 from 3-points range. “We just have to take this and go on,” guard Mike Dunleavy told the Pacers’ official website. A visit from the Clippers could help the Pacers turn things around.
Though Los Angeles won the teams’ last meeting, 88-72 at home Dec. 5, and taken two of three in Indiana, the Clippers have the NBA’s worst record and allowed 109.1 points per contest during a seven-game skid that followed a 107-92 win over Oklahoma City on Nov. 3. “The guys are battling, fighting,” coach first-year Clippers coach Vinny Del Negro said. Still without injured veterans Chris Kaman (sprained left ankle), Baron Davis (knee) and Randy Foye (strained hamstring), the Clippers were competitive during a 113-111 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday.
Eric Gordon scored 30 points and rookie Blake Griffin had 26 and 17 rebounds, but neither could prevent Michael Beasley from hitting the winning jumper with 2.3 seconds to play. “We’re right there,” Gordon said. “We’ve been in this situation seven, eight times and we just let them off the hook.” The Clippers have dropped 10 consecutive road games and 34 of 38 away from home.
“There’s nothing you can do but keep grinding it out, get ready for (Thursday),” Del Negro said. “We definitely need to get a win here, but if we keep battling and sharpen some things up we’ll have some opportunities.” The Clippers shot 48.3 percent against the Timberwolves, but committed 17 turnovers that led to 26 Minnesota points. Los Angeles’ 205 turnovers rank among the highest in the NBA. “If you look at it statistically we’re doing some good things, but the turnovers really hurt us,” Del Negro said.
Gordon has been one of the few Clippers to play consistently well, averaging 26.6 points and 5.9 assists in seven November games. However, the Indianapolis native who starred collegiately in his lone season at Indiana has totaled 21 points on 7-of-20 shooting and recorded two assists in two games against the Pacers in his hometown. The Pacers hope to have starting guard Darren Collison and key reserve Tyler Hansbrough back after ankle injuries kept both out of Tuesday’s contest. Collison is averaging 15.1 points and 4.1 assists.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Indiana by 9; O/U 200.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Indiana -7.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Indiana -7.23
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 101.0, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 23-6 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games after 2 straight games making 85% of their free throws or better since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 96.8, OPPONENT 90.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 94.6, OPPONENT 105.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 95.8, OPPONENT 108.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 35-16 UNDER (+17.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 98.4, OPPONENT 102.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 37-16 OVER (+19.4 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 96.0, OPPONENT 109.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 27-10 OVER (+15.9 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 95.9, OPPONENT 108.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 51-27 against the 1rst half line (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 54.8, OPPONENT 52.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 21-46 against the 1rst half line (-29.6 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 46.0, OPPONENT 52.9 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 40-21 OVER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 55.9, OPPONENT 55.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 34-18 OVER (+13.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 48.9, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (LA CLIPPERS) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, playing with 2 days rest.
(27-7 since 1996.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.3, Opponent 49.9 (Average first half point differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, playing with 2 days rest.
(42-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.4
The average score in these games was: Team 97.2, Opponent 102.8 (Total points scored = 200)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (65-40).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites (INDIANA) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (<=25%).
(44-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +25.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-34 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 100.2, Opponent 100.4 (Average point differential = -0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (46.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (105-89).
___________________________________________
NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
_____________________________________________
*** PHOENIX @ ORLANDO (-9, O/U 203) ***
-----------------------------------------------------
The Phoenix Suns have given the Orlando Magic headaches in recent years, but could be without their best player. Having won nine of the last 12 meetings, the Suns hope to continue their success against the Magic on Thursday night with Steve Nash’s status uncertain. Nash decided to play through his groin injury Wednesday night against Miami but struggled in a season-low 29 minutes.
“I kind of took a little risk,” said Nash, who may consider sitting out in Orlando. “It didn’t feel great, but I don’t think I did serious damage to it.” Nash scored 17 points in the 123-96 loss, but dished out just two assists for the first time since Dec. 29, 2008 - 141 games ago. Wednesday marked only the ninth time in 737 games where Nash played at least 29 minutes and failed to get more than two assists. “We didn’t play hard,” Nash added. “We didn’t play with enough aggressiveness or urgency and I think it showed.”
All five Phoenix starters scored in double figures, and the Suns will likely need another all-around effort if Nash is unable to go in this game. Phoenix has struggled on the glass, allowing opponents to average an NBA tying-worst 46.4 rebounds per game. That may not bode well against the Magic, who are the third-best rebounding team in the league. Jason Richardson leads the Suns with 20.3 points but has struggled in his last two games, totaling 22 points on 10 of 30 from the field. The Suns likely will need Richardson to regain his shooting touch against an Orlando team that averages 103.9 points at home.
Hedo Turkoglu who spent five years with the Magic, scored 15.5 points against his former team last season while with Toronto. Dwight Howard is averaging a career-high 21.2 points as Orlando, surprisingly, continues to do most of its scoring from inside. The Magic have struggled from long distance, connecting on 34.7 percent of their shots from beyond the arc to rank 20th in the league after setting an NBA record with 841 3-pointers last season - breaking the Suns’ mark of 837 in 2005-06.
“We brought a lot of guys on our team in for a lot of reasons, but one thing they all have in common is that they can shoot the ball,” Coach Stan Van Gundy said. “History tells you that they can shoot the ball and we can’t panic over (10) games. We haven’t shot it well, but these guys have a history of shooting it well and will shoot it well.”
Injuries have also contributed to the shooting woes, as J.J. Redick, who was held out of Monday’s 89-72 win over Memphis with back spasms, did not practice Wednesday and is uncertain to play. “We’re the only team in the league that prepares to play Phoenix by playing all big guys,” said Van Gundy. “They play small and we’re playing all big cause that’s all we got.”
Redick led the team by hitting 40.5 percent of his 3-pointers last season and is 7 for 11 from long distance against the Suns in his career. While Howard continues to excel on the offensive side, he’s been a defensive force at home, averaging 3.3 blocks and 1.1 steals in seven games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 5.5; O/U 202
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -3.74
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 61-40 ATS (+16.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.7, OPPONENT 95.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 70-49 ATS (+16.7 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 100.9, OPPONENT 95.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 110.3, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 104.6, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 27-9 UNDER (+17.3 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 103.8, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 101.5, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 32-16 against the 1rst half line (+14.3 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 52.8, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 25-40 against the 1rst half line (-19.0 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.7, OPPONENT 54.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 51-30 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.1, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 64-42 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 48.5, OPPONENT 47.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game.
(28-6 since 1996.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 210.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101, Opponent 99.8 (Total points scored = 200.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (ORLANDO) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.2, Opponent 45.3 (Average first half point differential = +6.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (40-23).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (52-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.6, Opponent 93.9 (Average point differential = +10.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (50.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (101-70).
___________________________________________
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*** DENVER @ PORTLAND (-3, O/U 203) ***
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The Portland Trail Blazers were able to win without Brandon Roy earlier in the week, but could have trouble containing the Denver Nuggets’ high-powered offense without their shut-down defender. Portland will be without its leading scorer again when it looks for a third straight home win Thursday night against the Nuggets, losers of three in a row on the road. Denver has lost four of its last six visits to Portland, managing only 93.7 points in those games. However, with Roy expected to be on the sidelines after undergoing an MRI on his chronically sore left knee Wednesday, things could be different this time around.
Roy, who is averaging 18.1 points per game and ranks second on the team in steals (1.5), was held out of the Trail Blazers’ 100-99 win in Memphis on Tuesday night. The three-time All Star was replaced in the starting lineup by Wesley Matthews who filled in quite nicely, scoring a career-high 30 points as Portland improved to 4-4 on the road. “We all had to step up,” Matthews, who went 5-of-10 from 3-point range, told the team’s official website. “I’m part of a team so I’m just fulfilling my duty as a teammate to step up like everyone else did tonight.
“This was a huge game especially going into these next two (games) that we have at home with Denver and Utah. Both of those teams are playing well. We needed this win, and we didn’t want to come off this road trip winless.” The Trail Blazers will likely need another big game out of Matthews if they hope to keep up with one of the league’s highest-scoring teams. LaMarcus Aldridge had 23 points against the Grizzlies - his second highest scoring output of the season. Aldridge has struggled against the Nuggets at home, though, averaging 10.9 points in eight games.
While Denver has recently had trouble scoring in Portland, its leading scorer has thrived. Carmelo Anthony, averaging 24.7 points in his eight-year career, has put up 30.0 in Portland since the 2006-07 season, including 73 in his last two visits. Anthony led Denver to a 120-118 win over visiting New York on Tuesday night, scoring 26 and pulling down nine rebounds, giving him 44 boards in his last three games.
“Melo has been great,” Nuggets coach George Karl said. “He’s been the most professional I’ve ever seen him, more serious than I’ve ever seen him, and the guy’s playing at an All-Star level.” Anthony continues to be hounded by the media about the possibility of leaving Denver after failing to sign a three-year, $65 million extension, but the Nuggets’ franchise player is solely focused on basketball for the time being. “I’m good. I sleep well at night” he said. “It isn’t about the money.”
Denver is among the league’s most potent offensive teams despite decreased production from Chauncey Billups. The Nuggets point guard is averaging 14.4 points after scoring 19.5 last season as he continues to struggle with his shot. Billups is connecting on 34.2 percent of his field-goal attempts, the second-lowest mark of his career. He could, however, bounce back in this game, as he is averaging 17.3 points on 17-of-34 shooting in his last three meetings with Portland.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Portland by 2; O/U 204
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Portland -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Portland -0.61
__________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--PORTLAND is 62-41 ATS (+16.8 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.9, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 99.2, OPPONENT 105.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.8, OPPONENT 105.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--PORTLAND is 77-44 UNDER (+28.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.4, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 37-18 UNDER (+17.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 99.8, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-14 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 102.4, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--PORTLAND is 16-29 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.1, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 60-35 against the 1rst half line (+21.5 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.1, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--PORTLAND is 34-16 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 51.6, OPPONENT 49.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-13 UNDER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 50.6, OPPONENT 52.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (PORTLAND) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher.
(46-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +26.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 49.4 (Total first half points scored = 99)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (73-46).
*** LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ INDIANA (-8.5, O/U 200) ***
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While the Indiana Pacers have struggled at home this season, the Los Angeles Clippers can’t seem to win no matter where they play. The Pacers look to avoid a third straight home defeat while trying to extend the banged-up Clippers’ losing streak to eight games Thursday night. Indiana went 23-18 at Conseco Fieldhouse in 2009-10, but has dropped three of its first five there this season. With the expect ion of a 144-113 rout of Denver on Nov. 9, the Pacers have failed to score 100 points in their other four home contests.
A 16-point third quarter doomed Indiana in a 102-92 home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Danny Granger scored 22 points and Roy Hibbert added 18 with a career-high 15 rebounds, but the Pacers went 4 of 18 from 3-points range. “We just have to take this and go on,” guard Mike Dunleavy told the Pacers’ official website. A visit from the Clippers could help the Pacers turn things around.
Though Los Angeles won the teams’ last meeting, 88-72 at home Dec. 5, and taken two of three in Indiana, the Clippers have the NBA’s worst record and allowed 109.1 points per contest during a seven-game skid that followed a 107-92 win over Oklahoma City on Nov. 3. “The guys are battling, fighting,” coach first-year Clippers coach Vinny Del Negro said. Still without injured veterans Chris Kaman (sprained left ankle), Baron Davis (knee) and Randy Foye (strained hamstring), the Clippers were competitive during a 113-111 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday.
Eric Gordon scored 30 points and rookie Blake Griffin had 26 and 17 rebounds, but neither could prevent Michael Beasley from hitting the winning jumper with 2.3 seconds to play. “We’re right there,” Gordon said. “We’ve been in this situation seven, eight times and we just let them off the hook.” The Clippers have dropped 10 consecutive road games and 34 of 38 away from home.
“There’s nothing you can do but keep grinding it out, get ready for (Thursday),” Del Negro said. “We definitely need to get a win here, but if we keep battling and sharpen some things up we’ll have some opportunities.” The Clippers shot 48.3 percent against the Timberwolves, but committed 17 turnovers that led to 26 Minnesota points. Los Angeles’ 205 turnovers rank among the highest in the NBA. “If you look at it statistically we’re doing some good things, but the turnovers really hurt us,” Del Negro said.
Gordon has been one of the few Clippers to play consistently well, averaging 26.6 points and 5.9 assists in seven November games. However, the Indianapolis native who starred collegiately in his lone season at Indiana has totaled 21 points on 7-of-20 shooting and recorded two assists in two games against the Pacers in his hometown. The Pacers hope to have starting guard Darren Collison and key reserve Tyler Hansbrough back after ankle injuries kept both out of Tuesday’s contest. Collison is averaging 15.1 points and 4.1 assists.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Indiana by 9; O/U 200.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Indiana -7.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Indiana -7.23
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 101.0, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 23-6 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games after 2 straight games making 85% of their free throws or better since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 96.8, OPPONENT 90.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 94.6, OPPONENT 105.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 95.8, OPPONENT 108.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 35-16 UNDER (+17.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 98.4, OPPONENT 102.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 37-16 OVER (+19.4 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 96.0, OPPONENT 109.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 27-10 OVER (+15.9 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 95.9, OPPONENT 108.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 51-27 against the 1rst half line (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 54.8, OPPONENT 52.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 21-46 against the 1rst half line (-29.6 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 46.0, OPPONENT 52.9 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 40-21 OVER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 55.9, OPPONENT 55.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 34-18 OVER (+13.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 48.9, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (LA CLIPPERS) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, playing with 2 days rest.
(27-7 since 1996.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.3, Opponent 49.9 (Average first half point differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, playing with 2 days rest.
(42-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 204.4
The average score in these games was: Team 97.2, Opponent 102.8 (Total points scored = 200)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 29 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (65-40).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites (INDIANA) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (<=25%).
(44-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +25.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (28-34 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 100.2, Opponent 100.4 (Average point differential = -0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (46.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (105-89).
___________________________________________
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_____________________________________________
*** PHOENIX @ ORLANDO (-9, O/U 203) ***
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The Phoenix Suns have given the Orlando Magic headaches in recent years, but could be without their best player. Having won nine of the last 12 meetings, the Suns hope to continue their success against the Magic on Thursday night with Steve Nash’s status uncertain. Nash decided to play through his groin injury Wednesday night against Miami but struggled in a season-low 29 minutes.
“I kind of took a little risk,” said Nash, who may consider sitting out in Orlando. “It didn’t feel great, but I don’t think I did serious damage to it.” Nash scored 17 points in the 123-96 loss, but dished out just two assists for the first time since Dec. 29, 2008 - 141 games ago. Wednesday marked only the ninth time in 737 games where Nash played at least 29 minutes and failed to get more than two assists. “We didn’t play hard,” Nash added. “We didn’t play with enough aggressiveness or urgency and I think it showed.”
All five Phoenix starters scored in double figures, and the Suns will likely need another all-around effort if Nash is unable to go in this game. Phoenix has struggled on the glass, allowing opponents to average an NBA tying-worst 46.4 rebounds per game. That may not bode well against the Magic, who are the third-best rebounding team in the league. Jason Richardson leads the Suns with 20.3 points but has struggled in his last two games, totaling 22 points on 10 of 30 from the field. The Suns likely will need Richardson to regain his shooting touch against an Orlando team that averages 103.9 points at home.
Hedo Turkoglu who spent five years with the Magic, scored 15.5 points against his former team last season while with Toronto. Dwight Howard is averaging a career-high 21.2 points as Orlando, surprisingly, continues to do most of its scoring from inside. The Magic have struggled from long distance, connecting on 34.7 percent of their shots from beyond the arc to rank 20th in the league after setting an NBA record with 841 3-pointers last season - breaking the Suns’ mark of 837 in 2005-06.
“We brought a lot of guys on our team in for a lot of reasons, but one thing they all have in common is that they can shoot the ball,” Coach Stan Van Gundy said. “History tells you that they can shoot the ball and we can’t panic over (10) games. We haven’t shot it well, but these guys have a history of shooting it well and will shoot it well.”
Injuries have also contributed to the shooting woes, as J.J. Redick, who was held out of Monday’s 89-72 win over Memphis with back spasms, did not practice Wednesday and is uncertain to play. “We’re the only team in the league that prepares to play Phoenix by playing all big guys,” said Van Gundy. “They play small and we’re playing all big cause that’s all we got.”
Redick led the team by hitting 40.5 percent of his 3-pointers last season and is 7 for 11 from long distance against the Suns in his career. While Howard continues to excel on the offensive side, he’s been a defensive force at home, averaging 3.3 blocks and 1.1 steals in seven games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 5.5; O/U 202
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -3.74
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 61-40 ATS (+16.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.7, OPPONENT 95.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 70-49 ATS (+16.7 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 100.9, OPPONENT 95.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 110.3, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 104.6, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 27-9 UNDER (+17.3 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 103.8, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 101.5, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 32-16 against the 1rst half line (+14.3 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 52.8, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 25-40 against the 1rst half line (-19.0 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.7, OPPONENT 54.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--ORLANDO is 51-30 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 49.1, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 64-42 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 48.5, OPPONENT 47.4 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game.
(28-6 since 1996.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 210.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101, Opponent 99.8 (Total points scored = 200.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 22 (61.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (ORLANDO) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.
(23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.2, Opponent 45.3 (Average first half point differential = +6.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (40-23).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (52-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.6, Opponent 93.9 (Average point differential = +10.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (50.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (101-70).
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*** DENVER @ PORTLAND (-3, O/U 203) ***
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The Portland Trail Blazers were able to win without Brandon Roy earlier in the week, but could have trouble containing the Denver Nuggets’ high-powered offense without their shut-down defender. Portland will be without its leading scorer again when it looks for a third straight home win Thursday night against the Nuggets, losers of three in a row on the road. Denver has lost four of its last six visits to Portland, managing only 93.7 points in those games. However, with Roy expected to be on the sidelines after undergoing an MRI on his chronically sore left knee Wednesday, things could be different this time around.
Roy, who is averaging 18.1 points per game and ranks second on the team in steals (1.5), was held out of the Trail Blazers’ 100-99 win in Memphis on Tuesday night. The three-time All Star was replaced in the starting lineup by Wesley Matthews who filled in quite nicely, scoring a career-high 30 points as Portland improved to 4-4 on the road. “We all had to step up,” Matthews, who went 5-of-10 from 3-point range, told the team’s official website. “I’m part of a team so I’m just fulfilling my duty as a teammate to step up like everyone else did tonight.
“This was a huge game especially going into these next two (games) that we have at home with Denver and Utah. Both of those teams are playing well. We needed this win, and we didn’t want to come off this road trip winless.” The Trail Blazers will likely need another big game out of Matthews if they hope to keep up with one of the league’s highest-scoring teams. LaMarcus Aldridge had 23 points against the Grizzlies - his second highest scoring output of the season. Aldridge has struggled against the Nuggets at home, though, averaging 10.9 points in eight games.
While Denver has recently had trouble scoring in Portland, its leading scorer has thrived. Carmelo Anthony, averaging 24.7 points in his eight-year career, has put up 30.0 in Portland since the 2006-07 season, including 73 in his last two visits. Anthony led Denver to a 120-118 win over visiting New York on Tuesday night, scoring 26 and pulling down nine rebounds, giving him 44 boards in his last three games.
“Melo has been great,” Nuggets coach George Karl said. “He’s been the most professional I’ve ever seen him, more serious than I’ve ever seen him, and the guy’s playing at an All-Star level.” Anthony continues to be hounded by the media about the possibility of leaving Denver after failing to sign a three-year, $65 million extension, but the Nuggets’ franchise player is solely focused on basketball for the time being. “I’m good. I sleep well at night” he said. “It isn’t about the money.”
Denver is among the league’s most potent offensive teams despite decreased production from Chauncey Billups. The Nuggets point guard is averaging 14.4 points after scoring 19.5 last season as he continues to struggle with his shot. Billups is connecting on 34.2 percent of his field-goal attempts, the second-lowest mark of his career. He could, however, bounce back in this game, as he is averaging 17.3 points on 17-of-34 shooting in his last three meetings with Portland.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Portland by 2; O/U 204
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Portland -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Portland -0.61
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PORTLAND is 62-41 ATS (+16.8 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.9, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 99.2, OPPONENT 105.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.8, OPPONENT 105.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PORTLAND is 77-44 UNDER (+28.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.4, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 37-18 UNDER (+17.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 99.8, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-14 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 102.4, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--PORTLAND is 16-29 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.1, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 60-35 against the 1rst half line (+21.5 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.1, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PORTLAND is 34-16 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 51.6, OPPONENT 49.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-13 UNDER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 50.6, OPPONENT 52.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (PORTLAND) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher.
(46-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +26.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 49.4 (Total first half points scored = 99)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (73-46).
