Notes on The Blazin' 5 - Wiseguys agree on Cincy pick and Titans pick(also low scoring game), feel Tampa is a trap with 90% of public on TB, Wiseguys slightly agree on Cleve, Strongest agreement of the week is Carolina and the points vs Seattle(west coast team, SF next week). Hit at 70% on games they agree with each other last year!
SportsWagers NFL
New England @ BUFFALO
BUFFALO +10 -110 over New England
We’re always on the lookout for popular, overpriced teams and that comes into play here. This line is based on pedigree, history and the popularity of the Patriots. Oddsmakers have all the data to see which way the bettors lean in the first few weeks of the season and that luxury allows them to inflate lines. This line is inflated because the Patriots swept the Bills last year while scoring a ton of points. They won 52-38 in Buffalo and later 37-31 at home. The Patriots have won nine of the last ten match-ups and there is little they enjoy more than beating up the Bills. Add in a desire to show the world that Tom Brady is just fine and most assume this will be another beat-down. We see it differently. The Patriots have many sore issues. Aaron Hernandez has gone from tight end to ending his career with a bullet. Rob Gronkowski is injured. Wes Welker had a tiff with Bill Belichick and left for the Broncos. Basically about 85% of the receptions from last year are on the sideline or just plain gone. That leaves undrafted Zach Sudfeld to be the primary tight end this week. Sudfeld is the man until Gronk returns assuming Brady still uses tight ends the same. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and he’s still likely going to put up some points here. It sure doesn’t hurt that the Pats running game with Stevan Ridley carrying the load, could rack up yards here. Still, with so many new faces for Brady to throw to, it’s not going to be as easy in the past. New England’s defense was ranked 24th out of 32 teams last year. That was against a rather easy schedule that saw the Pats play Jacksonville, St. Louis, Miami twice, the Jets twice, Buffalo twice, Arizona and Tennessee. They have done little to upgrade and that’s a serious problem. When you’re laying this type of lumber on the road, only a 20-point lead or better will feel comfortable.
Buffalo’s defense was shredded quite a bit last season but they still allowed fewer yards per game than the Patriots. That was with an offense that could not produce and that meant the defense was on the field far too often. This year, the Bills offense has weapons. E.J. Manuel is fearless and talented. He’s still a rookie and he’s almost guaranteed to make some mistakes but he will not get flustered and he won’t be overwhelmed by this stage. The Bills are headed in the right direction with a team stocked with young talent. The Bills brought in new head coach Doug Marrone and his offense coordinator both from Syracuse. Marrone was the original architect of the Saints prolific offense and seeks to install that sort of scheme with the Bills. C.J. Spiller enters his fourth NFL season and finally had a breakout in 2012 when he ran for 1244 yards and added 43 catches for 459 yards and a total of eight touchdowns. He ended the year on a very high note and the new regime of Marrone has claimed they want to use him as a workhorse back who also receives. Steve Johnson has been a solid 1000 yard receiver for each of the last three seasons. The Bills also added 2.09 pick Robert Woods from USC as the #2 and 3.16 pick for Marquise Goodwin to compete with T.J. Graham as the #3 wideout. The Bills spent big money in the NFL draft for three impact offensive players and that will pay dividends. Woods has already impressed enough to secure the #2 spot. If Doug Marrone still has any New Orleans left in him, here is where the benefit will be felt. Aside from QB, Buffalo has better or equal talent in all the skilled offensive positions. They are not going to lay down here. The Bills have a new outlook, new coaches and plenty of optimism to pull off this upset or at the very least stay well within this range.
Our Pick
BUFFALO +10 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
BUFFALO +10 -110 over New England
We’re always on the lookout for popular, overpriced teams and that comes into play here. This line is based on pedigree, history and the popularity of the Patriots. Oddsmakers have all the data to see which way the bettors lean in the first few weeks of the season and that luxury allows them to inflate lines. This line is inflated because the Patriots swept the Bills last year while scoring a ton of points. They won 52-38 in Buffalo and later 37-31 at home. The Patriots have won nine of the last ten match-ups and there is little they enjoy more than beating up the Bills. Add in a desire to show the world that Tom Brady is just fine and most assume this will be another beat-down. We see it differently. The Patriots have many sore issues. Aaron Hernandez has gone from tight end to ending his career with a bullet. Rob Gronkowski is injured. Wes Welker had a tiff with Bill Belichick and left for the Broncos. Basically about 85% of the receptions from last year are on the sideline or just plain gone. That leaves undrafted Zach Sudfeld to be the primary tight end this week. Sudfeld is the man until Gronk returns assuming Brady still uses tight ends the same. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and he’s still likely going to put up some points here. It sure doesn’t hurt that the Pats running game with Stevan Ridley carrying the load, could rack up yards here. Still, with so many new faces for Brady to throw to, it’s not going to be as easy in the past. New England’s defense was ranked 24th out of 32 teams last year. That was against a rather easy schedule that saw the Pats play Jacksonville, St. Louis, Miami twice, the Jets twice, Buffalo twice, Arizona and Tennessee. They have done little to upgrade and that’s a serious problem. When you’re laying this type of lumber on the road, only a 20-point lead or better will feel comfortable.
Buffalo’s defense was shredded quite a bit last season but they still allowed fewer yards per game than the Patriots. That was with an offense that could not produce and that meant the defense was on the field far too often. This year, the Bills offense has weapons. E.J. Manuel is fearless and talented. He’s still a rookie and he’s almost guaranteed to make some mistakes but he will not get flustered and he won’t be overwhelmed by this stage. The Bills are headed in the right direction with a team stocked with young talent. The Bills brought in new head coach Doug Marrone and his offense coordinator both from Syracuse. Marrone was the original architect of the Saints prolific offense and seeks to install that sort of scheme with the Bills. C.J. Spiller enters his fourth NFL season and finally had a breakout in 2012 when he ran for 1244 yards and added 43 catches for 459 yards and a total of eight touchdowns. He ended the year on a very high note and the new regime of Marrone has claimed they want to use him as a workhorse back who also receives. Steve Johnson has been a solid 1000 yard receiver for each of the last three seasons. The Bills also added 2.09 pick Robert Woods from USC as the #2 and 3.16 pick for Marquise Goodwin to compete with T.J. Graham as the #3 wideout. The Bills spent big money in the NFL draft for three impact offensive players and that will pay dividends. Woods has already impressed enough to secure the #2 spot. If Doug Marrone still has any New Orleans left in him, here is where the benefit will be felt. Aside from QB, Buffalo has better or equal talent in all the skilled offensive positions. They are not going to lay down here. The Bills have a new outlook, new coaches and plenty of optimism to pull off this upset or at the very least stay well within this range.
Our Pick
BUFFALO +10 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.18 |
| Last 30 Days | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +4.18 |
| Season to Date | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +4.18 |
[h=1]Colin can land a touch[/h]
[h=2]David John believes Colin Kaepernick can live up to the hype as he previews the weekend's action in the NFL.[/h]
Colin Kaepernick: Rates a bet this weekend
Atlanta could be set for a close encounter with New Orleans while second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick looks set for a big season and David believes he's worth backing to score a touchdown.
Atlanta at New Orleans (1800BST)
The Saints are one of our outright picks for the Super Bowl next February and are hosting NFC South rivals Atlanta in a fascinating opening encounter for a team that welcomes back head coach Sean Payton after a year's hiatus.
Payton was one of the coaching staff punished for their involvement in Bountygate as the NFL served up a lengthy suspension. The Saints slumped to a losing 7-9 record and the return one of the league's best offensive playcallers means some cause for optimism in the Big Easy.
The excitement is palpable but Payton has been at pains to try and deflect some focus from his comeback and insists - rightly - that football still comes down to the fundamentals of passing, blocking and tackling.
That said, quarterback Drew Brees is sure to have an extra spring in his step with his old ally back on the sidelines as the pair look to boost their 10-2 record together against the visitors.
It is the other side of the ball that is a concern with Rob Ryan now taking over as co-ordinator on a unit that set new records for ineptitude last season. It is hoped that the players buy into both his charisma and new 3-4 scheme quickly - they lack any real star quality and that has been shorn further with linebacker Jonathan Vilma out for the opening weeks of the season due to persistent knee trouble.
So unless there is an instant turnaround in that department, the Falcons will be optimistic of some success in this game themselves considering they have a dynamic wide receiver combination in Roddy White and Julio Jones while record-breaking veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez has agreed to shelve retirement plans for at least one more season.
Steven Jackson arrives from St Louis to be the feature running back in place of the regressive Mike Turner and although Jackson has plenty of miles on the clock, he should provide an upgrade at the position.
The Falcons were the NFC's number one seeds last year after their 13-3 record and they only came up a game shy of the Super Bowl so clearly have a little less to prove than the hosts in terms of this fixture.
But I don't underestimate the influence of Payton's return for one second and there is little doubt the Saints' offense with Brees, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles can paper over plenty of the cracks they may have in the early stages on defense.
Seven out of 10 meetings between these two have gone down to the last possession. Splitting the two teams is not easy so with that in mind we might be able to eke out a little bit of profit by backing both to come out on top by a narrow margin.
Verdict: Atlanta 23 New Orleans 27
Green Bay at San Francisco (2125BST)
Like Baltimore's game with Denver on Thursday night, this is a rematch from last season's play-offs which the 49ers won 45-31.
On that January night in the Bay area, second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick truly came of age having been handed the starting job part-way through the regular campaign after Alex Smith went down with a concussion.
Kaepernick's athleticism saw him gallop all around Candlestick Park for a record 181 yards with Green Bay's defense grasping at shadows as he ran the game and ultimately guided his team to a mammoth 579 yards of offense in total on the night.
Kaepernick's performance will be key as the two teams lock horns again. Green Bay have spent a good deal of the summer preparing for the 'read option' offense that both the 49ers and week two rivals Washington run. They have even sent coaching staff down to college Texas A&M to get some of the lowdown on what looks they may see in the 49ers formations.
Their plan is try to unsettle CK often and early and with players like linebacker Clay Matthews they have the personnel to at least contain him and minimise the damage he can do with his legs.
"I would like to think that we are better prepared," Matthews revealed.
That said, head coach Jim Harbaugh may allow Kaepernick the chance to open up the playbook a little more in the passing game as he is not just a one dimensional player - he possesses an elite arm at this level well capable of beating defenses.
He is without favourite target Michael Crabtree this season due to a torn Achilles so his chemistry with new arrival and veteran Anquan Bolding and the relatively untested Kyle Williams will be something to monitor.
The Packers offense behind Aaron Rodgers did manage to put 31 points on the board here when they last met but it is likely they will have their work cut out against a consistently hard-nosed defense.
One or two names may have departed but this is a unit who has some elite performers - Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman and Justin Smith to name a few - and has featured among the best when it comes to defensive statistics over the past couple of years.
It will be up to Rodgers then to try and put his stamp on the game when he is on the field. He should have an extra dimension to help after they drafted running back Eddie Lacy in April - he gives his new employers a tough, between-the-tackles rusher who had over 1,300 yards in his final season in college at BCS champions Alabama.
However, he is up against a defense that has allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns in two seasons while Rodgers will have his fingers crossed that the line in front of him stands up a bit better, particularly with rookie David Bakhtiari guarding his blind side - he took 51 sacks last season.
The 49ers are favourites by 4.5pts but this is all about Kaepernick. The Packers claim to be more ready for him but it may still not be enough - an odds-against quote for him scoring a touchdown is worth an investment.
Verdict: Green Bay 21 San Francisco 27
Weekend Verdicts:
Cincinnati 21 Chicago 18
Kansas City 16 Jacksonville 12
Miami 16 Cleveland 20
Minnesota 14 Detroit 21
New England 28 Buffalo 16
Oakland 3 Indianapolis 17
Seattle 21 Carolina 24
Tampa Bay 17 NY Jets 10
Tennessee 10 Pittsburgh 24
Arizona 14 St Louis 17
NY Giants 16 Dallas 20
Philadelphia 21 Washington 16
Houston 18 San Diego 21
- By: David John
- Last Updated: September 6 2013, 15:28 BST
[h=2]David John believes Colin Kaepernick can live up to the hype as he previews the weekend's action in the NFL.[/h]
Colin Kaepernick: Rates a bet this weekend
Atlanta could be set for a close encounter with New Orleans while second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick looks set for a big season and David believes he's worth backing to score a touchdown.
-
1pt New Orleans to beat Atlanta by 1-6 points at 7/2 (general); 1pt Atlanta to beat New Orleans by 1-6 points at 4/1 (general) - Renowned for a close encounter and could go either way at this stage of the season.
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2pts Colin Kaepernick to score a TD at anytime v Green Bay at 11/10 (bet365) - Worth believing the hype for the time being and likely to be a big scoring threat.
Atlanta at New Orleans (1800BST)
The Saints are one of our outright picks for the Super Bowl next February and are hosting NFC South rivals Atlanta in a fascinating opening encounter for a team that welcomes back head coach Sean Payton after a year's hiatus.
Payton was one of the coaching staff punished for their involvement in Bountygate as the NFL served up a lengthy suspension. The Saints slumped to a losing 7-9 record and the return one of the league's best offensive playcallers means some cause for optimism in the Big Easy.
The excitement is palpable but Payton has been at pains to try and deflect some focus from his comeback and insists - rightly - that football still comes down to the fundamentals of passing, blocking and tackling.
That said, quarterback Drew Brees is sure to have an extra spring in his step with his old ally back on the sidelines as the pair look to boost their 10-2 record together against the visitors.
It is the other side of the ball that is a concern with Rob Ryan now taking over as co-ordinator on a unit that set new records for ineptitude last season. It is hoped that the players buy into both his charisma and new 3-4 scheme quickly - they lack any real star quality and that has been shorn further with linebacker Jonathan Vilma out for the opening weeks of the season due to persistent knee trouble.
So unless there is an instant turnaround in that department, the Falcons will be optimistic of some success in this game themselves considering they have a dynamic wide receiver combination in Roddy White and Julio Jones while record-breaking veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez has agreed to shelve retirement plans for at least one more season.
Steven Jackson arrives from St Louis to be the feature running back in place of the regressive Mike Turner and although Jackson has plenty of miles on the clock, he should provide an upgrade at the position.
The Falcons were the NFC's number one seeds last year after their 13-3 record and they only came up a game shy of the Super Bowl so clearly have a little less to prove than the hosts in terms of this fixture.
But I don't underestimate the influence of Payton's return for one second and there is little doubt the Saints' offense with Brees, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles can paper over plenty of the cracks they may have in the early stages on defense.
Seven out of 10 meetings between these two have gone down to the last possession. Splitting the two teams is not easy so with that in mind we might be able to eke out a little bit of profit by backing both to come out on top by a narrow margin.
Verdict: Atlanta 23 New Orleans 27
Green Bay at San Francisco (2125BST)
Like Baltimore's game with Denver on Thursday night, this is a rematch from last season's play-offs which the 49ers won 45-31.
On that January night in the Bay area, second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick truly came of age having been handed the starting job part-way through the regular campaign after Alex Smith went down with a concussion.
Kaepernick's athleticism saw him gallop all around Candlestick Park for a record 181 yards with Green Bay's defense grasping at shadows as he ran the game and ultimately guided his team to a mammoth 579 yards of offense in total on the night.
Kaepernick's performance will be key as the two teams lock horns again. Green Bay have spent a good deal of the summer preparing for the 'read option' offense that both the 49ers and week two rivals Washington run. They have even sent coaching staff down to college Texas A&M to get some of the lowdown on what looks they may see in the 49ers formations.
Their plan is try to unsettle CK often and early and with players like linebacker Clay Matthews they have the personnel to at least contain him and minimise the damage he can do with his legs.
"I would like to think that we are better prepared," Matthews revealed.
That said, head coach Jim Harbaugh may allow Kaepernick the chance to open up the playbook a little more in the passing game as he is not just a one dimensional player - he possesses an elite arm at this level well capable of beating defenses.
He is without favourite target Michael Crabtree this season due to a torn Achilles so his chemistry with new arrival and veteran Anquan Bolding and the relatively untested Kyle Williams will be something to monitor.
The Packers offense behind Aaron Rodgers did manage to put 31 points on the board here when they last met but it is likely they will have their work cut out against a consistently hard-nosed defense.
One or two names may have departed but this is a unit who has some elite performers - Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman and Justin Smith to name a few - and has featured among the best when it comes to defensive statistics over the past couple of years.
It will be up to Rodgers then to try and put his stamp on the game when he is on the field. He should have an extra dimension to help after they drafted running back Eddie Lacy in April - he gives his new employers a tough, between-the-tackles rusher who had over 1,300 yards in his final season in college at BCS champions Alabama.
However, he is up against a defense that has allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns in two seasons while Rodgers will have his fingers crossed that the line in front of him stands up a bit better, particularly with rookie David Bakhtiari guarding his blind side - he took 51 sacks last season.
The 49ers are favourites by 4.5pts but this is all about Kaepernick. The Packers claim to be more ready for him but it may still not be enough - an odds-against quote for him scoring a touchdown is worth an investment.
Verdict: Green Bay 21 San Francisco 27
Weekend Verdicts:
Cincinnati 21 Chicago 18
Kansas City 16 Jacksonville 12
Miami 16 Cleveland 20
Minnesota 14 Detroit 21
New England 28 Buffalo 16
Oakland 3 Indianapolis 17
Seattle 21 Carolina 24
Tampa Bay 17 NY Jets 10
Tennessee 10 Pittsburgh 24
Arizona 14 St Louis 17
NY Giants 16 Dallas 20
Philadelphia 21 Washington 16
Houston 18 San Diego 21
Prediction Machine
NFL Sides
72 1:00 pm @IND oak -9.5 12.5 - 59.2%
468 1:00 pm @CAR sea 3 0.8 - 58.1%
466 1:00 pm @CLE mia 0 3.1 - 57.5%
463 1:00 pm CIN @ chi 3 0.0 - 57.4%
474 4:25 pm @STL ari -4.5 6.9 - 56.8%
460 1:00 pm @NYJ tb 3 -0.4 - 56.7%
470 1:00 pm @DET min -4.5 6.6 - 55.5%
457 1:00 pm ATL @ no 3 -1.0 - 54.3%
475 4:25 pm GB @ sf 4.5 -2.7 - 54.1%
461 1:00 pm KC @ jac -3.5 4.9 - 53.6%
455 1:00 pm TEN @ pit 7 -5.9 - 53.3%
477 8:30 pm NYG @ dal 3 -1.8 - 52.8%
454 1:00 pm @BUF ne 9.5 -9.1 - 51.2%
NFL Sides
72 1:00 pm @IND oak -9.5 12.5 - 59.2%
468 1:00 pm @CAR sea 3 0.8 - 58.1%
466 1:00 pm @CLE mia 0 3.1 - 57.5%
463 1:00 pm CIN @ chi 3 0.0 - 57.4%
474 4:25 pm @STL ari -4.5 6.9 - 56.8%
460 1:00 pm @NYJ tb 3 -0.4 - 56.7%
470 1:00 pm @DET min -4.5 6.6 - 55.5%
457 1:00 pm ATL @ no 3 -1.0 - 54.3%
475 4:25 pm GB @ sf 4.5 -2.7 - 54.1%
461 1:00 pm KC @ jac -3.5 4.9 - 53.6%
455 1:00 pm TEN @ pit 7 -5.9 - 53.3%
477 8:30 pm NYG @ dal 3 -1.8 - 52.8%
454 1:00 pm @BUF ne 9.5 -9.1 - 51.2%
INSIDER ANGLES
NFL Trends & Angles - Week 1
September 6, 2013
At long last, the 2013 NFL season has arrived, making this one of the most exciting weekends of the entire calendar year! And just because teams have not played a single meaningful game yet, do not think for one second that there are no profitable NFL Trends & Angles to be found, especially with NFL lines being the softest in the early weeks of the season that they will be all year.
Now, we have researched all NFL games since the 2000 season and found some correlations between a team's record in it previous season and it performance during September of the next season in certain situations. Thus we have separated the Trends & Angles this week into two parts, one for Good Teams and one for Bad Teams.
As a refresher, we are not using those terms subjectively, as we are defining Good Team as a team that won at least 10 games in the prior season and Bad Team as a team that lost at least 10 games. Those that have followed this column in the past are aware that we prefer to look for underdogs, and all the Bad Team angles below do that quite well.
However, contrary to our nature, the Good Team angles actually have one trend pointing to favorites and two angles pointing to 'overs', which should make our more "square" followers happy. As usual, all records in our NFL Trends & Angles are since the 2000 season, except that for the first several weeks, the records are for September games only!
Good Teams - At least 10 wins last season
Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (43-30-6, 58.9% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams play September division games (76-52-3, 59.4%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important ones. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses and they usually get up for these games, often resulting in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams are favored over Bad Teams during September
(62-40-1, 60.8%):
This is a often a case of a favorite being so much better then its opponent that it can name the score, but there are also occasions where the inferior team gets up for these games early in the year while they still have playoff aspirations just like everybody else. Both of these circumstances usually produce higher scoring games.
Bad Teams - At least 10 losses last season
Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (106-72-10, 59.2% ATS):
Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a very good winning percentage for this size of a sampling.
Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (59-33-3, 64.1% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win.
Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September
(49-23-4, 68.1% ATS)
This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being dogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration.
NFL Trends & Angles - Week 1
September 6, 2013
At long last, the 2013 NFL season has arrived, making this one of the most exciting weekends of the entire calendar year! And just because teams have not played a single meaningful game yet, do not think for one second that there are no profitable NFL Trends & Angles to be found, especially with NFL lines being the softest in the early weeks of the season that they will be all year.
Now, we have researched all NFL games since the 2000 season and found some correlations between a team's record in it previous season and it performance during September of the next season in certain situations. Thus we have separated the Trends & Angles this week into two parts, one for Good Teams and one for Bad Teams.
As a refresher, we are not using those terms subjectively, as we are defining Good Team as a team that won at least 10 games in the prior season and Bad Team as a team that lost at least 10 games. Those that have followed this column in the past are aware that we prefer to look for underdogs, and all the Bad Team angles below do that quite well.
However, contrary to our nature, the Good Team angles actually have one trend pointing to favorites and two angles pointing to 'overs', which should make our more "square" followers happy. As usual, all records in our NFL Trends & Angles are since the 2000 season, except that for the first several weeks, the records are for September games only!
Good Teams - At least 10 wins last season
Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (43-30-6, 58.9% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams play September division games (76-52-3, 59.4%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important ones. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses and they usually get up for these games, often resulting in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams are favored over Bad Teams during September
(62-40-1, 60.8%):
This is a often a case of a favorite being so much better then its opponent that it can name the score, but there are also occasions where the inferior team gets up for these games early in the year while they still have playoff aspirations just like everybody else. Both of these circumstances usually produce higher scoring games.
Bad Teams - At least 10 losses last season
Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (106-72-10, 59.2% ATS):
Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a very good winning percentage for this size of a sampling.
Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (59-33-3, 64.1% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win.
Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September
(49-23-4, 68.1% ATS)
This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being dogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration.
Sunday's NFL Week 1 Betting Cheat Sheet
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9.5, 51)
The Bills are beginning a new era with first-year head coach Doug Marrone and rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. Manuel underwent knee surgery on Aug. 18 but is ready to go for the season opener, pushing rookie free agent Jeff Tuel back to the bench.
Tom Brady lost most of his receiving corps with Aaron Hernandez in jail, Wes Welker in Denver and Brandon Lloyd off to free agency. The perennial Pro Bowler has a slew of rookies at wide receiver to go along with import Danny Amendola until Rob Gronkowski recovers from back and forearm surgeries.
LINE: Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point home underdog but has been bet up as high as +9.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6.0) + Bills (+6.0) – home field (-3.0) = Bills +9.0
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s, 29 percent chance of rain, winds NNE 7 mph
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42)
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has taken the Steelers to three Super Bowls - winning two - in his nine seasons, but he missed three games to injury in 2012 and starts the year with questions in the receiving corps and running game.
Titans counterpart Jake Locker sat out five games a year ago and has yet to prove he is the answer after being drafted No. 8 overall in 2008. Both teams have major questions on defense - the Steelers allowed nearly 100 points more last season than in 2011 and Tennessee was shredded for an NFL-worst 471 points.
LINE: Pittsburgh opened a 7.5-point favorite and has moved to -7. The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.5) + Pittsburgh (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -9.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 27 percent chance of showers, winds NNW 5 mph
TRENDS:
Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)
The Saints have dominated the series in recent years, winning 11 of the past 14 meetings, but they missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008. With head coach Sean Payton returning after being suspended last season for his role in the team's bounty scandal, New Orleans hopes to regain its supremacy over the division.
Granted, the Saints handed the Falcons their first loss last year, a 31-27 defeat in Week 10 in New Orleans, and it did little to slow Atlanta on its way to the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons returned the favor in Week 13 in Atlanta, picking off Drew Brees five times in a 23-13 win. Atlanta upgraded its offense by signing running back Steven Jackson and also coaxed tight end Tony Gonzalez back for one more season.
LINE: New Orleans opened as a 2-point favorite and moved to -3. The total has remained steady at 54.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (-4.5) - New Orleans (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)
New York coach Rex Ryan looks to exploit a Buccaneers pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 297.4 yards per game last year with rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who earned the starting nod after Mark Sanchez injured his shoulder during the fourth quarter of a preseason game .
Bucs RB Doug Martin looks for an encore after rushing for an impressive 1,454 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns during his rookie campaign. Greg Schiano's first year with Tampa Bay also saw Josh Freeman throw for a franchise-record 4,065 yards and 27 touchdowns - although nine of his 17 interceptions came in the final three games.
LINE: New York opened as 1.5-point underdogs and moved to +3.5. Total opened at 41.5 and moved to 39.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.0) - New York (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 15 percent chance of early showers, winds NNW 14 mph
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Buccaneers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games overall.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 41)
Sunday is the debut of two new head coaches, as Gus Bradley takes over in Jacksonville and Andy Reid guides the Chiefs after a long tenure in Philadelphia. It's the first meeting since 2010, when the Chiefs clobbered the Jaguars 42-20 in Kansas City, avenging a 24-21 loss in Jacksonville a year earlier.
Both did their best to address issues through the draft and free agency and have playoff hopes - however unrealistic they are. Among the key matchups will be Jacksonville's ability to establish the run and take some pressure off quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars' ability to slow down Jamaal Charles and force quarterback Alex Smith into third-and-long situations.
LINE: Jacksonville opened as a 1.5-point underdog and has moved to +4.5. The total climbed from 41 to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (+2.0) – Jacksonville (+7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars +2.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds East 8 mph
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
* Jaguars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
* Under is 4-0 in Jaguars’ last four home games.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 44.5)
The Seahawks won their final five regular-season games and even notched a playoff win behind quarterback Russell Wilson and now face high expectations. Carolina finished with a flurry last season with four consecutive wins and the pressure is on third-year quarterback Cam Newton to deliver the franchise’s first playoff spot since 2008.
Carolina coach Ron Rivera needs a winning season in his third year at the helm after going 13-19 over his first two seasons. Mike Shula is the Panthers’ new offensive coordinator after Rob Chudzinski left to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
LINE: Carolina opened as a 3.5-point underdog and moved to +4.5. Total opened at 45.5 and moved to 44.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) + Carolina (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +3.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds ENE 9 mph
TRENDS:
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-2 in each Panthers and Seahawks’ last eight games overall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)
With a brand new coach and a healthy Cutler on board, the Bears begin the slow climb back to playoff contention. Replacing Lovie Smith is offensive guru Marc Trestman, who is coming off a successful coaching stint with the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton and the offense faded down the stretch in 2012 and was held to 198 total yards in a first-round playoff loss to the Houston Texans.. The Bengals have won five of their last six on the road against NFC teams and are 4-1 all-time at Chicago.
LINE: Chicago opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -3. The total opened at 43.5 and moved to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-1.0) – Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NE 13 mph
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
* Under is 7-2 in Bears last nine games in Week 1.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 41)
This game marks the debut of Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski, who spent the last two years as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator. Chudzinski and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner could rely heavily on RB Trent Richardson with top WR Josh Gordon suspended for violating the league’s drug policy.
Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw 12 touchdown passes as a rookie, though only three of those scoring aerials were to wide receivers. There will be no excuses for that this season, as the Dolphins signed former Steelers wideout Mike Wallace to generate big plays in the passing game.
LINE: Game opened pick and some books are dealing Cleveland -1.5. The total has moved from 41 to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.5) – Cleveland (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s, 25 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds NNE 13 mph
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5, 46.5)
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has vowed to shatter the single-season rushing mark this season. Minnesota’s offense is still a major question mark. Christian Ponder, who has surpassed 300 yards only twice in 26 starts, may be on a short leash. Minnesota swept the season series a year ago, including a 20-13 victory in Detroit.
Detroit added Reggie Bush to bolster a backfield that's been non-productive for several seasons. Bush's dual-threat presence should take some of the onus off the oft-weary shoulders of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw just 20 touchdown passes last season after tossing a career-high 41 in 2011. Detroit enters the season riding an eight-game losing streak.
LINE: Detroit opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -5. The total has moved from 47 to 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+1.0) – Detroit (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -3
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47)
The athletic but unproven Terrelle Pryor has reportedly won the Raiders QB competition with Matt Flynn and is poised to establish himself for a squad that ranked 26th in the NFL in scoring last year. Pryor threw for 150 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 49 yards and a score in Week 17 last season in his only career start.
Colts QB Andrew Luck was 7-1 at home in 2012, winning the last six. Seven of the eight home contests were decided by a touchdown or less, giving Luck plenty of time to display his abilities in the clutch. Luck's favorite target again figures to be 13-year standout Reggie Wayne, who amassed 106 catches and 1,355 yards last season.
LINE: Indianapolis opened as a -8.5 favorite and moved to -10.5. The total moved from 49 to 47 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+8.0) - Indianapolis (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Under is 11-2 in Colts last 13 home games.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 48.5)
Green Bay fell 45-31 to San Francisco in the NFC divisional round but is in good shape heading into 2013 with QB Aaron Rodgers in his prime and a host of receiving weapons at his disposal. He'll be put to the test in Week 1 against a vaunted 49ers defense that finished second in the league in fewest points against.
The San Francisco offense belongs to quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The Green Bay defense is ready to go after the nimble QB, who racked up 181 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in their playoff showdown.
LINE: San Francisco opened -5 and has dropped to -4.5. The total has been adjusted from 50.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.5) – San Francisco (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -4.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, clear skies, winds WSW 6 mph
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Packers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5, 41.5)
Longtime Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher is back for his second season with the Rams while Bruce Arians takes the reins for the Cardinals. He will be charged with reviving a team that produced an NFC-low 250 points and lost 11 of its final 12 games after bolting out to a 4-0 start last season.
St. Louis, surprisingly, had the best record within its division and looks to continue its ascent behind a youthful squad that features electrifying rookie receiver Tavon Austin. Daryl Richardson gets first crack at replacing free-agent departure RB Steven Jackson in the backfield and will run behind a beefed-up line that added former No. 1 overall pick Jake Long.
LINE: St. Louis opened as a 5-point favorite and moved to -4.5. The total has moved from 41 to 41.5 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+5.0) – St. Louis (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -5.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)
The New York Giants attempt to continue their dominance at Cowboys Stadium Sunday night. New York has won all four of its games in Dallas' new stadium since it opened in 2009, including a 29-24 triumph on Oct. 28. The Giants have captured six of the last eight overall meetings between the NFC East rivals.
New York hopes to have Victor Cruz in the lineup as the wide receiver suffered a bruised heel in the second week of the preseason and just returned to practice on Monday. Dallas looks to improve upon the 19th-ranked defense in the league in 2012. In an effort to accomplish this goal, the club replaced defensive coordinator Rob Ryan with Monte Kiffin and switched to a 4-3 alignment.
LINE: Dallas opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -3.5. The total has moved from 49 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-3.0) - Dallas (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -4.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Dallas.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9.5, 51)
The Bills are beginning a new era with first-year head coach Doug Marrone and rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. Manuel underwent knee surgery on Aug. 18 but is ready to go for the season opener, pushing rookie free agent Jeff Tuel back to the bench.
Tom Brady lost most of his receiving corps with Aaron Hernandez in jail, Wes Welker in Denver and Brandon Lloyd off to free agency. The perennial Pro Bowler has a slew of rookies at wide receiver to go along with import Danny Amendola until Rob Gronkowski recovers from back and forearm surgeries.
LINE: Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point home underdog but has been bet up as high as +9.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6.0) + Bills (+6.0) – home field (-3.0) = Bills +9.0
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s, 29 percent chance of rain, winds NNE 7 mph
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42)
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has taken the Steelers to three Super Bowls - winning two - in his nine seasons, but he missed three games to injury in 2012 and starts the year with questions in the receiving corps and running game.
Titans counterpart Jake Locker sat out five games a year ago and has yet to prove he is the answer after being drafted No. 8 overall in 2008. Both teams have major questions on defense - the Steelers allowed nearly 100 points more last season than in 2011 and Tennessee was shredded for an NFL-worst 471 points.
LINE: Pittsburgh opened a 7.5-point favorite and has moved to -7. The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+4.5) + Pittsburgh (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -9.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 27 percent chance of showers, winds NNW 5 mph
TRENDS:
Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)
The Saints have dominated the series in recent years, winning 11 of the past 14 meetings, but they missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008. With head coach Sean Payton returning after being suspended last season for his role in the team's bounty scandal, New Orleans hopes to regain its supremacy over the division.
Granted, the Saints handed the Falcons their first loss last year, a 31-27 defeat in Week 10 in New Orleans, and it did little to slow Atlanta on its way to the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons returned the favor in Week 13 in Atlanta, picking off Drew Brees five times in a 23-13 win. Atlanta upgraded its offense by signing running back Steven Jackson and also coaxed tight end Tony Gonzalez back for one more season.
LINE: New Orleans opened as a 2-point favorite and moved to -3. The total has remained steady at 54.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (-4.5) - New Orleans (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)
New York coach Rex Ryan looks to exploit a Buccaneers pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 297.4 yards per game last year with rookie quarterback Geno Smith, who earned the starting nod after Mark Sanchez injured his shoulder during the fourth quarter of a preseason game .
Bucs RB Doug Martin looks for an encore after rushing for an impressive 1,454 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns during his rookie campaign. Greg Schiano's first year with Tampa Bay also saw Josh Freeman throw for a franchise-record 4,065 yards and 27 touchdowns - although nine of his 17 interceptions came in the final three games.
LINE: New York opened as 1.5-point underdogs and moved to +3.5. Total opened at 41.5 and moved to 39.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.0) - New York (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 15 percent chance of early showers, winds NNW 14 mph
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Buccaneers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games overall.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 41)
Sunday is the debut of two new head coaches, as Gus Bradley takes over in Jacksonville and Andy Reid guides the Chiefs after a long tenure in Philadelphia. It's the first meeting since 2010, when the Chiefs clobbered the Jaguars 42-20 in Kansas City, avenging a 24-21 loss in Jacksonville a year earlier.
Both did their best to address issues through the draft and free agency and have playoff hopes - however unrealistic they are. Among the key matchups will be Jacksonville's ability to establish the run and take some pressure off quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars' ability to slow down Jamaal Charles and force quarterback Alex Smith into third-and-long situations.
LINE: Jacksonville opened as a 1.5-point underdog and has moved to +4.5. The total climbed from 41 to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (+2.0) – Jacksonville (+7.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars +2.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds East 8 mph
TRENDS:
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
* Jaguars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
* Under is 4-0 in Jaguars’ last four home games.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3.5, 44.5)
The Seahawks won their final five regular-season games and even notched a playoff win behind quarterback Russell Wilson and now face high expectations. Carolina finished with a flurry last season with four consecutive wins and the pressure is on third-year quarterback Cam Newton to deliver the franchise’s first playoff spot since 2008.
Carolina coach Ron Rivera needs a winning season in his third year at the helm after going 13-19 over his first two seasons. Mike Shula is the Panthers’ new offensive coordinator after Rob Chudzinski left to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
LINE: Carolina opened as a 3.5-point underdog and moved to +4.5. Total opened at 45.5 and moved to 44.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) + Carolina (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +3.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds ENE 9 mph
TRENDS:
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-2 in each Panthers and Seahawks’ last eight games overall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)
With a brand new coach and a healthy Cutler on board, the Bears begin the slow climb back to playoff contention. Replacing Lovie Smith is offensive guru Marc Trestman, who is coming off a successful coaching stint with the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton and the offense faded down the stretch in 2012 and was held to 198 total yards in a first-round playoff loss to the Houston Texans.. The Bengals have won five of their last six on the road against NFC teams and are 4-1 all-time at Chicago.
LINE: Chicago opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -3. The total opened at 43.5 and moved to 41.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-1.0) – Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -4
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NE 13 mph
TRENDS:
* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
* Under is 7-2 in Bears last nine games in Week 1.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 41)
This game marks the debut of Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski, who spent the last two years as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator. Chudzinski and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner could rely heavily on RB Trent Richardson with top WR Josh Gordon suspended for violating the league’s drug policy.
Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw 12 touchdown passes as a rookie, though only three of those scoring aerials were to wide receivers. There will be no excuses for that this season, as the Dolphins signed former Steelers wideout Mike Wallace to generate big plays in the passing game.
LINE: Game opened pick and some books are dealing Cleveland -1.5. The total has moved from 41 to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.5) – Cleveland (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -0.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s, 25 percent chance of thunderstorms, winds NNE 13 mph
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-5, 46.5)
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has vowed to shatter the single-season rushing mark this season. Minnesota’s offense is still a major question mark. Christian Ponder, who has surpassed 300 yards only twice in 26 starts, may be on a short leash. Minnesota swept the season series a year ago, including a 20-13 victory in Detroit.
Detroit added Reggie Bush to bolster a backfield that's been non-productive for several seasons. Bush's dual-threat presence should take some of the onus off the oft-weary shoulders of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw just 20 touchdown passes last season after tossing a career-high 41 in 2011. Detroit enters the season riding an eight-game losing streak.
LINE: Detroit opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -5. The total has moved from 47 to 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+1.0) – Detroit (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -3
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47)
The athletic but unproven Terrelle Pryor has reportedly won the Raiders QB competition with Matt Flynn and is poised to establish himself for a squad that ranked 26th in the NFL in scoring last year. Pryor threw for 150 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 49 yards and a score in Week 17 last season in his only career start.
Colts QB Andrew Luck was 7-1 at home in 2012, winning the last six. Seven of the eight home contests were decided by a touchdown or less, giving Luck plenty of time to display his abilities in the clutch. Luck's favorite target again figures to be 13-year standout Reggie Wayne, who amassed 106 catches and 1,355 yards last season.
LINE: Indianapolis opened as a -8.5 favorite and moved to -10.5. The total moved from 49 to 47 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+8.0) - Indianapolis (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Under is 11-2 in Colts last 13 home games.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 48.5)
Green Bay fell 45-31 to San Francisco in the NFC divisional round but is in good shape heading into 2013 with QB Aaron Rodgers in his prime and a host of receiving weapons at his disposal. He'll be put to the test in Week 1 against a vaunted 49ers defense that finished second in the league in fewest points against.
The San Francisco offense belongs to quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The Green Bay defense is ready to go after the nimble QB, who racked up 181 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in their playoff showdown.
LINE: San Francisco opened -5 and has dropped to -4.5. The total has been adjusted from 50.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.5) – San Francisco (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -4.5
WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, clear skies, winds WSW 6 mph
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Packers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5, 41.5)
Longtime Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher is back for his second season with the Rams while Bruce Arians takes the reins for the Cardinals. He will be charged with reviving a team that produced an NFC-low 250 points and lost 11 of its final 12 games after bolting out to a 4-0 start last season.
St. Louis, surprisingly, had the best record within its division and looks to continue its ascent behind a youthful squad that features electrifying rookie receiver Tavon Austin. Daryl Richardson gets first crack at replacing free-agent departure RB Steven Jackson in the backfield and will run behind a beefed-up line that added former No. 1 overall pick Jake Long.
LINE: St. Louis opened as a 5-point favorite and moved to -4.5. The total has moved from 41 to 41.5 points.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+5.0) – St. Louis (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -5.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)
The New York Giants attempt to continue their dominance at Cowboys Stadium Sunday night. New York has won all four of its games in Dallas' new stadium since it opened in 2009, including a 29-24 triumph on Oct. 28. The Giants have captured six of the last eight overall meetings between the NFC East rivals.
New York hopes to have Victor Cruz in the lineup as the wide receiver suffered a bruised heel in the second week of the preseason and just returned to practice on Monday. Dallas looks to improve upon the 19th-ranked defense in the league in 2012. In an effort to accomplish this goal, the club replaced defensive coordinator Rob Ryan with Monte Kiffin and switched to a 4-3 alignment.
LINE: Dallas opened as a 3-point favorite and has moved to -3.5. The total has moved from 49 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-3.0) - Dallas (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -4.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Dallas.
* Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
NFL Top 4: Quarterbacks who may match Manning
Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning's season debut will go down as one of the most impressive offensive performances in NFL history. Fellow signal callers will have a difficult time matching Manning's Week 1 totals - but a handful are in position to make a run.
Here are four quarterbacks with the best chance to top Manning's incredible Thursday:
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
The loss of receiving threats Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, coupled with tight end Rob Gronkowski's continued recovery from offseason back and forearm injuries, have left some wondering if Brady can still expect to rack up the yardage totals. Memo to the doubters: It's Tom Brady. Even in his mid-30s, the prolific QB will find a way to get Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld and the rest of his offensive weapons plenty of targets.
The Patriots open the regular season Sunday in Buffalo against the Bills.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
How could Brees possibly improve upon last year's jaw-dropping statistics (5,177 yards, 43 touchdowns)? If there's a way, returning head coach Sean Payton will find it. Brees will have all of his offensive stars back in the fold, including elite tight end Jimmy Graham, explosive wideout Marques Colston and running-back-in-name-only Darren Sproles. If everyone stays healthy, Brees will make 400-yard afternoons a regular occurrence.
The Saints kick things off Sunday against the visiting Atlanta Falcons.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Sometimes, all you need is one go-to guy. Stafford proved that theory correct in 2012, as he racked up nearly 5,000 yards despite having just one quality wide receiver. Of course, when that guy is Calvin Johnson (NFL-record 1,964 receiving yards), it certainly helps. The receiving corps remains thin behind Johnson, but the addition of pass-catching tailback Reggie Bush and another year of experience for tight end Brandon Pettigrew could get Stafford past 5,000 yards.
The Lions face the visiting Minnesota Vikings in Sunday's season opener.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
One of the NFL's new class of dual-threat quarterbacks, Luck will have plenty of intriguing targets to throw to in 2013. In addition to holdovers Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, the Colts added Darrius Hayward-Bay from the Oakland Raiders in the offseason to shore up the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. Add in talented tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, and Luck won't need much to have a successful second season.
The Colts begin the 2013 campaign at home against the lowly Oakland Raiders on Sunday.
Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning's season debut will go down as one of the most impressive offensive performances in NFL history. Fellow signal callers will have a difficult time matching Manning's Week 1 totals - but a handful are in position to make a run.
Here are four quarterbacks with the best chance to top Manning's incredible Thursday:
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
The loss of receiving threats Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, coupled with tight end Rob Gronkowski's continued recovery from offseason back and forearm injuries, have left some wondering if Brady can still expect to rack up the yardage totals. Memo to the doubters: It's Tom Brady. Even in his mid-30s, the prolific QB will find a way to get Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins, Zach Sudfeld and the rest of his offensive weapons plenty of targets.
The Patriots open the regular season Sunday in Buffalo against the Bills.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
How could Brees possibly improve upon last year's jaw-dropping statistics (5,177 yards, 43 touchdowns)? If there's a way, returning head coach Sean Payton will find it. Brees will have all of his offensive stars back in the fold, including elite tight end Jimmy Graham, explosive wideout Marques Colston and running-back-in-name-only Darren Sproles. If everyone stays healthy, Brees will make 400-yard afternoons a regular occurrence.
The Saints kick things off Sunday against the visiting Atlanta Falcons.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Sometimes, all you need is one go-to guy. Stafford proved that theory correct in 2012, as he racked up nearly 5,000 yards despite having just one quality wide receiver. Of course, when that guy is Calvin Johnson (NFL-record 1,964 receiving yards), it certainly helps. The receiving corps remains thin behind Johnson, but the addition of pass-catching tailback Reggie Bush and another year of experience for tight end Brandon Pettigrew could get Stafford past 5,000 yards.
The Lions face the visiting Minnesota Vikings in Sunday's season opener.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
One of the NFL's new class of dual-threat quarterbacks, Luck will have plenty of intriguing targets to throw to in 2013. In addition to holdovers Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, the Colts added Darrius Hayward-Bay from the Oakland Raiders in the offseason to shore up the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. Add in talented tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, and Luck won't need much to have a successful second season.
The Colts begin the 2013 campaign at home against the lowly Oakland Raiders on Sunday.
NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts
Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+10, 51)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 12 percent possibility of rain. Wind will blow across the field from the NE at 12 mph.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3, 45)
Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and skies will be clear before giving way to partly cloudy conditions as the game progresses. There is a 17 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)
Forecasts in Chicago are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from the NE towards the SW endzone at 14 mph.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 42.5)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-80s.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)
Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be in the mid-70s in New York. Wind will blow from the NW towards the SE end zone at 11 mph. There is a 25 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42.5)
There is a 26 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 49)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-60s at Candlestick. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.
Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+10, 51)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 12 percent possibility of rain. Wind will blow across the field from the NE at 12 mph.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+3, 45)
Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and skies will be clear before giving way to partly cloudy conditions as the game progresses. There is a 17 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5)
Forecasts in Chicago are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from the NE towards the SW endzone at 14 mph.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 42.5)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-80s.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)
Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be in the mid-70s in New York. Wind will blow from the NW towards the SE end zone at 11 mph. There is a 25 percent chance of rain in the forecast.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 42.5)
There is a 26 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 49)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the mid-60s at Candlestick. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.
Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves
Tracking line moves during Week 1 of the NFL season is a different animal than any other week on the schedule.
Most games have had spreads available since the spring and have been influenced by a summer’s worth of stories, injuries and action.
We talk to oddsmakers about the flow of action coming in on Sunday's NFL games.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Open: -7, Move: -10
Not the most, shall we say, ideal offseason for the Pats. But, with all of their issues at TE and the departure of Wes Welker, action is still pouring in on the Patriots moving the line to double digits.
"Sharps and public both agree on the Patriots at the -8.5 to -9 value," an oddsmaker with BetDSI told Covers. "The current wager count shows it with a 5/1 (and growing) trend in favor of the Pats."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets - Open: +1.5, Move: +3
The issues for the Jets at QB are well documented. Rookie Geno Smith will be under center to start the season until, at the very least, Mark Sanchez makes his return. Another subplot here is that the Jets will face an old friend in CB Darrelle Revis who will no doubt look to make the Jets offense look miserable.
"Money is pretty split down the middle for this one with a bit more on Tampa Bay," Aron Black of Bet365 says. "But late money is starting to come in on the Jets forcing the move at many places to a juiced 3."
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers - Open: +3, Move: +3.5, Move: +3
The Seahawks come in to the new season with high expectations after a great 2012 campaign and are one of the faves for the Super Bowl. But the Carolina Panthers have been popular with future plays and 'over' on their season win total.
"This is one of the more solid lines since release," says Black. "It should hold, but might possibly break to 3.5 by tomorrow."
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts - Open: -7, Move: -10
Indy fans got to watch their former leader carve up the Baltimore Ravens for seven touchdown tosses Thursday, but Peyton Manning is the past. Andrew Luck is the present and future and Colts fans, and backers, have nothing but the utmost faith in the second-year QB.
"Money so far says Oakland are to be left alone this week," says Black. "Action is large on Indy and this line will prob move towards them a bit more."
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -5, Move: -4.5
One of the two late-afternoon matchups is a rematch of the NFC Division playoff game in which 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick ran all over the Packers en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Two popular teams with two huge fan bases and action on these NFC titans is reflecting that.
"Probably the best matchup of the opening weekend is playing out exactly as expected," an oddsmaker from BetDSI says. "The Green Bay/San Fran tilt has huge volume, but completely balanced with 2 way action."
Tracking line moves during Week 1 of the NFL season is a different animal than any other week on the schedule.
Most games have had spreads available since the spring and have been influenced by a summer’s worth of stories, injuries and action.
We talk to oddsmakers about the flow of action coming in on Sunday's NFL games.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - Open: -7, Move: -10
Not the most, shall we say, ideal offseason for the Pats. But, with all of their issues at TE and the departure of Wes Welker, action is still pouring in on the Patriots moving the line to double digits.
"Sharps and public both agree on the Patriots at the -8.5 to -9 value," an oddsmaker with BetDSI told Covers. "The current wager count shows it with a 5/1 (and growing) trend in favor of the Pats."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets - Open: +1.5, Move: +3
The issues for the Jets at QB are well documented. Rookie Geno Smith will be under center to start the season until, at the very least, Mark Sanchez makes his return. Another subplot here is that the Jets will face an old friend in CB Darrelle Revis who will no doubt look to make the Jets offense look miserable.
"Money is pretty split down the middle for this one with a bit more on Tampa Bay," Aron Black of Bet365 says. "But late money is starting to come in on the Jets forcing the move at many places to a juiced 3."
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers - Open: +3, Move: +3.5, Move: +3
The Seahawks come in to the new season with high expectations after a great 2012 campaign and are one of the faves for the Super Bowl. But the Carolina Panthers have been popular with future plays and 'over' on their season win total.
"This is one of the more solid lines since release," says Black. "It should hold, but might possibly break to 3.5 by tomorrow."
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts - Open: -7, Move: -10
Indy fans got to watch their former leader carve up the Baltimore Ravens for seven touchdown tosses Thursday, but Peyton Manning is the past. Andrew Luck is the present and future and Colts fans, and backers, have nothing but the utmost faith in the second-year QB.
"Money so far says Oakland are to be left alone this week," says Black. "Action is large on Indy and this line will prob move towards them a bit more."
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -5, Move: -4.5
One of the two late-afternoon matchups is a rematch of the NFC Division playoff game in which 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick ran all over the Packers en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Two popular teams with two huge fan bases and action on these NFC titans is reflecting that.
"Probably the best matchup of the opening weekend is playing out exactly as expected," an oddsmaker from BetDSI says. "The Green Bay/San Fran tilt has huge volume, but completely balanced with 2 way action."
