Intpicks
SuperBowl Pick - 3* Denver Broncos -2
1* Sea / Den Under 48.5
1* Michigan -2
1* Boston -5
Superbowl Prop Bets:
Final Score of the game will be field goal/safety
Total Combined Field Goals Made Over 3.5
Total Reception Wes Welker Over 5.5
Denver Over 91.5 Rushing Yards
Monte Ball - Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts
Longest Field Goal Score in the Game will be over 44.5 yrds
Total QB sacks in the game by both teams under 4.5
Free Pick
Over 34.5 rushing Yards Monte Ball
Highest Scoring Quarter by both teams Under 20
Will Broncos Get rushing TD YES
SuperBowl Pick - 3* Denver Broncos -2
1* Sea / Den Under 48.5
1* Michigan -2
1* Boston -5
Superbowl Prop Bets:
Final Score of the game will be field goal/safety
Total Combined Field Goals Made Over 3.5
Total Reception Wes Welker Over 5.5
Denver Over 91.5 Rushing Yards
Monte Ball - Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts
Longest Field Goal Score in the Game will be over 44.5 yrds
Total QB sacks in the game by both teams under 4.5
Free Pick
Over 34.5 rushing Yards Monte Ball
Highest Scoring Quarter by both teams Under 20
Will Broncos Get rushing TD YES
DAVID BANKS
Super Bowl XLVIII
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Two weeks of hype is finally over and it will be the top offense in NFL
history in the Denver Broncos taking on the top defense in the NFL this year in
the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII from MetLife Stadium in East
Rutherford, NJ Sunday at 6:30 ET on FOX. The Broncos set an NFL record this
season for both total offense at 457.3 yards per game and points scored at 37.9
per contest. The Seahawks led the league this season in total defense
surrendering just 273.6 yards per game and in scoring defense allowing an average
of 14.4 points. So who usually prevails in these types of battles?
Well, this is the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the number one
offense has taken on the number one defense, and the defense went 3-1 in the
first four meetings. Furthermore, the one time that the number one offense won
it all, it was one of the most complete teams of all time in the 1989-90 San
Francisco 49ers who also boasted the league's third ranked defense. But
wait there is more! Thus far, 15 teams that led the NFL in total defense have
reached the Super Bowl, and those teams have gone 12-3. Now there is
obviously no question that Denver's Peyton Manning is a far superior quarterback to
Seattle's Russell Wilson, but keep in mind that even Trent Dilfer won a
Super Bowl riding the coattails of a phenomenal defense, and Wilson's mobility
can also add a nice variable vs. the Denver defense. And it is the Seahawks
that unquestionably have the better running game here led by Marshawn Lynch,
and many a team has been carried by great defense and a power running game
to a Super Bowl title.
Manning comes off of possibly his best season at the age of 37 as he set an
NFL record with 55 touchdown passes, passing for 5477 yards while
completing 68.3 percent of his passes and averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt with
only 10 interception. However, it is safe to say that Manning did not face a
devastating defense like this all season. Say what you will about the
boisterous Seahawk cornerback Richard Sherman, but he backs up his words on the
gridiron and is fully capable of taking away half the field in this game.
Also, while Manning passed for 400 yards vs. a decimated New England defense in
the AFC Championship Game, surprisingly little has been made of the fact
that the Broncos still scored only 26 points in that contest after scoring 24
points vs. the San Diego Chargers in the Divisional round, so it is not a
given that the Broncos will put up the video-game type numbers they put up
during the regular season, especially given the defense they are facing here.
The Seahawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, 18-7 ATS in
their last 25 games following a straight up win and 13-4 ATS vs. teams with
winning records. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and
4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
PICK: UNDER 48
SUNDAY FEB 2/2014 NFL SUPERBOWL PROPS
SUPERBOWL PROP #1:
First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135)
SUPERBOWL PROP #2
Marshawn Lynch to score a TD (-155)
SUPERBOWL PROP #3
Longest Field Goal made (UNDER 43.5 -110)
SUPERBOWL PROP #4
First coaches challenge SEATTLE (-110)
SUPERBOWL PROP #5
Wes Welker to make OVER 5.5 receptions (-135)
Super Bowl XLVIII
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Two weeks of hype is finally over and it will be the top offense in NFL
history in the Denver Broncos taking on the top defense in the NFL this year in
the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII from MetLife Stadium in East
Rutherford, NJ Sunday at 6:30 ET on FOX. The Broncos set an NFL record this
season for both total offense at 457.3 yards per game and points scored at 37.9
per contest. The Seahawks led the league this season in total defense
surrendering just 273.6 yards per game and in scoring defense allowing an average
of 14.4 points. So who usually prevails in these types of battles?
Well, this is the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the number one
offense has taken on the number one defense, and the defense went 3-1 in the
first four meetings. Furthermore, the one time that the number one offense won
it all, it was one of the most complete teams of all time in the 1989-90 San
Francisco 49ers who also boasted the league's third ranked defense. But
wait there is more! Thus far, 15 teams that led the NFL in total defense have
reached the Super Bowl, and those teams have gone 12-3. Now there is
obviously no question that Denver's Peyton Manning is a far superior quarterback to
Seattle's Russell Wilson, but keep in mind that even Trent Dilfer won a
Super Bowl riding the coattails of a phenomenal defense, and Wilson's mobility
can also add a nice variable vs. the Denver defense. And it is the Seahawks
that unquestionably have the better running game here led by Marshawn Lynch,
and many a team has been carried by great defense and a power running game
to a Super Bowl title.
Manning comes off of possibly his best season at the age of 37 as he set an
NFL record with 55 touchdown passes, passing for 5477 yards while
completing 68.3 percent of his passes and averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt with
only 10 interception. However, it is safe to say that Manning did not face a
devastating defense like this all season. Say what you will about the
boisterous Seahawk cornerback Richard Sherman, but he backs up his words on the
gridiron and is fully capable of taking away half the field in this game.
Also, while Manning passed for 400 yards vs. a decimated New England defense in
the AFC Championship Game, surprisingly little has been made of the fact
that the Broncos still scored only 26 points in that contest after scoring 24
points vs. the San Diego Chargers in the Divisional round, so it is not a
given that the Broncos will put up the video-game type numbers they put up
during the regular season, especially given the defense they are facing here.
The Seahawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, 18-7 ATS in
their last 25 games following a straight up win and 13-4 ATS vs. teams with
winning records. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and
4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
PICK: UNDER 48
SUNDAY FEB 2/2014 NFL SUPERBOWL PROPS
SUPERBOWL PROP #1:
First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135)
SUPERBOWL PROP #2
Marshawn Lynch to score a TD (-155)
SUPERBOWL PROP #3
Longest Field Goal made (UNDER 43.5 -110)
SUPERBOWL PROP #4
First coaches challenge SEATTLE (-110)
SUPERBOWL PROP #5
Wes Welker to make OVER 5.5 receptions (-135)
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/2/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 2/2/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Sunday's Notebook
•Purdue's 65-64 (-7) win over Penn State 15 days ago was Boilermakers' 4th in row, 14th in last 18 games with PSU; they were down 3 with 1:11 left, but rallied to win. Nittany Lions won last two games since by total of 5 points, but lost last seven visits here, with five of seven losses by 14+ points- five of their last six games overall were decided by 4 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-5 versus spread.
•Home teams had won last nine USF-Cincinnati games until Bearcats won 61-54 (-7) in Tampa Jan 18. Bulls lost last six visits to Queen City, last three all by exactly 8 points. USF is 3-8 in last 11 games but upset SMU at home last game; they lost last two road games by 17-22 points after lone road win, at Temple. AAC double digit home favorites are 10-3 versus spread. Cincinnati won last 13 games, upset Louisville Thursday.
•Virginia is 7-1 in Atlantic Coast Conference with only loss by 4 at Duke when Blue Devils got couple lucky bounces in last 1:00; Cavaliers have three road wins in ACC, at FSU/NC State/ND- they allowed 56.3 ppg in winning last four games. Pittsburgh lost last home game to Duke, but won other three conference home games by 15+ points. Virginia leads league, forcing turnovers 23.3% of time. ACC favorites of 6 or less points are 5-13 versus spread.
•Milwaukee (+6) won 84-75 at Oakland Jan 8 after falling behind early in game 13-2; Panthers held Oakland to 3-25 from arc, overcoming -8 ratio in turnovers (17-9). Horizon League home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-12 versus spread. Grizzlies are 1-3 on Horizon road, with only win at 3-6 Detroit. Milwaukee lost three of last four games, are 2-3 in Horizon home games, upsetting Wright State Thursday, after losing previous three.
•Michigan is 8-0 in conference, with none of its four road wins by more than 7 points; Wolverines are 5-13 in last 18 games with Indiana, losing last four visits to Bloomington by 6-19-2-8 points. Big Dozen home underdogs are 7-8 versus spread, 0-3 if the number was less than 3 points. Indiana is 3-5 in conference play, 2-2 at home, beating Wisconsin/Illinois; six of its eight games in conference were decided by 7 or less points.
•Buffalo won seven of last nine games, is 5-2 in Mid-American Conference with two losses on road by total of 5 points; Bulls won three of last four games versus Bowling Green, but lost five of last seven visits to Stroh Center, losing 76-65 LY- they're 1-2 on MAC road, with only win at N. Illinois. MAC home underdogs are 4-6 versus spread. Falcons lost three of four conference games, losing by 5-9-5 points- their only home win was over #263 Central Michigan.
•William & Mary (-7.5) beat James Madison 78-56 Jan 18, making 10-20 on arc, scoring 1.32 ppp; win snapped 4-game skid versus James Madison, who allowed 52 ppg in winning last two games after starting Colonial Athletic Association play 1-4. Dukes are 1-2 at home in CAA, with both losses by 4. Tribe is 1-2 on conference road, with only win by hoop at Drexel. CAA home teams are 6-13 in games where spread was less than 5 points.
•UCLA won 14 of last 15 games with Oregon State, but lost last visit to Corvallis in '12, after winning previous six visits to Gill Coliseum. Bruins won five of last six games, are 2-1 on Pac-12 road, with wins by hoop at Oregon and at Colorado in first game after Dinwiddie got hurt. Beavers are 3-1 in its Pac-12 home games, with only loss by 5 to California. Pac-12 home underdogs of 3+ points are 8-4 against the spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- S FLORIDA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 53.5, OPPONENT 67.4.
-- S FLORIDA is 14-0 UNDER (+14.0 Units) after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 61.2, OPPONENT 57.8.
-- CINCINNATI is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 26.4, OPPONENT 28.4.
-- BOWLING GREEN is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 28.0, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- JOHN BEILEIN is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds as the coach of MICHIGAN.
The average score was BEILEIN 68.7, OPPONENT 63.5.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was BUFFALO 73.7, OPPONENT 64.4.
-- WM & MARY is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was WM & MARY 61.9, OPPONENT 62.4.
-- VIRGINIA is 16-4 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA 33.0, OPPONENT 25.2.
--S FLORIDA is 18-3 UNDER (+14.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 24.1, OPPONENT 27.8.
-- JAMIE DIXON is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=57 points/game as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was DIXON 33.1, OPPONENT 27.4.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JAMES MADISON) - a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.), revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less.
(37-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +28.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (36-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 63.3 (Average point differential = +4.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (30.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (77-56).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(69-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +38.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-59 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 70.1 (Average point differential = -2.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 35 (36.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (14-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-11).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (157-150).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points versus the first half line (CINCINNATI) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
(34-10 since 1997.) (77.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.6, Opponent 35 (Average first half point differential = -5.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#803 PURDUE @ #804 PENN ST
(TV: 11:30 AM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Penn State -3.5, Total: N/A) - Only three games separate third through 12th place in the Big Ten standings, and Penn State and visiting Purdue will be looking to make up ground when they meet Sunday in State College, Pa. The Nittany Lions still sit in last following their one-point overtime victory Wednesday at No. 23 Ohio State, ending an 18-game losing streak against the Buckeyes. The Boilermakers have lost three in a row, falling into a three-way tie for seventh with Ohio State and Indiana.
Penn State and Purdue are in their position mainly because they give up more points than the remaining Big Ten teams. One thing the Boilermakers do well is rebound as a team, ranking third in the conference behind Indiana and Iowa with five players averaging between 4.0 and 6.9 boards a game. The Nittany Lions have something Purdue doesn’t in D.J. Newbill, a proven scorer who averages 17.6 points, fourth most in the conference.
•ABOUT PURDUE (13-8 SU, 7-11-0 ATS, 3-5 Big Ten): A.J. Hammons was plagued by inconsistency last season, scoring two points against Michigan one week and a career-high 30 the next when both opponents were ranked No. 3 in the coaches’ poll. The 7-foot sophomore center seems to be finding more stable footing as this season unfolds, reaching double figures in scoring in six of eight conference games. Purdue's starting frontline consists of 6-9 forward Donovon Jack and 6-7 forward Brandon Taylor and neither averages more than five rebounds, so Hammons should have room to roam in the paint.
•ABOUT PENN STATE (11-10 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 2-6 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions can only wonder how things might be had last season’s third-leading scorer, Jermaine Marshall, not bolted for Arizona State, where he’s averaging 15 points as a senior graduate transfer. Penn State would have returned Newbill, its leading scorer from last season, and been joined by Tim Frazier, who averaged a team-high 18.8 points two years ago before rupturing his left Achilles tendon in the fourth game last season. Frazier has returned to full strength, averaging 16.1 points, 6.4 assists and 4.8 rebounds, ranking in the top three for Penn State in all three categories.
•PREGAME NOTES: Purdue is 4-0 this season when giving up more second-chance points than its opponent.... Purdue and Penn State are the top two teams in the conference in blocked shots.... Penn State has won back-to-back Big Ten games for the first time since the 2011-12 season.... The Boilermakers are 15-33 against the spread in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.... The Nittany Lions are 8-1 against the 1rst half line versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 577 times, while PURDUE covered the spread 423 times. *EDGE against the spread =PENN ST. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST won the game straight up 657 times, while PURDUE won 326 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 502 times, while PURDUE covered the first half line 459 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PURDUE is 17-13 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--PURDUE is 22-8 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--15 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PENN ST is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against PURDUE since 1997.
--14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 16-4 in the last 20 meetings.
--Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Penn St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PUR is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Under is 5-1 in PUR last 6 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 4-1 in PUR last 5 Sunday games.
--PSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big Ten.
--PSU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in PSU last 8 Sun. games.
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#805 S FLORIDA @ #806 CINCINNATI
(TV: Noon EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Cincinnati -14.5, Total: N/A) - It has been 22 years since Cincinnati reached the Final Four, but the 2013-14 Bearcats appear poised to make a deep run in March. Cincinnati, seeking its 14th straight victory, hosts South Florida on Sunday, three days after knocking off the defending NCAA champion and 15 days after winning on the Bulls' homecourt. Bearcats guard Sean Kilpatrick (19.5 points per game) is among the contenders for American Athletic Conference Player of the Year while fellow seniors Justin Jackson and Titus Robles combine to average 18.5 points and 13.4 rebounds.
“You can’t understand the fortitude of Titus, Justin and S.K.," Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin told reporters. "That’s why we have the record we have. You know what they say: In a fight, everybody’s tougher when they’ve got tough guys around them. And I’ve got three of the toughest guys in the country.” The Bearcats are coming off a quality road win against No. 7 Louisville while the Bulls defeated Southern Methodist to snap a four-game losing streak. “We want to use these couple days wisely and really prepare for Cincinnati,” South Florida coach Stan Heath told reporters after the win. “It could be a big, big game for us if we can find a way to get up there and pull it off.”
•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (11-10, 7-11-0 ATS, 2-6 AAC): The Bulls are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they shoot 26.2 percent as a group with only injured point guard Anthony Collins (38.9 percent) making more than a third of his attempts. Leading scorer Victor Rudd (14.7 points) has been particularly awful from behind the arc of late, knocking down just two of his 17 attempts over the last five games. If South Florida is going to have any shot to win this game, Heath needs more production out of Corey Allen Jr., who scored 18 points against SMU to bounce back from four straight poor outings, including a scoreless effort in the first matchup with the Bearcats.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (20-2, 10-6-0 ATS, 9-0 AAC): Kilpatrick, a 6-4 guard, has scored in double figures in 21 of the Bearcats' 22 games and has made multiple 3-pointers in each of the last five contests. Rubles is a stark contrast to Kilpatrick, not attempting a 3-pointer all season but rather doing his damage in the paint to the tune of 7.4 points and 6.4 boards. Jackson, who has battled through an ankle injury this week, hopes to duplicate his all-around effort against Louisville - 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.
•PREGAME NOTES: Prior to its win over SMU, South Florida had faced three consecutive ranked opponents (Cincinnati, Louisville and Memphis) and did not reach 60 points against any of them.... Jackson has 73 blocks on the season while his teammates have combined for 61.... Cincinnati allowed 76 points to Temple and 66 to Louisville in its last two games after not allowing more than 62 during the first 11 games of its winning streak.... The Bearcats are 5-13 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the spread 605 times, while S FLORIDA covered the spread 395 times. *EDGE against the spread =CINCINNATI. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 898 times, while S FLORIDA won 84 times. In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 513 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S FLORIDA is 13-8 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 16-5 straight up against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--S FLORIDA is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulls are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USF is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Sun. games.
--Under is 49-20-1 in USF last 70 overall.
--Under is 41-17 in USF last 58 road games.
--CIN is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--CIN is 7-30 ATS in their last 37 Sun. games.
--Under is 7-1 in CIN last 8 Sun. games.
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#807 VIRGINIA @ #808 PITTSBURGH
(TV: 12:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: N/A) - Virginia can take a big step toward joining the Top 25 if the Cavaliers can win a road game Sunday against No. 17 Pittsburgh. The Panthers already lost by 15 points this week to No. 16 Duke, also on their home floor, and will likely need a win just to remain in the coaches’ poll. Of more importance to both teams is the ACC race, where Virginia heads into the weekend one game behind No. 2 Syracuse, one of three unbeaten teams remaining in Division I, and a game ahead of Pittsburgh and Duke.
The tough part for Pittsburgh will be figuring out how to score on the Cavaliers. They come in giving up an average of 56 points, which led the nation heading into the weekend, and haven’t surrendered more than 69 points in conference play. The Panthers enter 17th in the nation in scoring defense (61.1) and lead the ACC in field-goal percentage (48.5), assists (16.7) and rebounding margin (+8.5).
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (16-5 SU, 11-6-0 ATS, 7-1 ACC): The Cavaliers don’t have a player averaging 12 points or better, but sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon has surpassed his current team-leading scoring average (11.6) in the last seven games and has reached double figures in a season-high eight straight overall. Brogdon hasn’t just been scoring lately either, producing a season-best five steals while matching his season highs of seven rebounds and six assists in Tuesday’s 15-point win against Notre Dame. Brogdon is also a combined 6-for-9 from 3-point range in the last two games.
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (18-3 SU, 7-10-1 ATS, 6-2 ACC): Brogdon will likely be matched against the Panthers’ best player, 6-5 small forward Lamar Patterson, unless Pittsburgh chooses to use a bigger body with 6-8 forward Akil Mitchell. Patterson has reached double figures in scoring in 19 consecutive games and is averaging a team-high 17.7 points, which ranks fourth in the conference. Talib Zanna had been a quality second option for the Panthers, reaching double figures in all eight conference games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The margin of victory in each of Virginia’s first seven ACC victories has been double digits for the first time in school history.... The Cavaliers and Panthers are meeting for the first time since 1990.... Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon is 33-12 in his career against current ACC teams.... The Cavaliers are 8-1 against the spread versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Panthers are 6-15 versus the spread in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the spread 563 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 437 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH won the game straight up 667 times, while VIRGINIA won 304 times. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the first half line 506 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--UVA is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--UVA is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--PITT is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--Over is 16-5 in PITT last 21 overall.
--Over is 20-7 in PITT last 27 home games.
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#811 MICHIGAN @ #812 INDIANA
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Michigan -1.5, Total: N/A) - Last season, Indiana and Michigan were among the elite teams in the nation, with the Hoosiers earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and the Wolverines advancing to the Final Four. However, this season has been a story of two teams heading in opposite directions and their paths collide Sunday when the 14th-ranked Wolverines visit the struggling Hoosiers. Michigan enters this matchup having won 10 straight games, while Indiana has lost three of its last four contests and five of its last eight overall.
The Wolverines have not lost since Dec. 14 - a two-point heartbreaker against No. 1 Arizona - but coach John Beilein still was not thrilled after Thursday's 75-66 win over Purdue. "The one thing I've learned first as a coach is that the only thing that can be really consistent is your defense, and it's not, and we're working on it," Beilein told reporters. "But if (the offensive consistency) keeps happening, I'll be happy as hell." Michigan continues to receive stellar play from Big Ten Player of the Year contender Nik Stauskas (18.4 points), who has shot at least 50 percent from the field in seven of his last eight games.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (16-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 8-0 Big Ten): Stauskas has been Michigan's best player this season, but fellow sophomore Caris LeVert has been tremendous in three of his last four games, including a stat line against Purdue that included 14 points, a career-high 11 rebounds, three steals, two assists and two blocks. On the other hand, Glenn Robinson III has endured dips in his shooting percentage (57.2 to 50) and 3-point percentage (32.4 to 28.1) since last season. But while Robinson is struggling from long range, Stauskas (45.9 percent), Zak Irvin (40.7) and Derrick Walton Jr. (40.4) have all emerged as reliable deep threats for the loaded Wolverines.
•ABOUT INDIANA (13-8 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 3-5 Big Ten): Hoosiers coach Tom Crean was not thrilled with freshman Noah Vonleh, who had as many turnovers (five) as shots attempted against Nebraska. “He had a tough night,” Crean told reporters after Thursday's 60-55 defeat. “He was out there, he worked hard. He wasn’t as emphatic and decisive with the ball as he needed to be. He got the ball, but it was one of those nights. He’s 18.” Vonleh is averaging 11.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on the season, although he has just 11 combined points over the last two games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Robinson, probably the Wolverines' best athlete, only has five blocks this season - four of which came against Minnesota on Jan. 2.... The Hoosiers, who reached 100 points three times in their first six games, are averaging just 56 during their recent 1-3 stretch.... Indiana F Will Sheehey has shot 6-of-23 over his last three games as he battles an ankle injury.... The Hoosiers are 36-71 against the spread versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Wolverines are 20-8 versus the spread when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 548 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 452 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN won the game straight up 570 times, while INDIANA won 399 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the first half line 500 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 19-9 against the spread versus MICHIGAN since 1997.
--INDIANA is 21-8 straight up against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--17 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--INDIANA is 14-12 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--17 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wolverines are 5-16-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--MICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 9-3-1 in MICH last 13 road games.
--IND is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--Under is 4-0 in IND last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in IND last 4 vs. Big Ten.
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#817 UCLA @ #818 OREGON ST
(TV: 2:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: UCLA -5, Total: N/A) - UCLA will try to continue its run of success against Oregon State when the Bruins travel to Corvallis for a Pac-12 game Sunday afternoon. The Bruins have won 14 of the last 15 against the Beavers and enter the weekend alone in second place in the Pac-12 after a two-point victory Thursday night against host Oregon. Oregon State also comes in following a narrow victory the same night, beating visiting USC by one point in overtime after Trojans point guard Pe’Shon Howard missed a free throw with one second left in the extra period.
Oregon State’s only other victory against the Bruins since New Year’s Eve in 2004 came two seasons ago in Corvallis, when Devon Collier scored 20 points in the 87-84 victory. Collier is one of three Beavers in their fourth season playing against the Bruins, joining leading scorer Roberto Nelson and starting center Angus Brandt. The only current players for UCLA who have experienced a loss to Oregon State are twin forwards Travis and David Wear, starting shooting guard Norman Powell and reserve guard David Brown.
•ABOUT UCLA (17-4 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 6-2 Pac-12): Kyle Anderson, the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Week, should be motivated to excel after enduring one of the worst games of his career in the win against Oregon. He handed out 10 assists but scored just six points on 1-for-8 shooting, nine below his current average, and committed a career-high nine turnovers, though a number of those giveaways were the result of poor hands by the pass recipient. Before that game, Anderson had not turned the ball over more than six times in his two seasons with the Bruins.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (12-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 4-4 Pac-12): Eric Moreland finished ninth in the nation in rebounding last season (10.6), but the 6-10 center isn’t polishing the glass at the same clip since coming off a 12-game suspension to start the season, averaging 8.5 boards. He combined for eight rebounds in back-to-back games against the Washington schools last week, then came back with 10 in the win against USC after grabbing two in overtime. The Bruins will be getting their first look at Moreland since the loss two years ago, as he was also suspended for last season’s game against UCLA for violating team rules.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oregon State owns its best record in conference play through eight games since also starting 4-4 in 1999.... Nelson has scored at least 20 points in six consecutive games, three off the school record held by three former players.... Anderson is shooting 18-for-36 from 3-point range this season after finishing 8-for-38 as a freshman last season.... The Bruins are 5-14 against the spread in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last three seasons.... The Beavers are 10-23 versus the spread in home games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 591 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 388 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCLA. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 730 times, while OREGON ST won 248 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 567 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 433 times. *EDGE against first half line =UCLA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCLA is 22-9 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--UCLA is 26-6 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UCLA is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON ST since 1997.
--11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bruins are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Bruins are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Oregon St.
--Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Oregon St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCLA is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.
--UCLA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 16-4-1 in UCLA last 21 road games.
--ORST is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
--ORST is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 6-1-1 in ORST last 8 games following a ATS loss.
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NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 2/2/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Sunday's Notebook
•Purdue's 65-64 (-7) win over Penn State 15 days ago was Boilermakers' 4th in row, 14th in last 18 games with PSU; they were down 3 with 1:11 left, but rallied to win. Nittany Lions won last two games since by total of 5 points, but lost last seven visits here, with five of seven losses by 14+ points- five of their last six games overall were decided by 4 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-5 versus spread.
•Home teams had won last nine USF-Cincinnati games until Bearcats won 61-54 (-7) in Tampa Jan 18. Bulls lost last six visits to Queen City, last three all by exactly 8 points. USF is 3-8 in last 11 games but upset SMU at home last game; they lost last two road games by 17-22 points after lone road win, at Temple. AAC double digit home favorites are 10-3 versus spread. Cincinnati won last 13 games, upset Louisville Thursday.
•Virginia is 7-1 in Atlantic Coast Conference with only loss by 4 at Duke when Blue Devils got couple lucky bounces in last 1:00; Cavaliers have three road wins in ACC, at FSU/NC State/ND- they allowed 56.3 ppg in winning last four games. Pittsburgh lost last home game to Duke, but won other three conference home games by 15+ points. Virginia leads league, forcing turnovers 23.3% of time. ACC favorites of 6 or less points are 5-13 versus spread.
•Milwaukee (+6) won 84-75 at Oakland Jan 8 after falling behind early in game 13-2; Panthers held Oakland to 3-25 from arc, overcoming -8 ratio in turnovers (17-9). Horizon League home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-12 versus spread. Grizzlies are 1-3 on Horizon road, with only win at 3-6 Detroit. Milwaukee lost three of last four games, are 2-3 in Horizon home games, upsetting Wright State Thursday, after losing previous three.
•Michigan is 8-0 in conference, with none of its four road wins by more than 7 points; Wolverines are 5-13 in last 18 games with Indiana, losing last four visits to Bloomington by 6-19-2-8 points. Big Dozen home underdogs are 7-8 versus spread, 0-3 if the number was less than 3 points. Indiana is 3-5 in conference play, 2-2 at home, beating Wisconsin/Illinois; six of its eight games in conference were decided by 7 or less points.
•Buffalo won seven of last nine games, is 5-2 in Mid-American Conference with two losses on road by total of 5 points; Bulls won three of last four games versus Bowling Green, but lost five of last seven visits to Stroh Center, losing 76-65 LY- they're 1-2 on MAC road, with only win at N. Illinois. MAC home underdogs are 4-6 versus spread. Falcons lost three of four conference games, losing by 5-9-5 points- their only home win was over #263 Central Michigan.
•William & Mary (-7.5) beat James Madison 78-56 Jan 18, making 10-20 on arc, scoring 1.32 ppp; win snapped 4-game skid versus James Madison, who allowed 52 ppg in winning last two games after starting Colonial Athletic Association play 1-4. Dukes are 1-2 at home in CAA, with both losses by 4. Tribe is 1-2 on conference road, with only win by hoop at Drexel. CAA home teams are 6-13 in games where spread was less than 5 points.
•UCLA won 14 of last 15 games with Oregon State, but lost last visit to Corvallis in '12, after winning previous six visits to Gill Coliseum. Bruins won five of last six games, are 2-1 on Pac-12 road, with wins by hoop at Oregon and at Colorado in first game after Dinwiddie got hurt. Beavers are 3-1 in its Pac-12 home games, with only loss by 5 to California. Pac-12 home underdogs of 3+ points are 8-4 against the spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- S FLORIDA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 53.5, OPPONENT 67.4.
-- S FLORIDA is 14-0 UNDER (+14.0 Units) after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 61.2, OPPONENT 57.8.
-- CINCINNATI is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 26.4, OPPONENT 28.4.
-- BOWLING GREEN is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOWLING GREEN 28.0, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- JOHN BEILEIN is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds as the coach of MICHIGAN.
The average score was BEILEIN 68.7, OPPONENT 63.5.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was BUFFALO 73.7, OPPONENT 64.4.
-- WM & MARY is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was WM & MARY 61.9, OPPONENT 62.4.
-- VIRGINIA is 16-4 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA 33.0, OPPONENT 25.2.
--S FLORIDA is 18-3 UNDER (+14.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 24.1, OPPONENT 27.8.
-- JAMIE DIXON is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=57 points/game as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
The average score was DIXON 33.1, OPPONENT 27.4.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JAMES MADISON) - a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.), revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a close road win by 3 points or less.
(37-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +28.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (36-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 63.3 (Average point differential = +4.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (30.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (77-56).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(69-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +38.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-59 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 70.1 (Average point differential = -2.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 35 (36.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (14-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-11).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (157-150).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points versus the first half line (CINCINNATI) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
(34-10 since 1997.) (77.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.6, Opponent 35 (Average first half point differential = -5.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#803 PURDUE @ #804 PENN ST
(TV: 11:30 AM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Penn State -3.5, Total: N/A) - Only three games separate third through 12th place in the Big Ten standings, and Penn State and visiting Purdue will be looking to make up ground when they meet Sunday in State College, Pa. The Nittany Lions still sit in last following their one-point overtime victory Wednesday at No. 23 Ohio State, ending an 18-game losing streak against the Buckeyes. The Boilermakers have lost three in a row, falling into a three-way tie for seventh with Ohio State and Indiana.
Penn State and Purdue are in their position mainly because they give up more points than the remaining Big Ten teams. One thing the Boilermakers do well is rebound as a team, ranking third in the conference behind Indiana and Iowa with five players averaging between 4.0 and 6.9 boards a game. The Nittany Lions have something Purdue doesn’t in D.J. Newbill, a proven scorer who averages 17.6 points, fourth most in the conference.
•ABOUT PURDUE (13-8 SU, 7-11-0 ATS, 3-5 Big Ten): A.J. Hammons was plagued by inconsistency last season, scoring two points against Michigan one week and a career-high 30 the next when both opponents were ranked No. 3 in the coaches’ poll. The 7-foot sophomore center seems to be finding more stable footing as this season unfolds, reaching double figures in scoring in six of eight conference games. Purdue's starting frontline consists of 6-9 forward Donovon Jack and 6-7 forward Brandon Taylor and neither averages more than five rebounds, so Hammons should have room to roam in the paint.
•ABOUT PENN STATE (11-10 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 2-6 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions can only wonder how things might be had last season’s third-leading scorer, Jermaine Marshall, not bolted for Arizona State, where he’s averaging 15 points as a senior graduate transfer. Penn State would have returned Newbill, its leading scorer from last season, and been joined by Tim Frazier, who averaged a team-high 18.8 points two years ago before rupturing his left Achilles tendon in the fourth game last season. Frazier has returned to full strength, averaging 16.1 points, 6.4 assists and 4.8 rebounds, ranking in the top three for Penn State in all three categories.
•PREGAME NOTES: Purdue is 4-0 this season when giving up more second-chance points than its opponent.... Purdue and Penn State are the top two teams in the conference in blocked shots.... Penn State has won back-to-back Big Ten games for the first time since the 2011-12 season.... The Boilermakers are 15-33 against the spread in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.... The Nittany Lions are 8-1 against the 1rst half line versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 577 times, while PURDUE covered the spread 423 times. *EDGE against the spread =PENN ST. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST won the game straight up 657 times, while PURDUE won 326 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 502 times, while PURDUE covered the first half line 459 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PURDUE is 17-13 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--PURDUE is 22-8 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--15 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PENN ST is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against PURDUE since 1997.
--14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 16-4 in the last 20 meetings.
--Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Penn St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PUR is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Under is 5-1 in PUR last 6 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 4-1 in PUR last 5 Sunday games.
--PSU is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big Ten.
--PSU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in PSU last 8 Sun. games.
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#805 S FLORIDA @ #806 CINCINNATI
(TV: Noon EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Cincinnati -14.5, Total: N/A) - It has been 22 years since Cincinnati reached the Final Four, but the 2013-14 Bearcats appear poised to make a deep run in March. Cincinnati, seeking its 14th straight victory, hosts South Florida on Sunday, three days after knocking off the defending NCAA champion and 15 days after winning on the Bulls' homecourt. Bearcats guard Sean Kilpatrick (19.5 points per game) is among the contenders for American Athletic Conference Player of the Year while fellow seniors Justin Jackson and Titus Robles combine to average 18.5 points and 13.4 rebounds.
“You can’t understand the fortitude of Titus, Justin and S.K.," Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin told reporters. "That’s why we have the record we have. You know what they say: In a fight, everybody’s tougher when they’ve got tough guys around them. And I’ve got three of the toughest guys in the country.” The Bearcats are coming off a quality road win against No. 7 Louisville while the Bulls defeated Southern Methodist to snap a four-game losing streak. “We want to use these couple days wisely and really prepare for Cincinnati,” South Florida coach Stan Heath told reporters after the win. “It could be a big, big game for us if we can find a way to get up there and pull it off.”
•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (11-10, 7-11-0 ATS, 2-6 AAC): The Bulls are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they shoot 26.2 percent as a group with only injured point guard Anthony Collins (38.9 percent) making more than a third of his attempts. Leading scorer Victor Rudd (14.7 points) has been particularly awful from behind the arc of late, knocking down just two of his 17 attempts over the last five games. If South Florida is going to have any shot to win this game, Heath needs more production out of Corey Allen Jr., who scored 18 points against SMU to bounce back from four straight poor outings, including a scoreless effort in the first matchup with the Bearcats.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (20-2, 10-6-0 ATS, 9-0 AAC): Kilpatrick, a 6-4 guard, has scored in double figures in 21 of the Bearcats' 22 games and has made multiple 3-pointers in each of the last five contests. Rubles is a stark contrast to Kilpatrick, not attempting a 3-pointer all season but rather doing his damage in the paint to the tune of 7.4 points and 6.4 boards. Jackson, who has battled through an ankle injury this week, hopes to duplicate his all-around effort against Louisville - 11 points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.
•PREGAME NOTES: Prior to its win over SMU, South Florida had faced three consecutive ranked opponents (Cincinnati, Louisville and Memphis) and did not reach 60 points against any of them.... Jackson has 73 blocks on the season while his teammates have combined for 61.... Cincinnati allowed 76 points to Temple and 66 to Louisville in its last two games after not allowing more than 62 during the first 11 games of its winning streak.... The Bearcats are 5-13 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the spread 605 times, while S FLORIDA covered the spread 395 times. *EDGE against the spread =CINCINNATI. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 898 times, while S FLORIDA won 84 times. In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 513 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S FLORIDA is 13-8 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 16-5 straight up against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--S FLORIDA is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulls are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Bulls are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USF is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Sun. games.
--Under is 49-20-1 in USF last 70 overall.
--Under is 41-17 in USF last 58 road games.
--CIN is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--CIN is 7-30 ATS in their last 37 Sun. games.
--Under is 7-1 in CIN last 8 Sun. games.
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#807 VIRGINIA @ #808 PITTSBURGH
(TV: 12:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: N/A) - Virginia can take a big step toward joining the Top 25 if the Cavaliers can win a road game Sunday against No. 17 Pittsburgh. The Panthers already lost by 15 points this week to No. 16 Duke, also on their home floor, and will likely need a win just to remain in the coaches’ poll. Of more importance to both teams is the ACC race, where Virginia heads into the weekend one game behind No. 2 Syracuse, one of three unbeaten teams remaining in Division I, and a game ahead of Pittsburgh and Duke.
The tough part for Pittsburgh will be figuring out how to score on the Cavaliers. They come in giving up an average of 56 points, which led the nation heading into the weekend, and haven’t surrendered more than 69 points in conference play. The Panthers enter 17th in the nation in scoring defense (61.1) and lead the ACC in field-goal percentage (48.5), assists (16.7) and rebounding margin (+8.5).
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (16-5 SU, 11-6-0 ATS, 7-1 ACC): The Cavaliers don’t have a player averaging 12 points or better, but sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon has surpassed his current team-leading scoring average (11.6) in the last seven games and has reached double figures in a season-high eight straight overall. Brogdon hasn’t just been scoring lately either, producing a season-best five steals while matching his season highs of seven rebounds and six assists in Tuesday’s 15-point win against Notre Dame. Brogdon is also a combined 6-for-9 from 3-point range in the last two games.
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (18-3 SU, 7-10-1 ATS, 6-2 ACC): Brogdon will likely be matched against the Panthers’ best player, 6-5 small forward Lamar Patterson, unless Pittsburgh chooses to use a bigger body with 6-8 forward Akil Mitchell. Patterson has reached double figures in scoring in 19 consecutive games and is averaging a team-high 17.7 points, which ranks fourth in the conference. Talib Zanna had been a quality second option for the Panthers, reaching double figures in all eight conference games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The margin of victory in each of Virginia’s first seven ACC victories has been double digits for the first time in school history.... The Cavaliers and Panthers are meeting for the first time since 1990.... Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon is 33-12 in his career against current ACC teams.... The Cavaliers are 8-1 against the spread versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Panthers are 6-15 versus the spread in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the spread 563 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 437 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH won the game straight up 667 times, while VIRGINIA won 304 times. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the first half line 506 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--UVA is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--UVA is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--PITT is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--Over is 16-5 in PITT last 21 overall.
--Over is 20-7 in PITT last 27 home games.
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#811 MICHIGAN @ #812 INDIANA
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Michigan -1.5, Total: N/A) - Last season, Indiana and Michigan were among the elite teams in the nation, with the Hoosiers earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and the Wolverines advancing to the Final Four. However, this season has been a story of two teams heading in opposite directions and their paths collide Sunday when the 14th-ranked Wolverines visit the struggling Hoosiers. Michigan enters this matchup having won 10 straight games, while Indiana has lost three of its last four contests and five of its last eight overall.
The Wolverines have not lost since Dec. 14 - a two-point heartbreaker against No. 1 Arizona - but coach John Beilein still was not thrilled after Thursday's 75-66 win over Purdue. "The one thing I've learned first as a coach is that the only thing that can be really consistent is your defense, and it's not, and we're working on it," Beilein told reporters. "But if (the offensive consistency) keeps happening, I'll be happy as hell." Michigan continues to receive stellar play from Big Ten Player of the Year contender Nik Stauskas (18.4 points), who has shot at least 50 percent from the field in seven of his last eight games.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (16-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 8-0 Big Ten): Stauskas has been Michigan's best player this season, but fellow sophomore Caris LeVert has been tremendous in three of his last four games, including a stat line against Purdue that included 14 points, a career-high 11 rebounds, three steals, two assists and two blocks. On the other hand, Glenn Robinson III has endured dips in his shooting percentage (57.2 to 50) and 3-point percentage (32.4 to 28.1) since last season. But while Robinson is struggling from long range, Stauskas (45.9 percent), Zak Irvin (40.7) and Derrick Walton Jr. (40.4) have all emerged as reliable deep threats for the loaded Wolverines.
•ABOUT INDIANA (13-8 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 3-5 Big Ten): Hoosiers coach Tom Crean was not thrilled with freshman Noah Vonleh, who had as many turnovers (five) as shots attempted against Nebraska. “He had a tough night,” Crean told reporters after Thursday's 60-55 defeat. “He was out there, he worked hard. He wasn’t as emphatic and decisive with the ball as he needed to be. He got the ball, but it was one of those nights. He’s 18.” Vonleh is averaging 11.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks on the season, although he has just 11 combined points over the last two games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Robinson, probably the Wolverines' best athlete, only has five blocks this season - four of which came against Minnesota on Jan. 2.... The Hoosiers, who reached 100 points three times in their first six games, are averaging just 56 during their recent 1-3 stretch.... Indiana F Will Sheehey has shot 6-of-23 over his last three games as he battles an ankle injury.... The Hoosiers are 36-71 against the spread versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Wolverines are 20-8 versus the spread when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 548 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 452 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN won the game straight up 570 times, while INDIANA won 399 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the first half line 500 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 19-9 against the spread versus MICHIGAN since 1997.
--INDIANA is 21-8 straight up against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--17 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--INDIANA is 14-12 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--17 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wolverines are 5-16-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--MICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 9-3-1 in MICH last 13 road games.
--IND is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--Under is 4-0 in IND last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in IND last 4 vs. Big Ten.
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#817 UCLA @ #818 OREGON ST
(TV: 2:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: UCLA -5, Total: N/A) - UCLA will try to continue its run of success against Oregon State when the Bruins travel to Corvallis for a Pac-12 game Sunday afternoon. The Bruins have won 14 of the last 15 against the Beavers and enter the weekend alone in second place in the Pac-12 after a two-point victory Thursday night against host Oregon. Oregon State also comes in following a narrow victory the same night, beating visiting USC by one point in overtime after Trojans point guard Pe’Shon Howard missed a free throw with one second left in the extra period.
Oregon State’s only other victory against the Bruins since New Year’s Eve in 2004 came two seasons ago in Corvallis, when Devon Collier scored 20 points in the 87-84 victory. Collier is one of three Beavers in their fourth season playing against the Bruins, joining leading scorer Roberto Nelson and starting center Angus Brandt. The only current players for UCLA who have experienced a loss to Oregon State are twin forwards Travis and David Wear, starting shooting guard Norman Powell and reserve guard David Brown.
•ABOUT UCLA (17-4 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 6-2 Pac-12): Kyle Anderson, the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Week, should be motivated to excel after enduring one of the worst games of his career in the win against Oregon. He handed out 10 assists but scored just six points on 1-for-8 shooting, nine below his current average, and committed a career-high nine turnovers, though a number of those giveaways were the result of poor hands by the pass recipient. Before that game, Anderson had not turned the ball over more than six times in his two seasons with the Bruins.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (12-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 4-4 Pac-12): Eric Moreland finished ninth in the nation in rebounding last season (10.6), but the 6-10 center isn’t polishing the glass at the same clip since coming off a 12-game suspension to start the season, averaging 8.5 boards. He combined for eight rebounds in back-to-back games against the Washington schools last week, then came back with 10 in the win against USC after grabbing two in overtime. The Bruins will be getting their first look at Moreland since the loss two years ago, as he was also suspended for last season’s game against UCLA for violating team rules.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oregon State owns its best record in conference play through eight games since also starting 4-4 in 1999.... Nelson has scored at least 20 points in six consecutive games, three off the school record held by three former players.... Anderson is shooting 18-for-36 from 3-point range this season after finishing 8-for-38 as a freshman last season.... The Bruins are 5-14 against the spread in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last three seasons.... The Beavers are 10-23 versus the spread in home games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 591 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 388 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCLA. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 730 times, while OREGON ST won 248 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 567 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 433 times. *EDGE against first half line =UCLA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCLA is 22-9 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--UCLA is 26-6 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UCLA is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON ST since 1997.
--11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bruins are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Bruins are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Oregon St.
--Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Oregon St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCLA is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.
--UCLA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 16-4-1 in UCLA last 21 road games.
--ORST is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
--ORST is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 6-1-1 in ORST last 8 games following a ATS loss.
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Dwayne Bryant | NFL Side Sun, 02/02/14 - 6:30 PM غ
triple-dime bet 101 SEA 2.5 (-110) Hilton vs 102 DEN Analysis:
3 Units (MAX BET)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2.5
Analysis coming up.
PROP BETS (1 Unit each)
[177] Russell Wilson Rushing Yards: Over 31.5 -115
[219] Wes Welker pass receptions: Over 5.5 -105
[262] Total punts: Under 9 -130
[4103] Seattle penalized 1st for pass interference: Seattle -135
[5025] Russell Wilson Longest Rush: Over 12.5 yards -110
triple-dime bet 101 SEA 2.5 (-110) Hilton vs 102 DEN Analysis:
3 Units (MAX BET)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2.5
Analysis coming up.
PROP BETS (1 Unit each)
[177] Russell Wilson Rushing Yards: Over 31.5 -115
[219] Wes Welker pass receptions: Over 5.5 -105
[262] Total punts: Under 9 -130
[4103] Seattle penalized 1st for pass interference: Seattle -135
[5025] Russell Wilson Longest Rush: Over 12.5 yards -110
Found this: SUPER BOWL Sunday 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner.
And this: YOU'LL know which way to go after reading our writeup and analysis for King's SUPER BOWLSunday 4**** Best Bet OVER / UNDER Winner.
Seems confused. No mention of GOY though.
What's awesome is 3* going for $30 and 4* for $50.
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Winning Angle Football
Sunday
Play Seattle +2.5 over Denver (NFL) 6:30 PM EST
Seattle has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games when playing as an underdog and they have also covered the spread in 16 of the last 21 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points. Seattle has covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 games coming off four or more UNDER the totals and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games coming off a home win.
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SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION PLAYS
Play TAILS on the coin toss
Play Seattle to score 1st in the game +110
Play Marshawn Lynch to score 1st TD of the game +450
Play Doug Baldwin to score 1st TD of the game +1200
Play Percy Harvin to score 1st TD of the game +1000
Play Golden Tate to score 1st TD of the game +1000
Play Seattle to get 1st Interception in the game -130
Play YES to a defensive or special teams TD in the game +155
Play UNDER 2 TD Passes for Peyton Manning in the game
Play UNDER 38.5 yards for longest pass by Peyton Manning
Play UNDER 92.5 rushing yards by Denver in the game
Play UNDER 60.5 rushing yards for Knowshown Moreno in the game
Play UNDER 34.5 rushing yards for Montee Ball in the game
Play Denver to score NO Touchdowns in the game 40-1
Play OVER 90.5 rushing yards for Marshawn Lynch in the game
Play OVER 18 yards for longest rush by Marshawn Lynch
Play OVER 212.5 passing yards for Russell Wilson in the game
Play OVER 32.5 rushing yards for Russell Wilson in the game
Play Seattle to win the game by 7 to 12 points +500
Play Seattle to win the game by 13 to 18 points +800
Play Russell Wilson to win MVP of the Super Bowl +350
Play Marshawn Lynch to win MVP of the Super Bowl +450
Sunday
Play Seattle +2.5 over Denver (NFL) 6:30 PM EST
Seattle has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games when playing as an underdog and they have also covered the spread in 16 of the last 21 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points. Seattle has covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 games coming off four or more UNDER the totals and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games coming off a home win.
==================================================
SUPER BOWL PROPOSITION PLAYS
Play TAILS on the coin toss
Play Seattle to score 1st in the game +110
Play Marshawn Lynch to score 1st TD of the game +450
Play Doug Baldwin to score 1st TD of the game +1200
Play Percy Harvin to score 1st TD of the game +1000
Play Golden Tate to score 1st TD of the game +1000
Play Seattle to get 1st Interception in the game -130
Play YES to a defensive or special teams TD in the game +155
Play UNDER 2 TD Passes for Peyton Manning in the game
Play UNDER 38.5 yards for longest pass by Peyton Manning
Play UNDER 92.5 rushing yards by Denver in the game
Play UNDER 60.5 rushing yards for Knowshown Moreno in the game
Play UNDER 34.5 rushing yards for Montee Ball in the game
Play Denver to score NO Touchdowns in the game 40-1
Play OVER 90.5 rushing yards for Marshawn Lynch in the game
Play OVER 18 yards for longest rush by Marshawn Lynch
Play OVER 212.5 passing yards for Russell Wilson in the game
Play OVER 32.5 rushing yards for Russell Wilson in the game
Play Seattle to win the game by 7 to 12 points +500
Play Seattle to win the game by 13 to 18 points +800
Play Russell Wilson to win MVP of the Super Bowl +350
Play Marshawn Lynch to win MVP of the Super Bowl +450
