WUNDERDOG (MLB)
1 OF 11
Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 8.5 +100
The Rays sit atop the AL East despite a horrific offense at home. They are averaging just 2.9 runs per game here, but have managed to produce a .500 record despite the lack of offense. They are doing it thanks to a defense that has kept opponents to just 3.3 runs per game in this ballpark and 3.4 per game overall. In their last seven games, the Rays are opponents to 2.6 runs per game. That spells trouble for the Orioles who manage only 3.8 per game on the road and 2.9 per game over their last seven. Over the past two seasons, the O's are 70-51 UNDER vs. winning teams and 46-24 vs. AL teams allowing less than 4.3 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 16-2 UNDER this season at home as a favorite! Finally, Baltimore is 13-1 UNDER in dome games since last season.
This one finishes UNDER.
1 OF 11
Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 8.5 +100
The Rays sit atop the AL East despite a horrific offense at home. They are averaging just 2.9 runs per game here, but have managed to produce a .500 record despite the lack of offense. They are doing it thanks to a defense that has kept opponents to just 3.3 runs per game in this ballpark and 3.4 per game overall. In their last seven games, the Rays are opponents to 2.6 runs per game. That spells trouble for the Orioles who manage only 3.8 per game on the road and 2.9 per game over their last seven. Over the past two seasons, the O's are 70-51 UNDER vs. winning teams and 46-24 vs. AL teams allowing less than 4.3 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 16-2 UNDER this season at home as a favorite! Finally, Baltimore is 13-1 UNDER in dome games since last season.
This one finishes UNDER.
Bill Marzano
Miami at Chicago
Pick: Under 181.5
I really like the total in this basketball game and I think it will play Under the posted 191.5 points...both these teams have plenty of scorers on the floor but these were two of the best defensive teams in the league...the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago and 10-3 in the last 13 meetings...look for a low scoring game 1...Under 181.5 is the play.
Miami at Chicago
Pick: Under 181.5
I really like the total in this basketball game and I think it will play Under the posted 191.5 points...both these teams have plenty of scorers on the floor but these were two of the best defensive teams in the league...the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago and 10-3 in the last 13 meetings...look for a low scoring game 1...Under 181.5 is the play.
Nite Owl Sports
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder - Sunday May 15, 2011 3:30 pm
2 units TOTAL: Over 191 (-110)
We could not help but notice the huge drop in scoring in this series after games one and two (featuring 213 and 215 total points each) in OKC, with the OT game 3 in Memphis featuring just 194 total points in game 4, with 172 of them in regulation time, followed by a 3 OT thriller with a bushel of points (256 to be exact), but just 190 of them in regulation, and then that lop-sided 171 point game 5, where the Griz (physically and emotionally “spent” after their 3 OT loss in game 4) looked like the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight, and finally the 178 point game 6, where O kie star Kevin Durant was the guy that couldn’t shoot straight, having what was probably his worst game this season, scoring just 11 points on horrible shooting and shot selection (4-16 overall and 1-9 from behind the arc). But while the “betting public” has been lining up like sheep to play the under in this game, and has bet down the total from the opening line of 193 posted by the line makers to a very beatable 191, we believe the odds are quite slim that Durant, playing at home, will have a shooting day anything like game 6, or that the energized and confident Griz will lay anywhere near the number of “bricks” that they did in game 5 at Okie. Moreover, the OVER has the following general support, not to mention the fact that four of the five games between these two in OKC (the site of today’s game) have gone Over, with all four of those Overs having exceeded 205 total points -- the Griz is 30-19 to the OVER vs > .500 teams, and th ese two teams combine for (i) 46-38 to the OVER when the Griz is off a victory (29-24) and Okie is off a loss (17-14) and (ii) even more significantly, 58-43 to the OVER, with an average of 202.5 total ppg, when they have played on one day’s rest, as they both are here.
We also checked the ref assignments for today’s game, and while one of the refs (Steve Jaffe) trends towards the Under, which has gone 31-22 (including 14-9 in the games where the line has been between 185 and 194.5 like it is for this game) in the 53 games TY in which he has been part of the officiating crew, and those games have averaged a low 191 total ppg, that’s not enough to keep us off the Over here, with neither of the other two refs having any strong totals tendencies either way.
So based on the above support and the fact that the betting public (or “masses of asses” as we call them) has given the OVER great value in this g ame, we’ll do two units on the full game Over 191, but we won’t go crazy with this pick (note we have a few larger and stronger picks today, both on this game and the late game between Miami and Chicago
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder - Sunday May 15, 2011 3:30 pm
2 units TOTAL: Over 191 (-110)
We could not help but notice the huge drop in scoring in this series after games one and two (featuring 213 and 215 total points each) in OKC, with the OT game 3 in Memphis featuring just 194 total points in game 4, with 172 of them in regulation time, followed by a 3 OT thriller with a bushel of points (256 to be exact), but just 190 of them in regulation, and then that lop-sided 171 point game 5, where the Griz (physically and emotionally “spent” after their 3 OT loss in game 4) looked like the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight, and finally the 178 point game 6, where O kie star Kevin Durant was the guy that couldn’t shoot straight, having what was probably his worst game this season, scoring just 11 points on horrible shooting and shot selection (4-16 overall and 1-9 from behind the arc). But while the “betting public” has been lining up like sheep to play the under in this game, and has bet down the total from the opening line of 193 posted by the line makers to a very beatable 191, we believe the odds are quite slim that Durant, playing at home, will have a shooting day anything like game 6, or that the energized and confident Griz will lay anywhere near the number of “bricks” that they did in game 5 at Okie. Moreover, the OVER has the following general support, not to mention the fact that four of the five games between these two in OKC (the site of today’s game) have gone Over, with all four of those Overs having exceeded 205 total points -- the Griz is 30-19 to the OVER vs > .500 teams, and th ese two teams combine for (i) 46-38 to the OVER when the Griz is off a victory (29-24) and Okie is off a loss (17-14) and (ii) even more significantly, 58-43 to the OVER, with an average of 202.5 total ppg, when they have played on one day’s rest, as they both are here.
We also checked the ref assignments for today’s game, and while one of the refs (Steve Jaffe) trends towards the Under, which has gone 31-22 (including 14-9 in the games where the line has been between 185 and 194.5 like it is for this game) in the 53 games TY in which he has been part of the officiating crew, and those games have averaged a low 191 total ppg, that’s not enough to keep us off the Over here, with neither of the other two refs having any strong totals tendencies either way.
So based on the above support and the fact that the betting public (or “masses of asses” as we call them) has given the OVER great value in this g ame, we’ll do two units on the full game Over 191, but we won’t go crazy with this pick (note we have a few larger and stronger picks today, both on this game and the late game between Miami and Chicago
