Prediction Machine
Props
Denver Quarterback
Seattle Running Backs
Denver Running Backs
Seattle Receivers/Tight Ends
Denver Receivers/Tight Ends
Kickers
Props
| Player | Stat | Line | Proj. | Pick | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | Pass Yds | 199.5 | 221.8 | OVER (57.2%) | |
| Russell Wilson | Comp. | 17.5 | 16.5 | UNDER (52.3%) | |
| Russell Wilson | Att. | 26.5 | 27.5 | OVER (52.4%) | |
| Russell Wilson | TDs Thrown | 1.5 (+135/-165) | 1.4 | OVER (45.9%) | |
| Russell Wilson | TDs Thrown | 0 (+275) | 1.4 | 0, (23.7%) | |
| Russell Wilson | TDs Thrown | 1 (+150) | 1.4 | 1, (34.2%) | |
| Russell Wilson | TDs Thrown | 2 (+225) | 1.4 | 2, (24.8%) | |
| Russell Wilson | TDs Thrown | 3 (+600) | 1.4 | 3, (12.1%) | |
| Russell Wilson | TDs Thrown | 4+ (+1500) | 1.4 | 4+, (5.2%) | |
| Russell Wilson | INT | 0.5 (-150/+120) | 0.6 | UNDER (47.2%) | |
| Russell Wilson | Rushes | 6.5 (EV/-130) | 5.7 | UNDER (64.1%) | |
| Russell Wilson | Rush Yards | 30.5 | 27.8 | UNDER (53.6%) | |
| Russell Wilson | Rushing TD | Yes (+250)/No (-325) | 0.1 | NO, 78.3% |
Denver Quarterback
| Player | Stat | Line | Proj. | Pick | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | Pass Yds | 290.5 | 241.3 | UNDER (63.9%) | |
| Peyton Manning | Comp. | 26.5 | 22.7 | UNDER (60.1%) | |
| Peyton Manning | Att. | 38.5 | 36.4 | UNDER (53.4%) | |
| Peyton Manning | TDs Thrown | 2.5 | 1.9 | UNDER (63.6%) | |
| Peyton Manning | TDs Thrown | 0 (+1000) | 1.9 | 0, (9.1%) | |
| Peyton Manning | TDs Thrown | 1 (+350) | 1.9 | 1, (28.7%) | |
| Peyton Manning | TDs Thrown | 2 (+200) | 1.9 | 2, (26.1%) | |
| Peyton Manning | TDs Thrown | 3 (+250) | 1.9 | 3, (18.0%) | |
| Peyton Manning | TDs Thrown | 4+ (+350) | 1.9 | 4+, (18.1%) | |
| Peyton Manning | INT | 0.5 (-180/+150) | 1.1 | OVER (66.7%) |
Seattle Running Backs
| Player | Stat | Line | Proj. | Pick | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | Rush Yds | 87.5 | 83.6 | UNDER (51.2%) | |
| Marshawn Lynch | Rushes | 21.5 | 22.9 | OVER (52.5%) | |
| Marshawn Lynch | Rec Yds | 15.5 | 18.6 | OVER (54.7%) | |
| Marshawn Lynch | Recs | 2 (110/-140) | 2.1 | OVER (37.3%) | |
| Marshawn Lynch | TDs | 0.5 (-165/+135) | 1.0 | OVER (60.6%) | |
| Robert Turbin | Rush Yds | 10.5 | 6.2 | UNDER (61.5%) |
Denver Running Backs
| Player | Stat | Line | Proj. | Pick | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | Rush Yds | 65.5 | 63.9 | UNDER (53.5%) | |
| Knowshon Moreno | Rushes | 15.5 (-110/-110) | 15.1 | OVER (50.5%) | |
| Knowshon Moreno | Rec Yds | 25.5 | 14.4 | UNDER (64.3%) | |
| Knowshon Moreno | Recs | 3 | 1.7 | UNDER (58.6%) | |
| Knowshon Moreno | TDs | 0.5 (-130/EV) | 0.5 | UNDER (55.3%) | |
| Montee Ball | Rush Yds | 32.5 (-110/-110) | 37.8 | OVER (59.3%) | |
| Montee Ball | Rushes | 8.5 | 8.7 | OVER (51.2%) | |
| Montee Ball | TDs | 0.5 (+250/-325) | 0.3 | UNDER (75.8%) |
Seattle Receivers/Tight Ends
| Player | Stat | Line | Proj. | Pick | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | Rec Yds | 45.5 | 51.1 | OVER (53.6%) | |
| Golden Tate | Recs | 4 (EV/-130) | 3.4 | OVER (44.8%) | |
| Golden Tate | TDs | 0.5 (+175/-215) | 0.3 | UNDER (67.7%) | |
| Doug Baldwin | Rec Yds | 40.5 | 48.7 | OVER (59.9%) | |
| Doug Baldwin | Recs | 3.5 (EV/-130) | 3.1 | UNDER (60.6%) | |
| Doug Baldwin | TDs | 0.5 (+215/-275) | 0.3 | OVER (29.5%) | |
| Percy Harvin | Rec Yds | 40.5 | 36.9 | UNDER (55.0%) | |
| Percy Harvin | Recs | 4 | 2.9 | UNDER (55.5%) | |
| Percy Harvin | TDs | 0.5 (+160/-200) | 0.2 | UNDER (68.3%) |
Denver Receivers/Tight Ends
| Player | Stat | Line | Proj. | Pick | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | Rec Yds | 75.5 | 62.9 | UNDER (62.9%) | |
| Demaryius Thomas | Recs | 5 (-130/EV) | 4.7 | UNDER (51.2%) | |
| Demaryius Thomas | TDs | 0.5 (-130/EV) | 0.5 | UNDER (53.6%) | |
| Wes Welker | Rec Yds | 57.5 | 42.8 | UNDER (59.4%) | |
| Wes Welker | Recs | 5.5 | 4.8 | UNDER (52.0%) | |
| Wes Welker | TDs | 0.5 (-130/EV) | 0.5 | UNDER (54.2%) | |
| Eric Decker | Rec Yds | 57.5 | 52 | UNDER (54.5%) | |
| Eric Decker | Recs | 4.5 (EV/-130) | 4.0 | OVER (49.7%) | |
| Eric Decker | TDs | 0.5 (+135/-165) | 0.4 | OVER (38.5%) | |
| Julius Thomas | Rec Yds | 55.5 | 47.9 | UNDER (56.9%) | |
| Julius Thomas | Recs | 5 (EV/-130) | 4.6 | OVER (48.5%) | |
| Julius Thomas | TDs | 0.5 (-130/EV) | 0.4 | UNDER (59.8%) |
Kickers
| Player | Stat | Line | Proj. | Pick | Calc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Hauschka | Points | 9 | 8.8 | UNDER (51.4%) | |
| Matt Prater | Points | 9 | 5.9 | UNDER (66.4%) |
NFLBettingPicks
Kevin
0.50 UNIT PROP = 1ST TOUCHDOWN - Wes Welker (Denver) (+950)
(Note: I'm risking 0.50 unit to win 4.75 units)
0.50 UNIT PROP = 1ST TOUCHDOWN - Luke Wilson (Seahawks) (+5000)
(Note: I'm risking 0.50 unit to win 25.00 units)
For these last two prop bets I've put half a unit on each - Wes Welker and Luke Wilson to score the game's first Touchdown. Wes Welker has been targeted 14 times in two playoff games by Manning and has caught 10 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. During the regular season he was targeted 110 times with 73 catches and 10 touchdowns. I like the match up for Welker in the red zone and I will take him at +950. The second is a long shot pick on Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. During the regular season this 5th round Canadian draft pick had 20 catches on 28 targets for 272 yards and a touchdown (average of 13.6 yards per catch). Seahawks coach had this to say about Wilson: "Luke has tremendous talent, he has speed and strength and catching ability and range and all of that". Wilson was targeted once against the 49ers, although it isn't recorded as an official target as a 15 yard penalty was called against the defender. Wilson's TD this year was a 39 yard TD catch, but I could also see them using him in the red zone. Of course at 50/1 it is a long shot, but I will put half a unit on the big athletic TE.
Kevin
0.50 UNIT PROP = 1ST TOUCHDOWN - Wes Welker (Denver) (+950)
(Note: I'm risking 0.50 unit to win 4.75 units)
0.50 UNIT PROP = 1ST TOUCHDOWN - Luke Wilson (Seahawks) (+5000)
(Note: I'm risking 0.50 unit to win 25.00 units)
For these last two prop bets I've put half a unit on each - Wes Welker and Luke Wilson to score the game's first Touchdown. Wes Welker has been targeted 14 times in two playoff games by Manning and has caught 10 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. During the regular season he was targeted 110 times with 73 catches and 10 touchdowns. I like the match up for Welker in the red zone and I will take him at +950. The second is a long shot pick on Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. During the regular season this 5th round Canadian draft pick had 20 catches on 28 targets for 272 yards and a touchdown (average of 13.6 yards per catch). Seahawks coach had this to say about Wilson: "Luke has tremendous talent, he has speed and strength and catching ability and range and all of that". Wilson was targeted once against the 49ers, although it isn't recorded as an official target as a 15 yard penalty was called against the defender. Wilson's TD this year was a 39 yard TD catch, but I could also see them using him in the red zone. Of course at 50/1 it is a long shot, but I will put half a unit on the big athletic TE.
Super Bowl seconds: A cheet sheet for Sunday's other games
Contrary to popular belief, the Super Bowl isn't the only sporting event taking place Sunday. Maybe you aren't an NFL fan or perhaps you simply want to mix in some wagers from some of Sunday's other sporting events.
Whatever the case, we've got you covered with a comprehensive betting cheat sheet from the rest of the sports world.
EPL: West Brom v Liverpool (+475, +333, -167)
New West Brom gaffer Pepe Mel is still trying to figure out exactly what his best XI actually is and still searches for his first win in charge of the club. The Baggies sit 17th in the table and could be destined for the relegation zone if they don't starting collecting three points with a bit more regularity. Nicolas "Le Sulk" Anelka was injured against Aston Villa and could miss out here.
The Reds are flying of late and are coming off a massive 4-0 win over Everton in the Merseyside Derby. Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge continue to fire on all cylinders with the former netting one and the latter bagging a pair versus Everton. If they want to keep up with the rest of the Premier League heavyweights, three points is imperative at the Hawthorns.
TRENDS:
* Liverpool has scored at least two goals in eight of their last 10 Premier League matches.
* Liverpool won the reverse fixture 4-1 at Anfield back in October.
* West Brom has just nine points in 12 away matches in the Premier League.
* Liverpool has played Over the 2.5 goal total in 12 of the last 13 games.
EPL: Arsenal v Crystal Palace (-450, +600, +1400)
With three points, the Gunners can reclaim the top spot in the league table with current leaders Manchester City hosting Chelsea Monday. Much was made about potential incoming transfers during the January window - especially at striker - but nothing was done to address the need. With the extremely tough schedule ahead, a full three points here is the only result Arsenal will be satisfied with.
Tony Pulis has brought new life to the promoted side, including coming off of back-to-back wins, but Palace's road woes are well documented. They've mustered just five goals away from home the season (worst in the league) and the Gunners have feasted on smaller clubs at home. It's a tall order, but the Eagles have a bit of momentum and will fight to stay out of the relegation zone.
TRENDS:
* Palace has lost nine of its last 11 away matches in the Premier League.
* Arsenal won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in October.
* Arsenal has eight wins and two draws in their last 10 matches at the Emirates.
* Palace has kept a clean sheet in back-to-back matches.
NBA: Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (-5, 191.5)
The Orlando Magic look to win back-to-back games for the first time since late December when they visit the struggling Boston Celtics on Sunday afternoon. The Magic recorded a 113-102 victory over Milwaukee on Friday and will try to end a 10-game losing streak on the road, where they are an NBA-worst 3-21.
Boston is only 3-19 since Dec. 16 and has not won in the six games All Star guard Rajon Rondo has played since his return from knee surgery. The Celtics could get second-leading scorer Avery Bradley back from an ankle injury as they attempt to snap out of a funk which saw them drop near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
TRENDS:
* Magic are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Boston.
* Magic are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Celtics last eight home games.
NHL: Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals (-130, 5.5)
After welcoming the returns of captain Henrik Zetterberg (back) and Howard (knee) on Friday, Detroit now turns its undivided attention to the long-term absence of Pavel Datsyuk. "I don't know," coach Mike Babcock told MLive.com when asked if the Russian superstar was close to returning. "I'm just like (the reporters). I just keep asking." Datsyuk has been sidelined since the Winter Classic on New Year's Day.
Joel Ward was credited with the game-tying goal with seven seconds left in regulation after deflecting captain Alex Ovechkin's blast. Washington is not without its own injury concerns as Brooks Laich exited Friday's tilt with tightness in his groin. Laich did not practice on Saturday and is questionable to face the Red Wings.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
* Red Wings are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win.
* Capitals are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 4-0 in Capitals last four home games.
NHL: Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens (-141, 5.5)
Eric O’Dell missed Friday’s game for the birth of his first child but will return to the lineup Sunday. Devin Setoguchi scored twice on Friday after recording one point in his previous 13 contests. Evander Kane has missed two games with a hand infection and is not expected to return before the Olympic break.
A flu bug is sweeping through Montreal’s locker room, infecting players like Louis Leblanc, Brandon Prust and Michael Bournival. David Desharnais finished January with six points in eight games playing on a line with Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher. Daniel Briere has three points in his last two games despite being limited to 16:20 total ice-time in that span.
TRENDS:
* Jets are 0-6 in the last six meetings.
* Jets are 7-2 in their last nine overall.
* Canadiens are 12-5 in their last 17 games playing on 0 days rest.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Canadiens last five home games.
NCAAB: South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats (-14.5)
The Bulls are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they shoot 26.2 percent as a group with only injured point guard Anthony Collins (38.9 percent) making more than a third of his attempts. Leading scorer Victor Rudd (14.7 points) has been particularly awful from behind the arc of late, knocking down just two of his 17 attempts over the last five games. If South Florida is going to have any shot to win this game, Heath needs more production out of Corey Allen Jr., who scored 18 points against SMU to bounce back from four straight poor outings, including a scoreless effort in the first matchup with the Bearcats.
Sean Kilpatrick, a 6-4 guard, has scored in double figures in 21 of the Bearcats' 22 games and has made multiple 3-pointers in each of the last five contests. Rubles is a stark contrast to Kilpatrick, not attempting a 3-pointer all season but rather doing his damage in the paint to the tune of 7.4 points and 6.4 boards. Jackson, who has battled through an ankle injury this week, hopes to duplicate his all-around effort against Louisville - 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.
TRENDS:
* Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.
* Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 39-13-1 in Bulls last 53 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 42-12 in Bearcats last 54 overall.
NCAAB: Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers (-4)
The Cavaliers don’t have a player averaging 12 points or better but sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon has surpassed his current team-leading scorer average (11.6) in the last seven games and has reached double figures in a season-high eight straight overall. Brogdon hasn’t just been scoring lately either, producing a season-best five steals while matching his highs of seven rebounds and six assists in Tuesday’s 15-point win against Notre Dame. Brogdon is also a combined 6-for-9 from 3-point range in the last two games.
Malcolm Brogdon will likely be matched against the Panthers’ best player, 6-5 small forward Lamar Patterson, unless Pittsburgh chooses to use a bigger body with 6-8 forward Akil Mitchell. Patterson has reached double figures in scoring in 19 consecutive games and is averaging a team-high 17.7 points, which ranks fourth in the conference. Talib Zanna had been a quality second option for the Panthers, reaching double figures in all eight conference games.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 19-9 in Cavaliers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 16-5 in Panthers last 21 overall.
NCAAB: Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+2)
The Wolverines have not lost since Dec. 14 - a two-point heartbreaker against No. 1 Arizona - but coach John Beilein still was not thrilled after Thursday's 75-66 win over Purdue. "The one thing I've learned first as a coach is that the only thing that can be really consistent is your defense, and it's not, and we're working on it," Beilein told reporters. "But if (the offensive consistency) keeps happening, I'll be happy as hell."
Hoosiers coach Tom Crean was not thrilled with freshman Noah Vonleh, who had as many turnovers (five) as shots attempted against Nebraska. “He had a tough night,” Crean told reporters after Thursday's 60-55 defeat. “He was out there, he worked hard. He wasn’t as emphatic and decisive with the ball as he needed to be. He got the ball, but it was one of those nights. He’s 18.” Vonleh is averaging 11.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on the season, although he has just 11 combined points over the last two games.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Indiana.
* Wolverines are 5-16-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
* Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
Contrary to popular belief, the Super Bowl isn't the only sporting event taking place Sunday. Maybe you aren't an NFL fan or perhaps you simply want to mix in some wagers from some of Sunday's other sporting events.
Whatever the case, we've got you covered with a comprehensive betting cheat sheet from the rest of the sports world.
EPL: West Brom v Liverpool (+475, +333, -167)
New West Brom gaffer Pepe Mel is still trying to figure out exactly what his best XI actually is and still searches for his first win in charge of the club. The Baggies sit 17th in the table and could be destined for the relegation zone if they don't starting collecting three points with a bit more regularity. Nicolas "Le Sulk" Anelka was injured against Aston Villa and could miss out here.
The Reds are flying of late and are coming off a massive 4-0 win over Everton in the Merseyside Derby. Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge continue to fire on all cylinders with the former netting one and the latter bagging a pair versus Everton. If they want to keep up with the rest of the Premier League heavyweights, three points is imperative at the Hawthorns.
TRENDS:
* Liverpool has scored at least two goals in eight of their last 10 Premier League matches.
* Liverpool won the reverse fixture 4-1 at Anfield back in October.
* West Brom has just nine points in 12 away matches in the Premier League.
* Liverpool has played Over the 2.5 goal total in 12 of the last 13 games.
EPL: Arsenal v Crystal Palace (-450, +600, +1400)
With three points, the Gunners can reclaim the top spot in the league table with current leaders Manchester City hosting Chelsea Monday. Much was made about potential incoming transfers during the January window - especially at striker - but nothing was done to address the need. With the extremely tough schedule ahead, a full three points here is the only result Arsenal will be satisfied with.
Tony Pulis has brought new life to the promoted side, including coming off of back-to-back wins, but Palace's road woes are well documented. They've mustered just five goals away from home the season (worst in the league) and the Gunners have feasted on smaller clubs at home. It's a tall order, but the Eagles have a bit of momentum and will fight to stay out of the relegation zone.
TRENDS:
* Palace has lost nine of its last 11 away matches in the Premier League.
* Arsenal won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in October.
* Arsenal has eight wins and two draws in their last 10 matches at the Emirates.
* Palace has kept a clean sheet in back-to-back matches.
NBA: Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (-5, 191.5)
The Orlando Magic look to win back-to-back games for the first time since late December when they visit the struggling Boston Celtics on Sunday afternoon. The Magic recorded a 113-102 victory over Milwaukee on Friday and will try to end a 10-game losing streak on the road, where they are an NBA-worst 3-21.
Boston is only 3-19 since Dec. 16 and has not won in the six games All Star guard Rajon Rondo has played since his return from knee surgery. The Celtics could get second-leading scorer Avery Bradley back from an ankle injury as they attempt to snap out of a funk which saw them drop near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
TRENDS:
* Magic are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Boston.
* Magic are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Celtics last eight home games.
NHL: Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals (-130, 5.5)
After welcoming the returns of captain Henrik Zetterberg (back) and Howard (knee) on Friday, Detroit now turns its undivided attention to the long-term absence of Pavel Datsyuk. "I don't know," coach Mike Babcock told MLive.com when asked if the Russian superstar was close to returning. "I'm just like (the reporters). I just keep asking." Datsyuk has been sidelined since the Winter Classic on New Year's Day.
Joel Ward was credited with the game-tying goal with seven seconds left in regulation after deflecting captain Alex Ovechkin's blast. Washington is not without its own injury concerns as Brooks Laich exited Friday's tilt with tightness in his groin. Laich did not practice on Saturday and is questionable to face the Red Wings.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
* Red Wings are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win.
* Capitals are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 4-0 in Capitals last four home games.
NHL: Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens (-141, 5.5)
Eric O’Dell missed Friday’s game for the birth of his first child but will return to the lineup Sunday. Devin Setoguchi scored twice on Friday after recording one point in his previous 13 contests. Evander Kane has missed two games with a hand infection and is not expected to return before the Olympic break.
A flu bug is sweeping through Montreal’s locker room, infecting players like Louis Leblanc, Brandon Prust and Michael Bournival. David Desharnais finished January with six points in eight games playing on a line with Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher. Daniel Briere has three points in his last two games despite being limited to 16:20 total ice-time in that span.
TRENDS:
* Jets are 0-6 in the last six meetings.
* Jets are 7-2 in their last nine overall.
* Canadiens are 12-5 in their last 17 games playing on 0 days rest.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Canadiens last five home games.
NCAAB: South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats (-14.5)
The Bulls are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they shoot 26.2 percent as a group with only injured point guard Anthony Collins (38.9 percent) making more than a third of his attempts. Leading scorer Victor Rudd (14.7 points) has been particularly awful from behind the arc of late, knocking down just two of his 17 attempts over the last five games. If South Florida is going to have any shot to win this game, Heath needs more production out of Corey Allen Jr., who scored 18 points against SMU to bounce back from four straight poor outings, including a scoreless effort in the first matchup with the Bearcats.
Sean Kilpatrick, a 6-4 guard, has scored in double figures in 21 of the Bearcats' 22 games and has made multiple 3-pointers in each of the last five contests. Rubles is a stark contrast to Kilpatrick, not attempting a 3-pointer all season but rather doing his damage in the paint to the tune of 7.4 points and 6.4 boards. Jackson, who has battled through an ankle injury this week, hopes to duplicate his all-around effort against Louisville - 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.
TRENDS:
* Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.
* Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 39-13-1 in Bulls last 53 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 42-12 in Bearcats last 54 overall.
NCAAB: Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers (-4)
The Cavaliers don’t have a player averaging 12 points or better but sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon has surpassed his current team-leading scorer average (11.6) in the last seven games and has reached double figures in a season-high eight straight overall. Brogdon hasn’t just been scoring lately either, producing a season-best five steals while matching his highs of seven rebounds and six assists in Tuesday’s 15-point win against Notre Dame. Brogdon is also a combined 6-for-9 from 3-point range in the last two games.
Malcolm Brogdon will likely be matched against the Panthers’ best player, 6-5 small forward Lamar Patterson, unless Pittsburgh chooses to use a bigger body with 6-8 forward Akil Mitchell. Patterson has reached double figures in scoring in 19 consecutive games and is averaging a team-high 17.7 points, which ranks fourth in the conference. Talib Zanna had been a quality second option for the Panthers, reaching double figures in all eight conference games.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Under is 19-9 in Cavaliers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 16-5 in Panthers last 21 overall.
NCAAB: Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+2)
The Wolverines have not lost since Dec. 14 - a two-point heartbreaker against No. 1 Arizona - but coach John Beilein still was not thrilled after Thursday's 75-66 win over Purdue. "The one thing I've learned first as a coach is that the only thing that can be really consistent is your defense, and it's not, and we're working on it," Beilein told reporters. "But if (the offensive consistency) keeps happening, I'll be happy as hell."
Hoosiers coach Tom Crean was not thrilled with freshman Noah Vonleh, who had as many turnovers (five) as shots attempted against Nebraska. “He had a tough night,” Crean told reporters after Thursday's 60-55 defeat. “He was out there, he worked hard. He wasn’t as emphatic and decisive with the ball as he needed to be. He got the ball, but it was one of those nights. He’s 18.” Vonleh is averaging 11.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on the season, although he has just 11 combined points over the last two games.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Indiana.
* Wolverines are 5-16-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
* Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
Bones Best Bet
teaser - 2 games - 7 points - ties reduce
SEAHAWKS +8 / SEAHAWKS BRONCOS - U55 -120 *5* BEST BET
Seattle did not lose by 8 points all season. Their defense is simply too dominant to get blown in any football game - even against the almighty Broncos. You will see a lot of the Seattle ground game tomorrow between Lynch, Wilson, Turbin, and maybe even some Harvin and you will see them able to move the chains in doing so. Manning won't be "stopped" but he will definitely be slowed by this Seahawks secondary and at the end of the day we will you be the see the Seattle Seahawks as the Superbowl Champions.
As we stated above, the Seahawks will pound the rock - moving the chains and keep the clock running. In their 2 playoff games this year we saw 38 and 40 total points scored. In Denver's two playoff games this year there was 41 and 42 total points scored - nowhere near the 55 we have with this teaser. Denver also using a lot more of Moreno than we saw earlier in the year, while they're still able to score, they're taking their time doing so. Expecting something like a 23-20 final in what will be a fantastic game.
SEAHAWKS @ BRONCOS - U48 -105 *2*
Prop Bets
CALDWELL RECEPTIONS O1.5 +175 *1*
CALDWELL YARDS O9.5 +115 *1*
GREEN RECEPTIONS O0.5 +155 *1*
TAMME RECEPTIONS O0.5 +125 *1*
COMBINED YARDAGE OF ALL MADE FIELD GOALS O110.5 -110 *1*
HAUSCHKA O8 POINTS +115 *1*
PRATER O8 POINTS -105 *1*
LYNCH O91.5 YARDS +100 *1*
BRONCOS HALFTIME LEAD / SEAHAWKS FULLTIME +860 *0.5*
A LEAD CHANGE IN 2ND HALF +145 *1*
LARGEST POINT LEAD IN GAME U13.5 +125 *1*
teaser - 2 games - 7 points - ties reduce
SEAHAWKS +8 / SEAHAWKS BRONCOS - U55 -120 *5* BEST BET
Seattle did not lose by 8 points all season. Their defense is simply too dominant to get blown in any football game - even against the almighty Broncos. You will see a lot of the Seattle ground game tomorrow between Lynch, Wilson, Turbin, and maybe even some Harvin and you will see them able to move the chains in doing so. Manning won't be "stopped" but he will definitely be slowed by this Seahawks secondary and at the end of the day we will you be the see the Seattle Seahawks as the Superbowl Champions.
As we stated above, the Seahawks will pound the rock - moving the chains and keep the clock running. In their 2 playoff games this year we saw 38 and 40 total points scored. In Denver's two playoff games this year there was 41 and 42 total points scored - nowhere near the 55 we have with this teaser. Denver also using a lot more of Moreno than we saw earlier in the year, while they're still able to score, they're taking their time doing so. Expecting something like a 23-20 final in what will be a fantastic game.
SEAHAWKS @ BRONCOS - U48 -105 *2*
Prop Bets
CALDWELL RECEPTIONS O1.5 +175 *1*
CALDWELL YARDS O9.5 +115 *1*
GREEN RECEPTIONS O0.5 +155 *1*
TAMME RECEPTIONS O0.5 +125 *1*
COMBINED YARDAGE OF ALL MADE FIELD GOALS O110.5 -110 *1*
HAUSCHKA O8 POINTS +115 *1*
PRATER O8 POINTS -105 *1*
LYNCH O91.5 YARDS +100 *1*
BRONCOS HALFTIME LEAD / SEAHAWKS FULLTIME +860 *0.5*
A LEAD CHANGE IN 2ND HALF +145 *1*
LARGEST POINT LEAD IN GAME U13.5 +125 *1*
Super Bowl XLVIII betting: Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2, 48)
Peyton Manning has commanded center stage from the moment he was taken with the top overall draft pick in 1998 and the spotlight will never be brighter than when he leads the Denver Broncos against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium.
Manning put together the finest season by a quarterback in NFL history - shattering records for touchdowns and yards - and a victory could settle the debate of whether he is the greatest quarterback of all time. Conversely, a loss by the Broncos will drop the league's only four-time (and soon to be five) MVP below .500 in the postseason and 1-2 in Super Bowls to bolster the argument by his detractors that he continually comes up short in the big game.
Who's No. 1? It is the quintessential matchup, pitting the Broncos' top-ranked offense against Seattle's league-best defense, marking only the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the NFL's highest-scoring team (Denver, 606 points) squared off against an opponent that surrendered the fewest points (Seattle, 231).
“We wouldn’t have it any other way,” bombastic Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said. “They’re an unbelievable record-setting offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s as tough as it gets. The No. 1 defense against the No. 1 offense.” It is also only the second time in 20 seasons that the No. 1 seeds in each conference reached the Super Bowl - the last coming when Manning's Indianapolis Colts lost to New Orleans in Super Bowl XLIV four years ago.
The first outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl - and the potential for playing in a blizzard - caused a lot of teeth-gnashing leading up to the game, but conditions are expected to be relatively benign with temperatures in the mid-30s and light winds. That's a huge plus for Manning and a Broncos' offense that features an unprecedented five players to have scored at least 10 touchdowns.
“We’ve spread the ball around so well all season, so it’s hard for teams to know who to key on,” said Manning, who was held to a season-low 150 yards passing in bitter cold and high winds at New England in late November. Seattle has built a legendary home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field but like Denver, has already played at MetLife this season. The Seahawks blanked the New York Giants 23-0 on Dec. 15 while the Broncos scored 31 second-half points in a 41-23 victory over the Giants on Sept. 15.
Looking for more betting info on Super Bowl XLVIII? Here are our 48 betting notes for betting Super Bowl XLVIII.
TV: 6:25 p.m. ET, Fox.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low 40s, above freezing with a 23 percent chance of rain turning to ice pellets in the fourth quarter. Winds are expected to blow NNW from corner to corner at MetLife Stadium at speeds of 4-6 mph.
LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at a pick'em and immediately drew action on the Broncos, pumping the spread as high as Denver -3.5. Seahawks money came back and bought the underdog, trimming this line down to -2. The total opened 47.5 and was bet down to 47 with the extended forecast calling for bad weather in East Rutherford. However, with the weather clearing up, action on the Over has drive the number as high as 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.3) - Broncos (-7.0) = Seahawks -0.3
KEY INJURIES: Seattle: Jordan Hill DT (Prob. - Groin), Percy Harvin WR (Prob. - Concussion), Doug Baldwin WR (Prob. - Hip), Brandon Browner (Out - Suspension). Denver: Mitch Unrein DT (Prob. - Knee), Knowshon Moreno (Prob. - Ribs), Tony Carter CB (Prob. - Arm), Matt Prater (Prob. Illness), Sione Fua (Ques. - Calf).
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "If we don't start seeing more Seahawks money we might, might have to get to Denver -3. Personally, I don't want that to happen but everyone is in love with the Broncos and with the early weather reports calling for a decent day in Jersey, getting to -3 isn't out of the question. At this point, it might be the only way to see some Seahawks money but it really will expose us to getting sided on the biggest game of the year. Going to -3 and then this game landing three, I'll be looking for work come Monday." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Looks like line will not hit key number of +3. Has already dropped from +2.5 to +2 at many sportsbooks. Surprisingly, the O/U line has come back down from 48.5 to 48, however, I think the public will push this higher on Sunday. If a +3 does show on Sunday with more public money on Denver, I believe it will quickly disappear with Seahawks money at +3. Line will likely close around +2 like it is now." - Steve Merril.
WHY BET SEATTLE (15-3 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Aside from allowing 14.4 points per game, Seattle surrendered the fewest total yards and passing yards while leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), including a league-best eight by Sherman. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most wins (27) in his first two seasons but he did not throw for more than one touchdown or 215 yards in his past six games.
One of the reasons is bullish running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gone over 100 yards four times in six postseason games and rushed for 249 yards and three TDs in the Seahawks' playoff wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. Wilson will also get back a big weapon in wideout Percy Harvin, who played in only one game during the regular season after recovering from hip surgery and suffered a concussion in the victory over New Orleans that caused him to miss the next contest.
WHY BET DENVER (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Add in Wes Welker (87 catches, 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas (65 catches, 12 TDs) along with 1,000-yard rusher Knowshon Moreno and it's not hard to see why Manning threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards - both NFL single-season records.
Denver's high-powered offense overshadowed a much-maligned defense that has made enormous strides and yielded an average of 14 points over the past four games since a 27-20 home loss to San Diego on Dec. 12. "We kind of made a pact after the San Diego loss," said Broncos coach John Fox, the sixth coach to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl. "Basically, everybody made a pact that we're going to be the best we can be these last five games. We've gone through four of them; we've got one remaining."
SUPER BOWL TRENDS:
* The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.
* This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense three of the four previous meetings. In addition, teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.
* The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.
* The big story in the world of NFL totals this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the Over.
CONSENSUS PICKS: 66 percent of bets on Broncos (-2), 51 percent on Over 48.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2, 48)
Peyton Manning has commanded center stage from the moment he was taken with the top overall draft pick in 1998 and the spotlight will never be brighter than when he leads the Denver Broncos against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium.
Manning put together the finest season by a quarterback in NFL history - shattering records for touchdowns and yards - and a victory could settle the debate of whether he is the greatest quarterback of all time. Conversely, a loss by the Broncos will drop the league's only four-time (and soon to be five) MVP below .500 in the postseason and 1-2 in Super Bowls to bolster the argument by his detractors that he continually comes up short in the big game.
Who's No. 1? It is the quintessential matchup, pitting the Broncos' top-ranked offense against Seattle's league-best defense, marking only the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the NFL's highest-scoring team (Denver, 606 points) squared off against an opponent that surrendered the fewest points (Seattle, 231).
“We wouldn’t have it any other way,” bombastic Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman said. “They’re an unbelievable record-setting offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s as tough as it gets. The No. 1 defense against the No. 1 offense.” It is also only the second time in 20 seasons that the No. 1 seeds in each conference reached the Super Bowl - the last coming when Manning's Indianapolis Colts lost to New Orleans in Super Bowl XLIV four years ago.
The first outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl - and the potential for playing in a blizzard - caused a lot of teeth-gnashing leading up to the game, but conditions are expected to be relatively benign with temperatures in the mid-30s and light winds. That's a huge plus for Manning and a Broncos' offense that features an unprecedented five players to have scored at least 10 touchdowns.
“We’ve spread the ball around so well all season, so it’s hard for teams to know who to key on,” said Manning, who was held to a season-low 150 yards passing in bitter cold and high winds at New England in late November. Seattle has built a legendary home-field advantage at CenturyLink Field but like Denver, has already played at MetLife this season. The Seahawks blanked the New York Giants 23-0 on Dec. 15 while the Broncos scored 31 second-half points in a 41-23 victory over the Giants on Sept. 15.
Looking for more betting info on Super Bowl XLVIII? Here are our 48 betting notes for betting Super Bowl XLVIII.
TV: 6:25 p.m. ET, Fox.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low 40s, above freezing with a 23 percent chance of rain turning to ice pellets in the fourth quarter. Winds are expected to blow NNW from corner to corner at MetLife Stadium at speeds of 4-6 mph.
LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at a pick'em and immediately drew action on the Broncos, pumping the spread as high as Denver -3.5. Seahawks money came back and bought the underdog, trimming this line down to -2. The total opened 47.5 and was bet down to 47 with the extended forecast calling for bad weather in East Rutherford. However, with the weather clearing up, action on the Over has drive the number as high as 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.3) - Broncos (-7.0) = Seahawks -0.3
KEY INJURIES: Seattle: Jordan Hill DT (Prob. - Groin), Percy Harvin WR (Prob. - Concussion), Doug Baldwin WR (Prob. - Hip), Brandon Browner (Out - Suspension). Denver: Mitch Unrein DT (Prob. - Knee), Knowshon Moreno (Prob. - Ribs), Tony Carter CB (Prob. - Arm), Matt Prater (Prob. Illness), Sione Fua (Ques. - Calf).
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "If we don't start seeing more Seahawks money we might, might have to get to Denver -3. Personally, I don't want that to happen but everyone is in love with the Broncos and with the early weather reports calling for a decent day in Jersey, getting to -3 isn't out of the question. At this point, it might be the only way to see some Seahawks money but it really will expose us to getting sided on the biggest game of the year. Going to -3 and then this game landing three, I'll be looking for work come Monday." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Looks like line will not hit key number of +3. Has already dropped from +2.5 to +2 at many sportsbooks. Surprisingly, the O/U line has come back down from 48.5 to 48, however, I think the public will push this higher on Sunday. If a +3 does show on Sunday with more public money on Denver, I believe it will quickly disappear with Seahawks money at +3. Line will likely close around +2 like it is now." - Steve Merril.
WHY BET SEATTLE (15-3 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Aside from allowing 14.4 points per game, Seattle surrendered the fewest total yards and passing yards while leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), including a league-best eight by Sherman. Quarterback Russell Wilson tied Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most wins (27) in his first two seasons but he did not throw for more than one touchdown or 215 yards in his past six games.
One of the reasons is bullish running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gone over 100 yards four times in six postseason games and rushed for 249 yards and three TDs in the Seahawks' playoff wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. Wilson will also get back a big weapon in wideout Percy Harvin, who played in only one game during the regular season after recovering from hip surgery and suffered a concussion in the victory over New Orleans that caused him to miss the next contest.
WHY BET DENVER (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 11-7 O/U): Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Add in Wes Welker (87 catches, 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas (65 catches, 12 TDs) along with 1,000-yard rusher Knowshon Moreno and it's not hard to see why Manning threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards - both NFL single-season records.
Denver's high-powered offense overshadowed a much-maligned defense that has made enormous strides and yielded an average of 14 points over the past four games since a 27-20 home loss to San Diego on Dec. 12. "We kind of made a pact after the San Diego loss," said Broncos coach John Fox, the sixth coach to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl. "Basically, everybody made a pact that we're going to be the best we can be these last five games. We've gone through four of them; we've got one remaining."
SUPER BOWL TRENDS:
* The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.
* This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense three of the four previous meetings. In addition, teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.
* The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.
* The big story in the world of NFL totals this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the Over.
CONSENSUS PICKS: 66 percent of bets on Broncos (-2), 51 percent on Over 48.
The Sports Network:
OVERALL ANALYSIS:
The knock on one of the greatest QBs of all-time is the fact that most believe the colder it gets, the tougher it is for Manning to throw the football, a laughable criticism because it's such an obvious dart to throw and could be hurled at any signal caller.
Manning, however, is 8-11 in his career -- including 0-4 in the postseason -- when the temperature is below 40 degrees at kickoff.
Some simply believe Wilson and the Seahawks are better equipped to handle the elements because Seattle is a team which generally doesn't rely on airing it out even in pristine conditions. Meanwhile, while vertically challenged, Wilson possesses very large hands, measured at 10 1/4 inches, an attribute scouts are very big on these days because in theory, a larger hand allows you to handle the football properly in any conditions.
It's indisputable that shaky conditions do favor the running game and defense over all else. And it's Seattle which possesses Lynch and the game's No. 1- rated defensive unit.
Three days out, however the weather forecast for North Jersey keeps getting better and better, calling for a high of 48 degrees and a low of 25 with little wind, certainly not South Beach-type weather but also a long way off from the worst-case scenario.
Translation?
Stamp that legacy -- Manning and the Broncos win.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Broncos 24, Seahawks 20
01/30 12:48:26 ET
OVERALL ANALYSIS:
The knock on one of the greatest QBs of all-time is the fact that most believe the colder it gets, the tougher it is for Manning to throw the football, a laughable criticism because it's such an obvious dart to throw and could be hurled at any signal caller.
Manning, however, is 8-11 in his career -- including 0-4 in the postseason -- when the temperature is below 40 degrees at kickoff.
Some simply believe Wilson and the Seahawks are better equipped to handle the elements because Seattle is a team which generally doesn't rely on airing it out even in pristine conditions. Meanwhile, while vertically challenged, Wilson possesses very large hands, measured at 10 1/4 inches, an attribute scouts are very big on these days because in theory, a larger hand allows you to handle the football properly in any conditions.
It's indisputable that shaky conditions do favor the running game and defense over all else. And it's Seattle which possesses Lynch and the game's No. 1- rated defensive unit.
Three days out, however the weather forecast for North Jersey keeps getting better and better, calling for a high of 48 degrees and a low of 25 with little wind, certainly not South Beach-type weather but also a long way off from the worst-case scenario.
Translation?
Stamp that legacy -- Manning and the Broncos win.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Broncos 24, Seahawks 20
01/30 12:48:26 ET
Mighty Quinn
Mighty missed with Iowa State (-8) on Saturday and likes the Seahawks on Sunday. The deficit is 220 sirignanos.
As a side note in MQ's column:
EA Sports video game company predicts some snow, a furious comeback and a game-winning kick in the first overtime contest in Super Bowl history. EA Sports has correctly predicted eight of the last previous 10 SB games: “Broncos 31, Seahawks 28, OT.”
Mighty missed with Iowa State (-8) on Saturday and likes the Seahawks on Sunday. The deficit is 220 sirignanos.
As a side note in MQ's column:
EA Sports video game company predicts some snow, a furious comeback and a game-winning kick in the first overtime contest in Super Bowl history. EA Sports has correctly predicted eight of the last previous 10 SB games: “Broncos 31, Seahawks 28, OT.”
Mr East "Super Bowl Props"
TOTAL COMBINED ACCEPTED PENALTIES? UNDER 12.5 -150 It is easy to see which way the odds makers want you to bet offering sucker odds on the over at +120, and deterrent odds on the over, and rightfully so, but just a bad line all together. While both of these teams were heavily penalized this season, that has been the case in prior Super Bowl's as well, without any change in how these games are called. Once you get into the playoffs the referees swallow the whistles as much as possible. Let's take a look at all NFL games over 20+ years and what we see is the following in all regular season games: 2928 times a game resulted in more than 12 penalties 2,928 times and less than 13 penalties 3185 times. That represents 47.9% of all games having 13 or more penalties, making the odds here not worth wagering on. Now let's take a look at all playoff games over the last 12 years and we see an entirely different picture. There were 13 or more total penalties in 41 games, and 12 or less in 101 games. That means just 28.9% of all games would go over the 12.5 posted here, and we have tremendous value on the under. Looking at the last 23 Super Bowls we see similar numbers with just 6 of the 23 having had 13 or more penalties 26.1% of all games, right in line with the entire playoff picture. I like the value on the under here.
WILL THERE BE A SCORELESS QUARTER IN THE GAME? NO -280 This prop based on all Super Bowl games to date show that 15 of the 47 Super Bowl games played have seen a scoreless quarter, or 31.9% of all games. That is right within a statistical acceptance range of the -280 line offered here. However, when you look back at the early years of the Super Bowl, scoring was at a premium. The first 11 Super Bowls played saw 7 games feature a scoreless quarter, and a lot of that is based on what scoring was like in that era. The defenses ruled, and in those first 11 Super Bowls the posted total was an average of 37. What has since happened, counting those 11 games, all Super Bowl totals have averaged 46. It is certainly probable that games with a posted total in the 30s would feature a higher rate of scoreless quarters by default. looking in the most recent era where NFL scoring has risen, if you take the last 16 years, and look at totals posted from 45-49 we see that 7 of the 8 have not featured a scoreless quarter. Denver has also only had 11 scoreless quarters in their 18 games, out of 72 possibilities, or just 15.3% of all quarters, ad Seattle just 15 out of their 72, or 20.8% of the time. Looking aat the Seattle defense we see 33 of 72 scoreless quarters and Denver with 22 of 72. Denver has had only 1 game all season where they were shutout in more than 1 quarter, and Seattle just 3, so for both to match up with a 0 in the same qurter is certainly less likely than the -280 odds offered here.
TOTAL COMBINED ACCEPTED PENALTIES? UNDER 12.5 -150 It is easy to see which way the odds makers want you to bet offering sucker odds on the over at +120, and deterrent odds on the over, and rightfully so, but just a bad line all together. While both of these teams were heavily penalized this season, that has been the case in prior Super Bowl's as well, without any change in how these games are called. Once you get into the playoffs the referees swallow the whistles as much as possible. Let's take a look at all NFL games over 20+ years and what we see is the following in all regular season games: 2928 times a game resulted in more than 12 penalties 2,928 times and less than 13 penalties 3185 times. That represents 47.9% of all games having 13 or more penalties, making the odds here not worth wagering on. Now let's take a look at all playoff games over the last 12 years and we see an entirely different picture. There were 13 or more total penalties in 41 games, and 12 or less in 101 games. That means just 28.9% of all games would go over the 12.5 posted here, and we have tremendous value on the under. Looking at the last 23 Super Bowls we see similar numbers with just 6 of the 23 having had 13 or more penalties 26.1% of all games, right in line with the entire playoff picture. I like the value on the under here.
WILL THERE BE A SCORELESS QUARTER IN THE GAME? NO -280 This prop based on all Super Bowl games to date show that 15 of the 47 Super Bowl games played have seen a scoreless quarter, or 31.9% of all games. That is right within a statistical acceptance range of the -280 line offered here. However, when you look back at the early years of the Super Bowl, scoring was at a premium. The first 11 Super Bowls played saw 7 games feature a scoreless quarter, and a lot of that is based on what scoring was like in that era. The defenses ruled, and in those first 11 Super Bowls the posted total was an average of 37. What has since happened, counting those 11 games, all Super Bowl totals have averaged 46. It is certainly probable that games with a posted total in the 30s would feature a higher rate of scoreless quarters by default. looking in the most recent era where NFL scoring has risen, if you take the last 16 years, and look at totals posted from 45-49 we see that 7 of the 8 have not featured a scoreless quarter. Denver has also only had 11 scoreless quarters in their 18 games, out of 72 possibilities, or just 15.3% of all quarters, ad Seattle just 15 out of their 72, or 20.8% of the time. Looking aat the Seattle defense we see 33 of 72 scoreless quarters and Denver with 22 of 72. Denver has had only 1 game all season where they were shutout in more than 1 quarter, and Seattle just 3, so for both to match up with a 0 in the same qurter is certainly less likely than the -280 odds offered here.
NHL
Hot teams
-- Winnipeg won seven of its last nine games.
Cold teams
-- Washington lost seven of its last nine games. Detroit was outscored 7-0 in losing its last three road games.
-- Montreal lost five of its last seven games.
Totals
-- Last five Detroit road games stayed under the total. Last three Washington games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Winnipeg games went over the total.
Series records
-- Red Wings lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Canadiens won their last six games with Winnipeg.
Hot teams
-- Winnipeg won seven of its last nine games.
Cold teams
-- Washington lost seven of its last nine games. Detroit was outscored 7-0 in losing its last three road games.
-- Montreal lost five of its last seven games.
Totals
-- Last five Detroit road games stayed under the total. Last three Washington games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Winnipeg games went over the total.
Series records
-- Red Wings lost three of last four games with Washington.
-- Canadiens won their last six games with Winnipeg.
NBA
Hot teams
-- None
Cold Teams
-- Boston lost seven of last eight games, are 9-14-1 vs spread at home. Magic lost five of last seven games, are 9-15 vs spread on road.
Series records
-- Celtics won ten of their last eleven games with Orlando.
Totals
-- 18 of 24 Orlando road games stayed under the total.
Back to backs
-- None
Hot teams
-- None
Cold Teams
-- Boston lost seven of last eight games, are 9-14-1 vs spread at home. Magic lost five of last seven games, are 9-15 vs spread on road.
Series records
-- Celtics won ten of their last eleven games with Orlando.
Totals
-- 18 of 24 Orlando road games stayed under the total.
Back to backs
-- None
Today's NBA Picks
Orlando at Boston
The Celtics look to snap a four-game losing streak against an Orlando team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games. Boston is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5). Here are all of today's picks.
Orlando at Boston
The Celtics look to snap a four-game losing streak against an Orlando team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games. Boston is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5). Here are all of today's picks.
| SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST |
| Game 801-802: Orlando at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 108.117; Boston 116.351 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 8; 186 Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5); Under |
