SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +113 over CHICAGO
The Heat have two of the best offensive players in the world, but more importantly, both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are steadily peaking at exactly the right time. The task of dealing with a talent like Wade or James alone requires constant help, communication and double or triple-teams, and can be a daunting task for even the best defense. But containing both at once is something that is beyond Chicago's capability, and one of the key reasons the Heat will win one of the first two games and subsequently put away the Bulls. It's no secret the Bulls' approach begins and ends with Derrick Rose's playmaking and penetration. His ability to get in the lane creates a plethora of scoring opportunities for himself and others. However, this isn’t the Hawks or Pacers. The Heat are terribly hard to defend when they've got it going. Lately both LeBron and Wade have been on fire. You have to pick your poison and need to play a near perfect game to beat them. Miami is everything expected and then some. They’re getting stronger with each passing quarter. The Heat are –190 to win the series, which strongly suggest that they’re almost certain to win one of the first two games in Chicago. That provides us with a great opportunity to play them in game one and come back with them in game two should they lose the opener. Play: Miami +113 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –118 over NEW YORK
Rarely will you see us lay anything close to this in a baseball game but this one warrants it because the Red Sox, although favored, are undervalued here. The Yanks are reeling. They’ve lost four in a row, eight of 11 and they’ve lost to a lot of poor pitchers recently. They’ve also lost the first two games of this series and have been outscored 11-4. The last two pitchers the Yanks beat were Dave Bush and Kyle Davies and that pair couldn’t crack the line-up of most farm teams, let alone major league teams and now the Yanks will face one of the best lefties in the game in Jon Lester. All of Lester’s skills are tremendous. He’s whiffed 51 batters in 52 IP. His GB rate of 55% is among the best in the league and he has registered back-to-back seasons with sub-3.25 xERA. The man is the straight goods facing a Yanks lineup that features no .300 hitters and a bunch of aging vets batting around the .240 to .250 mark. Freddy Garcia has a 2.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. With an average fastball velocity of 87 MPH, his room for error is razor thin. His out pitch has been a split-finger fastball, which he is throwing in place of some change-ups. Once batters start making him throw that pitch for strikes, his current ERA is sure to spike. It's a real tribute to Garcia that he came back from three straight years of injury to post a near- full season at age 34. However, he's now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and his numbers to date are in for a big regression. The Red Sox have underachieved at the plate but they’re also the most potentially explosive club in the majors and frankly, this is a complete mismatch, both on the mound and at the dish. Play: Boston –118 (Risking 2.36 units to win 2).
San Jose +148 over VANCOUVER (Series)
The first thing to note here is the price on the Sharks, which is an overlay to be sure when you consider that they disposed of two dangerous clubs in Los Angeles and Detroit. Yeah, it took seven games to beat the Red Wings but after facing Zetterberg and Datsyuk, facing the Sedin twins is not a bigger challenge. Ryan Kesler is another big threat but after that production drops off dramatically. Let’s also not forget that the Sharkies were up 3-0 on Detroit and 3-1 in game five and were 17 minutes away from a five-game series win. The Canucks beat a Blackhawks team that backed into the playoffs on the final night of the regular season. The Canucks were up 3-0 but they also were blown out twice in that series. They then played a Preds team, whose leading scorer during the year had 23 goals. Vancouver dominated play for the most part but their inability to put the Preds away on a few occasions is troubling and so was that game five loss at home. Vancouver has really not been that impressive. Roberto Luongo could be in for a tough series. The Sharks can snipe with the best of them and we saw what the Blackhawks did to Luongo when they barraged him with shots. Hell, the Canucks even sat him for a game in that crucial game six before coming back to him in game 7. That’s how much confidence they had in Luongo so why should we have confidence? The Canucks had a great regular season but the post season is a different animal. Vancouver has been just good enough to win thus far against two beatable teams but they certainly have not been great. The Sharks have been. They withstood a charge from an outstanding Red Wings club. They dominated Detroit for long stretches and while the Canucks have home ice, we really don’t care. San Jose has shown they can beat anyone and win anywhere. They’re the better team with a better defense, better offense and a better goaltender. The fact that we get a take-back of almost 7½-5 sweetens the deal. This is the biggest series overlay of the playoffs thus far. Play: San Jose +148 to win series (Risking 3 units).