The Sportsboss-just sent an excellent analyses on the Thunder game today, I copie and pasted below
Just looked at some quick historical stuff on Gm7 in NBA as I watch the Players and found these numbers extremely interesting and almost exactly the opposite of what people would expect.
I looked at the last 5 years - we have had 14 Gm 7's in NBA. Of those 14, 10 were won by home team which probably is not much of a surprise. But what probably is is the margin of victory - on average it was 17.5! Blowout city - only 2 of those 10 were decided by less then 10pts. Even the 4 road teams that won did so by 4,8,9,19 - so of the 14 total Gm7's there were only 3 games decided by less than 8 pts - almost certainly the opposite of what many would expect.
Also looking at totals, there are more clear trends - this I definitely expected. Of those 14 games 5 wound up 202 or higher, 9 of the 14 189 or less was scored - nothing in between 189-202 - thats a massive gap where tons of totals are put - and where the number today is at 193. Whats more, over the last 3 seasons we have only had ONE GAME that wound up over 189 - Celtics first round win in 2009 over the Bulls.
I think the Grizz are the square play of the day (public is more then 50% on MEM every site I am looking at) - and the UNDER is no doubt the sharpest of plays.
I was on the Under before that research and will be on it pretty big - never go huge on totals. And will be on Thunder to pull away late and win this thing by 8+ - sticking with the history we have seen recently.
To summarize:
4* mem/OKC under
3* Thunder
Just looked at some quick historical stuff on Gm7 in NBA as I watch the Players and found these numbers extremely interesting and almost exactly the opposite of what people would expect.
I looked at the last 5 years - we have had 14 Gm 7's in NBA. Of those 14, 10 were won by home team which probably is not much of a surprise. But what probably is is the margin of victory - on average it was 17.5! Blowout city - only 2 of those 10 were decided by less then 10pts. Even the 4 road teams that won did so by 4,8,9,19 - so of the 14 total Gm7's there were only 3 games decided by less than 8 pts - almost certainly the opposite of what many would expect.
Also looking at totals, there are more clear trends - this I definitely expected. Of those 14 games 5 wound up 202 or higher, 9 of the 14 189 or less was scored - nothing in between 189-202 - thats a massive gap where tons of totals are put - and where the number today is at 193. Whats more, over the last 3 seasons we have only had ONE GAME that wound up over 189 - Celtics first round win in 2009 over the Bulls.
I think the Grizz are the square play of the day (public is more then 50% on MEM every site I am looking at) - and the UNDER is no doubt the sharpest of plays.
I was on the Under before that research and will be on it pretty big - never go huge on totals. And will be on Thunder to pull away late and win this thing by 8+ - sticking with the history we have seen recently.
To summarize:
4* mem/OKC under
3* Thunder
O.C. Dooley
2 Units Heat +2
I want to take all of you back to the opening game of the “Miami/Boston” series when it appeared that the Celtics mentally held the upper hand by winning 18 of the past 21 encounters against the Heat. I mentioned in the analysis of that playoff opener that for CONFIDENCE purposes it was vital for Miami to win game-one outright which they did accomplish even though at that point Boston had a healthy Rajon Rondo in the starting lineup. We have almost the same exact situation this evening as Miami who went 0-for-3 against Chicago during the regular season needs to make a statement. Despite the immense talent of the “big three”, Miami during the regular season had problems dealing with teams like Chicago who have the knack of dominating in the rebounding category with a dominant big man. It was due to a huge edge in rebounds why Chicago went 3-0 against Miami during the regular campaign even though those three contests were decided by only a combined EIGHT points on the scoreboard. In those three contests the “big three” of Miami averaged a healthy 56 points, 15 rebounds and 9 assists. I am aware that Chicago is the NBA’s #1 overall seed and that they are coming off a dominant road triumph where they dominated Atlanta, but that “margin” triumph according to my database research is trouble. For the entire season Chicago is a dreadful 1-11 ATS when off a “double-digit” margin of victory on the road. Tonight marks the first time since way back in 1998 that the Bulls have participated in the Eastern Conference Finals and for the most part they have an inexperienced roster and head coach who are not used to the pressure that the postseason brings
2 Units Heat +2
I want to take all of you back to the opening game of the “Miami/Boston” series when it appeared that the Celtics mentally held the upper hand by winning 18 of the past 21 encounters against the Heat. I mentioned in the analysis of that playoff opener that for CONFIDENCE purposes it was vital for Miami to win game-one outright which they did accomplish even though at that point Boston had a healthy Rajon Rondo in the starting lineup. We have almost the same exact situation this evening as Miami who went 0-for-3 against Chicago during the regular season needs to make a statement. Despite the immense talent of the “big three”, Miami during the regular season had problems dealing with teams like Chicago who have the knack of dominating in the rebounding category with a dominant big man. It was due to a huge edge in rebounds why Chicago went 3-0 against Miami during the regular campaign even though those three contests were decided by only a combined EIGHT points on the scoreboard. In those three contests the “big three” of Miami averaged a healthy 56 points, 15 rebounds and 9 assists. I am aware that Chicago is the NBA’s #1 overall seed and that they are coming off a dominant road triumph where they dominated Atlanta, but that “margin” triumph according to my database research is trouble. For the entire season Chicago is a dreadful 1-11 ATS when off a “double-digit” margin of victory on the road. Tonight marks the first time since way back in 1998 that the Bulls have participated in the Eastern Conference Finals and for the most part they have an inexperienced roster and head coach who are not used to the pressure that the postseason brings
