Service Plays Sunday 5/15/11

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Sunday, May 15

Hot pitchers
-- Wood is 1-0, 1.42 in his last couple starts.
-- Marquis is 2-0, 1.13 in two home starts.
-- Halladay is 3-1, 1.65 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum has a 1.23 RA in his last three starts and has streak of 17 consecutive scoreless IP. Zambrano is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Correia is 5-0, 2.08 in five road starts; visitor has won all eight of his starts this season.
-- Capuano has a 2.25 RA in his last three starts.
-- Hammel is 2-1, 1.95 in his last four starts.
-- Kennedy is 2-0, 1.50 in his last five starts. Lilly is 2-1, 2.84 in his last three home starts.

-- Indians are 4-0 in Tomlin's home starts (3-0, 2.88). Pineda is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts.
-- Scherzer is 5-0, 2.38 in his last seven starts.
-- Arrieta is 3-0, 2.38 in his last five starts.
-- Cahill is 5-0, 1.03 in his last five starts. Buehrle has a 2.08 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lester is 4-0, 2.51 in his last five starts. Garcia is 2-2, 2.40 in his five starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Carpenter has a 5.85 RA in his last three starts.
-- Vazquez is 1-2, 7.33 in his last five starts.
-- Hudson is 2-3, 4.43 in his last six starts.
-- Greinke is 1-1, 6.30 in two starts this season.
-- ARodriguez is 0-1, 4.50 in two starts this season.
-- Latos is 0-5, 6.21 in six starts this season.

-- Davies is 0-4, 7.40 in his last four starts.
-- Sonnanstine allowed two runs in 3.1 IP (68 PT) in his first '11 start.
-- Duensing has a 2.73 RA in his last four starts. Morrow is 1-2, 4.71 in his four starts this season.
-- Santana is 1-3, 6.67 in his last five starts. Wilson is 1-2, 3.93 in his last three outings.

Totals
-- Three of Cubs' last four games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Florida road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Cincinnati home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta home games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Houston games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-4 in last twelve games at Miller Park.
-- Last four Hammel starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-1-3 in last fourteen Arizona games.

-- Over is 10-2-1 in Cleveland's last thirteen home games. Six of last eight Seattle games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of Royals' last ten games stayed under the total.
-- All five Garcia starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Four of Angels' last six games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Minnesota home games went over the total.
-- Four of White Sox last five games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
-- Marlins are 9-4 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Cincinnati won eight of its last ten games.
-- Phillies are 10-5 in their last fifteen games. Atlanta won seven of its last ten home games.
-- Mets won six of their last nine games.
-- In their last four games, Padres have scored 24 runs in innings 7-9.
-- Brewers won 12 of their last 17 home games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last six games.

-- Indians won 15 of their last 17 home games.
-- Detroit won its last seven games, scoring 49 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games. Orioles won four of their last five games.
-- Toronto won its last four games, scoring 21 runs.
-- Angels are 12-5 in their last 17 road games.
-- Oakland is 9-4 in its last 13 home games. White Sox won five of their last seven games overall.
-- Red Sox won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Cardinals lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs are 4-10 in their last fourteen home games.
-- Washington lost its last three games.
-- Astros lost five of their last seven games.
-- Rockies lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Pirates lost their last four games, scoring seven runs; they're 2-30 in last 32 games at Miller Park.
-- Arizona lost six of its last eight games.

-- Mariners lost their last six games, scoring fifteen runs, losing three games they led in last inning.
-- Royals lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Rangers lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Minnesota lost its last seven games, allowing 43 runs.
-- Bronx lost four in row, eight of last eleven games.

Umpires
-- Fla-Wsh-- Seven of last eight Demuth games went over the total.
-- Phil-Atl-- /Road team won four of last five Emmel games.
-- SD-Colo-- Four of last five Meals games went over the total.
-- NY-Hst-- Underdogs are 4-3 with Fairchild behind the plate/
-- Pitt-Mil-- Conroy is a rookie umpire; I have no numbers on him.
-- StL-Cin-- Road team won five of last six TWelke games.
-- Az-LA-- Gonzalez is a rookie umpire; I have no numbers on him.
-- SF-Chi-- Last three Davis games went over the total.

-- Sea-Clev-- Under is 5-2-1 in Diaz games this season.
-- Chi-A's-- Seven of nine Wendelstedt games went over the total.
-- KC-Det-- Over is 5-2-1 in Randazzo games this season.
-- Tor-Min-- Under is 5-2-1 in Carlson games this season.
-- LA-Tex-- Last five Cuzzi games stayed under the total.
-- Balt-TB-- Underdogs won six of last seven Cousins games.
-- Bos-NY-- Underdogs won three of last four Everitt games.
 

lm7

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EXPERT CAPPER WORDPRESS

0-1 (-4.5 units including juice) yesterday

+17.7 units on the season

5/15 MLB:
1* San Francisco Giants (-130)
3*** Colorado Rockies (-130)
1* Cleveland Indians (-130)
1* Toronto Blue Jays (-110)

NBA will be posted closer to gametimes on the website.
 
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CRAIG DAVIS

30 DIME* MLB* Texas Rangers -140 ML
30 DIME* MLB* Detroit Tigers RL +120 ML
20 DIME* MLB* Washington Nationals -112 ML
30 DIME* MLB* Milwaukee Brewers -162 ML
20 DIME* NBA* Miami Heat +2
30 DIME* NBA* Oklahoma City Thunder -6
 

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ULTIMATE SPORTS

1 UNIT* MLB* Saint Louis Cardinals ML
1 UNIT* MLB* Boston Red Sox ML
1 UNIT* MLB* Tampa Bay Rays ML
 

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Soccer Crusher
Play of the Day:

MiltonKeynesDons + PeterboroughUnited OVER 2.5
This match is happening in England
 

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Sunday
Play Colorado (-140) over San Diego (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 3:10 PM EST

Colorado pitcher, Jason Hammel has won 11 of the last 12 home games as a favorite of -125 to -150 and he has an ERA of 2.14 over the last three starts. San Diego pitcher, Mat Latos is 0-5 this season with an ERA of 4.86 and he is 0-1 vs. Colorado over his career with an ERA of 5.40.


Play Detroit (-180) over Kansas City (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:10 PM EST

Detroit has won 10 of the last 11 games and they have also won 51 of the last 76 day home games. Detroit pitcher, Max Scherzer has won 14 of the last 18 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 6-0 this season with an ERA of 3.20.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Play Oakland (-160) over Chicago White Sox (Bonus)
 
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COMPS:

MARC LAWRENCE COMP

Play On: San Francisco w/Lincecum
Note: The Giants and Cubs conclude a three game series when the defending champs send Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum to the mound at Wrigley Park Sunday afternoon. Lincecum takes the mound knowing he is back in great KW form with five walks and 28 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 8-2 in his last 10 road starts and 10-5 in his last 15 starts in May, including 7-2 away. With Lincecum back in his groove, we'll back the Giants here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco


MATT RIVERS COMP

New York has now lost a season-high 4 in a row, and they are on the verge of being swept by their arch-enemy Boston.

Jon Lester has owned the Yankees to a tune of 3-0 the last 3 times he has started against them, but his counterpart Freddy Garcia has been a solid starter for Joe Girardi's team, going 2-2 with an ERA just over 2. Garcia has also won his last 2 decisions versus the Red Sox.

No sweep tonight in the Bronx. Take the Yankees to do some damage control and get off the 4-game slide with the win over the BoSox.
1? N.Y. YANKEES


Dave Cokin

Sunday Bonus Play is the Cardinals


Jack Clayton
Bonus Play

Sport: MLB
Game: D-backs at Dodgers
Pick: Diamondbacks
Reason: The Dodgers are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter, 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 2-5 in Ted Lilly's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. Play the D-Backs!


Scott Spreitzer Comp

ROCKIES

I'm laying the price with the Rockies on Sunday afternoon. Mat Latos continues to struggle as he attempts to regain last season's groove. But one of his main problems has been his drop in velocity regarding his fastball. The shoulder strain may not be fully healed, or maybe last year was a fluke. Either way, Latos is not likely to rebound against the Rockies. The Padre righthander has seen his fastball dip 1.7 mph on average and he's been allowing way too many flyballs...not a good formula for success at Coors Field. Colorado will counter with Jason Hammel. The righty owns a nice 3.02 ERA & 1.25 WHIP so far this season. And I expect Hammel to cool off the suddenly hot Friar bats. Even with SDG's recent run-scoring ability, they're still just 24th in runs per game, 26th in team batting average & HRs, and 27th in OPS. The Rockies are on a 24-9 run in Hammel's last 33 home starts. Meanwhile, you are a red-hot, 13-3 playing against Latos in his last 16 starts. More of the same at Coors. I'm laying the price with Colorado on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott.


Golden contender
Bulls to win series

In the 2010-11 regular season, Chicago finished four games in front of Miami. From 1947 through the 2011 NBA first round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season games, they have posted a 22-7 (.759) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1149 is the 18th best-of-7 playoff series for Miami, and the 44th for Chicago. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, Miami has a 10-7 series record, a 1-2 Semifinals-round series record, and an 8-9 Game 1 record, while Chicago has a 25-18 series record, a 6-4 Semifinals-round record with an active six-series winning streak, and a 22-21 Game 1 record. The Capper is the Bulls 19-1 NBA Series record when having game 1 at home in a playoff series. Miami is 2-5 in all 7 game playoff series when they play game 1 on the road. The Heat have won all 3 games both straight up and against the spread this season. Most importantly in the 3 wins were the edges they had in rebounding 43-33 and free throws. They also shot better from the field, drew more fouls and had the all important free throw edge. Though its true regular season results are no always an indicator of how the teams will play in the playoffs this series seems different in that all the games were close in the regular season decided by 4 points or less which is substantial in that Chicago was able to do enough in crunch time while showing more cohesion than Miami late in the games. Look for the Bulls to win the series in what should be an excellent series.


JIMMY BOYD
Bonus Play

1 Unit on LA Dodgers -102

Even with yesterday's win, the Diamondbacks are still 1-5 in their last 6 overall and 22-57 in their last 79 road games. They are 5-13 in the last 18 meetings with the Dodgers and 7-19 in the last 26 road meetings in this series. Plus, their struggles against lefties gives Ted Lilly the edge on the hill.

The Diamondbacks are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter and an obscene 14-40 in their last 54 road games vs. a southpaw starter.

D-backs starter Ian Kennedy has made 1 start against the Dodgers and it didn't go well. He was rocked for 6 earned in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-5 loss last April. In addition, the Diamondbacks are 0-5 in his last 5 Sunday starts. We'll take the Dodgers at a nice price at home Sunday.


STEVE MERRIL

Detroit Tigers-1½+115

Bonus Play

The Tigers are smoking hot and looking to sweep the Royals with a win on Sunday afternoon. Detroit has won seven straight games and 10 of their last 11 games overall. An eighth straight win should come easily against Kyle Davies and the Royals. The righty is 1-5 with a 7.08 ERA in eight starts. He has given up 14 runs and 23 hits over his last 14.7 innings pitched. Davies lost in Detroit back on April 8th after giving up 5 runs and six hits in 3.7 innings of work. Overall, he is 3-9 with a 5.85 ERA in 13 career starts against the Tigers. Brandon Inge (7-25), Victor Martinez (7-19), Jhonny Peralta (10-22), Miguel Cabrera (10-37), Ryan Raburn (7-14), Brennan Boesch (3-10) and Casper Wells (2-3) smack Davies around. The Tigers are hitting over .295 against the rest of the A.L. Central this season.

Max Scherzer has been great for the Tigers so far, especially at home. In four starts in Comerica Park, Scherzer has given up 3 runs and 21 hits in 28 innings pitched. The righty has won two straight starts beating the Blue Jays and Yankees. Scherzer was on the winning end of that April 8th game after giving up just 1 run and seven hits in six innings of work. Overall, he's 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA in six career starts against Kansas City with most of his success against them coming at home. Wilson Betemit (1-6), Matt Treanor (0-5), Melky Cabrera (1-6), Mike Aviles (1-5), Alcides Escobar (1-4) and Jarrod Dyson (0-3) struggle with the Tigers’ starter. Detroit's bullpen has blown only one save at home and they only have one loss. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offense is struggling right now sporting an average right around .210 while scoring only 25 runs in their last eight games. This game has blowout written all over it so we’ll lay the runs with the Tigers this afternoon.


TOM FREESE COMP

The Yankees are pitching Freddie Garcia tonight vs. Boston. The Yankees are 2-5 their last 7 games off a loss and they are 0-4 their last 4 games on grass. New York is 0-5 vs. a team with a losing record. This not a very good Yankee team. Boston is 19-20. The Red Sox are 43-13 in Jon Lesters last 56 starts with four days of rest. The Red Sox are 49-24 their last 73 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less. Boston is 6-2 in Lesters last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. PLAY ON BOSTON (Lester vs. Garcia)


JEFF BENTON COMP

Now onto Sunday’s baseball freebie, as we’ll back the Marlins in the finale of their weekend series at Washington.

To say that Florida has the Nationals’ number would be an understatement. The Fish have taken the first two meetings of this series 6-5 in extra innings on Friday and 1-0 yesterday; they’ve between Washington three times since last Sunday; and they’re now 46-17 in the last 63 meetings going back three-plus seasons. Florida is also 21-7 in its last 28 games in D.C.

So why are the Nats the slight favorite today? Because starting pitcher Jason Marquis (4-1, 3.66 ERA) has been much more effective this season than the Marlins’ Javier Vazquez (2-3, 6.88). I can’t say much in defense of Vazquez – he’s been flat terrible this season. However, he’s gotten incredible offensive support in his four road starts (26 total runs), and Florida won all four games. Also, the only time he’s pitched at Nationals Ballpark – on Sept. 25, 2009 – Vazquez pitched a complete-game three-hitter, leading the Braves to a 4-1 win.

As for Marquis, I can’t argue with his success this year. All I can say is I’ve watched him pitch many times over the last decade and, well, I’m just not buying it. He’s been a journeyman big-league pitcher for a reason, and I believe a correction is coming. And while Washington is 7-2 in Marquis’ last nine starts, one of the losses was on April 5 in Florida (the Marlins won 3-2). For his career, the right-hander is 5-6 with a 6.36 ERA in 21 games (14 starts) against the Marlins, and he’s yielded a .304 batting average in 93 1/3 innings.

Florida is now 23-15 on the season, including 11-6 as a visitor, while the Nats have fallen three games under .500 at 18-21, splitting 18 games at home, where they bat just .224 as a team.
3? FLORIDA


CHUCK O'BRIEN COMP

Moving on to Sunday’s complimentary baseball selection, go ahead and play the Phillies as a slight road favorite at Atlanta.

Hard to pass up Roy Halladay in virtual pick-em situation, even if he is working on the road and being opposed by an outstanding pitcher in Tim Hudson (just five days matching up against Josh Johnson in Florida). What tilts things in favor of the reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner? The fact he’s 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in three starts against the Braves since being traded to Philadelphia.

Throw in a flawless interleague effort in 2009 when he was with Toronto and pitched in Atlanta – he pitched seven shutout innings but the Blue Jays lost 1-0 – and Halladay has allowed just four runs, 22 hits and five walks while striking out 23 in 32 innings against the Braves. And in two career starts at Turner Field, Halladay has pitched 16 scoreless innings, allowing five hits in each game with a 13-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Although he lost 2-1 to Johnson and the Marlins on Tuesday (yielding just one unearned run on five hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in eight innings) Halladay is still 2-1 with a 1.44 ERA on the road. By comparison, Hudson is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA in five home starts (with the Braves going 2-3). And while Hudson has been solid in two day games (2-0, 1.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, nine strikeouts, one walk), Halladay has been better in four starts under the sun (3-0, 0.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 35 strikeouts, three walks, with the Phillies going 4-0).

Yes, the Braves are 3-0 in Hudson’s last three starts against Philadelphia (all at home, including a 6-3 win on April 8). But in none of those games was Hudson opposing Halladay. And prior to this mini-run, Atlanta had lost four in a row and five of six to the Phillies with Hudson starting. Finally, Philly is on impressive positive streaks of 21-6 when Halladay starts, 18-2 when Halladay faces N.L. East rivals and 57-22 when playing on Sundays.
4? PHILADELPHIA


KARL GARRETT COMP

Comp play winner for Sunday is Houston over the Mets.

Aneury Rodriguez gets this 3rd big league start, and this is not so much a play on him as it is a play against Mets starter Chris Capuano.

Capuano has lost 3 starts in a row since beating the 'Stros back on April 21st, as the southpaw has allowed 8 earned his last 19 innings of work.

The teams have split the first pair of games played this weekend, and Houston has won 3 of the 5 series games played thus far this season.

Gonna back the Astros at home to get some sweet revenge on Capuano.

Houston to take the rubber game.
3? HOUSTON


DEREK MANCINI COMP

For today's Bonus Play I'm looking at the Diamondbacks to build off of that crazy win last night behind another strong start by the red-hot Ian Kennedy (3-1, 3.23 ERA). Kennedy has been nothing short of fantastic over his last 5 starts, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, and I just don't see this struggling Dodgers offense doing anything to change that. Yes, he got tagged for 6 runs in his only start against them last season, but don't let one bad start dissuade you from taking him in this one.

Opposing Kennedy is veteran lefty Ted Lilly (3-3, 4.67 ERA), who's coming off a solid effort against the Pirates (so what?) in his last start. As you can infer from my unenthusiastic attitute towards his last start, I'm not buying what he's selling in this one. True, its coming vs. an equally struggling Arizona offense, but the line in this contest is telling me everything I need to know. We know the Snakes are terrible on the road. We know Lilly is coming off a solid effort. And we know the Dodgers have owned Arizona in the past, and yet we have the Snakes as a small favorites here. You cannot simply attribute that to Kennedy, because if the oddsmakers thought he was going to pitch well again today, they wouldn't have priced him at this number.

Finally, the Dodgers bullpen simply cannot be trusted. Their 5.23 bullpen ERA is good for 3rd worst in the Majors, and has routinely let down one of the more effective starting pitching staffs in the National League. Arizona has had to deal with the opposite effect, struggling starters but a solid bullpen. However, that being said, I don't believe we have to worry about today's starter. Kennedy will help keep this Dodgers offense ice-cold, while the Arizona relievers take care of the rest. Take the Diamondbacks with Kennedy over the Dodgers and Lilly.
2? ARIZONA
 
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COMPS:

EZWINNERS

Oakland A's -122

Oakland's ace starting pitcher Trevor Cahill maintained his perfect record while facing the Rangers on Monday. Cahill tossed seven innings of one-run ball, scattering five hits, walking one and fanning five to improve to 6-0 this season with an ERA of just 1.72. Mark Buehrle gets the start for the White Sox. Buehrle has been inconsistent this season as he is just 2-3 with an ERA of 4.05. Buehrle has also struggled in his career against Oakland posting a 4-13 record against the A's. Oakland is 17-5 in their last twenty two games against a left handed starter. Play on Oakland.


Red Dog Sports

1* NBA Series Play

Miami vs. Chicago

Take the Miami Heat to win the best of seven series that starts on Sunday. Derrick Rose won the MVP in the NBA but the Bulls depend on him so much to score and lead the way. The Heat have two superstars in James and Wade, who will be motivated by facing the reigning MVP. Chris Bosh should contribute points and rebounds too. Wade has already won an NBA title and proven he can play under pressure.Take the Heatles to win the series. Look for Miami to win in six games.


BIG AL

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers

When you look at the two starters in this afternoon's game between the Angels and Rangers, one is a model of consistency while the other is the model of inconsistency. It's the Angels' righthander Ervin Santana that is the latter as you never know what you're going to get when he takes the mound this season. To say the 2011 version of Santana is a bit of an enigma would be a huge understatement, as the veteran has a very nice strikeout rate of 45 in 48 innings, a strong K:B ratio of 3.21 (2nd best of his career) and a competitive 1.32 WHIP (the same as last season). But Santana is just 1-4 in eight starts with an ugly 4.81 ERA and his worst start of the season was right here in Arlington on April 18, and the starter on the other side was the same as this afternoon. If it's consistency you want in a pitcher, then you want the CJ Wilson that has pitched over the past two seasons. Last year, the southpaw went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and so far after eight starts, Wilson is duplicating those numbers. Those aren't the kind of stats that will win you a Cy Young, but they are the type of numbers that will help you return your team to the playoffs and possibly the World Series. The Angels are 2-6 in Santana's last eight starts on grass. Take Texas.
 

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