PREDICTION MACHINE
Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
101 6:25 PM SEA "Upset Watch" "Lock of the Week" @ DEN 2.5 2.2 60.0% $80
Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
101 6:25 PM SEA vs DEN 23.8 21.5 54.8%
Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
102 6:25 PM SEA vs DEN 47 45.3 Under 52.7% $3
Super Bowl XLVIII Pick: Seattle +2.5 over Denver (Covers 60%)
Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
101 6:25 PM SEA "Upset Watch" "Lock of the Week" @ DEN 2.5 2.2 60.0% $80
Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
101 6:25 PM SEA vs DEN 23.8 21.5 54.8%
Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
102 6:25 PM SEA vs DEN 47 45.3 Under 52.7% $3
Super Bowl XLVIII Pick: Seattle +2.5 over Denver (Covers 60%)
Freddy Wills
2014 Super Bowl XLVIII Top 7 Prop Bets to Wager
Denver Over 91.5 Rushing Yards -135 2.5* Play
Peyton Manning Longest Passing Completion - UNDER 37.5 Yards -110 (Risking 2 Units)
Monte Ball - Over 8.5 rushing attempts -135 1.5* play
Under 1.5 Total Interceptions +110 (Risking 1.5 Units)
Over 3.5 Field Goals +125 (Risk 1 Unit)
First Score of the game = Field Goal/Safety +120 (Risking 1 Unit)
Seahawks - UNDER 132.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Risking 1 Unit)
2014 Super Bowl XLVIII Top 7 Prop Bets to Wager
Denver Over 91.5 Rushing Yards -135 2.5* Play
Peyton Manning Longest Passing Completion - UNDER 37.5 Yards -110 (Risking 2 Units)
Monte Ball - Over 8.5 rushing attempts -135 1.5* play
Under 1.5 Total Interceptions +110 (Risking 1.5 Units)
Over 3.5 Field Goals +125 (Risk 1 Unit)
First Score of the game = Field Goal/Safety +120 (Risking 1 Unit)
Seahawks - UNDER 132.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Risking 1 Unit)
Super Bowl
Denver/Seattle were AFC West rivals up until 2001, when Seahawks moved to the NFC. Seattle’s first-ever playoff win was 31-7 over the Broncos in the Kingdome in 1983, John Elway’s rookie year. Teams have met only three times since Seattle switched conferences, with Denver winning two of three, last of which was 31-14 Bronco win at Mile High in 2010—that also means the teams meet again next season, in the Thursday night season opener, maybe?
None of that matters here; what matters is what the weather is expected to come up better Sunday night than its been all winter in New Jersey, which favors Denver’s passing game. Broncos scored 41 ppg in winning two of three games on artificial turf this season (at Giants-Cowboys-Patriots). Seattle plays its home games on carpet. Both teams beat the Giants in this stadium this season. If they gave an over/under figure to bet on for TV ratings, I’d take the over. Lot of people are interested in this game.
Denver’s coach/QB have been in Super Bowls before, Manning has obviously won one. Seattle doesn’t have one player who has been in a Super Bowl; they have to guard against being too hyped up for the game, which you read has been a problem in previous Super Bowls. Manning spreads ball out so well, it is difficult for great Seattle defense to focus on stopping 1-2 guys, like Crabtree/Boldin with the 49ers.
This is only second time in last 20 years both #1 seeds got to this point. Underdogs covered five of last six Super Bowls, won four of six SU.
Seattle’s offense has not been as good away from home; they’re a bully team, trying to run ball down your throat. If Denver can contain the run and force Wilson to make plays to win the game, doubtful he can do it. I think the Broncos will win the game, something like 31-16.
Denver/Seattle were AFC West rivals up until 2001, when Seahawks moved to the NFC. Seattle’s first-ever playoff win was 31-7 over the Broncos in the Kingdome in 1983, John Elway’s rookie year. Teams have met only three times since Seattle switched conferences, with Denver winning two of three, last of which was 31-14 Bronco win at Mile High in 2010—that also means the teams meet again next season, in the Thursday night season opener, maybe?
None of that matters here; what matters is what the weather is expected to come up better Sunday night than its been all winter in New Jersey, which favors Denver’s passing game. Broncos scored 41 ppg in winning two of three games on artificial turf this season (at Giants-Cowboys-Patriots). Seattle plays its home games on carpet. Both teams beat the Giants in this stadium this season. If they gave an over/under figure to bet on for TV ratings, I’d take the over. Lot of people are interested in this game.
Denver’s coach/QB have been in Super Bowls before, Manning has obviously won one. Seattle doesn’t have one player who has been in a Super Bowl; they have to guard against being too hyped up for the game, which you read has been a problem in previous Super Bowls. Manning spreads ball out so well, it is difficult for great Seattle defense to focus on stopping 1-2 guys, like Crabtree/Boldin with the 49ers.
This is only second time in last 20 years both #1 seeds got to this point. Underdogs covered five of last six Super Bowls, won four of six SU.
Seattle’s offense has not been as good away from home; they’re a bully team, trying to run ball down your throat. If Denver can contain the run and force Wilson to make plays to win the game, doubtful he can do it. I think the Broncos will win the game, something like 31-16.
Sean Higgs
5* Best Bet
Seattle Seahawks +3.0/-115
5* Best Bet
Under 47 / -105
Analysis: Taking SEATTLE and the UNDER here. I'll be honest. Many of you had my plays in the Championship round and know that I had Denver and SF to play here at MetLife. Now, I will take that SF loss and roll the dice here on Seattle. Not because I thought SF was playing the best overall football and then since Seattle won, they are the best team. This is based on what I have seen of Denver. And the simple fact is this. When they have had to play physical, bruising teams that like to run, they have either come on with a loss, or on the short side of covering the number. We will start with Indy. They lost on the road to a team that was off to a very good start and had a nice season. Indy somehow managed over 100 yards on the ground with a patch-work run game. After their bye week, a couple tough division games vs SD and KC. They lost at NE when they should have won. Again they face SD and KC, losing at home to the Chargers. In the playoffs they faced SD and NE again and came out on top. But I am not impressed. The Broncos defense is playing very well. I am not going to take that away from them in the least bit. My problem lies with will they be able to contain bruising RB Lynch. I don't think so. This game is going to be won by the Seattle defense vs the Denver WRs. They have the size and strength to slow down this attack. I am not high on Wilson. I have said that before. Seattle is playing with house money. No pressure. All the pressure is on Manning. Seattle can swing here and miss. Denver can't miss at all. They take a shot and turn the ball over and turns into points, I can see them tightening up. This Seattle defense is very good. As great as Manning is, this defense is chomping at the bit to show just how great they are. Total wise, I really like the Under. Forget about the weather. Did you see the Lions and Eagles put up 54 in a near blizzard? I know Lynch won't have a problem in that, nor would I bet against Moreno. But I think these defenses are much better than Det/Phi. That being said, I don't see any wetness playing into the equation. It will be cold, and the QBs will be uncomfortable. The defenses love this kind of weather. We are going 2-0 today. If I don't cash the UNDER and SEATTLE, you can get the rest of February absolutely free by emailing me at seanhiggs2013@g mail 5* BEST BET PARLAY -- SEATTLE and UNDER
5* Best Bet
Seattle Seahawks +3.0/-115
5* Best Bet
Under 47 / -105
Analysis: Taking SEATTLE and the UNDER here. I'll be honest. Many of you had my plays in the Championship round and know that I had Denver and SF to play here at MetLife. Now, I will take that SF loss and roll the dice here on Seattle. Not because I thought SF was playing the best overall football and then since Seattle won, they are the best team. This is based on what I have seen of Denver. And the simple fact is this. When they have had to play physical, bruising teams that like to run, they have either come on with a loss, or on the short side of covering the number. We will start with Indy. They lost on the road to a team that was off to a very good start and had a nice season. Indy somehow managed over 100 yards on the ground with a patch-work run game. After their bye week, a couple tough division games vs SD and KC. They lost at NE when they should have won. Again they face SD and KC, losing at home to the Chargers. In the playoffs they faced SD and NE again and came out on top. But I am not impressed. The Broncos defense is playing very well. I am not going to take that away from them in the least bit. My problem lies with will they be able to contain bruising RB Lynch. I don't think so. This game is going to be won by the Seattle defense vs the Denver WRs. They have the size and strength to slow down this attack. I am not high on Wilson. I have said that before. Seattle is playing with house money. No pressure. All the pressure is on Manning. Seattle can swing here and miss. Denver can't miss at all. They take a shot and turn the ball over and turns into points, I can see them tightening up. This Seattle defense is very good. As great as Manning is, this defense is chomping at the bit to show just how great they are. Total wise, I really like the Under. Forget about the weather. Did you see the Lions and Eagles put up 54 in a near blizzard? I know Lynch won't have a problem in that, nor would I bet against Moreno. But I think these defenses are much better than Det/Phi. That being said, I don't see any wetness playing into the equation. It will be cold, and the QBs will be uncomfortable. The defenses love this kind of weather. We are going 2-0 today. If I don't cash the UNDER and SEATTLE, you can get the rest of February absolutely free by emailing me at seanhiggs2013@g mail 5* BEST BET PARLAY -- SEATTLE and UNDER
Inside Angles - Superbowl Props
Team to have more first downs in the game - Seattle +2½ (+135): As you will see, we opted to go with positive odds for all of our prop selections beginning with this one. This comes down to the style of play that each team enjoys, as the Broncos are more of a quick strike team while the Seahawks are more methodical with a ball-control offense keyed by the running of Marshawn Lynch and the game management of Russell Wilson, who does not make many mistakes. We actually feel that underdog Seattle will do a better job of running its offense the way it wants here, as we do not expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to have has easy a time against the top ranked defense in football as they did vs. typical AFC defenses. That does not necessarily mean that the Seahawks will emerge victorious, but we do think they will win the Time of Possession battle, which would be a boon to this prop.
First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135): No matter how experienced you are, there are always some nerves early in the Super Bowl that can lead to some sloppy play until the teams settle down. Also, as mentioned, the Broncos may not have as easy a time finding the end zone early on vs. the best defense they have seen all year, and they may settle for a field goal the first time they are faced with a fourth down decision just to get some points on the board. And if the Seahawks are the first team to score, it is even more likely to be a field goal as Wilson is more apt to throw the ball away in the red zone if nothing is open. Both teams have solid kickers in Matt Prater of the Broncos and Steven Hauschka.
Will there be one scoreless quarter - Yes (+240): This play, besides the great odds being offered, is based more on Seattle being able to do what it wants. We think that the Seahawks will be successful in slowing down Manning, who again has not faced a defense nearly as good as Seattle's all season, and his targets for at least one full quarter and we also trust the Seattle offense to take time off the clock. Of course, this prop would also require the Seahawks to bog down around midfield before getting into field goal range, but our feeling here is that the +240 odds make this risk worthwhile.
Montee Ball pass receptions - 'under' 1½ (+120): Ball had a total of 20 receptions in 16 regular season games, and after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, the only reason he caught three passes in the AFC Championship Game was because the Broncos had a big enough lead on the Patriots that they took the opportunity to give Knowshon Moreno and his ailing ribs that have bothered him since he rushed for 224 yards at New England back in Week 12 some rest. We do not anticipate a blowout here and remember that Ball is still a fumble prone rookie, so do expect to see him on the field as much here with Moreno having had two full weeks off to recover since playing basically one half last game.
Peyton Manning throws an interception before throwing a touchdown (+200): Did we mention that the Seahawks are the best defense that Manning has seen all season? And the biggest strength of the defense is the secondary, led by one of the best cover corners in the game in Richard Sherman. And if you do not believe that Sherman is one of the league's best cornerbacks, you can just ask him! Yes, Manning had 55 touchdown passes vs. 10 interceptions during the year, but as the adage goes, "Good defense stops good offense", so do not expect Peyton to solve the Seattle defense right away, possibly frustrating him into forcing a pass or two.
Super Bowl XLVIII MVP - Richard Sherman (+2000): It seems almost a given that Manning will win the MVP if the Broncos win even if he does not really deserve it as this may be his last chance as the big prize. But there is practically zero value at taking Manning at a shade over even money at +110, so why not take a shot at these 20/1 odds on the best Seattle defender, as if the Seahawks win, the victory is more likely to be keyed by their great defense. Do not surprised if that includes a Sherman interception, and these odds will look mighty good if he could run one back for a Pick Six.
Team to have more first downs in the game - Seattle +2½ (+135): As you will see, we opted to go with positive odds for all of our prop selections beginning with this one. This comes down to the style of play that each team enjoys, as the Broncos are more of a quick strike team while the Seahawks are more methodical with a ball-control offense keyed by the running of Marshawn Lynch and the game management of Russell Wilson, who does not make many mistakes. We actually feel that underdog Seattle will do a better job of running its offense the way it wants here, as we do not expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to have has easy a time against the top ranked defense in football as they did vs. typical AFC defenses. That does not necessarily mean that the Seahawks will emerge victorious, but we do think they will win the Time of Possession battle, which would be a boon to this prop.
First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135): No matter how experienced you are, there are always some nerves early in the Super Bowl that can lead to some sloppy play until the teams settle down. Also, as mentioned, the Broncos may not have as easy a time finding the end zone early on vs. the best defense they have seen all year, and they may settle for a field goal the first time they are faced with a fourth down decision just to get some points on the board. And if the Seahawks are the first team to score, it is even more likely to be a field goal as Wilson is more apt to throw the ball away in the red zone if nothing is open. Both teams have solid kickers in Matt Prater of the Broncos and Steven Hauschka.
Will there be one scoreless quarter - Yes (+240): This play, besides the great odds being offered, is based more on Seattle being able to do what it wants. We think that the Seahawks will be successful in slowing down Manning, who again has not faced a defense nearly as good as Seattle's all season, and his targets for at least one full quarter and we also trust the Seattle offense to take time off the clock. Of course, this prop would also require the Seahawks to bog down around midfield before getting into field goal range, but our feeling here is that the +240 odds make this risk worthwhile.
Montee Ball pass receptions - 'under' 1½ (+120): Ball had a total of 20 receptions in 16 regular season games, and after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, the only reason he caught three passes in the AFC Championship Game was because the Broncos had a big enough lead on the Patriots that they took the opportunity to give Knowshon Moreno and his ailing ribs that have bothered him since he rushed for 224 yards at New England back in Week 12 some rest. We do not anticipate a blowout here and remember that Ball is still a fumble prone rookie, so do expect to see him on the field as much here with Moreno having had two full weeks off to recover since playing basically one half last game.
Peyton Manning throws an interception before throwing a touchdown (+200): Did we mention that the Seahawks are the best defense that Manning has seen all season? And the biggest strength of the defense is the secondary, led by one of the best cover corners in the game in Richard Sherman. And if you do not believe that Sherman is one of the league's best cornerbacks, you can just ask him! Yes, Manning had 55 touchdown passes vs. 10 interceptions during the year, but as the adage goes, "Good defense stops good offense", so do not expect Peyton to solve the Seattle defense right away, possibly frustrating him into forcing a pass or two.
Super Bowl XLVIII MVP - Richard Sherman (+2000): It seems almost a given that Manning will win the MVP if the Broncos win even if he does not really deserve it as this may be his last chance as the big prize. But there is practically zero value at taking Manning at a shade over even money at +110, so why not take a shot at these 20/1 odds on the best Seattle defender, as if the Seahawks win, the victory is more likely to be keyed by their great defense. Do not surprised if that includes a Sherman interception, and these odds will look mighty good if he could run one back for a Pick Six.
EM Sports SB pick
Seattle, from web site emsportspix pretty good write-up
I thought I'd post my take on this Super Bowl. I wrote my analysis as an email to my brother, for the most part I didn't change a thing, just copied it below. Enjoy and good luck!
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Truth be told, I am sort of rooting for Peyton, he's a great player, not a jerk, and frankly in my opinion he deserves more rings than Eli, but that may open up whole other can of worms.... HOWEVER, as I mentioned before, the Vegas "gods" typically don't care about who deserves anything, or "needs it for legacy" stuff -- if anything they work that subjective opinion stuff into the line, meaning the line typically negates all that public sentiment on one side of things. And here it's clearly all about Peyton.
Must say much of the analysis in your email to me falls under the Peyton-trap I've been writing about.... We all know he has a good offense to help him execute and win, and we also know this game means alot to him, to get monkey off back, to get ring vs. Eli, his legacy -- all that stuff. But that can be said about any QB in the SB, they all want to win it, badly! So Peyton really, really, really wants to win it?? As in Spinal Tap, he's turned up to 11 (with 10 highest)?? It gets silly.... And the fact is for better or worse, he has come up short in big games in the past, a fact... tomorrow may be different, but facts are facts.... (granted, this Denver team different than past Indy versions, but wasn't like those Colts teams sucked....)
I still think the line is overly skewed towards Denver. Don't forget, this game actually opened Seattle -1, favored by Vegas, and Vegas ain't dumb. The line quickly moved to Denver, in large part due to "dumb" public money playing the 1) Peyton destiny-legacy-story thing, and 2) siding with offense over defense. The public often does go with the fireworks of a scoring machine (Denver) over the more boring stalwart defense (Seattle), believing the offense will simply outscore the opposition. But typically I believe great defense vs. great offense -- the defense typically wins out, esp. at this level of play. And I don't just look at typical yardage metricsbut also combine them with points scored metrics, often more revealing. Yes, Seattle has a very good D, but whereas their secondary is the best in league their rush D is just a bit better than average. Yet where their D really excels is not just in doing a good job of giving up minimal yardage to foe, but even better they give up fewer points, which ultimately is what matters! Meaning the Seattle D is very efficient, allowing teams to get yardage more midfield but the closer teams get to red zone, the more Seattle buckles down and stops them from scoring TDs, forcing more often FGs. These kinds of Ds are deceptively very good because much of that efficiency and getting better depending on where you are on the field is often lost in overall team statistics. Compare this to Denver's D, which arguably has a better rush D than Seattle (!) but just an OK secondary. BUT, when it comes to efficiency and allowing points, Denver's D comes nowhere near Seattle's. Denver's defense is much more soft and porous regarding points scored, even within the red zone, allowing foes to score much more often than does Seattle. This weakness doesn't hurt Denver as much when they're facing a team that 1) has a mediocre-to-poor offense and can't exploit Denver defense, and/or 2) the foe has a mediocre-to-poor defense meaning Denver can just outscore the foe. Neither of those two conditions apply here. Seattle has a top defense, negating point 2, but they also have a very good offense (which is getting overlooked because of Peyton & Co. offense), negating point 1. Both Seattle's rushing and passing game has outperformed stat-wise versus the level of defenses they've faced, meaning they should do just fine versus Denver's D.
Two other points. As for turnovers, you may be right that they don't become a factor, but I tend to doubt it. Seattle has averaged 1.1 turnovers and 2.4 takeaways for +1.3 differential. Denver has averaged 1.6 turnovers and 1.4 takeaways for -0.2 differential, or a whopping +1.5 combined differential favoring Seattle. Just in this post-season, Seattle has a +3 TO differential and Denver has -2 TO differential. I know, I know, turnovers can't be predicted, they tend to be random, etc., and mind you Denver is in SB despite -0.2 TO differential (they often overcome TOs). But have to think the way Seattle D plays, they're always looking to strip ball and create turnovers, so less by chance or random. And turnovers at this level, in the Super Bowl, is a huge game changer. Look at last year's SB, SF was just -1 in TO differential, enough to tip scales. And consider the team with the fewest turnovers in the Super Bowl is now 35-3 straight-up. In fact, I think one of the better props is which team will have more turnovers, with Denver at -150 and Seattle +120. Even Vegas has Denver as a strong favorite to be the team with more turnovers, undoubtedly based on the numbers I just cited. However, it's interesting that Vegas has this -150 line on the prop, and the team with more turnovers is 3-35 in Super Bowl, and yet Denver is favored to win the game.... I guess Denver is expected to once again overcome turnovers, or Denver as the favorite more a result of "dumb" public money (I heavily lean to latter, as already discussed above).
Finally, I also wanted to mention the playing surface. Much is being written about the weather, but it's supposed to be a balmy 50 degrees tomorrow afternoon in north Jersey, getting down to 40 degrees for much of the game -- not bad, or MUCH better than what was feared. And wind is supposed to be 5-7 mph, again not bad. So weather shouldn't be a factor. However, for what it's worth, Denver is 11-6 ATS overall, very good, but just 1-3 ATS in games played on turf. Right, those games are on the road and takes away home field edge, but this is ATS, not SU, which factors that in, and also this SB, to be played on turf, is an away game (neutral field). The last three years, Denver is 3-7 ATS on turf, meaning 1-3 this season, but still still bad 2-4 in two prior seasons. Hmmm. Meanwhile, Seattle is 9-6 ATS on turf this year and 25-13 ATS on turf last three years. Also note Seattle is 13-2 SU on turf this season and 26-12 SU on turf last three seasons (just thought I'd mention since they're getting +2). Can make the case Seattle's team is better built for speedier turf than Denver's. Also note Seattle's takeaways on turf are 2.7 on average (11 games) versus 2.4 overall average, meaning they seemingly take advantage of the faster, harder surface to create more turnovers.
Ok, that's enough. Over-analysis? Perhaps. But if Denver wins easy, I'll at least know that they overcame much of what I wrote above and thus clearly deserve it! I still think the "true" line should be Seattle -6 or even -7, and this SB reminds most of the TB vs. Oakland SB XXXVII game, where TB was the dog and had the #1 ranked D and Oakland had the #1 ranked offense, again much like this game. Also, that game had the big sideshow storyline of Gruden facing his old team, blah blah blah, similarly this game has the Peyton sideshow story. TB ended up winning easy 48-21 (and for what it's worth I do think this SB goes Over 48), in large part due to Rich Gannon's five (!) INTs, a SB record. Make no mistake, Peyton by no means is a Rich Gannon (!!), he's far superior, but it's interesting that the SB MVP for that game was TB secondary Dexter Jackson -- could history repeat with Seattle's Sherman? Smile. Call it 28-24 Seattle. Good luck!
Seattle, from web site emsportspix pretty good write-up
I thought I'd post my take on this Super Bowl. I wrote my analysis as an email to my brother, for the most part I didn't change a thing, just copied it below. Enjoy and good luck!
----------------------------------------------------------
Truth be told, I am sort of rooting for Peyton, he's a great player, not a jerk, and frankly in my opinion he deserves more rings than Eli, but that may open up whole other can of worms.... HOWEVER, as I mentioned before, the Vegas "gods" typically don't care about who deserves anything, or "needs it for legacy" stuff -- if anything they work that subjective opinion stuff into the line, meaning the line typically negates all that public sentiment on one side of things. And here it's clearly all about Peyton.
Must say much of the analysis in your email to me falls under the Peyton-trap I've been writing about.... We all know he has a good offense to help him execute and win, and we also know this game means alot to him, to get monkey off back, to get ring vs. Eli, his legacy -- all that stuff. But that can be said about any QB in the SB, they all want to win it, badly! So Peyton really, really, really wants to win it?? As in Spinal Tap, he's turned up to 11 (with 10 highest)?? It gets silly.... And the fact is for better or worse, he has come up short in big games in the past, a fact... tomorrow may be different, but facts are facts.... (granted, this Denver team different than past Indy versions, but wasn't like those Colts teams sucked....)
I still think the line is overly skewed towards Denver. Don't forget, this game actually opened Seattle -1, favored by Vegas, and Vegas ain't dumb. The line quickly moved to Denver, in large part due to "dumb" public money playing the 1) Peyton destiny-legacy-story thing, and 2) siding with offense over defense. The public often does go with the fireworks of a scoring machine (Denver) over the more boring stalwart defense (Seattle), believing the offense will simply outscore the opposition. But typically I believe great defense vs. great offense -- the defense typically wins out, esp. at this level of play. And I don't just look at typical yardage metricsbut also combine them with points scored metrics, often more revealing. Yes, Seattle has a very good D, but whereas their secondary is the best in league their rush D is just a bit better than average. Yet where their D really excels is not just in doing a good job of giving up minimal yardage to foe, but even better they give up fewer points, which ultimately is what matters! Meaning the Seattle D is very efficient, allowing teams to get yardage more midfield but the closer teams get to red zone, the more Seattle buckles down and stops them from scoring TDs, forcing more often FGs. These kinds of Ds are deceptively very good because much of that efficiency and getting better depending on where you are on the field is often lost in overall team statistics. Compare this to Denver's D, which arguably has a better rush D than Seattle (!) but just an OK secondary. BUT, when it comes to efficiency and allowing points, Denver's D comes nowhere near Seattle's. Denver's defense is much more soft and porous regarding points scored, even within the red zone, allowing foes to score much more often than does Seattle. This weakness doesn't hurt Denver as much when they're facing a team that 1) has a mediocre-to-poor offense and can't exploit Denver defense, and/or 2) the foe has a mediocre-to-poor defense meaning Denver can just outscore the foe. Neither of those two conditions apply here. Seattle has a top defense, negating point 2, but they also have a very good offense (which is getting overlooked because of Peyton & Co. offense), negating point 1. Both Seattle's rushing and passing game has outperformed stat-wise versus the level of defenses they've faced, meaning they should do just fine versus Denver's D.
Two other points. As for turnovers, you may be right that they don't become a factor, but I tend to doubt it. Seattle has averaged 1.1 turnovers and 2.4 takeaways for +1.3 differential. Denver has averaged 1.6 turnovers and 1.4 takeaways for -0.2 differential, or a whopping +1.5 combined differential favoring Seattle. Just in this post-season, Seattle has a +3 TO differential and Denver has -2 TO differential. I know, I know, turnovers can't be predicted, they tend to be random, etc., and mind you Denver is in SB despite -0.2 TO differential (they often overcome TOs). But have to think the way Seattle D plays, they're always looking to strip ball and create turnovers, so less by chance or random. And turnovers at this level, in the Super Bowl, is a huge game changer. Look at last year's SB, SF was just -1 in TO differential, enough to tip scales. And consider the team with the fewest turnovers in the Super Bowl is now 35-3 straight-up. In fact, I think one of the better props is which team will have more turnovers, with Denver at -150 and Seattle +120. Even Vegas has Denver as a strong favorite to be the team with more turnovers, undoubtedly based on the numbers I just cited. However, it's interesting that Vegas has this -150 line on the prop, and the team with more turnovers is 3-35 in Super Bowl, and yet Denver is favored to win the game.... I guess Denver is expected to once again overcome turnovers, or Denver as the favorite more a result of "dumb" public money (I heavily lean to latter, as already discussed above).
Finally, I also wanted to mention the playing surface. Much is being written about the weather, but it's supposed to be a balmy 50 degrees tomorrow afternoon in north Jersey, getting down to 40 degrees for much of the game -- not bad, or MUCH better than what was feared. And wind is supposed to be 5-7 mph, again not bad. So weather shouldn't be a factor. However, for what it's worth, Denver is 11-6 ATS overall, very good, but just 1-3 ATS in games played on turf. Right, those games are on the road and takes away home field edge, but this is ATS, not SU, which factors that in, and also this SB, to be played on turf, is an away game (neutral field). The last three years, Denver is 3-7 ATS on turf, meaning 1-3 this season, but still still bad 2-4 in two prior seasons. Hmmm. Meanwhile, Seattle is 9-6 ATS on turf this year and 25-13 ATS on turf last three years. Also note Seattle is 13-2 SU on turf this season and 26-12 SU on turf last three seasons (just thought I'd mention since they're getting +2). Can make the case Seattle's team is better built for speedier turf than Denver's. Also note Seattle's takeaways on turf are 2.7 on average (11 games) versus 2.4 overall average, meaning they seemingly take advantage of the faster, harder surface to create more turnovers.
Ok, that's enough. Over-analysis? Perhaps. But if Denver wins easy, I'll at least know that they overcame much of what I wrote above and thus clearly deserve it! I still think the "true" line should be Seattle -6 or even -7, and this SB reminds most of the TB vs. Oakland SB XXXVII game, where TB was the dog and had the #1 ranked D and Oakland had the #1 ranked offense, again much like this game. Also, that game had the big sideshow storyline of Gruden facing his old team, blah blah blah, similarly this game has the Peyton sideshow story. TB ended up winning easy 48-21 (and for what it's worth I do think this SB goes Over 48), in large part due to Rich Gannon's five (!) INTs, a SB record. Make no mistake, Peyton by no means is a Rich Gannon (!!), he's far superior, but it's interesting that the SB MVP for that game was TB secondary Dexter Jackson -- could history repeat with Seattle's Sherman? Smile. Call it 28-24 Seattle. Good luck!
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +108 over Denver
Roughly about six weeks ago, books were putting out a Super Bowl line that featured the NFC versus the AFC, regardless of the matchup. This wasn’t a random number either, as the oddsmakers had to consider every possible Super Bowl matchup and what they came up with was the NFC as a 2½-point choice regardless of the matchup. Surely at that point, a Seattle/Denver Super Bowl was a distinct possibility that certainly was considered when they posted that advanced line. Now, we can break down this game like anyone else but that would just be redundant, as we all know it’ll come down to Seattle’s defense versus Denver’s offense. That said, we’re always looking to play the side that offers up the most value and when you consider that just a few weeks ago, the NFC was a 2½-point favorite over the AFC, our choice isn’t a difficult one.
The betting market loves offense and they love Peyton Manning. Make no mistake, this is Manning's Super Bowl as far as the media is concerned. He will embody the success or failure by the Broncos. He's the default MVP unless someone else does something really notable. He deserves it too, as watching Manning run an offense, especially when you have money on him, is one of the most enjoyable and compelling spectacles in sports. No QB in the history of the NFL has ever had as much presence, knowledge or ability to instantly recognize what the defense is bringing as Peyton Manning. He is the master of the quick read and perhaps the toughest quarterback to confuse in the NFL. However, this is also going to be the coldest Super Bowl ever and that has to favor the Seahawks. It’ll favor the Seahawks even more if there are gusty winds.
Let’s not forget that the Broncos defense is pure garbage. Week after week, they were torched but their league-leading offense masked their deficiencies. The Broncos surrendered 51 points to Dallas, 39 to Indy, 28 to K.C., 28 to Tennessee and 34 to New England. That’s just five games and the Seahawks didn’t give up that many points combined in their final 13 games of the year including playoffs.
When we look at the schedules of these teams throughout the year, what we see is a Broncos team that had it rather easy. Their best win was against New England in the AFC Championship? Kansas City? Truthfully, the Broncos played weakling after weakling that included games against Oakland (twice) Baltimore, the Giants, Jacksonville, Washington, Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Of course Manning is going to put up big numbers against that group. The Broncos toughest games this year were against Dallas, Indy, New England and Kansas City. They lost to the Patriots in the regular season, they lost to Indy and needed a minor miracle to defeat the 'Boys. Denver also defeated K.C both times, by 10 and 7 points respectively. Meanwhile, the Seahawks played San Fran three times, New Orleans twice and Carolina once. They went 4-1 in those games with only loss occurring in San Fran by two points.
Seattle is the 16th team to appear in the Super Bowl as the squad that allowed the fewest points during the regular season. The previous 15 that accomplished the same feat are 12-3 in the championship game. Peyton Manning led the NFL in passing. A regular season passing leader has NEVER won a Super Bowl and only four have been in the SB. They all lost, Dan Marino in 1984, Kurt Warner in 2001, Rich Gannon in 2002 and Tom Brady in 2007. You can add Peyton Manning in 2013 to that group. The better team taking a tag is the right way to play this one.
Seattle +108 over Denver
Roughly about six weeks ago, books were putting out a Super Bowl line that featured the NFC versus the AFC, regardless of the matchup. This wasn’t a random number either, as the oddsmakers had to consider every possible Super Bowl matchup and what they came up with was the NFC as a 2½-point choice regardless of the matchup. Surely at that point, a Seattle/Denver Super Bowl was a distinct possibility that certainly was considered when they posted that advanced line. Now, we can break down this game like anyone else but that would just be redundant, as we all know it’ll come down to Seattle’s defense versus Denver’s offense. That said, we’re always looking to play the side that offers up the most value and when you consider that just a few weeks ago, the NFC was a 2½-point favorite over the AFC, our choice isn’t a difficult one.
The betting market loves offense and they love Peyton Manning. Make no mistake, this is Manning's Super Bowl as far as the media is concerned. He will embody the success or failure by the Broncos. He's the default MVP unless someone else does something really notable. He deserves it too, as watching Manning run an offense, especially when you have money on him, is one of the most enjoyable and compelling spectacles in sports. No QB in the history of the NFL has ever had as much presence, knowledge or ability to instantly recognize what the defense is bringing as Peyton Manning. He is the master of the quick read and perhaps the toughest quarterback to confuse in the NFL. However, this is also going to be the coldest Super Bowl ever and that has to favor the Seahawks. It’ll favor the Seahawks even more if there are gusty winds.
Let’s not forget that the Broncos defense is pure garbage. Week after week, they were torched but their league-leading offense masked their deficiencies. The Broncos surrendered 51 points to Dallas, 39 to Indy, 28 to K.C., 28 to Tennessee and 34 to New England. That’s just five games and the Seahawks didn’t give up that many points combined in their final 13 games of the year including playoffs.
When we look at the schedules of these teams throughout the year, what we see is a Broncos team that had it rather easy. Their best win was against New England in the AFC Championship? Kansas City? Truthfully, the Broncos played weakling after weakling that included games against Oakland (twice) Baltimore, the Giants, Jacksonville, Washington, Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Of course Manning is going to put up big numbers against that group. The Broncos toughest games this year were against Dallas, Indy, New England and Kansas City. They lost to the Patriots in the regular season, they lost to Indy and needed a minor miracle to defeat the 'Boys. Denver also defeated K.C both times, by 10 and 7 points respectively. Meanwhile, the Seahawks played San Fran three times, New Orleans twice and Carolina once. They went 4-1 in those games with only loss occurring in San Fran by two points.
Seattle is the 16th team to appear in the Super Bowl as the squad that allowed the fewest points during the regular season. The previous 15 that accomplished the same feat are 12-3 in the championship game. Peyton Manning led the NFL in passing. A regular season passing leader has NEVER won a Super Bowl and only four have been in the SB. They all lost, Dan Marino in 1984, Kurt Warner in 2001, Rich Gannon in 2002 and Tom Brady in 2007. You can add Peyton Manning in 2013 to that group. The better team taking a tag is the right way to play this one.
Bob Balfe
Super Bowl Pick & Top 10 Prop Bets
February 2nd 2014
My Super Bowl Pick is Seattle +2 over the Broncos.
Here are my top 10 prop bets. Don't go nuts on playing too many props.
Total Interceptions - Peyton Manning (DEN)
Over 1/2 -145
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - How many times will "12th man" be said during the game?
OVer 2 -130
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance
NO +170
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will Wes Welker drop a pass in the game?
Yes +130
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Denver -150
SUPER BOWL XLVIII - Coin Toss
Tails -105
(SEA @ DEN) - Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Over 44.5 -115
(SEA @ DEN) - Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points?
NO -500
(SEA @ DEN) - Will there be a missed extra point after touchdown
YES +800
(SEA @ DEN) - Total Number of Penalties Assessed on the Denver Broncos
OVER 5.5 -115
Super Bowl Pick & Top 10 Prop Bets
February 2nd 2014
My Super Bowl Pick is Seattle +2 over the Broncos.
Here are my top 10 prop bets. Don't go nuts on playing too many props.
Total Interceptions - Peyton Manning (DEN)
Over 1/2 -145
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - How many times will "12th man" be said during the game?
OVer 2 -130
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance
NO +170
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Will Wes Welker drop a pass in the game?
Yes +130
SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS - Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Denver -150
SUPER BOWL XLVIII - Coin Toss
Tails -105
(SEA @ DEN) - Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Over 44.5 -115
(SEA @ DEN) - Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points?
NO -500
(SEA @ DEN) - Will there be a missed extra point after touchdown
YES +800
(SEA @ DEN) - Total Number of Penalties Assessed on the Denver Broncos
OVER 5.5 -115
Sharps like Seahawks, Wilson in prop bets
by Andrew Avery
According to an oddsmaker from BetDSI, sharp bettors have weighed in on Super Bowl prop bets.
"Sharp action is backing several Super Bowl props with a lot of them favoring the Seahawks and Russell Wilson," the oddsmaker said. "The prop betting trends are demonstrating a more negative bias for Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno. In one bright spot for the Broncos, Wes Welker is seeing some love from sharp money."
Here is a look at some prop bets which sharp bettors have backed:
Seattle Props:
Russell Wilson - Over 26.5 pass attempts
Russell Wilson - Over 30.5 rushing yards
Seattle - Over 1.5 field goals
Seattle to score the shortest touchdown of the game.
Broncos Props:
Peyton manning - Under 27.5 completions
Moreno - Under 15.5 rushing attempts
Moreno - Under 60.5 rushing yards
Moreno to not score a touchdown
Welker -11.5 receiving yards vs Baldwin
Welker +11.5 receiving yards vs Decker
Game Props:
Total Sacks Under 4.5
by Andrew Avery
According to an oddsmaker from BetDSI, sharp bettors have weighed in on Super Bowl prop bets.
"Sharp action is backing several Super Bowl props with a lot of them favoring the Seahawks and Russell Wilson," the oddsmaker said. "The prop betting trends are demonstrating a more negative bias for Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno. In one bright spot for the Broncos, Wes Welker is seeing some love from sharp money."
Here is a look at some prop bets which sharp bettors have backed:
Seattle Props:
Russell Wilson - Over 26.5 pass attempts
Russell Wilson - Over 30.5 rushing yards
Seattle - Over 1.5 field goals
Seattle to score the shortest touchdown of the game.
Broncos Props:
Peyton manning - Under 27.5 completions
Moreno - Under 15.5 rushing attempts
Moreno - Under 60.5 rushing yards
Moreno to not score a touchdown
Welker -11.5 receiving yards vs Baldwin
Welker +11.5 receiving yards vs Decker
Game Props:
Total Sacks Under 4.5
