SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +1.48 over BOSTON
Hiroki Kuroda has been very sharp recently and is coming off back-to-back starts in which he did not allow a single run. He threw a seven-inning gem at home against the Cardinals and then threw a five-inning beauty in Cincinnati. In that last game in Cinci, Kuroda started the game and then there was a 2½-hour rain delay after the third inning, yet he still came back and was just as sharp. In his last two starts he’s struck out 14 while walking just three. Clay Buchholz has a 2.67 ERA and nine wins despite displaying pedestrian skills. His walk/SO ratio (34/58) is not strong and his strand rate is an unsustainable 80%. The mediocre 38%/23% quality start/average start here further illustrates that Buchholz has not been ace-caliber despite the appealing surface stats, which may be ripe for a correction. The Red Sox are hot but the Dodgers are still a quality team that can do a lot of damage against pitchers that aren’t sharp, especially right-handers. Play: Los Angeles +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +2.10 over PHILADLEPHIA
Despite Roy Halliday going, the Twins are too high a price here to pass up on. Halliday needs no introduction, as he’s been as good as any pitcher in the league over the past decade. However, he could be feeling fatigue in his arm due to a ton of innings, the heat and a ton of pitches that he throws each game. In three June starts, Halliday is 1-2 and has a BAA of .286. Halliday has thrown 441 pitches over his last four games and he also had a game recently in which he threw 132 pitches. His two games this season against AL clubs, he allowed six earned runs in both of them. San Fran, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Colorado all had 10 hits against him recently and frankly, he’s been way more hittable this year than in previous years and could get lit up again today by a strong offense that has seen him plenty of times. Carl Pavano is getting stronger with each passing month. His BAA in June is just .235. He also has pinpoint control as evidenced by 14 walks all year in 87.1 frames. And lastly, over the past 12 games, the Twins are batting a combined .292 while the Phillies are hitting 40 points lower at .252. Win or lose, the huge value is on the visitor. Play: Minnesota +2.10 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.69 over ATLANTA
Kyle Davis is not going to dazzle anyone and he could easily get lit up here. His skills have been spiraling out of control and he might even lose his spot in the rotation. Thing is, the Royals are 7-6 when he starts and he seems to always get a lot of run support. Also note the Braves are off on Monday and this is a day game after a night game and in this heat it will give Booby Cox an opportunity to rest a couple of players so that they’ll get two days off instead of one. Of bigger note, however, is that Kenshin Kawakami is winless (0-9) and that plays on one’s mind. The Braves are just 3-10 when he starts and the Royals are very capable of matching the Braves run for run. Kawakami’s numbers are below average right across the board. He’s very likely to give up four, five or six runs. Psychologically, he must feel like that first win is near impossible and if the Royals get to him early he instantly becomes more fragile than he already is. The tag here on Kawakami is simply ridiculous, as the Royals most certainly have a good chance to win. Play: Kansas City +1.69 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.04 over ST. LOUIS
This isn’t Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter that the A’s will face. What we have here is the most overrated team in the majors with Jeff Suppan going laying a price, albeit a small one, against a quality pitcher in Trevor Cahill. The Brewers released Suppan and that’s equivalent to being the 11th man on the New Jersey Nets bench. In true Cardinal tradition, they picked up another pitcher off the scrap heap and are looking to work another miracle. It’s unlikely to happen with Suppan. Suppan last compiled an ERA under 4.50 in 2003. His BAA this season before being released was .372 and he also had a WHIP of 1.94. There is nothing to like about the Cardinals other than Albert Pujols and there’s less to like about Suppan. The Cardinals are 38-30 and they’ve had the easiest schedule in the league by far. Its recent string of opponents has been Seattle, Arizona, a sinking Reds squad, Milwaukee, the Cubbies, San Diego, Houston and Pittsburgh. They are never to be trusted when anyone not named Wainwright or Carpenter is going and you can triple that with Suppan going. We could give you all kinds of stats on Cahill but does it really matter? Any tag against Suppan and the Cards is one to seriously consider. Play: Oakland +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Baltimore +1.50 over SAN DIEGO
The O’s are a complete dumpster fire but they’re still going to win about 40% of its remaining games and those wins have to come from somewhere. What I do know is the Jon Garland should never be –1.60 favorite over anyone because Garland can get lit up anytime by anyone. Current O’s hitters are batting .330 against Garland in 125 career AB’s with Nick Markakis batting .429 and Miguel Tejada batting .406. The bottom line is that Garland is very hittable and has been for years. The gap between Garland’s 3.07 ERA and 4.41 xERA is so large it is unsustainable. Jake Arrieta is not Stephen Strasburgh but in two starts covering 13 frames he’s only allowed seven hits. Those seven hits came against the Yanks and Giants and he’s certainly not taking a step up in class here. The O’s do not have much to look forward to but Arrieta has breathed some life into them when he takes the mound and in fact, they won both his starts thus far and at this price against Garland they absolutely have a chance to complete the trifecta. Play: Baltimore +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
