[h=1]Matt Cronin's Day 14 picks[/h]
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By Matt Cronin
Saturday, September 7, 2013
WOMEN’S FINAL
No. 1 Serena Williams vs. No. 2 Victoria Azarenka
Real rivalries only come about when both players are having a modicum of success against the other. Serena vs. Vika did not begin to become a legitimate rivalry until the Belarusian won the Doha final in February, as before then, the American had won 11 of their 12 matches. Azarenka had played her extremely tough in the final of the 2012 US Open and actually served for the contest at 5-3 in the third set, yet she still couldn't pull off the victory because she was lacking confidence against one of the all-time greats.
As mentioned, that turned in Doha, when Azarenka was able to deliver her money shots at crunch time. Later in the year Williams crunched her on clay in the final of Rome in May, but when they played last month on hard courts in the Cincinnati final, it was Azarenka once again who played more courageously and accurately in winning the third set tiebreaker.
Serena still owns their head-to-head matchup at 12-3, with Azarenka winning two of out of her last three contests against the 31-year-old this year. That recent success means a lot to her, and to the sport in general: Finally, Serena has a real newer generation rival.
It's easy to be blinded by Williams’ excellent play during certain stages of tournaments and assume that she will always play that well; that the level of competition is so far below her that even if she plays badly, she can win. Yes, when she’s in the zone she’s almost untouchable. But her losses to
Sloane Stephens in Australia and to
Sabine Lisicki at Wimbledon are proof enough that she can beaten by very good player.
Serena's two losses to the 24-year-old challenger to her US Open title this year show -- as her own coach Patrick Mouratoglou said -- that Azarenka is a very legitimate No. 2.
This is a very complicated match to call because both bring so many positives to the table, so it is unlikely that one or two factors will make the difference. Azarenka is a slightly better defender and, at least in the last year, has had the slight edge in baseline rallies. Serena has a far better first and second serve, is a deeper on-court thinker and more accomplished match manager. They both return viciously and extremely well. Azarenka has been more willing to come to net this season and is becoming an excellent volleyer. Serena has better touch and is more accurate when playing the tight angles.
This contest should be very close, but could get away from Azarenka if she doesn't find a way to spot her serves accurately. It’s hard to remember a time during the past two years when the two-time Australian Open champion has served worse than during this fortnight. She’s been grabbing wins on heart and a searing attack from inside the baseline. If she doesn’t serve well against Serena, she has no chance -- she can’t be broken multiple times like she has in her previous matches and expect to break the world’s most feared and accurate server the same number of times.
Serena is going to be quite upset if she doesn't come away with her fifth US Open title and second major of the year, so she will be very focused and put every ounce of energy into the match. But my gut tells me that Vika is going to bring her A-plus game, defend like a demon, turn defense to offense in a blink of an eye and wear Serena down. This match is pretty much a “pick ‘em,” but I’ll take the apple of pop star RedFoo's eye to win the contest deep in the third set over Williams and capture her first US Open title.