SportsWagers NFL
Tennessee @ PITTSBURGH
Tennessee +6½ -103 over PITTSBURGH
We’re not even convinced that the Steelers are the better team here. They’re the more popular team by a landslide but they’re now without Heath Miller, Mike Wallace and their new star RB, Le'Veon Bell is out. The Steelers offense completely lost their punch. This is a team that did not score more than 27 points in any game last season and they’re certainly no better this season. Ben Roethlisberger had another down year in 2012 when he suffered a shoulder and rib injury. He also had a knee scope done in the offseason. Big Ben is not getting better, he’s not getting younger and he doesn’t have the same weapons he’s had in the past. When Mike Tomlin took over this team, they were hard-nosed and they were good. Poor drafting, a brutal offensive line, no running game and a deteriorating roster puts the Steelers in the same class as a lot of below .500 teams.
The third season of HC Mike Munchak is under way and still they want to see Jake Locker become the quarterback they thought they were drafting in the first round of 2011. Locker has only played in 16 games over those two seasons thanks to a shoulder injury last year. This is clearly Munchak's team by now and reports are that Locker had a very good camp. The Titans have upgraded in several areas including the offensive line and receivers and they also have a guy named Chris Johnson running the ball. Chris Johnson set himself up to be disappointing after rushing for 2006 yards in just his second season. The reality is that he has been above 4.0 yards per carry each season and has never rushed for fewer than 1047 yards. He gained 1243 in 2012 along with 232 more yards as a receiver and Tennessee has a very capable #2 running back in Shonn Greene. Tennessee’s defense is pretty much unchanged from a year ago but they don’t have a lot of offense to deal with here. This one is likely going to be a street-fight that comes down to the wire. We’re calling the Titans to win outright but these ridiculous points being offered are simply too juicy to pass up on.
Our Pick
Tennessee +6½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
Kansas City @ JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE +4 +100 over Kansas City
The Jaguars are projected to be horrible. They have no fans and they are the least followed team in the NFL by a wide margin. Jacksonville is also coming off a 2-14 season. In the June draft, when it was Jacksonville’s turn on the clock, everyone went to their fridge or the bathroom. Nobody cares about this team and nobody talks about them. The players know it and they’ll come into this season with a chip on their shoulder in much the same way the Phoenix Coyotes of the NHL did two years ago when they were expected to move elsewhere and written off for dead before the season even started. Jacksonville is in that same boat. The Jags hired Gus Bradley as head coach after he ran the Seattle defense for the last four seasons. The offense will be run by Jedd Fisch who coached with the Seahawks when he met Bradley and who comes off running innovative offenses in college. His last job was running the University of Miami's offense for the last two years. Fisch inherits a group of players who might actually have more talent than we could know so far and his challenge will be turning high draft picks from the last couple of seasons into productive players. Blaine Gabbert is back for his third season. He missed six games last year with a nerve problem in his arm and was outplayed by journeyman Chad Henne. Gabbert is no lock to get the start here because of an injured thumb but if he can’t go, Chad Henne will and there is not a lot that separates the two anyway. Maurice Jones-Drew comes off a terrible season where he held out then showed up with his tail between his legs and nothing to show for it. And MJD then struggled for a few weeks before getting a Lis Franc injury that cut his season off at week seven. But Jones was a top five back for the three previous seasons and at the age of 28 he still has plenty in the tank. His rehab has gone well and he is expected to be 100% for this first game of the year. How he fits into the new offense is not really an issue - he is by far the best weapon of the offense and he's playing for a major payday next year somewhere else so motivation or lack thereof will not be a factor.
The Chiefs are getting a lot of hype with three Pro Bowl linebackers and a Pro Bowl safety in the forms of Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson and safety Eric Berry. They have a stud RB in Jamaal Charles and they also have a proven head coach in Andy Reid and an experienced QB in Alex Smith. On paper it all looks pretty but Kansas City also went 2-14 last season. The Chiefs had the worst QB and WR stats in the entire league in 2012 so how this all meshes is pure speculation. These are two very bad teams looking to bounce back to respectability using all new coaches. It is premature to rely on Alex Smith against a defense that only allowed seven passing touchdowns to visitors last year. It’s also premature to label Reid as the teams’ savior. Reid had mega talent in Philadelphia for years and couldn’t do a damn thing with it. Pro sports history is lined with teams that were projected to challenge for a championship after making significant upgrades in the off-season but did not come close to meeting expectations. This year’s Toronto Blue Jays and Anaheim Angels come to mind, as does the L.A. Lakers and numerous others over the years. The Kansas City Chiefs have that hype surrounding them and even though it’s just Week 1, it’s a sell-high opportunity. Alex Smith is adequate, nothing more. Andy Reid is old-school and old-school coaches rarely do well anymore. Practically the entire betting world is on the Chiefs here and that’s another huge red flag. The oddsmakers were very aware that putting out a small number (line opened at -3) would attract a ton of Kansas City money and it did just that and will attract more. The oddsmakers could have put out a -6 here and not sway a single bet but they didn’t. They made the Chiefs a small, enticing favorite and the public is eating it up. We urge you not to follow suit. This is the trap of the day.
Our Pick
JACKSONVILLE +4 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
They are also on Buffalo +10 (write up on page 1)
Tennessee +6½ -103 over PITTSBURGH
We’re not even convinced that the Steelers are the better team here. They’re the more popular team by a landslide but they’re now without Heath Miller, Mike Wallace and their new star RB, Le'Veon Bell is out. The Steelers offense completely lost their punch. This is a team that did not score more than 27 points in any game last season and they’re certainly no better this season. Ben Roethlisberger had another down year in 2012 when he suffered a shoulder and rib injury. He also had a knee scope done in the offseason. Big Ben is not getting better, he’s not getting younger and he doesn’t have the same weapons he’s had in the past. When Mike Tomlin took over this team, they were hard-nosed and they were good. Poor drafting, a brutal offensive line, no running game and a deteriorating roster puts the Steelers in the same class as a lot of below .500 teams.
The third season of HC Mike Munchak is under way and still they want to see Jake Locker become the quarterback they thought they were drafting in the first round of 2011. Locker has only played in 16 games over those two seasons thanks to a shoulder injury last year. This is clearly Munchak's team by now and reports are that Locker had a very good camp. The Titans have upgraded in several areas including the offensive line and receivers and they also have a guy named Chris Johnson running the ball. Chris Johnson set himself up to be disappointing after rushing for 2006 yards in just his second season. The reality is that he has been above 4.0 yards per carry each season and has never rushed for fewer than 1047 yards. He gained 1243 in 2012 along with 232 more yards as a receiver and Tennessee has a very capable #2 running back in Shonn Greene. Tennessee’s defense is pretty much unchanged from a year ago but they don’t have a lot of offense to deal with here. This one is likely going to be a street-fight that comes down to the wire. We’re calling the Titans to win outright but these ridiculous points being offered are simply too juicy to pass up on.
Our Pick
Tennessee +6½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
JACKSONVILLE +4 +100 over Kansas City
The Jaguars are projected to be horrible. They have no fans and they are the least followed team in the NFL by a wide margin. Jacksonville is also coming off a 2-14 season. In the June draft, when it was Jacksonville’s turn on the clock, everyone went to their fridge or the bathroom. Nobody cares about this team and nobody talks about them. The players know it and they’ll come into this season with a chip on their shoulder in much the same way the Phoenix Coyotes of the NHL did two years ago when they were expected to move elsewhere and written off for dead before the season even started. Jacksonville is in that same boat. The Jags hired Gus Bradley as head coach after he ran the Seattle defense for the last four seasons. The offense will be run by Jedd Fisch who coached with the Seahawks when he met Bradley and who comes off running innovative offenses in college. His last job was running the University of Miami's offense for the last two years. Fisch inherits a group of players who might actually have more talent than we could know so far and his challenge will be turning high draft picks from the last couple of seasons into productive players. Blaine Gabbert is back for his third season. He missed six games last year with a nerve problem in his arm and was outplayed by journeyman Chad Henne. Gabbert is no lock to get the start here because of an injured thumb but if he can’t go, Chad Henne will and there is not a lot that separates the two anyway. Maurice Jones-Drew comes off a terrible season where he held out then showed up with his tail between his legs and nothing to show for it. And MJD then struggled for a few weeks before getting a Lis Franc injury that cut his season off at week seven. But Jones was a top five back for the three previous seasons and at the age of 28 he still has plenty in the tank. His rehab has gone well and he is expected to be 100% for this first game of the year. How he fits into the new offense is not really an issue - he is by far the best weapon of the offense and he's playing for a major payday next year somewhere else so motivation or lack thereof will not be a factor.
The Chiefs are getting a lot of hype with three Pro Bowl linebackers and a Pro Bowl safety in the forms of Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson and safety Eric Berry. They have a stud RB in Jamaal Charles and they also have a proven head coach in Andy Reid and an experienced QB in Alex Smith. On paper it all looks pretty but Kansas City also went 2-14 last season. The Chiefs had the worst QB and WR stats in the entire league in 2012 so how this all meshes is pure speculation. These are two very bad teams looking to bounce back to respectability using all new coaches. It is premature to rely on Alex Smith against a defense that only allowed seven passing touchdowns to visitors last year. It’s also premature to label Reid as the teams’ savior. Reid had mega talent in Philadelphia for years and couldn’t do a damn thing with it. Pro sports history is lined with teams that were projected to challenge for a championship after making significant upgrades in the off-season but did not come close to meeting expectations. This year’s Toronto Blue Jays and Anaheim Angels come to mind, as does the L.A. Lakers and numerous others over the years. The Kansas City Chiefs have that hype surrounding them and even though it’s just Week 1, it’s a sell-high opportunity. Alex Smith is adequate, nothing more. Andy Reid is old-school and old-school coaches rarely do well anymore. Practically the entire betting world is on the Chiefs here and that’s another huge red flag. The oddsmakers were very aware that putting out a small number (line opened at -3) would attract a ton of Kansas City money and it did just that and will attract more. The oddsmakers could have put out a -6 here and not sway a single bet but they didn’t. They made the Chiefs a small, enticing favorite and the public is eating it up. We urge you not to follow suit. This is the trap of the day.
Our Pick
JACKSONVILLE +4 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| Season to Date | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +4.18 |
They are also on Buffalo +10 (write up on page 1)
