Wunderdog
Each pick is rated from 0.5 to 2.5 units (read about units). Risk 1% of your total bankroll per unit and never risk more than a few percent of your bankroll on any pick.
Game: Seattle at Carolina (Sunday 9/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 45 (-110) at Bovada (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Carolina Panthers struggled again last season, but did look to be an improved team down the stretch defensively. The Panthers allowed 22.7 per game last season (17 per game in their last three). Luke Kuechly bolstered the defense with 174 tackles in his rookie season - tops in the NFL. Carolina held opponents to 20 points or less seven times but when your offense produced 14 points or less five times, the wins were hard to come by. Seattle had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season holding opponents to just 360 yards and 16.1 points per game. They held 13 of 16 opponents to 20 points or less, and down the stretch the defense was a real beast. Seattle held their last five regular season opponents to 12 points per game! Seattle has shown the tendency to start off slow offensively then gain momentum, as their last six September games have all played UNDER. This total is high considering how the defenses played down the stretch a year ago, and how they matche d up vs. each other. Let's not forget that these teams played a 16-12 game last season, with the teams combining for fewer than 500 total yards. Make the play here on the UNDER in this opener.
Game: Kansas City at Jacksonville (Sunday 9/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Jacksonville +4 (-105) at 5Dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
In my ESPN podcast in July I identified the Jaguars as a great bet-on team this season. In a nutshell, I feel that this team will have line value all season long. Exhibit A is this weekend where they are getting 4 points at home to a team that won only two games last season! Kansas City has a lot to be hopeful for with Andy Reid and a new quarterback taking over. Reid's West Coast offense has potential but with current personnel, is that really a good fit? The most dangerous weapon for the Chiefs is Jamaal Charles and that means they are going to run a lot to have a chance to be effective. To make matters worse, right now Charles has a strained foot, but will play. Alex Smith will take over at QB, and while he was respectable in San Francisco, the personnel he had to work with there was a whole lot better than what he will have in KC. A healthy Maurice Jones-Drew will impact the Jacksonville offense, as he sat out most of last year with an injury, and he is a difference maker. The solid running game, and the Chiefs' lack of pressure (five sacks from D-line a year ago), and just 13 takeaways could offer some openings for Blaine Gabbert who while not great, is underrated. The Jags defense has been upgraded with five free-agent signings on the defensive end. This team has made a habit of coming out prepared, going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 season openers. In what looks like a toss-up game to me, the points are crucial here for the home dog. Take Jacksonville.
Game: Oakland at Indianapolis (Sunday 9/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Oakland +10 (-110) at TopBet (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 47 (-105) at 5Dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
Not many players had more impact on their team last year than Andrew Luck. The Colts went from 2-14 two years back to 11-5 last year. The offense generated 114 more points with him at QB than they did the previous year. This, however, is not a team without concerns. The Colts may have won 11 games, but six of those were decided by 4 points or less, and a seventh was decided in overtime. Additionally, a pair of others were decided by just one possession (7 points). All told, the Colts won 9 of their 11 games by 7 points or less, and could just have easily finished the season below .500. That is backed up by the fact that Indiy was outgained on the season and outscored on the season last year! That's not an 11-5 team. That's a lucky 7-9 team. In five of their seven losses, including their one and done playoffs game, they were outscored by 108 points! The offense was indeed better, but not by as much as it looked, as the Colts topped the 30-point mark just o nce. So, Indy comes into 2013 overrated. Oakland finished just 4-12, but there were positive signs late in the season. The defense was in shambles at mid season, going through a four-game stretch of allowing 42.3 points per game. They improved upon that to finish the season with their last five games allowing just 17.4 ppg. The Raiders have a new offensive coordinator, and he vows to turn Darren McFadden free and grind games out, which will enhance their opportunity to stay competitive. Oakland has improved defensively, at least on paper, with the addition of three CBs and a savvy veteran safety in Charles Woodson, who has a nose for the ball. Overall, this Indianapolis team was not as good as they appeared to be a year ago, and Oakland is certainly capable of staying inside double-digits. Take the points with Oakland. Also grab the UNDER. Indy is also 11-2 to the UNDER in their last 13 at home and as stated, their offense was really mediocre last season. They managed just 21.5 po ints per game last season. In their final four games of the season (including their playoff stinker), the Colts managed just 16.5 points per game. Oakland will look to shorten the game with a lot of Darren McFadden and clock ticking. In their last 36 road games with a total of 46 or higher, the Raiders are 25-11 to the UNDER. Take the points on Oakland and play the UNDER.
Game: Green Bay at San Francisco (Sunday 9/08 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 48.5 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Green Bay Packers posted a 15-1 mark two seasons ago. They took a step backwards last year but still went 11-5. Why the reversion? Aaron Rogers is one of the best QBs in the NFL and will likely go down as an all-time great. But he isn't without issues. His problem continues to be two-fold. The Packers' offensive line is inept, and he hasn't enjoyed the support of a running game in years. While the Pack drafted Franklin and Lacey, neither appeared very effective in the preseason. Without the offensive line to run behind, I don't expect great strides from the running game, at least early on. Despite Rogers' super-human ability, the Packers slipped from 560 points in 2011-12 to 433 a year ago. It is quite possible that there is further erosion this year, unless the Packers suddenly find an offensive line and/or a running game, which is not likely to occur in week one. Especially when facing one of the league's best defenses. Last season San Fr ancisco gave up just 15.8 points per game at home. The Niners never played to a total this high all of last year in 19 games, so game one looks a bit inflated here, especially with a team that is as good defensively as you'll find and offenses that need to shake off a bit of rust. High totals tend to be difficult to topple early in the season, so I look for this one to play UNDER the total.
Game: New York Giants at Dallas (Sunday 9/08 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on New York Giants +3.5 (-105) at TopBet (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
The Dallas Cowboys simply don't produce as a favorite in the Jason Garrett era. Over the past three seasons, this team 12-7 ATS when getting points. But, they are just 6-21 ATS as a favorite including 4-19 ATS when laying a field goal or more. The New York Giants slipped a year ago on defense, which is inexcusable for a team that features Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. They finished 22nd in the league in sacks, allowing the second most yards in the NFL on defense. Those issues look to have been addressed with the addition of seven new defenders. The most influential will be Cullen Jenkins on the defensive line. What the Giants did do last year despite their shortcomings was force 35 turnovers. I look for the addition of Jenkins, and a revived commitment of both Tuck and Paul, to vastly improve the defensive numbers from a year ago. Dallas will turn over the play calling duties to Bill Callahan which could change the pass-happy Dallas offense. A year ago America's team threw the ball the second most in the league - over 66% of the time. That didn't work out too well. And the Cowboys defense last season was bad, allowing 25 points per game (27.7 in home games and 28.0 in division contests). The Giants are 57-37 ATS in their last 94 games as a road dog of 7 or less. And under Tom Coughlin they are 37-23 ATS overall as a dog. And in the Coughlin era, the G-Men are 67-47 ATS vs. NFC opponents. Compare that to Garrett's 9-21 ATS mark in NFC conference games and 4-12 ATS mark in division games. Take the Giants plus the points here.
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Each pick is rated from 0.5 to 2.5 units (read about units). Risk 1% of your total bankroll per unit and never risk more than a few percent of your bankroll on any pick.
Game: Seattle at Carolina (Sunday 9/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 45 (-110) at Bovada (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Carolina Panthers struggled again last season, but did look to be an improved team down the stretch defensively. The Panthers allowed 22.7 per game last season (17 per game in their last three). Luke Kuechly bolstered the defense with 174 tackles in his rookie season - tops in the NFL. Carolina held opponents to 20 points or less seven times but when your offense produced 14 points or less five times, the wins were hard to come by. Seattle had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season holding opponents to just 360 yards and 16.1 points per game. They held 13 of 16 opponents to 20 points or less, and down the stretch the defense was a real beast. Seattle held their last five regular season opponents to 12 points per game! Seattle has shown the tendency to start off slow offensively then gain momentum, as their last six September games have all played UNDER. This total is high considering how the defenses played down the stretch a year ago, and how they matche d up vs. each other. Let's not forget that these teams played a 16-12 game last season, with the teams combining for fewer than 500 total yards. Make the play here on the UNDER in this opener.
Game: Kansas City at Jacksonville (Sunday 9/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Jacksonville +4 (-105) at 5Dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
In my ESPN podcast in July I identified the Jaguars as a great bet-on team this season. In a nutshell, I feel that this team will have line value all season long. Exhibit A is this weekend where they are getting 4 points at home to a team that won only two games last season! Kansas City has a lot to be hopeful for with Andy Reid and a new quarterback taking over. Reid's West Coast offense has potential but with current personnel, is that really a good fit? The most dangerous weapon for the Chiefs is Jamaal Charles and that means they are going to run a lot to have a chance to be effective. To make matters worse, right now Charles has a strained foot, but will play. Alex Smith will take over at QB, and while he was respectable in San Francisco, the personnel he had to work with there was a whole lot better than what he will have in KC. A healthy Maurice Jones-Drew will impact the Jacksonville offense, as he sat out most of last year with an injury, and he is a difference maker. The solid running game, and the Chiefs' lack of pressure (five sacks from D-line a year ago), and just 13 takeaways could offer some openings for Blaine Gabbert who while not great, is underrated. The Jags defense has been upgraded with five free-agent signings on the defensive end. This team has made a habit of coming out prepared, going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 season openers. In what looks like a toss-up game to me, the points are crucial here for the home dog. Take Jacksonville.
Game: Oakland at Indianapolis (Sunday 9/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Oakland +10 (-110) at TopBet (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 47 (-105) at 5Dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
Not many players had more impact on their team last year than Andrew Luck. The Colts went from 2-14 two years back to 11-5 last year. The offense generated 114 more points with him at QB than they did the previous year. This, however, is not a team without concerns. The Colts may have won 11 games, but six of those were decided by 4 points or less, and a seventh was decided in overtime. Additionally, a pair of others were decided by just one possession (7 points). All told, the Colts won 9 of their 11 games by 7 points or less, and could just have easily finished the season below .500. That is backed up by the fact that Indiy was outgained on the season and outscored on the season last year! That's not an 11-5 team. That's a lucky 7-9 team. In five of their seven losses, including their one and done playoffs game, they were outscored by 108 points! The offense was indeed better, but not by as much as it looked, as the Colts topped the 30-point mark just o nce. So, Indy comes into 2013 overrated. Oakland finished just 4-12, but there were positive signs late in the season. The defense was in shambles at mid season, going through a four-game stretch of allowing 42.3 points per game. They improved upon that to finish the season with their last five games allowing just 17.4 ppg. The Raiders have a new offensive coordinator, and he vows to turn Darren McFadden free and grind games out, which will enhance their opportunity to stay competitive. Oakland has improved defensively, at least on paper, with the addition of three CBs and a savvy veteran safety in Charles Woodson, who has a nose for the ball. Overall, this Indianapolis team was not as good as they appeared to be a year ago, and Oakland is certainly capable of staying inside double-digits. Take the points with Oakland. Also grab the UNDER. Indy is also 11-2 to the UNDER in their last 13 at home and as stated, their offense was really mediocre last season. They managed just 21.5 po ints per game last season. In their final four games of the season (including their playoff stinker), the Colts managed just 16.5 points per game. Oakland will look to shorten the game with a lot of Darren McFadden and clock ticking. In their last 36 road games with a total of 46 or higher, the Raiders are 25-11 to the UNDER. Take the points on Oakland and play the UNDER.
Game: Green Bay at San Francisco (Sunday 9/08 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 48.5 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Green Bay Packers posted a 15-1 mark two seasons ago. They took a step backwards last year but still went 11-5. Why the reversion? Aaron Rogers is one of the best QBs in the NFL and will likely go down as an all-time great. But he isn't without issues. His problem continues to be two-fold. The Packers' offensive line is inept, and he hasn't enjoyed the support of a running game in years. While the Pack drafted Franklin and Lacey, neither appeared very effective in the preseason. Without the offensive line to run behind, I don't expect great strides from the running game, at least early on. Despite Rogers' super-human ability, the Packers slipped from 560 points in 2011-12 to 433 a year ago. It is quite possible that there is further erosion this year, unless the Packers suddenly find an offensive line and/or a running game, which is not likely to occur in week one. Especially when facing one of the league's best defenses. Last season San Fr ancisco gave up just 15.8 points per game at home. The Niners never played to a total this high all of last year in 19 games, so game one looks a bit inflated here, especially with a team that is as good defensively as you'll find and offenses that need to shake off a bit of rust. High totals tend to be difficult to topple early in the season, so I look for this one to play UNDER the total.
Game: New York Giants at Dallas (Sunday 9/08 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on New York Giants +3.5 (-105) at TopBet (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
The Dallas Cowboys simply don't produce as a favorite in the Jason Garrett era. Over the past three seasons, this team 12-7 ATS when getting points. But, they are just 6-21 ATS as a favorite including 4-19 ATS when laying a field goal or more. The New York Giants slipped a year ago on defense, which is inexcusable for a team that features Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. They finished 22nd in the league in sacks, allowing the second most yards in the NFL on defense. Those issues look to have been addressed with the addition of seven new defenders. The most influential will be Cullen Jenkins on the defensive line. What the Giants did do last year despite their shortcomings was force 35 turnovers. I look for the addition of Jenkins, and a revived commitment of both Tuck and Paul, to vastly improve the defensive numbers from a year ago. Dallas will turn over the play calling duties to Bill Callahan which could change the pass-happy Dallas offense. A year ago America's team threw the ball the second most in the league - over 66% of the time. That didn't work out too well. And the Cowboys defense last season was bad, allowing 25 points per game (27.7 in home games and 28.0 in division contests). The Giants are 57-37 ATS in their last 94 games as a road dog of 7 or less. And under Tom Coughlin they are 37-23 ATS overall as a dog. And in the Coughlin era, the G-Men are 67-47 ATS vs. NFC opponents. Compare that to Garrett's 9-21 ATS mark in NFC conference games and 4-12 ATS mark in division games. Take the Giants plus the points here.
Important legal note: These picks constitute copyrighted material. Sharing them with others (including posting on the Internet) is illegal and is a violation of our terms. Sharing them with people who have not paid for them will result in immediate termination of your subscription without refund. Please respect our request to keep these picks to yourself. Thanks in advance.
