Dave Essler | MLB Money Line
dime bet 978 MIN (+110) Bookmaker.com vs 977 TEX
Analysis: Classic case of the hot team against the cold team with the now-under rated pitcher in Liriano, and you guys know I love home underdogs. I know that Morneau isn't playing, but he didn't play yesterday, either. Harrison is streaky as hell, and he gave up eight hits in four innings last time out, and apparently he has a kidney stone that hasn't passed. Now that may no be a physical thing, if he's obviously taking the mound, but it has to be in his mind somewhere, I would think.
The Twins are simply playing "Twins" baseball again, and actually have a better winning percentage versus left handed starters than right handed starters. And of late their bullpen has been awesome, with an ERA of well under 2.00 the last week. On the other side, the Texas bullpen has an ERA over 5.00 the last week, and Harrison is still listed as "probable". I probably wouldn't list the pitchers, as anyone that might start.
Texas is simply not the same team away from home, and have lost four of six. The Twins can win their first series in some time today, and I expect that Liriano will pitch well, as his pitch count is down and he's had three straight starts where he didn't allow more than two earned runs. And I don't see anyone (Daivd Murphy is 4-6) up and down the Ranger lineup that's brutalized him.
And this line is just begging for Texas money on the perception that Texas is just that much better and will score two touchdowns. I suppose they well could do that, but as always, unless and until they do I am going to bet on "what have you done for me lately", and that clearly means a home underdog that's playing well get my money. Sometimes it really can be that simple. Let's hope these guys get the memo.
dime bet 978 MIN (+110) Bookmaker.com vs 977 TEX
Analysis: Classic case of the hot team against the cold team with the now-under rated pitcher in Liriano, and you guys know I love home underdogs. I know that Morneau isn't playing, but he didn't play yesterday, either. Harrison is streaky as hell, and he gave up eight hits in four innings last time out, and apparently he has a kidney stone that hasn't passed. Now that may no be a physical thing, if he's obviously taking the mound, but it has to be in his mind somewhere, I would think.
The Twins are simply playing "Twins" baseball again, and actually have a better winning percentage versus left handed starters than right handed starters. And of late their bullpen has been awesome, with an ERA of well under 2.00 the last week. On the other side, the Texas bullpen has an ERA over 5.00 the last week, and Harrison is still listed as "probable". I probably wouldn't list the pitchers, as anyone that might start.
Texas is simply not the same team away from home, and have lost four of six. The Twins can win their first series in some time today, and I expect that Liriano will pitch well, as his pitch count is down and he's had three straight starts where he didn't allow more than two earned runs. And I don't see anyone (Daivd Murphy is 4-6) up and down the Ranger lineup that's brutalized him.
And this line is just begging for Texas money on the perception that Texas is just that much better and will score two touchdowns. I suppose they well could do that, but as always, unless and until they do I am going to bet on "what have you done for me lately", and that clearly means a home underdog that's playing well get my money. Sometimes it really can be that simple. Let's hope these guys get the memo.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets +105 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates rolled a three yesterday but two of those runs came when a ball went off Daniel Murphy’s glove with two outs in the third that should have ended the inning. The Pirates did not score again the rest of the way and overall, they’ve scored just seven runs in their last four games. On June 1, Kevin Correia and Chris Capuano hooked up in N.Y. and Correia and the Bucs won 9-3. However, the Mets carried a 2-0 lead into the seventh and saw enough of Correia to finish him off today. Despite some encouraging early results with the Pirates (3.64 ERA 1.25 WHIP), Correia’s skills are borderline terrible. He rarely strikes out anyone and has been saved by a 28% hit rate. In other words, balls have been put in play and have been hit right at people. His xERA of 4.81 strongly suggests a correction is coming very soon. Chris Capuano is the opposite of Correia in that his xERA of 4.12 is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.86. His 85 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in April and 90 BPV in May suggest his skills have been strong all along, even though his surface stats were terrible in April. In the month of May, Capuano posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Overall he has 54 K’s in 67 IP while walking just 19. He’s a better pitcher than Correia, the Mets offense is also better than the Pirates and the tag here really sweetens the deal. Play: N.Y. Mets +105 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +107 over SAN DIEGO
Prior to this season Tim Stauffer did not pitch more than 83 innings in a single year in the majors over the past five seasons. Last season he appeared in 32 games but only seven as a starter and threw a total of 82.2 innings. This season he’s already thrown 78 innings and he’s showing signs of tiring. Stauffer has not made it out of the sixth inning in three of his last six starts, going 5.1 innings twice and five innings once. Prior to his last start against a Rockies team that had gone 10 straight games without scoring more than three runs, Stauffer had allowed an eye-opening 39 hits and 21 earned runs in 29 frames. For the season, Stauffer has a BAA of .274 and has been hit hard in four of his last six starts. He’s the second best pitcher in this game and it’s not close. Jordan Zimmerman has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and has pitched at least six full innings in all of those starts. He has not walked more than two batters in a game all season and has not walked more than one in four straight. Over his last four starts covering 26.1 frames, Zimmerman has an ERA of 1.71 and a WHIP of 0.93. He’ll now face the lowest scoring team in the majors that has struck out a combined league high 524 times. Play: Washington +107 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +109 over SAN FRANCISCO
How can you not take the Reds here? The Giants have more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie and it’s not getting any better. The Giants lost Freddy Sanchez on Saturday and he was one of the few hitters producing for San Francisco with a .289 BA and 24 RBIs - second-most on the team. Sanchez leaves an already depleted line-up with more holes. The Giants have scored nine runs on their last five games and they rank near the bottom of the league in runs per game (3.5) and batting average (.240). They’ll face Edison Volquez here and the only question about Volquez is his command. If he throws strikes he’s as good as any starter in the league. He has 58 k’s in 58 innings and an outstanding GB profile of 53%. When a team is pressing like the Giants are, they’ll usually help a pitcher out by swinging at stuff out of the strike zone. Besides, Jonathan Sanchez has command issues too and in fact, Sanchez has walked 11 and struck out seven over his last two starts. Additionally, the Reds have owned LHPs this season, battering them to the tune of a .301 BA and .857 OPS (#1 in MLB). So, assuming the pitching match-up is close to equal, the next question is which offense would you rather back? The Giants offense laying a price or the Reds offense taking back one? Play: Cincinnati +109 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +105 over PITTSBURGH
The Pirates rolled a three yesterday but two of those runs came when a ball went off Daniel Murphy’s glove with two outs in the third that should have ended the inning. The Pirates did not score again the rest of the way and overall, they’ve scored just seven runs in their last four games. On June 1, Kevin Correia and Chris Capuano hooked up in N.Y. and Correia and the Bucs won 9-3. However, the Mets carried a 2-0 lead into the seventh and saw enough of Correia to finish him off today. Despite some encouraging early results with the Pirates (3.64 ERA 1.25 WHIP), Correia’s skills are borderline terrible. He rarely strikes out anyone and has been saved by a 28% hit rate. In other words, balls have been put in play and have been hit right at people. His xERA of 4.81 strongly suggests a correction is coming very soon. Chris Capuano is the opposite of Correia in that his xERA of 4.12 is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.86. His 85 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in April and 90 BPV in May suggest his skills have been strong all along, even though his surface stats were terrible in April. In the month of May, Capuano posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Overall he has 54 K’s in 67 IP while walking just 19. He’s a better pitcher than Correia, the Mets offense is also better than the Pirates and the tag here really sweetens the deal. Play: N.Y. Mets +105 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +107 over SAN DIEGO
Prior to this season Tim Stauffer did not pitch more than 83 innings in a single year in the majors over the past five seasons. Last season he appeared in 32 games but only seven as a starter and threw a total of 82.2 innings. This season he’s already thrown 78 innings and he’s showing signs of tiring. Stauffer has not made it out of the sixth inning in three of his last six starts, going 5.1 innings twice and five innings once. Prior to his last start against a Rockies team that had gone 10 straight games without scoring more than three runs, Stauffer had allowed an eye-opening 39 hits and 21 earned runs in 29 frames. For the season, Stauffer has a BAA of .274 and has been hit hard in four of his last six starts. He’s the second best pitcher in this game and it’s not close. Jordan Zimmerman has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and has pitched at least six full innings in all of those starts. He has not walked more than two batters in a game all season and has not walked more than one in four straight. Over his last four starts covering 26.1 frames, Zimmerman has an ERA of 1.71 and a WHIP of 0.93. He’ll now face the lowest scoring team in the majors that has struck out a combined league high 524 times. Play: Washington +107 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +109 over SAN FRANCISCO
How can you not take the Reds here? The Giants have more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie and it’s not getting any better. The Giants lost Freddy Sanchez on Saturday and he was one of the few hitters producing for San Francisco with a .289 BA and 24 RBIs - second-most on the team. Sanchez leaves an already depleted line-up with more holes. The Giants have scored nine runs on their last five games and they rank near the bottom of the league in runs per game (3.5) and batting average (.240). They’ll face Edison Volquez here and the only question about Volquez is his command. If he throws strikes he’s as good as any starter in the league. He has 58 k’s in 58 innings and an outstanding GB profile of 53%. When a team is pressing like the Giants are, they’ll usually help a pitcher out by swinging at stuff out of the strike zone. Besides, Jonathan Sanchez has command issues too and in fact, Sanchez has walked 11 and struck out seven over his last two starts. Additionally, the Reds have owned LHPs this season, battering them to the tune of a .301 BA and .857 OPS (#1 in MLB). So, assuming the pitching match-up is close to equal, the next question is which offense would you rather back? The Giants offense laying a price or the Reds offense taking back one? Play: Cincinnati +109 (Risking 2 units).
Hot pitchers
-- Hand lost his first start 1-0, allowing one run in six IP.
-- Correia is 3-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Hanson is 2-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Marcum is 2-1, 2.38 in his last five starts. Westbrook is 4-0, 2.90 in his last five starts.
-- Jimenez has a 1.13 RA in his last couple starts. RDe la Rosa won his first big league start, allowing one run in five IP at Philly.
-- Zimmerman is 2-2, 2.05 in his last four starts. Stauffer is 2-1, 3.60 in his last three starts.
-- JSanchez is 1-1, 3.09 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 6-1, 2.60 in his last nine starts.
-- Lester has a 6.17 RA in his last six starts, but Boston won eight of his last ten starts, scoring 76 runs.
-- FGarcia is 2-3, 5.60 in his last five starts.
-- Matusz is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts this season.
-- Humber is 3-0, 2.72 in his last six starts. Moscoso is 2-1, 3.38 in his three starts for the A's.
-- Liriano has a 2.00 RA in his last three starts. Harrison is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three outings.
-- Chatwood is 1-1, 3.29 in his last four starts.
Cold pitchers
-- DHudson has a 5.85 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona is 7-2 in his last nine outings.
-- Capuano is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Oswalt is 0-4, 4.22 in his last six starts. DDavis is 0-5, 7.88 in five starts for the Cubs.
-- Myers is 1-5, 4.23 in his last eight starts.
-- Volquez has an 8.83 RA in his last four road starts.
-- FHernandez is 2-3, 4.17 in his last six starts.
-- Drabek is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
-- Tomlin is 1-2, 8.00 in his last three starts.
-- Tampa Bay lost last five WDavis starts (0-3, 7.53).
-- Mazzaro is 0-1, 8.00 in his last couple starts.
Totals
-- Over is 11-4 in Mets' last fifteen road games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Cubs' last twelve games.
-- DHudson's last three starts went over the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Atlanta road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven games at Miller Park stayed under the total.
-- Over is 11-3-2 in last sixteen games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 13-7 in last twenty games at Petco Park.
-- Under is 16-4 in San Francisco's last twenty home games.
-- Six of last eight Seattle road games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last eleven Boston games went over the total, as did the last seven Lester starts.
-- Five of last seven games at Camden Yards stayed under total.
-- Over is 9-4 in Cleveland's last thirteen road games.
-- Nine of White Sox' last thirteen home games went over the total.
-- Five of Twins' last six home games went over the total.
-- Seven of Kansas City's last eight road games went over the total.
Hot Teams
-- Phillies won nine of their last thirteen home games.
-- Mets won six of their last nine games. Pirates won seven of eleven.
-- Braves won eight of their last ten road games.
-- Milwaukee won 16 of its last 21 games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won ten of their last eleven road games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Tampa Bay won four of its last five games. Orioles won five of their last seven games.
-- Twins won eight of their last ten games. Texas won six of its last eight road games.
-- White Sox are 10-5 in their last fifteen home games.
-- Detroit won ten of its last thirteen games. Mariners are 8-1 in games after their last nine losses.
Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games, allowing 31 runs. Marlins lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs lost 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Cardinals lost three of their last four games.
-- Washington lost 10 of its last 15 road games. Padres lost three of last four games overall.
-- Colorado lost 14 of its last 21 games. Dodgers are 5-8 in their last 13 road games.
-- Reds lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Blue Jays are 4-7 in their last eleven games.
-- Indians lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Oakland lost 11 of its last 12 games.
-- Angels lost six of their last seven games. Royals lost seven of ten.
Umpires
-- Chi-Phil-- Seven of eight Porter games stayed under the total.
-- NY-Pitt-- Underdogs are 8-4 in last dozen Davidson games.
-- Atl-Hst-- Seven of last nine Emmel games stayed under total.
-- Az-Fla-- Nine of last eleven Hoye games stayed under total.
-- StL-Mil-- Home team won seven of last nine Fletcher games; three of his last four games went over the total.
-- LA-Col-- Favorites won five of last six Hudson games, with last three going over the total.
-- Wsh-SD-- Over is 9-1-2 in Barry's games behind the plate.
-- Cin-SF-- Four of last five Estabrook games went over the total.
-- Clev-NY-- Seven of last nine Bucknor games stayed under total.
-- Bos-Tor-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Kellogg games.
-- Tex-Minn-- Four of last five Eddings games stayed under total.
-- TB-Balt-- Seven of last nine Wolf games stayed under the total.
-- Sea-Det-- Three of last four Tumpane games went over the total.
-- A's-Chi-- Road team won four of last five Rapuano games.
-- KC-LA-- Six of last eight Gibson games stayed under the total.
-- Hand lost his first start 1-0, allowing one run in six IP.
-- Correia is 3-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Hanson is 2-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Marcum is 2-1, 2.38 in his last five starts. Westbrook is 4-0, 2.90 in his last five starts.
-- Jimenez has a 1.13 RA in his last couple starts. RDe la Rosa won his first big league start, allowing one run in five IP at Philly.
-- Zimmerman is 2-2, 2.05 in his last four starts. Stauffer is 2-1, 3.60 in his last three starts.
-- JSanchez is 1-1, 3.09 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 6-1, 2.60 in his last nine starts.
-- Lester has a 6.17 RA in his last six starts, but Boston won eight of his last ten starts, scoring 76 runs.
-- FGarcia is 2-3, 5.60 in his last five starts.
-- Matusz is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts this season.
-- Humber is 3-0, 2.72 in his last six starts. Moscoso is 2-1, 3.38 in his three starts for the A's.
-- Liriano has a 2.00 RA in his last three starts. Harrison is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three outings.
-- Chatwood is 1-1, 3.29 in his last four starts.
Cold pitchers
-- DHudson has a 5.85 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona is 7-2 in his last nine outings.
-- Capuano is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Oswalt is 0-4, 4.22 in his last six starts. DDavis is 0-5, 7.88 in five starts for the Cubs.
-- Myers is 1-5, 4.23 in his last eight starts.
-- Volquez has an 8.83 RA in his last four road starts.
-- FHernandez is 2-3, 4.17 in his last six starts.
-- Drabek is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
-- Tomlin is 1-2, 8.00 in his last three starts.
-- Tampa Bay lost last five WDavis starts (0-3, 7.53).
-- Mazzaro is 0-1, 8.00 in his last couple starts.
Totals
-- Over is 11-4 in Mets' last fifteen road games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Cubs' last twelve games.
-- DHudson's last three starts went over the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Atlanta road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven games at Miller Park stayed under the total.
-- Over is 11-3-2 in last sixteen games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 13-7 in last twenty games at Petco Park.
-- Under is 16-4 in San Francisco's last twenty home games.
-- Six of last eight Seattle road games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last eleven Boston games went over the total, as did the last seven Lester starts.
-- Five of last seven games at Camden Yards stayed under total.
-- Over is 9-4 in Cleveland's last thirteen road games.
-- Nine of White Sox' last thirteen home games went over the total.
-- Five of Twins' last six home games went over the total.
-- Seven of Kansas City's last eight road games went over the total.
Hot Teams
-- Phillies won nine of their last thirteen home games.
-- Mets won six of their last nine games. Pirates won seven of eleven.
-- Braves won eight of their last ten road games.
-- Milwaukee won 16 of its last 21 games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won ten of their last eleven road games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Tampa Bay won four of its last five games. Orioles won five of their last seven games.
-- Twins won eight of their last ten games. Texas won six of its last eight road games.
-- White Sox are 10-5 in their last fifteen home games.
-- Detroit won ten of its last thirteen games. Mariners are 8-1 in games after their last nine losses.
Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games, allowing 31 runs. Marlins lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs lost 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine home games.
-- Cardinals lost three of their last four games.
-- Washington lost 10 of its last 15 road games. Padres lost three of last four games overall.
-- Colorado lost 14 of its last 21 games. Dodgers are 5-8 in their last 13 road games.
-- Reds lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Blue Jays are 4-7 in their last eleven games.
-- Indians lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Oakland lost 11 of its last 12 games.
-- Angels lost six of their last seven games. Royals lost seven of ten.
Umpires
-- Chi-Phil-- Seven of eight Porter games stayed under the total.
-- NY-Pitt-- Underdogs are 8-4 in last dozen Davidson games.
-- Atl-Hst-- Seven of last nine Emmel games stayed under total.
-- Az-Fla-- Nine of last eleven Hoye games stayed under total.
-- StL-Mil-- Home team won seven of last nine Fletcher games; three of his last four games went over the total.
-- LA-Col-- Favorites won five of last six Hudson games, with last three going over the total.
-- Wsh-SD-- Over is 9-1-2 in Barry's games behind the plate.
-- Cin-SF-- Four of last five Estabrook games went over the total.
-- Clev-NY-- Seven of last nine Bucknor games stayed under total.
-- Bos-Tor-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Kellogg games.
-- Tex-Minn-- Four of last five Eddings games stayed under total.
-- TB-Balt-- Seven of last nine Wolf games stayed under the total.
-- Sea-Det-- Three of last four Tumpane games went over the total.
-- A's-Chi-- Road team won four of last five Rapuano games.
-- KC-LA-- Six of last eight Gibson games stayed under the total.
